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1.
Frequency analysis of climate extreme events in Zanjan, Iran   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
In this study, generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) were fitted to the maximum and minimum temperature, maximum wind speed, and maximum precipitation series of Zanjan. Maximum (minimum) daily and absolute annual observations of Zanjan station from 1961 to 2011 were used. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Quantiles corresponding to 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return periods were calculated. It was found that both candidate distributions fitted to extreme events series, were statistically reasonable. Most of the observations from 1961 to 2011 were found to fall within 1–10 years return period. Low extremal index (θ) values were found for excess maximum and minimum temperatures over a high threshold, indicating the occurrence of consecutively high peaks. For the purpose of filtering the dependent observations to obtain a set of approximately independent threshold excesses, a declustering method was performed, which separated the excesses into clusters, then the de-clustered peaks were fitted to the GPD. In both models, values of the shape parameters of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speed were close to zero. The shape parameter was less negative in the GPD than the GEV. This leads to significantly lower return period estimates for high extremes with the GPD model.  相似文献   

2.
The paper presents an analysis of 17 long annual maximum series (AMS) of flood flows for Swiss Alpine basins, aimed at checking the presence of changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima. We apply Pettitt's change point test, the nonparametric sign test and Sen's test on trends. We also apply a parametric goodness‐of‐fit test for assessing the suitability of distributions estimated on the basis of annual maxima collected up to a certain year for describing the frequency regime of later observations. For a number of series the tests yield consistent indications for significant changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima and increasing trends in the intensity of annual maximum discharges. In most cases, these changes cannot be explained by anthropogenic causes only (e.g. streamflow regulation, construction of dams). Instead, we observe a statistically significant relationship between the year of change and the elevation of the catchment outlet. This evidence is consistent with the findings of recent studies that explain increasing discharges in alpine catchments with an increase in the temperature controlling the portion of mountain catchments above the freezing point. Finally, we analyse the differences in return periods (RPs) estimated for a given flood flow on the basis of recent and past observations. For a large number of the study AMS, we observe that, on average, the 100‐year flood for past observations corresponds to a RP of approximately 10 to 30 years on the basis of more recent observation. From a complementary perspective, we also notice that estimated RP‐year flood (i.e. flood quantile (FQ) associated with RP) increases on average by approximately 20% for the study area, irrespectively of the RP. Practical implications of the observed changes are illustrated and discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Flood risk assessment is customarily performed using a design flood. Observed past flows are used to derive a flood frequency curve which forms the basis for a construction of a design flood. The simulation of a distributed model with the 1‐in‐T year design flood as an input gives information on the possible inundation areas, which are used to derive flood risk maps. The procedure is usually performed in a deterministic fashion, and its extension to take into account the design flood‐and flow routing model uncertainties is computer time consuming. In this study we propose a different approach to flood risk assessment which consists of the direct simulation of a distributed flow routing model for an observed series of annual maximum flows and the derivation of maps of probability of inundation of the desired return period directly from the obtained simulations of water levels at the model cross sections through an application of the Flood Level Frequency Analysis. The hydraulic model and water level quantile uncertainties are jointly taken into account in the flood risk uncertainty evaluation using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach. An additional advantage of the proposed approach lies in smaller uncertainty of inundation predictions for long return periods compared to the standard approach. The approach is illustrated using a design flood level and a steady‐state solution of a hydraulic model to derive maps of inundation probabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels and storm surges are correlated with known indices of climatic variability (CV), including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), along some areas of the British Columbia coast. Since a shift to a positive PDO regime in 1977, the effects of ENSO events have been more frequent, persistent, and intense. Teleconnected impacts include more frequent storms, higher surges, and enhanced coastal erosion. The response of oceanographic forcing mechanisms (i.e. tide, surge, wave height, wave period) to CV events and their role in coastal erosion remain unclear, particularly in western Canada. As a first step in exploring the interactions between ocean–atmosphere forcing and beach–dune responses, this paper assembles the historic erosive total water level (TWL) regime and explores relations with observed high magnitude storms that have occurred in the Tofino‐Ucluelet region (Wickaninnish Bay) on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Extreme events where TWL exceeded an erosional threshold (i.e. elevation of the beach–foredune junction) of 5·5 m aCD are examined to identify dominant forcing mechanisms and to classify a regime that describes erosive events driven principally by wave conditions (61·5%), followed by surge (21·8%), and tidal (16·7%) effects. Furthermore, teleconnections between regional CV phenomena, extreme storm events and, by association, coastal erosion, are explored. Despite regional sea level rise (eustatic and steric), rapid crustal uplift rates have resulted in a falling relative sea level and, in some sedimentary systems, shoreline progradation at rates approaching +1·5 m a–1 over recent decades. Foredune erosion occurs locally with a recurrence interval of approximately 1·53 years followed by rapid rebuilding due to high onshore sand supply and often in the presence of large woody debris and rapidly colonizing vegetation in the backshore. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
