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1.
Chandna RC 《Population geography : a journal of the Association of Population Geographers of India》1989,11(1-2):77-85
Population policy and the 5-year plans since 1951 in India are reivewed and evaluated in terms of limiting population growth. The family planning (FP) programs have not had a major impact on people's attitudes, practice of contraceptives, or the average fertility rate. Not enough attention has been paid to the interaction of demographic structure and economic and social development, and the implications for limiting population growth. Vital elements of a population policy are containing population growth, limiting births among the young and reproductive age groups, enhancing employment options for males and females, diversifying the economy, improving literacy and educational standards, improving urban/rural ratios, and balancing male/female ratios. Several approaches to FP programs are possible: long term measures to improve the social, economic, and demographic structure, and short term measures to immediately avert births. Long term approaches recognize the complexity of the problem. Rapid socioeconomic development is the best contraceptive for controlling India's population. A well conceived population education program can help, as will increasing the marriage age, preventing children from entering the labor market, increasing female education levels, providing old age pension and social security and other insurance, and providing maternity benefits for small families. Short term measures may provide temporary or permanent methods of averting births; i.e., contraceptives, sterilization, penalties and rewards for small families. However, it must not be a bureaucratic measure imposed from above. It must be a self generating process. The author suggests that simultaneous long and short term approaches are necessary. Research should be conducted to delineate which measures have the most impact on reducing fertility and policy be formulated in accordance with these answers. Compulsion is required, and government should not hesitate to step in. In rural areas, traditional and modern methods in FP should be tried in order to achieve responsible behavior. The population increases in India were a result of a mortality decline starting in 1921 and a fertility decline starting in 1971. Attention must focus on high fertility areas such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The 7th 5-year plan was important for making FP voluntary and generating an environment for fertility decline, and the 8th should establish FP as a self generating process. 相似文献
2.
Graham E 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》1995,15(3):219-232
Singapore experienced an extraordinary demographic transition from a population growth of over 4% per year in the late 1950s to around 1.6% in the 1990s and below replacement fertility since 1986. In 1987 official government policy shifted to measures for increasing fertility. This paper explores whether Singapore's pronatalist policies can reverse the demographic transition. The present policies aim to selectively increase fertility among the well educated. By 1987 the slogan switched from "stop at two" to "have three, if you can afford it." The policy included tax relief for a third child and other measures to encourage a third child. The policies are expected to have a different influence on society according to one's education, income, and family size. The government target is to selectively increase population by 40% over 25 years. Singapore's transition may follow the theory that low fertility is attained in societies where kin relationships are less important than personal educational achievements. The three ethnic groups responded differently to educational and fertility policies. The Chinese acquired the best education and attained the lowest fertility. The Chinese, who comprised 76% of total population in 1986, continued to have low fertility, while increases occurred among the Malays and the Indians. Future trends are considered difficult to predict. A survey conducted in 1992 in Ang Mo Kio among 489 reproductive age respondents revealed that Malays had the earliest marriage and first births before the age of 25 years (75% of Malays and 50% of Indians). The Chinese had their first child at 25 years or older. Without controls for the age of the mother, a strong statistically significant association was found between ethnic group and age at marriage and age at first birth. The relationship was not supported for current fertility. A comparison of women married for 5 years or less and 5 years or more revealed that women in recent marriages showed a greater likelihood of postponing marriage and childbirth for all ethnic groups. Since 1987, third order births as a percentage of all births increased from 21.47% before 1987 to 23.11% during 1987-92, which only suggests the favorable impact of the pronatalist policy. Educational changes are likely to become more influential in affecting choice of family size. 相似文献
3.
