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1.
Rainfall is one of the pivotal climatic variables, which influence spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. In this study, we have attempted to understand the interannual long-term trend analysis of the daily rainfall events of ≥?2.5 mm and rainfall events of extreme threshold, over the Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka. High spatial resolution (0.25°?×?0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set of Indian Meteorological Department was used for this study. Thirty-eight grid points in the study area was selected to analyze the daily precipitation for 113 years (1901–2013). Grid points were divided into two zones: low land (exposed to the sea and low elevated area/coastal region) and high land (interior from the sea and high elevated area/Western Ghats). The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI and are based on annual rainfall total (RR), yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, consecutive wet days (≥?2.5 mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), annual frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?100 mm), frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?65–100 mm), moderate rainfall (≥?2.5–65 mm), frequency of medium rainfall (≥?40–65 mm), and frequency of low rainfall (≥?20–40 mm). Mann-Kendall test was applied to the nine rainfall indices, and Theil-Sen estimator perceived the nature and the magnitude of slope in rainfall indices. The results show contrasting trends in the extreme rainfall indices in low land and high land regions. The changes in daily rainfall events in the low land region primarily indicate statistically significant positive trends in the annual total rainfall, yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, SDII, frequency of very heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall as well as medium rainfall events. Furthermore, the overall annual rainfall strongly correlated with all the rainfall indices in both regions, especially with indices that represent heavy rainfall events which is responsible for the total increase of rainfall.  相似文献   

2.
Evaporation capacity is an important factor that cannot be ignored when judging whether extreme precipitation events will produce groundwater recharge. The evaporation layer’s role in groundwater recharge was evaluated using a lysimeter simulation experiment in the desert area of Dunhuang, in the western part of the Hexi Corridor in northwestern China’s Gansu Province. The annual precipitation in the study area is extremely low, averaging 38.87 mm during the 60-year study period, and daily pan evaporation amounts to 2,486 mm. Three simulated precipitation regimes (normal, 10 mm; ordinary annual maximum, 21 mm; and extreme, 31 mm) were used in the lysimeter simulation to allow monitoring of water movement and weighing to detect evaporative losses. The differences in soil-water content to a depth of 50 cm in the soil profile significantly affected rainfall infiltration during the initial stages of rainfall events. It was found that the presence of a dry 50-cm-deep sand layer was the key factor for “potential recharge” after the three rainfall events. Daily precipitation events less than 20 mm did not produce groundwater recharge because of the barrier effect created by the dry sand. Infiltration totaled 0.68 mm and penetrated to a depth below 50 cm with 31 mm of rainfall, representing potential recharge equivalent to 1.7 % of the rainfall. This suggests that only extreme precipitation events offer the possibility of recharge of groundwater in this extremely arid area.  相似文献   

3.
Sustainable management of land requires regular acquisition of qualitative information regarding the status of its use. It is especially important to track the changes relating to the land’s competitive development needs such as mining. The field-based monitoring of a mine with a wide footprint is expensive and time-consuming. Remote sensing techniques have been developed and demonstrated as cost-effective alternatives for the conventional methods of land use/land cover (LULC) monitoring. In this study, the land cover changes that occurred between the year of 2000 and 2009 in a kaolin mining and processing area in the Kutch region of India are mapped using two Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images. For this purpose, the spectral signature of the land covers including vegetation cover and kaolin were determined and matched filtering (MF) method was applied to classify the images. The overall accuracy of the classified 2009 image was estimated for the kaolin and the vegetation cover to 89.5 and 86.0 % respectively. The change in the land use which occurred from 2000 to 2009 were quantified and analysed for both classes. This study provided a practical framework for rapid mapping of the land cover changes around open-cut kaolin mining area using freely available Landsat data.  相似文献   

4.
《Quaternary International》2006,142(1):140-146
This paper deals with the possible occurrence, within the next 100–1000 years, and under the same geomorphological conditions, of meteorological events similar to the precipitation which triggered the hydric erosion that initiated Corralito ravine. The study area is located in the central part of Córdoba Province (32° 05′–31° 45′S; 64°10′–63°30′W) in the Plains region. The erosive process was started by the storm of September 1978. Five years later, two extreme rains took place in the same humid period (1983/84), with recurrence intervals of 10 and 25 years, respectively, and in the year 2000 another extreme rainstorm with a 100-year return period occurred. Each event can be correlated with the main reactivation surfaces, visible as successive deepening levels at the gully. Although there is a positive climatic tendency in annual rainfall, due to an increasing number of rainy days, the annual maximum of daily rainfall remained constant. Hence, the dominant factor in the ravine development was the occurrence of convectively generated extreme hydrometeorologic events. Prediction of 24-h maximum rainfall through the DIT Model is applicable to the future, allowing the design of structures required to control overflowing and sediment production.  相似文献   

