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1.
Quasi-synoptic distributions of salinity and the concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients in the winter regime of the northern Irish Sea are presented. Salinity to nutrient regression analyses and the distributions of nutrient ratios show that the characteristics of Atlantic waters are variously modified during their northward passage through the Irish Sea. Inherently different chemical characteristics of the fresh water sources discharging into the Northern Irish Sea generate a conglomeration of water types in the area. Marine waters along the Irish coast are relatively enriched in silicon, while waters adjacent to the eastern coastal boundary are relatively enriched by anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Possible implications of the spatial dichotomy in nutrient status for the seasonal production cycle in the northern Irish Sea are considered.  相似文献   

2.
Single point time-series data collected in the Irish Sea since 1954 by Allen et al. (1998) have been re-evaluated using more recent data and areal winter surveys of the Celtic and Irish Seas. Survey data illustrate the heterogeneity of nutrient distributions with N (≈28 μM) and P (2·0 μM) enrichment of the eastern Irish Sea relative to the western Irish Sea (7–8 μM N and 0·7 μM P). Salinity nutrient relationships demonstrate distinct regional differences throughout the two seas. Trends in the Isle of Man time-series are unlikely to have resulted from changes in analytical procedures and personnel. Concerns over data quality cannot be resolved and there are no independent data to validate the time-series. Including more recent data shows P has declined since the late 1980s and N concentrations have remained stable since the mid 1970s. The absence of a Si trend is consistent with limited anthropogenic influence on riverine Si concentrations. Trends in N and P are consistent with changes in riverine concentrations of these two nutrients and the biogeochemical processes controlling their cycling in shelf waters. Denitrification is the most likely reason for offshore Irish Sea concentrations of N being lower than expected.  相似文献   

3.
Historic changes in flux of matter and nutrient budgets in the Bohai Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Over the past four periods （ 1959--1960, 1982--1983, 1992--1993, and 1998--1999）, the ecosystem of the Bohai Sea changed due to both a significant decrease of river water discharge from the Huanghe River and a reduction of precipitation. The shifts in nutrient chemistry could result in changes in the phytoplankton composition with an increased potential for non-diatom algal blooms. Simple box model was used to estimate the water - mass balance and nutrient budgets for the Bohai Sea. Water budgets indicate that the residual flow changed from out of the Bohai Sea before 1993, but became inflow to the Bohai Sea after then. The nutrient budgets developed indicate that the Bohai Sea was a sink for nutrients except for phosphate in 1959--1960 and 1982-- 1983 and for silicate in 1982--1983. Net water flow transports nutrients out of the Bohai Sea in 1959--1960, 1982--1983 and 1992--1993, but into the sea in 1998--1999 due to climate changes, such as precipitation and subsequent freshwater discharge. The residual fluxes of nutrients are minor relative to atmospheric deposition and riverine inputs. Conversions of phosphate values to carbon by stoichiometric ratios were used to predict that the system was net heterotrophic before 1982--1983 and net autotrophic after then. Nutrient budgets can explain the change of nutrient concentrations in the Bohai Sea except nitrates, which should include the surface runoff.  相似文献   

4.
Rivers are important sources of freshwater and nutrients for the Mediterranean and Black Sea. We present a reconstruction of the spatial and temporal variability of these inputs since the early 1960s, based on a review of available data on water discharge, nutrient concentrations and climatic parameters. Our compilation indicates that Mediterranean rivers suffer from a significant reduction in freshwater discharge, contrary to rivers of the Black Sea, which do not have clear discharge trends. We estimate this reduction to be at least about 20% between 1960 and 2000. It mainly reflects recent climate change, and dam construction may have reduced discharge even further. A similar decrease can also be expected for the fluxes of dissolved silica (Si), strongly controlled by water discharge and potentially reduced by river damming as well. This contrasts with the fluxes of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in Mediterranean and Black Sea rivers, which were strongly enhanced by anthropogenic sources. Their total inputs to the Mediterranean Sea could have increased by a factor of >5. While N still remained at elevated levels in 2000, P only increased up to the 1980–1990s, and then rapidly dropped down to about the initial values of the 1960s. With respect to the marine primary production that can be supported by the riverine nutrient inputs, Mediterranean and the Black Sea rivers were mostly phosphorus limited during the study period. Their anthropogenic nutrient enrichment could only have had a fertilizing effect before the general decline of the P loads. When also considering Si as a limiting element, which is the case for siliceous primary producers such as diatoms, silica limitation may have become a widespread phenomenon in the Mediterranean rivers since the early 1980s. For the Black Sea rivers, this already started the late 1960s. Gross primary production sustained by rivers (PPR) represents only less than 2% of the gross production (PP) in the Mediterranean, and less than 5% in the Black Sea. Possible ecological impacts of the changing river inputs should therefore be visible only in productive coastal areas, such as the Gulf of Lions, where PPR can reach more than two thirds of PP. Reported ecosystem changes both in the Adriatic Sea and the Black Sea are concomitant with major changes in the reconstructed river inputs. Further work combining modelling and data collection is needed to test whether this may also have been the case for coastal ecosystems at other places in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.  相似文献   