Demographic transition in Sri Lanka: a spatial perspective 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Fuller GA 《Population geography : a journal of the Association of Population Geographers of India》1984,6(1-2):1-11
Demographic transition theory involves a lagging fertility transition induced by a leading mortality transition. This article focuses on the linkage between the mortality and fertility transitions in Sri Lanka; it discusses the measurement of areal fertility, demonstrates the use of a measure not commonly used in population geography, and shows areal association between past mortality and recent fertility. The Coale or Princeton fertility indices allow a reasonably good view of structural and behavioral aspects of fertility; the Coale indices examine the contribution of structure to total fertility and the contribution of marital fertility. Although recent fertility decline has been less rapid than the post-war mortality decline, Sri Lanka's crude birth rate in 1975 was the 5th lowest in Asia. Sri Lanka experienced very high crude death rates in 1930, and quite low rates in 1950 and in subsequent years. This demonstrates an association between historic mortality and recent fertility, and that association can be linked deductively to demographic transition theory. In 1930, malaria was endemic throughout the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka, and hyperendemic in several districts. The Spearman rank correlation coefficients reveal the strongest relationship between malaria and nuptiality; this lends evidence to the notion that structural influences on fertility--such as delayed marriage--are more important than influences on marital fertility--such as coital frequency. The evidence suggests that mortalily decline in Sri Lanka led to an increase in fertility in those areas where malaria had been concentrated. This suggests the possibility that measures constituting malaria control or eradication also stimulate increased fertility; therefore, anti-malarial programs must be integrated with family planning. 相似文献
4.
1990—2015年中国县市尺度人口收缩的演变特征及影响因素 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
近年来,区域人口收缩问题在全球范围内引起了广泛关注,并且在中国也日益明显。利用1990年、2000年和2010年人口普查数据以及2015年1%人口抽样调查数据,本文在县市尺度上分析了1990—2000年、2000—2010年和2010—2015年三个时期人口收缩区的空间特征及演化趋势,并定量探讨了其形成与演变的影响因素,主要发现如下：① 人口收缩现象在县市尺度非常明显,三个时期人口收缩区占比均超过20%;② 2000—2010年人口收缩区以大面积扩张为主要特征,东北地区、川黔渝地区、长江中游地区最为明显,而东部地区则主要集中在江苏北部和福建西部等局部范围;③ 2010—2015年人口收缩转缓慢增长成为主要特征,仅东北地区、河南等人口收缩区仍有所扩张;④ 人均GDP和非农就业占比等经济发展水平因素对人口收缩区的形成影响显著,而经济发展速度因素则与人口收缩的演变密切相关;⑤ 除经济因素外,人口自然增长因素对人口收缩区形成及演变的影响均非常显著,且其作用呈增强趋势。 相似文献
5.
Gupta HS Baghel A 《Population geography : a journal of the Association of Population Geographers of India》1994,16(1-2):49-58
"The present paper explains the fertility differentials among socio-cultural groups and regions in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh and examines the role of such factors as general and female literacy, age at marriage and infant mortality in determining the fertility levels. The study indicates that no single factor is of overwhelming importance. These factors in combination, as revealed by multivariate analysis, account for about 29 percent inter-district variation in fertility in the state." 相似文献
6.
"This paper explores the relationships between ethnicity, class and the New Population Policy (NPP) in Singapore in the context of its nation state project.... The paper uses data from a sample of the Singaporean population to investigate the impact of the NPP on both ethnic and income (class) groups in order to assess the importance of the ethnic dimension in this aspect of Singapore's development strategy. It concludes that, although differences in fertility behaviour may be rooted in ethnic identity, the control that the government wishes to exert over that behaviour as part of its nation-building project has largely been effected through class interests, and may be better interpreted as part of a broader strategy of human resource management which is attracting the attention of other Asian newly industrialising countries." 相似文献
7.
This paper documents and summarizes data on the recent fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa and reviews the critical theoretical, methodological, and policy issues and controversies that the African situation provokes. After an introduction, African fertility change for the period 1960-94 is described through a discussion of fertility trends and of the proximate determinants of the fertility change. This discussion is illustrated with tables on the total fertility rate for countries of sub-Saharan Africa for the periods 1975-85 and 1986-93, and total fertility rates for countries participating in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for the periods 0-3 and 4-7 years prior to the survey. Figures show maps of Africa displaying total fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa for 1975-85 and 1986- 93, and graphs of absolute and percentage change in total fertility rates for DHS countries between periods 0-3 and 4-7 years prior to the survey. The next section deals with theoretical issues such as whether the classic model of demographic transition is applicable to Africa and Jack Caldwell's views that cultural values make Africa different. It is seen that existing theory is of limited value in explaining the recent fertility decline in the region and that the two theories are beginning to converge to some degree. Consideration of methodological issues centers on the limited usefulness of fertility data collected by the large-scale, standardized demographic surveys to aid in the identification of patterns and processes. The discussion of policy issues is concerned with how survey data have been used and interpreted to formulate policy. The paper closes by reviewing the east Asian, South African, and Caribbean models of fertility decline and discussing problems in predicting the nature and extent of future fertility change in sub-Saharan Africa in light of recent findings. 相似文献
8.
