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1.
A shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland surrounded by the Baltic Sea is vulnerable to changes in groundwater recharge, sea-level rise and human activities. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater under climate scenarios was performed for the aquifer area by utilising the results of a published study on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and sea-level rise on groundwater–seawater interaction. Three intrinsic vulnerability mapping methods, the aquifer vulnerability index (AVI), a modified SINTACS and GALDIT, were applied and compared. According to the results, the degree of groundwater vulnerability is greatly impacted by seasonal variations in groundwater recharge during the year, and also varies depending on the climate-change variability in the long term. The groundwater is potentially highly vulnerable to contamination from sources on the ground surface during high groundwater recharge rates after snowmelt, while a high vulnerability to seawater intrusion could exist when there is a low groundwater recharge rate in dry season. The AVI results suggest that a change in the sea level will have an insignificant impact on groundwater vulnerability compared with the results from the modified SINTACS and GALDIT. The modified SINTACS method could be used as a guideline for the groundwater vulnerability assessment of glacial and deglacial deposits in inland aquifers, and in combination with GALDIT, it could provide a useful tool for assessing groundwater vulnerability to both contamination from sources on the ground surface and to seawater intrusion for shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifers under future climate-change conditions.  相似文献   

2.
East-northeastern Brazil has a wave-dominated, micro- to meso-tidal coast, lying entirely within the southern Atlantic trade wind belt. Integration of geologic mapping, radiocarbon dating and vibracoring data shows that the Quaternary coastal evolution of this area was controlled by three major factors: (1) sea-level history; (2) trade winds; and (3) climate change.

Sea-level history. Along the east-northeastern coast of Brazil, relative sea level has fallen approximately 5 m during the last 5000 y. Correlation of this sea-level history with the evolution of beach-ridge, lagoonal and coastal plain deposits shows that: (1) sea-level rise favours the formation of barrier island—lagoonal systems and the construction of intralagoonal deltas; (2) sea-level lowering is not conductive to barrier island formation. Rather, lagoons and bays become emergent and beach-ridge plains rapidly prograde.

Trade winds. Sediment dispersal systems along the coastal zone of east-northeastern Brazil have been highly persistent since Pleistocene time, as deduced from beach-ridge orientation. This persistence results from the fact that sediment dispersal in wave-dominated settings is ultimately controlled by atmospheric circulation which, for the east-northeastern coast of Brazil is associated with the South Atlantic high-pressure cell. The remarkable stability of this cell through time, has allowed the accumulation of extensive beach-ridge plains at the longshore drift sinks located along the coast.

Climate change. Effects of Quaternary climate changes on coastal sedimentation are twofold. Climate changes may affect rainfall patterns, thus exerting an important control on coastal dune development. Along the coast of northeastern Brazil, active coastal dunes are only present in those areas in which at least four consecutive dry months occur during the year. Mapping of these areas has shown that dune development during the Holocene has been episodic, these episodes being probably controlled by variations in rainfall patterns associated with climate changes. Secondly, despite its overall stability, the position of the high-pressure cell has experienced small shifts in position during the Holocene in response to climate changes. Changes in wind direction associated with these shifts have induced modifications in the coastal dispersion system, which are recorded in the strandplains as small truncations in the beach-ridge alignments.

These results have important implications in understanding accumulation of ancient sandstone shoreline sequences.  相似文献   


3.
The United States’ deeply racialized history currently operates below the surface of contemporary apolitical narratives on vulnerability mitigation and adaptation to sea-level rise. As communities, regulatory agencies, and policy-makers plan for rising seas, it is important to recognize the landscapes of race and deep histories of racism that have shaped the socio-ecological formations of coastal regions. If this history goes unrecognized, what we label colorblind adaptation planning is likely to perpetuate what Rob Nixon calls the “slow violence” of environmental racism, characterized by policies that benefit some populations while abandoning others. By colorblind adaptation planning, we refer to vulnerability mitigation and adaptation planning projects that altogether overlook racial inequality—or worse dismiss its systemic causes and explain away racial inequality by attributing racial disparities to non-racial causes. We contend that responses to sea-level rise must be attuned to racial difference and structures of racial inequality. In this article, we combine the theory of racial formation with the geographical study of environmental justice and point to the ways racial formations are also environmental. We examine vulnerability to sea-level rise through the process of racial coastal formation on Sapelo Island, Georgia, specifically analyzing its deep history, the uneven racial development of land ownership and employment, and barriers to African American participation and inclusion in adaptation planning. Racial coastal formation’s potential makes way for radical transformation in climate change science not only in coastal areas, but other spaces as situated territorial racial formations.  相似文献   

