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1.
针对传统的单一模型和非线性GM(1,1)-AR组合模型无法实现对非平稳、含噪时间序列信号进行优化处理的问题,该文提出了一种新的基于小波的GM(1,1)-AR模型预测算法。采用小波变换原理对监测数据进行消噪处理和不同频带的分离,有效地获取了实际变形量;利用GM(1,1)模型和AR时序分析模型对具有确定性的趋势项和不确定性的随机项进行建模组合,较好地综合了灰色模型拟合功能强大和时间序列善于处理细节信息两者优势。通过工程实例对比分析结果表明:基于小波的GM(1,1)-AR模型不仅有效剔除了多余噪声,还利用各种模型有机嵌套组合实现优势互补,新算法预测结果比各单一模型、非线性GM(1,1)-AR模型结果更为精确。  相似文献   

2.
非等间距GM(1,1)模型在不等时间间隔序列的趋势分析和预测方面具有重要作用,在此基础上,提出一种基于非等间距加权GM(1,1)模型和自回归AR(p)模型相结合的非等间距加权灰色自回归模型(非等间距WGM-AR模型).将基坑周边建筑物沉降监测数据视为具有确定趋势的非等时间序列,对序列进行平滑处理,利用非等间距加权GM(1,1)模型提取该时序中的确定性趋势项,用自回归AR(p)模型分析生成的等间距序列中的随机项,并采用内插法得到沉降监测序列的随机项.将组合模型与非等间距GM(1,1)模型计算结果对比分析,结果表明,组合模型具有更高的预测精度,在基坑周边建筑物沉降预测中具有较高的应用价值.  相似文献   

3.
何伟  李明  阚起源 《测绘工程》2014,(4):62-64,68
针对沉降观测中不等间隔和观测值可能含有粗差的情况,提出抗差加权非等时距GM(1,1)模型,实验表明,当观测值中不含粗差时,抗差加权非等时距GM(1,1)模型和常规GM(1,1)模型一样具有良好的预测效果;当观测值中含有粗差时,具备良好抵抗粗差的能力,具有非常好的预测效果。  相似文献   

4.
基于初始条件、背景值等是灰色建模精度和适应性的重要影响因素,本文针对非等间距GM(1,1)模型中的背景值进行了优化改正,提出一种带有适应因子λ的背景值构造方法。根据灰色模型的一次累加生成序列的近指数特征计算了模型发展系数a与适应因子λ。结合实例,与非等时距GM(1,1)的初始条件优化模型对比分析,结果表明经过优化背景值的非等时距GM(1,1)模型有效地提高模拟预测精度,同时也适用于等间距模型,具有较强的适用性。  相似文献   

5.
介绍了动态非等时距GM(1,1)模型的建模原理、建模过程以及精度评定方法,阐明了动态非等时距GM(1,1)模型中维度选择、残差改正的问题,结合高层建筑沉降监测实例进行分析,将动态非等时距残差GM(1,1)模型预测结果与实测值进行比较,得出动态非等时距残差GM(1,1)模型在建筑物沉降监测中具有很高预测精度的结论,证明了该方法的可行性与可靠性,适用于高层建筑沉降监测.  相似文献   

6.
近年来,相关的研究与实践表明,变形监测的数据处理方法比较成熟,如回归模型、卡尔曼滤波模型、灰色模型、时间序列模型以及人工神经网络模型等各种模型,均经过了各种检验,而且有效地应用在变形监测技术中。然而单一的模型预测有其自身的局限性,因此,预测模型需要采用组合优化模型弥补单一模型的缺陷。本文主要阐述了加权灰色线性回归组合模型在高铁隧道沉降预测中的应用,通过与传统的GM(1,1)模型以及灰色线性回归组合模型进行对比。实验结果表明,加权灰色线性回归组合模型具有较高的预测精度。  相似文献   

7.
针对GM(1,1)建模过程中背景值、时间因素两方面存在的不足,文中提出双重加权DPGM(1,1)预测模型,通过对背景值进行加权生成新的背景值,建立PGM(1,1)模型;在PGM(1,1)基础上考虑到时间因素在求解灰参数时进行第二次加权建立DPGM(1,1)模型。通过实例分析,比较GM(1,1)、PGM(1,1)、DPGM(1,1)三种模型在变形监测数据处理中的拟合和预测结果。表明,双重加权DPGM(1,1)模型拟合效果更好、预测精度更高。该模型具有前两种模型的优点,同时弥补了传统GM(1,1)的不足。  相似文献   

8.
分别以Lagrange插值法和三次样条曲线法为基础,利用灰色理论建立高速公路沉降预测的非等时距GM(1,m)模型。分析比较MGM(1,m)与GM(1,1)模型精度,基于非等时距的MGM(1,3)模型沉降预测结果与实测情况吻合较好,拟合与预测精度也比非等时距GM(1,1)的精度高,非等时距的序列转换采用Lagrange插值函数法和三次样条曲线法求得,对于此次工程数据采用三次样条曲线法较Lagrange插值函数法精度高。  相似文献   

9.
在传统的GM(1,1)模型和AR模型的基础上提出一种基于Kalman滤波的GM-AR模型预测新算法。利用卡尔曼滤波对原始监测数据进行滤波消噪,获取有效地实际变形量;然后对实际变形量中的趋势项和随机项运用GM(1,1)-AR组合模型进行建模组合。通过工程实例分析表明,基于卡尔曼滤波的GM(1,1)-AR模型相比单一的GM(1,1)模型和GM(1,1)-AR模型,有效地减弱观测噪声的影响,提高预测精度。  相似文献   

