共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 547 毫秒
1.
地震统计区地震活动性参数b值及v4不确定性研究 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
本文结合华北地区几个地震统计区的实例，探讨了地震统计区的重要地震活动性参数b值和v4不确定性的主要影响因素及其特征，并研究分析了其不确定性的大小。结果表明，地震活动性参数的不确定性主要影响因素为样本统计时段、样本处理方法、统计下限震级、高震级年平均发生率等。在郯庐地震统计区，b值变化可达0．2以上，v4的变化可达1．4以上，汾渭地震统计区的不确定性也基本相当，河北平原地震统计区因为地震样本相对丰富，不确定性要小许多。 相似文献
2.
3.
为进一步揭示地震统计区划分、潜在震源区划分和地震活动性参数确定三者的关联性,在100deg;E～120deg;E和29deg;N～42deg;N范围内,寻找出21个位于不同位置、具有一定代表性的场点,研究在非均匀分布与均匀分布两种模型下,地震统计区活动性参数的不确定性对这些场点危险性估计的影响. 综合本次与以往的研究结果表明,不同的地震统计区划分方案会改变一个统计区所包含的地震资料,加上地震统计时段选取的不确定性,会导致统计区地震活动性参数估计的不确定性. 这种不确定性变化越大,均匀分布模型对场点危险性估计所产生的不确定影响也越大,也即地震统计区划分环节起主要作用. 在一个地震统计区内,划分潜在震源区和空间分布函数的不等权分配,提高了有可能发生大地震地方及其附近地区地震动参数的估计值. 在这些地方,潜在震源区划分不确定性的影响是很明显的,尤其对场点地震动参数（如烈度）绝对值的影响更为显著,也即潜在震源区划分环节起主要作用. 一般来说,潜在震源区划分环节的影响仅对最高和次高震级上限潜在震源区内的场点及最高震级上限潜在震源区附近的场点起主要作用,而对那些处于低震级上限潜在震源中的场点,则还是地震统计区划分不确定性的影响大于潜在震源区划分不确定性的影响. 相似文献
4.
在考虑地震活动时空不均匀性的非均匀分布模型中, 就地震统计区活动性参数不确定性在某些城镇产生地震动参数不确定性最大变化值异常区的问题, 寻找出在100deg;~120deg;E、 29deg;～42deg;N范围内, 50年不同超越概率水平下地震动参数不确定性最大变化值异常区的分布特征. 探讨了地震统计区活动性参数不确定性引起的场点危险性估计不确定性与潜在震源区划分的关联性以及异常区产生的原因. 研究表明, 在非均匀分布模型中, 地震统计区活动性参数的不确定性对区内各场点危险性估计不确定的影响是不均衡的, 其与潜在震源区划分方案有关, 尤其在8级以上潜在震源区及其附近, 往往会出现地震动参数不确定性最大变化值的异常区. 而在均匀分布模型中, 统计区内活动性参数的不确定性对各场点的影响是均衡的, 各场点危险性估计的不确定性取决于场点的位置. 一般位于统计区中部的场点, 只与所在统计区的参数不确定性有关, 而位于或靠近不同统计区的交界处, 则可能同时受到几个统计区活动性参数不确定性的综合影响. 相似文献
5.
概率地震危险性分析中参数不确定性研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
本文宗旨是探讨概率地震危险性分析方法中主要地震活动性参数的不确定性及其影响。为此 ,重点研究了地震统计区划分中的不确定性及其影响、地震统计区参数 b值的不确定性及其影响 ,以及空间分布函数对地震活动性参数导致的不确定性的影响。文中指出 ,地震统计区概念是考虑时空不均匀性的概率地震危险性分析方法中特有的概念 ,是对概率地震危险性分析方法在考虑地震活动空间分布不均匀性方面的发展。虽然它源于我国的地震带划分概念 ,但是 ,却明显区别于地震带。文中强调了地震带划分是地震孕育发生环境研究的重要基础 ,而地震统计区仅只服务… 相似文献
6.
