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1.
A model for the prediction of topographic and climatic control on shallow landsliding in mountainous terrain is enhanced to analyse the impact of upslope rocky outcrops on downslope shallow landsliding. The model uses a ‘generalised quasi-dynamic wetness index’ to describe runoff propagation on bare rock surfaces connected to downslope soil-mantled topographic elements. This approach yields a simple enhanced model capable of describing the influence of upslope bedrock outcrops on the pattern of downslope soil saturation. The model is applied in both diagnostic and predictive modes to a small catchment in the eastern Italian Alps for which a detailed inventory of shallow landslides in areas dominated by rocky outcrops is available. In the diagnostic mode, the model is used with satisfactory results to reproduce the pattern of instability generated by an intense short-duration storm occurred on 14 September 1994, which triggered a large percentage of the surveyed landslides. In the predictive mode, the model is used for hazard assessment, and the return time of the critical rainfall needed to cause instability for each topographic element is determined. Modelling results obtained in the predictive mode are evaluated against all the surveyed landslides. It is revealed that the generalised quasi-dynamic model offers considerable improvement over the non-generalised quasi-dynamic model and the steady-state model in predicting existing landslides as represented in the considered landslide inventory.  相似文献   

2.
The aim of this work is the determination of regional-scale rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in the Tuscany Region(Italy).The critical rainfall events related to the occurrence of 593 past landslides were characterized in terms of duration(D) and intensity(I).I and D values were plotted in a log-log diagram and a lower boundary was clearly noticeable:it was interpreted as a threshold representing the rainfall conditions associated to landsliding.That was also confirmed by a comparison with many literature thresholds,but at the same time it was clear that a similar threshold would be affected by a too large approximation to be effectively used for a regional warning system.Therefore,further analyses were performed differentiating the events on the basis of seasonality,magnitude,location,land use and lithology.None of these criteria led to discriminate among all the events different groups to be characterized by a specific and more effective threshold.This outcome could be interpreted as the demonstration that at regional scale the best results are obtained by the simplest ap-proach,in our case an empirical black box model which accounts only for two rainfall pa-rameters(I and D).So a set of thresholds could be conveniently defined using a statistical approach:four thresholds corresponding to four severity levels were defined by means of the prediction interval technique and we developed a prototype warning system based on rainfall recordings or weather forecasts.  相似文献   

3.
In southeastern Sicily, the distribution pattern of earthquake-triggered landslides is inconsistent with historically known seismic activity. In particular, historical seismicity has been stronger in the eastern sector, while earthquake-triggered landsliding is much more developed in the western sector, and this contrasts with expectations. This paper describes the patterns of seismicity and landsliding, and tackles the problem of whether greater landsliding in the western sector may be due (a) to seismicity of the eastern sector or (b) to a high-magnitude, low-recurrence seismicity generated in the western sector itself. It is statistically shown that lithostructural characteristics of rock masses and geometry of hillslopes cannot justify, either singly or jointly, greater landsliding in the western sector if triggering earthquakes are generated in the eastern sector. As a consequence, it is possible that landsliding of the western sector is due to earthquakes generated locally, but having higher magnitude and longer recurrence intervals than historically observed.  相似文献   

4.
Santiago Beguería   《Geomorphology》2006,74(1-4):196-206
The Pyrenees, like many other mountain areas in Europe, have experienced depopulation and land abandonment during the 20th century. This has encouraged vegetation recovery in formerly occupied areas, including reforestation to promote woodland. The objective of this study is to analyse the effects of these changes on shallow landsliding, a process responsible for erosion and land degradation in many mountain areas. A sequence of aerial images reveals a slight decrease in the landslide occurrence rate in the last half of the 20th century and a parallel increase in the landslide extinction rate, i.e. the rate at which evidence of landslide activity is removed by vegetation colonisation. A logistic regression routine was used to assess the influence of land use and vegetation recovery in the occurrence of shallow landslides. The result shows that the former arable fields on the valley slopes still facilitate landsliding, even after land abandonment and revegetation by shrubs or trees. A shift in the topographic location of landslides was also detected, pointing to an increased importance of water redistribution in the slopes after prolonged rainfall periods.  相似文献   

