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1.
Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation. 相似文献
2.
The authors define a spatio-statistical response of hurricane frequency to the solar cycle. Previous research indicates reduced (increased) hurricane intensities and frequency in the western (eastern) tropical Atlantic. However, no formal quantitative relationship has been spatially established between hurricane frequency and solar activity. The authors use a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model, an increasingly popular approach due to its advantage in facilitating regression modeling of space–time phenomena in the context of large data sets. Regional hurricane frequency over the period 1866–2010 is examined in response to September sunspot number (SSN) while controlling for other relevant climate factors. The response features a 13 % reduction in probability of annual hurricane occurrence for southeastern Cuba, the southern Bahama islands, Haiti, and Jamaica when the SSN is 80 sunspots. In contrast, hurricane risk in regions of the southeastern Atlantic is predicted to increase by 73 % when the SSN is 160 sunspots. The model can be ported to explore other relationships over contiguous space. 相似文献
3.
通过对近百年来气象记录的分析发现,西北太平洋的台风发生频率及在中国登陆的台风频率的变化与全球地面平均气温变化之间,在滞后26年的情况下存在明显的线性相关关系。据线性回归模型初步预测,随着全球气候的变暖,西北太平洋的台风发生频率及在中国登陆的台风频率将会明显增大。当全球地面平均气温分别升高0.25、0.50、0.75和1.00℃时,西北太平洋的台风发生频率将依次增大27、63、99和134%,在中国登陆的台风频率将依次增大34、63、90和119%。 相似文献
4.
全球海平面变化研究新进展 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8
综述了近10年来海平面变化研究的主要成果,分析了影响海平面变化的主要因素,探讨了海平面变化研究中存在的一些问题。结果表明：①近10年全球平均海平面上升幅度大约为2.5~3.84 mm/a,热膨胀是引起海平面上升的主因;②海平面变化具有时空分布差异——西太平洋和东印度洋地区上升最快,其值高出全球平均值的10倍以上;大西洋与太平洋30~40°N地区季节变化最明显;③将海平面季节高值时段与北半球热带气旋出现时间进行对比,发现每年8~10月份,在20~50°N的西北太平洋与北大西洋沿岸地区出现海平面最高值与热带气旋相叠加的全球危险海岸带,该地带包括中国大陆东部、日本沿海地区、美国东部海岸带、墨西哥湾地区和加勒比海地区。 相似文献
5.
The authors show that historical property damage losses from US hurricanes contain climate signals. The methodology is based
on a statistical model that combines a specification for the number of loss events with a specification for the amount of
loss per event. Separate models are developed for annual and extreme losses. A Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used
to generate posterior samples from the models. Results indicate the chance of at least one loss event increases when the springtime
north–south surface pressure gradient over the North Atlantic is weaker than normal, the Atlantic ocean is warmer than normal,
El Ni?o is absent, and sunspots are few. However, given at least one loss event, the magnitude of the loss per annum is related
only to ocean temperature. The 50-year return level for a loss event is largest under a scenario featuring a warm Atlantic
Ocean, a weak North Atlantic surface pressure gradient, El Ni?o, and few sunspots. The work provides a framework for anticipating
hurricane losses on seasonal and multi-year time scales. 相似文献
6.
Social vulnerability index for coastal communities at risk to hurricane hazard and a changing climate 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
This paper presents the development of the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) in order to quantify the social
vulnerability of hurricane-prone areas under various scenarios of climate change. The 2004–2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons
is estimated to have caused 150 billion dollars in damages, and in recent years, the annual hurricane damage in the United States is estimated at around150 billion dollars in damages, and in recent years, the annual hurricane damage in the United
States is estimated at around 6 billion. Hurricane intensity or/and frequency may change due to the increase in sea surface
temperature as a result of climate change. Climate change is also predicted to cause a rise in sea levels, potentially resulting
in higher storm surges. The CCSVI combines the intensity of hurricanes and hurricane-induced surge to create a comprehensive
index that considers the effects of a changing climate. The main contributing factors of social vulnerability (such as race,
age, gender, and socioeconomic status) in hurricane-prone areas are identified through a principal components analysis. The
impact of social characteristics on the potential hurricane damage under various scenarios of climate change are evaluated
using Miami-Dade County, Florida, as a case study location. This study finds that climate change may have a significant impact
on the CCSVI. 相似文献
7.
