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Jeen-Shang Lin 《地震工程与结构动力学》1990,19(6):911-923
A method for constructing seismic slope failure probability matrices is presented. The core of the method is a probabilistic sliding block model which allows for systematic incorporation of the uncertainties associated with both the ground excitation and the strength of the slope materials. The extent of damage to a slope is defined in terms of the magnitude of the earthquake-induced permanent displacement. The intensity of the ground shaking is characterized by a peak ground acceleration as well as an earthquake magnitude, and the possible scatter in the ground motion details is included through the use of an equivalent stationary motion model. After the effects of essential contributing factors are discussed, regional seismic slope failure probability matrices are presented for general applications. 相似文献
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顺层岩质边坡的抗震性指标大部分都是非确定的,无法用固定阈值衡量。提出基于非确定性分析法的顺层边坡抗震性性能研究,将顺层岩质边坡看作若干个叠加的薄板;运用非确定性分析法计算各个薄板的动力安全系数和动力极限状态方程,并对顺层边坡动力极限状态方程进行求解,可得在地震作用力下顺层边坡动力可靠度指标与顺层边坡失效概率之间的关系;评估地震作用力下顺层边坡整体稳定性,同时综合考量顺岩边坡的最小平均安全系数以及平均失效概率,得出评估结果。实验结果显示,在地震作用力下,顺层边坡坡高、坡角、岩层倾角对顺岩边坡抗震性能影响显著,评估结果与实际结果一致。 相似文献
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以汶川地震为研究背景,针对震后典型钢筋混凝土框架结构进行地震易损性研究。基于Cornell理论框架结合汶川地质资料,拟合出考虑场地特点的地震危险性模型,同时定义损伤水平状态及限值指标,以概率解析易损性研究方法为基础,运用考虑地震动参数的解析易损性评估方法绘制汶川地区钢筋混凝土框架建筑的地震易损性曲线。研究结果表明:考虑地震动参数的概率解析易损性研究方法是一种有效的地震易损性评估方法;以PGA作为地震强度输入指标的结构反应,随自振周期的增大体系最大响应的相关性降低,结构各个损伤状态的失效概率均随之增大。 相似文献
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Evaluating Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard at the Basin Scale Through Gis in the Upper Sele River Valley 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
To evaluate techniques for assessing earthquake-triggeredlandslide hazard in the Southern Apennines (Italy), a GIS-based analysis was used to modelseismically induced slope deformations. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismologicaldata were integrated into a standard earthquake slope stability model. The model assessed thelandslide potential that existed during the 1980 Irpinian earthquake in the Upper Sele river Valley.The standard Newmark displacement analysis, widely used for predicting the location of shallowunstable slopes, does not take into account errors and/or uncertainties in the input parameters.Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement analysis technique has been used. Probabilistictechniques allow, e.g., an estimation of the probability that a slope will exceed a certain criticalvalue of Newmark displacement. In our probabilistic method, a Monte-Carlo based simulation modelis used in conjunction with a GIS. The random variability of geotechnical data is modelled by probabilitydensity functions (pdfs), while for the seismic input three different regression laws wereconsidered. Input probability distributions are sampled and the resulting values input into empiricalrelations for estimating Newmark displacement. The outcome is a map in which to each siteis related a spatial probability distribution for the expected displacement in response to seismic loading.Results of the experiments show a high grade of uncertainty in the application of the Newmarkanalysis both for the deterministic and probabilistic approach in a complex geological setting suchas the high Sele valley, quite common in the Southern Apennines. They show a strong dependence onthe reliability of the spatial data used in input, so that, when the model is used at basin scale,results are strongly influenced by local environmental condition (e.g., topography, lithology, groundwatercondition) and decrease the model performance. 相似文献
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Ground-motion models (GMMs) are widely used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to estimate the probability distributions of earthquake-induced ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) at a site, given an earthquake of a certain magnitude occurring at a nearby location. Accounting for spatial and cross-IM correlations in earthquake-induced ground motions has important implications on probabilistic seismic hazard and loss estimates. This study first develops a new Italian GMM with spatial correlation for 31 amplitude-related IMs, including peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5%-damped elastic pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSAs) at 29 periods ranging from 0.01 to 4 seconds. The model estimation is performed through a recently developed one-stage nonlinear