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1.
气温变化对人群健康有重要的影响。通过对美国县区人口加权的月平均温度的准确估计可以用于气温与人群健康行为以及疾病的关联关系研究,如基于以县区为单位的抽样或者报告数据。针对气温的估计,多数学者都采用ArcGIS软件,很少使用SAS这一统计软件。本文比较了两种地统计模型的性能,并在同一个CITGO平台上采用ArcGIS9.3和SAS9.2工具软件估算全美48个州县区月平均温度。来自全美5435个气温监测站点2007年1-12月的平均温度和站点的海拔高度被用于估算县区人口中心点的温度,其中海拔数据是作为协变量。通过调整决定系数R2、均方误差、均方根误差和处理时间等指标来比较模型的效能。在ArcGIS中独立验证预测准确性在11个月中都达到90%以上,SAS中12个月均达到90%以上。与ArcGIS协同克里格相比,SAS协同克里格插值能获得更高的准确性和较低的偏差。两个软件包对于县区水平的气温估计值呈现正相关(调整R2在0.95-0.99之间);通过引入海拔高度作为协变量,使准确性和精确性都得以改善。两种方法对于美国县区层面的气温估计都是可靠的,但ArcGIS在空间数据前期处理和处理时间上的优势,尤其在涉及多年或者多个州的项目中是软件选择上的重要考虑。  相似文献   

2.
In 1977, Taylor proposed a constant elasticity model relating capacity choice in mines to reserves. A test of this model using a very large (n = 1,195) dataset confirms its validity but obtains significantly different estimated values for the model coefficients. Capacity is somewhat inelastic with respect to reserves, with an elasticity of 0.65 estimated for open-pit plus block-cave underground mines and 0.56 for all other underground mines. These new estimates should be useful for capacity determinations as scoping studies and as a starting point for feasibility studies. The results are robust over a wide range of deposit types, deposit sizes, and time, consistent with physical constraints on mine capacity that are largely independent of technology.  相似文献   

3.
Weekly American Automobile Association reports on the numbers and types of gasoline station closings in 1974 and 1979 make it possible to estimate the overall severity for each shortage in each state. Comparisons of these estimates reveal significant regional differences in the size of the shortfalls. Statistical analyses and explanations for the geographic variations in the shortfalls have implications for the design of policies for coping with the shortages.  相似文献   

4.
Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r2 = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.  相似文献   

5.
利用2006-2009年5-9月科尔沁沙地固定沙丘0~150 cm土壤水体积分数监测数据及降水资料,采用偏度、峰度检验法检验了固定沙丘不同月及不同土层土壤水体积分数的正态性,并得到了其正态分布相关参数的估计值及其置信区间;同时,对不同土层、不同月及不同年间的土壤水体积分数变化和差异进行了分析。结果表明:(1)固定沙丘同一月的土壤水体积分数以显著性水平α=0.1通过正态分布的假设检验;固定沙丘土壤水体积分数的平均值范围1.82%~4.95%,主要集中在2%~4%;(2)受降水影响,固定沙丘7月土壤水体积分数较高,且与其他月的差异显著;7月土壤水体积分数均值和方差的点估计及置信水平为0.95的置信区间、统计特征均与其他月的有较大差异;(3)固定沙丘0~10 cm土壤水体积分数较低,且与其他土层有显著差异;而10~30 cm土壤水体积分数较高;(4)2008年土壤水体积分数较低,而2009年土壤水体积分数较高;除2007年与2008年土壤水体积分数没有显著差异外,其余年份间的土壤水体积分数均有显著差异。  相似文献   

6.
Two cores from Trout Lake, northern Yukon, yielded quantitative estimates of summer air temperatures using fossil midge larvae. Warming began around 14,400?cal?yr BP, with inferred mean July air temperatures reaching values warmer than present by 12,800?cal?yr BP. A 1?°C cooling from 12,200 to 11,200?cal?yr BP closely corresponds with the Younger Dryas chronozone. A broad temperature maximum occurred between 10,800 and 9,800?cal?yr BP, with mean July air temperature about 2.2?°C warmer than present. This represents an early Holocene thermal maximum and coincides with increased organic content of the sediment. Both the shallow- and deep-water cores show similar temperature trends for their overlapping periods. The inferred rise in mean July air temperature at 14,200?cal?yr BP coincides with a shift in vegetation from an herb- to shrub-dominated landscape. In contrast, the increase in Alnus pollen at 6,400?cal?yr BP does not coincide with a change in temperature, but may be a response to a rise in precipitation.  相似文献   