5.
路红亚  杜军  袁雷  廖健 《冰川冻土》2014,36(3):563-572
利用西藏珠穆朗玛峰地区5个气象站点1971-2012年逐日降水量资料,采用滑动平均、线性回归、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了珠穆朗玛峰地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征. 结果表明：1971-2012年42 a来,珠穆朗玛峰地区大部分极端降水指数呈现出自东向西逐渐增大的空间分布格局, 连续干旱日数、连续湿日和降水强度表现为增加趋势,其他极端降水指数趋于减少. 其中,强降水量、极强降水量和年降水总量减幅较大,分别为-5.74 mm·（10a）-1、-1.20 mm·（10a）-1和-5.32 mm·（10a）-1,在喜马拉雅山南坡的聂拉木站表现的最为明显. 大部分极端降水指数在21世纪最初的10 a减幅最大,在30 a际尺度上也表现为减少趋势. 除连续干旱日数外,极端降水与年降水总量关系密切. 各项极端降水指数都存在3～4 a显著周期,也存在10 a、12 a和15 a的周期. 在时间转折上,各项极端降水指数均未发生气候突变.  相似文献   

6.
The features of climate change and their effects on glacier snow melting in the past 50 years (1961–2010) in Xinjiang were studied. Regional climate data for 49 meteorological stations in the Tianshan Mountains and the northern and southern areas of Xinjiang were collected with the aid of techniques such as climatological statistical diagnosis, regional climate models, remote sensing, and geographic information system. The annual average temperature displayed a rising trend across the Tianshan mountainous area and both areas of Xinjiang. The trend was particularly apparent in winter and autumn with the rate of increase in the annual average minimum temperature being significantly higher than that of the maximum temperature. Rainfall also tended to increase in all three areas over the 50-year period, with the magnitude of change being highest in the mountainous area followed by northern Xinjiang and then southern Xinjiang. As a result of the rising temperatures, there was a negative material balance among the region's glaciers, of which the year 1982/1983 was the key year for the development of Tianshan mountain glacier snow. After this date, glacial ablation intensified with an annual change increase in average temperature of 1 °C, leading to a glacier material balance change of about 300 mm. To establish rainfall and temperature sequences for three regional climate change scenarios in the 2011–2050 period, we adopted the delta method using actual measurements during the 1961–2000 period against corrected data from rainfall and temperature simulations. All three scenarios indicated that temperatures will continue to increase, that the increase in rainfall may decrease in mountainous regions but will increase in the basin, and that the speed of glacial ablation in Xinjiang will continue to accelerate.  相似文献   

7.
疏勒河灌区2000-2014年植被生态适宜需水动态研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
叶红梅  陈少辉  盛丰 《冰川冻土》2016,38(1):231-240
以疏勒河灌区为研究对象,利用2000-2014年MOD13Q1遥感数据,采用植被生长旺季的增强型植被指数(EVI)建立植被生态分区标准,获得人工种植植被区、中覆盖率天然植被区、低覆盖率天然植被区、荒漠稀疏植被区和荒漠区的面积数据,采用阿维里扬诺夫潜水蒸发模型估算了各类生态分区的植被生态需水量,分析了各类植被生态适宜需水量的时空变化规律.结果表明,研究区总植被生态需水量年均增幅达2.64%,其中,人工种植地植被生态需水量年均增幅达3.65%,呈现稳定增长的趋势;天然植被生态需水量年均减少幅度为1.58%,呈现逐步减少的趋势.最后,根据疏勒河干流昌马堡水文站同时期的年均径流量数据,分析了影响植被生态适宜需水动态变化的因素,揭示了植被生态适宜需水量对径流量变化和灌区工程建设的响应关系,为灌区水资源配置提供了科学依据.  相似文献   

