首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 735 毫秒
1.
We examine the effect of uncertainty due to limited information on the remediation design of a contaminated aquifer using the pump and treat method. The hydraulic conductivity and contaminant concentration distributions for a fictitious contaminated aquifer are generated assuming a limited number of sampling locations. Stochastic optimization with multiple realizations is used to account for aquifer uncertainty. The optimization process involves a genetic algorithm (GA). As the number of realizations increases, a greater extraction rate and more wells are needed. There was a total cost increase, but the optimal remediation designs became more reliable. Stochastic optimization analysis also determines the locations for extraction wells, the variation in extraction rates as a function of the change of well locations, and the reliability of the optimal designs. The number of realizations (stack number) that caused the design factors to converge could be determined. Effective stochastic optimization may be achieved by reducing computational resources. An increase in the variability of the conductivity distribution requires more extraction wells. Information about potential extraction wells can be used to prevent failure of the remediation task.  相似文献   

2.
A new computational framework is developed for the design and retrofit of building structures by considering aseismic design as a complex adaptive process. For the initial phase of the development within this framework, genetic algorithms are employed for the discrete optimization of passively damped structural systems. The passive elements may include metallic plate dampers, viscous fluid dampers and viscoelastic solid dampers. The primary objective is to determine robust designs, including both the non‐linearity of the structural system and the uncertainty of the seismic environment. Within the present paper, this computational design approach is applied to a series of model problems, involving sizing and placement of passive dampers for energy dissipation. In order to facilitate our investigations and provide a baseline for further study, we introduce several simplifications for these initial examples. In particular, we employ deterministic lumped parameter structural models, memoryless fitness function definitions and hypothetical seismic environments. Despite these restrictions, some interesting results are obtained from the simulations and we are able to gain an understanding of the potential for the proposed evolutionary aseismic design methodology. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
The comparison between two series of optimal remediation designs using deterministic and stochastic approaches showed a number of converging features. Limited sampling measurements in a supposed contaminated aquifer formed the hydraulic conductivity field and the initial concentration distribution used in the optimization process. The deterministic and stochastic approaches employed a single simulation–optimization method and a multiple realization approach, respectively. For both approaches, the optimization model made use of a genetic algorithm. In the deterministic approach, the total cost, extraction rate, and the number of wells used increase when the design must satisfy the intensified concentration constraint. Growing the stack size in the stochastic approach also brings about same effects. In particular, the change in the selection frequency of the used extraction wells, with increasing stack size, for the stochastic approach can indicate the locations of required additional wells in the deterministic approach due to the intensified constraints. These converging features between the two approaches reveal that a deterministic optimization approach with controlled constraints is achievable enough to design reliable remediation strategies, and the results of a stochastic optimization approach are readily available to real contaminated sites.  相似文献   

4.
Providing reliable and accurate storm surge forecasts is important for a wide range of problems related to coastal environments. In order to adequately support decision-making processes, it also become increasingly important to be able to estimate the uncertainty associated with the storm surge forecast. The procedure commonly adopted to do this uses the results of a hydrodynamic model forced by a set of different meteorological forecasts; however, this approach requires a considerable, if not prohibitive, computational cost for real-time application. In the present paper we present two simplified methods for estimating the uncertainty affecting storm surge prediction with moderate computational effort. In the first approach we use a computationally fast, statistical tidal model instead of a hydrodynamic numerical model to estimate storm surge uncertainty. The second approach is based on the observation that the uncertainty in the sea level forecast mainly stems from the uncertainty affecting the meteorological fields; this has led to the idea to estimate forecast uncertainty via a linear combination of suitable meteorological variances, directly extracted from the meteorological fields. The proposed methods were applied to estimate the uncertainty in the storm surge forecast in the Venice Lagoon. The results clearly show that the uncertainty estimated through a linear combination of suitable meteorological variances nicely matches the one obtained using the deterministic approach and overcomes some intrinsic limitations in the use of a statistical tidal model.  相似文献   