在我国当前地震安全性评价中,普遍使用考虑地震活动时空不均匀性的概率地震危险性分析方法(CP-SHA),它规定以地震带为统计区域计算地震活动性参数b值和v4值。正在编制的中国地震动区划图(五代图)提出了针对潜在震源区进行三级划分原则:划分地震带、地震带上划分地震构造区、地震构造区内再划分潜在震源区。本文提出以地震构造区为统计区域回归统计方法计算b值和v4值,然后进行概率危险性分析计算,这样得到的结果可能更为合理。 相似文献
7.
b值是从实际地震资料的统计中得到的.它与实际资料的完整性、可靠性、统计样本量的大小、取样的时空范围、样本的起始震级和取样间隔等因素都有关系. 本文使用累积频度-震级关系,lgN=a-bM,以起始震级为4 3/4和5;震级间隔为1/4,1/2和1级对不同尺度的时空范围进行统计,从中寻找各因素对b值统计结果的影响,为如何合理统计b值取得了一些实验依据. 此外,本文还就历史地震资料和现代仪器记录资料的统一使用问题,lgN-M线性关系两端掉头对b值统计的影响问题也作了探讨,从而提出在地震危险性分析中b值选取的原则及合理选取b值的方法.最后讨论了b值统计中的误差范围及其对危险性分析所产生的影响. 相似文献
8.
本文按照编制第三代地震区划图的思路,根据地震地质、地球物理场和地震活动性的特点,考虑地震活动在空间上不均匀性和时间上的非平稳性,提出了确定辽宁地区地震活动性参数的原则和方法,并据此给出了辽宁各潜在震源区的有关参数。这些参数包括起算震级Mo、震级上限Mu、b值、年发生率v、空间分布函数f_(?)、断层长轴方向及震源深度等。使用这些参数就可以进行地震危险性概率分析计算和地震危险区划。 相似文献
9.
基于广义帕累托分布构建地震活动性模型,因其输入参数取值难以避免不确定性,导致依据该模型所得的地震危险性估计结果具有不确定性。鉴于此,本文选取青藏高原东北缘为研究区,提出了基于全域敏感性分析的地震危险性估计的不确定性分析流程和方法。首先,利用地震活动性广义帕累托模型,进行研究区地震危险性估计;然后,选取地震记录的起始时间和震级阈值作为地震活动性模型的输入参数,采用具有全域敏感性分析功能的E-FAST方法,对上述两个参数的不确定性以及两参数之间的相互作用对地震危险性估计不确定性的影响进行定量分析。结果表明：地震危险性估计结果（不同重现期的震级重现水平、震级上限及相应的置信区间）对两个输入参数中的震级阈值更为敏感;不同重现期的地震危险性估计结果对震级阈值的敏感程度不同;对不同的重现期而言,在影响地震危险性估计结果的不确定性上,两个输入参数之间存在非线性效应,且非线性效应程度不同。本文提出的不确定性分析流程和方法,可以推广应用于基于其它类型地震活动性模型的地震危险性估计不确定性分析。 相似文献
10.
11.
在莫尔-库仑理论中引用Drucker-Prager准则,对于基岩断层及其上的覆盖土体建立相应的弹塑性模型,观察在不同力学条件下（张应力、压应力、剪应力）,以及在基岩断层分别为正断或逆断作用下,上覆粉砂质土体和粘土质土体的错动变形。结果表明：在张应力作用下,粘土比砂土更易变形;在压应力作用下,砂土更易变形;而在剪应力作用下,粘土比砂土更易变形,且粘土抗剪强度越大,变形越大。在正断层作用下,在粉砂土与粘性土中所发生的变形并没有大的不同,而在逆断层载荷作用下,粉砂质土体比粘土质土体更容易变形位错。 相似文献
12.
Recent major seismic events, such as the Chi-Chi (1999) and the Wenchuan (2008) earthquakes occurred in Taiwan and China, have offered a variety of case histories on the performance of structures subjected to reverse faulting–induced deformation. A novel faulting mitigation method has recently been proposed, introducing a soft deformable wall barrier in order to divert the fault rupture away from the structure. This can be materialized by constructing a thick diaphragm-type soil bentonite wall (SBW) between the structure and the fault rupture path. The paper investigates the key parameters in designing such a SBW, aiming to mitigate the fault rupture hazard on shallow foundations. The paper employs a thoroughly validated finite element analysis methodology to explore the efficiency of a weak SBW barrier in protecting slab foundations from large tectonic deformation due to reverse faulting. A dimensional analysis is conducted in order to generalize the validity of the derived conclusions. The dimensionless formulation is then used to conduct a detailed parametric study, exploring the effect of SBW thickness w/H, depth HSBWl/H, and shear strength τsoil/τSBW, as well as the bedrock fault offset h/H, foundation surcharge load q/ρgB, and fault outcrop location s/B. It is shown that the wall thickness, depth, and shear strength should be designed on the basis of the magnitude of the bedrock fault offset, the location of the fault relative to the structure, and the shear strength of the soil. The efficiency of the weak barrier is improved using lower strength and stiffness material compared to the alluvium. A simplified preliminary design methodology is proposed, and presented in the form of a flowchart. 相似文献
13.