5.
The question of whether the Irish Sea is eutrophic is addressed by reviewing the evidence for anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, elevated phytoplankton production and biomass and undesirable disturbance in the context of the EU and OSPAR definitions of eutrophication. Winter concentrations of dissolved available inorganic phosphate (DAIP), nitrogen (DAIN as nitrate and nitrite) and silicate (Si) in coastal waters and concentrations of DAIP and Si in offshore waters of the Irish Sea are elevated relative to winter Celtic Sea shelf break concentrations (0.5 μM DAIP, 7.7 μM DAIN and 2.7 μM Si). Significant, negative nutrient salinity relationships and analysis of the Isle of Man nutrient time-series indicate that the elevated Irish Sea levels of DAIP and DAIN are the result of anthropogenic enrichment with highest concentrations (≈2.0 μM DAIP, 30 μM DAIN and 17 μM Si) measured in near shore eastern Irish Sea waters.  相似文献   

6.
Daily observations of the salinity of the Marsdiep tidal inlet, which connects the Dutch western Wadden Sea with the North Sea, already started over 140 years ago, in 1860. Since the year 2000 the sampling frequency has increased because of the use of electronic sensors. Analysis of these salinity data have revealed variations on time scales from tidal (~ 12 hour), seasonal, inter-annual, and multi-decadal, to centennial. The contributions of the salinity variations in the Marsdiep for these different spectral bands or time scales are all of the order of a standard deviation of 0.5 to 1. The centennial variation, which can be expressed as a 140 year long salinity trend, is related to engineering works on the rivers Rhine and IJssel, which already started in the early 18-th century, and more than doubled the magnitude of the freshwater content of the western Wadden Sea since then. In contrast with this anthropogenic salinity trend, the climatic variability of the precipitation over western Europe, and the connected changes in the Rhine discharge, are mainly responsible for the inter-annual variations in the salinity and/or freshwater content of the western Wadden Sea. Since variations in salinity and freshwater content also reflect variations in the terrigeneous and river influence on the Wadden ecosystem, e.g. via the nutrient content, it can be expected that the ecology of the Wadden Sea also experienced changes on centennial time scales.  相似文献   

7.
The Changjiang (Yangtze River) is known to contribute significantly to the eutrophication that has caused drastic changes to the ecosystem of the East China Sea. However, evidence for historical changes in nutrient concentrations and composition and the consequent effects on the ecosystem in the coastal water is sparse. In this paper we present some long-term data for nutrient concentrations and Si:N:P ratios in the freshwater and the river plume and the long-term response of the ecosystem structure in the river plume. These data reveal increases in the dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate concentrations in the Changjiang freshwater by a factor of five from the1960s to the end of the 1990s and a reduction in dissolved silicate by two thirds over the same period. Concomitantly, an increase in DIN concentration and a reduction in silicate concentration both by a factor of two were observed in the surface water of the Changjiang plume. As an ecological consequence to such nutrient changes, the chlorophyll a concentration increased by a factor of four since the 1980s and harmful algal blooms increased rapidly since 1985 in the Changjiang estuary and adjacent sea areas. The macrozoobenthic biomass decreased sharply from the mid 1980s to the present, suggesting that the Changjiang estuary has been in a high eutrophication state since that time. We predict that, due to the continuously increasing nutrient pressure, the symptoms of eutrophication associated with nutrients will worsen in the Changjiang plume in the near future.  相似文献   

