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1.
The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Full scientific evaluation of proposed earthquake precursors for earthquake prediction is a problem because independent testing is difficult or impossible. To approach this difficulty, and to assess the current state of the art of earthquake prediction research, IASPEI has devised a peer-review procedure for precursor evaluation. The procedure does not consider predictions of impending earthquakes, but evaluates case histories of proposed precursors for past events according to stated validation criteria, which are specified in terms of guidelines concerning the hypothesized physical model, data quality, anomaly definition, the rules of association of precursor with earthquake, and statistical significance. So far, five precursors have been placed on a preliminary list of significant earthquake precursors, although none has satisfied the validation criteria well enough to ensure that their placement is permanent. Exclusion of a precursor from the list does not mean it is useless, but further work is required if it is to become convincing. The main objectives in producing the list are to establish a consensus on the criteria which a precursor must satisfy to be recognized as validated, and to find case histories which satisfy these criteria. Further nominations of precursor candidates are requested for evaluation by the IASPEI procedure. 相似文献
2.
中国的地震频率高，旅游景区分布广泛，地震的发生常常给震源附近的景区带来风险，景区的地震风险评估研究就尤为必要。在地震及风险相关理论研究和3A级及以上景区分布特征分析的基础上，利用地震动峰值加速度这一参数表征地震危险性，运用ArcGIS软件将地震动峰值加速度区划图和中国3A级及以上景区分布图叠加分析景区的暴露性，并采用风险评估的基本模型计算得到中国3A级及以上景区的地震风险评估结果。最终表明，从各省域的角度看，我国大部分地区的景区地震风险等级较低，江苏省、甘肃省景区地震风险较高，北京市景区地震风险最高。根据评估结果从三个角度分析了3A级及以上景区的地震风险分布态势并有针对性地提出应对策略。 相似文献
3.
Far-field simulation of the 1946 Aleutian tsunami 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We present hydrodynamic far-field simulations of the Aleutian tsunami of 1946 April 1, using both a dislocation source representing a slow earthquake and a dipolar one modelling a large landslide. The earthquake source is derived from the recent seismological study by López and Okal, while the landslide source was previously used to explain the exceptional run-up at Scotch Cap in the near field. The simulations are compared to a field data set previously compiled from testimonies of elderly witnesses at 27 far-field locations principally in the Austral and Marquesas Islands, with additional sites at Pitcairn, Easter and Juan Fernández. We find that the data set is modelled satisfactorily by the dislocation source, while the landslide fails to match the measured amplitudes, and to give a proper rendition of the physical interaction of the wavefield with the shore, in particular at Nuku Hiva, Marquesas. The emerging picture is that the event involved both a very slow earthquake, responsible for the far-field tsunami, and a major landslide explaining the near-field run-up, but with a negligible contribution in the far field. 相似文献
4.
汶川特大地震导致了青川县乔庄镇(主城区)遭遇了较为惨重的特大灾难.县城的恢复重建工作受到地震断裂、山体变形、强烈的余震活动等严重制约.尤其是地震断裂问题,更是对能否原址重建起决定性作用.在参考以往研究成果的基础上,结合实地调查,对该镇的地震断裂问题进行了评估,确定了青川-平武断裂(龙门山后山断裂主断裂之一)分三条分支断裂(北支断裂、中间断裂、南支断裂)穿过乔庄镇主城区的大致方位和走势,并且现场发现该三条分支断裂均发生了不同程度的地震破裂(如地表破裂,山体震裂等),已逐渐发展成为中强震的孕震构造. 相似文献
5.