5.
《Geomorphology》2003,49(1-2):71-88
Knowledge of long-term average rates of erosion is necessary if factors affecting sediment yields from catchments are to be understood. Without such information, it is not possible to assess the potential influence of extreme storms, and, therefore, to evaluate the relative importance of various components of a sediment budget. A study of the sediment budget for the Waipaoa catchment, North Island, New Zealand, included evaluation of long-term rates of landsliding for six landslide-prone land systems in the catchment. The number of landslides per unit area generated by each of several storms was counted on sequential aerial photographs and correlated with the magnitude of the corresponding storm. The resulting relationships were combined with magnitude–frequency relationships derived for storms from 70- to 100-year rainfall records in the area to estimate a long-term magnitude–frequency relationship for landsliding for each land system. The long-term average values of the areal landslide frequency (number of slides per unit area per unit time) were then calculated from these relationships. The volumes of a sample of landslide scars were measured in the field, and the proportion of slides that deliver sediment to channels was determined from aerial photographs. These measurements then allowed calculation of the long-term average rate of sediment production to streams from landslides for different land systems and types of vegetation. Results suggest that shallow landslides currently contribute about 15±5% of the suspended sediment load in the Waipaoa River above the Kanakanaia gauging station, and that 75% of the sediment production from the landslides occurs during storms with recurrence intervals of less than 27 years. Reforestation of 6.3% (93 km2) of the slide-prone lands in the catchment between 1990 and 1995 resulted in a calculated decrease in slide-derived sediment of 10%. Calculations suggest that reforestation of an additional 3% (66 km2) of the catchment in areas with the most sensitive combinations of land system and storm regime could decrease the total sediment inputs from landsliding by about 20%.  相似文献   

6.
The Mw 7.6 October 8, 2005 Kashmir earthquake triggered several thousand landslides throughout the Himalaya of northern Pakistan and India. These were concentrated in six different geomorphic–geologic–anthropogenic settings. A spatial database, which included 2252 landslides, was developed and analyzed using ASTER satellite imagery and geographical information system (GIS) technology. A multi-criterion evaluation was applied to determine the significance of event-controlling parameters in triggering the landslides. The parameters included lithology, faults, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, land cover, rivers and roads. The results showed four classes of landslide susceptibility. Furthermore, they indicated that lithology had the strongest influence on landsliding, particularly when the rock is highly fractured, such as in shale, slate, clastic sediments, and limestone and dolomite. Moreover, the proximity of the landslides to faults, rivers, and roads was also an important factor in helping to initiate failures. In addition, landslides occurred particularly in moderate elevations on south facing slopes. Shrub land, grassland, and also agricultural land were highly susceptible to failures, while forested slopes had few landslides. One-third of the study area was highly or very highly susceptible to future landsliding and requires immediate mitigation action. The rest of the region had a low or moderate susceptibility to landsliding and remains relatively stable. This study supports the view that (1) earthquake-triggered landslides are concentrated in specific zones associated with event-controlling parameters; and (2) in the western Himalaya deforestation and road construction contributed significantly to landsliding during and shortly after earthquakes.  相似文献   

7.
Landslides are common in steep mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life. Average population density is high, 422 people/km2, and is increasing. This increase in population density is accompanied by growing stress on the natural environment and physical infrastructure. As a result, human populations are more vulnerable to landslide hazards. The Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo study areas range in surface area from 276 to 350 km2 and represent the climatologic, geographic, and geologic conditions that typify Puerto Rico. Maps of recent landslides developed from 1:20,000-scale aerial photographs, in combination with a computerized geographic information system, were used to evaluate the frequency and distribution of shallow landslides in these areas. Several types of landslides were documented—rainfall-triggered debris flows, shallow soil slips, and slumps were most abundant. Hillslopes in the study area that have been anthropogenically modified, exceed 12° in gradient, are greater than 300 m in elevation, and face the east-northeast, are most prone to landsliding. A set of simplified matrices representing geographic conditions in the three study areas was developed and provides a basis for the estimation of the spatial controls on the frequency of landslides in Puerto Rico. This approach is an example of an analysis of the frequency of landslides that is computationally simple, and therefore, may be easily transferable to other settings.  相似文献   

