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1.
For centuries, inhabitants of coastal areas have suffered from the effects of tsunamis. Turkey, with a coastline of 8333 km, has experienced many tsunamis.Historical records reveal that, during the observation period over 3000 years, the coastal and surrounding areas of Turkey have been affected by more than ninety tsunamis. These tended to cluster around the Marmara Sea, the city of Istanbul and the gulfs of Izmit, Izmir, Fethiye and Iskenderun. Each of the tsunami occurrences surveyed in this paper deserves further individual study. The most extensive available information concerns the tsunamis associated with the Istanbul Earthquakes of 1509 and 1894, the Eastern Marmara Earthquake in 1963 and that of Izmit in 1999,which disturbed the Marmara Sea; the Earthquake of 1939 in Erzincan ineastern Anatolia; and the 1968 Bartn Earthquake, which affected Fatsa and Amasra on the Black Sea. In addition to these, it is known that a tsunami occurred in 1598 on the shores of the Black Sea in connection with an earthquake at Amasya in northern Anatolia. 相似文献
2.
Turkey was struck by two major events on 17 August and 12 November 1999, named Izmit (M w = 7.4) and Düzce (M w = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. Rubble mound breakwaters in Izmit Bay experienced little damage, as forecasted by the new risk assessment model in which tsunami occurrence risk was included in the damage estimations. In order to determine the occurrence probability of structural damage under design conditions, including the environmental loading parameters of tsunami and storm waves, tidal range and storm surge, the Conditional Expections Monte Carlo simulation was applied in the risk assessment model developed in this study for the Esenköy Fishery Harbour, Turkey. A tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves for the main breakwater of the harbour, however, in places with great seismic activity, the tsunami risk should be important depending on the occurrence probability and magnitude of the tsunami. 相似文献
3.
Fatih Mosque and its Kulliye (complex) are one of the most important historical monuments in Istanbul. Since it has been built between 1463 and 1470, Fatih Mosque had been subjected to nine strong earthquakes and suffered various degrees of structural damage at every case, including the latest August 17, 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake (Mw = 7.4, epicentral distance approximately 100 km). Recently, a project has been initiated first to study the possible causes of earthquake damage and then develop retrofitting and strengthening techniques to protect this invaluable monument from further damages in the future earthquakes. As part of this investigation, local site soil conditions had been determined and site behavior during earthquakes had been studied in detail. In this paper, the results of 1-D site response analysis, which included convolution and deconvolution analyses utilizing the strong ground motions recorded during the August 17, 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake are presented. The results of the analyses had demonstrated the considerable degree of site amplification, compatible with the recorded motions and the damage suffered. The expected site behavior during a probable future earthquake is also studied using a site specific simulated bedrock motion, and earthquake parameters to be used in dynamic structural analysis are estimated. 相似文献
4.
Tatiana K PineginaJoanne Bourgeois Lilia I BazanovaIvan V Melekestsev Olga A Braitseva 《Quaternary Research》2003,59(1):36-47
Deposits from as many as 50 large tsunamis during the last 7000 years are preserved on the Pacific coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula near the mouth of the Zhupanova River, southern Kronotskiy Bay. These deposits are dated and correlated using Holocene marker tephra layers. The combined, preserved record of tsunami deposits and of numerous marker tephras on Kamchatka offers an unprecedented opportunity to study tsunami frequency. For example, from the stratigraphy along southern Kronotskiy Bay, we estimate frequency of large tsunamis (>5 m runup). In the last 3000 years, the minimum frequency is about one large tsunami per 100 years, and the maximum about one large tsunami per 30 years; the latter frequency occurred from about 0 to 1000 A.D. This time interval corresponds to a period of increased seismicity and volcanic activity that appears to be recorded in many places on the Kamchatka Peninsula. 相似文献
5.
