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1.
There have been instances of premonitory variations in tilts, displacements, strains, telluric current, seismomagnetic effects, seismic velocities ( Vp, Vs) and their ratio (Vp/Vs), b-values, radon emission, etc. preceding large and moderate earthquakes, especially in areas near epicentres and along faults and other weak zones. Intensity and duration (T) of these premonitory quantities are very much dependent on magnitude (M) of the seismic event. Hence, these quantities may be utilised for prediction of an incoming seismic event well in advance of the actual earthquake. In the recent past, tilts, strain in deep underground rock and crustal displacements have been observed in the Koyna earthquake region over a decade covering pre- and postearthquake periods; and these observations confirm their reliability for qualitative as well as quantitative premonitory indices. Tilt began to change significantly one to two years before the Koyna earthquake of December 10, 1967, of magnitude 7.0. Sudden changes in ground tilt measured in a watertube tiltmeter accompanied an earthquake of magnitude 5.2 on October 17, 1973 and in other smaller earthquakes in the Koyna region, though premonitory changes in tilt preceding smaller earthquakes were not so much in evidence. However, changes in strains in deep underground rock were observed in smaller earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and above. Furthermore, as a very large number of earthquakes (M = 1–7.0) were recorded in the extensive seismic net in the Koyna earthquake region during 1963–1975, precise b-value variations as computed from the above data, could reveal indirectly the state of crustal (tectonic) strain variations in the earthquake focal region and consequently act as a powerful premonitory index, especially for the significant Koyna earthquakes of December 10, 1967 (M = 7.0) and October 17, 1973 (M = 5.2). The widespread geodetic and magnetic levelling observations covering the pre- and postearthquake periods indicate significant vertical and horizontal crustal displacements, possibly accompanied by large-scale migration of underground magma during the large seismic event of December 10, 1967 in the Koyna region (M = 7.0). Duration (T) of premonitory changes in tilt, strains, etc., is generally governed by the equation of the type logT = A + BM (A and B are statistically determined coefficients). Similar other instances of premonitory evidences are also observed in micro-earthquakes (M = − 1 to 2) due to activation of a fault caused by nearby reservoir water-level fluctuations.  相似文献   

2.
Theoretical and applied implications of the study of active faults and their identification and parametrization are discussed. The term active fault is defined as a fault with displacements that occurred in the late Pleistocene and Holocene and are expected to resume in the future. The displaced young landforms, late Quaternary sediments, and man-made constructions are the main reference marks to recognize active faults and estimate their kinematics and intensity. Since the structural pattern and parameters of all active faults are referred to the same, geologically short time interval, they are important for the study of recent geodynamics and young tectogenesis on the global, regional, and local scales. The opportunities that are opened for such investigations are illustrated by verification of the real existence of the Okhotsk and Bering minor plates. With allowance for active faults, it is possible to make tectonic and geodynamic reconstructions of the past events more plausible. Natural hazards, primarily, earthquakes, are related to active faults. The geological and geomorphic assessment of the seismic potential of active fault zones is discussed with emphasis on the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes (M max) estimated from the segmentation of the active zones, the length of particular segments (L), the empirical relationships M max/L for strong recent earthquakes, as well as the resumption periods of strong earthquakes and measurement of particular seismogenic offsets by trenching and other techniques, including archeoseismological methods. A question is posed about possible perennial variations in the stress-and-strain state of active zones, which are expressed on the scale of large seismoactive regions in oscillations of released seismic energy and should be taken into account by assessment of the seismic hazard.  相似文献   

3.
A data set of three-component short-period digital seismograms recorded in Friuli after the strong earthquake of 6th May 1976, allowed the local magnitude ML and the seismic moment M0 to be estimated in the range 0 < ML < 2. The data set including the same parameters for the higher-magnitude Friuli events (ML 5) shows two different slopes for the relation Log M0 = CML + d for the two different ranges of ML. One finds C ~ 1.0 (for 0 < ML < 2) and C ~1.5 (for5 ML 6.2), respectively.This implies that apparent stress release increases at low magnitudes, while it appears to be comparatively independent of the magnitude and to have an average value of about 100 bar for higher-magnitude earthquakes. Conversely, the fault dimensions do not appear to be magnitude-dependent for ML < 2; for higher-magnitude events the linear fault dimensions range from about 1 km at ML ~ 5 to about 12 km for the strong earthquake of 6th May 1976 (ML = 6.2).  相似文献   