Sacks MP 《Post-Soviet geography》1995,36(1):1-12
Like the former Soviet Union, Russia is home to many ethnic groups. The Russian Federal Treaty of March 1992 was signed by 18 ethnically-based republics and 17 non-Russian ethnic districts. Ethnic groups within Russia vary considerably in levels of socioeconomic achievement, with groups having had unequal access to political resources and differing in their ability to take advantage of economic opportunities. The author analyzed newly available occupational data from the 1989 census in his study of ethnic and gender differences in the work force of Russia. Measurements are presented showing differences between the occupations of Russians and the next largest 11 ethnic groups, producing a clear hierarchy of groups. The extent of occupational gender differences within each ethnic group is measured and contrasted with the level of differences between ethnic groups. These data are important for showing potential sources of group conflict and for providing a baseline to measure changing forms of inequality which have been promoted by post-Soviet developments. Preliminary findings point to the existence of highly significant differences between Russia's ethnic groups, with the level of the differences closely paralleling measures of socioeconomic achievement. To determine more precisely the significance of group differences in employment, detailed occupational categories must be examined more closely. Currently available data, however, do not permit more rigorous measurements of discrimination. It is nonetheless clear that ethnicity in contemporary Russia is strongly related to occupational differences. The aggregate segregation of men from women was found to be very stable despite the substantial socioeconomic and cultural differences between ethnic groups. As a group, Jews were found to have extremely high levels of educational and occupational achievement and a comparatively far older age structure. 相似文献
9.
Mehta S 《Population geography : a journal of the Association of Population Geographers of India》1996,18(1-2):27-36
This paper attempts to examine the differences in sex preference and its impact on fertility behavior among various age groups in the State of Haryana. In India, male children have greater utility over females because of religious, social and economic reasons. Various studies have established the fact that there is a prevalence of sex preference and a marked relationship between son preference and family size. This leads to increased fertility, and ultimately towards population growth rate. Data were collected from the National Family Health Survey report in 1993. The intensity of sex preference on fertility was computed on the basis of contraception method. Moreover, detailed analysis was carried out on the basis of desired additional children and their sex ratio. This study also presents an examination of the Indian system, family planning measures, sex ratio of desired additional children taken as a basis for the measurement of overall effect of sex preference on fertility. 相似文献
10.
许路艳 《云南地理环境研究》2019,(2):67-74
人口生育政策变化会对区域未来人口发展产生直接影响,“全面二孩”政策是继“单独二孩”政策之后逐步放宽生育政策的又一重大举措。结合政策变动,筛选政策受众人群进行精准化预测:未来15年,曲靖市20~39岁育龄妇女将净减少3.7万人,其中符合“全面二孩”生育政策且在20~39岁育龄妇女人口规模将缩减近0.7万;结合“全面二孩”政策最终兑现人口的测算,从2016年至2020年间会产生一个“二孩”生育高峰期,过了高峰期之后将渐落并减少至2.23万,较高峰期缩减0.82万人。“全面二孩”政策进一步调整和完善了生育政策,但后期效果不明显,面对“后人口转变”时代的到来,低生育率、老龄化的人口发展新格局,要实现人口与社会经济的协调发展,仍需与时俱进做出入口政策相应调整。 相似文献
11.
