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1.
The impacts of climate change on storm runoff and erosion in Mediterranean watersheds are difficult to assess due to the expected increase in storm frequency coupled with a decrease in total rainfall and soil moisture, added to positive or negative changes to different types of vegetation cover. This report, the second part of a two‐part article, addresses this issue by analysing the sensitivity of runoff and erosion to incremental degrees of change (from ? 20 to + 20%) to storm rainfall, pre‐storm soil moisture, and vegetation cover, in two Mediterranean watersheds, using the MEFIDIS model. The main results point to the high sensitivity of storm runoff and peak runoff rates to changes in storm rainfall (2·2% per 1% change) and, to a lesser degree, to soil water content (?1·2% per 1% change). Catchment sediment yield shows a greater sensitivity than within‐watershed erosion rates to both parameters: 7·8 versus 4·0% per 1% change for storm rainfall, and ? 4·9 versus ? 2·3% per 1% change for soil water content, indicating an increase in sensitivity with spatial scale due to changes to sediment connectivity within the catchment. Runoff and erosion showed a relatively low sensitivity to changes in vegetation cover. Finally, the shallow soils in one of the catchments led to a greater sensitivity to changes in storm rainfall and soil moisture. Overall, the results indicate that decreasing soil moisture levels caused by climate change could be sufficient to offset the impact of greater storm intensity in Mediterranean watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Zekai Şen 《水文研究》2007,21(8):1006-1014
Arid and semi‐arid regions expose special hydrological features that are distinctive from humid areas. Unfortunately, humid‐region hydrological empirical formulations are used directly in the arid and semi‐arid regions without care about the basic assumptions. During any storm rainfall in arid regions, rainfall, infiltration and runoff components of the hydrological cycle have impacts on water resources. The basis of the methodology presented in this paper is the ratio of runoff increment to rainfall increment during an infinitesimally small time duration. This is the definition of runoff coefficient for the same infinitesimal time duration. The ratio is obtained through rational, physical and mathematical combination of hydrological thinking and then integrated with the classical infiltration equation for the hydrograph determination. The parameters of the methodology are explained and their empirical estimations are presented. The methodology works for rainfall and runoff from ungauged watersheds where infiltration measurement can be performed. The comparison of the new approach with different classical approaches, such as the rational formula and Soil Conservation Service method, are presented in detail. Its application is performed for two wadis within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Understanding the mechanisms of river runoff variation is important for the effective management of water resources in arid and semi‐arid regions. This study uses long‐term observational data as a basis for examining the effects of human activities and climate change on the runoff variation of Jinghe River Basin, a typical arid inland basin in northwest China. A distributed hydrological model called the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, combined with a sequential cluster method and a separation approach, was used to quantify and distinguish the effects of human activities and climate change on runoff. The hydrological sequence before 1981 can be considered natural. However, human activities have significantly affected runoff since 1981. The runoff reduction caused by human activities between 1981 and 2008 accounted for 85.7% of the total reduction in the downstream of Jinghe River, whereas that caused by climatic variation was only 14.3%. This observation suggests that human activities are the major driver of runoff variation in the basin. Although the role of climate change in driving runoff variation has been identified to be prevalent and dominant in arid regions, this study highlights the importance of human activities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Denudation mechanisms differ fundamentally between limestone and silicate rock types, which are subject to very different rate thresholds and enhancers/inhibitors. Silicates are removed largely by erosion, the mechanical entrainment and transport of particles. This is a relatively high energy, and highly episodic, process which occurs only when a minimum threshold ?ow velocity is exceeded; it is inhibited by vegetation cover and favoured by strongly seasonal runoff. Limestone is removed largely by chemical dissolution at a rate directly proportional to runoff. Dissolution is a relatively low energy process that can occur at any ?ow velocity or in static water; in general it is enhanced by vegetation cover and non‐seasonality of runoff. These contrasting factors in the denudation of silicates versus limestone can produce strikingly uneven rates of surface lowering across a landscape, sometimes akin to the well known ‘tortoise and hare race’, where the slow and steady denudation of limestones may in the long term exceed the sometimes rapid, but often localized and episodic, erosion of silicates. Prolonged exposure of limestone to a humid temperate climate in a tectonically stable environment produces low‐relief corrosion plains in which limestone uplands are anomalous and, in most instances, due to recent unroo?ng from beneath a siliciclastic cover. In a highly seasonal or semi‐arid climate almost the exact inverse may develop, with ‘?ashy’ runoff and sparse vegetation favouring erosion rather than dissolution. Even under a constant humid climate progressive unroo?ng of a thick limestone unit within folded siliciclastics may lead to a topographic inversion over time, with the limestone outcrop always forming a topographic low ?anked by siliciclastic uplands. Valleys will be initiated on anticlinal crests, where the limestone is ?rst unroofed, but progressive lowering of the limestone causes these valleys to migrate to their ?nal position in the synclinal troughs. In humid climates isostatic compensation in response to slow, but continuous, denudation of extensive limestone outcrops may be a signi?cant factor in the development of relief on adjacent, more slowly eroding, silicate outcrops. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

