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1.
A new method to predict the runout of debris flows is presented. A data base of documented sediment‐transporting events in torrent catchments of Austria, Switzerland and northern Italy has been compiled, using common classification techniques. With this data we test an empirical approach between planimetric deposition area and event volume, and compare it with results from other studies. We introduce a new empirical relation to determine the mobility coefficient as a function of geomorphologic catchment parameters. The mobility coefficient is thought to reflect some of the flow properties during the depositional part of the debris‐flow event. The empirical equations are implemented in a geographical information system (GIS) based simulation program and combined with a simple flow routing algorithm, to determine the potential runout area covered by debris‐flow deposits. For a given volume and starting point of the deposits, a Monte‐Carlo technique is used to produce flow paths that simulate the spreading effect of a debris flow. The runout zone is delineated by confining the simulated potential spreading area in the down slope direction with the empirically determined planimetric deposition area. The debris‐flow volume is then distributed over the predicted area according to the calculated outflow probability of each cell. The simulation uses the ARC‐Objects environment of ESRI© and is adapted to run with high resolution (2·5 m × 2·5 m) digital elevation models, generated for example from LiDAR data. The simulation program called TopRunDF is tested with debris‐flow events of 1987 and 2005 in Switzerland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Volcanoes of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) have yielded numerous sector and flank collapses during Pleistocene and Holocene times. Sector collapses associated with magmatic activity have yielded debris avalanches with generally limited runout extent (e.g. Popocatépetl, Jocotitlán, and Colima volcanoes). In contrast, flank collapses (smaller failures not involving the volcano summit), both associated and unassociated with magmatic activity and correlating with intense hydrothermal alteration in ice-capped volcanoes, commonly have yielded highly mobile cohesive debris flows (e.g. Pico de Orizaba and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes). Collapse orientation in the TMVB is preferentially to the south and northeast, probably reflecting the tectonic regime of active E–W and NNW faults. The differing mobilities of the flows transformed from collapses have important implications for hazard assessment. Both sector and flank collapse can yield highly mobile debris flows, but this transformation is more common in the cases of the smaller failures. High mobility is related to factors such as water content and clay content of the failed material, the paleotopography, and the extent of entrainment of sediment during flow (bulking). The ratio of fall height to runout distance commonly used for hazard zonation of debris avalanches is not valid for debris flows, which are more effectively modeled with the relation inundated area to failure or flow volume coupled with the topography of the inundated area.  相似文献   

3.
Channels that have been scoured to bedrock by debris flows provide unique opportunities to calculate the rate of sediment and wood accumulation in low‐order streams, to understand the temporal succession of channel morphology following disturbance, and to make inferences about processes associated with input and transport of sediment. Dendrochronology was used to estimate the time since the previous debris flow and the time since the last stand‐replacement fire in unlogged basins in the central Coast Range of Oregon. Debris flow activity increased 42 per cent above the background rate in the decades immediately following the last wildfire. Changes in wood and sediment storage were quantified for 13 streams that ranged from 4 to 144 years since the previous debris flow. The volume of wood and sediment in the channel, and the length of channel with exposed bedrock, were strongly correlated with the time since the previous debris flow. Wood increased the storage capacity of the channel and trapped the majority of the sediment in these steep headwater streams. In the absence of wood, channels that have been scoured to bedrock by a debris flow may lack the capacity to store sediment and could persist in a bedrock state for an extended period of time. With an adequate supply of wood, low‐order channels have the potential of storing large volumes of sediment in the interval between debris flows and can function as one of the dominant storage reservoirs for sediment in mountainous terrain. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
This paper presents the results of a movable‐boundary, distorted, Froude‐scaled hydraulic model based on Abiaca Creek, a sand‐bedded channel in northern Mississippi. The model was used to examine the geomorphic and hydraulic impact of simplified large woody debris (LWD) elements. The theory of physical scale models is discussed and the method used to construct the LWD test channel is developed. The channel model had bed and banks moulded from 0·8 mm sand, and flow conditions were just below the threshold of motion so that any sediment transport and channel adjustment were the result of the debris element. Dimensions and positions of LWD elements were determined using a debris jam classification model. Elements were attached to a dynamometer to measure element drag forces, and channel adjustment was determined through detailed topographic surveys. The fluid drag force on the elements decreased asymptotically over time as the channel boundary eroded around the elements due to locally increased boundary shear stress. Total time for geomorphic adjustment computed for the prototype channel at the Q2 discharge (discharge occurring once every two years on average) was as short as 45 hours. The size, depth and position of scour holes, bank erosion and bars created by flow acceleration past the elements were found to be related to element length and position within the channel cross‐section. Morphologies created by each debris element in the model channel were comparable with similar jams observed in the prototype channel. Published in 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
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6.
