共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
K. Pediaditi M. Stanojevic C. Kouskouna M. Karydas D. Zianis George P. Petropoulos N. Boretos 《Earth Science Informatics》2011,4(3):107-115
Risk assessment and management, are increasingly established as key procedures in dealing with the range of environmental
issues at different scales and of different nature. Although at the EU and international policy level requirements for the
use of risk assessment and management are being established through emerging policy and legislation, this demand has not been
followed with common guidance on how to do so. This has proven to hinder the effective adoption of such processes, and posed
a barrier more so in its implementation for large transboundary issues. In this paper is presented a Decision Support System
(DSS) designed to provide a common framework and procedure for environmental risk assessment and management. The DSS is web-based
and was developed to enable the formalized and more systematic utilization of risk assessment and management procedures in
environmental decision making processes, in particular for users such as public authority officials charged with the responsibility
of implementing risk management legal and policy obligations, yet which have limited know how in the field of risk. The DSS
presented herein enables environmental administrators and decision makers to undertake generic risk assessment and management
identifying areas where detailed risk assessment is required, proposing as well as appropriate risk management options. The
web DSS was developed and piloted as part of the STRiM project funded by the European Union. Herein are shown results from
the web application which has been trailed successfully in four pilot trials addressing risks of forest damage from storms,
water pollution from olive mill waste discharges, wetland loss from water abstraction, and damage from flooding. 相似文献
2.
Osipov V. I. Larionov V. I. Burova V. N. Frolova N. I. Sushchev S. P. 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(1):17-41
The Russian Federation territory is prone to various natural hazards. The paper analyzes the most hazardous natural processes that may cause human deaths, injuries and health damage, as well as considerable economic loss. The history of studies in the assessment of different natural risk indices in the interests of particular end-users is described, and the conceptual instruments used in the assessment of natural risk indices are considered. The principle GIS-based methodical approaches to the assessment and mapping of natural risk are provided. The examples of estimation and mapping of natural risk are cited and their application by different end-users (i.e., state and municipal authorities, Ministry of Construction of Russia, Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (Emercom of Russia)). 相似文献
3.
The proposed flood mitigation measures in the Slovak Republic are subject of environmental impact assessment (EIA) process before its approval. The paper elaborates and demonstrates the application of the risk analysis method for evaluating alternatives, which is core in EIA. Risk analysis is an appropriate tool to determine the level of the risk of the proposed flood mitigation measures and through which it is possible to choose the alternative with the lowest level of risk for the environment. The article presents the application of the developed methodology based on universal matrix of risk analysis in ?iba village that is in existing flood risk. It analyses and discusses the results of the impact assessment from EIA practice in the Slovakia. The aim of the work is to improve existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts of proposed activities on the environment. Developed methodology stimulates creative approaches in searching of the best alternative to proposed activities (constructions) that are environmentally friendly. Innovation in this paper is presented by an implementation of universal matrix of risk analysis for flood mitigation measures (developed by the authors) for the purposes of EIA process. 相似文献
4.
Kasım Armağan Korkmaz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,61(3):467-476
A significant proportion of the urban areas in Turkey is subject to high seismic risk. An important step for seismic risk
mitigation is to define the hazard and damage after an earthquake. This paper proposes an integrated seismic hazard assessment
and disaster management processes for Turkey. The proposed methodology utilizes information technologies in its seismic assessment
component that provides fast results for assessment. First, image process methodology by using satellite images was implemented
in the seismic assessment process for fast evaluation right after an earthquake. Second, the seismic assessment process was
integrated with disaster management process. As a result, through integrated seismic hazard evaluation and disaster management
procedure, an effective, fast and dependable estimation of loss for Turkey was planned. 相似文献
5.
The problem of dam safety is one of the most important research topics of water conservancy projects, and many researchers pay much attention to study the risk of earth dam overtopping. This paper synthesizes in the definition of risk the probabilities of dam failure and the corresponding losses, including the probability estimation, losses evaluation and criteria exploring risk approaches. Then, a comprehensive risk assessment system of dam flood overtopping is established, which is widely applicable. Gate failure, randomness of flood, initial water level and time-varying effects are incorporated in the failure probability model. Many complex factors are simplified in losses estimation. In addition, thresholds of various types of losses are proposed and are adapted to the national conditions. The methodology is applied to the Lianghekou hydropower station in China to illustrate the assessment process of flood overtopping risk and to evaluate its safe loophole with a view to the failure of spillway gates. Monte Carlo simulation and JC method programs are adopted to solve the model based on MATLAB tools and DELPHI. The results show that the losses pose significant impact on the risk assessment and should be considered in the assessment of risk. Probability calculation and loss estimation could be well combined with standards, providing a basis for risk management and decision-making. 相似文献
6.