Hydrological models are often used for studying the hydrological effects of climate change; however, the stability of model performance and parameter values under changing climate conditions has seldom been evaluated and compared. In this study, three widely-used rainfall–runoff models, namely the SimHYD model, the HBV model and the Xin’anjiang model, are evaluated on two catchments subject to changing climate conditions. Evaluation is carried out with respect to the stability in their performance and parameter values in different calibration periods. The results show that (a) stability of model performance and parameter values depends on model structure as well as the climate of catchments, and the models with higher performance scores are more stable in changing conditions; (b) all the tested models perform better on a humid catchment than on an arid catchment; (c) parameter values are also more stable on a humid catchment than on an arid catchment; and (d) the differences in stability among models are somewhat larger in terms of model efficiency than in model parameter values.  相似文献   

6.
The projected impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is a challenge in hydrogeological research because substantial doubts still remain, particularly in arid and semi‐arid zones. We present a methodology to generate future groundwater recharge scenarios using available information about regional climate change projections developed in European Projects. It involves an analysis of regional climate model (RCM) simulations and a proposal for ensemble models to assess the impacts of climate change. Future rainfall and temperature series are generated by modifying the mean and standard deviation of the historical series in accordance with estimates of their change provoked by climate change. Future recharge series will be obtained by simulating these new series within a continuous balance model of the aquifer. The proposed method is applied to the Serral‐Salinas aquifer, located in a semi‐arid zone of south‐east Spain. The results show important differences depending on the RCM used. Differences are also observed between the series generated by imposing only the changes in means or also in standard deviations. An increase in rainfall variability, as expected under future scenarios, could increase recharge rates for a given mean rainfall because the number of extreme events increases. For some RCMs, the simulations predict total recharge increases over the historical values, even though climate change would produce a reduction in the mean rainfall and an increased mean temperature. A method based on a multi‐objective analysis is proposed to provide ensemble predictions that give more value to the information obtained from the best calibrated models. The ensemble of predictions estimates a reduction in mean annual recharge of 14% for scenario A2 and 58% for scenario A1B. Lower values of future recharge are obtained if only the change in the mean is imposed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Using runoff and climatic observations from 37 small watersheds in Hungary a regional climate-runoff relationship has been established. This non-linear relationship is a modification of Budiko's similar equation and can be used to estimate the effect of climate changes on long-term average runoff. The degree of change in runoff depends not only on changes in precipitation and temperature, but also on the present climate characteristics. The regional relationship is verified only within a relatively narrow range of precipitation and temperature and this fact limits its use in climate impact assessment. Model calculations show that a relatively slight shift in climate, an increase in annual temperature by 0.5°C, and a decrease of annual rainfall by 0.08 mm d?1 may lead to a decrease of runoff by 25-30 per cent in small watersheds of Hungary.  相似文献   

