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1.
The atmospheric vertical structure and changed characteristics of boundary layer parameters, as well as their relations with sea ice and temperature changes in the center of Arctic Ocean(80°–88°N) are presented by adopting GPS sounding data obtained by the 4th–6th Arctic expeditions of China and NCEP(National Centre for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data. Obvious differences are observed regarding the tropopause, boundary layer height, temperature inversion, and vertical structure of wind speed and direction in the center Arctic Ocean in the summer of 2012, 2010, and 2014. These differences can be explained by the relations between temperature and changes in sea ice extent in September from 1979 to 2014. In September 2012, the Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 44% an with obvious warming process. In September 2010 and 2014, it decreased by 22.6% and 17% with an obvious cooling process, respectively. A comparison of the two processes shows that sea ice change has a significant influence on the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer. In the recent 30 years, the temperature changes of 1000 and 850 h Pa in the center of the Arctic Ocean have displayed an obvious warming trend and negative correlation with sea ice extent. These changes indicate that the continuous reduction of Arctic sea ice will continue the warming of the troposphere middle layer.  相似文献   

2.
Climate models are increasingly being used to force dynamical wind wave models in order to assess the potential climate change-driven variations in wave climate. In this study, an ensemble of wave model simulations have been used to assess the ability of climate model winds to reproduce the present-day (1981–2000) mean wave climate and its seasonal variability for the southeast coast of Australia. Surface wind forcing was obtained from three dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3) global climate model (GCM) simulations (CSIRO Mk3.5, GFDLcm2.0 and GFDLcm2.1). The downscaling was performed using CSIRO’s cubic conformal atmospheric model (CCAM) over the Australian region at approximately 60-km resolution. The wind climates derived from the CCAM downscaled GCMs were assessed against observations (QuikSCAT and NCEP Re-analysis 2 (NRA-2) reanalyses) over the 1981–2000 period and were found to exhibit both bias in mean wind conditions (climate bias) as well as bias in the variance of wind conditions (variability bias). Comparison of the modelled wave climate with over 20 years of wave data from six wave buoys in the study area indicates that direct forcing of the wave models with uncorrected CCAM winds result in suboptimal wave hindcast. CCAM winds were subsequently adjusted for climate and variability bias using a bivariate quantile adjustment which corrects both directional wind components to align in distribution to the NRA-2 winds. Forcing of the wave models with bias-adjusted winds leads to a significant improvement of the hindcast mean annual wave climate and its seasonal variability. However, bias adjustment of the CCAM winds does not improve the ability of the model to reproduce the storm wave climate. This is likely due to a combination of storm systems tracking too quickly through the wave generation zone and the performance of the NRA-2 winds used as a benchmark in this study.  相似文献   

3.
为研究近期21年(1989—2009年)北极地区海冰变化原因,本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim数据集资料和美国麻省理工学院MITgcm全球海冰-海洋耦合模式开展了不同大气强迫条件下海冰变化的数值模拟研究.研究工作中共设计了6个数值试验,除1个试验全部采用1989—2009年每日4个时次的大气强迫场外,其余5个试验各有一种大气强迫(地表气温、地表大气比湿、向下短波辐射通量、向下长波辐射通量和地表风)采用1989年月平均结果.分析了各模拟试验结果中3月和9月北极地区海冰面积的年际变化特征及最小二乘拟合意义下的线性变化趋势,并以ERA-Interim结果为参照标准对各模拟试验结果进行了对比和检验,以说明不同大气强迫量变率对海冰变化的作用.结果表明:地表气温变率和向下长波辐射通量变率是造成海冰面积减少的主要原因;向下短波辐射通量变率对海冰面积变化影响几乎可以忽略;地表大气比湿变率对海冰面积线性变化趋势影响较小,但对海冰面积年际变化特征有调制作用;地表风变率对海冰季节变化、海冰面积线性变化趋势及年际变化特征均有明显影响,说明提高大气风应力精度是改善海冰数值模拟结果的重要手段.  相似文献   