第四纪冰期的千年尺度气候突变事件——Dansgaard-Oeschger Event (D-O事件),一直是古气候学领域关注的重点。近年来,数值模拟的研究发现,北大西洋副极地地区年际-年代际气候变率的振幅在D-O事件中的冰阶冷期远大于间冰阶暖期,这一现象为理解该区域海温代理指标的气候学意义提供了重要参考价值,但其动力机制尚不清晰。本文利用海气耦合气候模型(COSMOS),通过模拟氧同位素(MIS)3阶段的一个典型D-O事件过程,探讨了冰阶冷期北大西洋气候变率的放大机制。结果显示,北大西洋副极地海域的季节性海冰通过调控海气间热量交换,影响当地气候变率的幅度。冰阶期,热带暖水向北输送导致海洋次表层逐渐升温,削弱了表层-次表层海水的密度层结,有利于次表层暖水上涌,促进海冰融化及海表温度升高。这将激发出海平面气压的负异常,引起气旋式风切变,并通过Ekman抽吸作用加速表层-次表层海水的垂直混合,进一步促进次表层暖水的上涌。这一正反馈机制造成海洋次表层热量的迅速释放,海表温度快速升高。当次表层热量释放结束后,海表将无暖水补充,导致海表温度下降,海冰增多。该过程激发的海表气压正异常(即反气旋式风切变)将抑制垂直混合发生,促进次表层热量积累,为下一次放热过程提供条件。在间冰阶暖期,随着北大西洋季节性海冰消失,海气间热交换不再受海冰变化影响,海洋次表层与大气间的热交换始终处于准平衡态,气候变率的振幅显著下降。本研究结果显示,北大西洋季节性海冰的存在可以调控海洋次表层热量积累-释放的过程,产生“电容器”效应,这对理解冰期年际-年代际气候变率放大现象有重要启示意义。 相似文献
8.
9.
Evolution of the Galicia Interior Basin over the last 60 ka: sedimentary processes and palaeoceanographic implications 
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下载免费PDF全文 Anxo Mena Guillermo Francés Marta Pérez‐Arlucea Till J. J. Hanebuth Vera B. Bender Miguel A. Nombela 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(5):536-549
The Galicia Interior Basin (GIB; NW Iberian Peninsula) is located near a critical transition between the subtropical (temperate) and subpolar (cold) gyres of the North Atlantic. It therefore witnesses oceanographic changes driven by global climatic events. This study reports on the recent (latest Pleistocene) sedimentary, palaeoceanographic and palaeoclimatic history of the basin. We integrated analysis of deep‐sea sediment cores retrieved from an E–W transect across the GIB. The analysis indicated three types of sedimentary processes recording glacial (Marine Isotope Stage 2–4) and deglacial events: along‐slope bottom currents (forming contourite deposits), pelagic and hemipelagic sedimentation, and gravitational dislocation. Variation in depositional patterns and sedimentation rates indicate distinctive transport (along‐slope and down‐slope) and depositional processes. These in turn reflect climatic and oceanographic drivers. We interpret changes in sea level from core evidence showing changes in sediment supply. The cores exhibited conspicuous sedimentary evidence of Heinrich events (HEs). The stratigraphic intervals associated with HEs showed significant lateral variation. We suggest that the lateral variation may result from the development of an oceanographic boundary between surface water masses with different temperature and salinity parameters or changes in surface currents which may have introduced relatively warmer water into the GIB during the last glacial period. 相似文献
10.
T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar J. Sanjay B. K. Basu A. K. Mitra D. V. Bhaskar Rao O. P. Sharma P. K. Pal T. N. Krishnamurti 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(3):471-485
This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay
of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using
the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the
major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts
produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements
in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean
basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical
cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and
intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less
than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the
November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach.
A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal
tropical cyclone positions and intensity. 相似文献
11.
《Russian Geology and Geophysics》2016,57(9):1283-1287
The available seismic and magnetic data show the Gakkel Ridge rift zone consisting of the Atlantic and Siberian segments divided by a tectonic suture at 70° E. The two segments have had different histories recorded in their sedimentary cover. Apart from the difference in its morphology, the Siberian segment differs from the Atlantic one in the existence of a series of deposition centers, which might represent a vast Paleogenic basin that formed prior to the Gakkel Ridge. The simple model of North Atlantic spreading fails to explain the long and complex history of the Gakkel Ridge rift and the existence of the depocenters. The particular structure of this zone might have resulted from the growth of rift mountains by accretion of magmatic material during the Paleogene, without significant sea floor spreading. 相似文献
12.