Summary A quantitative procedure for hazard and risk assessment of large landslides that can develop as rock avalanches is discussed
in this paper. Reference is made to the IMIRILAND project, where a multidisciplinary methodology has been developed paying
particular attention to the landslide modeling process that leads to the quantification of the hazard, i.e. the prediction
of the occurrence probability, the involved area and the run-out velocity. The risk assessment methodology is exemplified
in the paper with reference to two cases: the Ceppo Morelli and Rosone landslides, both of which are located in the Italian
Western Alps. The results of these applications show that, despite the development of sophisticated 3D numerical methods,
many uncertainties still remain in the process of modeling large and complex landslides, related in particular to the definition
of the probability of failure and the rheological parameters to be used for the prediction of rock mass behavior. However
geo-mechanical models are found to be very valuable tools to verify, from a mechanical point of view, the assumptions introduced
through the geo-structural and geo-morphological analyses concerning the volume and the kinematics of the unstable mass, and
their role is fundamental for the determination of the involved area when mechanical parameters can be assumed with sufficient
reliability.
Author’s address: Marta Castelli, Politecnico di Torino – Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale e Geotecnica, Corso Duca
degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy 相似文献
7.
Landslides are studied systematically in order to evaluate the nature of hazard and the damages to the human life, land, roads, buildings and other properties. This can be expressed in terms of risk, which is a function of hazard probability and damage potential. A risk map will indicate the priorities for landslide hazard management. A new approach to risk assessment mapping using a risk assessment matrix (RAM) is presented. 相似文献
8.
区域地质灾害发生机理复杂,国内外主要的评价思路是建立以方法本身为基础的评价模型,这种评价思路会引起与区域地质灾害危险性自身的“不兼容”性,可以通过合理利用不同方法进行组合的评价模式来减小这种“不兼容”性.通过分析现有评价方法的适宜性,针对其不同的优缺点,提出了利用不同区域地质灾害评价方法进行组合评价应当遵循的基本原则,包括扬长避短原则、互扬互抑原则、提高资料的利用率原则、提高评价结果的精度原则.以青川县滑坡危险性评价为例,对这些原则的具体应用进行了分析,结果表明,利用模糊综合评判分别与AHP法和信息熵进行组合评价,其结果的精度要高于单独模糊综合评判法,但由于历史监测数据不充分,使得利用专家知识和经验的模糊综合评判与AHP的组合评价法的精度要高于基本监测数据的模糊综合评判和信息熵的组合评价法. 相似文献
9.
Shabana Khan 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1587-1607
An understanding of vulnerability is not only crucial for the survival of the exposed communities to extreme events, but also for their adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability affects community participation in hazard mitigation, influences emergency response and governs adaptive capacity for the changing environmental and hazards characteristics. However, despite increased awareness, assessments and understanding of the processes that produce vulnerability, disaster risks prevail. This raises questions on the effectiveness of vulnerability assessments and their applications for hazard mitigation and adaptation. The literature includes a range of vulnerability assessment methods, wherein frequently the selection of any particular method is governed by the research objectives. On the other hand, hazard mitigation plans and policies even though mention vulnerability, their implementation pays less attention to the variations in its nature and underlying causes. This paper explores possible reasons for such gaps by exploring a case study of the Hutt Valley, New Zealand. It brings out the limitations of different vulnerability assessment methods in representing the local vulnerability and challenges they bring in planning for the vulnerability reduction. It argues that vulnerability assessment based on any particular method, such as deprivation index, principle component analysis, composite vulnerability index with or without weight, may not reveal the actual vulnerability of a place, and therefore, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment is needed. 相似文献
10.
地质灾害风险评估技术指南初论 总被引：17，自引：2，他引：15
为了分析阐明突发地质灾害风险评估领域的一些热点问题,在概要地分析地质灾害风险评估技术指南编写的目的、基本原则和结构层次、核心内容的基础上,重点探索了地质灾害易发程度、危险性和风险评估的工作流程。初步提出地质灾害风险评估应该遵循的6条基本原则、结构层次及核心内容;初步提出定性分析－定量化评价相结合的地质灾害风险评估技术方法,提倡实用性技术方法和GIS技术的推广应用;初步提出地质灾害易发性、危险性和风险评估区划的基本工作流程。最后,简要地讨论了地质灾害风险评估的一些主要难点和易于混淆的问题,为地质灾害风险评估技术指南的编制和修改完善提供参考依据。 相似文献
11.