8.
The work aims at identifying susceptible areas and pluviometric triggering scenarios at a regional scale in Calabria (Italy), with reference to shallow landsliding events. The proposed methodology follows a statistical approach and uses a database linked to a GIS that has been created to support the various steps of spatial data management and manipulation. The shallow landslide predisposing factors taken into account are derived from (i) the 40-m digital terrain model of the region, an  15,075 km2 extension; (ii) outcropping lithology; (iii) soils; and (iv) land use. More precisely, a map of the slopes has been drawn from the digital terrain model. Two kinds of covers [prevalently coarse-grained (CG cover) or fine-grained (FG cover)] were identified, referring to the geotechnical characteristics of geomaterial covers and to the lithology map; soilscapes were drawn from soil maps; and finally, the land use map was employed without any prior processing.Subsequently, the inventory maps of some shallow landsliding events, totaling more than 30,000 instabilities of the past and detected by field surveys and photo aerial restitution, were employed to calibrate the relative importance of these predisposing factors.The use of single factors (first level analysis) therefore provides three different susceptibility maps. Second level analysis, however, enables better location of areas susceptible to shallow landsliding events by crossing the single susceptibility maps.On the basis of the susceptibility map obtained by the second level analysis, five different classes of susceptibility to shallow landsliding events have been outlined over the regional territory: 8.9% of the regional territory shows very high susceptibility, 14.3% high susceptibility, 15% moderate susceptibility, 3.6% low susceptibility, and finally, about 58% very low susceptibility.Finally, the maps of two significant shallow landsliding events of the past and their related rainfalls have been utilized to identify the relevant pluviometric triggering scenarios. By using 205 daily rainfall series, different triggering pluviometric scenarios have been identified with reference to CG and FG covers: a value of 365 mm of the total rainfall of the event and/or 170 mm/d of the rainfall maximum intensity and a value of 325 mm of the total rainfall of the event and/or 158 mm/d of the rainfall maximum intensity are able to trigger shallow landsliding events for CG and FG covers, respectively.The results obtained from this study can help administrative authorities to plan future development activities and mitigation measures in shallow landslide-prone areas. In addition, the proposed methodology can be useful in managing emergency situations at a regional scale for shallow landsliding events triggered by intense rainfalls; through this approach, the susceptibility and the pluviometric triggering scenario maps will be improved by means of finer calibration of the involved factors.  相似文献   

9.
Landslides are frequent natural disasters in mountainous regions, particularly in the Himalayas in India during the southwest monsoon season. Although scientific study of landslides has been in progress for years, no significant achievement has been made to preclude landsliding and allay disasters. This research was undertaken to understand the areal distribution of landslides based on geological formations and geomorphological processes, and to provide more precise information regarding slope instability and mechanisms of failure. After completing a landslide inventory, prepared through field investigation and satellite image analysis, 493 landslides, comprising 131 investigated in the field and 362 identified from satellite imagery, were identified and mapped. The areal distribution of these landslides shows that sites more prone to landsliding have moderate to steep slopes, the lithology of the Lesser Himalayan formations, and excavations for road corridors. Landslide susceptibility zones were delineated for the area using the weight-of-evidence method on the basis of the frequency and distribution of landslides. Weights of selected variables were computed on the basis of severity of triggering factors. The accuracy of landslide susceptibility zones, calculated statistically (R2 = .93), suggests high accuracy of the model for predicting landsliding in the area.  相似文献   