7.
"This article presents newly-available migration data from the 1990 U.S. census to assess immigration and internal migration components as they affect state poverty populations. New immigrant waves are heavily focused on only a few 'port-of-entry' states. It is suggested that these immigrants have begun to impact upon internal migration into and out of these 'high immigration states', and have also altered the national system of internal migration patterns. This article addresses three questions: How do the magnitudes of poverty population out-migration from high immigration states compare with those of other states? Is this out-migration selective on particular social and demographic groups? Is immigration a significant determinant of internal migration of the poor population? The results of this analysis are consistent with the view that recent, focused immigration is associated with out-migration among a state's poor longer-term residents."  相似文献   

8.
Quantitative palaeotemperature estimates for the earlier part of Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS-) 3 are inferred from subfossil chironomid remains. The high-latitudinal study site of Sokli, northeast Finland, provides for a unique lacustrine deposit covering the earlier part of OIS-3, and the chironomid remains found in the sediments show that a shallow lake with a diverse fauna was present at the study site throughout the record. Using a Norwegian calibration data set as a modern analogue, mean July air temperatures are reconstructed. The chironomid-inferred July air temperatures are surprisingly high, reaching values similar to the current temperature at the study site. Other proxies that were applied to the sediments included the analysis of botanical and zoological macro-remains, and our results concur with temperature estimates derived from climate indicator taxa. Summer temperatures for interstadial conditions, reconstructed with climate models, are as high as our proxy-based palaeotemperatures.  相似文献   

9.
This study employs (1) a simple econometric model to generate a time series of drilling footage to the year 2040 and (2) learning models to estimate the oil reserve additions from that drilling, given scenarios of oil price and projected U.S. population. Reserve additions are estimated separately for the lower 48 states and Alaska regions by estimating separate drilling footage and learning models for each region. Generally, the estimates of potential supply from undiscovered oil fields and from extensions of known fields are more optimistic than recent estimates by others. For a $1989 price of about $20/barrel (bbl), which is similar to recent prices, the potential supply of oil is estimated to be approximately 60.7 billion bbl, with 95-percent confidence bounds of 54.3 and 67.1 billion bbl. For a price of $25.50/bbl, potential supply is estimated to be approximately 82 billion bbl, with 95-percent confidence bounds of 74.5 and 89.5 billion bbl. Although estimates of potential oil supply for the entire United States are more optimistic than other recent estimates, the part of that supply estimated to be forthcoming from Alaska is smaller than other recent estimates: 2.3 and 3.3 billion bbl for prices of about $20 and $25.50 per barrel, respectively. Thus, reserve additions from the lower 48 states through development drilling and through improved recovery and production technologies will become increasingly important to future U.S. oil supply.  相似文献   

10.
Reliable estimates of Holocene temperatures are important for understanding past climate dynamics, the response of biota to climate change, and validating climate models. Chironomids in lake sediment cores are used widely to quantify past summer temperatures, for which high-latitude and/or high-altitude lakes, remote from human influence, are usually considered appropriate. Temperature inferences from lowland lakes are likely influenced by other variables, specifically eutrophication and industrial pollution, but their reliability has never been tested. We used a Norwegian chironomid-based transfer function (r 2 = 0.91; RMSEP = 1.01 °C) to infer mean July air temperature over the last 200 years, using chironomid assemblages in a core collected from a polluted, nutrient-enriched lake at Speke Hall, Liverpool, England. The chironomid-inferred temperatures correlate significantly with the local instrumental temperature record and follow long-term national temperature trends. These results show that chironomids can be used to produce reliable estimates of past mean July air temperature, even when other variables have also influenced the composition of the chironomid community. These findings underline the value of chironomids as sensitive and reliable quantitative proxies for summer temperature.  相似文献   

11.
ABSTRACT

Online mapping providers offer unprecedented access to spatial data and analytical tools; however, the number of analytical queries that can be requested is usually limited. As such, Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) services offer a viable alternative, provided that the quality of the underlying spatialtheir data is adequate. In this paper, we evaluate the agreement in travel impedance between estimates from MapQuest Open, which embraces OpenStreetMap (OSM) data–a is based on VGI datasetfrom OpenStreetMap (OSM), and estimates from two other popular commercial providers, namely Google Maps? and ArcGIS? Online. Our framework is articulated around three components, which simulates potentialcalculates shortest routes, estimates their travel impedance using a routing service Application Program Interface (API), and extracts the average number of contributors for each route. We develop an experimental setup with a simulated dataset for the state of North Carolina. Our results suggest a strong correlation of travel impedance among all three road network providers. and that travel impedanceThe agreement is the greatest in areas with a denser road network and the smallest for routes of shorter distances. Most importantly, tTravel estimates from MapQuest Open are nearly identical to both commercial providers when the average number of OSM contributors along the route is larger. The latter finding contributes to a growing body of literature on Linus’s law, recognizing that a larger group of contributors holds the potential to validate and correct inherent errors to the source dataset.  相似文献   