Field studies that investigate sediment transport between debris-flow-producing headwaters and rivers are uncommon, particularly in forested settings, where debris flows are infrequent and opportunities for collecting data are limited. This study quantifies the volume and composition of sediment deposited in the arterial channel network of a 14-km2 catchment (Washington Creek) that connects small, burned and debris-flow-producing headwaters (<1 km2) with the Ovens River in SE Australia. We construct a sediment budget by combining new data on deposition with a sediment delivery model for post-fire debris flows. Data on deposits were plotted alongside the slope–area curve to examine links between processes, catchment morphometry and geomorphic process domains. The results show that large deposits are concentrated in the proximity of three major channel junctions, which correspond to breaks in channel slope. Hyperconcentrated flows are more prominent towards the catchment outlet, where the slope–area curve indicates a transition from debris flow to fluvial domains. This shift corresponds to a change in efficiency of the flow, determined from the ratio of median grain size to channel slope. Our sediment budget suggests a total sediment efflux from Washington Creek catchment of 61 × 103 m3. There are similar contributions from hillslopes (43 ± 14 × 103 m3), first to third stream order channel (35 ± 12 × 103 m3) and the arterial fourth to fifth stream order channel (31 ± 17 × 103 m3) to the total volume of erosion. Deposition (39 ± 17 × 103 m3) within the arterial channel was higher than erosion (31 ± 17 × 103 m3), which means a net sediment gain of about 8 × 103 m3 in the arterial channel. The ratio of total deposition to total erosion was 0.44. For fines <63 μm, this ratio was much smaller (0.11), which means that fines are preferentially exported. This has important implications for suspended sediment and water quality in downstream rivers. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Debris flows are among the most destructive and hazardous mass movements on steep mountains. An understanding of debris-flow erosion, entrainment and resulting volumes is a key requirement for modelling debris-flow propagation and impact, as well as analysing the associated risks. As quantitative controls of erosion and entrainment are not well understood, total volume, runout and impact energies of debris flows are often significantly underestimated. Here, we present an analysis of geomorphic change induced by an erosive debris-flow event in the German Alps in June 2015. More than 50 terrestrial laser scans of a 1.2 km long mountain torrent recorded geomorphic change in comparison to an airborne laser scan performed in 2007. Errors were calculated using a spatial variable threshold based on the point density of airborne laser scanning and terrestrial laser scanning and the slope of the digital elevation models. Highest erosion rates approach 5.0 m3/m2 (mean 0.6 m3/m2). During the event 9550 ± 1550 m3 was eroded whereas only 650 ± 150 m3 was deposited in the channel. Velocity, flow pressure, momentum and shear stress were calculated using a carefully calibrated RAMMS Debris Flow model including material entrainment. Here we present a linear regression model relating debris-flow erosion rates to momentum and shear stress with an R2 up to 68%. Channel transitions from bedrock to loose debris sections cause excessive erosion up to 1 m3/m2 due to previously unreleased random kinetic energy now available for erosion. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Debris flows generated from landslides are common processes and represent a severe hazard in mountain regions due to their high mobility and impact energy. We investigate the dynamics and the rheological properties of a 90 000 m3 debris‐flow event triggered by a rapid regressive landslide with high water content. Field evidence revealed a maximum flow depth of 7–8 m, with an estimated peak discharge of 350–400 m3 s?1. Depositional evidence and grain‐size distribution of the debris pose the debris flow in an intermediate condition between the fluid‐mud and grain‐flow behaviour. The debris‐flow material has silt–clay content up to 15 per cent. The rheological behaviour of the finer matrix was directly assessed with the ball measuring system. The measurements, performed on two samples at 45–63 per cent in sediment concentration by volume, gave values of 3·5–577 Pa for the yield strength, and 0·6–27·9 Pa s for the viscosity. Based on field evidence, we have empirically estimated the yield strength and viscosity ranging between 4000 ± 200 Pa, and 108–134 Pa s, respectively. We used the Flo‐2D code to replicate the debris‐flow event. We applied the model with rheological properties estimated by means of direct measurements and back‐analyses. The results of these models show that the rheological behaviour of a debris‐flow mass containing coarse clasts can not be assessed solely on the contribution of the finer matrix and thus neglecting the effects of direct grain contacts. For debris flows composed by a significant number of coarse clasts a back‐analysis estimation of the rheological parameters is necessary to replicate satisfactorily the depositional extent of debris flows. In these cases, the back‐estimated coefficients do not adequately describe the rheological properties of the debris flow. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Debris flows often exhibit high mobility, leading to extensive hazards far from their sources. Although it is known that debris flow mobility increases with initial volume, the underlying mechanism remains uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the mobility–volume relation for debris flows using a recent depth-averaged two-phase flow model without evoking a reduced friction coefficient, challenging currently prevailing friction-reduction hypotheses. Physical experimental debris flows driven by solid–liquid mass release and extended numerical cases at both laboratory and field scales are resolved by the model. For the first time, we probe into the energetics of the debris flows and find that, whilst the energy balance holds and fine and coarse grains play distinct roles in debris flow energetics, the grains as a whole release energy to the liquid due to inter-phase and inter-grain size interactions, and this grain-energy release correlates closely with mobility. Despite uncertainty arising from the model closures, our results provide insight into the fundamental mechanisms operating in debris flows. We propose that debris flow mobility is governed by grain-energy release, thereby facilitating a bridge between mobility and internal energy transfer. The initial volume of debris flow is inadequate for characterizing debris flow mobility, and a friction-reduction mechanism is not a prerequisite for the high mobility of debris flows. By contrast, inter-phase and inter-grain size interactions play primary roles and should be incorporated explicitly in debris flow models. Our findings are qualitatively encouraging and physically meaningful, providing implications not only for assessing future debris flow hazards and informing mitigation and adaptation strategies, but also for unravelling a spectrum of earth surface processes including heavily sediment-laden floods, subaqueous debris flows and turbidity currents in rivers, reservoirs, estuaries, and ocean. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Debris flows can grow greatly in size by entrainment of bed material, enhancing their runout and hazardous impact. Here, we experimentally investigate the effects of debris‐flow composition on the amount and spatial patterns of bed scour and erosion downstream of a fixed to erodible bed transition. The experimental debris flows were observed to entrain bed particles both grain by grain and en masse, and the majority of entrainment was observed to occur during passage of the flow front. The spatial bed scour patterns are highly variable, but large‐scale patterns are largely similar over 22.5–35° channel slopes for debris flows of similar composition. Scour depth is generally largest slightly downstream of the fixed to erodible bed transition, except for clay‐rich debris flows, which cause a relatively uniform scour pattern. The spatial variability in the scour depth decreases with increasing water, gravel (= grain size) and clay fraction. Basal scour depth increases with channel slope, flow velocity, flow depth, discharge and shear stress in our experiments, whereas there is no correlation with grain collisional stress. The strongest correlation is between basal scour and shear stress and discharge. There are substantial differences in the scour caused by different types of debris flows. In general, mean and maximum scour depths become larger with increasing water fraction and grain size, and decrease with increasing clay content. However, the erodibility of coarse‐grained experimental debris flows (gravel fraction = 0.64) is similar on a wide range of channel slopes, flow depths, flow velocities, discharges and shear stresses. This probably relates to the relatively large influence of grain‐collisional stress to the total bed stress in these flows (30–50%). The relative effect of grain‐collisional stress is low in the other experimental debris flows (<5%), causing erosion to be largely controlled by basal shear stress. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Wildfires represent one of the largest disturbances in watersheds of the Intermountain West. Yet, we lack models capable of predicting post-wildfire impacts on downstream ecosystems and infrastructure. Here we present a novel modeling framework that links new and existing models to simulate the post-wildfire sediment cascade, including spatially explicit predictions of debris flows, storage of debris flow sediment within valleys, delivery of debris flow sediment to active channels, and the downstream routing of sediment through river networks. We apply the model to sediment dynamics in Clear Creek watershed following the 2010 Twitchell Canyon Fire in the Tushar Mountains of southern Utah. The debris flow generation model performed well, correctly predicting 19 out of 20 debris flows from the largest catchments, with only four false positives and two false negatives at observed rainfall intensities. In total, the model predicts the occurrence of 160 post-wildfire debris flows across the Clear Creek watershed, generating more than 650 