4.
The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is a complex area formed by narrow straits and islands in the Arctic. It is an important pathway for freshwater and sea-ice transport from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The narrow straits are often crudely represented in coupled sea-ice–ocean models, leading to a misrepresentation of transports through these straits. Unstructured meshes are an alternative in modelling this complex region, since they are able to capture the complex geometry of the CAA. This provides higher resolution in the flow field and allows for more accurate transports (but not necessarily better modelling). In this paper, a finite element sea-ice model of the Arctic region is described and used to estimate the sea-ice fluxes through the CAA. The model is a dynamic–thermodynamic sea-ice model with elastic–viscous–plastic rheology and is coupled to a slab ocean, where the temperature and salinity are restored to climatology, with no velocities and surface elevation. The model is spun-up from 1973 to 1978 with NCEP/NARR reanalysis data. From 1979 to 2007, the model is forced by NCEP/DoE reanalysis data. The large scale sea-ice characteristics show good agreement with observations. The total sea-ice area agrees very well with observations and shows a sensitivity to the Arctic oscillation (AO). For 1998–2002, we find estimates for the sea-ice volume and area fluxes through Admunsen Gulf, McClure Strait and the Queen Elizabeth Islands that compare well with observation and are slightly better than estimates from other models. For Nares Strait, we find that the fluxes are much lower than observed, due to the missing effect of topographic steering on the atmospheric forcing fields. The 1979–2007 fluxes show large seasonal and interannual variability driven primarily by variability in the ice velocity field and a sensitivity to the AO and other large-scale atmospheric variability, which suggests that accurate atmospheric forcing might be crucial to modelling the CAA.  相似文献   

5.
Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  
The areal extent, concentration and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas have strongly decreased during the recent decades, but cold, snow-rich winters have been common over mid-latitude land areas since 2005. A review is presented on studies addressing the local and remote effects of the sea ice decline on weather and climate. It is evident that the reduction in sea ice cover has increased the heat flux from the ocean to atmosphere in autumn and early winter. This has locally increased air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover and reduced the static stability in the lower troposphere. Several studies based on observations, atmospheric reanalyses, and model experiments suggest that the sea ice decline, together with increased snow cover in Eurasia, favours circulation patterns resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. The suggested large-scale pressure patterns include a high over Eurasia, which favours cold winters in Europe and northeastern Eurasia. A high over the western and a low over the eastern North America have also been suggested, favouring advection of Arctic air masses to North America. Mid-latitude winter weather is, however, affected by several other factors, which generate a large inter-annual variability and often mask the effects of sea ice decline. In addition, the small sample of years with a large sea ice loss makes it difficult to distinguish the effects directly attributable to sea ice conditions. Several studies suggest that, with advancing global warming, cold winters in mid-latitude continents will no longer be common during the second half of the twenty-first century. Recent studies have also suggested causal links between the sea ice decline and summer precipitation in Europe, the Mediterranean, and East Asia.  相似文献   

6.
Sea ice, as an important component of the Arctic climate system, has drawn significant sci-entific interest. Sea ice thickness and its morphology have dramatic impacts on ocean-atmos- phere-ice interactions[1—4], which directly affect the exchange proces…  相似文献   

7.
The spatial resolution of wind forcing fields is critical for modeling ocean surface waves. We analyze here the performance of the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction system WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting) run with a 14-km resolution for hindcasting wind waves in the North Atlantic. The regional atmospheric model was run in the domain from 20° N to 70° N in the North Atlantic and was forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions in a spectral nudging mode. Here, we present the analysis of the impact of spectral nudging formulation (cutoff wavelengths and depth through which full weighting from reanalysis data is applied) onto the performance of the modeled 10-m wind speed and wind wave fields for 1 year (2010). For modeling waves, we use the third-generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III. The sensitivity of the atmospheric and wave models to the spectral nudging formulation is investigated via the comparison with reanalysis and observational data. The results reveal strong and persistent agreement with reanalysis data during all seasons within the year with well-simulated annual cycle and regional patterns independently of the nudging parameters that were tested. Thus, the proposed formulation of the nudging provides a reliable framework for future long-term experiments aiming at hindcasting climate variability in the North Atlantic wave field. At the same time, dynamical downscaling allows for simulation of higher waves in coastal regions, specifically near the Greenland east coast likely due to a better representation of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamics in this area.  相似文献   