10.
Since European settlement 160 years ago, much of the indigenous forest in New Zealand hill country has been cleared for pastoral agriculture, resulting in increased erosion and sedimentation. To prioritise soil conservation work in the Manawatu–Wanganui region, we developed a model of landslide susceptibility. It assigns high susceptibility to steep land not protected by woody vegetation and low susceptibility everywhere else, following the commonly used approach for identifying inappropriate land use. A major storm on 15–16 February 2004 that produced many landslides was used to validate the model. The model predicted hills at risk to landsliding with moderate accuracy: 58% of erosion scars in the February storm occurred on hillsides considered to be susceptible. The model concept of slope thresholds, above which the probability of landsliding is high and below which the probability is low, is not adequate because below 30° the probability of landsliding is approximately linearly related to slope. Thus, reforestation of steep slopes will need to be combined with improved vegetation management for soil conservation on moderate slopes to significantly reduce future landsliding.  相似文献   

11.
《自然地理学》2013,34(4):374-386
The Western Ghats mountain chain of Kerala, India, is prone to landslides mainly caused by anthropogenic disturbances and very high rainfall amounts. Here, some initial observations on the apparent relationship among pore water pressure fluctuations, rainfall characteristics, and landslide initiation are presented based on monitoring in an experimental catchment in the upper Tikovil River basin. On June 21 and 22, 2007, continuous rain fell for over 10 hours with a total precipitation of 147 mm, causing three shallow landslides in the catchment. Measurements using piezometers in three hollows of the catchment indicate that the rain spell resulted in the development of high pore water pressure from the beginning of the storm that persisted through the time of occurrence of shallow landslides. The pore water pressure patterns in these monitored hollows are possible representatives of the pore water pressure pattern in the hollows where the landslides initiated. This similarity of response pattern enables such data to be used for the calibration and validation of physically based slope hydrology models coupled with slope stability models.  相似文献   

12.
Chun-Hung Wu  Su-Chin Chen   《Geomorphology》2009,112(3-4):190-204
This work provides a landslide susceptibility assessment model for rainfall-induced landslides in Central Taiwan based on the analytical hierarchy process method. The model considers rainfall and six site factors, including slope, geology, vegetation, soil moisture, road development and historical landslides. The rainfall factor consists of 10-day antecedent rainfall and total rainfall during a rainfall event. Landslide susceptibility values are calculated for both before and after the beginning of a rainfall event. The 175 landslide cases with detailed field surveys are used to determine a landslide-susceptibility threshold value of 9.0. When a landslide susceptibility assessment value exceeds the threshold value, slope failure is likely to occur. Three zones with different landslide susceptibility levels (below, slightly above, and far above the threshold) are identified. The 9149 landslides caused by Typhoon Toraji in Central Taiwan are utilized to validate the study's result. Approximately, 0.2%, 0.4% and 15.3% of the typhoon-caused landslides are located in the three landslide susceptibility zones, respectively. Three villages with 6.6%, 0.4% and 4.9% of the landslides respectively are used to validate the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility map and analyze the main causes of landslides. The landslide susceptibility assessment model can be used to evaluate susceptibility relative to accumulated rainfall, and is useful as an early warning and landslide monitoring tool.  相似文献   

13.
《Geomorphology》2006,73(1-2):149-165
Manjiya County on the Ugandan slopes of Mount Elgon is a densely populated mountainous area where landslides have been reported since the beginning of the twentieth century. The numerous fatalities and the damage done during the extreme rainfall events of 1997 to 1999 drew attention to this phenomenon. In order to better understand the causal factors of these landslides, 98 recent landslides in the study area, mostly debris slumps, were mapped and investigated. Together, they displaced 11 millions m3 of slope material. Statistical analysis shows that landslides dominate on steep concave slope segments that are oriented to the dominant rainfall direction (northeast) and at a relatively large distance from the water divide. Based on landslide occurrence and impact, four different zones can be distinguished within the study area. Causal factors as well as landslide characteristics differ greatly between the four zones.Besides the fact that steep slopes, high rainfall and typical soil properties and stratification turn Manjiya into an inherently unstable area, human interference cannot be neglected. Whereas deforestation has reduced the stability of the shallow soils on the eastern slopes of the study area, the excavation of slopes, mainly for house building, is an important destabilizing factor for the western slopes. The growing population density not only increases the risk on damage, but hampers the search for solutions for the landslide problem as well.  相似文献   