Yih-Min Wu Hiroo Kanamori Richard M. Allen Egill Hauksson 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,170(2):711-717
We explore a practical approach to earthquake early warning in southern California by determining a ground-motion period parameter τ c and a high-pass filtered displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 s of the P waveforms recorded at the Southern California Seismic Network stations for earthquakes with M > 4.0. At a given site, we estimate the magnitude of an event from τ c and the peak ground-motion velocity ( PGV ) from Pd . The incoming three-component signals are recursively converted to ground acceleration, velocity and displacement. The displacements are recursively filtered with a one-way Butterworth high-pass filter with a cut-off frequency of 0.075 Hz, and a P -wave trigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τ c and Pd are computed. We found the relationship between τ c and magnitude ( M ) for southern California, and between Pd and PGV for both southern California and Taiwan. These two relationships can be used to detect the occurrence of a major earthquake and provide onsite warning in the area around the station where onset of strong ground motion is expected within seconds after the arrival of the P wave. When the station density is high, the methods can be applied to multistation data to increase the robustness of onsite early warning and to add the regional warning approach. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10 s of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last for tens of seconds. 相似文献
6.
Likelihood analysis of earthquake catalogues 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Y. Y. Kagan 《Geophysical Journal International》1991,106(1):135-148
We apply several classes of stochastic multidimensional models to statistical analysis of earthquake catalogues using likelihood methods. We investigate the importance of including different earthquake parameters in the model: epicentral coordinates, hypocentral depth, time limits for interearthquake interaction, and especially spatial distribution of earthquakes as well as spatial aftershock patterns. Results of this study combined with other investigations, suggest that most distributions controlling earthquake interaction have a fractal or scale-invariant form. Developed models are used for statistical analysis of several earthquake catalogues to evaluate parameters of earthquake occurrence. These parameters are shown to be similar for shallow earthquakes of different magnitude ranges and seismogenic regions, confirming self-similarity of the earthquake process. Whereas intermediate earthquakes seem to emulate the pattern of shallow earthquake occurrence, albeit at a much smaller aftershock rate, deep earthquakes differ significantly in their properties. Predictability of standard shallow earthquake catalogues has been analysed; we present evidence that for the best available catalogues the predictability is close to 10 bits per earthquake. Several synthetic earthquake catalogues have been created and processed through the likelihood inversion scheme. The results from likelihood analysis of these catalogues confirm our approach. 相似文献
7.
日本311特大地震地理学报告 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
应用日本东北地理学会311 地震研究报告资料进行整理完成,系统介绍了这次特大地震的灾情、灾区概况、4 大灾区不同特征、灾害对经济社会的冲击,尤其注重老年少子社会劳动力、汽车主导产业、海洋特色产业、医疗设施和中心城市仙台的影响。 相似文献
8.
Earthquake magnitude prediction is of vital importance for human safety. The earthquake is a very complicated and non-linear dynamic process. It cannot be described adequately by any deterministic models. In this paper a neural dynamic modelling for earthquake magnitude prediction is reported. Historical records of earthquake magnitude series are used to construct the optimal non-linear dynamic model, and the consequent outcome of the earthquake behaviour is then predicted by this model. In turn, the latest recorded data set can be fed back to improve the accuracy of the neural dynamic model. The modelling of experiments of three earthquake magnitude series in China and Japan and their extrapolated predictions are included in this paper. The values predicted by extrapolation are in good agreement with the historical data. 相似文献
9.
1986年3月30日至12月25日为期271天的冬季地震观测中,中国南极长城站地震台共记录到各种震动3000余次,其中大部分为长城湾冰层破裂产生的微震,4次为南设得兰群岛邻近海域中的浅源地震以及5月7日阿留申群岛发生的8.1级地震和4月14日南桑韦奇群岛发生的6.4级地震。冰震与构造地震具有明显的差异。1986年11月16日的地震记录为分析冰震与构造地震的区别提供了很好的例证。冰震具有初动尖锐、频率高和衰减快的特征。根据初动和波型很容易将冰震与构造地震区分开。 相似文献
10.
利用NOAA／AVHRR资料，通过遥感图象处理、地表温度反演、空间统计分析等技术方法。分析姚安6．5级地震震前的热红外温度变化。对计算结果的单点采样比较和面域剖面分析表明，2000年1月15日姚安6．5级地震前，震区出现了明显的热红外持续增温；震前两天热红外温度与地震平静时段的同期同区域温度相比出现了大面积的3℃0℃的正值区域；与同期温度背景场相比，在断裂附近震区增温仍较明显。研究还表明，将卫星热红外辐射技术用于实际地震预报还需要解决两个重要问题：一是资料的时间连续性问题；二是热红外异常与地震的孕育、发生的定量关系问题。 相似文献
11.