This paper is a contribution to an important aspect of the systematic and quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. The focus is on site-specific and detailed assessment for rainfall-triggered landslides and, in particular, on the estimation and interpretation of the temporal probability of landsliding. Historical rainfall data over a 109-year period were analysed with particular reference to a site along the Unanderra and Moss Vale Railway Line in the State of New South Wales, Australia. It is shown that the recurrence interval of landsliding and hence annual probability of occurrence is subject to significant uncertainty and that it cannot be regarded as a constant. Accordingly landslide hazard varies spatially as well as being a function of time. For the example case study considered in this paper the annual probability of landslide occurrence was estimated to be in the range 0.026–0.172. However, the mean annual probability of landslide reactivation was estimated to be in the range 0.037–0.078. Utilisation of methods for probability assessment proposed in this paper will contribute to more realistic assessment of hazard and risk and, therefore, to more efficient risk management. 相似文献
12.
隧道地质条件复杂,岩爆灾害频发,造成严重经济损失及人员伤亡,为工程施工带来极大困难。为分析隧道施工期岩爆风险和为施工安全提供依据,以属性数学理论为基础,建立了8参数岩爆危险性属性评价模型。通过对隧道岩爆案例的系统整理与分析,总结岩爆主要影响因素,考虑隧道施工现场指标获取的难易程度,改进了岩爆传统评价指标,选取了围岩岩性、岩体强度、围岩完整性、地应力大小、地下水状况、隧道埋深、隧道断面大小及现场施工情况8个易于获取的指标,然后构建了岩爆危险性评价的属性识别模型;同时考虑主观因素和客观因素,采用层次分析法（AHP）和概率统计法结合的综合赋权法对各指标因素进行权重分析;将建立的岩爆危险性属性识别模型应用于雅康高速公路二郎山隧道,结果表明:评价结果与实际开挖结果总体吻合较好,验证了该方法在岩爆危险性评价中的可行性与合理性。该研究成果为隧道施工岩爆灾害危险性评价提供了一种有效的途径,对预防隧道岩爆灾害发生、减少施工损失具有重大的意义。 相似文献
13.
Quantitative Risk Assessment of Catastrophic Debris Flows through Numerical Simulation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The risk assessment is not only the one of the most effective soft measures in natural hazard prevention, but also is the base of hazard risk management. On account of the specificity of various elements at risk and debris flow mechanism, the theoretical system and technical procedure of debris flow quantitative risk assessment for buildings and roads were established in the mountaineous area of Southwest China, which included three sections: ①To represent debris flow hazard quantitatively using the intensity index IDF through FLO-2D simulation; ②To build debris flow physical vulnerability curve based on the loss exceedance-probability from Qipan gully debris flow case; ③To quantify the expected loss of the important elements at risk based on their database after setting the future debris flow scenarios. The case study of Yangling catchment indicated that the responding mechanism between elements at risk and debris flow physical mechanism was described quantitatively by this quantitative risk assessment system, which can contribute to the construction planning and prevention measure making in the southwestern mountainous area. 相似文献
14.
Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview 总被引：29，自引：0，他引：29
Landslides can result in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions. In order to mitigate landslide hazard effectively, new methodologies are required to develop a better understanding of landslide hazard and to make rational decisions on the allocation of funds for management of landslide risk. Recent advances in risk analysis and risk assessment are beginning to provide systematic and rigorous processes to enhance slope management. In recent years, risk analysis and assessment has become an important tool in addressing uncertainty inherent in landslide hazards.This article reviews recent advances in landslide risk assessment and management, and discusses the applicability of a variety of approaches to assessing landslide risk. Firstly, a framework for landslide risk assessment and management by which landslide risk can be reduced is proposed. This is followed by a critical review of the current state of research on assessing the probability of landsliding, runout behavior, and vulnerability. Effective management strategies for reducing economic and social losses due to landslides are described. Problems in landslide risk assessment and management are also examined. 相似文献
15.
Francesco Calvetti Claudio Giulio di Prisco Emmanouil Vairaktaris 《Acta Geotechnica》2017,12(1):129-144
In the design of sheltering structures/embankments for the mitigation of the risk due to rapid and long spreading landslides, a crucial role is generally played by the assessment of the impact force exerted by the flowing mass on the artificial obstacle. This paper is focused on this issue and in particular on the evaluation of the maximum impact force on the basis of the results obtained by performing an extensive numerical campaign by means of a 3D discrete element code, in which a dry granular mass is schematised as a random distribution of rigid spherical particles. The granular mass is generated just in front of the obstacle: its initial volume, velocity distribution, height, length and porosity are arbitrarily assigned, and the impact process is exclusively analysed. The initial conditions are varied to take a large variety of geometrical/mechanical factors, such as the initial front inclination, its height, the initial void ratio, the length of the impacting mass and the inter-particle friction angle, into consideration. A design formula is also proposed on the base of the obtained results and critically compared with the literature data. 相似文献
16.
