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奥运气象服务中的短时预报及预警 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
2008年奥运会和残奥会期间,北京正值盛夏和主汛期,天气系统复杂多变。为北京奥运会提供有特色、高水平的一流气象服务,采取了滚动天气会商,跟进式服务的方案。在短期预报的基础上,加强短时临近预报。在工作中应用了临近天气预报业务系统(BJ-ANC)、短时临近交互预报预警平台(VIPS)等新型系统平台和资料,为奥组委和公众提供了准确的精细化预报。尤其是局地突发性天气,如强降水、雷暴和强风等天气的短时临近预报,及时提供精细化服务,为比赛避开不利的天气时段、抓住降雨间歇时段,使比赛得以顺利进行。优质的气象服务受到中央领导和奥组委官员高度评价。 相似文献
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为实现短时临近预警业务集约化智能化运行和管理,采用B/S结构模式及Web GIS技术开发了省、市、县三级一体化的短时临近天气预警集约化业务系统。该系统集天气监控、预报预警产品制作、服务分发和业务管理为一体,具有业务整体性强、集约化程度高、有一定智能化功能等特点。系统开发集成的主要关键技术包括突发天气短时临近预报概念模型的建立,预警产品的制作与订正,强对流天气区的自动识别和追踪技术等。目前该系统已投入业务运行,成为广西区、市、县三级短临监测、预报一体化平台,实现了各级台站之间气象信息的快速交流共享,达到上下级台站短时天气快速联防互动的效果,预警产品制作比旧的业务系统效率更高效,流程更规范,生成的产品内容更标准,上下级业务互动更快速。该系统推进了气象业务的集约化、智能化运行及维护,服务器布置于省局,客户端以网页方式推送、展示,用户通过浏览器就能完成天气监测及预报预警产品制作到发布的所有流程。 相似文献
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为了提高四川省防雷减灾工作效率,推动雷电服务数字化、网络化、集约化、规范化、标准化,实现快速、准确、高效的雷电短时临近预警,四川省防雷中心协助中国气象科学研究院,共同研制开发了“四川省雷电短时临近预警系统”.目前四川省防雷中心已经结合本地的实际情况开展雷电临近预警业务试运行.同时在成都、凉山、眉山、绵阳、乐山等市州气象台进行区域化雷电监测预警预报推广应用,初步实现雷电监测预警预报业务和服务,并在2010 ～2011年几个重大天气过程中成功进行了雷电预警预报,同时对当地气象台站进行强天气过程预测预报提供了辅助手段,得到了有关职能部门及当地各级政府的充分肯定. 相似文献
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短临交互预报系统VIPS设计开发与应用 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
介绍了短时临近交互预报系统VIPS(Very-short-range Interactive Prediction System)的设计理念、开发思路及其功能实现。该系统设计基于开放理念,采用Java语言及开源软件,可跨平台运行,便于系统的开发及升级维护。以开源地理信息软件OpenMap为核心,将丰富的实况探测资料(如区域雷达资料、自动站资料、闪电定位资料)、雷达外推预报和风暴追踪产品及0～6小时数值预报产品与精细的地理信息以图层形式进行叠加,可对风暴的发生、发展在短时临近时间段内进行综合分析。基于对短时临近预报相关实况探测资料及短时临近预报产品的综合分析,可实现预警产品的人机交互快速编辑、制作精细化的预警产品并快速分发,满足了北京奥运会气象预警制作发布及现场服务等需求。 相似文献
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根据完善气象预报预测系统的规划和需求,在继承和改进短时临近预报业务工作多年成果的基础上,宁夏气象台建立了灾害性天气短时临近监测预警平台。该平台设计为B／S和C／S架构有机结合,由数据运算程序集、数据库和网站3个部分交互协作的业务系统。本文从平台设计思路、结构特点、各模块主要功能等对宁夏灾害性天气短时临近监测预警平台作一简单介绍。该平台根据宁夏气象业务发展和防灾减灾实际需要研发,评估、优化、更新、整合了已有研究成果,融合多种探测资料与方法,突出短时临近灾害性天气实时监测预警和多模式预报产品检验评估与综合集成预报技术,建成以集成预报、国家指导预报、中尺度数值预报等定量化预报产品为基础,集“实时监测预警与综合分析、强对流灾害天气预报方法、检验评估与集成预报、预报预警快速制作分发”等为一体的业务平台。 相似文献
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从研发专业雷电临近预警服务产品及提高其时效性的目的出发,以0.01°×0.01°栅格、6min为一个预警单元,在雷达阈值控制的雷电临近预警模型的基础上,对每个预警网格进行前5个时段内所发生闪电与网格的距离计算,按闪电逼近网格的距离和变化趋势确定预警规则,生成当前时刻往后6min栅格、重点区域雷电发生情况的临近预警产品,并对模型的预报成功率进行了定量和定性化的评估,结果表明该模型相比传统依靠雷达阈值控制进行雷电临近预警的方法在栅格、区域的预报准确率都有一定的提高,计算速度快,可以较好地被应用到实际特别是专业雷电临近预警服务中。 相似文献
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The kinetics of the aqueous phase reactions of NO3 radicals with HCOOH/HCOO– and CH3COOH/CH3COO– have been investigated using a laser photolysis/long-path laser absorption technique. NO3 was produced via excimer laser photolysis of peroxodisulfate anions (S2O
8
2–
) at 351 nm followed by the reactions of sulfate radicals (SO
4
–