A highly significant seismic quiescence with a standard deviate Z = 10.1. corresponding to a 99 per cent confidence level, lasted from 1987.7 up to the 1990 February 20 Izu-Oshima M 6.5 earthquake. The quiescent volume had dimensions of 30 km N-S and 10 km E-W and was centred below 14 km depth. Within the recently upgraded seismograph network of the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), this main shock was the only one with a magnitude M > 5.8 in the upper 30 km of the crust for which the precursory quiescence hypothesis could be tested. Within a radius of 50 km, and during the observation period (1983.5–1995.9), there were no other 1.5 yr or longer periods of quiescence that were rated Z > 6.5 in the declustered earthquake catalogue, except one that was associated with volcanic activity. The total space-time covered by alarms, including the volcanic one, was less than 1 per cent at the Z = 6.5 level. The rarity of highly significant episodes of quiescence, and the correlation in space and time suggest that a precursory seismic quiescence started 2.5 yr before the Izu-Oshima 1990 earthquake in its source volume and to the north of it, and that it can be recognized with an alarm level of Z = 6.0, generating no false alarms. During the 1.5 yr quiescence window, only 10 earthquakes occurred in the quiet volume, whereas 50 events were expected based on the rate seen at other times. In randomly selected volumes containing 50, 100 and 200 events, the anomaly scored Z = 6.1 to 10.1. On the basis of the data from May 1983 to 1995, there is no highly significant quiescence currently present in the Izu-Oshima area. 相似文献
12.
Temporal changes in shear-wave splitting at an isolated swarm of small earthquakes in 1992 near Dongfang, Hainan Island, southern China 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
Yuan Gao Peide Wang Sihua Zheng Ming Wang Yuntai Chen & Huilan Zhou 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,135(1):102-112
An isolated swarm of small earthquakes occurred in 1992, near Dongfang on Hainan Island, southern China. The Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau of China, monitored the swarm with five DCS-302 digital accelerometers for three months from 1992 June 1. 18 earthquakes, with magnitudes M L ranging from 1.8 to 3.6, were well located by five stations, and shear-wave splitting varying azimuthally was analysed on 27 seismic records from these events. The mean polarization azimuth of the faster shear wave was WNW. Time delays between the split shear waves at two stations varied with time and space. The time delays at one station fell abruptly after earthquakes of magnitudes 3.1 and 3.6, but did not change significantly at the second station. This behaviour is consistent with the delay-time changes being caused by changes in the aspect ratio of vertical liquid-filled (EDA) cracks. Thus, the variation in shear-wave-splitting time delay could be due to changes in crustal stress related to nearby small-magnitude earthquake activity. The connection between earthquake activity and crustal stress variation measured by shear-wave splitting leaves the door open for possible observations of crustal stress transients related to the onset of an earthquake; however, our data cannot be considered as definite evidence for such precursors. 相似文献
13.
航空摄影技术在地震灾害监测与评估中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
随着城市化的进展,地震给人类带来的灾难愈加严重,在地震监测预报、抗震救灾、灾后评估与重建等环节需要发挥各种科技手段,为灾害的防控和灾后重建提供强有力的支持.航空摄影技术作为对地观测技术之一,在地震灾害监测、评估中具有不可替代的作用.文中重点讨论了目前航空摄影技术系统构成及其在地震灾害监测、评估中的应用,提出航空摄影技术系统应作为国家和地方灾害应急管理体系支撑技术之一,纳入地震等突发性、区域性灾害应急预案管理. 相似文献
14.