8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):727-738
Abstract

Projected warming in equatorial Africa, accompanied by greater evaporation and more frequent heavy precipitation events, may have substantial but uncertain impacts on terrestrial hydrology. Quantitative analyses of climate change impacts on catchment hydrology require high-resolution (<50 km) climate data provided by regional climate models (RCMs). We apply validated precipitation and temperature data from the RCM PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) to a semi-distributed soil moisture balance model (SMBM) in order to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a medium-sized catchment (2098 km2) in the humid tropics of southwestern Uganda. The SMBM explicitly accounts for changes in soil moisture, and partitions effective precipitation into groundwater recharge and runoff. Under the A2 emissions scenario (2070–2100), climate projections from PRECIS feature not only rises in catchment precipitation and modelled potential evapotranspiration by 14% and 53%, respectively, but also increases in rainfall intensity. We show that the common application of the historical rainfall distribution using delta factors to the SMBM grossly underestimates groundwater recharge (i.e. 55% decrease relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990). By transforming the rainfall distribution to account for changes in rainfall intensity, we project increases in recharge and runoff of 53% and 137%, respectively, relative to the baseline period.  相似文献   

9.
Over the last thirty years, French hydrologists have observed flow characteristics at the outlets of small tropical watersheds, characteristics which vary between arid zones, humid zones and equatorial rainforest zones. The main physical phenomena related to the various types of runoff generation have been observed and analysed. The generation of runoff and subsurface runoff following tropical rainstorms depends on soil surface formations, texture and structure as well as vegetation cover, geological substrata, weathered material and climate.

Analysis is also made of experimental rainfall-runoff relationships, the shape of flood hydrographs and the conditions necessary for the occurrence of steady base flow. Scale effects between experimental plot and watershed have been studied to identify any effect this may have upon runoff generation and flow. Tables detail watershed characteristics and relationships between these and rainfall and runoff.  相似文献   