4.
The 19 November 1923 earthquake in the Aran Valley (Central Pyrenees), with observed maximum intensityI max = VIII (MSK), has been studied through the compiling and reviewing of macroseismic information and collecting and processing early seismograms. Analysis of macroseismic data gives a focal depth ofh = 5 km and an anelastic attenuation coefficient 10–3 km–1. Analysis of early instrumental records allows the computation of estimate of magnitude (M L = 5.6) and seismic moment (M o = 1.1 × 1017 N × m) which are consistent with the values ofI o andh obtained from macroseismic data.  相似文献   

5.
Following a large-sized Bhuj earthquake (M s = 7.6) of January 26th, 2001, a small aperture 4-station temporary local network was deployed, in the epicentral area, for a period of about three weeks and resulted in the recording of more than 1800 aftershocks (-0.07 ≤M L <5.0). Preliminary locations of epicenters of 297 aftershocks (2.0 ≤M L <5.0) have brought out a dense cluster of aftershock activity, the center of which falls 20 km NW of Bhachau. Epicentral locations of after-shocks encompass a surface area of about 50 × 40 km2 that seems to indicate the surface projection of the rupture area associated with the earthquake. The distribution of aftershock activity above magnitude 3, shows that aftershocks are nonuniformly distributed and are aligned in the north, northwest and northeast directions. The epicenter of the mainshock falls on the southern edge of the delineated zone of aftershock activity and the maximum clustering of activity occurs in close proximity of the mainshock. Well-constrained focal depths of 122 aftershocks show that 89% of the aftershocks occurred at depths ranging between 6 and 25 km and only 7% and 4% aftershocks occur at depths less than 5 and more than 25 km respectively. The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) relationship, logN = 4.52 - 0.89ML, is fitted to the aftershock data (1.0<-M L<5.0) and theb-value of 0.89 has been estimated for the aftershock activity.  相似文献   

6.
Tokutaro Hatori 《GeoJournal》1996,38(3):313-319
The regional characteristics of tsunami magnitudes in the SE Asia region are discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1960 to 1994. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale are investigated by the author's method (Hatori 1979, 1986) using the data of inundation heights near the source area and tide-gauge records observed in Japan. The magnitude values of the Taiwan tsunamis showed relatively to be small. On the contrary, the magnitudes of tsunamis in the vicinities of the Philippines and Indonesia exceed more than 1–2 grade (tsunami heights: 2–5 times) compared to earthquakes with similar size on the circum-Pacific zone. The relation between tsunami magnitude, m, and earthquake magnitude, M s, is expressed as m = 2.66 M s– 17.5 for these regions. For example, the magnitudes for the 1976 Mindanao tsunami (M s= 7.8, 3702 deaths) and the 1992 Flores tsunami (M s= 7.5, 1713 deaths) were determined to be m = 3 and m = 2.5, respectively. The focal depth of tsunamigenic earthquakes is shallower thand< 36 km, and the detectively of tsunamis is small for deep earthquakes being d > 40 km. For future tsunamis, it is indispensable to take precautions against shallow earthquakes having the magnitudes M s> 6.5.  相似文献   

7.
Results from a recent earthquake in the Eastern Pyrenees are presented and the seismotectonics of the region is analyzed from the presently available data. On 26 September 1984 an earthquake (ML = 4.4) took place in the area of the historical destructive earthquake of 1428. Several portable stations installed in the epicentral area to record aftershocks permitted of defining a precise location at 42°19.2′N, 2°10.2′E and 5 km depth. A maximum felt intensity of V (MSK) is obtained from macroseismic data. The epicentral location lies within a block bounded by E-W-trending structures and the focal solution shows right-lateral shearing with a NW-SE pressure axis.The seismicity in the Eastern Pyrenees shows a complex pattern which can be associated with both E-W fractures and NE-SW fault systems. Focal solutions of another two recent earthquakes of ML ~ 4, with differences in horizontal pressure axis, are also discussed.  相似文献   

