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1.
Forecasting the Conditional Probabilities of Natural Disasters in Canada as a Guide for Disaster Preparedness 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Mohammed H. I. Dore 《Natural Hazards》2003,28(2-3):249-269
A variety of natural disasters occur in Canada. Yet apart from simple ``return period' calculations, no apparent research seems to have made systematic use of the OCIPEP database on all natural disasters in Canada over the period of 1900 to 2000. This paper (a) describes the main characteristics of natural disasters in Canada, and (b) presents a methodology that is a first attempt to use the database to forecast conditional probabilities of each type of natural disaster. The forecast probabilities can then be used to work out the expected social costs of each type of natural disaster. The expected costs in turn suggest what kind of policy priorities are indicated for disaster preparedness. The key results of this methodology are that Hydrometeorological Disasters are increasing over time and of these, the ranking in order of priority for preparedness should be droughts, heat waves, floods and ice storms. 相似文献
2.
Consideration of natural hazards in the design and risk management of industrial facilities 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Recent chemical accidents precipitated by natural disasters have prompted governments in the United States, Japan, and Europe,
among other countries, to re-evaluate current practices in the design and risk management of industrial facilities. This paper
presents an overview of natural hazard design considerations and external events risk management requirements in the industrial
sector, with particular emphasis on industrial practices in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The analysis shows that
although regulations exist to ensure industrial plant structures are built to resist natural hazards (up to the design level),
there are few laws to address the performance of non-structural elements and safety and emergency response measures during
a natural disaster. Laws usually also refer to natural hazards only indirectly, and provisions to prevent or respond to simultaneous
disasters from single or multiple sources concurrent with the natural disaster are usually not present.
相似文献
| Ana Maria CruzEmail: |
3.
论述了自然变异及自然灾害与人类社会的互馈关系 ,探讨了社会条件控制下自然灾害的阶段性特点 ,提出了开展灾害社会学研究的使命。认为自然变异及自然灾害破坏人类社会的健康发展 ,但人类社会并不是完全被动的应付自然变异和自然灾害 ,而是对自然变异及自然灾害作出双向反响。一方面 ,采取科学的社会行为 ,积极抑制灾害活动 ,减轻自然灾害破坏损失 ;另一方面因政治腐败 ,纲纪松弛 ,经济衰退 ,社会混乱 ,或违背自然规律 ,盲目的社会经济活动 ,导致天灾与人祸并行 ,不仅加剧自然灾害 ,甚至导致许多全球性重大环境问题 ,对人类社会造成广泛而深远的影响。自然灾害不仅受自然条件控制 ,而且受人类社会的强烈影响 ,因此自然灾害除伴随自然条件发生复杂的周期性变化外 ,还伴随社会条件发生阶段性变化。自然灾害是一种自然社会现象 ,而且随着人类社会的持续发展 ,自然灾害的社会性越来越强烈。因此 ,在进一步加强灾害的自然科学研究的同时 ,开展社会学研究 ,对于发展灾害理论以及促进减灾事业的发展是十分必要的。 相似文献
4.
地质灾害既具有自然属性,又具有社会属性。而目前国内的有关预警系统仅考虑了自然属性,其作用较之防灾实践的要求仍有不小的差距。因此,建立基于自然-社会地质灾害自然-社会属性规律的区域地质灾害预警与决策支持系统具有重要的现实意义。作者运用GIS等计算机技术,研究了建立基于属性规律的区域地质灾害预警、决策支持系统的任务、作用及结构。并对区域地质灾害预警、决策支持系统开发作了一些理论性的探讨。 相似文献
5.
中国的巨灾风险与巨灾防范 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
巨灾是指对人民生命财产造成特别巨大损失,对社会经济发展产生严重影响的自然灾害事件。我国巨灾主要为特大洪水、大地震以及特大风暴潮、持续性大面积干旱。新中国建立以来,共有18个年份发生巨灾。巨灾频发的根本原因是,自然条件复杂多变,多种异常动力活动强烈;减灾基础薄弱,巨灾防范能力不足。未来时期,巨灾对国家安全和社会经济威胁依然严重,预测有11个高风险区,分布在东部沿海和部分中部地区。巨灾防范对策包括:提高认识、加强研究、建立管理系统及预警系统、制定应急预案、加强国际合作交流等。 相似文献
6.
乌鲁木齐城市灾害特征及减灾对策 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
论述了乌鲁木齐城市灾害的主要类型，特征，成因及经济损益分析，并就减灾问题提出预防对策，乌鲁木齐市地处欧亚大陆的中心，东，南，西三面环山，北面是广阔的冲积平原；复杂的地质，地貌和地形，多变的气候，加上脆弱的生态环境，为各种灾害的发生提供了重要条件，乌鲁木齐每年都不同程度地发生各类灾害，随着城市人必集和社会发展，生命线工程，城市基础设施和社会财富的增加，城市灾害所带来的损失和灾难将会以更大的比例增长，因此，研究如何防御和减轻自然灾害和人为灾害对城市的破坏，已成为一个重大的社会问题。 相似文献
7.