8.
One of the main challenges of the Copernicus Marine Service is the implementation of coupled ocean/waves systems that accurately estimate the momentum and energy fluxes provided by the atmosphere to the ocean. This study aims to investigate the impact of forcing the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with forecasts from the wave model of Météo-France (MFWAM) to improve classical air-sea flux parametrizations, these latter being mostly driven by the 10-m wind. Three wave-related processes, namely, wave-state-dependent stress, Stokes drift-related effects (Stokes-Coriolis force, Stokes drift advection on tracers and on mass), and wave-state-dependent surface turbulence, are examined at a global scale with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°. Three years of sensitivity simulations (2014–2016) show positive feedback on sea surface temperature (SST) and currents when the wave model is used. A significant reduction in SST bias is observed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This is mainly due to the more realistic momentum flux provided by the wave model. In mid-latitudes, the most interesting impact occurs during the summer stratification, when the wind is low and the wave model produces a reduction in the turbulence linked with wave breaking. Magnitudes of the large-scale currents in the equatorial region are also improved by 10% compared to observations. In general, it is shown that using the wave model reduces on average the momentum and energy fluxes to the ocean in tropical regions, but increases them in mid-latitudes. These differences are in the order of 10 to 20% compared with the classical parametrizations found in stand-alone ocean models.  相似文献   

9.
The SEMAPHORE (Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphère, Propriétés des Hétérogénéités Océaniques: Recherche Expérimentale) experiment has been conducted from June to November 1993 in the Northeast Atlantic between the Azores and Madeira. It was centered on the study of the mesoscale ocean circulation and air-sea interactions. The experimental investigation was achieved at the mesoscale using moorings, floats, and ship hydrological survey, and at a smaller scale by one dedicated ship, two instrumented aircraft, and surface drifting buoys, for one and a half month in October-November (IOP: intense observing period). Observations from meteorological operational satellites as well as spaceborne microwave sensors were used in complement. The main studies undertaken concern the mesoscale ocean, the upper ocean, the atmospheric boundary layer, and the sea surface, and first results are presented for the various topics. From data analysis and model simulations, the main characteristics of the ocean circulation were deduced, showing the close relationship between the Azores front meander and the occurrence of Mediterranean water lenses (meddies), and the shift between the Azores current frontal signature at the surface and within the thermocline. Using drifting buoys and ship data in the upper ocean, the gap between the scales of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic variability was made evident. A 2 °C decrease and a 40-m deepening of the mixed layer were measured within the IOP, associated with a heating loss of about 100 W m−2. This evolution was shown to be strongly connected to the occurrence of storms at the beginning and the end of October. Above the surface, turbulent measurements from ship and aircraft were analyzed across the surface thermal front, showing a 30% difference in heat fluxes between both sides during a 4-day period, and the respective contributions of the wind and the surface temperature were evaluated. The classical momentum flux bulk parameterization was found to fail in low wind and unstable conditions. Finally, the sea surface was investigated using airborne and satellite radars and wave buoys. A wave model, operationally used, was found to get better results compared with radar and wave-buoy measurements, when initialized using an improved wind field, obtained by assimilating satellite and buoy wind data in a meteorological model. A detailed analysis of a 2-day period showed that the swell component, propagating from a far source area, is underestimated in the wave model. A data base has been created, containing all experimental measurements. It will allow us to pursue the interpretation of observations and to test model simulations in the ocean, at the surface and in the atmospheric boundary layer, and to investigate the ocean-atmosphere coupling at the local and mesoscales.  相似文献   