Stefano Tinti 《Natural Hazards》1991,4(2-3):267-283
A method for the evaluation of tsunami potential in the seas surrounding Italy is presented. A major difficulty for performing reliable estimates of tsunami occurrence is that the existing tsunami catalog for Italy includes a small number of cases. This is due partly to the catalog incompleteness, strangely more pronounced in our century, and partly to the relative infrequency of tsunamis along the Italian seas. Evaluation of tsunami activity is therefore deduced by complementing the tsunami catalog data with data on seismicity that are by far more abundant and reliable. Analysis of seismicity and assessment of earthquake rate in coastal and submarine regions form the basis of the present method to perform tsunami potential estimates for Italy. One essential limitation of the method is that only tsunamis of seismic origin are taken into account, which leads to an underestimation of the tsunami potential. Since tsunamis generated by earthquakes are much more frequent than events produced by slumps or volcanic eruptions, the underestimation is not dramatic and very likely affects only a limited portion of the Italian coasts. In the present application of the method, eight separate regions have been considered that together cover all the coasts of Italy. In each region, seismicity has been independently examined and the earthquake potential has been calculated in small 20 × 20 cells. Then, on the basis of suitable assumptions, tsunami potential has been evaluated in each cell. According to this study, the Italian coasts that are the most exposed to the attacks of locally generated tsunamis are to be found in the Messina Straits, in Tyrrhenian coasts of Calabria, in the Ionian Sicilian coasts around Catania, and in the Gargano promontory in the Southern Adriatic Sea. Furthermore, this study confirms that the Northern Adriatic Sea has a low level of tsunami potential, in agreement with recent studies emphasizing that the large historical events concerning this region included in the first versions of the Italian tsunami catalog are largely overestimated and must be decreased. 相似文献
6.
Emile A. Okal 《Natural Hazards》1988,1(1):67-96
We present a review of the influence of various parameters of the sources of major oceanic earthquakes on the amplitude of tsunamis at transoceanic distances. We base our computations on the normal mode formalism, applied to realistic Earth models, but interpret our principal results in the simpler framework of Haskell theory in the case of a water layer over a Poisson half-space. Our results show that source depth and focal geometry play only a limited role in controlling the amplitude of the tsunami; their combined influence reaches at most 1 order of magnitude down to a depth of 150 km into the hard rock. More important are the effects of directivity due to rupture propagation along the fault, which for large earthquakes can result in a ten-fold decrease in tsunami amplitude by destructive interference, and the possibility of enhanced tsunami excitation in material with weaker elastic properties, such as sedimentary layers. Modelling of the so-called tsunami earthquakes suggests that an event for which 10% of the moment release takes place in sediments generates a tsunami 10 times larger than its seismic moment would suggest. We also investigate the properties of non-double couple sources and find that their relative excitation of tsunamis and Rayleigh waves is in general comparable to that of regular seismic sources. In particular, landslides involving weak sediments could result in very large tsunamis. Finally, we emphasize that the final amplitude at a receiving shore can be strongly affected by focusing and defocusing effects, due to variations in bathymetry along the path of the tsunami. 相似文献
7.
The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program is a multi-faceted approach that encompasses tsunami identification, alert and warning systems and a comprehensive approach to tsunami risk reduction. This paper describes efforts to promote land use planning and development practices that reduce tsunami risk by local elected government and administrative officials. Seven Principles of Tsunami Risk Reduction are presented that range from risk assessment to site planning criteria.Regional Administrator, California Governors Office of Emergency Services and Manager, California Integrated Seismic Network, Earthquake and Tsunami Program 相似文献
8.
Data for tsunamigenic earthquakes and observed tsunami run-up are used to estimate tsunami-risk for the coasts of Peru and northern Chile for zones bounded by 5–35° S latitude. Tsunamigenic earthquake estimates yield magnitudes of 8.52, 8.64, and 8.73 for recurrence periods of 50, 100, and 200 years, respectively. Based on three different empirical relations between earthquake magnitudes and tsunamis, we estimate expected tsunami wave heights for various return periods. The average heights were 11.2 m (50 years), 13.7 m (100 years), and 15.9 m (200 years), while the maximum height values (obtained by Iidas method) were: 13.9, 17.3, and 20.4 m, respectively. Both the averaged and maximum seismological estimates of tsunami wave heights for this region are significantly smaller than the actually observed tsunami run-up of 24–28 m, for the major events of 1586, 1724, 1746, 1835, and 1877. Based directly on tsunami run-up data, we estimate tsunami wave heights of 13 m for a 50-year return period and 25 m for a 100-year return period. According to the seismic gap theory, we can expect that the next strong earthquake and tsunami will occur between 19 and 28° S in the vicinity of northern Chile. 相似文献
9.
