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1.
Yong Shi 《Natural Hazards》2012,62(2):677-689
Due to special geographical location and climate, the waterlogging has always been one of the most serious hazards in Shanghai. Residences in the inner city are prone to be damaged by waterlogging hazards. This paper describes the risk analysis of rainstorm waterlogging on residences in Shanghai. First, a rainstorm scenario of 50-year return period was simulated with the rainstorm simulation model from Shanghai Flood Risk Information Center. Each residence was ranked according to its degree of exposure indicated by the inundation depth of that residence, and an exposure analysis model was then built. It is found from the exposure analysis that residences in the sub-districts like Linfen Road, Pengpu Village, Gonghe New Village, Hongqiao Road, Xianxia Road, Xinhua Road, and Zhenru Town are at high-exposure level. Whereas residences in other sub-districts like Gaojing Town, Siping Road, Huaihai Road, Yuyuan, Waitan, Caojiadu, Nanjing East Road, etc. are at low-exposure level. Second, given the characteristics of residences in waterlogging, the vulnerability of residences was expressed as the proportion of old-style residences to total residences. The results show that residences in Yuyuan, Xiaodongmen, Waitan, Nanjing East Road, Laoximen, Zhapu Road, North Station, and Tilanqiao are the most vulnerable ones, while there is no vulnerability in Fenglin Road, Kongjiang Road, Liangcheng New Village, Quyang Road, Siping Road, and Xianxia Road due to the absence of old-style residences. Finally, a model has been built from a systematic perspective and then waterlogging risk analysis was quantified by multiplying the exposure value with vulnerability value of residences. The results reveal that Laoximen, Tilanqiao, Dinghai Road, North Station, Tianping Road, Hongmei Road, Hunan Road, and Xiaodongmen are at high-risk level. The systemic risk model is a simple tool that can be used to assess the relative risk of waterlogging in different regions and the results of risk analysis are applicable to prevention and mitigation of waterlogging for Shanghai Municipal Government.  相似文献   

2.
Suburban areas have become rapid development zones during China’s current urbanization. Generally, these areas are also regional precipitation centers that are prone to flood disasters. Therefore, it is important to assess the flood risk in suburban areas. In this study, flood risk was defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability based on disaster risk theory. A risk assessment index system was established, and the analytic hierarchy process method was used to determine the index weight. The Fangshan District in Beijing, China, which is an example of a typical suburban area undergoing rapid urbanization, was selected for this study. Six factors were considered in relation to hazard, and three factors were considered for vulnerability. Each indicator was discretized, standardized, weighted, and then combined to obtain the final flood risk map in a geographical information system environment. The results showed that the high and very high risk zones in the Fangshan District were primarily concentrated on Yingfeng Street, Xingcheng Street, Xincheng Street, and Chengguanzhen Street. The comparison to an actual flood disaster suggested that the method was effective and practical. The method can quantitatively reflect the relative magnitude and spatial distribution patterns of flood risk in a region. The method can be applied easily to most suburban areas in China for land use planning and flood risk management.  相似文献   

3.
基于熵权的模糊综合评价法在公路洪灾风险评价中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
公路洪灾是一个多因素耦合的复杂系统,本文针对公路洪灾风险的复杂性、模糊性及不确定性,构造了基于熵权的模糊综合评价模型,通过熵权使权重由主观判断转为由各指标数据之间的关系来确定,从危险性和易损性两方面选取24个评价因子,定量地对重庆境内渝黔高速公路进行洪灾风险评价。评价结果表明,熵权模糊综合评价法是科学可行的,为公路洪灾风险趋势预测以及风险等级划分提供了良好的分析方法,在实践中具有一定的应用价值。  相似文献   

4.
In this study, the future landslide population amount risk (LPAR) is assessed based on integrated machine learning models (MLMs) and scenario simulation techniques in Shuicheng County, China. Firstly, multiple MLMs were selected and hyperparameters were optimized, and the generated 11 models were cross-integrated to select the best model to calculate landslide susceptibility; by calculating precipitation for different extreme precipitation recurrence periods and combining the susceptibility results to assess the landslide hazard. Using the town as the basic unit, the exposure and vulnerability of the future landslide population under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in each town were assessed, and then combined with the hazard to estimate the LPAR in 2050. The results showed that the integrated model with the optimized random forest model as the combination strategy had the best comprehensive performance in susceptibility assessment. The distribution of hazard classes is similar to susceptibility, and with an increase in precipitation, the low-hazard area and high-hazard decrease and shift to medium-hazard and very high-hazard classes. The high-risk areas for future landslide populations in Shuicheng County are mainly concentrated in the three southwestern towns with high vulnerability, whereas the northern towns of Baohua and Qinglin are at the lowest risk class. The LPAR increased with the intensity of extreme precipitation. The LPAR differs significantly among the SSPs scenarios, with the lowest in the “fossil-fueled development (SSP5)” scenario and the highest in the “regional rivalry (SSP3)” scenario. In summary, the landslide susceptibility model based on integrated machine learning proposed in this study has a high predictive capability. The results of future LPAR assessment can provide theoretical guidance for relevant departments to cope with future socioeconomic development challenges and make corresponding disaster prevention and mitigation plans to prevent landslide risks from a developmental perspective.  相似文献   