4.
Dawson  A.G.  Smith  D.E.  Dawson  S.  Brooks  C.L.  Foster  I.D.L.  Tooley  M.J. 《Geologie en Mijnbouw》1998,77(3-4):225-232
The geomorphic and sedimentological evidence for former sea-level changes in the exposed coastline of western Jura shows a clear coastal response to past changes in climate. In particular the rapid and high-magnitude climate changes associated with the onset and termination of the Younger Dryas appear to have been accompanied by major changes in coastal response. In western Jura, the temperate climate of the Lateglacial Interstadial was associated with beach-ridge deposition, with the earlier part of this period being associated with larger ridges than the latter. By contrast, the cold climate during the Younger Dryas appears to have been dominated by frost processes, sea-ice development and rapid rates of coastal erosion of bedrock. Cold-climate shore erosion of bedrock appears to have ended suddenly at the close of the Younger Dryas.  相似文献   

5.
Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.  相似文献   

6.
Ferreira  Óscar  Kupfer  Sunna  Costas  Susana 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(3):2221-2239

Overwash is one of the most prominent hazards affecting coastal zones, and the associated consequences are expected to increase because of both sea-level rise and intensification of coastal occupation. This study used a 23-year data set of wave heights and tide-surge levels to define return periods of overwash potential for current and future sea-level conditions, namely 2055 and 2100, at two sites from South Portugal. A relevant intensification of both frequency and magnitude of the overwash is expected to occur by mid-century if adaptation measures are not taken and further aggravated by 2100. Current overwash levels with a return period of 100-years can reach a return period lower than 20-years by 2055 and 10-years by 2100. However, these values are rather variable from site to site, highlighting the urgency to develop detailed local studies to identify climate change impacts along coastal sectors, based on validated equations and long-term time series. These could be easily carried by replicating and adapting the here proposed methodology to sandy coasts worldwide. Understating the impact that climate change (namely sea-level rise) may have at the local level is key to contribute to effective management plans that include adaptation measures to minimize risks associated with coastal floods.

  相似文献   

7.
It is thought that 70% of beaches worldwide are experiencing erosion (Bird in Coastline changes: a global review, Wiley, Hoboken, 1985), and as global sea levels are rising and expected to accelerate, the management of coastal erosion is now a shared global issue. This paper aims to demonstrate a method to robustly model both the incidence of the coastal erosion hazard, the vulnerability of the population, and the exposure of coastal assets to determine coastal erosion risk, using Scotland as a case study. In Scotland, the 2017 Climate Change Risk Assessment for Scotland highlights the threat posed by coastal erosion to coastal assets and the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 requires an Adaptation Programme to address the risks posed by climate change. Internationally, an understanding and adaption to coastal hazards is imperative to people, infrastructure and economies, with Scotland being no exception. This paper uses a Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) (Fitton et al. in Ocean Coast Manag 132:80–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.08.018 , 2016) to establish the exposure to coastal erosion of residential dwellings, roads, and rail track in Scotland. In parallel, the vulnerability of the population to coastal erosion, using a suite of indicators and Experian Mosaic Scotland geodemographic classification, is also presented. The combined exposure and vulnerability data are then used to determine coastal erosion risk in Scotland. This paper identifies that 3310 dwellings (a value of £524 m) are exposed to erosion, and the Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index (CEVI) identifies 1273 of these are also considered to be highly vulnerable to coastal erosion, i.e. at high risk. Additionally, the CESM classified 179 km (£1.2 bn worth) of road and 13 km of rail track (£93 m to £2 bn worth) to be exposed. Identifying locations and assets that are exposed and at risk from coastal erosion is crucial for effective management and enables proactive, rather that reactive, decisions to be made at the coast. Natural hazards and climate change are set to impact most on the vulnerable in society. It is therefore imperative that we begin to plan, manage, and support both people and the environment in a manner which is socially just and sustainable. We encourage a detailed vulnerability analysis, such as the CEVI demonstrated here for Scotland, to be included within future coastal erosion risk research. This approach would support a more sustainable and long-term approach to coastal management decisions.  相似文献   