14.
The paper describes a methodology to detect landslide triggering scenarios in geological homogeneous areas and for some specific landslide categories. In these scenarios, the rainfall–landslide relationship as well as the pluviometric load conditions influencing slope instability have to be investigated.The methodology is applied to an area located in northern Calabria (Italy) and affected by widespread and different slope instability phenomena. Outcropped, fractured, and deeply weathered crystalline rock masses, determining geologic homogeneous conditions, are present. In the same area, suitable and homogeneous climatic features have also been found.According to the methodology adopted, the hydrologic analysis of rainfall time-series is initially carried out notwithstanding historical data concerning landslide mobilization, but using simple models to determine critical pluviometric scenarios for the three landslide categories: shallow, medium-deep, and deep. Landslide-triggering scenarios individualized according to this procedure are less significant as compared to the landslide mobilization detected in the study area by means of historical research and ascribed to the three landslide categories according to geomorphologic analysis.Subsequently, the possible landslide triggering scenarios are outlined by carefully investigating the hydrologic analysis limited to the periods identified according to the historical data.In the study area and approximately for all the areas characterized by the outcrop of fractured and deeply weathered crystalline rocks, significant triggering scenarios can be outlined. In particular, shallow landslide triggers could be activated by rainfall events with intensities exceeding 90 mm/day and/or with amounts exceeding 160 mm. As for medium-deep and deep landslides, triggering mechanisms are more complicated; and effective rainfall contribution must be taken into account compared to groundwater storage. Moreover, a more complex link between deep landslides and precipitation is confirmed.The results obtained to date highlight the potential of this methodology, which enables us to define and progressively improve the knowledge framework by means of a work sequence integrating different disciplinary tools and results.  相似文献   

15.
Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
Landsliding of the hillslope regolith is an important source of sediment to the fluvial network in the unglaciated portions of the Himalayas of Nepal. These landslides can produce abrupt increases of up to three orders of magnitude in the fluvial sediment load in less than a day. An analysis of 3 years of daily sediment load and daily rainfall data defines a relationship between monsoonal rainfall and the triggering of landslides in the Annapurna region of Nepal. Two distinct rainfall thresholds, a seasonal accumulation and a daily total, must be overcome before landslides are initiated. To explore the geomorphological controls on these thresholds, we develop a slope stability model, driven by daily rainfall data, which accounts for changes in regolith moisture. The pattern of rainfall thresholds predicted by the model is similar to the field data, including the decrease in the daily rainfall threshold as the seasonal rainfall accumulation increases. Results from the model suggest that, for a given hillslope, regolith thickness determines the seasonal rainfall necessary for failure, whereas slope angle controls the daily rainfall required for failure.  相似文献   