10.
The impact of the gustiness on surface waves under storm conditions is investigated with focus on the appearance of wave groups with extreme high amplitude and wavelength in the North Sea. During many storms characterized by extremely high individual waves measured near the German coast, especially in cold air outbreaks, the moving atmospheric open cells are observed by optical and radar satellites. According to measurements, the footprint of the cell produces a local increase in the wind field at sea surface, moving as a consistent system with a propagation speed near to swell wave-traveling speed. The optical and microwave satellite data are used to connect mesoscale atmospheric turbulences and the extreme waves measured. The parameters of open cells observed are used for numerical spectral wave modeling. The North Sea with horizontal resolution of 2.5?km and with focus on the German Bight was simulated. The wind field “storm in storm,” including moving organized mesoscale eddies with increased wind speed, was generated. To take into account the rapid moving gust structure, the input wind field was updated each 5?min. The test cases idealized with one, two, and four open individual cells and, respectively, with groups of open cells, with and without preexisting sea state, as well the real storm conditions, are simulated. The model results confirm that an individual-moving open cell can cause the local significant wave height increase in order of meters within the cell area and especially in a narrow area of 1–2?km at the footprint center of a cell (the cell's diameter is 40–90?km). In a case of a traveling individual open cell with 15?m·s?1 over a sea surface with a preexisting wind sea of and swell, a local significant wave height increase of 3.5?m is produced. A group of cells for a real storm condition produces a local increase of significant wave height of more than 6?m during a short time window of 10–20?min (cell passing). The sea surface simulation from modeled wave spectra points out the appearance of wave groups including extreme individual waves with a period of about 25?s and a wavelength of more than 350?m under the cell's footprint. This corresponds well with measurement of a rogue wave group with length of about 400?m and a period of near 25?s. This has been registered at FiNO-1 research platform in the North Sea during Britta storm on November 1, 2006 at 04:00 UTC. The results can explain the appearance of rogue waves in the German Bight and can be used for ship safety and coastal protection. Presently, the considered mesoscale gustiness cannot be incorporated in present operational wave forecasting systems, since it needs an update of the wind field at spatial and temporal scales, which is still not available for such applications. However, the scenario simulations for cell structures with appropriate travel speed, observed by optical and radar satellites, can be done and applied for warning messages.  相似文献   

11.
Sea ice has been reported to contain contaminants from atmospheric and nearshore sediment resuspension processes. In this study successive passive microwave images from the 85.5 GHz channels on the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) were merged with drifting buoy trajectories from the International Arctic Buoy Program to compute Arctic sea ice motion in the Russian Arctic between 1988 and 1994. Smooth daily motion fields were averaged to prepare monthly maps making it possible to compute the 7-year mean and mean seasonal ice motions as well as principal components of directional variability of sea ice motion for the entire Arctic and surrounding basins. These mean motion vectors are used to simulate the advection of contaminants deposited on or contained within the sea ice and subsequently transported into the Arctic Ocean in order to predict both their mean trajectories and dispersal over time. The 3-year displacement of contaminants from a number of Russian sites and one American site display various behaviours from substantial displacement and dispersal to almost no movement. This computational procedure could be applied to realtime SSM/I and ice buoy data to provide detailed, all-weather, vector motion maps of ice circulation to predict the path and dispersal of any new substance introduced to the sea ice and transported into the Arctic or Antarctic ocean surface.  相似文献   

12.
The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state-dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water-level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state-dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25–27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5–7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20–30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water-level and current predictions.  相似文献   

13.
The Marine and Atmospheric Research System (MARS) for the Caspian Sea meteorological characteristics is presented, which is implemented in Zubov State Oceanographic Institute. It includes computation of the atmospheric forcing with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, as well as computation of currents, sea level, temperature, salinity and sea ice with the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model and the computation of wind wave parameters using the Russian wind-wave model. The results are presented on verification of the hydrometeocharacteristics simulated with the MARS for the Caspian Sea. As well, the retrospective simulation of the thermohydrodynamic characteristics in this basin is performed with MARS for the ice-free period 2003–2013. The important features of the Caspian Sea circulation are shown.  相似文献   

