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1.
《Engineering Geology》2001,59(1-2):51-58
On the basis of the investigation and statistic analysis of the landslide hazards in the forereservoir region of the Three Gorges Project on the Yangtze River, the major factors that are found to have affected the slope stabilities are outlined, and a zonation of landslide hazards of the region is made using an integrated information model. It is divided into destructive, disastrous, slightly disastrous, likely disastrous and essentially non-disastrous areas. The first two cover an area of less than 5% of the total region, and are at a distance of more than 20 km from the Three Gorges dam, and so a landslide over there will impose no direct impact to the TGP, but may effect to some degree the navigation of the Yangtze River and nearby highway transportation, reservoir slopes, and building of cities and towns. 相似文献
2.
滑坡预警判据初步研究--以三峡库区为例 总被引：17，自引：2，他引：15
在三峡库区典型地段滑坡灾害调查评价和统计分析的基础上,结合典型滑坡变形发展的阶段性变形现象、标志和临界诱发因素分析,初步提出3个层次的滑坡预警预报判据27条,包括:(1)滑坡空间预测识别判据11条,主要用于滑坡或潜在危岩体空间识别和危险性区划,是滑坡空间预测的基本判据;(2)滑坡状态判据7条,主要用于滑坡单体稳定性评价的亚临界-临界状态预警判据,是滑坡状态预警判据系统的重要组成部分;(3)滑坡临界时间预报判据9条,主要用于单体滑坡剧烈变形或临滑预报,是滑坡时间预报研究的关键判据. 相似文献
3.
Regional assessment of landslide impact in the Three Gorges area, China, using ASTER data: Wushan-Zigui 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper is focussed on the hazard impact of landslides in the Three Gorges, and represents the progression of our ongoing
study on regional land instability assessment in the Three Gorges area using imagery data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal
Emission Radiometer (ASTER). The key development here is the establishment of a model that integrates land instability with
several factors that can relate hazard to human life, such as slope failures occurring in proximity to built-up areas and
roads, and areas of high landslide risk along the bank of Yangtze and its major tributaries. The method correctly identifies
some of the known destructive landslides in the region, like Qianjiangping and Huangtupo, as belonging to areas of potentially
high landslide impact. Our results suggest that several population centres, including the towns of Wushan and Badong, are
rated at high landslide hazard levels. This study highlights the importance of differentiating between landslide types within
susceptibility assessment, and identifies those locations in the Three Gorges where the probability of landslide occurrence
with negative impact to life and property is greatest. 相似文献
4.
三峡库区涉水滑坡众多,目前库岸滑坡空间发育规律及其影响因素尚不明确.收集三峡大坝至库尾江津长江两岸593处滑坡相关资料,选取地层岩性、斜坡结构、高程与坡度作为滑坡关键控制因素及库水作用这一诱发因素.沿三峡大坝追溯至库尾,根据不同影响因子把干流库岸进行分段研究,统计滑坡在各影响因子中的分布特征,分析其分布规律及内在机理,可得以下结论:（1）受不同岩组的工程地质性质差异,干流库岸稳定性差异较大,造成滑坡在空间分布上呈显著区域差异性与分带性特征;（2）在同一岩组的左、右两岸或上下游段滑坡发育密度呈明显局部差异性,其主要受斜坡结构影响,顺向坡中发育密度明显高于横向坡与逆向坡;（3）由于地形地貌条件及库水作用影响,滑坡后缘高程与坡度由库首至库尾逐渐降低,而前缘主要集中于100~175 m,滑坡复活变形的最主要诱发因素为库水位升降作用,当水位作用于滑坡中前部时影响效果最明显,影响时效随着滑坡逐年变形应力调整后逐渐减弱.研究结果为三峡库区滑坡防治提供了一定依据. 相似文献
5.
基于GIS的小江断裂中北段滑坡灾害危险性评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
小江断裂中北段作为金沙江下游重大水电工程库区内最重要的活动断裂构造,其沿线滑坡地质灾害发育,严重制约了当地的经济和社会发展。在详细调查了小江断裂中北段沿线滑坡地质灾害的基础上,选取了坡度、坡向、工程地质岩组、岸坡结构、断裂构造等9个影响因子作为评价指标,对研究区滑坡灾害的发育分布规律进行了分析研究,并采用AHP-CF法建立了滑坡灾害危险性评价模型,利用GIS空间分析功能得出了研究区滑坡地质灾害危险性分区。通过检验曲线验证滑坡地质危险性评价结果可知,AUC值为80%。 相似文献
6.