The Kocaeli earthquake (M w = 7.4) of 17 August 1999 occurred in the Eastern Marmara Region of Turkey along the North Anadolu Fault and resulted in a very serious loss of life and property. One of the most important geotechnical issues of this event was the permanent ground deformations because of both liquefaction and faulting. These deformations occurred particularly along the southern shores of ?zmit Bay and Sapanca Lake between the cities of Yalova and Adapazar? in the west and east, respectively. In this study, three sites founded on delta fans, namely De?irmendere Nose, Yeniköy tea garden at Seymen on the coast of ?zmit Bay, and Vak?f Hotel site on the coast of Sapanca Lake were selected as typical cases. The main causes of the ground deformations at these sites were then investigated. Geotechnical characterization of the ground, derivation of displacement vectors from the pre- and post-earthquake aerial photographs, liquefaction assessments based on field performance data, and analyses carried out using the sliding body method have been fundamental in this study. The displacement vectors determined from photogrammetric evaluations conducted at De?irmendere and Seymen showed a combined movement of faulting and liquefaction. But except the movements in the close vicinity of shorelines, the dominant factor in this movement was faulting. The results obtained from the analyses suggested that the ground failure at De?irmendere was a submarine landslide mainly because of earthquake shaking rather than liquefaction. On the other hand, the ground failures at the Yeniköy tea garden on the coast of Seymen and the hotel area in Sapanca town resulted from liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. It was also obtained that the ground deformations estimated from the sliding body method were quite close to those measured by aerial photogrammetry technique. 相似文献
10.
The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is a State/Federal partnership created to reduce tsunami hazards along U.S. coastlines. Established in 1996, NTHMP coordinates the efforts of five Pacific States: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington with the three Federal agencies responsible for tsunami hazard mitigation: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). In the 7 years of the program it has, 1. established a tsunami forecasting capability for the two tsunami warning centers through the combined use of deep ocean tsunami data and numerical models; 2. upgraded the seismic network enabling the tsunami warning centers to locate and size earthquakes faster and more accurately; 3. produced 22 tsunami inundation maps covering 113 coastal communities with a population at risk of over a million people; 4. initiated a program to develop tsunami-resilient communities through awareness, education, warning dissemination, mitigation incentives, coastal planning, and construction guidelines; 5. conducted surveys that indicate a positive impact of the programs activities in raising tsunami awareness. A 17-member Steering Group consisting of representatives from the five Pacific States, NOAA, FEMA, USGS, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) guides NTHMP. The success of the program has been the result of a personal commitment by steering group members that has leveraged the total Federal funding by contributions from the States and Federal Agencies at a ratio of over six matching dollars to every NTHMP dollar. Twice yearly meetings of the steering group promote communication between scientists and emergency managers, and among the State and Federal agencies. From its initiation NTHMP has been based on the needs of coastal communities and emergency managers and has been results driven because of the cycle of year-to-year funding for the first 5 years. A major impact of the program occurred on 17 November 2003, when an Alaskan tsunami warning was canceled because real-time, deep ocean tsunami data indicated the tsunami would be non-damaging. Canceling this warning averted an evacuation in Hawaii, avoiding a loss in productivity valued at $68M. 相似文献
11.
K. V. S. R. Prasad S. V. V. Arun Kumar Ch. Venkata Ramu P. Sreenivas 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(2):347-360
The nearshore parameters, viz., wave runup, wave setup, and wave energy have been estimated during storm and normal conditions
of SW monsoon (June–September) and NE monsoon (November–February) by empirical parameterization along Visakhapatnam coast.