We use teleseismic waveform analysis and locally recorded aftershock data to investigate the source processes of the 2004 Baladeh earthquake, which is the only substantial earthquake to have occurred in the central Alborz mountains of Iran in the modern instrumental era. The earthquake involved slip at 10–30 km depth, with a south-dipping aftershock zone also restricted to the range 10–30 km, which is unusually deep for Iran. These observations are consistent with co-seismic slip on a south-dipping thrust that projects to the surface at the sharp topographic front on the north side of the Alborz. This line is often called the Khazar Fault, and is assumed to be a south-dipping thrust which bounds the north side of the Alborz range and the south side of the South Caspian Basin, though its actual structure and significance are not well understood. The lack of shallower aftershocks may be due to the thick pile of saturated, overpressured sediments in the South Caspian basin that are being overthrust by the Alborz. A well-determined earthquake slip vector, in a direction different from the overall shortening direction across the range determined by GPS, confirms a spatial separation ('partitioning') of left-lateral strike-slip and thrust faulting in the Alborz. These strike-slip and thrust fault systems do not intersect within the seismogenic layer on the north side, though they may do so on the south. The earthquake affected the capital, Tehran, and reveals a seismic threat posed by earthquakes north of the Alborz, located on south-dipping thrusts, as well as by earthquakes on the south side of the range, closer to the city. 相似文献
15.
云南省地震与太阳活动的统计关系研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
地震与太阳活动的关系是研究活动性和地震预测中有意义的课题。作者选取云南省及周边地区1965～2006年2级以上地震为样本,使用时间序列分析方法和相关分析方法对地震与太阳黑子、耀斑的相关性进行了研究,得到中小地震为主的样本与太阳活动不相关、大地震与太阳活动存在弱相关性的结论。作者的结论与以往研究者的结论不同,原因在于以往的研究者使用大震强震为样本,样本数少,得到的结论存在不可避免的偶然性。因此在一个地方具备发生大地震的内在条件时,关注太阳活动也是十分必要的。 相似文献
16.
强震群活动构造环境比较研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
将1997-1998年新疆伽师6.0～6.6级强震群与国内外14例5.1～8.7级强震群的活动构造环境比较研究后发现,强震群持时25min～3a,强震群区的地震活动多具重复性,发震构造多为刚性地块共轭隐伏破裂。强震群为板内浅源地震。 相似文献
17.
Summary. The Lleyn Peninsular earthquake which occurred at 0656 on 1984 July 19 was recorded at three medium aperture seismological array stations located at teleseismic distances. From these recordings an estimate is made of the hypocentre, origin time, magnitude and fault-plane solution of the earthquake. The fault-plane solution was determined using the Pearce algorithm and indicates that the focal mechanism is predominantly strike-slip. The fault-plane solution was used to generate synthetic seismograms for comparison with the observed to confirm the nature of the source and in particular the depth of focus which was estimated to be 20.5 km. It is concluded that the determination of the earthquake parameters using only three teleseismic seismograms is in good agreement with the results obtained from an analysis of 45 local and regional seismological stations. 相似文献
18.
地震灾害死亡人口快速评估方法对比研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
中国是世界上地震活动最为频繁的国家之一,属于地震多发区。在收集分析国内外关于地震灾害死亡人口评估模型的基础上,选取10种模型以2000年以来中国典型地震灾害为案例验证其适用性。结果表明：① 对于5.7级（含）以下地震,10种模型的评估结果基本都在合理范围内,可采用各评估结果的区间值来支撑应急决策;5.7~6.6级（含）地震,10种评估方法得到的结果表现出不同程度的偏差,可采用多数评估结果指向的死亡人口数量级来支撑应急决策;6.6级以上地震,则只能采用有特定适用范围的基于结构易损性的评估结果来支撑应急决策,且也存在较大的不确定性。② 从地震灾害人员伤亡动态评估方法、地震—地质灾害死亡人口快速评估方法和快速评估软件系统方面进行了相关讨论。此研究可为地震灾害死亡人口快速评估模型的改进与发展提供借鉴。 相似文献
19.
20.
We explore the possibility of determining the actual fault plane of an earthquake from the inversion of near-source displacement seismograms of one station when a finite-dimension source is used instead of a point source model and when the complete displacement is taken into account, including near-field waves. Tests on synthetic seismograms and real data recorded at local distances show that this is possible even with a single, three-component station. A single accelerogram available for the Erzincan, Turkey, 1992 March 13, M s = 6.8 earthquake is inverted and the solution found is compatible with other seismological studies and with the mechanism expected for the North Anatolian Fault. 相似文献