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1.
A term ofclimate-related risk ofcrop losses due to adverse hydrometeorological conditions is introduced. The level of territory vulnerability in terms ofcrop production is defined by the relationship between the yield of a given crop and the bioclimatic potential of a territory. The estimates of vulnerability and crop failure risks for some grain crops are presented for the period of 1994–2013. Average for Russia crop failure risk for spring and winter wheat computed taking into account the cultivated areas is 12.5 and 10.6%, respectively. It is revealed that the most parts of the Southern and Volga federal districts are located in the high-risk zone. Areas ofrelatively low risks in terms ofcrop failure for spring and winter wheat are the Siberian and Central federal districts. 相似文献
2.
河南省春季气候变化及其对小麦产量构成要素的影响 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
目前有关气候变化及其对农作物产量影响的研究较多,而对产量构成要素的影响研究相对较少。本文利用自然正交函数(EOF)分解、相关分析、趋势倾向率分析等方法对河南省近30多年的气候和近20多年的小麦产量构成三要素———穗数、粒数、粒重进行了时空变化特征分析,在此基础上分析了春季气候变化对小麦产量及其构成要素的影响。结果表明:全省春季平均气温、降水量、日照时数变化具有比较好的空间一致性,平均气温呈比较明显的上升趋势,降水呈不太明显的下降趋势,日照呈一定的下降趋势;小麦粒重和产量变化具有较好的空间一致性,而穗数、粒数则具有反位相空间变化特征,穗数、粒重及产量均呈明显的上升趋势,粒数呈抛物线变化趋势,其中1991年后呈明显上升趋势;平均气温的升温变化趋势有利于小麦粒重、穗数和最终产量的提高,但不利于粒数增加;降水变化趋势不利于粒重提高,对其他产量构成要素影响不明显;日照的变化对产量及各构成要素影响不明显。 相似文献
3.
Yanmin Yang De Li Liu Muhuddin Rajin Anwar Heping Zuo Yonghui Yang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(3-4):391-410
Conceptions encompassing climate change are irreversible rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, increased temperature, and changes in rainfall both in spatial- and temporal-scales worldwide. This will have a major impact on wheat production, particularly if crops are frequently exposed to a sequence, frequency, and intensity of specific weather events like high temperature during growth period. However, the process of wheat response to climate change is complex and compounded by interactions among atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variables, soil, nutrition, and agronomic management. In this study, we use the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model, driven by statistically downscaled climate projections of 18 global circulation models (GCMs) under the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 CO2 emission scenario to examine impact on future wheat yields across key wheat growing regions considering different soil types in New South Wales (NSW) of Australia. The response of wheat yield, yield components, and phenology vary across sites and soil types, but yield is closely related to plant available water capacity (PAWC). Results show a decreasing yield trend during the period of 2021–2040 compared to the baseline period of 1961–1990. Across different wheat-growing regions in NSW, grain yield difference in the future period (2021–2040) over the baseline (1961–1990) varies from +3.4 to ?14.7 %, and in most sites, grain number is decreased, while grain size is increased in future climate. Reduction of wheat yield is mainly due to shorter growth duration, where average flowering and maturing time are advanced by an average of 11 and 12 days, respectively. In general, larger negative impacts of climate change are exhibited in those sites with higher PAWC. Current wheat cultivars with shorter growing season properties are viable in the future climate, but breading for early sowing wheat varieties with longer growing duration will be a desirable adaptation strategy for mitigating the impact of changing climate on wheat yield. 相似文献
4.
Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Productivity of Corn and Winter Wheat in Their Primary United States Growing Regions 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
We calculate the impacts of climate effects inferred from three atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) at three levels of climate change severity associated with change in global mean temperature (GMT) of 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0 °C and three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) – 365 (no CO2 fertilization effect), 560 and 750 ppm – on the potential production of dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and corn (Zea mays L.) for the primary (current) U.S. growing regions of each crop. This analysis is a subset of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) which has the goal of integrating the linkages and feedbacks among human activities and resulting greenhouse gas emissions, changes in atmospheric composition and resulting climate change, and impacts on terrestrial systems. A set of representative farms was designed for each of the primary production regions studied and the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) was used to simulate crop response to climate change. The GCMs applied were the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the United Kingdom Meteorological Transient (UKTR) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorological Research Center (BMRC), each regionalized by means of a scenario generator (SCENGEN). The GISS scenarios have the least impact on corn and wheat production, reducing national potential production for corn by 6% and wheat by 7% at a GMT of 2.5 °C and no CO2 fertilization effect; the UKTR scenario had the most severe impact on wheat, reducing production by 18% under the same conditions; BMRC had the greatest negative impact on corn, reducing production by 20%. A GMT increase of 1.0°C marginally decreased corn and wheat production. Increasing GMT had a detrimental impact on both corn and wheat production, with wheat production suffering the greatest losses. Decreases for wheat production at GMT 5.0 and [CO2] = 365 ppm range from 36% for the GISS to 76% for the UKTR scenario. Increases in atmospheric [CO2] had a positive impact on both corn and wheat production. AT GMT 1.0, an increase in [CO2] to 560 ppm resulted in a net increase in corn and wheat production above baseline levels (from 18 to 29% for wheat and 2 to 5% for corn). Increases in [CO2] help to offset yield reductions at higher GMT levels; in most cases, however, these increases are not sufficient to return crop production to baseline levels. 相似文献
5.
采用部门间影响模式比较计划（ISI-MIP）的气候模式,确定全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃出现的时间,并结合农业技术转移决策支持系统（DSSAT）模型模拟小麦的产量,最终选取4套数据对比研究中国小麦区温度和降水变化特征以及各区域小麦产量变化趋势,综合评价了不同升温情景对中国小麦产量的影响。结果表明：(1)在全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下,我国小麦生育期内温度相对于工业革命前分别升高1.17℃和1.81℃。两种升温情景下我国春麦区升温幅度大于冬麦区升温幅度。春麦区中新疆春麦区升温幅度最大,西北春麦区升温幅度最小;冬麦区中温度变化最大和最小的麦区分别为西南冬麦区和黄淮冬麦区。(2)在全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下,我国小麦生育期内降水相对于历史时段(1986—2005年)分别增加9.1%和11.3%。从各麦区来看,两种升温情景下春麦区降水增加幅度略大于冬麦区的增加幅度。所有麦区中只有新疆春麦区降水低于历史时段降水。春麦区降水增加幅度最大的麦区为北部春麦区。冬麦区中降水增加较大的麦区为北部冬麦区和黄淮冬麦区,降水增加较小的麦区为华南冬麦区和西南冬麦区。(3)两种升温情景下,我国小麦单产相对于历史时段(1986—2005年)平均减产分别为5.2%和4.6%,两种升温情景对中国小麦产量并没有显著的差异。在全球升温大背景下我国春小麦主要呈现增产趋势,冬小麦主要呈现减产趋势。减产幅度较大的麦区为华南冬麦区和青藏春麦区,增产幅度最大的麦区为西北春麦区。从各麦区产量减产面积比例上看,我国各麦区减产面积所占比例趋势为从北向南由多变少再变多,其中华南冬麦区减产面积所占比例最大,北部冬麦区最小。 相似文献
6.
Winter wheat is one of China’s most important staple food crops, and its production is strongly influenced by weather, especially droughts. As a result, the impact of drought on the production of winter wheat is associated with the food security of China. Simulations of future climate for scenarios A2 and A1B provided by GFDL-CM2, MPI_ECHAM5, MRI_CGCM2, NCAR_CCSM3, and UKMO_HADCM3 during 2001-2100 are used to project the influence of drought on winter wheat yields in North China. Winter wheat yields are simulated using the crop model WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudies). Future changes in temperature and precipitation are analyzed. Temperature is projected to increase by 3.9-5.5 for scenario A2 and by 2.9-5.1 for scenario A1B, with fairly large interannual variability. Mean precipitation during the growing season is projected to increase by 16.7 and 8.6 mm (10 yr)-1 , with spring precipitation increasing by 9.3 and 4.8 mm (10 yr)-1 from 2012-2100 for scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. For the next 10-30 years (2012-2040), neither the growing season precipitation nor the spring precipitation over North China is projected to increase by either scenario. Assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices, the influence of drought induced by short rain on winter wheat yields in North China is simulated using the WOFOST crop model. The drought index is projected to decrease by 9.7% according to scenario A2 and by 10.3% according to scenario A1B during 2012-2100. This indicates that the drought influence on winter wheat yields may be relieved over that period by projected increases in rain and temperature as well as changes in the growth stage of winter wheat. However, drought may be more severe in the near future, as indicated by the results for the next 10-30 years. 相似文献
7.
