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1.
依据美国NGA两个版本的数据库,修正、补充了文献[3]的震源全局参数基础数据,形成分别包含189个地震的数据1和204个地震的数据2,分别在三种破裂类型、五(三)个震级段,统计得出矩震级与破裂面的面积、宽度、长度以及破裂面上平均错动量四个震源全局参数之间的经验关系和半经验关系。与文献[3]的结果比较表明,数据量增加后系数值的差异不明显,最大相对差分别为12.4%和8.4%,且统计结果离散减小,稳定性增加。采用本文结果建立震源模型,对一个7.0级走滑地震合成的近场4个地表点的高频地震动,得到的平均反应谱幅值、峰值总体上略大于用文献[3]参数合成的,平均值的相对差在4.6%~23.0%间,随距离增加差别有所减小。 相似文献
2.
A shift approach is presented for evaluating and interpreting the response of rigid‐perfectly plastic single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems to dynamic loading. Scaling laws for such systems are, as the term suggests, multiplicative in nature, relating peak dynamic response to products of key problem parameters such as linear spectral coordinates, force reduction coefficient and peak values of the excitation and its time derivatives. Contrary to classical laws, the proposed approach is additive, imposing a shift in the ordinates and the abscissa of the excitation function by means of a set of parameters uniquely related to the yielding resistance of the system. The dynamic response is then obtained by integrating the modified excitation function in a linear‐like manner within a particular yielding branch, for the nonlinearity is incorporated into the forcing term. The mathematical validity of the approach is demonstrated analytically and its importance is highlighted for systems with symmetric yielding resistance subjected to near‐fault earthquake motions. The modified excitation function may be discontinuous between different yielding branches and relates uniquely to the development of plastic deformation. It is thereby referred to as Plastic Input Motion (PIM). It is shown that the ordinates and the duration of this function may be significantly (yet not necessarily) smaller than those of the original ground motion depending on yield strength. The relationship of the proposed approach to the existing methods and parameters of earthquake engineering such as Newmark's sliding block and relative ground acceleration, is discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
M. C. Wu J. D. Cawlfield 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(2):103-121
A reliability approach is used to develop a probabilistic model of two-dimensional non-reactive and reactive contaminant transport in porous media. The reliability approach provides two important quantitative results: an estimate of the probability that contaminant concentration is exceeded at some location and time, and measures of the sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome to likely changes in the uncertain variables. The method requires that each uncertain variable be assigned at least a mean and variance; in this work we also incorporate and investigate the influence of marginal probability distributions. Uncertain variables includex andy components of average groundwater flow velocity,x andy components of dispersivity, diffusion coefficient, distribution coefficient, porosity and bulk density. The objective is to examine the relative importance of each uncertain variable, the marginal distribution assigned to each variable, and possible correlation between the variables. Results utilizing a two-dimensional analytical solution indicate that the probabilistic outcome is generally very sensitive to likely changes in the uncertain flow velocity. Uncertainty associated with dispersivity and diffusion coefficient is often not a significant issue with respect to the probabilistic analysis; therefore, dispersivity and diffusion coefficient can often be treated for practical analysis as deterministic constants. The probabilistic outcome is sensitive to the uncertainty of the reaction terms for early times in the flow event. At later times, when source contaminants are released at constant rate throughout the study period, the probabilistic outcome may not be sensitive to changes in the reaction terms. These results, although limited at present by assumptions and conceptual restrictions inherent to the closed-form analytical solution, provide insight into the critical issues to consider in a probabilistic analysis of contaminant transport. Such information concerning the most important uncertain parameters can be used to guide field and laboratory investigations. 相似文献
4.