堆积层滑坡是库区常见的滑坡类型之一,而地形坡度是滑坡发育的重要内因,研究地形坡度与堆积层滑坡发生概率之间的关系对水库型堆积层滑坡的危险性评价具有重要意义。以三峡库区及丹江口库区的139处堆积层滑坡为例,首先,将滑坡地形坡度以每隔5划分为一个区间,总共分为7个区间; 在此基础上,采用贡献率方法,定量研究了地形坡度分别对滑坡数量、面积、体积的贡献率; 最后,通过迭加统计,得到了不同坡度区间对滑坡发生的综合贡献率。结果表明, 15～25的地形坡度对水库型堆积层滑坡的贡献率最高, 10～15及25～30的地形坡度对水库型堆积层滑坡的贡献率中等,小于10及大于30的地形坡度对水库型堆积层滑坡的贡献率最小。研究结果可为具有类似地质背景的水库型堆积层滑坡危险性评估及防治规划提供参考依据。 相似文献
7.
白云峰 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2005,16(2):43-46
乌江是黔东北和渝东南少数民族地区与外界联系的一条水上黄金通道。担负了流域内80％以上的客货运输量。满足了沿岸2000多万人民生产和生活必需品运输的需要。乌江下游的彭水县城至涪陵市是乌江进入长江航运的咽喉要道，沿岸广泛分布和频繁发生的滑坡严重地威胁着航运的安全。通过现场调查发现，在长约150km范围内，两岸共发育各类滑坡28个，发育线模数为0．187个／km。沿岸滑坡发育形式主要为岩石顺层滑坡和风化堆积层滑坡。沿岸滑坡具有群发性的分布特征，与地层岩性和河谷岸坡类型等密切相关。岩石顺层滑坡主要集中分布在顺向岸坡软、硬岩层相间地段。风化堆积层滑坡则主要分布在软岩地层及其风化物堆积的岸坡地段。构造变动、河流的切蚀作用及人类活动是滑坡发育形成的主要原因，暴雨和长时间降雨是滑坡发生的重要诱发因素。目前，多数滑坡处于稳定状态，少数滑坡受降雨及江水涨落的影响而处于周期性蠕动变形状态。三峡水库蓄水后，部分滑坡有复活的可能。 相似文献
8.
On evaluating the stability of the Baiyian ancient landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,Yangtze River: a geological history analysis 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Numerous landslides have occurred during the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir of the Yangtze River. Although the
underlying causal factor of these landslides was heavy rainfall, the construction process was the trigger of some of them.
We report here a systematic study aimed at reconstructing the geological history of an ancient landslide and, based on our
results, an evaluation of the role of the history on current landslide stability. Data from detailed field surveys and the
studies on geological dating revealed that the Baiyian landslide was composed of five structural parts of different geological
ages, such as a sliding belt, disturbed rocks, ancient colluvium, alluvium of the Yangtze River and slope wash. The succession
of ancient climates, terraces and tectonic processes in the study area were examined from 300 ka ago. The evolutionary history
of the Baiyian ancient landslide can be divided into five distinct stages: development, occurrence, deposition, collapse and
disintegration. Some parts of the ancient landslide are currently prone to instability due to the combination effects of heavy
rainfall and construction of the reservoir. 相似文献
9.
Landsliding triggered by reservoir operation: a general conceptual model with a case study at Three Gorges Reservoir 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The Three Gorge Reservoir, one of the largest civil engineering projects in human history, dams the Yangtze River to form a 660-km-long and 1.13-km-wide reservoir. Today, although the project has been completed and is in normal operation, the on-going landslide initiation and movement in response to the reservoir operating is one of the main geologic hazards. The Huangtupo (meaning “yellow soil slope” in Chinese) Slope typifies such on-going landslides along the reservoir. Observations from a multi-year monitoring program conducted on this slope indicate that there are multiple slides on the reservoir banks that move episodically into the reservoir and their movements appear to be highly correlated with the initial and seasonal changes in the reservoir pool level. A hydro-mechanical numerical model is constructed to investigate the quantitative links among the episodic movements and the variations in pore water pressure, suction stress, hydrostatic reservoir water loading, and slope self-weight induced by the fluctuating water levels. Modeling results identify regions within the variably saturated slope where significant changes in stress occur during the periods of the initial impoundment that raised water levels from 68 to 135 m and that occur in response to seasonal fluctuations of the reservoir pool level between 145 and 175 m. We find that the rise or decline of reservoir pool level can either increase or decrease the stability of landslide. In general, hydrostatic reservoir water loading has positive correlation with the stability; pore water pressure and suction stress have negative correlation with the stability; and the effects of slope self-weight depend on the dip angle and mechanical properties of sliding surface. 相似文献
10.