14.
A two-dimensional barotropic, coupled, ocean-ice model with a space resolution of 55.5 km and driven by atmospheric forces, river run-off, and sea-level slope between the Pacific and the Arctic Oceans, has been used to simulate the vertically averaged currents and ice drift in the Arctic Ocean. Results from 43 years of numerical simulations of water and ice motions demonstrate that two wind-driven circulation regimes are possible in the Arctic, a cyclonic and an anti-cyclonic circulation. These two regimes appear to alternate at 5-7 year intervals with the 10-15 year period. It is important to pollution studies to understand which circulation regime prevails at any time. It is anticipated that 1995 is a year with a cyclonic regime, and during this cyclonic phase and possibly during past cyclonic regimes as well, pollutants may reach the Alaskan shelf. The regime shifts demonstrated in this paper are fundamentally important to understanding the Arctic's general circulation and particularly important for estimating pollution transport.  相似文献   

15.
The development of ocean waves under explosive cyclones (ECs) is investigated in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean using a hindcast wave simulation around Japan during the period 1994 through 2014. A composite analysis of the ocean wave fields under ECs is used to investigate how the spatial patterns of the spectral wave parameters develop over time. Using dual criteria of a drop in sea level pressure below 980 hPa at the center of a cyclone and a decrease of at least 12 hPa over a 12-h period, ECs are identified in atmospheric reanalysis data. Two areas under an EC were identified with narrow directional spectra: the cold side of a warm front and the right-hand side of an EC (relative to the propagating direction). Because ECs are associated with atmospheric fronts, ocean waves develop very differently under ECs than they do under tropical cyclones. Moreover, ECs evolve very rapidly such that the development of the ocean wave field lags behind the peak wind speed by hours. In a case study of an EC that occurred in January 2013, the wave spectrum indicates that a warm front played a critical role in generating distinct ocean wave systems in the warm and cold zones along the warm front. Both the warm and cold zones have narrow directional and frequency spectra. In contrast, the ocean wave field in the third quadrant (rear left area relative to the propagation direction) of the EC is composed of swell and wind sea systems propagating in different directions.  相似文献   

16.
GCM-based forecast simulations predict continuously increasing seasonality of the sea ice cover and an almost ice-free, summer-time, Arctic Ocean within several decades from the present. In this study we use a primitive equation ocean model: NEMO, coupled with the sea ice model LIM2, to test the hypothesis that under such an increased range in seasonal ice cover the intensity of shelf-basin water exchange will significantly increase. We use the simulated results for the Laptev Sea from a global model run 1958–2007 and compare results for two years with anomalously high and low summer sea ice extents: 1986–1987 and 2006–2007. The shelf–basin fluxes of volume, heat and salt during specific seasons are evaluated and attributed to plausible driving processes, with particular attention to dense water cascading. Analyses of the model temperature distribution at the depth of the intermediate maximum, associated with Atlantic Water, have shown a marked increase of the amount of the local origin cold water in late winter 2007 in the region, where dense water typically appears as a result of its formation on the shelf and subsequent downslope leakage. Calculation of the shelf-basin exchange during March-May in both years confirmed a substantial increase (a factor of two) of fluxes in “ice-free” 2007 compared to the “icy” 1987. According to several past model studies, dense water production on Arctic shelves in winter driven by ice freezing and brine rejection is not likely to cease in a warmer climate, but rather to increase. There is also observational evidence that cascading in the seasonally ice covered seas (e.g. the Barents Sea) is much more efficient than it is in the permanently ice covered Arctic Ocean, which supports these model results.  相似文献   

17.
A comparison of the oxygen isotope signal in deep-sea benthic foraminifera with the record of glacio-eustatic sea level for the last 160,000 years reveals that the amplitude of the benthic δ18O records predicts more continental ice volume than appears to be reflected in lowered sea level stands. These differences between the benthic δ18O ice volume estimates and radiometrically-dated records of eustatic sea level are consistent with the presence of a large floating Arctic Ocean ice mass during glacial intervals. The presence of an Arctic Ocean ice sheet during glacial intervals may account for the two climatic modes observed in oxygen isotope records which span the entire Pleistocene. The early Pleistocene (1.8 to 0.9 Myr B.P.) interval is characterized by low-amplitude, high-frequency δ18O fluctuations between glacial and interglacial periods, while the late Pleistocene (0.9 Myr B.P. to present) is characterized by large-amplitude, low-frequency δ18O changes. These two climatic modes can be explained by the initiation of earth orbital conditions favoring the co-occurrence of glacial period Arctic Ocean ice sheets and large continental ice sheets approximately 900,000 years before present.  相似文献   