Theodore G. Shepherd Emily Boyd Raphael A. Calel Sandra C. Chapman Suraje Dessai Ioana M. Dima-West Hayley J. Fowler Rachel James Douglas Maraun Olivia Martius Catherine A. Senior Adam H. Sobel David A. Stainforth Simon F. B. Tett Kevin E. Trenberth Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk Nicholas W. Watkins Dimitri A. Zenghelis 《Climatic change》2018,147(3-4):555-569
Investigating the relationships between climate extremes and crop yield can help us understand how unfavourable climatic conditions affect crop production. In this study, two statistical models, multiple linear regression and random forest, were used to identify rainfall extremes indices affecting wheat yield in three different regions of the New South Wales wheat belt. The results show that the random forest model explained 41–67% of the year-to-year yield variation, whereas the multiple linear regression model explained 34–58%. In the two models, 3-month timescale standardized precipitation index of Jun.–Aug. (SPIJJA), Sep.–Nov. (SPISON), and consecutive dry days (CDDs) were identified as the three most important indices which can explain yield variability for most of the wheat belt. Our results indicated that the inter-annual variability of rainfall in winter and spring was largely responsible for wheat yield variation, and pre-growing season rainfall played a secondary role. Frequent shortages of rainfall posed a greater threat to crop growth than excessive rainfall in eastern Australia. We concluded that the comparison between multiple linear regression and machine learning algorithm proposed in the present study would be useful to provide robust prediction of yields and new insights of the effects of various rainfall extremes, when suitable climate and yield datasets are available. 相似文献
8.
O. D. Sirotenko G. V. Gruza E. Ya. Rankova E. V. Abashina V. N. Pavlova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2007,32(8):538-546
Climate changes observed in recent decades are analyzed, and the respective climate-related tendencies of changes in heat supply, moistening, and productivity of the agrosphere that determine the natural resourse of potential Russia are determined. The grain crop yield trends are used additionally as climate change indicators. It is shown that climate changes observed in the last 30 years promote the increase in potential agriculture productivity in most of the Russian Federation, where not less than 85% of agricultural products are produced. At the same time, the increase in climate aridity is observed in several regions of Siberia and Chernozem Center, which results in a reduced productivity of agriculture. 相似文献
9.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the trends and variability in extreme temperature indices and its impact on rice–wheat productivity over two districts of Bihar, India, which is part of the middle Indo-Gangetic Basin. Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for detection of trend and Sen slope was determined to quantify the magnitude of such trends. We have analyzed 10 extreme temperature indices for monthly and seasonally. The influence of extreme temperature indices on rice–wheat productivity was determined using correlation analysis. As far as Patna is concerned, if the number of cool days during September ≥10, the rice productivity will increase due to the availability of sufficient duration to fill up the grain. However, higher warm days during all the months except June will affect the productivity. A significant negative correlation was noticed between maximum value of minimum temperature during September and rice productivity. Highly significant positive correlation was noticed between number of cool days during September with rice productivity while it was highly significant negative correlation in the case of number of warm days during the same month. As far as Samastipur is concerned, a negative correlation was noticed between wheat productivity and maximum value of maximum temperature (TXx) during February, but not statistically significant. The higher temperature may affect the kernel weight and thereby yield. It is seen that a critical value of TXx ≥29.2 °C will be harmful to wheat crop during February. A significant positive correlation of number of cool nights with wheat productivity also supports the above relationship. The critical values of extreme temperature indices during rice and wheat growing months provide an indicator to assess the vulnerability of rice–wheat productivity to temperature for Patna and Samastipur districts and there is a need to prepare an adaptive strategy and also develop thermo-insensitive rice–wheat high yielding varieties suitable for this region to sustain rice–wheat productivity under projected climate change situation. 相似文献
10.