In 1997–98, unique critical beach erosion led to structural failure along the Penarth, South Wales, UK coastline and anthropogenic activities, such as the construction of the Cardiff Bay Barrage and offshore marine aggregate dredging, were suggested as causes. The time‐frame of significant erosion was between 1995 and 1997 and forcing agents (extreme sea level and wind direction) and shoreline indicators (mean beach level and MHW) were analysed in order to assess change. Water level analysis showed that although there was no significant difference between actual and predicted mean sea levels, extreme sea levels at that time were significantly higher (t = 3·305; d.f. = 8; p < 0·05). Three wind direction analyses (annual mean, mean annual maximum gust and mean annual maximum gust ≥28 kn) between 1995 and 1997 also showed significant differences (p < 0·05). All comprised more easterly components which meant they approached the beach from the sea. Furthermore, gusts ≥28 kn from the northeast quadrant, that is, 0° to 90° true, were significantly more frequent during these years (t = 3·674; d.f. = 8; p < 0·01). Justification of statistical significances was established and there was supporting evidence of unusual meteorological conditions at that time. Relationships showed correlation between forcing agents (extreme sea level and wind direction) and shoreline indicators (mean beach level and Mean High Water). Furthermore, regression analysis showed winds from the northeast quadrant resulted in steeper longshore gradients, as a consequence of beach material loss. Therefore, it was concluded that the critical erosion of Penarth beach between 1995 and 1997 was caused by increased wave attack from the northeast and southeast quadrants, generated by unique significant changes in wind direction and extreme sea levels. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
A series of airborne topographic LiDAR data were obtained from May 2008 to January 2014 over two coastal sites of northern France (Bay of Wissant and east of Dunkirk). These data were used with wind and tide gauge measurements to assess the impacts of storms on beaches and coastal dunes, and particularly of the series of major storms that hit western Europe during the fall and early winter of 2013. Our results show a high variability in shoreline response from one site to the other, but also within each coastal site. Coastal dune erosion and shoreline retreat occurred at both sites, particularly on the coast of the Bay of Wissant where shoreline retreat up to about 40 m was measured. However, stability or even shoreline advance were also observed despite the occurrence of an extreme water level with a return period >100 years during the storm Xaver in early December 2013. Comparison of shoreline change with variations of coastal dune and upper beach volumes revealed only weak relationships. Our results nevertheless showed that shoreline behavior seems to strongly depend on the initial sediment volume on the upper beach before the occurrence of the storms. According to our measurements, an upper beach volume of about 30 m3 m?1 between the dune toe and the mean high water level is sufficient at these sites to protect the coastal dunes from storm waves associated with high water levels with return periods >10 years. The identification of such thresholds in terms of upper beach width or sediment volume may represent valuable information for improving the management of shoreline change by providing an estimate of the minimum quantity of sand on the upper beach necessary to ensure shoreline stability in this region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
This paper presents the development of a multiple‐station neural network for predicting tidal currents across a coastal inlet. Unlike traditional hydrodynamic models, the neural network model does not need inputs of coastal topography and bathymetry, grids, surface and bottom frictions, and turbulent eddy viscosity. Without solving hydrodynamic equations, the neural network model applies an interconnected neural network to correlate the inputs of boundary forcing of water levels at a remote station to the outputs of tidal currents at multiple stations across a local coastal inlet. Coefficients in the neural network model are trained using a continuous dataset consisting of inputs of water levels at a remote station and outputs of tidal currents at the inlet, and verified using another independent input and output dataset. Once the neural network model has been satisfactorily trained and verified, it can be used to predict tidal currents at a coastal inlet from the inputs of water levels at a remote station. For the case study at Shinnecock Inlet in the southern shore of New York, tidal currents at nine stations across the inlet were predicted by the neural network model using water level data located from a station about 70 km away from the inlet. A continuous dataset in May 2000 was used for the training, and another dataset in July 2000 was used for the verification of the neural network model. Comparing model predictions and observations indicates correlation coefficients range from 0·95 to 0·98, and the root‐mean‐square error ranges from 0·04 to 0·08 m s?1 at the nine current locations across the inlet. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Intensive field monitoring of a reach of upland gravel‐bed river illustrates the temporal and spatial variability of in‐channel sedimentation. Over the six‐year monitoring period, the mean bed level in the channel has risen by 0·17 m with a maximum bed level rise of 0·5 m noted at one location over a five month winter period. These rapid levels of aggradation have a profound impact on the number and duration of overbank flows with flood frequency increasing on average 2·6 times and overbank flow time increasing by 12·8 hours. This work raises the profile of coarse sediment transfer in the design and operation of river management, specifically engineering schemes. It emphasizes the need for the implementation of strategic monitoring programmes before engineering work occurs to identify zones where aggradation is likely to be problematic. Exploration of the sediment supply and transfer system can explain patterns of channel sedimentation. The complex spatial, seasonal and annual variability in sediment supply and transfer raise uncertainties into the system's response to potential changes in climate and land‐use. Thus, there is a demand for schemes that monitor coarse sediment transfer and channel response. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
The research presented in this paper involves the application of the joint probability method to the estimation of extreme water levels resulting from astronomical tides and surge residuals and the investigation of the effects of tide–surge interactions on extreme water levels. The distribution of tide peaks was analysed from field records (<20 years) and a 46-year dataset of monthly maximum tidal amplitudes. Large surges were extracted from both field records and a numerical model hindcast covering the 48 largest storm events in the Irish Sea over the period 1959–2005. Extreme storm surges and tides were independently modelled using the generalised extreme value statistical model, and derived probability distributions were used to compute extreme water levels. An important, and novel, aspect of this research is an analysis of tide–surge interactions and their effects on total water level; where interactions exist, they lead to lower total water levels than in the case of independency. The degree of decrease varies with interaction strength, magnitude of surge peak at a particular phase of tide and the distribution of peaks over a tidal cycle. Therefore, including interactions in the computation of extreme levels may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.  相似文献   

