共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 187 毫秒
1.
本文基于国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1自1960—2004年每年起报的年代际预测试验结果,初步评估了该模式对北极涛动（AO）的预报技巧。同时,把该模式年代际预测结果与历史试验模拟比较,分析了气候模式初始化对年代际试验预测季节尺度AO及其年际变化的贡献。结果表明,年代际试验和历史试验均能反映出AO模态是北半球中高纬大气变率第一模态的特征,其中年代际预测试验回报的AO模态与观测的空间相关系数高于历史试验。两组试验基本能再现AO指数冬季最强、夏季最弱的特征。与历史试验相比,年代际预测试验回报月和冬季AO指数与观测的相关系数更高,特别是年代际试验与观测的月AO指数相关系数达到了0.1的显著性水平。年代际试验回报月、春季AO指数的变化周期更接近观测结果。因此,年代际试验中初始状态使用海温资料进行初始化,在一定程度上可以提高AO的回报能力。 相似文献
2.
对比国家气候中心耦合模式BCC_CSM1.1提交CMIP5的历史（Historical）试验和年代际（Decadal）回报试验对中国气候及其年代际变化的模拟。结果表明,Decadal试验回报的中国降水气候分布更接近观测,回报的中国东部气温和降水的年代际距平误差比Historical试验减小明显。对于发生在20世纪70年代末的中国东部降水年代际变化,Decadal试验能回报出长江中下游降水增多的特征,但Historical试验模拟的降水变化与观测相反。由于Decadal试验和Historical试验的区别之一是后者利用观测海温资料进行了初始化,为了探讨观测海温信息的重要性,进一步将Decadal试验与恢复（Nudging）试验（即模式积分过程中,模拟海温始终向观测海温恢复）的模拟结果进行对比。发现Nudging试验能够较好地模拟出“南涝北旱”型降水变化,也能够模拟出相应的东亚急流增强且偏南的特征。这表明气候模式对海温的回报能力是影响其对东亚气候年代际异常模拟的一个重要因素。 相似文献
3.
外强迫对北半球冬季大气环流年代际变化影响的数值模拟 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
利用IAP／LASG GOALS模式模拟研究了人类活动和太阳活动对北半球冬季大气环流年代际变化的影响。模拟结果表明,温室气体是影响大气环流变化的一个基本因子,即考虑了温室气体浓度变化的GOALS模式可以很好地反映近50年来大气环流年代际变化的基本特征,同时由于太阳活动和硫酸盐气溶胶的影响,使得大气环流年代际变化的模拟结果更接近观测事实。东亚大槽和北美大槽1960年代中后期明显偏强及1980年代后期显著减弱,以及从1960年代开始西伯利亚高压的减弱和北太平洋涛动(NPO)的增大趋势。最后初步分析了该模式对中国东部气候变化的影响,该模式亦能较好地反映中国东部气候的年代际变化特征：1960年代中后期明显的偏冷时期和1980年代中期开始的显著增暖期。 相似文献
4.
CMIP5多模式资料中气温的BMA预测方法研究 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
利用CMIP5的8个全球气候系统模式对气温的回报结果进行贝叶斯模式平均(简称BMA)试验,并采用均方根误差、距平相关系数、连续等级概率评分等对多模式集合平均(简称EMN)和BMA的回报结果进行检验、评估。结果表明,EMN的回报效果优于8个单模式的回报效果,而BMA的回报效果最好,其区域平均的均方根误差比EMN小0.5℃左右。在此基础上,利用中等排放情景RCP4.5下CMIP5模式中的年际年代际预估资料对2011—2035年的气温进行预估。研究发现东亚地区在2011—2035年气温将普遍升高,海洋上的增暖幅度较小,陆地上的增暖幅度较大,且增暖幅度随纬度升高而增大。青藏高原及中国北方大部分地区气温将明显升高,升温幅度在1℃左右,而南方的升温幅度较小,约为0.3~0.6℃。 相似文献
5.