8.
In the present study, the cumulative seismic energy released by earthquakes (M w ≥ 5) for a period of 1897 to 2009 is analyzed for northeast (NE) India. For this purpose, a homogenized earthquake catalogue in moment magnitude (M w ) has been prepared. Based on the geology, tectonics and seismicity, the study region is divided into three source zones namely, 1: Arakan-Yoma Zone (AYZ), 2: Himalayan Zone (HZ) and 3: Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ). The maximum magnitude (M max ) for each source zone is estimated using Tsuboi’s energy blocked model. As per the energy blocked model, the supply of energy for potential earthquakes in an area is remarkably uniform with respect to time and the difference between the supply energy and cumulative energy released for a span of time, is a good indicator of energy blocked and can be utilized for the estimation of maximum magnitude (M max ) earthquakes. The proposed process provides a more consistent model of gradual accumulation of strain and non-uniform release through large earthquakes can be applied in the assessment of seismic hazard. Energy blocked for source zone 1, zone 2 and zone 3 regions is 1.35×1017 Joules, 4.25×1017 Joules and 7.25×1017 Joules respectively and will act as a supply for potential earthquakes in due course of time. The estimated M max for each source zone AYZ, HZ, and SPZ are 8.2, 8.6, and 8.7 respectively. M max obtained from this model is well comparable with the results of previous workers from NE region.  相似文献   

9.
Öncel  A. O.  Alptekin  Ö. 《Natural Hazards》1999,19(1):1-11
In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (m, b and Mmax) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (Mmax, the seismic activity rate (m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively.  相似文献   

10.
Magnitude conversion problem for the Turkish earthquake data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Earthquake catalogues which form the main input in seismic hazard analysis generally report earthquake magnitudes in different scales. Magnitudes reported in different scales have to be converted to a common scale while compiling a seismic data base to be utilized in seismic hazard analysis. This study aims at developing empirical relationships to convert earthquake magnitudes reported in different scales, namely, surface wave magnitude, M S, local magnitude, M L, body wave magnitude, m b and duration magnitude, M d, to the moment magnitude (M w). For this purpose, an earthquake data catalogue is compiled from domestic and international data bases for the earthquakes occurred in Turkey. The earthquake reporting differences of various data sources are assessed. Conversion relationships are established between the same earthquake magnitude scale of different data sources and different earthquake magnitude scales. Appropriate statistical methods are employed iteratively, considering the random errors both in the independent and dependent variables. The results are found to be sensitive to the choice of the analysis methods.  相似文献   

11.
G Purcaru 《Tectonophysics》1982,84(1):57-128
  相似文献   

12.
The Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF) is a slow active fault with moderate seismicity (I max~8–9, M max~5.7) passing through the most vulnerable regions of Austria and Slovakia. We use different data to constrain the seismic potential of the VBTF including slip values computed from the seismic energy release during the 20th century, geological data on fault segmentation and a depth-extrapolated 3-D model of a generalized fault surface, which is used to define potential rupture zones. The seismic slip of the VBTF as a whole is in the range of 0.22–0.31 mm/year for a seismogenic fault thickness of 8 km. Seismic slip rates for individual segments vary from 0.00 to 0.77 mm/year. Comparing these data to geologically and GPS-derived slip velocities (>1 mm/year) proofs that the fault yields a significant seismic slip deficit. Segments of the fault with high seismic slip contrast from segments with no slip representing locked segments. Fault surfaces of segments within the seismogenic zone (4–14 km depth) vary from 55 to 400 km2. Empirical scaling relations show that these segments are sufficiently large to explain both, earthquakes observed in the last centuries, and the 4th century Carnuntum earthquake, for which archeo-seismological data suggest a magnitude of M ≥ 6. Based on the combination of all data (incomplete earthquake catalog, seismic slip deficits, locked segments, potential rupture areas, indications of strong pre-catalog earthquakes) we argue, that the maximum credible earthquake for the VBTF is in the range M max = 6.0–6.8, significantly larger than the magnitude of the strongest recorded events (M = 5.7).  相似文献   