10.
Decoupling the impacts of climate and tectonics on hillslope erosion rates is a challenging problem. Hillslope erosion rates are well known to respond to changes in hillslope boundary conditions (e.g. channel incision rates) through their dependence on soil thickness, and precipitation is an important control on soil formation. Surprisingly though, compilations of hillslope denudation rates suggest little precipitation sensitivity. To isolate the effects of precipitation and boundary condition, we measured rates of soil production from bedrock and described soils on hillslopes along a semi‐arid to hyperarid precipitation gradient in northern Chile. In each climate zone, hillslopes with contrasting boundary conditions (actively incising channels versus non‐eroding landforms) were studied. Channel incision rates, which ultimately drive hillslope erosion, varied with precipitation rather than tectonic setting throughout the study area. These precipitation‐dependent incision rates are mirrored on the hillslopes, where erosion shifts from relatively fast and biologically‐driven to extremely slow and salt‐driven as precipitation decreases. Contrary to studies in humid regions, bedrock erosion rates increase with precipitation following a power law, from ～1 m Ma?1 in the hyperarid region to ～40 m Ma?1 in the semi‐arid region. The effect of boundary condition on soil thickness was observed in all climate zones (thicker soils on hillslopes with stable boundaries compared to hillslopes bounded by active channels), but the difference in bedrock erosion rates between the hillslopes within a climate region (slower erosion rates on hillslopes with stable boundaries) decreased as precipitation decreased. The biotic‐abiotic threshold also marks the precipitation rate below which bedrock erosion rates are no longer a function of soil thickness. Our work shows that hillslope processes become sensitive to precipitation as life disappears and the ability of the landscape to respond to tectonics decreases. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Soil erosion is one of the most severe land degradation processes in the Mediterranean region. Although badlands occupy a relatively small fraction of the Mediterranean area, their erosion rates are very high. Many studies have investigated to what extent vegetation controls soil erosion rates. This study, however, deals with the impact of erosion on vegetation establishment. In semi‐arid badlands of the Mediterranean, soil water availability constitutes the main limiting factor for vegetation development. As a consequence, south‐facing slopes are typically less vegetated due to a very large water stress. However, these findings do not necessarily apply to humid badlands. The main objective of this paper is to determine the topographic thresholds for plant colonization in relation to slope aspect and to assess the spatial patterns of vegetation cover and species richness. We surveyed 179 plots on highly eroded badland slopes in the Central Pyrenees. We defined four aspect classes subdivided into slope angle classes. Colonization success was expressed in terms of vegetation cover and species richness. Slope angle thresholds for plant colonization were identified for each slope aspect class by means of binary logistic regressions. The results show that a critical slope angle exists below which plants colonize the badland slopes. Below this critical slope angle, plant cover and species richness increase with a decreasing slope angle. The largest critical slope angles in humid badlands are observed on south‐facing slopes, which contrasts with the results obtained in semi‐arid badlands. North‐facing slopes however are characterized by a reduced overall vegetation cover and species richness, and lower topographic threshold values. The possible underlying processes responsible for this slope‐aspect discrepancy in vegetation characteristics are discussed in terms of environmental variables that control regolith development, weathering and erosion processes. Moreover, possible restoration strategies through the use of vegetation in highly degraded environments are highlighted. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
During the last 150 years, land degradation across the semi‐arid grasslands of the south‐western United States has been associated with an increase in runoff and erosion. Concurrent with this increase in runoff and erosion is a loss of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), which are plant‐essential nutrients. This study investigates the runoff‐driven redistribution and loss of dissolved and particulate‐bound N and P that occurs during natural runoff events over a trajectory of degradation, from grassland to degraded shrubland, in central New Mexico. Runoff‐driven nutrient dynamics were monitored at four stages over a transition from grassland to shrubland, for naturally occurring rainfall events over 10 × 30 m bounded runoff plots. Results show that particulate‐bound forms of N and P are responsible for most of N and P lost from the plots due to erosion occurring during runoff events. Results suggest that for high‐magnitude rainfall events, the output of N and P from the plots may greatly exceed the amount input into the plots, particularly over shrub‐dominated plots where erosion rates are higher. As these results only become apparent when monitoring these processes over larger hillslope plots, it is important to recognize that processes of nutrient cycling related to the islands of fertility hypothesis may have previously been overstated when observed only at smaller spatial scales. Thus, the progressive degradation of semi‐arid grassland ecosystems across the south‐western United States and other semi‐arid ecosystems worldwide has the potential to affect N and P cycling significantly through an increase in nutrient redistribution and loss in runoff. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Stormwater runoff is a leading cause of non‐point source pollution in urbanizing areas, and runoff effects will be exacerbated by climate's changing patterns of precipitation. To enhance understanding of impacts of development and climate change on stormwater runoff in small watersheds (< 6500 ha), we developed the Stormwater Runoff Modeling System (SWARM), a simple modeling system based on U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number and unit hydrograph methods. The objective of this paper is to describe the applications possible with SWARM and to demonstrate its usefulness in exploring the impacts of development and climate change on runoff. Results encompass a range of impact scenarios. One development scenario shows that the amount of rainfall converted to runoff is 27% for an undeveloped area and 67% for a highly developed area. A climate scenario shows that the amount of rainfall converted to runoff in a medium developed area is 25% in drought conditions and 76% in wet conditions. User‐friendly templates make SWARM a good tool for scientific research, for resource management and decision making, and for community science education. The modeling system also supports the investigation of social and economic impacts to communities as they adapt to increased development and climate change. Although we calibrated SWARM specifically to the southeast coastal plain, it can be applied to other regions by recalibrating parameters and modifying calculation templates. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   

14.
Process dynamics in fluvial‐based dryland environments are highly complex with fluvial, aeolian, and alluvial processes all contributing to landscape change. When anthropogenic activities such as dam‐building affect fluvial processes, the complexity in local response can be further increased by flood‐ and sediment‐limiting flows. Understanding these complexities is key to predicting landscape behavior in drylands and has important scientific and management implications, including for studies related to paleoclimatology, landscape ecology evolution, and archaeological site context and preservation. Here we use multi‐temporal LiDAR surveys, local weather data, and geomorphological observations to identify trends in site change throughout the 446‐km‐long semi‐arid Colorado River corridor in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA, where archaeological site degradation related to the effects of upstream dam operation is a concern. Using several site case studies, we show the range of landscape responses that might be expected from concomitant occurrence of dam‐controlled fluvial sand bar deposition, aeolian sand transport, and rainfall‐induced erosion. Empirical rainfall‐erosion threshold analyses coupled with a numerical rainfall–runoff–soil erosion model indicate that infiltration‐excess overland flow and gullying govern large‐scale (centimeter‐ to decimeter‐scale) landscape changes, but that aeolian deposition can in some cases mitigate gully erosion. Whereas threshold analyses identify the normalized rainfall intensity (defined as the ratio of rainfall intensity to hydraulic conductivity) as the primary factor governing hydrologic‐driven erosion, assessment of false positives and false negatives in the dataset highlight topographic slope as the next most important parameter governing site response. Analysis of 4+ years of high resolution (four‐minute) weather data and 75+ years of low resolution (daily) climate records indicates that dryland erosion is dependent on short‐term, storm‐driven rainfall intensity rather than cumulative rainfall, and that erosion can occur outside of wet seasons and even wet years. These results can apply to other similar semi‐arid landscapes where process complexity may not be fully understood. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA  相似文献   