Dimitrios Loukidis George D. Bouckovalas Achilleas G. Papadimitriou 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2009,29(11-12):1389-1404
This paper presents results from numerical simulations of the propagation of an active dip–slip fault rupture through a uniform soil layer covering the rigid bedrock. Following verification of the numerical methodology against field evidence, a parametric study is performed for loose and dense sand, for normally consolidated and overconsolidated clay, as well as for different fault dip angles (normal and reverse faults) and for different thicknesses of the soil cover. The soil is modeled as an elasto-plastic, strain-softening material that obeys the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion. The study aims at establishing criteria for the approximate depiction of the location and the width of the zone with significant ground surface distortion, where the differential ground displacements induced by the fault rupture may threaten the integrity of man-mad structures. 相似文献
14.
地震后在断层两侧的强变形与破裂带是地震灾害最严重的区域.为系统、定量研究同震地表变形带特征及其影响因素,本研究建立了走滑断层的三维有限元模型,分别探讨了断层位错量、断层倾角、错动方式、上覆松散层厚度、沉积层土性等因素的影响规律.模拟结果显示：走滑断层同震地表变形表现为以断层为中心的近似对称单峰分布,强地表变形集中在断层两侧各50 m宽度范围,地表变形量峰值随位错量增加而增大,破裂带宽度也随位错量增加而增大,但增量逐渐减小,并趋于一个渐近值;断层倾角对地表变形与破裂带宽度影响表现为随倾角减小变形量峰值点向上盘小距离偏移;走滑兼正断位错引起的变形量峰值最大,但地表破裂带宽度最小,走滑兼逆断引起的变形量峰值最小,但地表破裂带宽度最大,直立纯走滑断层的两参量都居中;走滑断层地表变形量峰值随上覆松散层厚度增大而减小,但随厚度减小的速率逐渐变小,松散层厚度从5 m增加到20 m时,破裂带宽度随厚度增加而缓慢增加,但自厚度大于20 m时,破裂带宽度开始随厚度增加而逐渐下降;当不同土性覆盖层（粗砂、粉砂、黏土）厚度相同时,地震引起的地表变形量峰值自粗砂、粉砂、黏土逐次增大,当粗砂厚度为60 m以上时,3.6 m的同震水平位错已不能形成地表破裂,而粉砂的厚度为70 m以上,黏土的厚度则为75 m以上. 相似文献
15.
断层泥在基岩区断层新活动研究中的意义 总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21
断层泥在基岩区断层新活动研究中的意义在于：利用断层泥中粘土矿物的组合、成分、结晶程度可以判定断层活动时的物理环境；断层泥带的宽度与断层的位移量有一定的线性关系，从而可用于确定断层的位移量；断层泥的显微构造特征及其中石英碎砾的表面结构，可以提供有关断层活动方式、性质、期次、时代等重要信息。对断层泥进行包括野外详细观测、室内显微构造分析以及年龄测定在内的综合研究，是确定基岩区断层新活动特征的行之有效的方法。 相似文献
16.
利用2001年昆仑山口西MS8.1地震现场观测所提供的地表破裂同震位移数据,使用简单滑移弱化破裂模型,估算了发震主断层上的破裂传播速度. 该模型中考虑了断层破裂时动摩擦过程中应力上调和下调机制对地震波辐射能量分配的影响. 对比Bouchon和Valleacute;e有关昆仑山口西地震主断层破裂传播速度超过剪切波速度,甚至达到P波速度的结果, 采用动摩擦应力下调时的滑移弱化模型 (分数应力降模型),结果表明,伴随较高的地震波辐射效率,主断层的平均破裂传播速度等于或小于瑞利波速度,这与许力生和陈运泰的体波反演结果,以及陈学忠震源应力场估算的结果是一致的. 最后,联系到由地表破裂现象所反映出的断层力学特征,如与视应力相关的分数应力降 (动摩擦应力下调), 基于滑移弱化模型, 讨论了可能的震源破裂机制. 相似文献
17.