18.
The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and shows significant sensitivity to anthropogenic climate forcing and the ongoing climate change. Accelerated changes in the Arctic are already observed, including elevated air and ocean temperatures, declines of the summer sea ice extent and sea ice thickness influencing the albedo and CO2 exchange, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and increased thawing of surrounding permafrost regions. In turn, the hydrological cycle in the high latitude and Arctic is expected to undergo changes although to date it is challenging to accurately quantify this. Moreover, changes in the temperature and salinity of surface waters in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas may also influence the flow of dense water through the Denmark Strait, which are found to be a precursor for changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with a lead time of around 10 years (Hawkins and Sutton in Geophys Res Lett 35:L11603, 2008). Evidently changes in the Arctic and surrounding seas have far reaching influences on regional and global environment and climate variability, thus emphasizing the need for advanced quantitative understanding of the ocean circulation and transport variability in the high latitude and Arctic Ocean. In this respect, this study combines in situ hydrographical data, surface drifter data and direct current meter measurements, with coupled sea ice–ocean models, radar altimeter data and the latest GOCE-based geoid in order to estimate and assess the quality, usefulness and validity of the new GOCE-derived mean dynamic topography for studies of the ocean circulation and transport estimates in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean.  相似文献   

19.
Barotropic responses of the East China Sea to typhoon KOMPASU are investigated using a high-resolution, three-dimensional, primitive equation, and finite volume coastal ocean model. Even the fact that the typhoon KOMPASU only brushed across the brink of China mainland without landing, it still imposed great influence across China's east coastal area, where storm surges ranging from 35 to 70 cm were intrigued during this event and a large wake of water setdown due to the outward radial transport driven by the cyclonic wind stress was generated after the KOMPASU traveled across the Yellow Sea. Analysis of the numerical results reveals that the barotropic waves propagating along the coast after the typhoon's landing can be identified as Kelvin wave and the currents associated with the storm are geostrophic currents. A series of model runs are initiated to diagnose the effects of wind stress, atmospheric pressure, and storm track variation on the surge's spatial distribution in the East China Sea. The barotropic waves affected by the atmospheric disturbance due to the typhoon in deep Pacific Ocean travel far more rapidly, arriving at the coastal regions at least 60 h ahead of the typhoon. The wave amplitudes are merely 0.2–0.4 cm and damp gradually due to friction. The model experiments also confirm that the surge levels in nearshore regions are highly dominated by winds, whereas the water level variations in deeper areas are controlled by the atmospheric pressure forcing during typhoon events in the East China Sea.  相似文献   

20.
It is a common fact that the majority of today's wave assimilation platforms have a limited, in time, ability of affecting the final wave prediction, especially that of long-period forecasting systems. This is mainly due to the fact that after “closing” the assimilation window, i.e., the time that the available observations are assimilated into the wave model, the latter continues to run without any external information. Therefore, if a systematic divergence from the observations occurs, only a limited portion of the forecasting period will be improved. A way of dealing with this drawback is proposed in this study: A combination of two different statistical tools—Kolmogorov–Zurbenko and Kalman filters—is employed so as to eliminate any systematic error of (a first run of) the wave model results. Then, the obtained forecasts are used as artificial observations that can be assimilated to a follow-up model simulation inside the forecasting period. The method was successfully applied to an open sea area (Pacific Ocean) for significant wave height forecasts using the wave model WAM and six different buoys as observational stations. The results were encouraging and led to the extension of the assimilation impact to the entire forecasting period as well as to a significant reduction of the forecast bias.  相似文献   

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