11.
For the purpose of coastal planning and management, especially under changing climatic conditions, enhanced knowledge about the evolution of extreme sea levels in the past, present, and future is required. This paper presents statistical analyses of high seasonal water level percentiles of 13 tide gauges in the German Bight, spanning over a period of up to 109 years throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Seasonal and annual high percentile time series of water levels were investigated in comparison to the mean sea level (MSL) for changes on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal timescales. While throughout the first half of the twentieth century extreme water levels generally followed changes in MSL, during the second half of the century, linear extreme sea level trends exceeded those in MSL in the order of 9–64 cm per century. The largest, although insignificant, contribution to the magnitude of these trends occurs in the winter season (January to March), while smaller but, due to the generally lower atmospheric variability, significant changes are observed during spring (April to June). The observed multi-decadal trends are generally in good agreement with multi-decadal trends in the corresponding percentiles of local zonal surface winds. Only small parts of the trends remain unexplained. It is suggested that these remaining trends result from modifications in the local tidal regime. For the aspects of coastal planning, the findings clarify that in the German Bight, in addition to changes in MSL, potential changes in storminess and in the tidal regime significantly contribute to the development of extreme water levels. Since these factors have influenced the characteristic of extremes throughout the recent past, they also have to be taken into account when estimating design water levels for, e.g., dikes (in a warming climate) under changing greenhouse gas emissions.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract

Seasonal design floods which consider information on seasonal variation are very important for reservoir operation and management. The seasonal design flood method currently used in China is based on seasonal maximum (SM) samples and assumes that the seasonal design frequency is equal to the annual design frequency. Since the return period associated with annual maximum floods is taken as the standard in China, the current seasonal design flood cannot satisfy flood prevention standards. A new seasonal design flood method, which considers dates of flood occurrence and magnitudes of the peaks (runoff), was proposed and established based on copula function. The mixed von Mises distribution was selected as marginal distribution of flood occurrence dates. The Pearson Type III and exponential distributions were selected as the marginal distribution of flood magnitude for annual maximum flood series and peak-over-threshold samples, respectively. The proposed method was applied at the Geheyan Reservoir, China, and then compared with the currently used seasonal design flood methods. The case study results show that the proposed method can satisfy the flood prevention standard, and provide more information about the flood occurrence probabilities in each sub-season. The results of economic analysis show that the proposed design flood method can enhance the floodwater utilization rate and give economic benefits without lowering the annual flood protection standard.