Understanding mass fluvial erosion along a bank profile: using PEEP technology for quantifying retreat lengths and identifying event timing 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou Christopher G. Wilson Achilles G. Tsakiris Tommy E. Sutarto Fabienne Bertrand Massimo Rinaldi Subhasish Dey Eddy Langendoen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(11):1717-1732
This study provides fundamental examination of mass fluvial erosion along a stream bank by identifying event timing, quantifying retreat lengths, and providing ranges of incipient shear stress for hydraulically driven erosion. Mass fluvial erosion is defined here as the detachment of thin soil layers or conglomerates from the bank face under higher hydraulic shear stresses relative to surface fluvial erosion, or the entrainment of individual grains or aggregates under lower hydraulic shear stresses. We explore the relationship between the two regimes in a representative, US Midwestern stream with semi‐cohesive bank soils, namely Clear Creek, IA. Photo‐Electronic Erosion Pins (PEEPs) provide, for the first time, in situ measurements of mass fluvial erosion retreat lengths during a season. The PEEPs were installed at identical locations where surface fluvial erosion measurements exist for identifying the transition point between the two regimes. This transition is postulated to occur when the applied shear stress surpasses a second threshold, namely the critical shear stress for mass fluvial erosion. We hypothesize that the regimes are intricately related and surface fluvial erosion can facilitate mass fluvial erosion. Selective entrainment of unbound/exposed, mostly silt‐sized particles at low shear stresses over sand‐sized sediment can armor the bank surface, limiting the removal of the underlying soil. The armoring here is enhanced by cementation from the presence of optimal levels of sand and clay. Select studies show that fluvial erosion strength can increase several‐fold when appropriate amounts of sand and clay are mixed and cement together. Hence, soil layers or conglomerates are entrained with higher flows. The critical shear stress for mass fluvial erosion was found to be an order of magnitude higher than that of surface fluvial erosion, and proceeded with higher (approximately 2–4 times) erodibility. The results were well represented by a mechanistic detachment model that captures the two regimes. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
With co-seismic surface rupture slip displacements provided by the field observation for the 2001 MS8.1 West Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake, this paper estimates the rupture speed on the main faulting segment with a long straight fault trace on the surface based on a simple slip-weakening rupture model, in which the frictional overshoot or undershoot are involved in consideration of energy partition during the earthquake faulting. In contrast to the study of Bouchon and Vallée, in which the rupture propagation along the main fault could exceed the local shear-wave speed, perhaps reach the P-wave speed on a certain section of fault, our results show that, under a slip-weakening assumption combined with a frictional undershoot (partial stress drop model), average rupture speed should be equal to or less than the Rayleigh wave speed with a high seismic radiation efficiency, which is consistent with the result derived by waveform inversion and the result estimated from source stress field. Associated with the surface rupture mechanism, such as partial stress drop (frictional undershoot) associated with the apparent stress, an alternative rupture mechanism based on the slip-weakening model has also been discussed. 相似文献
19.
Surface fault rupture has caused significant damage to structures in several earthquakes. The propagation of the bedrock fault rupture through the overlying soil deposit has been studied by several researchers; however, the effects of fault rupture dynamics, as opposed to pseudostatic fault movement, have not yet been evaluated. There is the potential for dynamic effects to influence significantly structural damage due to the rapid rate of deformation imposed by surface fault rupture. Numerical simulations are performed to analyze the effects of the rate of fault rupture on dip-slip surface fault rupture for free-field and soil-structure interaction conditions. The numerical results indicate that in some limited scenarios, fault rupture dynamics can influence the amount of structural damage expected for a structure located near a fault. However, in most scenarios, fault rupture dynamics is expected to play a secondary role compared to fault, soil, and structural characteristics in evaluating building performance. 相似文献
20.
An M 8.1 earthquake that occurred west of the Kunlun Mountains Pass has caused more than 20 collapse bodies or zones, which are mainly distributed near the surface seismic rupture zone, west of Hoh Sai Lake. The collapses are of four types, bedrock, soil mass and ice mass collapses and avalanches. The spatial distribution and the characteristics of development of the collapses are analyzed in the paper. Comparised with those caused by other earthquakes, the collapses are smaller in scale. In addition to the lithological characteristics of the crustal media, topographic, geomorphic and climatic factors, weaker seismic ground motion is an important cause for formation of the smaller-scale collapses. The long surface rupture zone and weaker ground motion are important features of the seismic rupture, which may be related to the structure of the preexisting fault. 相似文献