Climate change is threatening global food production and could potentially exacerbate food insecurity in many parts of the world. China is the second largest maize producer. Variations in maize yields in China are likely to have major implications for food security in the world. Based on longitudinal data of 4861 households collected annually between 2004 and 2010, we assess the impact of weather variations on maize yields in the two main producing regions in China, the Northern spring maize zone and the Yellow-Huai Valley summer maize zone. We also explore the role of adaptation, by estimating the response of Chinese farmers in both regions, in particular in terms of income diversification. With the use of household and time fixed effects, our estimates relate within-household variations in household outcomes (maize yields, net income, land and input use) to within-location variations in weather conditions. Temperature, drought, wet conditions, and precipitations have detrimental effects on maize yields in the two maize zones. The impact is stronger in the Northern spring maize zone where one standard deviation in temperature and drought conditions decreases maize yields by 1.4% and 2.5%, respectively. Nonetheless, such impact does not seem to translate into a significant fall in total net income. Adaptation seems to be key in explaining such a contrast in the Northern spring maize zone where the largest impact is estimated. On the contrary, we find a lower impact in the other region, the Yellow-Huai Valley summer maize zone but such impact is likely to intensify. The lack of adaptation observed in that region results into detrimental impacts on net farm and total income. Enhancing adaptative behaviors among Chinese farmers even further is likely to be key to future food security in China and in the rest of the world. 相似文献
11.
海拔2800m的山区地膜春小麦试验研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
艾尼瓦尔·依沙木丁 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2008,2(4):49-51
2006年,在海拔2800m以上的和田县喀什塔什乡科克阿依村进行地膜穴播春小麦与露地春小麦栽培对比试验。地膜覆盖技术改善了小麦生物性状,分蘖数和成穗率大大提高,千粒重也有所增加。除4月15日播种的外,株高、结实小穗数、穗粒数都比露地播种小麦增加,A、B、C三处理比对照籽粒产量分别增加75．5％、82．0％和52.3％,增产效果非常明显。能有效解决低温半干旱山区春小麦生产中存在的粗、旱、冻等突出问题,具有较好的保墒蓄水、增温保温效能,有明显的增产增收作用,是小麦生产再上台阶的一项有力措施,值得在南疆海拔2800m以上的山区大力推广应用。 相似文献
12.
不同品性冬小麦籽粒灌浆特性研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
为揭示冬小麦干物质积累过程的动态变化,利用不同品种冬小麦分期播种的灌浆速率资料,建立了Logistic模型,定量分析了不同播期条件下不同品性冬小麦的灌浆特性,并探讨了冬小麦灌浆特性对气象因子的响应情况。结果表明,籽粒灌浆质量与开花后天数的关系符合Logistic生长曲线方程。基于Logistic模型求算的各次级参数能够较好地表征冬小麦籽粒灌浆特性,半冬性品种较春性品种灌浆高峰期出现时间早;春性品种的粒重渐增期和粒重快增期持续时间一般长于半冬性品种的;半冬性品种的平均活跃灌浆期较春性品种的短;早播和正常播种条件下,春性品种最大和平均灌浆速率均高于半冬性品种的,而迟播条件下春性品种最大和平均灌浆速率均低于半冬性品种的,适期晚播更利于春性品种灌浆和千粒重增加。灌浆特性的变异系数分布总体呈春性品种大于半冬性品种的,表明播期对春性品种的影响更大。不同籽粒灌浆特性对气象因子的响应不同,其中孕穗—成熟期内的平均气温、孕穗—乳熟期内的降水量、播种—乳熟期内的日照时数与冬小麦灌浆特性相关密切,基于灌浆特性与气象因子建立的逐步回归方程决定系数为0.507～0.875,均通过了0.01的显著性检验。 相似文献
13.
During this century global warming will lead to changes in global weather and climate, affecting many aspects of our environment. Agriculture is the sector of the United States economy most likely to be directly impacted by climatic changes. We have examined potential changes in dryland agriculture (Part 3) and in water resources necessary for crop production (Part 4) in response to a set of climate change scenarios. In this paper we assess to what extent, under these same scenarios, water supplies will be sufficient to meet the irrigation requirement of major grain crops in the US. In addition, we assess the overall impacts of changes in water supply on national grain production. We apply the 12 climate change scenarios described in Part 1 to the water resources and crop growth simulation models described in Part 2 for the conterminous United States. Drawing on data from Parts 3 and 4 we calculate what the aggregate national production would be in those regions in which grain crops are currently produced by applying irrigation where needed and water supplies allow. The total amount of irrigation water applied to crops declines under all climate change scenarios employed in this study. Under certain of the scenarios and in particular regions, precipitation decreases so much that water supplies are too limited; in other regions precipitation becomes so plentiful that little value is derived from irrigation. Nationwide grain crop production is greater when irrigation is applied as needed. Under irrigation, less corn and soybeans are produced under most of the climate change scenarios than is produced under baseline climate conditions. Winter wheat production under irrigation responds significantly to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2] and appears likely to increase under climate change. 相似文献
14.