《高原气象》2016,(5)
国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1参与了第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的年代际试验,研究中采用了一种系统误差的订正方法对该模式年代际试验的回报数据进行订正,检验了该方法能否提高模式对热带SST的回报效果。对1960-1990年每5年开展一组的年代际回报试验分析表明,未订正前,年代际试验尽管使用了观测海温资料进行初始化,但对随后海温的实际演变预测能力很低。不同组起报时间的回报试验对逐月海温的预测与对应时段的观测资料,仅在西太平洋及热带北大西洋海域存在一致的正相关关系。经订正后,考虑了模式回报与观测之间误差的统计信息,对全球海温的回报技巧明显提高,尤其是在热带太平洋和南半球印度洋。在热带太平洋海域,订正的模式结果与对应观测的空间相关系数在起报后120个月基本保持在0.8以上,经订正的模式结果对太平洋海温的模态分布更接近观测事实。表明这一误差订正的方法有助于减小模式误差,对预测热带SST有重要的科学参考。 相似文献
6.
《高原气象》2017,(2)
利用1961—2005年西南地区(四川、贵州、云南、重庆)115个站点的地表气温观测资料以及国际耦合模式比较第五阶段(CMIP5)的历史模拟试验数据,从气温增暖强度、年代际变化和突变三个角度,评估了40个全球气候系统模式对西南地区地表气温的模拟能力。结果表明:大部分模式能模拟出近45年来西南地区不同分区年平均气温的显著升高趋势,但仅6个模式能较好的模拟出地表气温增温幅度的海拔依赖性特征。海拔较低的四川盆地、重庆丘陵地区年平均气温在20世纪60年代至80年代后期呈降温趋势,80年代末开始升温,70年代中期到90年代中期是一个相对较冷的时期,10个模式能模拟出这种降温趋势,其中3个模式模拟降温趋势、年代际偏冷时间与观测结果最为接近,模拟效果较好。所有模式均不能模拟出气温的突变特征。总体来说,对西南地区气温变化模拟相对较好的模式有ACCESS1.0、CESM 1-WACCM、CM CC-CM S、GFDL-CM 2.1、GISS-E2-R-CC、M RI-ESM 1、Nor ESM 1-M E,其中,模拟效果最好的模式为ACCESS1.0。 相似文献
7.
BCC_CSM1.1对10年尺度全球及区域温度的预测研究 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
近期10～30年时间尺度的年代际预测是第五次耦合模式国际比较计划(CMIP5)重要内容之一。按照CMIP5试验要求, 国家气候中心利用气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1完成并提交了年代际试验结果。本文评估了该模式年代际试验对10年尺度全球及区域地表温度的预测能力, 并通过与20世纪历史气候模拟试验的对比分析, 研究模式模拟对海洋初始观测状态的依赖程度。分析结果表明:(1)在有、无海洋初始化条件下, 模式均能模拟出1960～2005年间全球10年平均实测地表温度的变暖趋势, 但在有海洋初始化条件下, 可以明显减小BCC_CSM1.1模式模拟的全球升温趋势, 使得年代际试验比历史试验的结果更接近观测值。这一特点在观测资料相对丰富的南北纬50°以内地区更为显著。(2)在年代际试验预测前期, 通过Nudging方法, 利用SODA再分析海洋温度资料对模式进行初始化, 经过前期8～12月的协调后, 模式预测的第1年南北纬50°范围海洋、陆面的平均地表气温接近于观测值(CRUTEM3, HadSST2)。由于模式初值SODA再分析SST资料与HadSST2观测值存在明显的全球大洋系统暖偏差以及模式本身系统偏差的影响, 年代际试验模拟的地表气温在2～7年之内, 从观测SST状态逐渐恢复到模式系统本身状态。在同组Decadal试验中, 陆面和海洋恢复调整的时间长度几乎一致。(3) 从10年平均气候异常在区域尺度上的预报技巧来看, 有、无海洋初始同化对预测结果影响不大, 高预测技巧区主要分布在南半球印度洋中高纬度、热带西太平洋以及热带大西洋区域。(4)SST变化与下垫面热通量密切相关, 在热带和副热带海洋区域, 长波辐射和感热通量是影响10年时间尺度SST变化较大的物理量, 在中高纬度海洋, 洋面温度变化主要受潜热通量的影响相对较大。 相似文献
8.
