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1.
This paper presents the results of an analysis of the daily rainfall of 329 rain gauge stations data over Maharashtra, a state in India, during the summer monsoon season, June to September, for the 11?year period from 1998 to 2008. Mesoscale analysis of the daily rainfall data is performed by converting the station rainfall data into gridded format with 15?km resolution. Various statistics have been carried out over 35 districts of four meteorological subdivisions of the Maharashtra state to understand the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall. Variation of monthly mean rainfall for the four monsoon months and a season as whole is analyzed for different rainfall statistics such as mean rainfall, rainfall variability, rainy days, maximum daily rainfall and classification of rainy days. Seasonal rainfall is maximum over the Konkan region followed by the eastern Vidharbha region whereas Madhya Maharashtra as a rain shadow region receives less rainfall. The rainfall is highly variable over all of Maharashtra with the coefficient of variability of the daily rainfall varying between 100 and 300%. Seasonal distribution of the number of rainy days shows 90–100 over southern Konkan, 80–90 over northern Konkan, 50–60 over eastern Vidharbha, and the southeast Madhya Maharashtra has the lowest number of about 15–20 rainy days. The highest values of maximum daily rainfall are located over the Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Raigadh, Mumbai and Thane districts of the Konkan region followed by that over eastern Vidharbha. The rainfall data have been divided into three categories (moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall and extreme heavy rainfall) based upon seven categories used by the India Meteorological Department. Heavy rainfall zones lie over the southern Konkan region, whereas extreme heavy rainfalls occur over northern latitudes. The data used in this study is having high resolution and district wise analysis over Maharashtra state is extremely beneficial.  相似文献   

2.
An investigation was carried out to identify trends in the rainfall and temperature regimes of the Ganga basin in India and in India as a whole. Long-term data on the monsoon and annual rainfall and the average annual temperature for India as a whole, and on the monsoon rainfall, number of rainy days and annual maximum temperature of the Ganga basin were analysed. The trends in these data were detected using non-parametric methods. The results of this study showed that the rainfall variables had a decreasing trend and the temperature had an increasing trend. These trends were observed to have begun around the second half of the 1960s, and have implications for the Indian economy. As the Indian economy continues to be based on agriculture, water resource management for irrigation plays a vital part in its growth. Present methods of design and management for water resource systems assume the climatic regime to be stationary. If indeed the climatic regime has changed, it will be necessary to develop new management approaches which consider this change.  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT

Understanding potential evapotranspiration (PET) changes under climate change is of great importance for hydrological research. The trends of PET changes and their driving forces were investigated in the Lancang (LRB) and Yarlung Zangbo (YRB) river basins, southwest China, using diagnosis graphs and the Mann-Kendall test. Analysis of variance was applied to examine the contribution of different climatic variables to PET. The results show that: (i) there was a statistically significant increase in PET in the period of 1957–2015 in the LRB, while it showed a markedly decreasing trend in the YRB; (ii) PET in both basins is fairly sensitive to wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation and maximum air temperature, and the interactions between wind speed and relative humidity are also important; and (iii) the increase in PET in the LRB is due mainly to the increase in maximum air temperature and decrease in relative humidity, while declines in wind speed and solar radiation are the main reasons for the decrease in PET in the YRB.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

Estimates of trends of climatic changes at basin and state scales are required for developing adaptation strategies related to planning, development and management of water resources. In the present study, seasonal and annual trends of changes in maximum temperature (T max), minimum temperature (T min), mean temperature (T mean), temperature range (T range), highest maximum temperature (H max) and lowest minimum temperature (L min) have been examined at the basin scale. The longest available records over the last century, for 43 stations covering nine river basins in northwest and central India, were used in the analysis. Of the nine river basins studied, seven showed a warming trend, whereas two showed a cooling trend. The Narmada and Sabarmati river basins experienced the maximum warming and cooling, respectively. The majority of basins in the study area show increasing trend in T range, H max and L min. Seasonal analysis of different variables shows that the greatest changes in T max and T mean were observed in the post-monsoon season, while T min experienced the greatest change in the monsoon season. This analysis provides scenarios of temperature changes which may be used for sensitivity analysis of water availability for different basins, and accordingly in planning and implementation of adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT

This study assesses the climate change impact on rainfall and drought incidents across Nigeria. Linear regression, Mann-Kendall tests and lag-1 serial correlation were adopted to analyse the trends and variability of rainfall and drought at 18 synoptic stations. Analysis of annual precipitation series indicates an increase in rainfall amounts at all stations, except Minna, Gusau and Yola. Seventeen of the 18 stations recorded at least one main drought period, between 1983 and 1987. A decreasing trend for the standardized precipitation index SPI-12 series was seen at Yola station, while the other stations showed an increasing trend. Also, Nigeria witnessed more annual rainfall totals but with high variability within the rainy months of the year in the first 15 years of the 21st century compared to the 20th century. Such variability in rainfall may have a significant effect on groundwater resources and the hydrology of Nigeria.  相似文献   

6.
In this study, change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge are analysed over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. Trends and rainfall indices are evaluated using non‐parametric tests at different temporal levels. To overcome the sparse locally available network, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges. Finally, existing linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2°C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31 to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Five General Circulation Model(GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21 st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project(ISIMIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evapotranspiration(ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation(P) per unit warming across the country, especially for South China, which led to a notable decrease of surface water variability(P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/ year and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02% to -0.13%/year were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 0.41%/year and 0.90%/year, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks(e.g., floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with a steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21 st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide a multi-scale guidance for assessing effective adaptation strategies for China on a river basin, regional, or as a whole.  相似文献   

8.
Tropical river basins are experiencing major hydrological alterations as a result of climate variability and deforestation. These drivers of flow changes are often difficult to isolate in large basins based on either observations or experiments; however, combining these methods with numerical models can help identify the contribution of climate and deforestation to hydrological alterations. This paper presents a study carried out in the Tapaj?s River (Brazil), a 477,000 km2 basin in South‐eastern Amazonia, in which we analysed the role of annual land cover change on daily river flows. Analysis of observed spatial and temporal trends in rainfall, forest cover, and river flow metrics for 1976 to 2008 indicates a significant shortening of the wet season and reduction in river flows through most of the basin despite no significant trend in annual precipitation. Coincident with seasonal trends over the past 4 decades, over 35% of the original forest (140,000 out of 400,000 km2) was cleared. In order to determine the effects of land clearing and rainfall variability to trends in river flows, we conducted hindcast simulations with ED2 + R, a terrestrial biosphere model incorporating fine scale ecosystem heterogeneity arising from annual land‐use change and linked to a flow routing scheme. The simulations indicated basin‐wide increases in dry season flows caused by land cover transitions beginning in the early 1990s when forest cover dropped to 80% of its original extent. Simulations of historical potential vegetation in the absence of land cover transitions indicate that reduction in rainfall during the dry season (mean of ?9 mm per month) would have had an opposite and larger magnitude effect than deforestation (maximum of +4 mm/month), leading to the overall net negative trend in river flows. In light of the expected increase in future climate variability and water infrastructure development in the Amazon and other tropical basins, this study presents an approach for analysing how multiple drivers of change are altering regional hydrology and water resources management.  相似文献   

9.
ABSTRACT

This paper attempts to design statistical models to forecast annual precipitation in the Neuquen and Limay river basins in the Comahue region of Argentina. These forecasts are especially useful as they are used to better organize the operation of hydro-electric dams, the agriculture in irrigated valleys and the safety of the population. In this work, multiple linear regression statistical models are built to forecast mean annual rainfall over the two river basins. Since the maximum precipitation occurs in the winter (June–August), forecasting models have been developed for the beginning of March and for the beginning of June, just before the rainy season starts. The results show that the sea-surface temperatures of the Indian and Pacific oceans are good predictors for March models and explain 42.8% of the precipitation index variance. The efficiency of the models increases in June, adding more predictors related to the autumn circulation.  相似文献   