5.
The recurrent flooding during monsoon and subsequent waterlogging in the northern Bihar plains and the magnitude of losses due to these hazards indicate the continuing vulnerability of the region to flood and waterlogging. Management of floods and waterlogging hazards in highly flood-prone regions of India, including Bihar state has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of flood and waterlogging vulnerability and risk in northern Bihar plains. Multitemporal satellite data was used to evaluate the area statistics and dynamics of waterlogging over the period from 1975 to 2008. The flood proneness is evaluated at district level with reference to flood inundation during a period from 1998 to 2008. Census data were used to examine the socio-economic characteristics of the region through computation of population density, cultivators, agricultural labourers, sex ratio, children in age group 0–6 years and literates. The geohazard map derived by combining area prone to waterlogging and flood inundation was multiplied with socio-economic vulnerability map to derive the flood-waterlogging risk map of the region. The result shows that flood and water-logging pose highest risk to the central districts in the northern Bihar plains with 50.95% of the total area under high and very high risk.  相似文献   

6.
China suffers frequent and severe floods. A lot of studies have been done in the field of flood disaster, including flood vulnerability assessment. This paper develops assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability based on the data envelopment analysis method and identifies multidimensional flood vulnerability??population, death, agriculture and economy??at the provincial scale in China using flood damage data and socioeconomic statistical data from 2001 to 2010. Based on the characteristics of multidimensional flood vulnerability of each province, some suggestions for flood prevention and mitigation are suggested. The assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability are simple and can be used for vulnerability analysis of natural disaster at regional or national levels. The assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability can provide multifaceted information that contributes to a deeper understanding of the flood vulnerability and provides a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of flood prevention and mitigation designs.  相似文献   

7.
Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco’s coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards.  相似文献   

8.
Landslides are the most common natural disasters in mountainous regions, being responsible for significant loss of life as well as damage to critical infrastructure and properties. As the world population grows, people tend to move to higher locations to construct buildings, thereby making structures vulnerable due to landslides. This paper discusses previous research on the vulnerability assessment of structures exposed to landslides and presents a modified semi-quantitative approach to assess the scenario-based physical vulnerability of buildings based on their resistance ability and landslide intensity. Resistance ability is determined by integrating expert knowledge-based resistance factors assigned to five primary building parameters. Landslide intensity matrix defining different intensity levels is proposed based on combinations of landslide velocity and volume. Physical vulnerability of buildings is estimated and classified as class I, II or III for scenario-based low to very high landslide intensity. Finally, the application of the model is illustrated with a case study of 71 buildings from Garhwal Himalayas, India.  相似文献   

9.
Yang  Xiao-Hua  Sun  Bo-Yang  Zhang  Jian  Li  Mei-Shui  He  Jun  Wei  Yi-Ming  Li  Yu-Qi 《Natural Hazards》2015,76(1):63-81

Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.

  相似文献   

10.
This study presents a methodology for risk analysis, assessment, combination, and regionalization of integrated drought and waterlogging disasters in Anhui Province, which is supported by geographical information systems (GIS) and technique of natural disaster risk assessment from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, disaster science, environmental science, and so on. Along with the global warming, the occurrences of water-related disasters become more frequent and serious. It is necessary to determine the mode of spatial distribution of water-related disaster risk. Based on the principle of natural disaster risk, natural conditions, and socioeconomic situation, drought and waterlogging disaster risk index, which combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and restorability, was developed by using combined weights, entropy, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Drought and waterlogging disaster risk zoning map was made out by using GIS spatial analysis technique and gridding GIS technique. It was used for comparing the relative risk of economic and life losses in different grids of Anhui Province. It can also be used to compare the situation of different levels of drought and waterlogging disaster combination risk in a similar place. The result shows that the northwestern and central parts of Anhui Province possess higher risk, while the southwestern and northeastern parts possess lower risk. The information obtained from statistical offices and remote sensing data in relation to results compiled were statistically evaluated. The results obtained from this study are specifically intended to support local and national governmental agencies on water-related disaster management.  相似文献   