10.
针对传统灰色模型建模过程中易受观测数据随机噪声干扰的影响,利用抗差卡尔曼滤波理论能够有效地估计含有噪声的观测值的优点,构建了基于抗差卡尔曼滤波的GM(1,1)模型。结合实例,验证了该模型在一定程度上可以提高变形监测预测精度,更好地反映观测对象的变形趋势。  相似文献   

11.
 采用Landsat TM数据分析了阿克苏河—塔里木河断面水质污染状况,通过波段的DN值和常规监测数据建立能反映水质状况的 污染物监测模型。结果发现,将2000年常规监测数据代入模型后,与遥感数据的结果基本吻合| 重建阿克苏河—塔里木河的连续水体 污染变化曲线,得出污染物浓度随着远离上游而增加。  相似文献   

12.
The hard-rock hilly Aravalli terrain of Rajasthan province of India suffers with frequent drought due to poor and delayed monsoon, abnormally high summer-temperature and insufficient water resources. In the present study, detailed analysis of meteorological and hydrological data of the Aravalli region has been carried out for the years 1984–2003. Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used to quantify the precipitation deficit. Standardised Water-Level Index (SWI) has been developed to assess ground-water recharge-deficit. Vegetative drought indices like Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) have been computed using NDVI values obtained from Global Vegetation Index (GVI) and thermal channel data of NOAA AVHRR satellite. Detailed analyses of spatial and temporal drought dynamics during monsoon and non-monsoon seasons have been carried out through drought index maps generated in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. Analysis and interpretation of these maps reveal that negative SPI anomalies not always correspond to drought. In the Aravalli region, aquifer-stress shifts its position time to time, and in certain pockets it is more frequent. In comparison to hydrological stress, vegetative stress in the Aravalli region is found to be slower to begin but quicker to withdraw.  相似文献   

13.
The area around Sataun in the Sirmur district of Himachal Pradesh, India (falling between the rivers Giri and Tons; both tributaries of the Yamuna River) was studied for landslide vulnerability on behalf of the inhabitants. The study was made using extensive remote sensing data (satellite and airborne). It is well supported by field evidence, demographic and infrastructural details and aided by Geographic Information System (GIS) based techniques. Field observations testify that slope, aspect, geology, tectonic planes, drainage, and land use all influence landslides in the region. These parameters were taken into consideration using the statistical approach of landslide hazard zonation. Using the census data of 1991, vulnerability of the populace to the landslide hazard was accessed. As most of the infrastructure in the region is concentrated around population centres, population data alone was used for vulnerability studies.  相似文献   

14.
Although it is well known that coseismic gravity changes take place during an earthquake, previous research has not yielded convincing evidence demonstrating that significant gravity changes occur before large earthquakes. Furthermore, even if we suspect that gravity changes occur before large earthquakes, we have yet to demonstrate how to consistently observe these changes for useful earthquake forecast that would bring benefits to society. We analyzed ground gravity survey data obtained in 1998, 2000, 200...  相似文献   

15.
GNSS系统及其技术的发展研究   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2  
阐述了国际上卫星导航系统的总体发展,对美、俄、欧、中的四大全球系统,以及相关的区域系统和增强系统进行了简单的介绍,研究分析了GNSS系统及其技术的发展趋势,同时分析了我国Compass全球系统面临的机遇和挑战,并提出了我国未来工作的建议.  相似文献   

16.
“4D”技术及其应用   总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13  
介绍“4D”(即数字地面模型、数字正射影像、数字栅格地图和数字线划地图)系列产品的生产流程、关键技术、及其在耕地保护、防灾减灾救灾和城市规划等方面的应用方法。  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

Virtual Australia is not a well-defined or agreed concept. This discussion paper conceptualises Virtual Australia as a ‘virtual [digital] model containing and representing all non-trivial objects and their contextual environment – from blue sky to bedrock – in real world Australia’. It describes a scenario for Virtual Australia, one or two decades from now, in which the locations and conditions of non-trivial objects and their environment are updated automatically through a combination of remote sensing and wireless communication technologies in support of a ‘Supranet’. It then examines the concept of the ‘Supranet’ – a pervasive information network based largely on wireless technology linking the physical world to a virtual model in real time – and develops and discusses three principal characteristics of the Supranet: the ability to have or collect specific information (know); the ability to process information (think); and the ability to communicate that information. If, in the near future, any or all non-trivial devices are to some extent able to know, think and communicate, the potential for object autonomy will be realised.  相似文献   

18.
Location-Based Services (LBS),an emerging new business based on smartphone and mobile networks,are becoming more and more popular.Most of these LBSs,however,only offer non-seamless indoor/outdoor applications and simple applications without giving stakeholders the chance to play an active role.Our specific aim is to solve these issues.This paper presents concepts to solve these issues by expanding the Open Location Services Interface Standard (OpenLS) to allow seamless indoor/outdoor positioning and to extend the content of the services to include information recommended by stakeholders.  相似文献   

19.
GIS空间数据的采集误差及其分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
本文详细阐述了GIS数据采集过程中的误差来源,重点分析了通过地图、遥感和摄影测量等方式采集数据所产生的误差及其特性,分析了其对GIS数据的影响与消减方法。  相似文献   

20.
地理数据库的关系模型及其实现   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
本文从以图论观点分析地理实体入手,系统阐述了地理数据库关系模型的设计法和过程。作者于1984年4~9月间在微型机上设计建立了关系型地理数据库的实方验系统(RGDB)。该系统采用了本文提出的关系模型,采用了可动态扩库的子库组合结构,这种结构具有灵活性和提高空间利用率的优点。RGDB含有多种功能的数据操作命令,除了具有一般检索功能外,还能进行“开窗”选取和十分“自由”的映象选取。本文对RGDB系统的主要性能和实现途径作了扼要介绍。  相似文献   

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