13.
On February 13, 1981 a relatively strong earthquake occurred in the Lake Vänern region in south-central Sweden. The shock had a magnitude ofML = 3.3 and was followed within three weeks by three aftershocks, with magnitudes 0.5 ≤ ML ≤ 1.0. The focal mechanism solution of the main shock indicates reverse faulting with a strike in the N-S or NE-SW direction and a nearly horizontal compressional stress. The aftershocks were too small to yield data for a full mechanism solution, but first motions of P-waves, recorded at two stations, are consistent for the aftershocks. Dynamic source parameters, derived from Pg- and Sg-wave spectra, show similar stress drops for the main shock (2 bar) and the aftershocks (1 bar), while the differences in seismic moment (1.5·1020 resp. 4·1018dyne cm), fault length (0.7 resp. 0.2 km) and relative displacement (0.15 resp. 0.03 cm) are significant.  相似文献   

14.
This report summarizes the seismicity in Switzerland and surrounding regions in the years 2015 and 2016. In 2015, the Swiss Seismological Service detected and located 735 earthquakes in the region under consideration. With a total of 20 earthquakes of magnitude ML ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity of potentially felt events in 2015 was close to the average of 23 earthquakes over the previous 40 years. Seismic activity was above average in 2016 with 872 located earthquakes of which 31 events had ML ≥ 2.5. The strongest event in the analyzed period was the ML 4.1 Salgesch earthquake, which occurred northeast of Sierre (VS) in October 2016. The event was felt in large parts of Switzerland and had a maximum intensity of V. Derived focal mechanisms and relative hypocenter relocations of aftershocks image a SSE dipping reverse fault, which likely also hosted an ML 3.9 earthquake in 2003. Another remarkable earthquake sequence in the Valais occurred close to Sion with four felt events (ML 2.7–3.2) in 2015/16. We associate this sequence with a system of WNW-ESE striking fault segments north of the Rhône valley. Similarities with a sequence in 2011, which was located about 10 km to the NE, suggest the existence of an en-echelon system of basement faults accommodating dextral slip along the Rhône-Simplon line in this area. Another exceptional earthquake sequence occurred close to Singen (Germany) in November 2016. Relocated hypocenters and focal mechanisms image a SW dipping transtensional fault segment, which is likely associated with a branch of the Hegau-Bodensee Graben. On the western boundary of this graben, micro-earthquakes close to Schlattingen (TG) in 2015/16 are possibly related to a NE dipping branch of the Neuhausen Fault. Other cases of earthquakes felt by the public during 2015/16 include earthquakes in the region of Biel, Vallorcine, Solothurn, and Savognin.  相似文献   

15.
We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆmax, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an MS-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆmax,RP6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.  相似文献   

16.
In this study, we analyze the recent (1990–1997) seismicity that affected the northern sector (Sannio–Benevento area) of the Southern Apennines chain. We applied the Best Estimate Method (BEM), which collapses hypocentral clouds, to the events of low energy (Md max=4.1) seismic sequences in order to constrain the location and geometry of the seismogenetic structures. The results indicate that earthquakes aligned along three main structures: two sub-parallel structures striking NW–SE (1990–1992, Benevento sequence) and one structure striking NE–SW (1997, Sannio sequence). The southernmost NW–SE structure, which dips towards NE, overlies the fault that is likely to be responsible for a larger historical earthquake (Io max=XI MCS, 1688 earthquake). The northernmost NW–SE striking structure dips towards SW. The NE–SW striking structure is sub-vertical and it is located at the northern tip of the fault segment supposed to be responsible for the 1688 earthquake. The spatio-temporal evolution of the 1990–1997 seismicity indicates a progressive migration from SE (Benevento) to NW (Sannio) associated to a deepening of hypocenters (i.e., from about 5 to 12 km). Hypocenters cluster at the interface between the major structural discontinuities (e.g., pre-existing thrust surfaces) or within higher rigidity layers (e.g., the Apulia carbonates). Available focal mechanisms from earthquakes occurred on the recognized NW–SE and NE–SW faults are consistent with dip-slip normal solutions. This evidences the occurrence of coexisting NW–SE and NE–SW extensions in Southern Apennines.  相似文献   