12.
生态系统服务弹性敏感性系数的合理性与决策属性探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
丁振民  姚顺波 《地理科学》2019,39(10):1672-1679
在经济学弹性基本概念的基础之上,采用数学推导的方式重点探讨3种生态系统服务弹性敏感性评价模型的合理性与决策属性。研究结果表明：① Kreuter敏感性系数大小始终为0~1;在极限形式下,生态系统服务价值变率函数与Kreuter敏感性系数具有相同的数学表达式与值域;所以这两种敏感性评价模型把1作为是否敏感的评价标准并不合适。生态系统服务交叉敏感性系数不符合一般意义上的“交叉敏感性”的概念,并且其计算公式不符合弹性的基本定义。② 弹性敏感性计算方式适用于随机变量间的研究,不适用于具有确定性关系的变量;生态系统服务框架下的3种弹性敏感性系数均建立在具有确定性关系的生态系统服务价值计算公式的基础之上,导致其敏感性计算结果缺乏深层次的决策属性。  相似文献   

13.
This paper analyzes energy efficiency of the industrial corn-ethanol cycle. In particular, it critically evaluates earlier publications by DOE, USDA, and UC Berkeley Energy Resources Group. It is demonstrated that most of the current First Law net-energy models of the industrial corn-ethanol cycle are based on nonphysical assumptions and should be viewed with caution. In particular, these models do not (i) define the system boundaries, (ii) conserve mass, and (iii) conserve energy. The energy cost of producing and refining carbon fuels in real time, for example, corn and ethanol, is high relative to that of fossil fuels deposited and concentrated over geological time. Proper mass and energy balances of corn fields and ethanol refineries that account for the photosynthetic energy, part of the environment restoration work, and the coproduct energy have been formulated. These balances show that energetically production of ethanol from corn is 2–4 times less favorable than production of gasoline from petroleum. From thermodynamics it also follows that ecological damage wrought by industrial biofuel production must be severe. With the DDGS coproduct energy credit, 3.9 gallons of ethanol displace on average the energy in 1 gallon of gasoline. Without the DDGS energy credit, this average number is 6.2 gallons of ethanol. Equivalent CO2 emissions from corn ethanol are some 50% higher than those from gasoline, and become 100% higher if methane emissions from cows fed with DDGS are accounted for. From the mass balance of soil it follows that ethanol coproducts should be returned to the fields.
Tad W. PatzekEmail:
  相似文献   

14.
Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.  相似文献   

15.
When geographically aggregated data are included in hedonic models, the resulting coefficients are biased by the spatial scale and spatial configuration of variable measurement. We explore the effects of this modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) within the context of hedonic price models with an individual-level dependent variable. Specifically, we developed standard and spatial hedonic regression models in order to examine the effects of the MAUP on model fit and coefficient estimates. Our empirical analysis documents several significant scale and zoning effects in the hedonic modeling framework. First, neighborhood characteristics are clearly important in efforts to improve model fit—and they are more significant contributors in the standard model than in the spatial hedonic model. For aggregation scale, the model fit change of the standard model is relatively large, whereas the change is more modest for spatial models. The patterns of change in model fit for standard and spatial hedonic models clearly diverge from one another, implying the existence of a scale level showing a maximum functional range of the submarket on which scale dependencies are expected to have an impact. Regarding the zoning effect, the model fits for both standard and spatial hedonic models vary according to the submarket systems.  相似文献   

16.
Shock-compressed MgO radiates thermally at temperatures between 2900 and 3700 K in the 170–200 GPa pressure range. A simple energy-transport model of the shocked-MgO-targets distinguishes between different shock-induced radiation sources in these targets and provides estimates of spectral absorption-coefficients, α ΛMgO, for shocked MgO (e.g. at 203 GPa, α ΛMgO˜ 630, 7500, 4200 and 3800 m−1, at 450, 600, 750 and 900 nm, respectively). The experimentally inferred temperatures of the shock-compressed states of MgO are consistent with temperatures calculated for MgO assuming that (1) it deforms as an elastic fluid, (2) has a Dulong-Petit value for specific heat at constant volume in its shocked state, and (3) undergoes no phase transformation below 200 GPa.  相似文献   