15.
In semi‐arid areas, high‐intensity rainfall events are often held responsible for the main part of soil erosion. Long‐term landscape evolution models usually use average annual rainfall as input, making the evaluation of single events impossible. Event‐based soil erosion models are better suited for this purpose but cannot be used to simulate longer timescales and are usually applied to plots or small catchments. In this study, the openLISEM event‐based erosion model was applied to the medium‐sized (～50 km2) Prado catchment in SE Spain. Our aim was to (i) test the model's performance for medium‐sized catchments, (ii) test the ability to simulate four selected typical Mediterranean rainfall events of different magnitude and (iii) explore the relative contribution of these different storms to soil erosion using scenarios of future climate variability. Results show that because of large differences in the hydrologic response between storms of different magnitudes, each event needed to be calibrated separately. The relation between rainfall event characteristics and the calibration factors might help in determining optimal calibration values if event characteristics are known. Calibration of the model features some drawbacks for large catchments due to spatial variability in Ksat values. Scenario calculations show that although ～50% of soil erosion occurs as a result of high frequency, low‐intensity rainfall events, large‐magnitude, low‐frequency events potentially contribute significantly to total soil erosion. The results illustrate the need to incorporate temporal variability in rainfall magnitude–frequency distributions in landscape evolution models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
The quality of water and sediments of street runoff in Amman,Jordan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Metallic content (Cr, Fe, Mn, Cu, Ni, Pb and Cd) of street sediments and street runoff in addition to major inorganic constituents (Ca, Mg, Na, K, HCO3, Cl, NO3 and SO4) of street runoff were determined under semi‐arid conditions. Two sites in the vicinity of Amman during the pluvial year 1998–1999 were chosen for this investigation. A higher quantity of ionic contents was found at site 2 in comparison to site 1 except for iron, which was significantly higher at site 1. This finding was attributed to higher anthropogenic activity and lower rainfall at site 2, which indicates better water quality of street runoff from residential sites than the city centre. The average concentrations of Pb, Cu and Cd in Amman street runoff compared with the highest levels recorded at humid sites of the world as a result the prevailing semi‐arid conditions in the areas investigated. The highest concentrations of all constituents were detected during the first month of sampling, which might be the result of low rainfall, and a long dry period of atmospheric deposition preceding rainfall events. However, high levels of both lead and copper were recorded (below that of iron) which might be attributed to traffic pollution. In contrast, a significant variation between the average concentrations for Cu, Ni and Cr was found in sediments from the two sites. Moreover, a significant difference was detected only for Cu and Mn at each site overtime. The overall pattern of the results suggests that all heavy metal concentrations for street runoff showed a significant variation over time at site 1 whereas only a significant variation was found for Ni at site 2, which can be explained as the result of higher rainfall at site 1 than at site 2. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Climate change is expected to effect storm runoff and erosion processes in Mediterranean watersheds at multiple spatial scales. Models are typically applied to estimate these impacts; however, the scarcity of spatially distributed data for parameterization, calibration and validation often prevents application of these models, particularly for larger catchments. This report, the first part of a two‐part article, presents an application and evaluation of the MEFIDIS model for two Mediterranean meso‐scale watersheds (115 and 290 km2) in a data‐scarce environment. A multi‐scale assessment method was used that combines quantitative validation and qualitative evaluation, consisting of three steps: (1) calibration at the small (field) scale using results from rainfall simulation experiments; (2) calibration and validation for catchment‐scale results while changing catchment‐scale parameters only (channel roughness and a parameter controlling the distribution of saturated areas); and (3) qualitative evaluation of within‐watershed erosion processes using empirical estimates of sediment delivery ratio and gully location. The results indicate that calibrating MEFIDIS at the field scale can provide reasonable results for catchment runoff and sediment export and for within‐watershed erosion processes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
J. Vaze  J. Teng 《水文研究》2011,25(1):18-35
This paper describes the rainfall–runoff modelling for New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) under historical climate and the likely changes to runoff around the year 2030 for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES A1B global warming scenario. Results show that the mean annual historical rainfall and runoff, averaged over the entire region, are 516 and 55 mm, respectively. There is considerable uncertainty in the global climate modelling (GCM) of rainfall response in the region to global warming. The majority of GCMs show a decrease in the mean annual rainfall and the median estimate indicates that future mean annual runoff in the region in ～2030 relative to ～1990 will be lower by 0–20% in the southern parts, no change to a slight reduction in the eastern parts and higher by 0–20% in the northwest corner. Averaged across the entire region, the median estimate is a 5% decrease in the mean annual runoff and the extreme estimates range from a 14% decrease to a 10% increase in mean annual runoff. This is the first comprehensive study on the hydrological impacts of climate change done in NSW that covers the entire state. Outputs from this study are being used to underpin the hydrology for a number of major climate change impact studies that are presently underway across NSW. The results and output datasets from this study will be available through a web interface and they can be used by all state government agencies and industries in NSW to plan for and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Most natural disasters are caused by water‐/climate‐related hazards, such as floods, droughts, typhoons, and landslides. In the last few years, great attention has been paid to climate change, and especially the impact of climate change on water resources and the natural disasters that have been an important issue in many countries. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, the number of water‐related disasters is expected to rise. In this regard, this study intends to analyse the changes in extreme weather events and the associated flow regime in both the past and the future. Given trend analysis, spatially coherent and statistically significant changes in the extreme events of temperature and rainfall were identified. A weather generator based on the non‐stationary Markov chain model was applied to produce a daily climate change scenario for the Han River basin for a period of 2001–2090. The weather generator mainly utilizes the climate change SRES A2 scenario driven by input from the regional climate model. Following this, the SLURP model, which is a semi‐distributed hydrological model, was applied to produce a long‐term daily runoff ensemble series. Finally, the indicator of hydrologic alteration was applied to carry out a quantitative analysis and assessment of the impact of climate change on runoff, the river flow regime, and the aquatic ecosystem. It was found that the runoff is expected to decrease in May and July, while no significant changes occur in June. In comparison with historical evidence, the runoff is expected to increase from August to April. A remarkable increase, which is about 40%, in runoff was identified in September. The amount of the minimum discharge over various durations tended to increase when compared to the present hydrological condition. A detailed comparison for discharge and its associated characteristics was discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
ABSTRACT