5.
Despite their apparent high dimensionality, spatially distributed hydraulic properties of geologic formations can often be compactly (sparsely) described in a properly designed basis. Hence, the estimation of high-dimensional subsurface flow properties from dynamic performance and monitoring data can be formulated and solved as a sparse reconstruction inverse problem. Recent advances in statistical signal processing, formalized under the compressed sensing paradigm, provide important guidelines on formulating and solving sparse inverse problems, primarily for linear models and using a deterministic framework. Given the uncertainty in describing subsurface physical properties, even after integration of the dynamic data, it is important to develop a practical sparse Bayesian inversion approach to enable uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we use sparse geologic dictionaries to compactly represent uncertain subsurface flow properties and develop a practical sparse Bayesian method for effective data integration and uncertainty quantification. The multi-Gaussian assumption that is widely used in classical probabilistic inverse theory is not appropriate for representing sparse prior models. Following the results presented by the compressed sensing paradigm, the Laplace (or double exponential) probability distribution is found to be more suitable for representing sparse parameters. However, combining Laplace priors with the frequently used Gaussian likelihood functions leads to neither a Laplace nor a Gaussian posterior distribution, which complicates the analytical characterization of the posterior. Here, we first express the form of the Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) estimate for Laplace priors and then use the Monte-Carlo-based Randomize Maximum Likelihood (RML) method to generate approximate samples from the posterior distribution. The proposed Sparse RML (SpRML) approximate sampling approach can be used to assess the uncertainty in the calibrated model with a relatively modest computational complexity. We demonstrate the suitability and effectiveness of the SpRML formulation using a series of numerical experiments of two-phase flow systems in both Gaussian and non-Gaussian property distributions in petroleum reservoirs and successfully apply the method to an adapted version of the PUNQ-S3 benchmark reservoir model.  相似文献   

6.
Modern ground water characterization and remediation projects routinely require calibration and inverse analysis of large three-dimensional numerical models of complex hydrogeological systems. Hydrogeologic complexity can be prompted by various aquifer characteristics including complicated spatial hydrostratigraphy and aquifer recharge from infiltration through an unsaturated zone. To keep the numerical models computationally efficient, compromises are frequently made in the model development, particularly, about resolution of the computational grid and numerical representation of the governing flow equation. The compromise is required so that the model can be used in calibration, parameter estimation, performance assessment, and analysis of sensitivity and uncertainty in model predictions. However, grid properties and resolution as well as applied computational schemes can have large effects on forward-model predictions and on inverse parameter estimates. We investigate these effects for a series of one- and two-dimensional synthetic cases representing saturated and variably saturated flow problems. We show that "conformable" grids, despite neglecting terms in the numerical formulation, can lead to accurate solutions of problems with complex hydrostratigraphy. Our analysis also demonstrates that, despite slower computer run times and higher memory requirements for a given problem size, the control volume finite-element method showed an advantage over finite-difference techniques in accuracy of parameter estimation for a given grid resolution for most of the test problems.  相似文献   

7.
Buried unexploded ordnance (UXO) continues to be a difficult remediation problem from both a sensing and a discrimination point of view. Modern approaches to both the sensing and discrimination problems utilize high bandwidth electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensors to collect geo-referenced data which is then inverted, or fit, using a forward model in order to obtain features that can be directly interpreted using the physics associated with electromagnetic induction-based sensing. These features are then used in a variety of classification architectures. One aspect of this process that has captured recent interest is that uncertainty in the positions at which data was collected can degrade the inversion performance and thus the subsequent classification. Several mechanisms to address this issue have been explored that range from filtering and prediction of actual positions to exploiting Bayesian approaches for uncertainty mitigation. In the Bayesian approach, a statistical model of the position errors is used as a prior for integrating over the uncertainty in the inversion process. In this study, we demonstrate that errors in the statistical priors used in this process can negatively impact subsequent classification performance, thus highlighting the need for an accurate statistical model for the position errors. Next, we propose a mechanism by which to obtain such models. Specifically, we utilize a Goff–Jordan rough surface model and simulate the sensor data collection system motion over the simulated ground or ocean surfaces to calculate errors and generate statistical models. Our results suggest that this approach can be used to develop the statistical models necessary for mitigating uncertain position information.  相似文献   