) with excess nitrate. The time-resolved detection of NO3 was achieved by long-path laser absorption at 632.8 nm. For the reactions of NO3 with formic acid (1) and formate (2) rate coefficients ofk
1=(3.3±1.0)×105 l mol–1 s–1 andk
2=(5.0±0.4)×107 l mol–1 s–1 were found atT=298 K andI=0.19 mol/l. The following Arrhenius expressions were derived:k
1(T)=(3.4±0.3)×1010 exp[–(3400±600)/T] l mol–1 s–1 andk
2(T)=(8.2±0.8)×1010 exp[–(2200±700)/T] l mol–1 s–1. The rate coefficients for the reactions of NO3 with acetic acid (3) and acetate (4) atT=298 K andI=0.19 mol/l were determined as:k
3=(1.3±0.3)×104 l mol–1 s–1 andk
4=(2.3±0.4)×106 l mol–1 s–1. The temperature dependences for these reactions are described by:k
3(T)=(4.9±0.5)×109 exp[–(3800±700)/T] l mol–1 s–1 andk
4(T)=(1.0±0.2)×1012 exp[–(3800±1200)/T] l mol–1 s–1. The differences in reactivity of the anions HCOO– and CH3COO– compared to their corresponding acids HCOOH and CH3COOH are explained by the higher reactivity of NO3 in charge transfer processes compared to H atom abstraction. From a comparison of NO3 reactions with various droplets constituents it is concluded that the reaction of NO3 with HCOO– may present a dominant loss reaction of NO3 in atmospheric droplets. 相似文献
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The following Henry's law constants (K
H/mol2kg-2atm-1) for HNO3 and the hydrohalic acids have been evaluated from available partial pressure and other thermodynamic data from 0°–40°C, 1 atm total pressure: HNO
3
, 40°C–5.85×105; 30°C–1.50×106; 25°C–2.45×106; 20°C–4.04×106; 10°C–1.15×107; 0°C–3.41×107. HF, 40°C–3.2; 30°C–6.6; 25°C–9.61; 20°C–14.0; 10°C–32.0; 0°C–76. HCl, 40°C–4.66×105; 30°C–1.23×106; 25°C–2.04×106; 20°C–3.37×106; 10°C–9.71×106; 0°C–2.95×107. HBr, 40°C–2.5×108; 30°C–7.5×108; 25°C–1.32×109; 20°C–2.37×109; 10°C–8.10×109; 0°C–3.0×1010. HI, 40°C–5.2×108; 30°C–1.5×109; 25°C–2.5×109; 20°C–4.5×109; 10°C–1.5×1010; 0°C–5.0×1010. Simple equilibrium models suggest that HNO3, CH3SO3H and other acids up to 10x less soluble than HCl displace it from marine seasalt aerosols. HF is displaced preferentially to HCl by dissolved acidity at all relative humidities greater than about 80%, and should be entirely depleted in aged marine aerosols. 相似文献
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K. Zeller 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1950,2(4):401-403
Zusammenfassung A. undE. Vassy haben in der Frage der Temperatur-abhängigkeit des Ozongehalts der Atmosphäre aus der Gleichung loge
n
–logJ
n
logK(T
n
) geschlossen, daß auch die Gleichung loge
n
logJ
n
+logK(T
n
) gültig sei. Es wird hier nun gezeigt, daß die bei der ersten Gleichung erlaubten Vernachlässigungen bei der zweiten zu großen Fehlern führen können und daß daher von A. undE. Vassy kein Beweis für die Richtigkeit der Beziehunge=J.K(T) erbracht ist.