8.
Temporary enhancement of the nutrient concentrations in the coastal area was observed after heavy rain in the central Seto Inland Sea in July 2012. After passage of a stationary front accompanied by heavy rain, the river outflow was enhanced, and low salinity and high nutrient concentrations were detected near the mouths of rivers. The offshore salinity and nutrients increased and decreased, respectively, which suggested that a snapshot event, such as heavy rain, could influence the short-term variation of the coastal marine environmental conditions, such as the salinity and nutrient distributions.  相似文献   

9.
The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea mean salinity to climatic changes of the freshwater supply is analyzed. The average salinity of the Baltic Sea is about 6‰. The low salinity is an effect of a large net freshwater supply and narrow and shallow connections with the North Sea. As a result of mixing in the entrance area, a large portion of the outflowing Baltic Sea water returns with the inflowing salty water and thus lowers the salinity of the Baltic Sea deep-water considerably. This recycling of the Baltic Sea water is a key process determining the salinity of today's Baltic Sea. The sensitivity of this recycling, and thus of the Baltic Sea salinity, to climatic changes in the freshwater supply is analyzed. A simple model is formulated for the variations of the Baltic Sea freshwater content. Historical data of the freshwater supply and the salinity in the Baltic Sea are used in the model to achieve an empirical expression relating variations of the recycling of Baltic Sea water to the variations of the freshwater supply. The recycling is found to be very sensitive to the freshwater supply. We find that an increase of freshwater supply of 30% is the level above which the Baltic Sea would turn into a lake. Recent climate modeling results suggest that river runoff to the Baltic Sea may increase dramatically in the future and thus possibly put the Baltic Sea into a new state.  相似文献   

10.
The dynamics controlling the response of the Baltic Sea to changed atmospheric and hydrologic forcing are reviewed and demonstrated using simple models. The response time for salt is 30 times longer than for heat in the Baltic Sea. In the course of a year, the Baltic Sea renews most of its heat but only about 3% of its salt. On the seasonal scale, surface temperature and ice-coverage are controlled by the atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea as demonstrated by e.g. the strong inter-annual variations in winter temperature and ice-coverage due to variations in dominating wind directions causing alternating mild and cold winters. The response of surface temperature and ice-coverage in the Baltic Sea to modest climate change may therefore be predicted using existing statistics. Due to the long response time in combination with complicated dynamics, the response of the salinity of the Baltic Sea cannot be predicted using existing statistics but has to be computed from mechanistic models. Salinity changes primarily through changes in the two major forcing factors: the supply of freshwater and the low-frequency sea level fluctuations in the Kattegat. The sensitivity of Baltic Sea salinity to changed freshwater supply is investigated using a simple mechanistic steady-state model that includes baroclinic geostrophic outflow from the Kattegat, the major dynamical factor controlling the freshwater content in the Kattegat and thereby the salinity of water flowing into the Baltic Sea. The computed sensitivity of Baltic Sea surface salinity to changes of freshwater supply is similar to earlier published estimates from time-dependent dynamical models with higher resolution. According to the model, the Baltic Sea would become fresh at a mean freshwater supply of about 60 000 m3 s−1, i.e. a 300% increase of the contemporary supply. If the freshwater supply in the different basins increased in proportion to the present-day supply, the Bothnian Bay would become fresh already at a freshwater supply of about 37 000 m3 s−1 and the Bothnian Sea at a supply of about 45 000 m3 s−1. The assumption of baroclinic geostrophic outflow from the Kattegat, crucial for the salinity response of the Baltic Sea to changed freshwater supply, is validated using daily salinity profiles for the period 1931–1977 from lightship Läsö Nord.  相似文献   