8.
Rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) relationships are essential inputs for the design and management of various hydrosystem infrastructures (e.g., urban drainages, dams, dykes, etc.). In many cases, rainfall DDF relationships are required at a location where there is no gauge. However, due to the presence of intrinsic randomness of the precipitation process, limited rainfall record, and spatial interpolation, the derived DDF relationships at ungauged sites are subject to uncertainty. This is especially true in Hong Kong with regard to record length. To enhance the utilization of available rainfall data, a daily precipitation-based DDF generation framework for conventional rain gauges in Hong Kong has been developed by the authors utilizing a scaling model. In this article, the methodological framework is extended to derive rainfall DDF relationships at ungauged sites. Owing to the nonlinearity and complexity of the modeling process, exact statistical features of derived DDF relationships are difficult to obtain. In this study, Harr’s probabilistic point estimation method, known for its computational simplicity and accuracy, is applied to quantify the uncertainty features of rainfall DDF relationships derived for ungauged sites in Hong Kong. For illustration, four locations in different geographical locations in Hong Kong are considered. The results show that the uncertainty associated with the estimated statistical moments of annual maximum daily rainfall is significant in contributing to the overall uncertainty of derived rainfall DDF relationships.  相似文献   

9.
Chang LC  Hsiao CT 《Ground water》2002,40(5):481-490
In time-varying ground water remediation, the lack of an optimal control algorithm to simultaneously consider fixed costs and time-varying operating costs makes it nearly impossible to obtain an optimal solution. This study presents a novel algorithm that integrates a genetic algorithm (GA) and constrained differential dynamic programming (CDDP) to solve this time-varying ground water remediation problem. A GA can easily incorporate the fixed costs associated with the installation of wells. However, using a GA to solve for time-varying policies would dramatically increase the computational resources required. Therefore, the CDDP is used to handle the subproblems associated with time-varying operating costs. A hypothetical case study that incorporates fixed and time-varying operating costs is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Simulation results indicate that the fixed costs can significantly influence the number and locations of wells, and a notable total cost savings can be realized by applying the novel algorithm herein.  相似文献   

10.
Contaminant transport models under random sources   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
  相似文献   

11.
Hassan AE 《Ground water》2004,42(3):347-362
Ground water validation is one of the most challenging issues facing modelers and hydrogeologists. Increased complexity in ground water models has created a gap between model predictions and the ability to validate or build confidence in predictions. Specific procedures and tests that can be easily adapted and applied to determine the validity of site-specific ground water models do not exist. This is true for both deterministic and stochastic models, with stochastic models posing the more difficult validation problem. The objective of this paper is to propose a general validation approach that addresses important issues recognized in previous validation studies, conferences, and symposia. The proposed method links the processes for building, calibrating, evaluating, and validating models in an iterative loop. The approach focuses on using collected validation data to reduce uncertainty in the model and narrow the range of possible outcomes. This method is designed for stochastic numerical models utilizing Monte Carlo simulation approaches, but it can be easily adapted for deterministic models. The proposed methodology relies on the premise that absolute validity is not theoretically possible, nor is it a regulatory requirement. Rather, the proposed methodology highlights the importance of testing various aspects of the model and using diverse statistical tools for rigorous checking and confidence building in the model and its predictions. It is this confidence that will encourage regulators and the public to accept decisions based on the model predictions. This validation approach will be applied to a model, described in this paper, dealing with an underground nuclear test site in rural Nevada.  相似文献   

12.
Water resources in the arid southwestern United States are frequently the subject of conflict from competing private and public interests. Legal remedies may remove impasses, but the technical analysis of the problem often determines the future success of legal solutions. In Owens Valley, California, the source of water for the Los Angeles Aqueduct (LAA) is flow diverted from the Owens River and its tributaries and ground water from valley aquifers. Future management of ground water delivered to the LAA needs technical support regarding quantity available, interconnection of shallow and confined aquifers, impact on local springs, and rate of recharge. Ground water flow models and ground water composition are tools already in use, but these have large uncertainty for local interpretations. This study conducted targeted sampling of springs and wells to evaluate the hydrologic system to corroborate conceptual and numerical models. The effort included measurement of intrinsic isotopic composition at key locations in the aquifers. The stable isotopic data of boron (delta(11)B), sulfur (delta(34)S), oxygen (delta(18)O), hydrogen (delta D), and tritium ((3)H) supported by basic chemical data provided rules for characterizing the upper and the lower aquifer system, confirmed the interpretation of ground water flow near faults and flow barriers, and detected hydraulic connections between the LAA and the perennial springs at key locations along the unlined reach of the LAA. This study exemplifies the use of forensic isotopic approaches as independent checks on the consistency of interpretations of conceptual models of a ground water system and the numerical hydrologic simulations.  相似文献   