17.
Spatial uncertainty analysis is a complex and difficult task for orebody estimation in the mining industry. Conventional models (kriging and its variants) with variogram-based statistics fail to capture the spatial complexity of an orebody. Due to this, the grade and tonnage are incorrectly estimated resulting in inaccurate mine plans, which lead to costly financial decision. Multiple-point geostatistical simulation model can overcome the limitations of the conventional two-point spatial models. In this study, a multiple-point geostatistical method, namely SNESIM, was applied to generate multiple equiprobable orebody models for a copper deposit in Africa, and it helped to analyze the uncertainty of ore tonnage of the deposit. The grade uncertainty was evaluated by sequential Gaussian simulation within each equiprobable orebody models. The results were validated by reproducing the marginal distribution and two- and three-point statistics. The results show that deviations of volume of the simulated orebody models vary from ? 3 to 5% compared to the training image. The grade simulation results demonstrated that the average grades from the different simulation are varied from 3.77 to 4.92% and average grade 4.33%. The results also show that the volume and grade uncertainty model overestimates the orebody volume as compared to the conventional orebody. This study demonstrates that incorporating grade and volume uncertainty leads to significant changes in resource estimates.  相似文献   

18.
Four years of bi-monthly topographic surveys have been conducted on a 350 m stretch of the meso- to macro-tidal Truc Vert beach, France. Here we study the dynamics of both the inner bar and the upper part of the beach where a berm can develop in the presence of fair weather conditions. For the inner bar, the occurrences of the different states within the intermediate classification, following that of Wright and Short (Wright, L.D., Short, A.D. 1984. Morphodynamic variability of surf zones and beaches: a synthesis. Marine Geology 56, 93–118), are presented and compared to other sites in both micro- and meso-tidal environments. The results show a similar frequency of occurrence of the Transverse Bar and Rip (TBR) state, while the more dissipative states, Rhythmic Bar and Beach (RBB) and Longshore Bar and Trough (LBT), are less regularly observed despite the high wave energy levels. The LBT and RBB states are also observed in the presence of fair weather conditions and the TBR state can persist during very energetic events. Similar results are also observed with the upper beach dynamics. Very energetic events are not necessarily associated with erosion while and low-energy events are not necessarily accompanied by accretion. The conditions given here indicate, that berm development occurs preferentially when the beach morphology exhibits a TBR or a LTT state. Apart from the control exerted by offshore wave conditions, the beach state and berm development patterns exhibited by Truc Vert beach are also discussed within the framework of possible morphological (morphodynamic) feedback and of the influence of the meso- to macrotidal range which modulates the type, intensity and duration of the wave processes operating on the cross-shore profile.  相似文献   

19.
Guatemala and Haiti are two of the most food insecure nations in the Western Hemisphere. Measurements of food availability and access are instrumental in developing targeted hunger reduction strategies yet no estimates of cropped area (a critical input in the calculation of food production) at either a national or sub-national-level exist. The purpose of this research is to produce estimates of cropped area for Guatemala and Haiti using an area frame sampling approach and very high resolution (∼1 m) satellite imagery. Related research has combined livelihood data with topographic information to construct cropped area estimates in other settings using generalized additive models. We expand this approach with the inclusion of specific population variables in place of the livelihood data. We produce estimates of cropped area for the two countries and sub-national units and our results highlight the significance and complexity of incorporating explicit population characteristics into models of cropped area.  相似文献   

20.
An equation of state was used to prepare a standard table for the solubility of oxygen in sodium chloride sobutions at temperatures between 0 and 35°C and for concentrations up to saturation (260 ppt). The uncertainty introduced by linear interpolation between DO values in the table is less than the experimental uncertainty of data which was used to generate the equation of state. Where pressures differ from 1 atm the DO value from the table can be corrected provided the equilibrium vapour pressure of the salt solution is known. Where this is not the case an approximate correction (±0.5 per cent) can be used provided atmospheric pressure is in the range 950 to 1030 mbar. Predictions made using the standard tables will provide near but probably low (<0.2 mg L−1) estimates of DO in salt lakes where sodium chloride is the dominant electrolyte (>70 per cent by mass).  相似文献   

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