11.
Social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards aims to identify vulnerable populations and provide decision makers with scientific basis for their disaster prevention and mitigation decisions. A new method based on remote sensing is presented here to establish a model of social vulnerability for county-scale regions that lack of relative data. To calculate population density, which is the most important indicator in social vulnerability assessment, first, a statistical model is established to estimate the population on village level. Then a new concept defined as “population density based on land use” is created to replace the arithmetic population density. The former has taken the dynamic human distribution related to land use into account; thus, it can map the population distribution more realistically. The other two indicators are age structure and distance to hospital. The application of this method to the Luogang District of Guangzhou, South China demonstrated its capability of providing high spatial resolution and reasonable social vulnerability for social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards.  相似文献   

12.
Loss caused by earthquakes: rapid estimates   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Frolova  N. I.  Larionov  V. I.  Bonnin  J.  Sushchev  S. P.  Ugarov  A. N.  Kozlov  M. A. 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):63-76
Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.  相似文献   

13.
The 2004 tsunami that struck the Sumatra coast gave a warning sign to Malaysia that it is no longer regarded as safe from a future tsunami attack. Since the event, the Malaysian Government has formulated its plan of action by developing an integrated tsunami vulnerability assessment technique to determine the vulnerability levels of each sector along the 520-km-long coastline of the north-west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The scope of assessment is focused on the vulnerability of the physical characteristics of the coastal area, and the vulnerability of the built environment in the area that includes building structures and infrastructures. The assessment was conducted in three distinct stages which stretched across from a macro-scale assessment to several local-scale and finally a micro-scale assessment. On a macro-scale assessment, Tsunami Impact Classification Maps were constructed based on the results of the tsunami propagation modelling of the various tsunami source scenarios. At this stage, highly impacted areas were selected for an assessment of the local hazards in the form of local flood maps based on the inundation modelling output. Tsunami heights and flood depths obtained from these maps were then used to produce the Tsunami Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) maps. These maps recognize sectors within the selected areas that are highly vulnerable to a maximum tsunami run-up and flood event. The final stage is the development of the Structural Vulnerability Index (SVI) maps, which may qualitatively and quantitatively capture the physical and economic resources that are in the tsunami inundation zone during the worst-case scenario event. The results of the assessment in the form of GIS-based Tsunami-prone Vulnerability Index (PVI and SVI) maps are able to differentiate between the various levels of vulnerability, based on the tsunami height and inundation, the various levels of impact severity towards existing building structures, property and land use, and also indicate the resources and human settlements within the study area. Most importantly, the maps could help planners to establish a zoning scheme for potential coastline development based on its sensitivity to tsunami. As a result, some recommendations on evacuation routes and tsunami shelters in the potentially affected areas were also proposed to the Government as a tool for relief agencies to plan for safe evacuation.  相似文献   

14.
Rui-Song Quan 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(3):1569-1585
With the acceleration of the urbanization process, waterlogging problems in coastal cities are becoming more and more serious due to climate change. However, up until now, the common procedures and programs for rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment in coastal cities still have not formed. Considering a series of impact factors of rainstorm waterlogging in coastal city, the present study established a paradigm for rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment through the combination of hydrological modeling and GIS spatial analysis, and took the residence in central urban area of Shanghai as an example. First, the simplified urban waterlogging model was applied to simulate the depth and extent of rainstorm waterlogging under six hypothetic scenarios. Second, the residence exposed to rainstorm waterlogging was extracted and analyzed supported by spatial analysis module of ArcGIS. Then, stage-damage curves were applied to analyze the loss rate of structure and contents of residential building. Finally, the waterlogging loss maps of residence in different scenarios, the annual average loss, and the risk curve were taken as the expression of waterlogging risk. The results show that the inundated water depth, vulnerability, and losses of residence all increase as the intensity of rainstorm increases. The old-style residence is most vulnerable to rainstorm waterlogging, followed by the new-style residence, and villa is less vulnerable to rainstorm waterlogging. The annual average loss of residence in Shanghai central urban area was about CNY 22.25 million. The results also indicate high risk in Yangpu and Putuo districts, Xuhui, Hongkou, Changning and Zhabei districts come under medium-risk zone, and Jing’an, Luwan and Huangpu districts come under low-risk zone. These results provide important information for the local government, and the methodology can be applied in other cities to provide guidance on waterlogging risk governance.  相似文献   