The assessment of the risks associated with contamination by elevated levels of pollutants is a major issue in most parts
of the world. The risk arises from the presence of a pollutant and from the uncertainty associated with estimating its concentration,
extent and trajectory. The uncertainty in the assessment comes from the difficulty of measuring the pollutant concentration
values accurately at any given location and the impossibility of measuring it at all locations within a study zone. Estimations
tend to give smoothed versions of reality, with the smoothing effect being inversely proportional to the amount of data. If
risk is a measure of the probability of pollutant concentrations exceeding specified thresholds, then the variability is the
key feature in risk assessment and risk analysis. For this reason, geostatistical simulations provide an appropriate way of
quantifying risk by simulating possible “realities” and determining how many of these realities exceed the contamination thresholds,
and, finally, provides a means of visualizing risk and the geological causes of risk. This study concerns multivariate simulations
of organic and inorganic pollutants measured in terrain samples to assess the uncertainty for the risk analysis of a contaminated
site, an industrial site in northern Italy that has to be remediated. The main geostatistical tools are used to model the
local uncertainty of pollutant concentrations, which prevail at any unsampled site, in particular by means of stochastic simulation.
These models of uncertainty have been used in the decision-making processes to identify the areas targeted for remediation. 相似文献
17.
《Geoforum》2017
This paper explores the role of expertise, the nature of criticality, and their relationship to securitisation as mineral raw materials are classified. It works with the construction of risk along the liberal logic of security to explore how “key materials” are turned into “critical materials” in the bureaucratic practice of classification: Experts construct material criticality in assessments as they allot information on the materials to the parameters of the assessment framework. In so doing, they ascribe a new set of connotations to the materials, namely supply risk, and their importance to clean energy, legitimizing a criticality discourse.Specifically, the paper introduces a typology delineating the inferences made by the experts from their produced recommendations in the classification of rare earth element criticality. The paper argues that the classification is a specific process of constructing risk. It proposes that the expert bureaucratic practice of classification legitimizes (i) the valorisation that was made in the drafting of the assessment framework for the classification, and (ii) political operationalization when enacted that might have (non-)distributive implications for the allocation of public budget spending. 相似文献
18.
由于城市轨道交通建设逐年增多,新建隧道与既有桥梁间冲突愈发明显。针对盾构隧道穿越既有桥梁施工风险问题,基于系统思想引入C-V-T模型将待评工程风险划为后果严重性（C）、既有桥梁系统脆弱性（V）与新建隧道系统威胁性（T）,构建致灾-承灾-灾后三系统风险评估流程。引入双因素突变理论并建立三级指标体系,得出既有桥梁突变级数,以定量表达脆弱性。采用交互矩阵衡量新建隧道指标间交叉影响,给出指标-系统权法,并利用多维云及正向发生器优化算法,客观表达多定量指标与定性概念间复杂映射关系及转换态势,以提升T值准确性。明确了后果严重性分级标准,给出三系统风险评估结果耦合方法,由此构建盾构穿越既有桥梁施工风险综合评估模型。将该模型应用于昆明地铁5号线穿越怡心桥工程风险评估中,评估结果与工程实际情况吻合,施工监测数据验证了评估模型的合理性、规范性与适用性。该研究成果有效保证了施工期间桥梁安全与正常使用,可为近似工程提供借鉴与参考。 相似文献
19.
滑坡堰塞湖是山区常见的一种自然灾害,对其溃决风险与过程的科学认知和合理评估是应急处置的关键。外荷载作用下滑坡堰塞体的力学响应、滑坡堰塞湖渐进破坏机理与溃决洪水预测理论是滑坡堰塞湖风险评估研究领域的关键科学问题。本文围绕滑坡堰塞湖形成后的溃决风险与过程展开综述,从定性和定量的角度分别对堰塞湖危险性评价方法进行分析总结,从小尺度、大尺度和超重力场试验技术的角度总结了堰塞湖的溃决机理、溃决过程及其影响因素,从数学方法的角度对堰塞湖溃决洪水预测中经验公式法、简化和精细化数值模拟方法的进展进行总结评价。然而,国内外关于滑坡堰塞湖风险评估领域的研究仍处于起步阶段,空-天-地一体化监测技术、堰塞湖危险性评价中的不确定性问题、堰塞体材料冲蚀特性与溃决机理、堰塞湖溃决洪水精细化模拟等将是未来的重点研究方向。本综述可为堰塞湖防灾减灾和流域水工程风险管理提供有价值的参考。 相似文献
20.
山区道路工程建设用地地质灾害危险性评估技术探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
地质灾害对建设项目造成破坏,因此,在项目建设前进行建设用地地质灾害危险性评估就显得特别重要。在评估过程中,只有对灾害体类型、规模、影响范围、稳定性、危险性和危害程度做出准确的评估,评估结论才能成为拟建项目后续工作的科学依据。文章以某山区道路改造项目为例,探讨了山区崩塌危岩、泥石流灾种的地质灾害危险性评估的定性、半定量评价方法,并根据评估结果,提出了相应的治理方案。本文提出的评估方法在类似项目地质灾害危险性评估中具有参考和借鉴价值。 相似文献