A reliability approach is used to develop a probabilistic model of two-dimensional non-reactive and reactive contaminant transport in porous media. The reliability approach provides two important quantitative results: an estimate of the probability that contaminant concentration is exceeded at some location and time, and measures of the sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome to likely changes in the uncertain variables. The method requires that each uncertain variable be assigned at least a mean and variance; in this work we also incorporate and investigate the influence of marginal probability distributions. Uncertain variables includex andy components of average groundwater flow velocity,x andy components of dispersivity, diffusion coefficient, distribution coefficient, porosity and bulk density. The objective is to examine the relative importance of each uncertain variable, the marginal distribution assigned to each variable, and possible correlation between the variables. Results utilizing a two-dimensional analytical solution indicate that the probabilistic outcome is generally very sensitive to likely changes in the uncertain flow velocity. Uncertainty associated with dispersivity and diffusion coefficient is often not a significant issue with respect to the probabilistic analysis; therefore, dispersivity and diffusion coefficient can often be treated for practical analysis as deterministic constants. The probabilistic outcome is sensitive to the uncertainty of the reaction terms for early times in the flow event. At later times, when source contaminants are released at constant rate throughout the study period, the probabilistic outcome may not be sensitive to changes in the reaction terms. These results, although limited at present by assumptions and conceptual restrictions inherent to the closed-form analytical solution, provide insight into the critical issues to consider in a probabilistic analysis of contaminant transport. Such information concerning the most important uncertain parameters can be used to guide field and laboratory investigations. 相似文献
5.
The stability of the power law scaling of earthquake recurrence time distribution in a given space–time window is investigated,
taking into account the magnitude of completeness and the effective starting time of aftershock sequences in earthquake catalogs
from Southern California and Japan. A new method is introduced for sampling at different distances from a network of target
events. This method allows the recurrence times to be sampled many times on the same area. Two power laws with unknown exponents
are assumed to govern short- and long-recurrence-time ranges. This assumption is developed analytically and shown to imply
simple correlation between these power laws. In practice, the results show that this correlation structure is not satisfied
for short magnitude cutoffs (m
c
= 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), and hence the recurrence time distribution departs from the power law scaling. The scaling parameters obtained
from the stack of the distributions corresponding to different magnitude thresholds are quite different for different regions
of study. It is also found that significantly different scaling parameters adjust the distribution for different magnitude
thresholds. In particular, the power law exponents decrease when the magnitude cutoff increases, resulting in a slower decrease
of the recurrence time distribution, especially for short time ranges. For example, in the case of Japan, the exponent p2 of the power law scaling at large recurrence times follows roughly the relation: , where m
c
is the magnitude cutoff. In case of Southern California, it is shown that Weibull distribution provides a better alternative
fit to the data for moderate and large time scales. 相似文献
6.
When a small, transparent replica of a seismic section is illuminated by a homogeneous beam of coherent, monochromatic parallel light a diffraction pattern is created that is representation of the double Fourier spectrum of the recorded seismic waves, i.e. their spectrum in terms of frequency, f, and apparent wave number, k. Masking selected parts of this diffraction pattern causes the spectrum to be filtered: the recomposition of the filtered spectrum then provides a filtered section. The ideal seismic section for this purpose would be a continuous variable density section obtained from recording made at every point of the seismic line. The light transmission coefficient (in terms of light amplitude) at each spot of the replica should be linearly related to the instantaneous seismic signal strength at the spot on the seismic section to which it refers. Unfortunately we cannot make recordings at every point of a seismic line and in our practically realisable recordings we have to be content with sampling in the direction of the location coordinate x. This means that with variable density recordings aliasing will be present and evident in the spectrum obtained in the direction of k; furthermore, the aliased spectrum is also multiplied by a sine function of k because the recording obtained at a given station is not presented on the seismic section as a single line along the time axis, but occupies the entire width of the trace. The diffraction patterns created by variable density recordings of dipping sine waves, including clipped recordings, and of the effect of dip filtering in such sections are discussed. The efficiency of dip rejection is shown to decrease with increasing dip. The diffraction pattern of a variable density recording is found to be characterised by a relationship between point pairs in the pattern. No such simple relationship has been found for the diffraction pattern of a variable area section; the spectra of such VAR sections belong to a very special class, because the amplitude transmission coefficient has only two values, viz. 0 and 1. Consequently, selective masking of the diffraction pattern of a VAR section may give rise to a filtered profile that does not look like a VAR section at all. General statements about the diffraction pattern of VAR sections are hard to give, because the transmission coefficient at a given point in the replica is not proportional to the signal level in the seismic section at the relevant point. In the case of VAR presentation of harmonic waves it was found that, as well as the aliasing effect in the k direction, higher harmonics of the frequency are also introduced. Some synthetic examples are given that show dip filtering to be less effective with VAR than with variable density recordings. Some arguments are advanced in favour of the opinion that high-pass filtering of VAR sections will have less success than low-pass filtering. This is demonstrated by two synthetic examples. 相似文献
7.
