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《地震地质》2017,(5)
研究火山喷发现象的历史记载对确定历史火山喷发事件及其年代具有重要意义。根据朝鲜半岛历史文献,系统整理和研究历史火山喷发现象的记载后,得出如下认识:1)直观的历史火山喷发事件有公元1002年济州岛火山喷发、1007年济州岛以西近海火山喷发和1597年中国吉林长白县境内的望天鹅火山喷发。2)根据"雨灰"(火山灰)记载可确定的火山喷发事件分别发生在公元1265、1401—1405、1668、1673、1702年等,推测均为长白山天池火山喷发。3)公元1373年的"雨白毛"(火山毛)记载,推测为长白山天池火山喷发事件。4)公元1533年的"天火",若其为火山喷发物,则可能是长白山天池火山喷发。公元1601—1609年的"天火",可能是中国吉林龙岗火山喷发事件,或是长白山天池火山喷发事件。5)史料记载的"雨土"乃是黄土沉降现象并非火山灰。依据"雨土"提出的长白山火山喷发事件不成立。 相似文献
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在人类历史记载中火山喷发已成为骇人听闻的事件,公元76年意大利维苏威火山喷发吞噬整个庞贝古城一例已成为千古遗训;1883年印度尼西亚克拉克托火山喷发毁灭了一个火山岛,造成5万人死亡,声震1万里,灰撒三大洋。诸如此类的事件在现代火山喷发史上亦不乏其例, 相似文献
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《地球物理学进展》2016,(5)
本文运用可公度计算及时空对称性理论,结合蝴蝶结构图及可公度结构图对印度尼西亚地区1900年以来VEI≥4火山喷发活动进行趋势判断分析,结果显示:(1)运用三元、四元、五元可公度可知2018年印度尼西亚地区发生VEI≥4火山喷发事件的信号较强.(2)结合蝴蝶结构图及可公度结构系计算得出,2018年印度尼西亚地区发生VEI≥4火山喷发事件的随机概率为45.5%,不漏报置信水平为41.6%.(3)通过经纬度迁移分析,发现其在空间上有一定的迁移规律;纬向迁移对称轴在3.5°S左右,经向迁移对称轴在115°E左右.未来火山喷发事件有可能向东北方迁移.(4)太阳黑子数周期年份与火山喷发有很好的对应性,即火山喷发事件多发生在太阳黑子数下降阶段,在太阳黑子数上升阶段发生火山喷发事件的概率较小,在太阳黑子数峰年和谷年也会发生火山喷发事件,但发生概率明显小于太阳黑子数下降阶段的概率. 相似文献
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介绍了全球四条火山带后,概述了大陆火山构造地震同步活动的一些论点,指出不仅全球火山带与地震活动带在空间上十分叠合,而且火山喷发与强烈地震活动的时间也显示出同步现象;还列举了一些事例和一览表,以及中国火山喷发及其构造地震带的重合现象;文章在结语中指出,对此开展研究,有助于强震预测。 相似文献
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长白山天池火山位于中国和朝鲜两国边境线上, 借助国际合作, 对分布于中朝两国境内的天池火山喷发物进行了较系统的野外考查, 选择层序完整的火山喷发物剖面, 对天池火山进行整体研究. 在此基础上, 系统测定了天池火山历史时期大喷发从早期到晚期喷出的气体成分和含量, 进而探讨了该火山气体对环境的影响及其造成的火山灾害, 并利用天池火山气体成分和含量开展了该火山未来喷发危险性及其潜在火山灾害预测研究, 这一方法对进一步开展我国大陆活火山的喷发预测及其火山灾害防御研究具有重要意义. 相似文献
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本文从库仑破裂应力与动态应力触发原理、观测事实与研究现状以及存在的问题与展望等3个方面介绍了动态应力触发的研究进展。其中,在主震对余震活动、强震对后续远场地震活动、不同破裂类型的地震之间及强震对火山(泥火山)的动态应力触发作用、一次大地震中子事件之间的动态应力触发关系以及动态应力触发的时间延迟等方面进行了详细讨论。分析认为,动态应力触发理论在解释震后余震分布、远程触发以及对火山触发性喷发等方面得到了较好的结果;动态应力触发可能会受断层破裂方式和方向的影响;大地震中子事件之间的动态应力触发关系对震源研究有重要意义;动态应力触发现象普遍存在时间延迟。 相似文献
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以《中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪——公元1911年)》为基础,将目录中给出的震中精度参数在分段时间和分段震级上进行统计分析,并给出各类精度地震的地理分布．研究结果表明, 58.4%的历史强震震中精度都在3类及以上,其震中不确定范围大于25 km;一般来说,年代越久远的历史地震,其震中精度越差,而且公元1500年以后的历史强震低精度地震所占比例仍然不小;MS6.0以上的历史强震, 3类、 4类和5类精度地震占了60.1 %;不同精度历史强震的地理分布各有特点,云南省1类、 2类精度地震最多,而新疆和西藏的历史强震绝大部分都是低精度地震事件．以震中精度表述的历史强震震中位置不确定性会对潜在震源区划分、近场区地震活动性研究以及地震构造环境评价等工作造成影响,因此在地震危险性研究与地震地质工作中,都需对低精度历史地震重新考证或适当取舍． 相似文献
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Historical eclipses and Earth's rotation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
F Richard Stephenson 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2003,44(2):2.22-2.27
F Richard Stephenson took a long view of Earth's rotation history in the 2002 Harold Jeffreys Lecture in October. 相似文献
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Inference and Assumption in Historical Seismology 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
R. M. W. Musson 《Surveys in Geophysics》1998,19(2):189-203
The principal aim in studies of historical earthquakes is usually to be able to derive parameters for past earthquakes from macroseismic or other data and thus extend back in time parametric earthquake catalogues, often with improved seismic hazard studies as the ultimate goal. In cases of relatively recent historical earthquakes, for example, those of the 18th and 19th centuries, it is often the case that there is such an abundance of available macroseismic data that estimating earthquake parameters is relatively straightforward. For earlier historical periods, especially medieval and earlier, and also for areas where settlement or documentation are sparse, the situation is much harder. The seismologist often finds that he has only a few data points (or even one) for an earthquake that nevertheless appears to be regionally significant.In such cases, it is natural that the investigator will attempt to make the most of the available data, expanding it by making working assumptions, and from these deriving conclusions by inference (i.e. the process of proceeding logically from some premise). This can be seen in a number of existing studies; in some cases extremely slight data are so magnified by the use of inference that one must regard the results as tentative in the extreme. Two main types of inference can be distinguished. The first type is inference from documentation. This is where assumptions are made such as: the absence of a report of the earthquake from