Summary In the question of temperature dependence of ozone content of the atmosphere A. andE. Vassy have concluded from the equation loge n –logJ n logK(T n ) that also the formula loge n logJ n +logK(T n ) must be valid. In this paper it is proved that the neglections which may be admitted for the first equation, can conduct to great errors. Therefore A. andE. Vassy have not produced a proof for the correctness of the equatione=J.K(T).
Résumé A. etE. Vassy en étuidant le problème de la teneur de l'ozone atmosphérique en relation avec la température ont admis que l'équation loge n –logJ n logK(T n ) entraînait aussi la relation loge n logJ n +logK(T n ). On montre ici que les simplifications admises pour la première équation conduisent pour l'application de la seconde à de fortes erreurs, et que par conséquent ces auteurs n'ont pas fourni de preuve de la justesse de la relatione=J.K(T).相似文献
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Precipitation samples were collected by filtrating bulk sampler in Kitakyushu City, Japan, from January 1988 to December 1990. Volume weighted annual mean of pH was 4.93, but the pH distribution indicated that most probable value lay in the range pH 6.0–6.4. Volume weighted annual mean concentrations of major ionic components were as follows; SO
4
2–
: 84.2, NO
3
–
: 28.1, Cl–: 86.3, NH
4
+
: 45.5, Ca2+: 63.3, Mg2+: 27.0, K+: 3.4, Na+: 69.0 µ eq l–1. The highest concentrations of these ionic components were observed in winter and the lowest occurred in the rainy season. The ratio of ex-SO
4
2–
/NO
3
–
exhibited the lowest ratio in summer, and the highest ratio in winter. Good correlations were obtained between Cl– and Na+, ex-SO
4
2+
and ex-Ca2+, NO
3
–
and ex-Ca2+, and NH
4
+
and ex-SO
4
2–
, respectively. However, no correlation between Cl– and Na+ with Ca2+ was observed. The relationship of H+ with (ex-SO
4
2–
+ NO
3
–
) - (ex-Ca2+ + NH
4
+
) indicated positive correlation. 相似文献
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Summary ?Above orographically structured terrain considerable differences of the regional wind field may be identified during large-scale
extreme wind events. So far, these regional differences could not be resolved by climate models. To determine the relationships
between large-scale atmospheric conditions, the influence of orography, and the regional wind field, data measured in the
upper Rhine valley within the framework of the REKLIP Regional Climate Project were analyzed and calculations were made using
the KAMM mesoscale model. In the area of the upper Rhine valley, ratios of the wind velocity in the Rhine valley at 10 m above
ground level, νval, and the large-scale flow velocity, νlar, are between νval/νlar ≈ 0.1 and νval/νlar ≈ 1. The νval/νlar ratio exhibits a strong dependence on thermal stratification, δ, and decreases from νval/νlar ≈ 1 at δ = 0 K m−1 to νval/νlar ≈ 0.2 at δ = 0.0075 K m−1. In areas, where the lateral mountainous border of the Rhine valley is interrupted, the νval/νlar ratio increases again with increasing stability or decreasing Froude number. This is obviously due to flow around the Black
Forest under stable stratification. It is demonstrated by model calculations that a complex wind field develops in the Rhine
valley at small Froude numbers (Fr < 1) irrespective of the direction of large-scale flow. The νval/νlar ratio is characterized by small values in the direct lee side (νval/νlar ≈ 0.2) and high values on the windward side of the lateral mountainous border of the Rhine valley (νval/νlar ≈ 0.8).
Received October 22, 2001; revised June 18, 2002; accepted June 23, 2002 相似文献