11.
Functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem has profoundly changed since the early 1970s under cumulative effects of excessive nutrient enrichment, strong cooling/warming, over-exploitation of pelagic fish stocks, and population outbreak of gelatinous carnivores. Applying a set of criteria to the long-term (1960–2000) ecological time-series data, the present study demonstrates that the Black Sea ecosystem was reorganised during this transition phase in different forms of top-down controlled food web structure through successive regime-shifts of distinct ecological properties. The Secchi disc depth, oxic–anoxic interface zone, dissolved oxygen and hydrogen sulphide concentrations also exhibit abrupt transition between their alternate regimes, and indicate tight coupling between the lower trophic food web structure and the biogeochemical pump in terms of regime-shift events.The first shift, in 1973–1974, marks a switch from large predatory fish to small planktivore fish-controlled system, which persisted until 1989 in the form of increasing small pelagic and phytoplankton biomass and decreasing zooplankton biomass. The increase in phytoplankton biomass is further supported by a bottom-up contribution due to the cumulative response to high anthropogenic nutrient load and the concurrent shift of the physical system to the “cold climate regime” following its ∼20-year persistence in the “warm climate regime”. The end of the 1980s signifies the depletion of small planktivores and the transition to a gelatinous carnivore-controlled system. By the end of the 1990s, small planktivore populations take over control of the system again. Concomitantly, their top-down pressure when combined with diminishing anthropogenic nutrient load and more limited nutrient supply into the surface waters due to stabilizing effects of relatively warm winter conditions switched the “high production” regime of phytoplankton to its background “low production” regime.The Black Sea regime-shifts appear to be sporadic events forced by strong transient decadal perturbations, and therefore differ from the multi-decadal scale cyclical events observed in pelagic ocean ecosystems under low-frequency climatic forcing. The Black Sea observations illustrate that eutrophication and extreme fishery exploitation can indeed induce hysteresis in large marine ecosystems, when they can exert sufficiently strong forcing onto the system. They further illustrate the link between the disruption of the top predators, proliferation of new predator stocks, and regime-shift events. Examples of these features have been reported for some aquatic ecosystems, but are extremely limited for large marine ecosystems.  相似文献   

12.
Lakes Waihola and Waipori are shallow, coastal, tidal lakes that experience wind‐induced sediment resuspension, saline intrusions, and high inputs of nutrients. To determine the influence of externally‐driven, physical factors on spatial and temporal patterns of water quality in the two lakes, meteorological, hydrological, and water quality data were collected over 1 year. Multivariate analyses indicated that wind energy was driving the main water quality gradient in the lakes, which was primarily related to wind‐induced resuspension of lake sediments. The major, seasonally regulated, non‐tidal freshwater inflow was important in determining nutrient and salinity gradients in the lakes. The main nutrient inputs to the system were identified as the regulated, non‐tidal inflow (the upper Waipori River) and the tidal inflow (lower Waipori River). The impact of water quality gradients on zooplankton community structure in the lakes was assessed by canonical multivariate methods. Salinity gradients, caused by seasonal saltwater intrusions, were strongly related to zooplankton community structure in the lakes. Nutrient gradients (indicative of trophic state) were also related to zooplankton community structure. Although wind‐induced sediment resuspension had the largest impact on water quality in the lakes, it had little impact on the zooplankton community structure in either lake. The relationships between water quality and zooplankton community structure were confounded in Lake Waipori because of its very short hydraulic residence time (annual mean =1.9 days). Zooplankton community structure was resilient to short‐term changes in suspended particulate matter concentrations but not to seasonal changes in salinity. The results of this study support others which have shown impacts of even relatively small variations in salinity on the structure of zooplankton communities. This highlights the vulnerability of zooplankton communities in coastal lakes and wetlands to increasing salinity resulting from sea level rise and global climate change.  相似文献   

13.
Based on the comprehensive collection of the field observed salinity of the Bohai Sea (BHS) and the northern Huanghai Sea (NHS) from the 1950s to the present,the patterns of 10-years-averaged salinity at the different layers in the recent five decades (the 1950s,the 1960s,the 1970s,the 1980s and the 1990s) are obtained by the spatial-temporal interpolation technique with the scrupulous data quality control in this study.Then,by combining the spatial-temporal interpolation technique with successive correction method,the annual distributions of salinity both in the BHS and in the NHS are obtained as well.The data analyses indicate that the overall salinity in the BHS and the NHS increases from the 1960s till the present,with the increase of annual mean salinity of 0.04 psu from the 1950s,and the maximum increase rate of salinity is about 0.14 psu/a in the Bohai Bay.The high salinity tongue extended significantly from the NHS into the BHS.The intensified eastern wind field is related to the western intrusion of the NHS warm current,which probably leads to the moving forward of the high salinity water mass into the BHS.However,it is rather different from the salinity distribution characteristics between the 1950s and the 1960s.The extensive precipitation in the 1960s could lead to an increase in the discharge of the Huanghe River,which might result in the decrease of salinity in the BHS.But the salinity isoline of 32 in the NHS still extended significantly into the BHS in the 1960s.Since the 1980s,the patterns of salinity distribution have changed thoroughly.The salinity in the central area of the BHS was low,while the salinity in the Bohai Bay and the Liaodong Bay was higher than the other regions with its horizontal salinity gradient decreasing in the 1980s.The Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF) is also conducted to study the interannual salinity variability of the BHS and the NHS.The correlation coefficient between the time coefficient series of the main mode and the Huanghe River discharge can reach -64.57%.It can be concluded that salinity variation of the BHS and the NHS has strong negative correlation with the Huanghe River discharge.  相似文献   