16.
There are both internal and external controlling factors leading to slope instability and susceptibility to mass movement processes. This paper explores which external climatic variables of different temporal scales influence the occurrence of high-magnitude landslide events. The investigations were focused on the Wellenkalk-cuesta scarp in the Thuringia Basin (Thüringer Becken) in central Germany. The cuesta scarp is composed of a densely jointed limestone caprock (Wellenkalk), and impermeable mudstones and marls of the Upper Bunter Sandstone (Röt) in the lower part of the slope. Mass movements are a typical feature of the Wellenkalk-scarp. The entire scarp slope length (1000 km) has been systematically mapped and investigated in a comprehensive research project in order to provide reliable information on the spatial distribution and control of the mass movements. More than 20% of the scarp slope has been influenced by various types of Holocene mass movements with strong differences in spatial frequencies. Sixteen high-magnitude landslides (Sturzfließungen) were identified by field inspection and mapping of slope geomorphology. Information on locations, morphometric characteristics, stratigraphic positions and rainfall-related attributes of the scarp slopes affected by the large landslides is presented.Mean annual rainfall amounts decrease from more than 800 mm in the western part of the basin to less than 550 mm in the east. Meteorological statistics on the spatial distribution of heavy rainfall intensities of different durations and return periods show that greatest precipitation intensities in short events (1 h) are reached at the western margin. Differences in rainfall intensities between the western and eastern parts decrease with increasing duration of the events. Where available, event-related meteorological information was collected. The spatial distribution of the landslides is most closely mirrored in the pattern of mean annual precipitation, though this variable is generally not thought to be a satisfactory or reliable climatic controlling factor. No landslides occur below a threshold value of 700 mm. The empirical data show that some general level of average perennial water input into the slope system seems to be of decisive importance for the occurrence of high-magnitude mass movements. Only when the precondition of a more general hydrological disposition is fulfilled, a direct triggering of high-magnitude mass movements by a short-time intensive rainfall period or event can become effective.  相似文献   

17.
A numerical study was undertaken to investigate non linearity and the potential for self-organized criticality (SOC) in the evolution of river basins. Twenty-three simulations were carried out, using the authors' CAESAR landscape evolution model, in which the magnitude of storm events, variability of storm events, sediment heterogeneity, sources of sediment supply, and catchment morphology are systematically varied to evaluate their importance as possible drivers for non linear behavior and SOC.Temporal fluctuations in simulated sediment yield show notable non linear behavior. Storm magnitude and occurrence of landslides appear to have little impact on variability of the sediment yield, when compared to the impacts of sediment heterogeneity, rainfall variability and catchment morphology. Particularly, it appears that the non linearity of sediment yields results from the manner in which the catchment processes the variable rainfall, rather than just the rainfall variability itself.The variations in sediment yield show a power law magnitude–frequency distribution, which is a possible, but inconclusive, indicator of SOC. However, several other, more qualitative arguments can be made to support the case for SOC in these simulations. Specifically, we identify the nature of the critical state and suggest two cascade mechanisms by which the system can organize itself around this critical state. Combined, these arguments indicate that simulated evolution of river basins indeed exhibits SOC, at least with respect to sediment yield. The critical state appears to be an indicator of the connectivity of the drainage network. Thus, the simulations indicate that, unlike traditional SOC systems, the critical state of the system can vary in time, as sudden changes in drainage network connectivity may result in sudden changes in the SOC behavior of the system.  相似文献   

18.
Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  
Measuring some 2400 km in length, the Himalaya accommodate millions of people in northern India and Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and parts of other Asian nations. Every year, especially during monsoon rains, landslides and related natural events in these mountains cause tremendous damage to lives, property, infrastructure, and environment. In the context of the Himalaya, however, the rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation are not well understood. This paper describes regional aspects of rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Himalaya. Some 677 landslides occurring from 1951 to 2006 were studied to analyze rainfall thresholds. Out of the 677 landslides, however, only 193 associated with rainfall data were analyzed to yield a threshold relationship between rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and landslide initiation. The threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering rainfall events is I = 73.90D− 0.79 (I = rainfall intensity in mm h− 1 and D = duration in hours), revealing that when the daily precipitation exceeds 144 mm, the risk of landslides on Himalayan mountain slopes is high. Normalized rainfall intensity–duration relationships and landslide initiation thresholds were established from the data after normalizing rainfall-intensity data with respect to mean annual precipitation (MAP) as an index in which NI = 1.10D− 0.59 (NI = normalized intensity in h− 1). Finally, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was also investigated by considering daily rainfall during failure and the cumulative rainfall to discover at what point antecedent rainfall plays an important role in Himalayan landslide processes. Rainfall thresholds presented in this paper are generalized so they can be used in landslide warning systems in the Nepal Himalaya.  相似文献   