regression algorithm proposed by the authors, known as the Scoring estimation approach. In fact, current state-of-practice approaches estimate spatial correlation separately from the GMM estimation, resulting in inconsistent and statistically inefficient estimators of interevent and intraevent variances and parameters in the spatial correlation model. We test whether this affects the subsequent cross-IM correlation analysis. To this aim, based on the newly developed GMM, the empirical correlation coefficients from interevent and intraevent residuals are investigated. Finally, a set of analytical correlation models between the selected IMs are proposed. This is of special interest as several correlation models between different IMs have been calibrated and validated based on advanced GMMs and global datasets, lacking earthquakes in extensional regions; however, modeling the correlation between different IM types has not been adequately addressed by current, state-of-the-art GMMs and recent ground-motion records for Italy. 相似文献
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地震滑坡会对自然环境和人民生活带来极大破坏,在大区域范围内对边坡遭受地震影响的程度进行评价判断,主要采用具有预测性质的潜在地震诱发滑坡危险性评估的方法。因此,深入研究边坡地震危险性分析的基本理论并作出符合实际的危险性分布图对工程建设和灾害防治具有较大意义。梳理并阐述具有预测性质的边坡地震危险性分析所需数据资料及各类数据的研究进展,将利用永久位移法进行边坡地震危险性评价所需数据归纳为三种：(1)边坡在地震影响下破坏程度的判定依据;(2)区域地震动参数如峰值加速度、阿里亚斯强度;(3)边坡坡体基本参数如黏聚力、摩擦角、重度、滑块厚度、坡角等。边坡地震危险性评价的准确程度与这三类数据的研究程度与准确性有关。文章对三类数据分别详细阐述各自的研究现状与成果应用,最后分析理论存在的部分问题以及以后的研究方向。 相似文献
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A one-dimensional deterministic slope stability model (infinite slope model) was used to calculate average safety factors and failure probabilities for the city of Manizales, in central Colombia. An engineering geological data base has been created on the basis of a series of parameter maps (geology, geomorphology, Digital terrain models and slope classes), using logic reasoning in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). A two-dimensional hydrological model was applied to estimate groundwater levels in relation to rainfall events. A simple method for the calculation of horizontal seismic acceleration was used for different earthquake events. To calculate average safety factors a number of scenarios were developed, by combining the effects of groundwater and seismic acceleration with different return periods. A simple method for error propagation was used to calculate the variance of the safety factor, and the probability that it will be less than 1, for each pixel, within a time period of 20 years. The highest probability value of the various scenarios was selected for each pixel, and a final hazard map for translational landslides was constructed. The results presented here are a first approach towards a deterministic landslide hazard analysis using GIS. It has a number of drawbacks, which should be solved in future work. 相似文献
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Fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slopes using spatially correlated vector intensity measures 
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下载免费PDF全文 Earthquake‐induced slope displacement is an important parameter for safety evaluation and earthquake design of slope systems. Traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis usually focuses on evaluating slope displacement at a particular location, and it is not suitable for spatially distributed slopes over a large region. This study proposes a computationally efficient framework for fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slope systems using spatially correlated vector intensity measures (IMs). First, a spatial cross‐correlation model for three key ground motion IMs, that is, peak ground acceleration (PGA), Arias intensity, and peak ground velocity, is developed using 2686 ground motion recordings from 11 recent earthquakes. To reduce the computational cost, Monte Carlo simulation and data reduction techniques are utilized to generate spatially correlated random fields for the vector IMs. The slope displacement hazards over the region are further quantified using empirical predictive equations. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to highlight the importance of the spatial correlation and the advantage of using spatially correlated vector IMs in seismic hazard analysis of spatially distributed slopes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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基于颗粒流理论研究土质边坡动力稳定性及其滑动过程是近年来滑坡研究的一个新热点。在野外调查和室内试验的基础上,通过标定土体细观参数、模型建立、动力输入、动态监测等过程,利用PFC2D程序模拟了西吉县兴平乡堡湾村下马达子滑坡的失稳破坏运动过程,得到了该滑坡的破坏运动机理。得到如下结论:① 下马达子滑坡的失稳机制是在地震作用下斜坡前缘牵引、后缘推挤,使得坡肩受拉发生破坏,失稳后坡肩位置较大的速度和位移是地震滑坡破坏力强、致灾范围大的主要原因;② 黄土地震滑坡的滑坡后壁相对平缓,这是区别于重力滑坡的重要特征之一;③ 颗粒流模拟得到的滑坡前后相对高差和长度与实际情况较为吻合,因此,颗粒流方法可以用于地震滑坡滑距的预测。 相似文献