000 m3 of sediment. Our new storage and delivery model predicts the vast majority of this sediment is stored within valleys, and only 13% is delivered to the river network. The sediment routing model identifies numerous sediment bottlenecks within the network, which alter transport dynamics and may be hotspots for aggradation and aquatic habitat alteration. The volume of sediment exported from the watershed after seven years of simulation totals 17% of that delivered, or 2% of the total generated debris flow sediment. In the case of the Twitchell Canyon Fire, this highlights that significant post-wildfire sediment volumes can be stored in valleys (87%) and within the stream network (11%). Finally, we discuss useful insights that can be gleaned from the model framework, as well as the limitations and need for more monitoring and theory development in order to better constrain essential inputs, process rates, and morphodynamics. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Holocene glaciers have contributed to an abundance of unstable sediments in mountainous environments. In permafrost environments, these sediments can contain ground ice and are subject to rapid geomorphic activity and evolution under condition of a warming climate. To understand the influence of ground ice distribution on this activity since the Little Ice Age (LIA), we have investigated the Pierre Ronde and Rognes proglacial areas, two cirque glacier systems located in the periglacial belt of the Mont Blanc massif. For the first time, electrical resistivity tomography, temperature data loggers and differential global positioning systems (dGPS) are combined with historical documents and glaciological data analysis to produce a complete study of evolution in time and space of these small landsystems since the LIA. This approach allows to explain spatial heterogeneity of current internal structure and dynamics. The studied sites are a complex assemblage of debris‐covered glacier, ice‐rich frozen debris and unfrozen debris. Ground ice distribution is related to former glacier thermal regime, isolating effect of debris cover, water supply to specific zones, and topography. In relation with this internal structure, present dynamics are dominated by rapid ice melt in the debris‐covered upper slopes, slow creep processes in marginal glacigenic rock glaciers, and weak, superficial reworking in deglaciated moraines. Since the LIA, geomorphic activity is mainly spatially restricted within the proglacial areas. Sediment exportation has occurred in a limited part of the former Rognes Glacier and through water pocket outburst flood and debris flows in Pierre Ronde. Both sites contributed little sediment supply to the downslope geomorphic system, rather by episodic events than by constant supply. In that way, during Holocene and even in a paraglacial context as the recent deglaciation, proglacial areas of cirque glaciers act mostly as sediment sinks, when active geomorphic processes are unable to evacuate sediment downslope, especially because of the slope angle weakness. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Debris flow is one of the dominant processes distributing large wood (LW) within mountainous catchments. However, little has been reviewed on wood-laden debris flow (WLDF), presumably owing to limited reviewable works. This article, therefore, navigates the international readers through 40 years of WLDF studies, most of which have been published only in Japanese. Firstly, we reviewed the historical development of Japanese WLDF particularly focusing on the 1980s and the 1990s. A series of post-disaster fieldworks from the July 1982 Nagasaki flood to the July 1990 Kumamoto flood provided 32 catchment-scale wood budgeting data; empirical relationships among drainage area, dominant tree species, sediment yield, and wood loads associated with single debris flow disasters were illustrated. Secondly, the characteristics of WLDF were summarized based on relevant previous studies on the recruitment, transport, and deposition processes of LW during debris flows. Thirdly, we discussed the connectivity between those Japanese WLDF studies and international LW studies by relating/contrasting their research approaches and spatiotemporal scales. In contrast to global LW research trends, Japanese WLDF studies have almost exclusively regarded LW as hazardous materials (i.e., “driftwood” or “woody debris”) that need to be retained upstream of the inhabited areas. Those practice-oriented WLDF studies were concentrated on drainage areas of 10−2 to 100 km2, representing 1–6 orders of magnitude smaller spatial scales than those generally covered by existing international LW studies. Strongly motivated by engineering requirements, “dynamic” interactions between debris flows and LW during floods have also been physically presented, mainly based on unique laboratory experiments involving steep flume (> 0.05) and mobile bed conditions. Finally, some future works for WLDF were briefly stated from practical and scientific perspectives. By “rediscovering” those WLDF studies domestically developed in Japanese debris flow channels since the 1980s, a more comprehensive understanding of LW dynamics in the river system may be achieved.  相似文献   

14.