Stream‐flow recessions are commonly characterized by the exponential equation or in the alternative power form equation of a single linear reservoir. The most common measure of recession is the recession constant K, which relates to the power function form of the recession equation for a linear reservoir. However, in reality it can be seen that the groundwater dynamics of even the simplest of aquifers may behave in a non‐linear fashion. In this study three different storage–outflow algorithms; single linear, non‐linear and multiple linear reservoir were considered to model the stream‐flow recession of the upper Blue Nile. The recession parameters for the linear and non‐linear models were derived by the use of least‐squares regression procedures. Whereas, for the multiple linear reservoir model, a second‐order autoregressive AR (2) model was applied first in order to determine the parameters by the least‐squares method. The modelling of the upper Blue Nile recession flow performed shortly after the wet season, when interflow and bank storage may be contributing considerably to the river flow, showed that the non‐linear reservoir model simulates well with the observed counterparts. The variation related to preceding flow on a recession parameter of the non‐linear reservoir remains significant, which was obtained by stratification of the recession curves. Although a similar stratification did not show any systematic variation on the recession parameters for the linear and multiple linear reservoir models. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Measurements of suspended particulate matter concentration and turbidity point towards the possibility of a site‐specific algorithm (SPM), relating SPM to nephelometric turbidity units (NTU). In this paper regression models are presented that account for changes in the relationship of SPM and NTU as a result of changes in particle properties. The models have been developed by the use of daily measurements of SPM concentration and a continuous record of turbidity for the period from June 1996 to February 2001 in the River Elbe, a major river in the eastern part of Germany. The effect of changes in the particle properties with increasing water discharge was taken into account by varying the slope of a linear regression equation according to a logistic function. Water discharge, Q, was defined to be the only variable of this function—as an adequate substitute of the parameter bottom shear stress, which cannot be measured directly. Measurements of flow velocity in the River Elbe show that bottom shear stress is related almost linearly to water discharge up to bankful discharges. Regression models with slopes varying continuously with hydraulic parameters may account for the effects resulting from changes of particle characteristics and thus may have some advantages compared with models with a constant slope or models calibrated for different seasons. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Consideration of the dynamic effects of the site and structural parameter uncertainty is required by the standards for nuclear power plants (NPPs) in most countries. The anti-seismic standards provide two basic methods to analyze parameter uncertainty. Directly manually dealing with the calculated floor response spectra (FRS) values of deterministic approaches is the first method. The second method is to perform probability statistical analysis of the FRS results on the basis of the Monte Carlo method. The two methods can only reflect the overall effects of the uncertain parameters, and the results cannot be screened for a certain parameter’s influence and contribution. In this study, based on the dynamic analyses of the floor response spectra of NPPs, a comprehensive index of the assessed impact for various uncertain parameters is presented and recommended, including the correlation coefficient, the regression slope coefficient and Tornado swing. To compensate for the lack of guidance in the NPP seismic standards, the proposed method can effectively be used to evaluate the contributions of various parameters from the aspects of sensitivity, acuity and statistical swing correlations. Finally, examples are provided to verify the set of indicators from systematic and intuitive perspectives, such as the uncertainty of the impact of the structure parameters and the contribution to the FRS of NPPs. The index is sensitive to different types of parameters, which provides a new technique for evaluating the anti-seismic parameters required for NPPs. 相似文献
10.