分位数映射法在RegCM4中国气温模拟订正中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
将一种分位数映射法RQUANT,应用到一个区域气候模式（RegCM4）所模拟中国气温的误差订正中。从气候平均态、年际变率、极端气候及农业气候等多方面,评估了该方法对日平均气温、日最高气温和日最低气温模拟的订正效果。结果表明,该订正方法对模式模拟的日平均、日最高和最低气温气候平均态的订正效果都非常明显,中国大部分地区的订正结果与观测的偏差在±0.5℃之间。在降低极端气温指数和农业气候相关指数的模拟误差方面也有显著的效果,但对气温年际变率的订正效果有限。结合以往对降水订正的评估分析,该方法对模式模拟结果有较好的订正效果,可以应用于区域气候模式的气候变化模拟预估中,为气候变化及相关影响评估研究提供更适用和可靠的数据。 相似文献
9.
海洋环流对全球增暖趋势的调制：基于FGOALS-s2的数值模拟研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在工业革命以来全球长期增暖趋势背景下,全球平均表面气温还同时表现出年代际变化特征,二者叠加在一起使得全球平均气温在某些年份增暖相对停滞(如1999～2008年)或者增暖相对较快(如1980～1998年).利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的耦合气候模式FGOALS-s2历史气候和典型路径浓度(RCPs)模拟试验结果研究了可能造成全球增暖的年代际停滞及加速现象的原因,特别是海洋环流对全球变暖趋势的调制作用.该模式模拟的全球平均气温与观测类似,即在长期增暖趋势之上,还叠加了显著的年代际变化.对全球平均能量收支分析表明,模拟的气温年代际变化与大气顶净辐射通量无关,意味着年代际表面气温变化可能与能量在气候系统内部的重新分配有关.通过对全球增暖加速和停滞时期大气和海洋环流变化的合成分析及回归分析,发现全球表面气温与大部分海区海表温度(SST)均表现出几乎一致的变化特征.在增暖停滞时期,SST降低,更多热量进入海洋次表层和深层,使其温度增加;而在增暖加速时期,更多热量停留在表层,使得大部分海区SST显著增加,次表层海水和深海相对冷却.进一步分析表明,热带太平洋表层和次表层海温年代际变化主要是由于副热带—热带经圈环流(STC)的年代际变化所致,然后热带太平洋海温异常可以通过风应力和热通量强迫作用引起印度洋、大西洋海温的年代际变化.在此过程中,海洋环流变化起到了重要作用,例如印度尼西亚贯穿流(ITF)年代际异常对南印度洋次表层海温变化起到关键作用,而大西洋经圈翻转环流(AMOC)则能直接影响到北大西洋深层海温变化. 相似文献
10.
大连地区近44 a冬季气温的变化特征 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
利用大连地区1960-2004年的气温资料，应用一元线性回归、小波分析、气候趋势系数等方法，对大连地区气温的季节一年际变化特征进行了研究，着重分析了该地区冬季气温年际、年代际变化的时空特征。结果发现，大连四季都有增暖的变化趋势，其中春、冬两季增暖的速度最快；20世纪60年代大连地区的冬季气温呈下降趋势，从70年代以后，冬季气温呈明显的增暖趋势，特别是90年代以后这种增暖趋势十分显著，而且增暖的幅度全区分布不均匀；大连地区冬季气温与全国冬季气温年代际变化的步调基本一致。 相似文献
11.