8.
In the Tampa Bay region of Florida, extreme levels of annual and seasonal rainfall are often associated with tropical cyclones and strong El Niño episodes. We used stepwise multiple regression models to describe associations between annual and seasonal rainfall levels and annual, bay-segment mean water clarity (as Secchi depth [m]), chlorophylla (μg I?1), color (pcu), and turbidity (ntu) over a 20-yr period (1985–2004) during which estimated nutrient loadings have been dominated by non-point sources. For most bay segments, variations in annual mean water clarity were associated with variations in chlorophylla concentrations, which were associated in turn with annual or seasonal rainfall. In two bay segments these associations with annual rainfall were superimposed on significant long-term declining trends in chlorophylla. Color was significantly associated with annual rainfall in all bay segments, and in one segment variations in color were the best predictors of variations in water clarity. Turbidity showed a declining trend over time in all bay segments and no association with annual rainfall, and was significantly associated with variations in water clarity in only one bay segment. While chlorophylla, color, and turbidity a affected water clarity to varying degrees, the effects of extreme rainfall events (El Niño events in 1998 and 2003, and multiple tropical cyclone events in 2004) on water clarity were relatively short-lived, persisting for periods of months rather than years. During the 20-yr period addressed in these analyses, declining temporal trends in chlorophylla and turbidity, produced in part by a long-term watershed management program that has focused on curtailing annual loadings of nitrogen and other pollutants, may have helped to prevent the bay as a whole from responding more adversely to the high rainfall periods that occurred in 1998 and 2003–2004.  相似文献   

9.
This paper is proposed for the investigation of possible relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation (SOI), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) and rainfall of Sebaou river watershed (Northern central Algeria), covering a period of 39 years at monthly scale. Several time and scale-based methods were used: correlation and spectral analysis (CSA), continuous wavelet transform (CWT), multiresolution wavelet analysis (MRWA), cross wavelet analysis (XWT), wavelet coherence transform (WCT) and cross multiresolution wavelet analysis (CMRWA). The rainfall analysis by CSA and CWT has been clearly demonstrating the dominance of 1 year and 1–3-year modes, which they explain 30 to 51% and 25 to 28% of the variance respectively. However, the indices have shown that inter-annual fluctuations up to long-term explain between 60 and 90%. CWT and MRWA indicated significant fluctuations materialising a dry period more marked between the 1980s and 1990s with strong trend towards drier conditions starting from the 1980s, explained by the decadal components D7 and the approximation A7. In addition to the annual component, the XWT spectrums reveal strong coefficients for the SOI between 1992–2005 and 1986–2000 for the modes of 5–10 years and higher than 10 years respectively and less intense for NAO. The WCT between NAO and rainfall indicated the most significant relationship for 1 year, 1–3 years and 3–5 years approximately from the early 1980s corresponding to the dry period. However, the SOI affects rainfall only locally and with significant values more or less localised in the time-frequency space between MO, WeMO and rainfall, but this influence could be significant for low-frequency events. CWMRA shows that the components of 5–10 years and higher than 10 years are the most effective to represent climate index-rainfall significant relationships, where change in Daubechies wavelet properties can improve the correlation across the scales. Furthermore, has indicated that the short-term processes dominate the relationship index-rainfall, which masks the long-term phenomena whose influence can sometimes be very distant. As such, the rainfall variability of the study area has shown fairly significant links, at least locally with large-scale atmospheric circulation phenomena.  相似文献   

10.
In this paper, hydroclimatic fluctuations of the Upper Narmada catchment (upto Narmadasagar damsite) have been studied by examining the time series (1901–80) of (i) 1-to 10-day annual extreme rainfall; (ii) seasonal total rainfall between May and October; (iii) the precipitation concentration index (PCI); (iv) a modified version of PCI(MPCI); and (v) parameters of the periods contributing specified percentages of rainfall to annual total. Most of these parameters followed the normal distribution and did not show any significant long-term trend. However, some dominant long period oscillations have been noticed in extreme rainfall, seasonal rainfall, PCI and MPCI series. Influence of break-monsoon days over India during July and August on the rainfall activities of the Upper Narmada catchment has also been investigated and salient findings discussed.  相似文献   

11.
为探明土地利用变化对黄土高原长期土壤水分平衡的影响,利用校验的Hydrus-1D模型模拟黄土高原北部神木六道沟小流域1981—2050年农耕地—苜蓿草地—天然草地情景下0~4 m土壤水分变化过程,量化土壤储水量、深层渗漏和蒸散发等水文变量的演变特征。结果显示:①农耕地期间年降水的88%为蒸散发消耗,11%为渗漏损失。②苜蓿草地种植后6 a内,蒸散发大幅增加至年降水的108%,土壤水分负平衡,0~4 m土壤储水量以52 mm/a的速率降低;至7~13 a,年降水几乎全部被蒸散发消耗。③苜蓿草地转变为天然草地后,蒸散发量下降31%,土壤水分以45 mm/a的速率逐渐补给,之后年降水量的92%用于蒸散发,8%为渗漏消耗,土壤水分处于相对稳定状态。研究表明不同土地利用方式下的土壤水分平衡模式具有显著差异,种植高耗水植被可造成土壤水分负平衡,导致土壤干燥化,进而对土壤水分补给产生负面效应,改变植被类型可使土壤干层得到有效改善。  相似文献   