Citation Chen, L., Guo, S. L., Yan, B. W., Liu, P. & Fang, B. (2010) A new seasonal design flood method based on bivariate joint distribution of flood magnitude and date of occurrence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1264–1280.  相似文献   

13.
Daily rain series from southern Sweden with records dating back to the 1870s have been analysed to investigate the trends of daily and multi‐day precipitation of different return periods with emphasis on the extremes. Probabilities of extreme storms were determined as continuously changing values based on 25 years of data. An extra set of data was used to investigate changes in Skåne, the southernmost peninsula of Sweden. Another 30‐year data set of more than 200 stations of a dense gauge network in Skåne was used to investigate the relation between very large daily rainfall and annual precipitation. The annual precipitation has increased significantly all over southern Sweden due to increased winter precipitation. There is a trend of increasing maximum annual daily precipitation at only one station, where the annual maximum often occurs in winter. The number of events with a short return period is increasing, but the number of more extreme events has not increased. Daily and multi‐daily design storms of long return periods determined from extreme value analysis with updating year by year are not higher today than during the last 100 years. The largest daily storms are not related to stations with annual rainfall but seem to occur randomly. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Sublimation from thin snow cover at the edge of the Eurasian cryosphere in Mongolia was calculated using the aerodynamic profile method and verified by eddy covariance observations using multiple‐level meteorological data from three sites representing a variety of geographic and vegetative conditions in Mongolia. Data were collected in the winter and analysed from three sites. Intense sublimation events, defined by daily sublimation levels of more than 0·4 mm, were predominant in their effect on the temporal variability of sublimation. The dominant meteorological elements affecting sublimation were wind speed and air temperature, with the latter affecting sublimation indirectly through the vapour deficit. Seasonal and interannual variations in sublimation were investigated using long‐interval estimations for 19 years at a mountainous‐area meteorological station and for 24 years at a flat‐plain meteorological station. The general seasonal pattern indicated higher rates of sublimation in both the beginning and ending of the snow‐covered period, when the wind speed and vapour deficit were higher. Annual sublimation averaged 11·7 mm at the flat‐plain meteorological station, or 20·3% of the annual snowfall, and 15·7 mm at the site in the mountains, or 21·6% of snowfall. The sum of snow sublimation and snowmelt evaporation represented 17 to 20% of annual evapotranspiration in a couple observation years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
ABSTRACT

The occurrence of cyclic fluctuations and trends in water levels has been tested by examining a long-term series of mean annual water levels in 11 outflow lakes, mostly groove lakes, located in Northern Poland between 14° E and 23° E and situated at different altitudes up to 120 m above sea level.

Analysis of the occurrence of cyclic fluctuations of water levels has been carried out by means of mass curves. The regression method together with the moving average method applied to 10-year values of mean annual water levels were used to establish the trend in water levels.

On the basis of the research completed, it has been stated that long-term fluctuations of mean annual water levels of the lakes under investigation, in spite of the absence of a distinct periodicity, are characterized by a cycle with a 23-year period. The studies of the trends of mean annual water levels revealed a negative tendency ranging from—0·059 to—0·402 cm per annum.  相似文献   