8.
The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.  相似文献   

9.
Urban drainage systems in coastal cities in SE China are characterized by often complex canal and sluicegate systems that are designed to safely drain pluvial flooding whilst preventing tidal inundation.However, the risk of coastal flooding in the region is expected to increase over the next 50-100 years, as urban areas continue to expand and sea-levels are expected to rise. To assess the impact of projected sealevel rise on this type of urban drainage system, a one-dimensional model and decision support tool was developed. The model indicated that although sea-level rise represents a significant challenge, flood probability will continue to be most influenced by rainfall. Events that are significant enough to cause flooding will most likely be minimally impacted by changes to the tidal frame. However, it was found that a sea-level rise of up to 1.2 m by 2010 would result in increased drainage times and higher volumes of over-topping when flooding occurs.  相似文献   

10.
Coastal erosion and management attract much conern all around the world as coastal erosion is a problem at many coastal sites exacerbated by human activities and its adaptability through reasonable mitigation measures. This paper summarizes the main factors causing coastal erosion including reduction of sediment discharged by rivers trapped coastal structures, sand mining and reclaimation, relative sea-level rise, destruction of coastal ecosystem and weakening of coastal defenses. Mechanisms causing erosion of coastal dune, soft rock coast and muddy coast are identified and discussed. Sandy coastal erosion, soft rock coastal erosion, muddy coastal erosion, biological coastal erosion and coastal structural erosion are identified according to the characteristics of erosion in China. This study supplements the theory and methodology for coastal erosion management and provides information for managers and stakeholders.  相似文献   

11.
The coastal zone of northwest Portugal can be subdivided into two geomorphological sectors: Sector 1, between the Minho River and the town of Espinho, where the coastal segments consist of estuaries, sandy and shingle beaches with rocky outcrops, and Holocene dune systems (foredunes and some migrating dunes with blow-outs). The estuaries and the foredunes in particular are very degraded by human activities. Sector 2, between Espinho and the Mondego Cape, where coastal lagoons and Holocene dune systems (foredunes, parabolic and transverse dunes) occur. This study deals with the macroscale, i.e. 100–1000 years, forcing by sea-level changes and neotectonic activity on the one hand, and mesoscale, i.e. 1–100 years, forcing by climate fluctuations on the other hand, on these (palaeo-)environments. It is shown in particular that sea-level changes and neotectonic activity play a dominant role in the evolution of the coastal zone since the Late Pleistocene. Sediment starvation on the shoreface is postulated to be one of the major causes for coastal erosion since at least the 15th century. The mesoscale role of climate is difficult to assess at the present stage of knowledge, mainly because of overprinting by the macroscale evolution of the coast. However, data on estuarine saltmarsh evolution in sector 1 point towards discrete changes in storminess, while the development of Medieval dune systems in sectors 1 and 2 are attributed to the Little Ice Age or, alternatively, to human occupation of the dune areas.  相似文献   

12.
Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coastal systems faced with deteriorating habitat, accelerated sea level rise, and changes in precipitation and storm patterns.  相似文献   

13.
海岸带侵蚀灾害研究进展及思考   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
在当今全球海平面上升的背景下,海岸侵蚀灾害已严重威胁着海岸带生存和生活环境,逐渐成为各相关领域的一个热点研究课题。因此,在总结中国典型海岸段侵蚀灾害的基础上,深刻探讨国内外海岸带侵蚀研究现状,并就此提出存在的两个关键性问题。最后,指出今后应重点加强以下5个方面的研究:(1)海岸侵蚀与地质环境条件的相关关系;(2)海岸侵蚀分区特征与发育分布规律;(3)侵蚀海岸的变形破坏模式;(4)岩土体在各种侵蚀因子作用下力学特性变化;(5)海岸稳定性的评价机制。  相似文献   

14.
Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.  相似文献   

15.
Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation.  相似文献   

16.
Shennan  Ian  Tooley  Michael  Green  Frances  Innes  Jim  Kennington  Kevin  Lloyd  Jeremy  Rutherford  Mairead 《Geologie en Mijnbouw》1998,77(3-4):247-262
Analyses of geomorphologically contrasting sites in Morar, NW Scotland, describe the forcing mechanisms of coastal change. Isolation basins (i.e. basins behind rock sills and now isolated from the sea following isostatic uplift) accumulated continuous marine and freshwater sediments from c.12 to 2 ka BP. Raised dune, marsh and wetland sites register breaching, migration and stability of dunes from c. 9 to 2 ka BP. High-resolution methods designed to address issues of macroscale and microscale sea-level changes and patterns of storminess include 1-mm sampling for pollen, dinocyst and diatom analyses, infra-red photography, X-ray photography and thin-section analysis. The data enhance the record of relative sea-level change for the area. Major phases of landward migration of the coast occurred during the period of low sea-level rise in the mid-Holocene as the rate of rise decreased from c. 3 to < 1 mm/year. Relative sea-level change controls the broad pattern of coastal evolution at each site; local site-specific factors contribute to short-term process change. There is no record of extreme events such as tsunami. Within a system of dynamic metastable equilibrium, the Holocene records show that site-specific factors determine the exact timing of system breakdown, e.g. dune breaching, superimposed on regional sea-level rise. The global average sea-level rise of 3 to 6 mm/yr by AD 2050 predicted by IPCC would only partly be offset in the Morar area by isostatic uplift of about 1 mm/yr. A change from relative sea-level fall to sea-level rise, in areas where the regional rate of uplift no longer offsets global processes, is a critical factor in the management of coastal resources.  相似文献   