These results were compared with the field observations during three storms of SW monsoon season in the year 2007. The higher
nearshore wave energies were observed at R.K. Beach, Jodugullapalem beach, and Sagarnagar beach during both the seasons. During
storm events, the higher wave energies associated with higher wave runups cause severe erosion along the wave convergence
zones. The storm wave runups (SWRUs) were higher at R.K. Beach, Palm beach, Jodugullapalem beach, and Sagarnagar Beach. The
yearly low wave energy was observed at Lawson’s Bay with lowest wave runup, considered as safest zone. R.K. Beach, Palm beach,
and Jodugullapalem beach are identified as vulnerable zones of wave attack. It is noteworthy that in addition to wave energies,
wave runups and wave setups also play a vital role in endangering the coast. 相似文献
12.
Major geotectonic elements that are seismically active in the near-shore areas of the Indian subcontinent are the Mekran fault off the coast of Pakistan, the western part of the Narmada-Son lineament, the West Coast Fault off the west coast of India - a southward extension of the Cambay Rift, the Palghat Gap, the Godavari and Mahanadi grabens, transecting rather at an angle to the eastern coast of India and the Arakan-Yoma arcuate belt of Burma, which is a part of the global Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt, continuing southwards into the Andaman-Nicobar island complex and the Java-Sumatra trench on the ocean floor of the advancing Indo-Australian Plate.The coastal belt exhibits varied degrees of seismicity from intensely seismic areas, like the Mekran coast off Pakistan, Kutch (India) and the Arakan-Yoma belt of Burma, with earthquake magnitudes of more than 8.0, while the intervening coastal areas of the Peninsular India are moderately seismic to aseismic. The remaining areas, namely, the major part of the coastal belt of Bay of Bengal in India and Bangladesh are broadly aseismic. However, the active Godavari graben and the eastern part of the coast of Bangladesh are frequented by low to moderate magnitude earthquakes. An extension of the active Arakan-Yoma belt in the Bay of Bengal in the form of the Andaman-Nicobar Island complex is highly seismic with a maximum earthquake magnitude of more than 8.0, while the Lakshadweep-Minicoy island complex, situated on the Chagos-Laccadive ridge is moderately seismic. This broad picture of coastal and marginal seismicity is corroborated by the geodynamics of the northern part of the Indo-Australian Plate.Observations along the coastal areas during historic and recent times, however, confirm the absence of significant tsunamis, though very mild tsunami surges have occasionally been observed along the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal. No active volcanoes are known to exist in the coastal areas.Water reservoirs situated near the marginal areas of the Peninsular Shield exhibit moderate to intense seismic activities, viz. Ukai, Bhatsa, Koyna, Parambikulam, Sholayar, Idduki, and Kinnersani. 相似文献
13.
The largest uncertainty in assessing hazards from local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin is estimating the possible earthquake source parameters. We investigate which source parameters exert the largest influence on tsunami generation and determine how each parameter affects the amplitude of the local tsunami. The following source parameters were analyzed: (1) type of faulting characteristic of the Cascadia subduction zone, (2) amount of slip during rupture, (3) slip orientation, (4) duration of rupture, (5) physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and (6) influence of secondary faulting. The effect of each of these source parameters on the quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is determined by using elastic three-dimensional, finite-element models. The propagation of the resulting tsunami is modeled both near the coastline using the two-dimensional (x-t) Peregrine equations that includes the effects of dispersion and near the source using the three-dimensional (x-y-t) linear long-wave equations. The source parameters that have the largest influence on local tsunami excitation are the shallowness of rupture and the amount of slip. In addition, the orientation of slip has a large effect on the directivity of the tsunami, especially for shallow dipping faults, which consequently has a direct influence on the length of coastline inundated by the tsunami. Duration of rupture, physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and secondary faulting all affect the excitation of tsunamis but to a lesser extent than the shallowness of rupture and the amount and orientation of slip. Assessment of the severity of the local tsunami hazard should take into account that relatively large tsunamis can be generated from anomalous tsunami earthquakes that rupture within the accretionary wedge in comparison to interplate thrust earthquakes of similar magnitude. 相似文献
14.