山东省主要粮食作物气候生产潜力时空变化特征 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
根据山东省1961-2008年的气象资料,利用逐级订正法计算了山东省冬小麦和夏玉米等主要粮食作物的气候生产潜力,并进一步采用经验正交函数分解方法,探讨了其时空变化特征.结果表明:山东省冬小麦及夏玉米的气候生产潜力存在有明显的年际波动和空间差异,其中冬小麦优、劣年景气候生产潜力相差3～9倍,夏玉米相对较小,为2～3倍;全省冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力的高值区位于水热条件匹配较好的鲁南地区,低值区在半岛东部沿海地区;冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力与实际单产的年际变化基本一致,山东省粮食产量,特别是夏玉米产量的年际波动受作物生长期间气候条件影响较大;全省冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力在空间上具有较好的一致性,区域互补性较差. 相似文献
15.
该文分析了云南近50年气候生产力变化特征以及气候变化对农业生产的影响.重点对气温、降水与小麦、水稻产量形成的关系进行了研究, 结果表明12月至翌年2月的降水是小麦增减产的关键因子, ≥10 ℃的积温比降水更有利于水稻生产.同时针对制约农业增产的重要气象灾害发生时期进行诊断, 发现小春作物的主要气象灾害是1~2月的冬旱和2~4月的倒春寒, 大春作物的主要气象灾害是5月干旱和7~8月的低温冷害. 相似文献
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This study aims to evaluate the performance of two mainstream downscaling techniques: statistical and dynamical downscaling and to compare the differences in their projection of future climate change and the resultant impact on wheat crop yields for three locations across New South Wales, Australia. Bureau of Meteorology statistically- and CSIRO dynamically-downscaled climate, derived or driven by the CSIRO Mk 3.5 coupled general circulation model, were firstly evaluated against observed climate data for the period 1980–1999. Future climate projections derived from the two downscaling approaches for the period centred on 2055 were then compared. A stochastic weather generator, LARS-WG, was used in this study to derive monthly climate changes and to construct climate change scenarios. The Agricultural Production System sIMulator-Wheat model was then combined with the constructed climate change scenarios to quantify the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield. Statistical results show that (1) in terms of reproducing the past climate, statistical downscaling performed better over dynamical downscaling in most of the cases including climate variables, their mean, variance and distribution, and study locations, (2) there is significant difference between the two downscaling techniques in projected future climate change except the mean value of rainfall across the three locations for most of the months; and (3) there is significant difference in projected wheat grain yields between the two downscaling techniques at two of the three locations. 相似文献
18.
本文通过试验研究,初步肯定了全生育期地膜覆盖对水地春小麦的节水增产效果。初步看出其节水增产的机理为:地膜覆盖的增(地)温和保墒作用,增加了春小麦幼苗期的干物质积累和叶面积,促进了根系的生长发育;并使出苗提早,促进延长了穗分化,起到增粒作用;同时使千粒重也有所增加,从而达到增产;由于保墒作用及头水的推迟,减少了灌溉定额和灌溉次数及耗水量,因此具有明显的节水效果。通过对两年试验所建立的回归模型进行计算机选优,得出了节水、节种、增产的优化栽培措施组合为:头水叶龄4～4.5叶,二水时期为开花,全生育期灌水2次,灌溉定额155～200方/亩,播种23～32万粒/亩,施氮10公斤左右,氮磷比1∶0.5～0.7,但对地膜复盖技术还需继续研究,继续提高其经济效益,同时上列措施组合尚待进一步完善和经生产验证。 相似文献
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20.
甘肃省河西内陆河径流量对河西地区春小麦产量的影响 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
利用甘肃省河西地区3条主要内陆河昌马河、黑河、西营河流量以及酒泉、张掖、武威3个地区的春小麦产量资料,分析了甘肃省河西地区内陆河流量对河西地区春小麦产量的影响。结果表明：河西的粮食产量除了受灌溉水利发展、农业技术和优良品种等生产力水平提高,呈现波动上升趋势外,还受到灌溉水源的影响。春季径流的差异会导致春小麦单产的明显年际波动。年径流短期波动对产量影响较小,但径流长期波动的影响要大于短期波动。特别是春季径流的长期趋势决定着调节水库的蓄水量多寡,这在一定程度上反映出目前的农业生产仍受气候变化的影响。 相似文献