Yu. I. Troitskaya O. S. Ermakova A. A. Kandaurov D. S. Kozlov D. A. Sergeev S. S. Zilitinkevich 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2017,477(1):1330-1335
Experiments on generation mechanisms of sea water spray under hurricane wind were performed using shadow illumination high-speed video recording from several camera positions. Classification of fragmentation mechanism leading to generation of spray was conducted. Statistics of the events causing generation of spray was studied. A phenomenological model was developed based on the methods of statistical physics to describe the “bag-breakup” generation mechanism. The function of spray generation was conducted on this basis, which describes well the experimental data obtained under hurricane winds in the natural and laboratory conditions. 相似文献
13.
Aurelio Mercado 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(3):235-246
A numerical-dynamic, tropical storm surge model, SLOSH (Sea, Land, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), was originally developed for real-time forecasting of hurricane storm surges on continental shelves, across inland water bodies and along coastlines and for inland routing of water -either from the sea or from inland water bodies. The model is two-dimensional, covering water bodies and inundated terrain. In the present version available at the University of Puerto Rico a curvilinear, polar coordinate grid scheme is used. The grid cells are approximately 3.2 × 3.2 km in size.The model has been used in a revision of all coastal Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and in hurricane evacuation studies. The FIRM's, since they are based on the 100 year stillwater elevation, are also used by the state Planning Board for regulatory purposes. The hurricane evacuation studies are used by emergency planners and personnel to assign shelters, escape routes, and delimit coastal zones that need to be evacuated during a hurricane threat.Recently, the acquisition of data from hurricane Hugo has allowed the first comparison of model results and observations for Puerto Rico and the other islands. 相似文献
14.
C. F. Michael Lewis Brian J. Todd 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2019,48(1):195-214
An overstepped, concave‐eastward, barrier beach beneath Holocene mud in western Lake Ontario has been delineated by acoustic and seismic reflection profiles and piston cores, and related to Early Lake Ontario (ELO). The average ELO barrier depth below present mean lake level is 77.4 to 80.6 m, or about ?6 to ?2.8 m above present sea level. Trend surface analysis of Champlain Sea (Atlantic Ocean) marine limits defined the contemporaneous marine water surface, and projections of this surface pass ~25 m above the outlet sill of the Lake Ontario basin and extend to the ELO palaeo‐barrier, a unique sand and gravel deposit beneath western Lake Ontario. ELO was connected to the Champlain Sea above the isostatically rising outlet sill for up to three centuries after about 12.8 cal. ka BP, while the glacio‐isostatically depressed St. Lawrence River Valley was inundated by the Atlantic Ocean. During the period of this connection, ELO level was confluent with slowly rising sea level, and the lake constructed a transgressive beach deposit with washover surfaces. ELO remained fresh due to a high flux of meltwater inflow. The marine water level connection stabilized water level in ELO relative to its shore and facilitated shore erosion, sediment supply and barrier construction. Glacio‐isostatic uplift of the outlet sill, faster than sea‐level rise, lifted ELO above the Champlain Sea about 12.5 cal. ka. Shortly after, a hydrological deficit due mainly to a combination of diverted meltwater inflow and dry climate, well known from regional pollen studies, forced the lake into a lowstand. The lowstand stranded the barrier, which remains as evidence of sea level, the farthest inland in eastern North America north of the Gulf of Mexico at the time. The highest palaeo‐washover surface provides a sea‐level index point. 相似文献
15.
S.E. Lluch-Cota M. Tripp-Valdez D.B. Lluch-Cota J.J. Bautista-Romero D. Lluch-Belda J. Verbesselt H. Herrera-Cervantes 《Atmósfera》2013,26(4):537-546
Changes in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change signals in the seas off Mexico is presented and compared to other regions and the world ocean, and to selected basin scale climatic indices of the North Pacific, the Atlantic and the tropical Pacific variability. We identified eight regions with different exposure to climate variability: In the Pacific, the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with mostly no trend, the Gulf of California with a modest cooling trend during the last 20 to 25 years, the oceanic area with the most intense recent cooling trend, the southern part showing an intense warming trend, and a band of no trend setting the boundary between North-Pacific and tropical-Pacific variability patterns; in the Atlantic, the northeast Gulf of Mexico shows cooling, while the western Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have been warming for more than three decades. Potential interactions with fisheries and coastal sensitive ecosystems are discussed. 相似文献
16.