Teleseismic and strong-motion data are inverted to determine the rupture process during the November 1999 Düzce earthquake in NW Turkey. The fault geometry, rise time and rupture velocity are determined from the aftershock distribution and preliminary inversions of the teleseismic data. Joint inversion of the teleseismic and strong-motion data is then carried out for the slip distribution. We obtain the strike 264°, dip 64°, rake −172°, seismic moment 5.0×1019 N m (Mw 7.1), and average stress drop 7 MPa. This earthquake was characterized by bilateral fault rupture and asymmetric slip distribution. Two asperities (areas of large slip) are identified, the eastern one being 1.5 times larger than the western one. The derived slip distribution is consistent with the aftershock distribution, surface rupture and damage. The point of rupture initiation in this Düzce earthquake coincided with the eastern tip of the aftershock distribution of the August 1999 Izmit earthquake. 相似文献
15.
G. Camus Dr. M. Diament Dr. M. Gloaguen Dr. A. Provost Dr. P. Vincent Dr. 《GeoJournal》1992,28(2):123-128
Conclusion The data collected during the Mentawai cruise help to clarify understanding of the 1883 eruption of Krakatau. We have previously discussed the weaknesses of the interpretation of Williams (1941) and others (Self and Rampino 1981) and emphasized that only a Mount St. Helens-type collapse during the course of the eruption could account for all the characteristics of the eruption and of the related deposits.The discovery on land of deposits attributable to a debris-avalanche, in the stratigraphic position where they were expected, is a strong argument for the validity of our scenario.Marine surveys confirm that the sea bottom around Krakatau is covered by a thick ignimbritic deposit. But the presence of this deposit does not invalidate the presence of a debris-avalanche deposit under the ignimbrites. The hummocky morphology favours this hypothesis.Flank-failure of volcanoes is generally considered as a very efficient mechanism for triggering tsunamis (Kienle et al. 1987; Siebert et al. 1987). However, the majority of the volcanoes where flank-failure has been described are tall and bulky and the collapse of a broad edifice like Krakatau may be surprising. However the geological evidence shows that such a mechanism can act at various scales; for example the flank collapse of Mayu Yama volcano (height 700 m, volume 0,3 km3), a parasitic cone of Unzen volcano (Japan), triggered a debris-avalanche into the sea that was 1 km long, with a characteristic hummocky surface; the resulting tsunami killed 9528 people (Katayama 1974). In the same way, a partial collapse of Iliwerung volcano, Indonesia (50 × 106 m3) in July 1979, triggered a tsunami which killed several hundred people (McClelland et al. 1989). At Krakatau, the main summit was 822 m asl; the collapse took place along the edge of the prehistoric caldera and this structural unconformity probably facilitated the triggering of the process. 相似文献
16.
Recent mass movements in the Kocaeli Province, Turkey in 2010 caused damage to people, property and infrastructure, especially in Izmit and its vicinity. The causes and impact of these mass movements are outlined, so as to increase awareness of their dangerous aspects. Some of these mass movement events took place in urban areas, bringing attention to the need for better and more effective land use practices. The impact of these movements indicates the benefit there would be from geology and engineering geology in the planning of any property development and land use. 相似文献
17.
Run-up and Inundation Pattern Developed During the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004 Along the Coast of Tamilnadu (India) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The tsunami run-up, inundation and damage pattern observed along the coast of Tamilnadu (India) during the deadliest Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004 is documented in this paper. The tsunami caused severe damage and claimed many victims in the coastal areas of eleven countries, bordering the Indian Ocean. Along the coast of Indian mainland, the damage was caused by the tsunami only. Largest tsunami run-up and inundation was observed along the coast of Nagapattinam district and was about 10–12 m and 3.0 km, respectively. The measured inundation data were strongly scattered in direct relationship to the morphology of the seashore and the tsunami run-up. Lowest tsunami run-up and inundation was measured along the coast of Thanjavur, Puddukkotai and Ramnathpuram districts of Tamilnadu in the Palk Strait. The presence of shadow of Sri Lanka, the interferences of direct/receded waves with the reflected waves from Sri Lanka and Maldive Islands and variation in the width of continental shelf were the main cause of large variation in tsunami run-up along the coast of Tamilnadu. 相似文献
18.