16.
The index flood procedure coupled with the L‐moments method is applied to the annual flood peaks data taken at all stream‐gauging stations in Turkey having at least 15‐year‐long records. First, screening of the data is done based on the discordancy measure (Di) in terms of the L‐moments. Homogeneity of the total geographical area of Turkey is tested using the L‐moments based heterogeneity measure, H, computed on 500 simulations generated using the four parameter Kappa distribution. The L‐moments analysis of the recorded annual flood peaks data at 543 gauged sites indicates that Turkey as a whole is hydrologically heterogeneous, and 45 of 543 gauged sites are discordant which are discarded from further analyses. The catchment areas of these 543 sites vary from 9·9 to 75121 km2 and their mean annual peak floods vary from 1·72 to 3739·5 m3 s?1. The probability distributions used in the analyses, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method are the general extreme values (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type III (PE3), generalized Pareto (GPA), and five‐parameter Wakeby (WAK). Based on the L‐moment ratio diagrams and the |Zdist|‐statistic criteria, the GEV distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area (498 gauged sites). Hence, for estimation of flood magnitudes of various return periods in Turkey, a regional flood frequency relationship is developed using the GEV distribution. Next, the quantiles computed at all of 543 gauged sites by the GEV and the Wakeby distributions are compared with the observed values of the same probability based on two criteria, mean absolute relative error and determination coefficient. Results of these comparisons indicate that both distributions of GEV and Wakeby, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method, are adequate in predicting quantile estimates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Ground water discharge and nitrate flux to the Gulf of Mexico   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Ground water samples (37 to 186 m depth) from Baldwin County, Alabama, are used to define the hydrogeology of Gulf coastal aquifers and calculate the subsurface discharge of nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico. The ground water flow and nitrate flux have been determined by linking ground water concentrations to 3H/3He and 4He age dates. The middle aquifer (A2) is an active flow system characterized by postnuclear tritium levels, moderate vertical velocities, and high nitrate concentrations. Ground water discharge could be an unaccounted source for nutrients in the coastal oceans. The aquifers annually discharge 1.1 +/- 0.01 x 10(8) moles of nitrate to the Gulf of Mexico, or 50% and 0.8% of the annual contributions from the Mobile-Alabama River System and the Mississippi River System, respectively. In southern Baldwin County, south of Loxley, increasing reliance on ground water in the deeper A3 aquifer requires accurate estimates of safe ground water withdrawal. This aquifer, partially confined by Pliocene clay above and Pensacola Clay below, is tritium dead and contains elevated 4He concentrations with no nitrate and estimated ground water ages from 100 to 7000 years. The isotopic composition and concentration of natural gas diffusing from the Pensacola Clay into the A3 aquifer aids in defining the deep ground water discharge. The highest 4He and CH4 concentrations are found only in the deepest sample (Gulf State Park), indicating that ground water flow into the Gulf of Mexico suppresses the natural gas plume. Using the shape of the CH4-He plume and the accumulation of 4He rate (2.2 +/- 0.8 microcc/kg/1000 years), we estimate the natural submarine discharge and the replenishment rate for the A3 aquifer.  相似文献   

18.
Historical records of monthly streamflow and precipitation coupled with mean, minimum, and maximum air temperatures for Washington State were used to study the variation and the trend characteristics that occurred over the last 50 years (1952–2002). Results indicate that the 1967 statewide water resource assessment needs to be updated because all of the stations used in that study exhibited a decreasing trend in annual streamflow ranging from ?0·9% to ?49·3%, with an arithmetic mean of ?11·7% and a median value of ?9·8%. Furthermore, a slightly decreasing trend in annual streamflow, although not statistically significant, was detected. The decreasing streamflow magnitude was about ?1·178 mm year?2, or 4·88 m3 s?1 year?1, which caused a decrease in annual streamflow in the state of about 58·9 mm, or 244 m3 s?1. This magnitude was about 9·6% of the average annual streamflow for the entire state from 1952 to 2002. Contrastingly, the overall annual precipitation in the entire state increased 1·375 mm year?2. Overall the annual means of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature increased by 0·122, 0·048, and 0·185 °C/10 years, respectively, during the study period. Thus the corresponding annual means of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures increased by 0·61, 0·24, and 0·93 °C, respectively. All of these trends and magnitudes were found to vary considerably from station to station and month to month. The possible reasons resulting in these detected trends include, but are not limited to, human activities, climate variability and changes, and land use and land cover changes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.  相似文献   

20.
With the objective of modelling annual rainfall maximum intensities in different geographical zones of Chile, we have created a Bayesian inference method for the generalized extreme value type I distribution (Gumbel distribution). We considered an uninformative prior distribution for the location parameter, μ, and three different prior distributions for the scale parameter, σ. Under these conditions we obtained the posterior distribution of (μ, σ) and associated summary statistics such as modes, expected values, quantiles and credibility intervals. In order to predict and estimate return periods, we obtained the posterior distribution of future observations, its expected value, quantiles and credibility intervals. To obtain several of these posterior summary measures it was necessary to utilize both numerical and Laplace approximations. Furthermore we estimate return period curves and intensity–duration–frequency curves.  相似文献   

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