水动力型滑坡是指在冰川融雪、降雨、水位变动、地表径流及地下水活动等水动力因素驱动下而发生的斜坡岩土体失稳灾害。西南地区是水动力型滑坡尤其是库区滑坡的高发区,其失稳破坏直接威胁到人类的生命财产和基础设施的安全,且有可能造成深远的次生灾害,提升水动力型滑坡灾害的监测预警、综合防控与应急处置水平极为迫切。水动力型滑坡易发于松散堆积层、破碎岩体、软岩以及含有软弱夹层的斜坡等地层,地质环境、水文活动以及人类活动干扰等因素的长期作用在水动力型滑坡的孕育过程中起着关键作用。斜坡在各种不利因素的持续交替作用下,逐渐产生变形破坏,稳定性不断降低并趋于极限失稳状态,最终在短期水文条件的改变下而导致整体失稳破坏。斜坡失稳后的滑坡动力过程非常复杂,尤其是特大型高位滑坡,在运动过程中可能会产生强烈的冲击破碎和沿程侵蚀铲刮现象,导致滑坡运动性态的改变和堆积方量的增大,水的存在会加剧滑坡沿程侵蚀铲刮作用以及导致运动性态向流态化转变而造成更远的运动距离和更广的致灾范围。水动力型滑坡是一个复杂的系统性问题,不同地质结构和水动力条件的滑坡变形破坏过程存在很大差异,远距离非接触式滑坡早期识别与监测技术以及基于人工智能和大数据且具备自主学习的滑坡预报预警方法是未来重要发展方向。水动力型滑坡防治涉及到工程建设、经济民生、社会等多方面因素,需要综合运用工程措施和非工程措施。在未来水利水电工程建设过程中,应重视库区滑坡的危害性,复建设施的修建应尽可能远离库区滑坡影响区。 相似文献
11.
水库诱发滑坡作为重大工程对地质环境影响的一种重要形式,是国内外工程地质学科研究的前沿和热点。金沙江流域地处青藏高原东缘高山峡谷区,地质环境脆弱,水能资源丰富,是世界上水电站建设最密集的地区之一,规划了25级梯级电站,但是水库蓄水对岸坡改造的时空效应尚不清楚。本文以溪洛渡水电站为例,对金沙江流域水库诱发滑坡的分布规律进行研究,利用2013~2020年多期遥感影像解译溪洛渡库区范围内的水库诱发滑坡,共解译滑坡433处。在此基础上,对水库诱发滑坡数量和面积随蓄水时间的变化趋势进行了分析,随后利用频率比法对水库诱发滑坡的分布与高程、坡度、坡向、工程地质岩组、断裂、距死水位距离6个因素的关系进行了统计分析,同时进行了各个单因子的滑坡易发性评价,利用曲线下面积AUC法验证了评价结果的可靠性,并基于评价结果选取了高程、距断裂距离、坡度、距死水位距离4个因素进行了水库诱发滑坡易发性评价。研究认为:(1)水库诱发滑坡主要发生在蓄水初期3~4年内,之后滑坡数量和面积逐渐减少,岸坡表生演化逐渐趋于稳定。(2)库区内水库诱发滑坡主要分布在高程1 km以内,2 km以上无诱发滑坡分布,优势坡度为30°~60°,发育滑坡的斜坡坡向以SE、W和NW向为主;在距断裂400~3200 m范围内更有利于滑坡发育;距死水位100~200 m范围内灾害发育数量最多。(3)易发性评价验证AUC高达0.912,评价结果可信度较好。(4)水库诱发滑坡的主控因素为距死水位距离和高程,极高易发区与高易发区主要分布在距死水位400 m以内、高程1 km以下的范围内。本文首次利用多期遥感影像建立了溪洛渡水电站水库诱发滑坡数据库,研究结果能够为已建水电站正常运营、未建及在建水电站的规划建设和防灾减灾提供借鉴。 相似文献
12.