15.
Based on former conceptual models of vulnerability, this paper aims to improve the quantitative model for regional vulnerability assessment by analyzing in-depth the relation between vulnerability, exposure, coping capacity, and resilience. Taking the mountain settlements in the upper reaches of Min River, China, as a case study, the method of Contributing Weight Superposition (CWS) is applied in establishing both a model and a system for the vulnerability assessment of elements at risk. The CWS approach consists of 13 index factors including population, economic and road densities, building and farmland coverage, hazard-affected areas, urbanization rate, and GDP per capita. Accordingly, a debris flow hazard vulnerability zoning map was obtained and the assessment results show that the distribution of high and comparatively high vulnerability zones, where economic activities are considerably high, has a close correlation to the topography of the catchment and population characteristics. The results thus may serve as a pertinent guidance for settlement relocation, population distribution readjustment, and management to prevent and reduce hazards in the upper reaches of Min River and beyond.  相似文献   

16.
Standardization of vulnerability maps   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Groundwater vulnerability assessment schemes are used for the estimation of potential groundwater contamination at different scales and on different administrative levels. However, the term vulnerability is not standardized and the available methods are not able to give a unique assessment of vulnerability creating thus uncertainty in the interpretation and in further application concerning decision creation processes. To judge the information of vulnerability maps certainly and to value the general trends of vulnerability assessment of different methods, four different vulnerability methods of the parametric system group have been applied on a karst area in southwestern Germany to perform a comparative assessment and correlation of these vulnerability assessment methods, namely DRASTIC, PI, EPIK, and GLA. It is shown that by means of simple statistical considerations the first highly different vulnerability maps could be made more coherent after reclassification. The reclassified vulnerability assessments show a more consistent vulnerability distribution pattern and provide the possibility of area-wide validation of the maps as the chosen vulnerability classification is theoretically connected to the mean transit time of percolation water and is largely independent of the applied vulnerability assessment method.  相似文献   

17.
基于GIS的地下水易污性评价系统   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文
介绍了基于MapGIS开发的地下水易污性DRAMTICH评价系统,说明地下水易污性评价软件(GW-VAS)的基本框架、主要功能、组成部分、系统特点以及使用方法。该系统还对DRASTIC等其它常见的地下水易污性评价方法进行了综合集成,克服了单一方法缺乏对比性的不足,提高了评价结果的客观性、科学性和实用性。并将该方法应用于黄水河流域,利用传统的权重评分法和本文开发的方法进行了对比,结果表明,系统通用性好,方法实用性强。 更多还原  相似文献   

18.
This paper presents the results of a research aiming natural and technological hazard, and risk assessment and mapping in Web-based holistic geographic environment, and the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 in Armenia. A common spatial multi-criteria evaluation method was used for natural and technological hazard, risk and population vulnerability assessments. The virtual geographic environment developed by the authors during the previous period of investigations was upgraded and used for the implementation of this research. It involves the following components: 1. geodatabase, 2. modeling and simulation, 3. interface for digital mapping, 4. metadata, 5. Web–based network service for collaboration. Moreover, the country specific natural and technological hazard, risk and population vulnerability assessment methods were developed, implemented, and appropriate digital maps were created.  相似文献   

19.
Waterlogging induced by torrential rain or typhoon in urban areas due to rapid urban development and land cover changes has been a global hotspot and a potential risk affecting urban habitant lifelines and safety. This paper analyzed the impact of land use/cover change on the surface runoff and evaluated the waterlogging risk caused by precipitation with different intensities in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. A simplified urban waterlogging model has been built for the inundated water depth simulation through the combination of both SCS model and GIS spatial analysis with the consideration of underlying surface characters in urban area. Based on the simulated depth results, waterlogging risk ranks were further established to evaluate waterlogging risk of Pudong New Area under different conditions considering social survey results. The results show that the land use structure and pattern change increases surface runoff depth. Under the assumption of a daily maximum precipitation at 200 mm, the surface runoff depth increased by 13.19 mm from 1994 to 2006 due to urbanization. On the whole, Heqing, Huaxia tourism area, Chuansha, Tangzhen and Jichang Town have high waterlogging risk rank, Gaoqiao, Donggou, urban district, Jinqiao, Caolu, Sanlin and Beicai Town have medium waterlogging risk rank, and Zhangjiang, Gaodong and Huamu Town have low waterlogging risk rank. These results provide important information for the local government, and the method of waterlogging risk assessment can also be applied in other cities to provide guidance on waterlogging risk control.  相似文献   

20.
区域承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系研究   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  
樊运晓  罗云  陈庆寿 《现代地质》2001,15(1):113-116
灾害所造成的后果是由致灾环境的危险性和承灾体的脆弱性决定的。承灾体的脆弱性对区域减灾有着极为重要的作用 ,而承灾体脆弱性指标体系的建立则成为区域脆弱性评价的关键。文章确定了承灾体脆弱性评估指标体系的功能及建立原则 ,在前人研究的基础上 ,综合反推法、信息量法等多种方法确定了基于灾前评判的承灾体脆弱性评估指标体系  相似文献   

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