房价与人口的关系是人文经济地理学研究的热点领域,本文选取长江三角洲地区作为研究区域,利用区域内41个城市11年（2008—2018年）的数据,分别采用差分GMM模型及LSDVC法,从整体和分组的层面分析城市房价与生育率的关系。整体模拟结果表明,城市房价上涨的速度对于生育率有着显著的负向作用：房价上涨得越快,生育率下降得越快。同时,以房价收入比衡量的居民购房能力对生育率也有着显著的影响,居民购房能力下降得越快,生育率也下降得越快。分组研究的结果表明,不同房价水平的城市,生育率受购房能力影响程度不同,中等房价水平及较低房价水平的城市,其生育率更容易受到购房能力波动的影响。基于以上研究结果,提出严控房价涨幅速度、适当提高购房补贴、提高居民收入等政策建议,以期提高区域内居民整体生育意愿,促进人口增长。 相似文献
12.
《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2012,66(1-2):5-17
Sparsely populated areas in present-day North West Europe are almost automatically associated with demographic decline, in particular when studied on a local level. An image of an urn-like age pyramid, bulging near the top and with a slim base, presents itself to the observer. But it should not be forgotten that such a situation, with more deaths than births, is a long-term elTect of years and years of net out-migration. The analysis of geographic mobility thus becomes more important than fertility and mortality stud- ies. We want to understand how the age pyramid has become an urn. 相似文献
13.
Cato PT 《Soviet geography》1982,23(1):31-48
"Among certain ethnic groups in the USSR, males and females have different levels of retention of the native language. Male and female levels vary inside and outside the home territory depending on the general strength of the language, ethnic rights in the place of residence, and migrant versus non-migrant status. Additional distinctions correspond to cultural divisions, principally Moslem versus non-Moslem." 相似文献
14.
婚姻圈作为民族社会建构的重要机制,以及族群认同的表现形式和民族文化传承载体,对其现况及未来的研究关乎散居族群的社会经济和文化发展大计。采用口述史、深度访谈法及文本分析的方法研究发现:贵州坡帽仡佬族的婚姻圈经历了族内异地通婚——族内本地通婚与近邻异族通婚——族内本地、近邻异族与异地异族通婚并存等几个阶段的演化。在传统农业社会,散居族群经历了居住、社会和教育多重隔离,通婚受族群性影响,以异地族内通婚为主;而在长期散杂居过程中,族际之间的长期接触融合,其婚姻圈又产生空间近邻性效应,异族通婚开始出现;中国社会转型期及经济一体化使散居族群的婚姻场域发生急剧变化,由此导致远距离通婚,族群性与空间近邻性效应开始减弱。坡帽仡佬族的婚姻圈演化反映了散居族群与主体社会关系的建构过程,但散居族群尚无独立发展的力量。当随着族群内部原有稳定性的打破,族群语言、文化习俗如何保留,族群认同如何维系等都将面临很大的挑战。通过婚姻圈变化之研究视角,关注全球化影响下少数族群文化的保护和发扬问题,是文化扩散和文化整合研究领域新的尝试。 相似文献
15.
采用第六次中国人口普查数据,基于全面二孩实施背景,预测未来中国与省际城乡人口规模以及省际人口迁移规模;采用2010年人口数据和2020年预测人口数据,从对比视角分析了中国省际人口迁移格局变化及其对城镇化发展的影响。研究发现：① 城乡全面放开二孩政策不会带来区域人口数量的剧烈反弹;② 综合考虑省际人口迁移方向与强度,将中国31个省份划分为4种类型;③ 省际人口迁移促进了城镇化率的提高及省际差异的缩小,对2010~2020年中国城镇化率的增加的贡献占到了30.77%。 相似文献
16.
"This paper provides estimates of ethnic minority populations in 1981 in Greater London so that spatial population change can be measured. The estimation method involves the application of conditional probabilities of ethnicity given the country of birth. Several different data sources from the census of population have been used to compute the conditional probabilities. Each of these sources has deficiencies; the new method proposed here employs data on 1981-91 survivors in the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS). The estimated ethnic minority populations for 1981 are smaller than those generated using 1991 Census data, and hence the estimate of change is larger. Careful pairwise comparisons are made between alternative estimates. A set of very different maps of change, based on the LS method, are presented and interpreted for the ethnic groups of London at the borough scale." 相似文献
17.