Environmental disasters in social context: toward a preventive and precautionary approach 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Kenneth Hewitt 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(1):3-14
The paper examines relations between natural hazards and social conditions in disaster, and problems of their integration in disaster management. This must be done against a background of ever-increasing numbers of disasters. The initiating roles and impacts of environmental hazards are acknowledged. However, expanding losses are not explained by increased geophysical risks. To the extent that scientific knowledge or engineering and planning skills are involved, the problems seem more one of (in)effective deployment than major deficiencies. Social analyses suggest the scope of today’s disasters follows primarily from greater concentrations of vulnerable people, exposed in dangerous situations, and lacking adequate protections. Firstly, the question of disaster causality is revisited as a problem of damage diagnostics. A basis is developed from the findings of formal disaster inquiries. Despite their limitations, well-conducted inquiries offer unusually comprehensive anatomies of the social and physical conditions of disasters. They demonstrate and trace out the interplay of environmental, societal, technological, and institutional components of emergencies. In the examples described, environmental hazards are investigated in great detail. Nevertheless, societal preconditions are shown to be more critical. Inadequacies in emergency preparedness, performance, and post-disaster response are highlighted, and for those most at risk. The conclusions present major challenges for the agent-specific view of disasters, and for disaster management preoccupied with natural forces, uncertainty, and emergency responses. Rather, a view of disaster causality emerges emphasizing avoidable failures of preventive, protective, and intervention measures. Evidence is cited to show this is increasingly relevant in so-called natural disasters lacking such inquiries. The discussion considers the relevance of a preventive and precautionary approach in this context. The histories of accident, disease, fire, and crime prevention support arguments for greater attention to context-specific environmental and societal aspects of risk. Aligning disaster management more closely with preventive priorities depends upon a much greater focus on people, places, and livelihoods most at risk, reversing the social processes that put them at risk. It requires listening to their voices and concerns, recognizing and bolstering their resilience. Much more can and should be done to disseminate the protections, from building regulations to insurance, that actually do save so many others in the disasters that happen. As such, the case for greater attention to issues of governance and social justice is strengthened. 相似文献
8.
Analysis of social vulnerability to hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
To improve natural disaster management, it is important to recognize the variability of the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop location-based emergency plans accordingly. This paper presents a mathematical model to establish a model of social vulnerability index (SoVI), which includes 12 social variables, and the regional social vulnerability to natural hazards was formulated by them. Taking a city as statistical unit, the variability of vulnerability to natural hazards was explored among the 323 cities based on the SoVI. The results indicate that vulnerability is a location-based regional phenomenon, with the most vulnerable cities being located in the southwest of China and the eastern areas being generally less vulnerable. The results will be helpful for policy makers to formulate disaster management plans, which can be beneficial for people in more vulnerable areas who are responding to, coping with, and recovering from natural disasters. 相似文献
9.
This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries. 相似文献
10.
塔里木盆地是我国最大的半封闭型内陆盆地, 干旱、大风、沙尘暴、洪水以及地震、雪灾等自然灾害频繁.为了提高塔里木盆地城市应对自然灾害的能力, 以阿克苏地区为例, 在广泛借鉴国内外灾害脆弱性评价的指标体系与评价模型的基础上, 以多灾种复合情况为背景, 构建塔里木盆地自然灾害脆弱性评价指标体系, 运用模糊综合评价法进行脆弱性评价, 并对各指标进行对比分析.结果表明: 阿克苏市、新和县、阿瓦提县的高脆弱度值最高, 分别为0.48、0.36及0.40, 属于高脆弱度; 温宿县、沙雅县的中脆弱度值较高, 分别0.24和0.26, 属于中脆弱度; 库车县、拜城县、乌什县、柯坪县的低脆弱度值较高, 分别为0.48、0.45、0.36及0.35, 属于低脆弱度.根据各县市自然灾害脆弱性评价结果, 结合区域特点, 提出了防灾抗灾的对策建议, 对塔里木盆地城市降低脆弱性、减轻自然灾害影响有一定借鉴意义. 相似文献
11.
Scott McKinnon 《GeoJournal》2017,82(3):503-515
Since the silent era, Hollywood has maintained a particular fascination with disasters. Up on the screen buildings collapse, volcanoes erupt and tornadoes destroy all in their path. This article investigates the Hollywood disaster genre for its depiction of sexual and gender identities. Researchers increasingly recognise the significance of sexuality and gender in how ‘real-world’ disasters are experienced. Social marginality linked to lesbian, gay, bisexual and trans (LGBT) identities has specific consequences within the social impacts of a disaster. In Hollywood disaster films, LGBT identities are almost entirely absent. This does not mean, however, that sexuality is positioned as irrelevant to the disaster experience as represented by Hollywood. Instead, these films valorise and naturalise a particular vision of heterosexuality and represent disasters as mechanisms for the creation of heterosexual space. 相似文献
12.
The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance.
相似文献13.
Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China. 相似文献
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15.