13.
Waste disposal sites with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) frequently contain contaminants that are present in both the ground water and vadose zone. Vertical sampling is useful where transport of VOCs in the vadose zone may effect ground water and where steep vertical gradients in chemical concentrations are anticipated. Designs for combination ground water and gas sampling wells place the tubing inside the casing with the sample port penetrating the casing for sampling. This physically interferes with pump or sampler placement. This paper describes a well design that combines a ground water well with gas sampling ports by attaching the gas sampling tubing and ports to the exterior of the casing. Placement of the tubing on the exterior of the casing allows exact definition of gas port depth, reduces physical interference between the various monitoring equipment, and allows simultaneous remediation and monitoring in a single well. The usefulness and versatility of this design was demonstrated at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) with the installation of seven wells with 53 gas ports, in a geologic formation consisting of deep basalt with sedimentary interbeds at depths from 7.2 to 178 m below land surface. The INEEL combination well design is easy to construct, install, and operate.  相似文献   

14.
Woocay A  Walton J 《Ground water》2008,46(3):437-449
Multivariate statistical methods (MSMs) applied to ground water chemistry provide valuable insight into the main hydrochemical species, hydrochemical processes, and water flowpaths important to ground water evolution. The MSMs of principal component factor analysis (FA) and k-means cluster analysis (CA) were sequentially applied to major ion chemistry from 211 different ground water-sampling locations in the Amargosa Desert. The FA reduces the number of variables describing the system and finds relationships between major ions. The CA of the reduced system produced objective hydrochemical facies, which are independent of, but in good agreement with, lithological data. The derived factors and hydrochemical facies are innovatively presented on biplots, revealing composition of hydrochemical processes and facies, and overlaid on a digital elevation model, displaying flowpaths and interactions with geologic and topographic features in the region. In particular, a distinct ground water chemical signature is observed beneath and surrounding the extended flowpath of Fortymile Wash, presenting some contradiction to contemporary water levels along with potential interaction with a fault line. The signature surrounding the ephemeral Fortymile Wash is believed to represent the relic of water that infiltrated during past pluvial periods when the amount of runoff in the wash was significantly larger than during the current drier period. This hypothesis and aforementioned analyses are supported by the examination of available chloride, oxygen-18, hydrogen-2, and carbon-14 data from the region.  相似文献   

15.
This paper investigates numerical optimization of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) site remediation design considering effects of prediction and measurement uncertainty. Results are presented for a hypothetical problem involving remediation using thermal source reduction (TSR) and bioremediation with electron donor (ED) injection. Pump-and-treat is utilized as a backup measure if compliance criteria are not met. Remediation system design variables are optimized to minimize expected net present value (ENPV) cost. Adaptive criteria are assumed for real-time control of TSR and ED duration. Source zone dissolved concentration data enabled more reliable and lower cost operation of TSR than soil concentration data, but using both soil and dissolved data improved results sufficiently to more than offset the additional cost. Decisions to terminate remediation and monitoring or to initiate pump-and-treat are complicated by measurement noise. Simultaneous optimization of monitoring frequency, averaging period, and lookback periods to confirm decisions, in addition to remediation design variables, reduced ENPV cost. Results indicate that remediation design under conditions of uncertainty is affected by subtle interactions and tradeoffs between design variables, compliance rules, site characteristics, and uncertainty in model predictions and monitoring data. Optimized designs yielded cost savings of up to approximately 50% compared with a nonoptimized design based on common engineering practices. Significant improvements in accuracy and reductions in cost were achieved by recalibrating the model to data collected during remediation and re-optimizing design variables. Repeating this process periodically is advisable to minimize total costs and maximize reliability.  相似文献   

16.
Design Screening Tools for Passive Funnel and Gate Systems   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The funnel and gate remediation concept (Star and Cherry 1993) represents a promising, yet relatively under-developed, technology for the passive control and in situ remediation of contaminated ground water. Effective design and implementation of such a system may, however, prove difficult under conditions of large or unpredictable variations in contaminant migration or ground water flow.
Numerical modeling of two-dimensional ground water flow has been used to predict the hydraulic performance of passive, straight, or winged funnel and gate configurations over a range of hydrogeologic and ambient ground water flow conditions. The results of these analyses were used to construct generic correlation diagrams relating upstream capture zone or gale through put to the barrier, gale, and aquifer characteristics. These diagrams serve as useful screening tools to (1) quantitatively estimate the capture zone of pre-determined funnel and gale configurations, or (2) develop preliminary funnel and gale designs that will yield a desired capture zone, independent of aquifer characteristics.  相似文献   