Construction of frequency–magnitude (F–M) relationships of debris floods and debris flows is challenging because of few direct observations, discontinuous event occurrence, loss of field evidence, the difficulty of accessing the sediment archive and the challenge of finding suitable statistical methods to analyse the dataset. Consultants often face budget limitations that prohibit application of the full gamut of absolute dating methods, stratigraphic analysis and analytical tools necessary to fully resolve the F–M legacy. In some cases, F–M curves are needed for watersheds without local information, or where obtaining this information is prohibitively expensive. For such watersheds, the F–M relationship may be estimated where several F–M curves have already been assembled in a specific region. Individual F–M curves are normalized by fan area or fan volume, then stratified by process type and geomorphic activity level. This paper describes the development of regional F–M curves for debris flows in southwestern British Columbia and debris flows and debris floods in the Bow River valley near Canmore, Alberta. We apply the regional relationships to other cases in Canada and the United States and demonstrate that the method can be globalized. The regional approach is compared to cases where detailed F–M relationships have been established by other means. Strong negative deviations from the regional debris-flow or debris-flood magnitude trends could signal inherent watershed stability, while strong positive deviations could signal extraordinary landslide processes, or suggest that the fan may be largely of paraglacial origin. We highlight some of these outlying cases and develop a method whereby the regional curves can be meaningfully adjusted, or reliance can be placed on lower or upper confidence bounds of the F–M curves. We caution against the indiscriminate use of the regionally based F–M curves, especially in watersheds where multiple geomorphic processes are active. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Large woody debris (LWD) can have a significant impact upon local channel morphology by creating scour pools and zones of reduced shear stress in which sediment is deposited. It is important to predict scour depths associated with LWD, as it is becoming increasingly common for debris to be added into river channels to improve sediment retention and create pools for aquatic habitat. Engineered log‐jams should therefore be designed using factor of safety engineering analysis, which includes estimates of associated scour and deposition rates. However, the rate and total depth of scour associated with LWD have not been modelled comprehensively, with authors resorting to the use of generic local and constriction scour models to predict scour depths. Also, constriction scour models presented, to date, do not calculate the rate of scour development. In this paper a model is presented for predicting the rate and total depth of scour associated with a channel constriction. The model is one‐dimensional and is based upon the sediment continuity equation, the calculation of specific head changes through the constricted reach and also allows for a variable free surface elevation above the bed at the constriction. This model could be applied to any channel constriction problem but here is used to determine scour rates and depths associated with deflector‐type LWD jams. Deflector jams are one category of jam type presented in a debris jam classification scheme, in which jam type is a function of the ratio of average riparian tree height to average channel width. Deflector jams, as the name implies, partially block the flow and therefore act as a channel constriction, which results in constriction scour. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Predicting the spatial impact of debris flows on fans is challenging due to complex runout behaviour. Debris flow mobility is highly variable and flows can sporadically avulse the channel. For hazard and risk assessments, practitioners typically base the probability of spatial impact or avulsion on their experience and expert judgement. To support decision-making with empirical observations, we studied spatial impact distributions on 30 active debris-flow fans in south-western British Columbia, Canada. We mapped 146 debris-flow impact areas over an average observation period of 74 years using orthorectified airphotos, satellite imagery, topographic base maps, LiDAR data, orthophotos, and field observations. We devised a graphical method to convert our geospatial mapping into spatial impact heat maps normalized by fan boundaries, enabling comparison of runout distributions across different fans. About 90% of the mapped debris flows reached beyond the mid-points of fans, while less than 10% avulsed more than half-way across the fan relative to the previous flow path. Most avulsions initiated at distances of 20% to 40% of the maximum fan length from the fan apex and upstream of the fan intersection point. Large volume events tend to be more mobile in the down-fan direction, but the relation between volume and cross-fan runout (e.g., avulsions) is more complex. Differences in spatial impact distributions can be explained, in part, by the degree of fan incision and whether a fan is truncated at its toe by a river or lake. There were no significant differences in spatial impact distributions based on the geology of the source area, sediment supply condition, or hydrogeomorphic process classification.  相似文献   

17.