17.
Coastal megacities and climate change   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
Rapid urbanization is projected to produce 20 coastal megacities (population exceeding 8 million) by 2010. This is mainly a developing world phenomenon: in 1990, there were seven coastal megacities in Asia (excluding those in Japan) and two in South America, rising by 2010 to 12 in Asia (including Istanbul), three in South America and one in Africa.All coastal locations, including megacities, are at risk to the impacts of accelerated global sea-level rise and other coastal implications of climate change, such as changing storm frequency. Further, many of the coastal megacities are built on geologically young sedimentary strata that are prone to subsidence given excessive groundwater withdrawal. At least eight of the projected 20 coastal megacities have experienced a local orrelative rise in sea level which often greatly exceeds any likely global sea-level rise scenario for the next century.The implications of climate change for each coastal megacity vary significantly, so each city requires independent assessment. In contrast to historical precedent, a proactive perspective towards coastal hazards and changing levels of risk with time is recommended. Low-cost measures to maintain or increase future flexibility of response to climate change need to be identified and implemented as part of an integrated approach to coastal management.  相似文献   

18.
全球环境变化海岸易损性研究综述   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
全球变化海岸易损性评估是国际政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)敦促沿海各国应优先开展的一项工作。根据近年来有关海岸易损性的研究成果,可以认为海岸易损性系指海岸带自然、社会经济综合体对全球环境变化和海平面上升的不适应程度。通过阐述IPCC易损性评估的基本方法、内容和目标,指出了海岸易损性评估中存在的问题及改善的方法,最后,结合我国海岸带易损性评估的已有成果,分析了我国海岸易损性评估工作中存在的问题及今后的研究方向。  相似文献   

19.
Studies of the Nile Delta coast have indicated wide values of local subsidence, ranging from 0.4 to 5 mm/yr. Trend analysis of sea-level rise and shoreline retreat at two Nile Delta promontories have been studied. Records from tide gauges at Alexandria (1944–1989) and Port Said (1926–1987), north of the Nile delta coast, indicate a submergence of the land and/or a rise of the sea-level of 2 and 2.4 mm/yr, respectively. Dramatic erosion has occurred on some beaches of the Nile Delta. This is greatest at the tips of the Rosetta and Damietta promontories, with shoreline retreat up to 58 m/yr. Relationship between the shoreline retreat and sea level trends in terms of correlation analysis and application of the Bruun Rule indicates that the sea level rise has, by itself, a relatively minor effect on coastal erosion. The sea-level trend at the Nile delta coast is found to be only one of several effects on shoreline retreat. Major recent effects include a combination of cut-off of sediment supply to the coast by damming the River Nile and local hydrodynamic forces of waves and currents. Estimates of local future sea-level rise by the year 2100 at Alexandria and Port Said, respectively, is expected to be 37.9 and 44.2 cm. These expectations, combined with other factors, could accelerate coastal erosion, inundate wetlands and lowlands, and increase the salinity of lakes and aquifers.  相似文献   

20.
The 4th IPCC report highlights the increased vulnerability of the coastal areas from floods due to sea-level rise (SLR). The existing coastal flood control structures in Bangladesh are not adequate to adapt these changes and new measures are urgently necessary. It is important to determine the impacts of SLR on flooding to analyse the performance of the existing structures and corresponding impact to plan for suitable adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of floods on coastal zone. The study aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the possible effects of SLR on floods in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. A hydrodynamic model, which is a combination of surface and river parts, was utilized for flood simulation. The tool was applied under a range of future scenarios, and results indicate both spatial variability of risk and changes in flood characteristics between now and under SLR. Estimated impact on population, infrastructure and transportation is also exposed. These types of impact estimation would be of value to flood plain management authorities to minimize the socio-economic impact.  相似文献   

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