从实测数据中分析滑坡灾害的成因机理,对于准确识别潜在危险区与及时制定防治措施十分重要。由于现场监测数据的数量庞大、来源多样,常规的数据处理方法难以从海量监测数据中提取出有用的信息,进而对滑坡变形演化趋势作出正确评价和预测。本文基于经典数据挖掘方法中的两步聚类法与关联规则分析,提出了滑坡变形行为的关联分析挖掘技术,并以长江三峡库区新铺滑坡为例,对库水位波动及降雨影响下的特大滑坡位移速率进行了关联分析。结果表明:该滑坡的变形受库水位高程水平、库水位波动速率与降雨强度等因素的多重影响,水位下降、强降雨与滑坡变形密切相关;滑坡不同空间位置处的变形影响因素存在差异,由坡脚至坡顶,库水位波动的影响水平依次降低,降雨强度的影响水平逐渐增强。本文提出的数据挖掘方法可定量分析滑坡变形的控制因素,并通过与实测数据的对比验证了相关规则的可靠性,这对于海量监测数据条件下滑坡灾害的成因分析有重要意义。 相似文献
13.
Integrated use of GIS and remote sensing for monitoring landslides in transportation pavements: the case study of Paphos area in Cyprus 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
D. D. Alexakis A. Agapiou M. Tzouvaras K. Themistocleous K. Neocleous S. Michaelides D. G. Hadjimitsis 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(1):119-141
This study considers the impact of landslides on transportation pavements in rural road network of Cyprus using remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) techniques. Landslides are considered to be one of the most extreme natural hazards worldwide, causing both human losses and severe damages to the transportation network. Risk assessment for monitoring a road network is based on the combination of the probability of landslides occurrence and the extent and severity of the resultant consequences should the disasters (landslides) occur. Factors that can trigger landslide episodes include proximity to active faults, geological formations, fracture zones, degree and high curvature of slopes, water conditions, etc. In this study, the reliability and vulnerability of a rural network are examined. Initially, landslide locations were identified from the interpretation of satellite images. Different geomorphological factors such as aspect, slope, distance from the watershed, lithology, distance from lineaments, topographic curvature, land use and vegetation regime derived from satellite images were selected and incorporated in GIS environment in order to develop a decision support and continuous landslide monitoring system of the area. These parameters were then used in the final landslide hazard assessment model based on the analytic hierarchy process method. The results indicated good correlation between classified high-hazard areas and field-confirmed slope failures. The CA Markov model was also used to predict the landslide hazard zonation map for 2020 and the possible future hazards for transportation pavements. The proposed methodology can be used for areas with similar physiographic conditions all over the Eastern Mediterranean region. 相似文献
14.
Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Nussaïbah B. Raja Ihsan Çiçek Necla Türkoğlu Olgu Aydin Akiyuki Kawasaki 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(3):1323-1346
Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams. 相似文献
15.
高原山区地质灾害是交通线路最大的危害,而有效避险的关键是掌握沿途地质灾害发生的工程地质条件内因及诱导因素。本文以川西阿坝州高原山区金小公路沿线带状区域内的滑坡、崩塌为研究对象,以地理、地质、气象、遥感资料和实地调查为基础,运用空间分析和数理统计方法,对其形成的影响因素进行了系统研究。结果表明:（1）金汤弧形褶皱形成的同时,区内软硬互层的炭质泥岩、粉砂质泥岩、粉砂岩的地层发生劈理化,喜山期构造运动及频繁的地震活动,加剧了岩石的破碎程度,为区内滑坡、崩塌提供了物源,并为高山峡谷地形地貌的塑造创造了有利条件;（2）区内6–9月份的集中降雨是诱发滑坡、崩塌的主要因素;（3）高山、峡谷、高角度斜坡等地形地貌以及公路建设中坡脚开挖为崩塌、滑坡等埋下了隐患;（4）季节性冻融作用加速了基岩风化破坏,对滑坡、崩塌的形成具有促进作用。 相似文献
16.
全新世以来青藏高原东部巴塘断裂带活动强烈,地形地貌和地质构造复杂,历史地震频发,并诱发大量滑坡灾害。基于巴塘断裂带地震滑坡长期防控的需要,在分析区域地质灾害成灾背景和发育分布特征的基础上,采用Newmark模型完成了巴塘断裂带50年超越概率10%的潜在地震滑坡危险性预测评价,并完成地震滑坡危险性区划。结果表明:巴塘断裂带及其临近的金沙江断裂带区域、金沙江及其支流沿岸具有较高的潜在地震滑坡危险性,地震滑坡危险区具有沿断裂带和大江大河等峡谷区分布的总体趋势,受活动断裂和地形地貌影响显著;距离断层越近、坡度越大的斜坡,地震滑坡危险性越高;规划建设中的川藏铁路经巴塘县德达乡、白玉县沙马乡,向西北延伸,跨越金沙江,可以穿越较少的地震滑坡危险区,金沙江水电工程规划建设需加强潜在地震滑坡危害研判及防控。巴塘断裂带潜在地震滑坡危险性评价结果可为区域城镇开发和重大工程规划建设的地震滑坡长期防控提供科学参考。 相似文献
17.