10.
The warming of the Earth's atmosphere system is likely to change temperature and precipitation, which may affect the climate, hydrology and water resources at the river basins over the world. The importance of temperature change becomes even greater in snow or glacier dominated basins where it controls the snowmelt processes during the late‐winter, spring and summer months. In this study hydrologic responses of streamflow in the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins to climate change are analysed with a watershed hydrology model, based on the downscaled atmospheric data as input, in order to assess the regional climate change impact for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan. As a result of this analysis, it was found that the annual mean river discharge is increasing in the future at snow and glacier dominated areas due to the air temperature increase and the consequent increase in snow/ice melt rates until about 2060. Then the annual mean flow discharge starts to decrease from about 2080 onward because the small glaciers start to disappear in the glacier areas. It was also found that there is a gradual change in the hydrologic flow regime throughout a year, with the high flows occuring earlier in the hydrologic year, due to the warmer climate in the future. Furthermore, significant increases in annual maximum daily flows, including the 100‐year return period flows, at the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins toward the end of the 21st century can be inferred from flood frequency analysis results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Changes of rainfall and its possible reasons in the Nansi Lake Basin,China   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
This study investigates the changes of rainfall patterns along with the underlying reasons in the Nansi Lake Basin (NLB), China during 1960–2009. Results show that the annual rainfall increases from the northwest to the southeast of the NLB. From the temporal variation perspective, annual rainfall decreases slightly in the majority of stations. Furthermore, in spite of no pronounced trends are detected in all stations, the annual rainfall series fluctuate intensely, and present step changes around the year of 1974 and 2002. This change pattern of rainfall is verified by the approximately wet–dry–wet phase pattern, which is exhibited in the standardized departures of annual rainfall series, during the three sub-periods divided by the pre-obtained two change years. In particular, the parametric t test demonstrate that the step change in 2002 is significant. The variations in the rainy season (RS, June–September) rainfall contributed mostly to the changes in the annual rainfall, and a high similarity of change patterns between the RS and annual rainfall is also observed. The long term mean RS and annual rainfall decreases largely from the sub-period of 1960–1974 to 1974–2002, and increased largely from the sub-period of 1974–2002 to 2002–2009 in the NLB. Besides, various elements, such as the summer East Asian summer monsoon and summer Pacific decadal oscillation, may together lead to the step changes in summer rainfall over our study area.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract

The study of precipitation trends is critically important for a country like India whose food security and economy are dependent on the timely availability of water. In this work, monthly, seasonal and annual trends of rainfall have been studied using monthly data series of 135 years (1871–2005) for 30 sub-divisions (sub-regions) in India. Half of the sub-divisions showed an increasing trend in annual rainfall, but for only three (Haryana, Punjab and Coastal Karnataka), this trend was statistically significant. Similarly, only one sub-division (Chattisgarh) indicated a significant decreasing trend out of the 15 sub-divisions showing decreasing trend in annual rainfall. In India, the monsoon months of June to September account for more than 80% of the annual rainfall. During June and July, the number of sub-divisions showing increasing rainfall is almost equal to those showing decreasing rainfall. In August, the number of sub-divisions showing an increasing trend exceeds those showing a decreasing trend, whereas in September, the situation is the opposite. The majority of sub-divisions showed very little change in rainfall in non-monsoon months. The five main regions of India showed no significant trend in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in most of the months. For the whole of India, no significant trend was detected for annual, seasonal, or monthly rainfall. Annual and monsoon rainfall decreased, while pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rainfall increased at the national scale. Rainfall in June, July and September decreased, whereas in August it increased, at the national scale.

Citation Kumar, V., Jain, S. K. & Singh, Y. (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 484–496.  相似文献   