Evaluating the projection capability of climate models is an important task in climate model development
and climate change studies. The projection capability of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) Climate System
Model BCC_CSM1.0 is analyzed in this study. We focus on evaluating the projected annual mean air
temperature and precipitation during the 21st century under three emission scenarios (Special Report on
Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B, and A2) of the BCC_CSM1.0 model, along with comparisons with
22 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Air temperature averaged
both globally and within China is projected to increase continuously throughout the 21st century, while
precipitation increases intermittently under each of the three emission scenarios, with some specific temporal
and spatial characteristics. The changes in globally-averaged and China-averaged air temperature and
precipitation simulated by the BCC_CSM1.0 model are within the range of CMIP3 model results. On
average, the changes of precipitation and temperature are more pronounced over China than over the globe,
which is also in agreement with the CMIP3 models. The projection capability of the BCC_CSM1.0 model is
comparable to that of other climate system models. Furthermore, the results reveal that the climate change
response to greenhouse gas emissions is stronger over China than in the global mean, which implies that
China may be particularly sensitive to climate change in the 21st century. 相似文献
12.
Projections of annual mean air temperature and precipitation over the globe and in China during the 21st century by the BCC Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0 
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下载免费PDF全文 Evaluating the projection capability of climate models is an important task in climate model development and climate change studies. The projection capability of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) Climate System Model BCC CSM1.0 is analyzed in this study. We focus on evaluating the projected annual mean air temperature and precipitation during the 21st century under three emission scenarios (Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B, and A2) of the BCC CSM1.0 model, along with comparisons with 22 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Air temperature averaged both globally and within China is projected to increase continuously throughout the 21st century, while precipitation increases intermittently under each of the three emission scenarios, with some specific temporal and spatial characteristics. The changes in globally-averaged and China-averaged air temperature and precipitation simulated by the BCC CSM1.0 model are within the range of CMIP3 model results. On average, the changes of precipitation and temperature are more pronounced over China than over the globe, which is also in agreement with the CMIP3 models. The projection capability of the BCC CSM1.0 model is comparable to that of other climate system models. Furthermore, the results reveal that the climate change response to greenhouse gas emissions is stronger over China than in the global mean, which implies that China may be particularly sensitive to climate change in the 21st century. 相似文献
13.
F. Kucharski A. A. Scaife J. H. Yoo C. K. Folland J. Kinter J. Knight D. Fereday A. M. Fischer E. K. Jin J. Kröger N.-C. Lau T. Nakaegawa M. J. Nath P. Pegion E. Rozanov S. Schubert P. V. Sporyshev J. Syktus A. Voldoire J. H. Yoon N. Zeng T. Zhou 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(5):615-627
The ability of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), that are forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs),
to simulate the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) variability on interannual to decadal timescales is analyzed in a multimodel
intercomparison. The multimodel ensemble has been performed within the CLIVAR International “Climate of the 20th Century”
(C20C) Project. This paper is part of a C20C intercomparison of key climate time series. Whereas on the interannual timescale
there is modest skill in reproducing the observed IMR variability, on decadal timescale the skill is much larger. It is shown
that the decadal IMR variability is largely forced, most likely by tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), but as well by
extratropical and especially Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) related SSTs. In particular there has been a decrease
from the late 1950s to the 1990s that corresponds to a general warming of tropical SSTs. Using a selection of control integrations
from the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3), it is shown that
the increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the twentieth century has not significantly contributed to the observed decadal
IMR variability. 相似文献
14.
An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 WU Tongwen SONG Lianchun LI Weiping WANG Zaizhi ZHANG Hu XIN Xiaoge ZHANG Yanwu ZHANG Li LI Jianglong WU Fanghu LIU Yiming ZHANG Fang SHI Xueli CHU Min ZHANG Jie FANG Yongjie WANG Fang LU Yixiong LIU Xiangwen WEI Min LIU Qianxi ZHOU Wenyan DONG Min ZHAO Qigeng JI Jinjun Laurent LI ZHOU Mingyu 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,28(1):34-56
This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales. 相似文献
15.