论地质环境变化与地质灾害减轻战略 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
地质灾害具备自然、社会和资源三重基本属性。地质灾害起源于地质环境变化。地质环境变化的动力是地外天体引力、地球内动力、地球表层外动力和人类社会工程经济活动4种地质作用。在区域社会经济建设高速发展阶段，人类与地质环境相互作用程度加重导致地质灾害造成的受灾人口和经济损失绝对量是持续上升的。通过采取各种减灾行动，可以实现因灾伤亡人数持续减少，灾害损失相对社会财富增长的比例持续降低，从而实现控制地质灾害增长的趋势。提出了国家地质灾害减轻战略目标、战略对策和减灾行动，强调建立政府、科学技术界、工程企业界与公众社会“四位一体”的减灾战略“伙伴”关系，推动减灾理念从被动防治向科学开发地质环境的转变。 相似文献
16.
Jorge Villegas Corene Matyas Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan Ignatius Cahyanto Brijesh Thapa Lori Pennington-Gray 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(1):97-116
Tourists are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as hurricanes since they might be less informed and prepared than residents of disaster-prone areas. Thus, understanding how the traits of a tropical cyclone as well as specific characteristics of tourists influence affective and cognitive responses to a hurricane warning message is a critical component in disaster planning. Using scenarios that presented tropical cyclones with different relevant characteristics (such as category at landfall), tourists’ knowledge, experience with hurricanes, trip traits, and the location of the survey (coastal or inland), this study contributes to the literature on sociological issues related to natural disasters. The findings suggest that risk perceptions and fear are influenced differently by the traits of the hurricanes and tourists’ knowledge and experience. Risk is strongly influenced by the projected category of the hurricane at landfall, while fear is not as sensitive to this extremely relevant trait of cyclones. The results also suggest that the influence of risk and fear on evacuation likelihood is strong and positive. This study shows the value of studying cognitive and affective responses to uncertain events. 相似文献
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针对复杂洪水灾害系统中随机、模糊、灰色等各种不确定性,结合洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的理论框架,以最大熵原理和属性区间识别理论为基础,建立了基于最大熵原理的洪水灾害风险属性区间识别模型(AIRM-POME),利用梯形模糊数和层次分析法相结合的方法确定评价指标权重,采用均化系数综合AIRM-POME计算得到的属性测度区间,由置信度准则和特征值公式对各评价单元进行危险、易损等级的评定和排序,并根据联合国对自然灾害风险的定义及其定量表达式给出风险等级。将模型应用到荆江分洪区洪水灾害风险分析中,实例研究表明,模型合理可靠,深层次地刻画了各种不确定性,是一种风险分析新方法,可推广应用到其他自然灾害的风险分析中。 相似文献
19.
High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development have affected all nations worldwide, but
in disaster-prone areas, the impact is even greater serving to increase the extent of damage from natural catastrophes. As
a result of the global nature of environmental change, modern economies have had to adapt, and sustainability is an extremely
important issue. Clearly, natural disasters will affect the competitiveness of an enterprise. This study focuses on natural
disaster management in an area in which the direct risks are posed by the physical effects of natural disasters such as floods,
droughts, tsunamis, and rising sea levels. On a local level, the potential impact of a disaster on a company and how much
damage (loss) it causes to facilities and future business are of concern. Each company must make plans to mitigate predictable
risk. Risk assessments must be completed in a timely manner. Disaster management is also very important to national policy.
Natural disaster management mechanisms can include strategies for disaster prevention, early warning (prediction) systems,
disaster mitigation, preparedness and response, and human resource development. Both governmental administration (public)
and private organizations should participate in these programs. Participation of the local community is especially important
for successful disaster mitigation, preparation for, and the implementations of such measures. Our focus in this study is
a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves
probabilistic constraints. 相似文献
20.
Characterizing the spatial distribution of typical natural disaster vulnerability in China from 2010 to 2017 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Wang Qian Zhang Qi-peng Liu Yang-yang Tong Lin-jing Zhang Yan-zhen Li Xiao-yu Li Jian-long 《Natural Hazards》2020,100(1):3-15
Natural disaster vulnerability can intuitively reflect the susceptibility of an area to environmental changes. Better understanding the spatial distribution of natural disaster vulnerability is a critical process for taking effective adaptation and management. Although significant achievements have been made in disaster vulnerability, few studies are known about natural disaster vulnerability at the national scale, especially from the typical natural disaster events in China. In this study, with normalizing selected indicators and calculating vulnerability index, we analyzed the spatial distribution of natural disasters vulnerability during 2010–2017 using the geospatial techniques. The results showed that natural disaster vulnerability has certain spatial differences, but different natural disaster can occur in the same area during the study period. Drought disaster can occur in all regions of China, especially in Inner Mongolia. Flood disaster is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River Basin. The wind and storm disaster is chiefly in the northern regions in China. The freezing disaster is widely distributed in China. Furthermore, the regions with low vulnerability were primarily distributed in the eastern coastal region, indicating that the rapid development of economy and technology can resist or mitigate natural disaster to a certain extent. This study offers a solution to study natural disasters and provides scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation actions.
相似文献