14.
We examined fossil pigments in a 210Pb-dated sediment core to document the temporal variations in phytoplankton biomass over the past 150 years in a semi-enclosed bay, Beppu Bay, in the western Seto Inland Sea, Japan. The flux of fossil pigments was used as an index of phytoplankton biomass, which we reconstructed after removing the effect of post-burial degradation on the concentrations of fossil pigments. The flux doubled from the 1960s to the early 1970s, decreased or remained stable in the early 1980s, and increased again from the late 1980s to the early 1990s. The first increase in phytoplankton biomass during the 1960s was likely caused by eutrophication due to an increase in terrestrial nutrient fluxes from watersheds. The decreasing phytoplankton biomass in the early 1980s was likely related to the establishment of a sewage treatment system that reduced the terrestrial nutrient fluxes to the sea. However, the terrestrial nutrient fluxes could not explain the second increase from the late 1980s to the early 1990s. Intensification of the influx of nutrients from the shelf slope to the sea was likely the cause of the second increase in phytoplankton biomass. This is supported by the inverse relationship between phytoplankton biomass and sea level at the shelf slope, the latter being an index of the intensity of the influx of oceanic nutrients from the shelf slope to the sea. The supply of oceanic nutrients may be therefore a critical factor in the determination of primary production in the western Seto Inland Sea.  相似文献   

15.
Observations of deep ocean temperature and salinity in the Labrador and Greenland Seas indicate that there is negative correlation between the activities of deep convection in these two sites. A previous study suggests that this negative correlation is controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we discuss this deep convection seesaw by using a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model. In this simulation, the deep convection is realistically simulated in both the Labrador and Greenland Seas and their negative correlation is also recognized. Regression of sea level pressure to wintertime mixed layer depth in the Labrador Sea reveals strong correlation between the convection and the NAO as previous studies suggest, but a significant portion of their variability is not correlated. On the other hand, the convection in the Greenland Sea is not directly related to the NAO, and its variability is in phase with changes in the freshwater budget in the GIN Seas. The deep convection seesaw found in the model is controlled by freshwater transport through the Denmark Strait. When this transport is larger, more freshwater flows to the Labrador Sea and less to the Greenland Sea. This leads to lower upper-ocean surface salinity in the Labrador Sea and higher salinity in the Greenland Sea, which produces negative correlation between these two deep convective activities. The deep convection seesaw observed in the recent decades could be interpreted as induced by the changes in the freshwater transport through the Denmark Strait, whose role has not been discussed so far.  相似文献   

16.
Phytoplankton productivity and community structure in marginal seas have been altered significantly during the past three decades, but it is still a challenge to distinguish the forcing mechanisms between climate change and anthropogenic activities. High time-resolution biomarker records of two 210Pb-dated sediment cores(#34: 28.5°N, 122.272°E; CJ12-1269: 28.861 9°N, 122.515 3°E) from the Min-Zhe coastal mud area were compared to reveal changes of phytoplankton productivity and community structure over the past 100 years. Phytoplankton productivity started to increase gradually from the 1970 s and increased rapidly after the late 1990 s at Site #34; and it started to increase gradually from the middle 1960 s and increased rapidly after the late 1980 s at Site CJ12-1269. Productivity of Core CJ12-1269 was higher than that of Core #34. Phytoplankton community structure variations displayed opposite patterns in the two cores. The decreasing D/B(dinosterol/brassicasterol) ratio of Core #34 since the 1960 s revealed increased diatom contribution to total productivity. In contrast, the increasing D/B ratio of Core CJ12-1269 since the 1950 s indicated increased dinoflagellate contribution to total productivity. Both the productivity increase and the increased dinoflagellate contribution in Core CJ12-1269 since the 1950–1960s were mainly caused by anthropogenic activities, as the location was closer to the Changjiang River Estuary with higher nutrient concentration and decreasing Si/N ratios. However, increased diatom contribution in Core #34 is proposed to be caused by increased coastal upwelling, with higher nutrient concentration and higher Si/N ratios.  相似文献   