13.
Mean daily streamflow records from 44 river basins in Romania with an undisturbed runoff regime have been analyzed for trends with the nonparametric Mann‐Kendall test for two periods of study: 1961–2009 (25 stations) and 1975–2009 (44 stations). The statistical significance of trends was tested for each station on an annual and seasonal basis, for different streamflow quantiles. In order to account for the presence of serial correlation that might lead to an erroneous rejection of the null hypothesis, a trend‐free prewhitening was applied to the original data series. The regional field significance of trends is tested by a bootstrap procedure. Changes in the streamflow regime in Romania are demonstrated. The main identified trends are an increase in winter and autumn streamflow since 1961 and a decrease in summer flow since 1975. The streamflow trends are well explained by recent changes in temperature and precipitation that occurred in the last 50 years. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Uruguay has stimulated the development of its forest sector since the promulgation of Forest Law N° 15 939 in December of 1987. Nevertheless, the substitution of natural grasslands with forest plantations for industrial use has raised concerns regarding hydrological processes of groundwater recharge and water consumption involving evapotranspiration. The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of this substitution approach on water resources. Input data were collected from two small experimental watersheds of roughly 100–200 hectares located in western Uruguay. The watersheds are characterized by Eucalyptus Globulus ssp. Maidenni and natural grasslands for cattle use. Total rainfall, stream discharge, rainfall redistribution, soil water content and groundwater level data were collected. Groundwater recharge was estimated from water table fluctuations and from groundwater contributions to base flows. Seasonal and annual water budgets were computed from October of 2006 to September of 2014 to evaluate changes in the hydrological processes. The data show a decrease in annual specific discharge of roughly 17% for mean hydrological years and no conclusive effects on annual groundwater recharge in the forested watershed relative to the reference pasture watershed. Reduced annual specific discharge is equivalent to the mean annual interception. The computed actual annual evapotranspiration is consistent with international catchment measurements. Reduction rates vary seasonally and according to accumulated rainfall and its temporary distribution. The degree of specific discharge decline is particularly high for drier autumns and winters (32 to 28%) when the corresponding rainfall varies from 275 to 400 mm. These results are of relevance for water resources management efforts, as water uses downstream can be affected. These findings, based on a study period dominated by anomalous wet springs and summers and by dry autumns and winters, oppose earlier results based on 34 years of rainfall and discharge data drawn from Uruguayan large basins. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
长江流域近50年降水变化及其对干流洪水的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
根据我国长江流域气象观测站近42年的资料,分析了整个流域年和季节平均面雨量、暴雨日数和暴雨量的变化特征,以及降水对流域径流和洪水的影响.长江流域年和夏季平均面雨量存在明显的年际和年代变化特征,也表现出比较显著的趋势变化特点.大部分测站年平均面雨量呈增加趋势,夏季和冬季平均面雨量的增加趋势尤其明显;秋季平均面雨量呈显著下降趋势.同时,年和夏季暴雨日数和暴雨量也在较大范围内呈显著增加趋势.长江流域的降水对干流平均流量具有重要影响.1973年、1983年和1998年的洪水主要是由明显高于平均的流域面雨量引起的;长江下游平均流量变化趋势也同流域年平均面雨量、夏季平均面雨量变化趋势基本一致,特别是70年代末以来,下游平均流量和流域面雨量的上升趋势更加明显,并同时在1998年达到最高值.长江流域大的丰水年一般对应El Nino年或El Nino次年,表明E1 Nino对长江较大洪水可能具有一定影响.  相似文献   

16.
Assessment of hydrological extremes in the Kamo River Basin,Japan   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
A suite of extreme indices derived from daily precipitation and streamflow was analysed to assess changes in the hydrological extremes from 1951 to 2012 in the Kamo River Basin. The evaluated indices included annual maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation (RX1day, RX5day), consecutive dry days (CDD), annual maximum 1-day and 5-day streamflow (SX1day, SX5day), and consecutive low-flow days (CDS). Sen’s slope estimator and two versions of the Mann-Kendall test were used to detect trends in the indices. Also, frequency distributions of the indices were analysed separately for two periods: 1951–1981 and 1982–2012. The results indicate that quantiles of the rainfall indices corresponding to the 100-year return period have decreased in recent years, and the streamflow indices had similar patterns. Although consecutive no rainfall days represented by 100-year CDD decreased, continuous low-flow days represented by 100-year CDS increased. This pattern change is likely associated with the increase in temperature during this period.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Gargouri  相似文献   

17.
The streamflow on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an important role in the water supply of Asia's main river basins. To enhance understanding of hydrologic cycle under the pronounced warming over the TP, this study comprehensively investigates the streamflow changes at the upstream of six major rivers (Yellow River, Yalong River, Jinsha River, Lancang River, Nu River, and Yarlung Zangbo River) originating from the TP, and then diagnoses their possible causes by analysing the impacts of climate variability and human activities. Results indicate that these six major rivers studied have generally insignificant increasing trends in annual streamflow during the last half century, except for two stations. The significant increase appears at the Tuotuohe station in the headwater area of Jinsha River, while the dramatic decrease occurs at the Yunjinghong station in the downstream of Lancang River. In terms of climate factors, the six river basins show a distinct warming trend, along with a noticeable increase in precipitation over the central and northern regions. Pan evaporation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and relative humidity have been found to gradually decrease in most areas. As for the Tuotuohe station, both warming-induced meltwater and increasing precipitation might jointly contribute to the increasing streamflow. But for the Yunjinghong station, the results simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model indicate that human activities, especially for the impoundment processes of Xiaowan and Nuozhadu dams, significantly influenced the streamflow, contributing to approximately 69% of the streamflow reduction during 2009–2013. In the context of accelerated global warming, greater attention should be paid to hydrometeorological changes on the TP to offer further insights for the water resources management of the ‘Asian Water Tower’.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract

Abstract The impact of climate change is projected to have different effects within and between countries. Information about such change is required at global, regional and basin scales for a variety of purposes. An investigation was carried out to identify trends in temperature time series of 125 stations distributed over the whole of India. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect monotonic trends in annual average and seasonal temperatures. Three variables related to temperature, viz. mean, mean maximum and mean minimum, were considered for analysis on both an annual and a seasonal basis. Each year was divided into four principal seasons, viz. winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. Temperature anomalies are plotted, and it is observed that annual mean temperature, mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature have increased at the rate of 0.42, 0.92 and 0.09°C (100 year)-1, respectively. On a regional basis, stations of southern and western India show a rising trend of 1.06 and 0.36°C (100 year)-1, respectively, while stations of the north Indian plains show a falling trend of –0.38°C (100 year)-1. The seasonal mean temperature has increased by 0.94°C (100 year)-1 for the post-monsoon season and by 1.1°C (100 year)-1 for the winter season.  相似文献   

19.
The aim of this study was to investigate rainfall–groundwater dynamics over space and annual time scales in a hard‐rock aquifer system of India by employing time series, geographic information system and geostatistical modelling techniques. Trends in 43‐year (1965–2007) annual rainfall time series of ten rainfall stations and 16‐year (1991–2006) pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels of 140 sites were identified by using Mann–Kendall, Spearman rank order correlation and Kendall rank correlation tests. Trends were quantified by Kendall slope method. Furthermore, the study involves novelty of examining homogeneity of pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels, for the first time, by applying seven tests. Regression analysis between rainfall and post‐monsoon groundwater levels was performed. The pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon groundwater levels for four periods – 1991–1994, 1995–1998, 1999–2002 and 2003–2006 – were subjected to geographic information system‐based geostatistical modelling. The rainfall showed considerable spatiotemporal variations, with a declining trend at the Mavli rainfall station (p‐value < 0.05). The Levene's tests revealed spatial homogeneity of rainfall at α = 0.05. Regression analyses indicated significant relationships (r2 > 0.5) between groundwater level and rainfall for eight rainfall stations. Non‐homogeneity and declining trends in the groundwater level, attributed to anthropogenic and hydrologic factors, were found at 5–61 more sites in pre‐monsoon compared with post‐monsoon season. The groundwater declining rates in phyllite–schist, gneiss, schist and granite formations were found to be 0.18, 0.26, 0.21 and 0.14 m year?1 and 0.13, 0.19, 0.16 and 0.02 m year?1 during the pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons, respectively. The geostatistical analyses for four time periods revealed linkages between the rainfall and groundwater levels. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
1840年以来长江大洪水演变与气候变化关系初探   总被引：25，自引：3，他引：22  
长江洪水灾害是我国频率高、为患严重的自然灾害之一.本文依据可靠资料,选择1840年至2000年间32次大洪水记录,探讨其演变与气候变化的关系.认知1910s前的19世纪冷期出现大洪水13次(包括1870年的极值大洪水事件)频率为1.9次／10a.1921-2000年间出现了大洪水19次,频率为2.4次／10a.20世纪暖期又分出两个变暖时段,前一变暖时段的峰值期1920s-1940s出现大洪水9次,包含1931年全流域大洪水.后一变暖时段,即1980s与1990s出现大洪水8次.实测记录到的最大洪水1954年位于前一变暖时段结束阶段.1990s是全球,也是我国近百年中最暖年代,受东南季风影响大的中下游地区夏季降水量是近百年最多的,大暴雨频率也是有较多记录的40年来最高的.以此出现了10年5次大洪水高频率现象,包含1998年全流域型大洪水,表明了全球变暖的显著影响.也指示30-40年问周期性振荡中多雨年代.如此可预期21世纪初期降水会有小幅度下降与大洪水频率在短期内降低的可能性.长江上游受西南季风影响较大,19世纪下半期与20世纪上半期为多降水期,大洪水频率较高.20世纪下半期为少降水期,大洪水频率较低.关于气候变化研究有待深入,前景不易预估.  相似文献   

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