17.
The earthquake hazard parameters and earthquake occurrence probabilities are computed for the different regions of the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) using Bayesian method. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for a time period between 1900 and 2015. Only two historical earthquakes (1766, M S = 7. 3 and 1897, M S = 7. 0) are included in Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the near future since no large earthquake has been observed for the instrumental period. In order to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters for next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years, M max (maximum regional magnitude), β value, λ (seismic activity or density) are computed for the different regions of NAFZ. The computed M max values are changed between 7.11 and 7.89. While the highest magnitude value is calculated in the Region 9 related to Tokat-Erzincan, the lowest value in the Region 10 including the eastern of Erzincan. The “quantiles” of “apparent” and “true” magnitudes of future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % of the 10 different seismic source regions. The region between Tokat and Erzincan has earthquake hazard level according to the determined parameters. In this region the expected maximum earthquake size is 7.8 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years. While the regional M max value of Marmara Region is computed as 7.61, expected maximum earthquake size is 7.37 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years.  相似文献   

18.
The 1511 Western Slovenia earthquake (M = 6.9) is the largest event occurred so far in the region of the Alps–Dinarides junction. Though it strongly influences the regional seismic hazard assessment, the epicenter and mechanism are still under debate. The complexity of the active tectonics of the Alps–Dinarides junction is reflected by the presence of both compressional and transpressional deformations. This complexity is witnessed by the recent occurrence of three main earthquake sequences, the 1976 Friuli thrust faulting events, the 1998 Bovec–Krn Mountain and the 2004 Kobarid strike-slip events. The epicenters of the 1998 and 2004 strike-slip earthquakes (Ms = 5.7 and Ms = 4.9, respectively) lie only 50 km far from the 1976 thrust earthquake (Ms = 6.5).We use the available macroseismic data and recent active tectonics studies, to assess a possible epicenter and mechanism for the 1511 earthquake and causative fault. According with previous works reported in the literature, we analyze both a two-and a single-event case, defining several input fault models. We compute synthetic seismograms up to 1 Hz in an extended-source approximation, testing different rupture propagations and applying a uniform seismic moment distribution on the fault segments. We extract the maximum horizontal velocities from the synthetics and we convert them into intensities by means of an empirical relation. A rounded-to-integer misfit between observed and computed intensities is performed, considering both a minimized and a maximized databases, built to avoid the use of half-degree macroseismic intensity data points. Our results are consistent with a 6.9 magnitude single event rupturing 50 km of the Idrija right-lateral strike-slip fault with bilateral rupture propagation.  相似文献   

19.
This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories: one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M w ) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01° and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones, as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources.  相似文献   

20.
Maximum magnitude of earthquakes Mmax expected in any distinct area is considered a consequence of both the tectonic features and the properties of the medium. An experimental problem was solved for the Caucasus where relationships were established between Mmax and a complex of geological conditions for the “standard” areas well known both geologically and seismologically. The solution is a formula connecting Mmax values with contributions of ten tectonic parameters expressed in terms of non-linear, monotonously increasing functions of amounts or rates of corresponding geological properties and processes.A map of calculated values of Mmax based on the solution was compiled for the Caucasus as a result of spreading the relationships established from the standard areas over the entire region. Prognostic values of Mmax were calculated and a similar map was also constructed for the Carpathian region.The detailed pattern of these maps and good coincidence of the calculated values of Mmax with registered magnitudes of earthquakes in the Carpathian region make it possible to regard the method presented in the paper as a possibility for constructing a geological basis of seismic zoning.  相似文献   

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