this monastic chronicle indicates that at this locality the earthquake was not felt. The second type is inference from seismicity. Here one deals with arguments such as all recent earthquakes felt at town X are events occurring in seismic zone Y, therefore this ancient earthquake which is only reported at town X probably also occurred in this zone.While in many cases such assumptions may very well be correct, they are usually not testable – or at least untested. Furthermore, it is possible to produce numerous contrary examples. It is concluded that the use of inference to amplify poor data must be made very transparent to the end user of the results, to avoid misleading appearances of accuracy. In many cases it may be best to abandon the quest for parameters altogether and admit that the data are inadequate. 相似文献
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Historical trends in Florida temperature and precipitation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Michelle M. Irizarry‐Ortiz Jayantha Obeysekera Joseph Park Paul Trimble Jenifer Barnes Winifred Park‐Said Erik Gadzinski 《水文研究》2013,27(16):2225-2246
Because of its low topographic relief, unique hydrology, and the large interannual variability of precipitation, Florida is especially vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we investigate a comprehensive collection of climate metrics to study historical trends in both averages and extremes of precipitation and temperature in the state. The data investigated consist of long‐term records (1892–2008) of precipitation and raw (unadjusted) temperature at 32 stations distributed throughout the state. To evaluate trends in climate metrics, we use an iterative pre‐whitening method, which aims to separate positive autocorrelation from trend present in time series. Results show a general decrease in wet season precipitation, most evident for the month of May and possibly tied to a delayed onset of the wet season. In contrast, there seems to be an increase in the number of wet days during the dry season, especially during November through January. We found that the number of dog days (above 26.7 °C) during the year and during the wet season has increased at many locations. For the post‐1950 period, a widespread decrease in the daily temperature range (DTR) is observed mainly because of increased daily minimum temperature (Tmin). Although we did not attempt to formally attribute these trends to natural versus anthropogenic causes, we find that the urban heat island effect is at least partially responsible for the increase in Tmin and its corresponding decrease in DTR at urbanized stations compared with nearby rural stations. In the future, a formal trend attribution study should be conducted for the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Historical earthquakes and a tsunami in Bohai Sea 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
王健 《地震学报(英文版)》2007,20(5):584-592
Quantitative analysis on seismicity showed that there are several seismic dense zones in Bohai Sea. These seismic dense zones of modern small earthquakes behave prominent NE orientation, although a seismic dense zone with NW direction exists actually. Taking 39°N as a boundary, seismicity in the south is different from that in north of Bohai Sea. Almost all strong earthquakes and seismic dense zones are concentrated in the southern part. Based on archives and seismic dense characteristics, we amended the epicenter of strong earthquakes in 1548 and discussed about magnitude of the earthquake in 1888. Possibility of the event in 173 as a tsunami was discussed. The event in 1597 was doubted as a strong earthquake in Bohai Sea. 相似文献
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前兆台网历史数据迁移与整合 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
长期以来,前兆数据的多系统、多格式、多流程给数据管理和应用带来了很大的复杂性.为此,全国实施了前兆历史数据迁移,将“九五”、模拟和人工观测历史数据迁移到“十五”数据库系统中,并解决了迁移中的代码对应、数据量纲或单位转换、数据衔接、错误纠正、数据库结构差异、数据同步等问题,整合了前兆数据系统,为数据应用带来极大便利,切实提升了前兆数据管理和共享服务能力.本文详细介绍了前兆历史数据迁移的内容、工作流程和工具软件、迁移中的技术难点、取得的成果,以及存在的问题等. 相似文献
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历史地震资料与地震的中长期预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
故障诊断模型的基本内容是根据动态系统的外部特征来判断系统内部是否发生故障及确定故障发生的部位、时间和大小。由于故障诊断技术在监测及诊断故障的思路上和地震预报有很多相似之处，因此，把故障诊断技术应用于地震预报是可行的。由于该模型与其他数学模型一样，需要有较多的学习过程，所以历史地震资料在该模型中有重要作用。而其中的鲁棒性故障诊断模型在抑制各子模型的个性，凸现其共性方面有其特有的性质，所以把它作为一种综合模型，能抑制各子模型的个性，突出在地震预测方面的共性，从而提高预测的精确性。本文根据一个实例，说明了这种综合性模型的可行性。在文章的最后，由信息量的分析，说明了模型的鲁棒性特征。 相似文献