12.
The analysis of rainfall pattern and indices of extreme rainfall events is performed for two meteorological stations located in the Central Himalayan Region which is highly vulnerable to rain-induced hazards. The records of these rain-induced disasters suggest that such events are generally observed in later part of monsoon season, when soil is saturated after monsoon rains. An attempt is made here to test trends of 19 different extreme rainfall indices that have been widely used in the literature, using daily rainfall data for two urban centres (Nainital and Almora) over the period 1992–2005. We have used statistical tools such as Sen’s method and Mann–Kendall test for detection of trend in annual rainfall, monsoon rainfall, number of rainy days and 1-day extreme rainfall. Principal component analysis gives the correlation between different extreme rainfall indices. Time series of principal components are representing the trends of extreme indices, their variation and interrelation between different indices. The perception study conducted in the same sites indicates that extreme rainfall events and change in rainfall amount and timing are well perceived by the local people.  相似文献   

13.
内蒙古东部草原区某露天煤矿在长期疏排水条件下造成地下水位持续下降，为研究矿区周边植被生长是否受地下水位下降的影响，采用归一化植被指数法（NDVI）分析了研究区2013—2019年植被盖度变化趋势，选择气温、降水量和地下水位埋深3个气象水文要素，基于联合熵理论计算NDVI与不同要素之间的互信息，得出植被生长的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:研究区植被盖度呈逐年好转趋势，植被指数由2013年的0.10逐渐增加至2019年的0.33，年均增长约为0.03；植被生长与当地气温和降水量关系密切，与地下水位埋深相关性弱；研究区气候变暖和稳定的降水量造成植被返青期提前和生长期延长；在矿区目前疏排水强度下引起的地下水位下降不会造成周边草原植被干枯死亡。研究成果丰富了内蒙古东部草原区植被生长与地下水关系的研究内容，为类似分析评价工作提供技术支撑。   相似文献   

14.
The objective of the present study was to reconstruct a short-term (12–14 years) trend of surface temperature and precipitation patterns using their surrogates as provided by satellite images for selected locations along the Red Sea mountains in Saudi Arabia. Time series land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite were temporally plotted to delineate the trend and the decadal rates of change of both parameters. Results showed that real climate change is reported in the study area during the study period. There is a net increasing in the surface temperatures by 0.45 to 1.2 °C/decade and a net decrease in annual rainfall between 2001 and 2014. Findings of the present study show that the region is under a warming of the climate and a declining of wetness, which coincide with the air temperature and rainfall trends obtained from meteorological stations.  相似文献   

15.
Research on land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important aspect of the study of global change or global warming. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is a good place to study global change because of its unique natural conditions, so we chose the source region of China’s Yellow River for a case study of the driving forces behind LUCC. We used Landsat images obtained in 1989, 2000, and 2005 to establish databases of land use and cover at these times. We then derived LUCC information by overlaying these layers using GIS software. By studying the processes responsible for LUCC, we analyzed the driving forces, which included climatic change, human activities, animal and insect damage, and the influences of government policies. During the 16-year study period, LUCC occurred slowly in response to two groups of processes: natural and anthropogenic. The main driving forces included climate change (the region is becoming drier and warmer), human activities (especially overgrazing), and animal and insect damage. Although political measures such as key national projects to improve the ecological environment could help to restore the region’s vegetation and slow desertification, the region’s fragile ecosystems and harsh natural conditions will make it extremely difficult to rehabilitate the eco-environment.  相似文献   

16.
In this paper, temporal dynamics of eco-environmental changes in coastal areas of China during 1981–2000 are investigated based on four key surface parameters including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), thermal index, moisture index and surface broadband albedo derived from quantitative remote sensing techniques and meteorological data. Firstly, land surface temperature (LST) and land surface broadband albedo are retrieved by the split-window algorithms and high-order polynomial regression method, respectively, using NOAA/AVHRR series images. Then, moisture index and thermal index, indicators of climate and moisture conditions in the study area, are computed from meteorological data and LST using principal component analysis (PCA). Finally, long-term dynamics of these eco-environmental factors and the reasons responsible for these changes are analyzed further. The results show that during the years from 1981 to 2000, the study area experienced a gradual increase in annual NDVI and climate factors and a decrease in surface annual broadband albedo, which indicates that the coastal thermal and moisture conditions and the subsistence conditions of natural vegetation have changed to a considerable extent. According to the results, a warming and wetting tendency over the last two decades is obvious in the China’s coastal zone that are mainly due to land use changes as of growing urbanization, exhaust emissions from industries and transportations and, partly global climate change. Uncontrolled rapid development of the study area may be blamed for these negative changes as a major driving force. The positive feedback mechanisms between albedo, NDVI and climate factors also partly explain these changes. This study suggests that the method integrating biophysical parameters retrieved from remote sensed images and meteorologic data provides a novel and feasible way to monitor large scale eco-environmental changes.
Q. QinEmail:
  相似文献   