滑坡系统静动态规律及斜坡不稳定性空时定量预测 总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21
文章基于近数年来室内外测绘试验分析研究工作,论述了滑坡静、动态规律。针对其群体“静态” 规律,论证了斜坡不稳定性空间定量预测的某些基本原理方法;针对其群、单体动态规律讨论了滑坡灾害暴发时间的预测预报基础技术。从系统论观点出发,概括了滑坡系统空时定量预测的三类数学模型——确定性、随机性及灰色系统模型的基本分工和联合模式的勾通特点与功能。文章以陕西东南部变质岩滑坡和长江中上游中生界砂泥岩地层滑坡为实例,讨论了斜坡不稳定性空、时定量预测的重点研究成果。文末概括了几点重要结论。 相似文献
18.
Assessment of shallow landslides from Hurricane Mitch in central America using a physically based model 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
Shallow landslides induced by heavy rainfall events represent one of the most disastrous hazards in mountainous regions because
of their high frequency and rapid mobility. Recent advancements in the availability and accessibility of remote sensing data,
including topography, land cover and precipitation products, allow landslide hazard assessment to be considered at larger
spatial scales. A theoretical framework for a landslide forecasting system was prototyped in this study using several remotely
sensed and surface parameters. The applied physical model SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium (SLIDE) takes into account
some simplified hypotheses on water infiltration and defines a direct relation between factor of safety and the rainfall depth
on an infinite slope. This prototype model is applied to a case study in Honduras during Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Two study
areas were selected where a high density of shallow landslides occurred, covering approximately 1,200 km2. The results were quantitatively evaluated using landslide inventory data compiled by the United States Geological Survey
(USGS) following Hurricane Mitch’s landfall. The agreement between the SLIDE modeling results and landslide observations demonstrates
good predictive skill and suggests that this framework could serve as a potential tool for the future early landslide warning
systems. Results show that within the two study areas, the values of rates of successful estimation of slope failure locations
reached as high as 78 and 75%, while the error indices were 35 and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model
is limited by several assumptions including using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic
information. Advantages and limitations of this physically based model are discussed with respect to future applications of
landslide assessment and prediction over large scales. 相似文献
19.
长江三峡库区滑坡与构造活动的关系 总被引：15，自引：2，他引：13
论文总结了三峡库区的新构造活动规律及其与滑坡之间的关系。三峡库区新构造运动呈现出良好的阶段性 ,具体表现为 :地壳快速隆升期与相对稳定的阶地发育期相间 ,断裂活动、地震活动活跃期与宁静期相间。滑坡也具有阶段性 ,并且与构造活动阶段性之间有一一对应关系 ,即滑坡的高峰期对应着构造活动的高峰期。这些说明 ,在新构造期构造活动因素在三峡滑坡的发育过程中起着重要的作用。依据地震的活动周期显示 ,在未来的一定时期内构造活动处于平静期 ,人类活动可能成为滑坡的主要影响因素。 相似文献
20.
High incidences of slope movement are observed throughout Cuyahoga River watershed in northeast Ohio, USA. The major type of slope failure involves rotational movement in steep stream walls where erosion of the banks creates over-steepened slopes. The occurrence of landslides in the area depends on a complex interaction of natural as well as human induced factors, including: rock and soil strength, slope geometry, permeability, precipitation, presence of old landslides, proximity to streams and flood-prone areas, land use patterns, excavation of lower slopes and/or increasing the load on upper slopes, alteration of surface and subsurface drainage. These factors were used to evaluate the landslide-induced hazard in Cuyahoga River watershed using logistic regression analysis, and a landslide susceptibility map was produced in ArcGIS. The map classified land into four categories of landslide susceptibility: low, moderate, high, and very high. The susceptibility map was validated using known landslide locations within the watershed area. The landslide susceptibility map produced by the logistic regression model can be efficiently used to monitor potential landslide-related problems, and, in turn, can help to reduce hazards associated with landslides. 相似文献