17.
Site closure for soil vacuum extraction (SVE) application typically requires attainment or specified soil concentration standards based on the premise that mass flux from the vadose zone to ground water not result in levels exceeding maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Unfortunately, realization of MCLs in ground water may not be attainable at many sites. This results in soil remediation efforts that may be in excess of what is necessary for future protection of ground water and soil remediation goals which often cannot be achieved within a reasonable time period. Soil venting practitioners have attempted to circumvent these problems by basing closure on some predefined percent total mass removal, or an approach to a vapor concentration asymptote. These approaches, however, are subjective and influenced by venting design. We propose an alternative strategy based on evaluation of five components: (1) site characterization, (2) design. (3) performance monitoring, (4) rule-limited vapor transport, and (5) mass flux to and from ground water. Demonstration of closure is dependent on satisfactory assessment of all five components. The focus of this paper is to support mass flux evaluation. We present a plan based on monitoring of three subsurface zones and develop an analytical one-dimensional vertical flux model we term VFLUX. VFLUX is a significant improvement over the well-known numerical one-dimensional model. VLEACH, which is often used for estimation of mass flux to ground water, because it allows for the presence of nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) in soil, degradation, and a lime-dependent boundary condition at the water table inter-face. The time-dependent boundary condition is the center-piece of our mass flux approach because it dynamically links performance of ground water remediation lo SVE closure. Progress or lack of progress in ground water remediation results in either increasingly or decreasingly stringent closure requirements, respectively.  相似文献   

18.
Uncertainty plagues every effort to model subsurface processes and every decision made on the basis of such models. Given this pervasive uncertainty, virtually all practical problems in hydrogeology can be formulated in terms of (ecologic, monetary, health, regulatory, etc.) risk. This review deals with hydrogeologic applications of recent advances in uncertainty quantification, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and decision-making under uncertainty. The subjects discussed include probabilistic analyses of exposure pathways, PRAs based on fault tree analyses and other systems-based approaches, PDF (probability density functions) methods for propagating parametric uncertainty through a modeling process, computational tools (e.g., random domain decompositions and transition probability based approaches) for quantification of geologic uncertainty, Bayesian algorithms for quantification of model (structural) uncertainty, and computational methods for decision-making under uncertainty (stochastic optimization and decision theory). The review is concluded with a brief discussion of ways to communicate results of uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.  相似文献   

19.
The vadose zone is the portion of the geologic profile above a perennial aquifer. Inclusion of mandatory vadose zone monitoring techniques as an approach to aquifer protect ion was first proposed under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act in the United States in 1978 and has since received increasing acceptance at federal and stale levels. The goals of a vadose zone characterization and monitoring effort are to establish background conditions, identify contaminant transport pathways, identify the extent and degree of existing contamination, establish the basis for monitoring network design, measure the parameters needed in a risk assessment, and provide detection of contaminant migration toward ground water resources. The benefits of vadose zone monitoring include early warning of contaminant migration, potential reduction of ground water monitoring efforts, reduction of contaminant spreading and volume, and reduced time and cost of remediation once a contaminant release occurs. Vadose zone characterization and monitoring techniques should be considered as critical hydrologic tools in the prevention of ground water resource degradation.  相似文献   

20.
MODFLOW 2000 head uncertainty,a first-order second moment method   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
A computationally efficient method to estimate the variance and covariance in piezometric head results computed through MODFLOW 2000 using a first-order second moment (FOSM) approach is presented. This methodology employs a first-order Taylor series expansion to combine model sensitivity with uncertainty in geologic data. MODFLOW 2000 is used to calculate both the ground water head and the sensitivity of head to changes in input data. From a limited number of samples, geologic data are extrapolated and their associated uncertainties are computed through a conditional probability calculation. Combining the spatially related sensitivity and input uncertainty produces the variance-covariance matrix, the diagonal of which is used to yield the standard deviation in MODFLOW 2000 head. The variance in piezometric head can be used for calibrating the model, estimating confidence intervals, directing exploration, and evaluating the reliability of a design. A case study illustrates the approach, where aquifer transmissivity is the spatially related uncertain geologic input data. The FOSM methodology is shown to be applicable for calculating output uncertainty for (1) spatially related input and output data, and (2) multiple input parameters (transmissivity and recharge).  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号