The geomorphological characteristics of small debris flows in a maritime sub‐Antarctic environment are described. The morphological and sedimentological characteristics of the debris flows are comparable to debris flows documented for other parts of the world; their initiation appears closely linked to the unusual environment in which they are found. Sediment supply is generated by diurnal frost heave of loamy sediment associated with Azorella selago. The debris flows are triggered by sediment mobilization upon saturation of the frost‐heaved surface gravel and overland flow over the low‐permeability and frost‐susceptible slope materials. Morphological effects of the flows are short‐lived due to obliteration by subsequent frost heave activity. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Post-fire debris flows represent one of the most erosive consequences associated with increasing wildfire severity and investigations into their downstream impacts have been limited. Recent advances have linked existing hydrogeomorphic models to predict potential impacts of post-fire erosion at watershed scales on downstream water resources. Here we address two key limitations in current models: (1) accurate predictions of post-fire debris flow volumes in the absence of triggering storm rainfall intensities and (2) understanding controls on grain sizes produced by post-fire debris flows. We compiled and analysed a novel dataset of depositional volumes and grain size distributions (GSDs) for 59 post-fire debris flows across the Intermountain West (IMW) collected via fieldwork and from the literature. We first evaluated the utility of existing models for post-fire debris flow volume prediction, which were largely developed for Southern California. We then constructed a new post-fire debris flow volume prediction model for the IMW using a combination of Random Forest modelling and regression analysis. We found topography and burn severity to be important variables, and that the percentage of pre-fire soil organic matter was an essential predictor variable. Our model was also capable of predicting debris flow volumes without data for the triggering storm, suggesting that rainfall may be more important as a presence/absence predictor, rather than a scaling variable. We also constructed the first models that predict the median, 16th percentile, and 84th percentile grain sizes, as well as boulder size, produced by post-fire debris flows. These models demonstrate consistent landscape controls on debris flow GSDs that are related to land cover, physical and chemical weathering, and hillslope sediment transport processes. This work advances our ability to predict how post-fire sediment pulses are transported through watersheds. Our models allow for improved pre- and post-fire risk assessments across diverse ranges of watersheds in the IMW.  相似文献   

19.
This study proposes a sediment‐budget model to predict the temporal variation of debris volume stored in a debris‐flow prone watershed. The sediment‐budget is dominated by shallow landslides and debris outflow. The basin topography and the debris volume stored in the source area of the debris‐flow prone watershed help evaluating its debris‐flow susceptibility. The susceptibility model is applied to the Tungshih area of central western Taiwan. The importance of the debris volume in predicting debris‐flow susceptibility is reflected in the standardized coefficients of the proposed statistical discriminant model. The high prediction rate (0·874) for the occurrence of debris flows justifies the capability of the proposed susceptibility models to predict the occurrence of debris flows. This model is then used to evaluate the temporal evolution of the debris‐flow susceptibility index. The analysis results show that the numbers of watershed which are classified as a debris‐flow group correspond well to storage of sediment at different time periods. These numbers are 10 before the occurrence of Chi‐Chi earthquake, 13 after the occurrence of Chi‐Chi earthquake, 16 after the occurrence of landslides induced by Typhoon Mindulle (Typhoon M), and 14 after the occurrence of debris flows induced by Typhoon M. It indicates that the occurrence of 7·6 Chi‐Chi earthquake had significant impact on the debris flow occurrence during subsequent typhoons. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Based on the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy, this paper presents an approach to simulate debris flow maximum run‐out. On the basis of the flow source areas and an average thickness of 1·2 m of the scarps, we estimated debris flow volumes of the order of 104 and 105 m3. Flow mobility ratios (ΔH/L) derived from the x, y, z coordinates of the lower‐most limit of the source areas (i.e. apex of the alluvial fan) and the distal limit of the flows ranged between 0·27 and 0·09. We performed regression analyses that showed a good correlation between the estimated flow volumes and mobility ratios. This paper presents a methodology for predicting maximum run‐out of future debris flow events, based on the developed empirical relationship. We implemented the equation that resulted from the calibration as a set of GIS macros written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and running within ArcGIS. We carried out sensitivity analyses and observed that hazard mapping with this methodology should attempt to delineate hazard zones with a minimum horizontal resolution of 0·4 km. The developed procedure enables the rapid delineation of debris flow maximum extent within reasonable levels of uncertainty, it incorporates sensitivities and it facilitates hazard assessments via graphic user interfaces and with modest computing resources. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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