Shabad T 《Soviet geography》1980,21(7):440-488
This article is based on summary results concerning ethnic composition in the USSR according to the 1979 census. "These results...have been rearranged... to reflect not only the ethnic composition of the USSR and of its republics over time (1959, 1970, 1979), but also shifts in the distribution of particular ethnic groups. Furthermore, ethnic groups are discussed in a regional sequence. In combination with the migration tables based on previous results of the 1979 census...some conclusions can be drawn concerning the ethnic makeup of migrants among republics." 相似文献
18.
以中国文化遗产为研究对象,获取1989—2019年全国文物保护单位、国家级非物质文化遗产、国家级博物馆的基础数据,从整体上探究国家级文化遗产所表现的多元一体格局及其演进,研究表明：① 中国民族文化交融化趋势明显,民族交融文化遗产份额持续上升;② 中国民族文化平等化趋势明显,国家级文化遗产已涵盖全部民族,少数民族文化遗产份额波动上升;③ 中国民族文化原真化趋势明显,各民族文化遗产的分布特征表明在各民族聚居区文化遗产原真性和完整性保护得到充分体现;④ 中国文化遗产所呈现的多元一体民族结构,受到人口、经济、政策因素的影响,其中,人口表现出十分稳定的基础性作用,经济表现出持续弱化的支持性作用,政策表现出较为明显的动力性作用。 相似文献
19.
中国民间抱养行为由来已久,家庭送养的决策将完全改变儿童的生存和发展的轨迹。囿于送养的隐蔽性和复杂性,且相关研究匮乏,亟需系统性的剖析。文章基于公益平台寻亲数据,运用社会网络、空间分析、数理统计以及地理探测器的方法,探究1981—2010年家庭送养的时空分异特征,并进一步归纳送养决策的流程及原因机制。结果表明：1）送养主体为未满1周岁女童。2）送养人数在时间上呈现“先增后减”的倒“U”型分布,在空间上主要分布在中国东部、中部以及川渝地区。3）家庭送养原因以经济贫困为主,违反生育政策的影响次之。当家庭面临狭小的生育空间时,重男轻女的思想会被强化。4）地理探测器结果揭示,人口因素是影响送养空间分异最主要的原因,自然灾害、计划生育和经济因素在不同时期产生较大影响。5）基于理性选择理论提出了多尺度下的家庭送养的影响机制,认为家庭在作理性送养决策时,往往遵循生存理性、经济理性、制度理性以及社会理性的原则。 相似文献
20.
Gould WT 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》1995,15(3):203-218
It is argued that the research agenda on fertility decline needs to be explanatory rather than operational and not tied to government policy justification. The research agenda should be set in the broader developmental and geographic contexts and with consideration of cultural practices. Demographic and Health Surveys provide limited biosocial data, which does not provide a fuller analysis of the factors affecting contraceptive use and effectiveness. Clear associations are drawn between rising contraceptive use and fertility decline and are used as supports for national and international policy makers. Although policy formation may be justified by this research agenda, the view is taken that this is "bad science." Kenya has been used as a model for population change in Africa. Kenya is viewed as a country with obvious direct government involvement in policies on fertility reduction, which mirror the ideological biases of the global model. The global model assumes a universal relationship between fertility and contraceptive prevalence and attaches little significance to cultural differences. However, research recognizes that in Africa family relationships, land tenure, and economic organization are different and highly variable. If economic and social variables on Kenya were available, it is possible that the economic change hypothesis could be proven. Kenya has great regional differences and wide gaps in levels of development. For many countries population growth is the key factor in development, and policies reflect the threat of loan conditions or reductions in foreign aid. Many African countries moved in the direction of reducing population growth through improved health and education, more jobs, improved status of women, and other indirect measures. This approach relies on the Western model of demographic transition. This author argues that knowledge and conclusions about fertility in Africa are more conditioned by ideology rather than technical concerns. In the case of Kenya ideology is supported by research, but a fuller explanation of family formation is not yet available. Kenya's population policy is based on the contraception hypothesis, and data are not yet available for testing other alternative child mortality or economic change hypotheses and constructively informing policy makers about fertility decline. 相似文献