The spatial-temporal variation of runoff in an inland basin is very sensitive to climate change. Investigation of runoff change in arid areas is typically limited by lack of meteorological and hydrogeological data. This study focused on runoff change in the Yarkand River source area of the Tarim Basin, China, with the aim of analysing the influence of climate change on the response characteristics of discharge. Sensitivity analysis was introduced to reflect the degree of influence of climate on runoff. Based on the sensitivity factors, over 30 sets of schemes including the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report were simulated using the MIKE 11/NAM rainfall–runoff model and the response of runoff was analysed. The results indicate that there are significant correlations and synchronous fluctuations between runoff and precipitation, evaporation and temperature. The characteristics of the sensitivity of runoff can be fitted well by Bi-Gaussian functions. The functions show that high sensitivity indexes mainly appear in the interval of 165 ± 100 m3 s-1. The influence of precipitation on runoff is greater than that of other climate factors. Through simulation using the NAM model, we found that change of annual runoff was related to the initial climate condition. Annual runoff will have an increasing trend if it has a strong sensitivity to the initial meteorological condition. Moreover, the runoff decreases linearly with evaporation. Also it has a positive relationship with temperature and precipitation. Across the four seasons, the impact in summer and winter is greater than that in spring and autumn. Estimation of the spatial-temporal influence of climate on runoff could provide insight for water resource development in arid areas.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor not assigned  相似文献   

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