17.
Spatio-temporal variations in precipitation are affecting agricultural production in China in the context of climate change. Based on daily precipitation data from 63 national meteorological stations on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1963 to 2012, this paper analysed the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation in terms of precipitation days and intensity, using spatial interpolation, linear trend estimation and wavelet analysis. The results indicated that: (i) from 1963 to 2012, the number of annual precipitation days and intensity decreased gradually from the southeast to the northwest. Additionally, the distribution of the extreme precipitation index was similar to that of the annual precipitation index; (ii) the number of annual precipitation days and heavy precipitation days gradually decreased, while precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation days and extreme rainfall intensity remained relatively stable or decreased. The spatial patterns of annual variation trends were considerably different. The annual precipitation days and intensity trends are consistent with the overall trend, while that of the extreme rainfall index in some regions differs from the overall trend; (iii) the precipitation index displayed different periodic oscillations during the period, and the precipitation index values differed at different time scales. However, all the precipitation index values exhibited a 28-yr oscillation.  相似文献   

18.
Water management in Saudi Arabia is facing major challenges due to the limited water resources and increasing uncertainties caused by climate change. The rainfall and temperature records of the Saudi meteorological data for more than three decades were analyzed for policy suggestions in water sectors based on the changing rainfall patterns. The trends in the annual aridity and rain indices were also examined to define the changing climate conditions and for determining the dry months in different cities of the Kingdom. An increased annual and maximum rainfall was observed for six cities while a decreasing trend in both annual and maximum rainfall was observed for the same number of cities highlighting the variability of rainfall in the whole region. An increasing maximum rainfall with decreasing annual rainfall was observed for the rest of the cities signifying the more extreme rainfall evens and resulting floods of short durations. The changing rainfall trends were also observed for different months during 31 years of the recorded period in addition to the varying climate pattern for different cities within the same district. Finally, these preliminary assessments of any systematic changes in view of the increased rain intensities and extreme climate events are viewed to demonstrate the value rainwater harvesting and management as a local adaptation to the climate variability and extreme in the Kingdom.  相似文献   

19.
Multi-day rainfall events are an important cause of recent severe flooding in Pakistan, and any change in the magnitude of such events may have severe impact upon urban structures such as dams, urban drainage systems, and flood. This article uses statistical distributions to define extremes of annual rainfall of different cities of Punjab (Lahore, Murree, Sialkot, and Jhelum) with given return periods. Our calculations suggest that general extreme value is the best-fitted distribution for the extreme annual rainfall of different cities of Punjab. Our calculations show that different cities of Punjab have 5 years return period for receiving more than 100 mm daily rainfall. While they have 30 years return period for receiving more than 200 mm daily rainfall. This asks for construction of new dams in Pakistan.  相似文献   

20.
The Hanjiang River Basin is the source area of the Middle Route Project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and the vegetation coverage in this basin directly affects the quality of the ecological environment. This study is based on long time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data synthesized over 16 days from 2000 to 2016 in the Hanjiang River Basin. Major climatic data (temperature and rainfall) and topographic data (elevation, slope, and aspect) are employed to analyze the driving forces of NDVI changes. The results demonstrate the following: for the 2000–2016 period, the average annual NDVI is 0.823, with a change trend of 0.025 year?1. The overall NDVI upstream is higher than that downstream. The average annual value of NDVI upstream is 0.844, with a change trend of 0.036 year?1, and that of downstream is 0.799, with a change trend of 0.022 year?1. The spatial distribution of NDVI was significantly increased in the area around the upstream section of the river and near the Danjiangkou Reservoir, and the distribution of NDVI around the central city was significantly reduced. The NDVI was positively correlated with temperature and rainfall, and the impacts differed among different regions. At elevations below 2000 m, the NDVI shows an increasing trend with increasing elevation, and at elevations exceeding 2000 m, the NDVI is negatively correlated with elevation. Slope is positively correlated with the NDVI. The influence of aspect on the NDVI was small.  相似文献   

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