A survey of over 300 residents and visitors (non-residents) perceptions of tsunami hazards was carried out along the west coast of Washington State during August and September 2001. The study quantified respondents preparedness to deal with tsunami hazards. Despite success in disseminating hazard information, levels of preparedness were recorded at low to moderate levels. This finding is discussed in regard to the way in which people interpret hazard information and its implications for the process of adjustment adoption or preparedness. These data are also used to define strategies for enhancing preparedness. Strategies involve maintaining and enhancing hazard knowledge and risk perception, promoting the development of preparatory intentions, and facilitating the conversion of these intentions into sustained preparedness. A second phase of work began in February 2003, consisting of a series of focus groups which examined beliefs regarding preparedness and warnings, and a school survey. Preliminary findings of this work are presented. 相似文献
19.
Geophysical data have identified four submarine segments of the Kerepehi Fault, roughly bisecting a back-arc rift (Hauraki Rift). These segments have been traced through the shallow waters of the Firth of Thames, which lies at the southern end of the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand. No historical or paleotsunami data are available to assess the tsunami hazard of these fault segments.Analysis of the fault geometry, combined with paleoseismic data for three further terrestrial segments of the Fault, suggest Most Credible Earthquake (MCE) moment magnitudes of 6.5–7.1. Due to the presence of thick deposits of soft sediment, and thesemi-confined nature of the Firth, the MCE events are considered capable of generating tsunami or tsunami-like waves. Two numerical models (finite element and finite difference), and an empirical method proposed by Abe (1995), were used to predict maximum tsunami wave heights. The numerical models also modelled the tsunami propagation.The MCE events were found not to represent a major threat to the large metropolitan centre of Auckland City (New Zealand's largest population centre). However, the waves were a threat to small coastal communities around the Firth, including the township of Thames, and 35,000 ha of low-lying land along the southern shores of the Firth of Thames.The Abe method was found to provide a quick and useful method of assessing the regional tsunami height. However, for sources in water depths < 25 m the Abe method predicted heights 2–4 times larger than the numerical models. Since the numerical models were not intended for simulating tsunami generation in such shallow water, the Abe results are probably a good guide to the maximum wave heights. 相似文献
20.
G. F. Karakaisis C. B. Papazachos E. M. Scordilis B. C. Papazachos 《Tectonophysics》2004,383(1-2):81-89
According to previous observations [Geophys. Res. Lett. 27 (2000) 3957], the generation of large (M≥7.0) earthquakes in the western part of the north Anatolian fault system (Marmara Sea) is followed by strong earthquakes along the Northern Boundary of the Aegean microplate (NAB: northwestermost Anatolia–northern Aegean–central Greece–Ionian islands). Therefore, it can be hypothesized that a seismic excitation along this boundary should be expected after the occurrence of the Izmit 1999 earthquake (M=7.6). We have applied the method of accelerating seismic crustal deformation, which is based on concepts of critical point dynamics in an attempt to locate more precisely those regions along the NAB where seismic excitation is more likely to occur. For this reason, a detailed parametric grid search of the broader NAB area was performed for the identification of accelerating energy release behavior.Three such elliptical critical regions have been identified with centers along this boundary. The first region, (A), is centered in the eastern part of this boundary (40.2°N, 27.2°E: southwest of Marmara), the second region, (B), has a center in the middle part of the boundary (38.8°N, 23.4°E: East Central Greece) and the third region, (C), in the westernmost part of the boundary (38.2°N, 20.9°E: Ionian Islands). The study of the time variation of the cumulative Benioff strain in two of the three identified regions (A and B) revealed that intense accelerating seismicity is observed especially after the occurrence of the 1999 Izmit mainshock. Therefore, it can be suggested that the seismic excitation, at least in these two regions, has been triggered by the Izmit mainshock.Estimations of the magnitudes and origin times of the expected mainshocks in these three critical regions have also been performed, assuming that the accelerating seismicity in these regions will lead to a critical point, that is, to the generation of mainshocks. 相似文献