19.
三峡库区山地灾害基本特征及滑坡与降水关系   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
马占山  张强  朱蓉  江志红 《山地学报》2005,23(3):319-326
分析三峡库区山地灾害的基本特征，着重讨论库区滑坡灾害与前期降水量的相关关系，运用Fisher判别法则建立该区滑坡发生的降水预报方程。结果表明，三峡库区山地灾害主要出现在雨季，7月发生最为频繁，灾害种类多样，主要以滑坡为主，降水是诱发山地灾害的主要因素；当日和前5d的暴雨日数、当日和前10d降水量与滑坡发生的关系最为密切，诱发库区滑坡灾害的主要降水类型为暴雨诱发型和多日中大雨诱发型；通过Fisher判别方法，以两个降水因子建立起的滑坡发生的预报方程，对于三峡库区滑坡发生具有一定的判别能力，为库区山地灾害的预防提供科学依据。  相似文献   

20.
Fabio Luino   《Geomorphology》2005,66(1-4):13
Northern Italy is a geomorphologically heterogeneous region: high mountains, wide valleys, gentle hills and a large plain form a very varied landscape and influence the temperate climate of the area. The Alps region has harsh winters and moderately warm summers with abundant rainfall. The Po Plain has harsh winters with long periods of subfreezing temperatures and warm sultry summers, with rainfall more common in winter.Geomorphic instability processes are very common. Almost every year, landslides, mud flows and debris flows in the Alpine areas and flooding in the Po flood plain cause severe damage to structures and infrastructure and often claim human lives. Analyses of major events that have struck northern Italy over the last 35 years have provided numerous useful data for the recognition of various rainfall-triggering processes and their sequence of development in relation to the intensity and duration of rainfall. Findings acquired during and after these events emphasise that the quantity and typology of instability processes triggered by rainfall are related not only to an area's morphological and geological characteristics but also to intense rainfall distribution during meteorological disturbances. Moreover, critical rainfall thresholds can vary from place to place in relation to the climatic and geomorphological conditions of the area. Once the threshold has been exceeded, which is about 10% of the local mean annual rainfall (MAR), the instability processes on the slopes and along the hydrographic networks follow a sequence that can be reconstructed in three different phases.In the first phase, the initial instability processes that can usually be observed are soil slips on steep slopes, mud–debris flows in small basins of less than 20 km2 in area, while discharge increases substantially in larger stream basins of up to 500 km2. In continuous precipitation, in the second phase, first mud–debris flows can be triggered also in basins larger than 20 km2 in area. Tributaries swell the main stream, which is already in a critical condition. The violent flow causes severe problems mainly along valley bottoms of rivers with basins up to 2000 km2 in area. First bedrock landslides can occur, reaching a considerable area density, with volumes from a few hundred up to about one to two million cubic meters. In continuous precipitation, in the third phase, basins of more than 2000 km2 in area reach their first critical stage. River-bed morphology is extensively modified, with erosional and depositional processes which can locally undermine the stability of structures and infrastructures. Waters overflow levees, flooding villages and towns to various widths and depths and sometimes claiming casualties. Some days after an intense rainfall period, large landslides involving the bedrock can still take place. These processes usually cause the movement of very large rock masses. The total duration of rainfall usually has a greater effect on these landslides than does the number of short periods of very intensive precipitation. This sequence cannot be divided into separate phases when the events occur simultaneously because of the presence of intense rainfall pulses and the generation of very diffuse surface runoff. Such situations usually happen during short-lasting heavy summer rainstorms or in late spring, when snow melt combines with intense rainfall. The three-phase sequence has been identified in three severe events that are analysed in this paper: Valtellina (Lombardy) in 1987, Tanaro Valley (Piedmont) in 1994 and Aosta Valley in 2000; but this sequence has also been observed during other events that occurred in northern Italy: in Piedmont in 1968, 1977, 1978, 1993 and 2000; in Lombardy in 1983 and 1992; in the Aosta Valley in 1993.  相似文献   

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