The amplitude and rhythm of temperature changes at inter-decadal and inter-centennial timescale were studied, based on the winter-half year temperature change series reconstructed from historical phenological events in eastern China for the past 2000 years, together with the temperature change simulation from ECHO-G model for the past 1000 years, and the quasi-periods of temperature fluctuation were discussed by using wavelet analysis. The results indicate: 1) the maximal amplitude of winter half-year temperature change in eastern China at decadal and centennial scale, was above 2℃ and 0.5-1.0℃ respectively. The reconstructed result indicates that the amplitude of warming during the 20th century was identical with the maximum amplitude before the 20th century in eastern China, but the simulated result suggests that the amplitude of warming has exceeded the maximum amplitude. 2) The rhythms of temperature change at centennial to millennial scale in eastern China were about 100-year, 250-year, 400-year, 600-year and 1000-year. The 20th century, the 1st-3rd century and the 9th-13th century were warm peaks at inter-centennial scale as well as at millennial scale. It is implicated that the warming during the 20th century should be attributed to not only anthropogenic effect, but also natural climate variation. 相似文献
16.
不同水平分辨率BCC_CSM模式对中亚地面气温模拟能力评估 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
本研究基于IPCC AR5(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:Fifth Assessment Report)中BCC_CSM1.1(Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1)和BCC_CSM1.1(m)(Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 with a Moderate Resolution)气候模式的历史试验结果和CRU(Climatic Research Unit)资料, 采用趋势分析和滑动平均等方法检验了两个版本BCC_CSM模式对中亚地区1948～2011年平均地表气温、各热通量及其趋势的模拟性能, 并讨论了不同模式水平分辨率的影响, 结果显示:BCC_CSM1.1和BCC_CSM1.1(m)两个模式均能够模拟出中亚地区显著增温以及感热通量、长/短波净辐射等要素由南向北递减的总体趋势。其中, BCC_CSM1.1(m) 在对中亚地面年平均气温、感热通量和长/短波净辐射空间分布的模拟结果好于BCC_CSM1.1, 但对于气温标准差的模拟, BCC-CSM1.1模式略好于BCC-CSM1.1(m)。模式分辨率的提高, 能够更好地表现出地形的影响, 对气温和各热通量模拟性能改善较大, 在中亚地区年平均气温的模拟中表现出了一定的优势。 相似文献
17.
Using the method of radiative ‘kernels’ an analysis is made of water vapour, lapse rate and ‘Planck’ (uniform vertical temperature) long wave feedbacks in models participating in the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Feedbacks are calculated at climate change timescales from the A1B scenario, and at three ‘variability’ timescales from the corresponding preindustrial experiments: seasonal, interannual and decadal. Surface temperature responses show different meridional patterns for the different timescales, which are then manifest in the structures of the individual feedbacks. Despite these differences, mean water vapour feedback strength in models is positive for all models and timescales, and of comparable global magnitude across all timescales except for seasonal, where it is much weaker. Taking into consideration the strong positive lapse rate feedback at seasonal timescales, combined water vapour/lapse rate feedback is indeed similar across all timescales. To a good approximation, global water vapour feedback is found to be well represented by the temperature response along with an assumption of unchanged relative humidity under both variability and climate change. A comparison is also made of model feedbacks with reanalysis derived feedbacks for seasonal and interannual timescales. No strong relationships between individual modelled feedbacks at different timescales are evident: i.e., strong feedbacks in models at variability timescales do not in general predict strong climate change feedback, with the possible exception of seasonal timescales. There are caveats on this (and other) findings however, from uncertainties associated with the kernel technique and from, at times, very large uncertainties in estimating variability related feedbacks from temperature regressions. 相似文献