A high-resolution, well-dated dinoflagellate cyst record from a lagoon of the southeastern Swedish Baltic Sea reveals climate and hydrological changes during the Holocene. Marine dinoflagellate cysts occurred initially at about 8600 cal yr BP, indicating the onset of the Littorina transgression in the southeastern Swedish lowland associated with global sea level rise, and thus the opening of the Danish straits. Both the species diversity and the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts continued to increase by 7000 cal yr BP and then decreased progressively. This pattern reveals the first-order change in local sea level as a function of ice-volume-equivalent sea level rise versus isostatic land uplift. Superimposed upon this local sea level trend, well-defined fluctuations of the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts occurred on quasi-1000- and 500-yr frequency bands particularly between 7500 and 4000 cal yr BP, when the connection between the Baltic basin and the North Atlantic was broader. A close correlation of the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts with GISP2 ice core sea-salt ions suggests that fluctuations of Baltic surface conditions during the middle Holocene might have been regulated by quasi-periodic variations of the prevailing southwesterly winds, most likely through a system similar to the dipole oscillation of the modern North Atlantic atmosphere. 相似文献
17.
北冰洋盐跃层研究进展 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8
长年存在的盐跃层是北冰洋上层海洋独有的结构之一，对维持北冰洋表层的低温特征和海冰存在起着非常重要的作用。在过去的十几年中，北冰洋气候系统发生了前所未有的异常变化，北冰洋盐跃层也经历了从消退到近乎恢复的戏剧性变化。因此，北冰洋及其盐跃层的研究得到了广泛的重视。介绍了有关北冰洋盐跃层研究的进展情况，并对研究中存在的问题以及未来的发展进行了分析和阐述。有关北冰洋盐跃层的形成问题，先后有平流机制、对流机制等多种观点。认为由于现在欧亚海盆表层盐度普遍增高，其盐跃层的形成当以对流机制为主；而平流机制则更加适用于加拿大海盆的盐跃层。20世纪90年代，在北冰洋观测到一系列异常变化，包括盐跃层退缩、大西洋层增暖和北极海冰减少。实际上，这些变化是紧密联系在一起的，而后期盐跃层局部性的恢复似乎表明目前观测到的北冰洋气候系统的变化有可能是一种周期性的振荡。 相似文献
18.
A total of 269 tropical storms and hurricanes originated in the North Atlantic basin from 1960–1989. Of these, 76 made landfall on the continental United states. This study divides the 76 tropical storms into their month of formation. Seasonal shifts in the principal areas of tropical cyclone formation over the Atlantic basin have been recognized for many decades. The results of the study suggest that the early and late season tropical cyclones develop in areas which are first affected by the position of the sun, resulting in an increase in water temperatures. These cyclones normally make landfall along the Gulf Coast and usually are of low intensity. Formation areas shift eastward in mid-summer with a slight increase in intensity. By late August and early September, the formation areas have extended to the Cape Verde Islands. These storms tend to strike the east coast of the US and are normally more intense. By the end of the hurricane season, the primary formation area has shifted back to the Gulf of Mexico, with low intensity storms affecting the Gulf Coast. 相似文献
19.
A scenario for the future development of the Dutch Wadden Sea is derived from an evolutionary model for tidal basins during a rise in sea level. The model is based on the evolution of the Atlantic/Subboreal Holland tidal basin, between 7000 BP and 3500 BP. It emphasizes the balance between the storage capacity created by a sea-level rise and the amount of sediment available.
If the rate of relative sea-level rise exceeds the rate of sediment supply, the innermost (central) portions of the basin will not receive sufficient sediment for an intertidal morphology to be preserved. Eventually, sand will be deposited only in tidal channels and in the flood-tidal delta through which the sediment is supplied, mud deposition will occur in the interchannel areas and salt marshes will disappear. 相似文献
20.
Probability-based assessment of hurricane damage costs for coastal communities is vital for policy-makers and insurers. The uncertainties associated with hurricane damage costs include both the inherent uncertainty due to the random nature of hurricane process and the model uncertainty of the mathematical representation of hurricane damage (vulnerability model). The hurricane vulnerability model has traditionally been modeled as a deterministic function of hurricane wind speed in the literature, without considering the effect of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage assessment. This paper develops two methods to assess the hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty. To account for the non-stationarity in hurricane actions due to the potential impact of climate change, the hurricane occurrence process is modeled as a non-stationary Poisson process and the hurricane intensity is assumed to vary in time with time-variant statistical parameters of hurricane wind speed. A case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida, is conducted to illustrate the proposed methods and to investigate the impact of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage costs. 相似文献