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Seismic stability analysis of reinforced slopes 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
In this paper, the seismic stability of slopes reinforced with geosynthetics is analysed within the framework of the pseudo-static approach. Calculations are conducted by applying the kinematic theorem of limit analysis. Different failure modes are considered, and for each analytical expressions are derived that enable one to readily calculate the reinforcement force required to prevent failure and the yield acceleration of slopes subjected to earthquake loading. Several results are presented in order to illustrate the influence of seismic forces on slope stability. Moreover, a suitable procedure based on the assessment of earthquake-induced permanent displacement is proposed for the design of reinforced slopes in seismically active areas. 相似文献
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基于FLAC3D数值模拟方法,建立不同类型的黄土场地计算模型,研究地震动强度和频率对不同类型黄土场地的动力响应特征和变形规律,分析不同类型黄土场地地震动响应的差异性,揭示不同类型黄土场地诱发的地震灾害,结合理论分析验证数值模拟结果的可靠性。研究表明:黄土-泥岩接触型二元结构斜坡极易发生滑动破坏引起斜坡失稳,并且在坡肩位置引起较为明显的动力响应,加速度放大系数是坡顶的2倍左右,是一元结构黄土斜坡相同部位加速度放大系数的1.5倍左右; 黄土斜坡临空面的存在会引起土体沿坡面发生一定范围的滑动和堆积,黄土塬内较塬边更为稳定,不易发生损伤破坏; 低频地震波对平坦场地的地震响应影响明显,随着高程的增加,频带宽度增加,傅里叶谱幅值增加,坡肩处的幅值是坡脚的2倍左右; 黄土斜坡场地易诱发大面积的滑坡灾害,黄土塬场地在剪切力和压张破坏条件下易诱发局部震陷灾害。 相似文献
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本文在考虑环境刚度效应和非匀阻效应的情况下,采用椭圆形震源简化模型,研究了走滑断层的地震烈度几何要素与震源参数之间的关系,初步建立了估计断层有效发震段长度、错动角、应力降和错动距离等参数的等震线法,并结合唐山、通海、炉霍和永善等震例进行了试算 相似文献
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Given the importance that traditional force-based seismic design still currently exhibits, studies addressing issues related
to the definition of the behaviour factor values are considered to be of most interest. A probabilistic methodology is proposed
for the calibration of the q-factor relating its value with two fundamental parameters, the displacement ductility capacity
measured at a relevant location of the structure and the failure probability P
f
. The general foundation of this procedure is based on the probabilistic quantification of the seismic action and, by applying
a transformation procedure, of the structural seismic demand in terms of displacement ductility. By recalling well established
structural reliability procedures and by making use of nonlinear analysis methods, both static and dynamic, a general probabilistic
framework, which is able to relate the ductility capacity, the failure probability P
f
and the behaviour factor, is defined. In order to illustrate some of the potentialities of the methodology, an application
example is presented, addressing the q-factor assessment for a set of regular and irregular reinforced concrete frame structures,
enforcing a given P
f
and two different ductility levels. 相似文献
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为研究高层RC框架结构罕遇地震下的易损性,设计了一个7度区典型11层RC框架结构。采用IDA方法进行时程分析,以地震动峰值地面加速度和结构第一自振周期对应的谱加速度为地震动强度指标,最大层间位移角为结构损伤指标,分别得到了单一地震动强度和双地震动强度参数下的IDA曲线和失效概率,绘制了双地震动强度参数下易损性曲面,并对单一地震动强度和双地震动强度参数下的易损性分析结果进行了对比。结果表明:罕遇地震下,采用双地震动强度参数结构失效概率明显低于采用单一地震动强度参数结构失效概率;对高层RC框架结构,采用双地震动强度参数进行易损性分析反映的地震动信息更全面;采用双地震动强度参数得到的结构失效概率公式更能真实量化不同强度地震作用下结构的失效概率。 相似文献
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Graeme H.McVerry 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2010,9(2):177-187
A landslide displacement (DLL) attenuation model has been developed using spectral intensity and a ratio of critical acceleration coefficient to ground acceleration coefficient. In the development of the model,a New Zealand earthquake record data set with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.2 within a source distance of 175 km is used. The model can be used to carry out deterministic landslide displacement analysis,and readily extended to carry out probabilistic seismic landslide displacement analysis. DLL attenuation models have also been developed by using earthquake source terms,such as magnitude and source distance,that account for the effects of earthquake faulttype,source type,and site conditions. Sensitivity analyses show that the predicted DLL values from the new models are close to those from the Romeo model that was developed from an Italian earthquake record data set. The proposed models are also applied to an analysis of landslide displacements in the Wenchuan earthquake,and a comparison between the predicted and the observed results shows that the proposed models are reliable,and can be confidently used in mapping landslide potential. 相似文献