17.
分析了2012年春季渤海中部及其邻近海域32个站点叶绿素a和环境因子的空间分布特征及其相互关系。结果发现:渤海中部靠近黄河口邻近水域相对于其他水域,呈现出相对较高的水温和较低的盐度,这与黄河淡水输入以及近岸水深相对较浅有密切关系。营养盐浓度在空间分布上表现为黄河口附近海域较高,在垂直分布上表现为中、底层高于表层,显示出黄河水输入与沉积物营养盐再释放的影响;此外,营养盐浓度与结构显示,渤海海域存在明显的磷和硅限制,磷限制尤其严重。叶绿素a浓度的空间分布显示,表层叶绿素a浓度的高值区出现在渤海湾湾口处,而中层与底层的叶绿素a浓度高值区出现在渤海中部。主成分分析结果表明,磷酸盐和温度是影响表层叶绿素a浓度的重要因素,而中、底层叶绿素a浓度主要受磷酸盐的影响。  相似文献   

18.
The intermediate water masses in the eastern Atlantic Ocean between 31°N and 53°N were studied by analysis of the distributions of potential temperature, salinity, dissolved nutrients and oxygen. Sub-surface salinity minima are encountered everywhere in the area. At the northern and southern boundary they are connected with the presence of Sub-Arctic Intermediate Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water, respectively, but towards the European ocean margin the sub-surface salinity minima shift to shallower density levels. The sub-surface salinity minima observed west of the Iberian Peninsula represent a water mass formed by winter convection in the Porcupine Sea Bight and the northern Bay of Biscay. These minima gain salt by diapycnal mixing with the underlying Mediterranean Sea Outflow water and with the overlying permanent thermocline. The core of Antarctic Intermediate Water appears to contribute to the formation of Mediterranean Sea Outflow Water since it becomes entrained into the overflow near Gibraltar. This entrainment gives rise to an enhanced concentration of the nutrients in the Mediterranean water in the North Atlantic. The deep salinity minimum, due to the presence of Labrador Sea Water, is restricted mainly to the Porcupine Abyssal Plain. In the Bay of Biscay this water type is strongly modified by enhanced diapycnal mixing near the continental slope. At all intermediate levels the continental slope in the Bay of Biscay seems to be a focal point for water mass modification by diapycnal mixing. Below the core of the Mediterranean Sea Outflow Water the Labrador Sea Water is also strongly modified. Its salinity is strongly enhanced by diapycnal mixing with the overlying core of Mediterranean Sea Outflow Water. An analysis of the oxygen and nutrient data indicates that the large spatial concentration differences at the level of the Labrador Sea Water are caused mainly by ageing of the water. The youngest water is observed at 52°N, and, especially in the Bay of Biscay and off south-west Portugal, the water at levels of about 1700 dbar are strongly enriched in nutrients and depleted in oxygen.  相似文献   

19.
Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r2 > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.  相似文献   

20.
The ecosystem model ERSEM II has been used to hindcast the development of the ecosystem of the North Sea during the years 1955 to 1993. The simulation was driven by the box-aggregated output from a general circulation model of the North Sea of corresponding duration; radiation, river inputs, atmospheric input and boundary conditions at the borders to the Atlantic Ocean and to the Baltic Sea were applied as realistically as possible. The general features of the eutrophication process are reproduced in the hindcast: the coastal areas show strong changes in nutrient concentrations in the hindcast as well as in the observations. Eutrophication not only shows up in the nutrient concentrations, but also in primary production. The simulated spatial distributions of phosphate, nitrate and primary production compare well with the observed ones. In addition, the hindcast simulates considerable trend-like changes of the nutrients in the southern part of the North Sea, where the nutrients are transported from the continental coastal strip to the southern central North Sea. The line from the river Humber to southern Norway separates the region of noticeable anthropogenic influence of riverine and atmospheric input from the northern area, which is mainly influenced by the Atlantic nutrient inflow. The observed annual cycles in the central and northern North Sea are quite well reproduced by the hindcast. The comparison of the hindcast with the long-term observations at two sites in the continental coastal zone of the North Sea shows that the long-term behaviour of phosphate, nitrate and silicate is simulated well. Primary production is increased in summers during the main period of eutrophication, 1975 to 1989, in the hindcast and in the observations. The flagellates at Helgoland, however, experience much more pronounced annual cycles with much less interannual variability in the hindcast than in the observations.  相似文献   

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