C. Lacombe J.-L. Steinberg C. C. Harvey D. Hubert A. Mangeney M. Moncuquet 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,15(4):387-396
Radio waves undergo angular scattering when they propagate through a plasma with fluctuating density. We show how the angular scattering coefficient can be calculated as a function of the frequency spectrum of the local density fluctuations. In the Earths magnetosheath, the ISEE 1–2 propagation experiment measured the spectral power of the density fluctuations for periods in the range 300 to 1 s, which produce most of the scattering. The resultant local angular scattering coefficient can then be calculated for the first time with realistic density fluctuation spectra, which are neither Gaussian nor power laws. We present results on the variation of the local angular scattering coefficient during two crossings of the dayside magnetosheath, from the quasi-perpendicular bow shock to the magnetopause. For a radio wave at twice the local electron plasma frequency, the scattering coefficient in the major part of the magnetosheath is b(2fp) 0.5–4 × 10–9 rad2/m. The scattering coefficient is about ten times stronger in a thin sheet (0.1 to IRE) just downstream of the shock ramp, and close to the magnetopause. 相似文献
11.
K. Petzoldt 《Annales Geophysicae》1999,17(2):231-241
Total ozone anomalies (deviation from the long-term mean) are created by anomalous circulation patterns. The dynamically produced ozone anomalies can be estimated from known circulation parameters in the layer between the tropopause and the middle stratosphere by means of statistics. Satellite observations of ozone anomalies can be compared with those expected from dynamics. Residual negative anomalies may be due to chemical ozone destruction. The statistics are derived from a 14 year data set of TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer January 1979-Dec. 1992) and corresponding 300 hPa geopotential (for the tropopause height) together with 30 hPa temperature (for stratospheric waves) at 60°N. The correlation coefficient for the linear multiple regression between total ozone (dependent variable) and the dynamical parameters (independent variables) is 0.88 for the zonal deviations in the winter of the Northern Hemisphere. Zonal means are also significantly dependent on circulation parameters, besides showing the known negative trend function of total ozone observed by TOMS. The significant linear trend for 60°N is 3 DU/year in the winter months taking into account the dependence on the dynamics between the tropopause region and the mid-stratosphere. The highest correlation coefficient for the monthly mean total ozone anomalies is reached in November with 0.94. 相似文献
12.
R.J. McCarroll G. Masselink M. Wiggins T. Scott O. Billson D.C. Conley N.G. Valiente 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(13):2720-2727
Gravel beaches are common throughout the high latitudes, but few studies have examined gravel transport rates, in particular at high energy levels, and no studies have quantified gravel transport around headlands. Here, we present the first complete sediment budget, including supra-, inter- and sub-tidal regions of the beach, across multiple headland-separated gravel embayments, combined with hydrodynamic observations, over an extreme storm sequence, representing at least a 1-in-50-year event. Unprecedented erosion was observed (~400 m3 m−1, −6 m vertical), with alongshore flux of 2 × 105 m3, equivalent to annual rates. Total system volume change was determined to the depth of closure and then used to calculate alongshore flux rates. Alongshore wave power was obtained from a wave transformation model. For an open section of coastline, we derive a transport coefficient (CERC formula) of KHs = 0.255 ± 0.05, exceeding estimates in lower-energy conditions by a factor of 5 or more. We apply this coefficient to rocky segments of the shoreline, determining rates of headland bypass from 0 to 31% of potential flux, controlled by headland extent and toe depth. Our results support the hypothesis that gravel is transported more efficiently at higher energy levels and that a variable rate or threshold approach may be required. Complete coverage and varying morphology make this dataset uniquely suited to improving model predictions of gravel shoreline change. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
In this article we present the modelling of uncertainty in strong-motion studies for engineering applications, particularly
for the assessment of earthquake hazard. We examine and quantify the sources of uncertainty in the basic variables involved
in ground motion estimation equations, including those associated with the seismological parameters, which we derive from
a considerable number of strong-motion records. Models derived from regression analysis result in ground motion equations
with uncertain parameters, which are directly related to the selected basic variables thus providing an uncertainty measure
for the derivative variable. These uncertainties are exemplified and quantified. An alternative approach is presented which
is based on theoretical modelling defining a functional relationship on a set of independent basic variables. Uncertainty
in the derivative variable is then readily obtained when the uncertainties of the basic variables have been defined. In order
to simplify the presentation, only the case of shallow strike-slip earthquakes is presented. We conclude that the uncertainty
is approximately the same as given by the residuals typical for regression modelling. This implies that uncertainty in ground
motion modelling cannot be reduced below certain limits, which is in accordance with findings reported in the literature.
Finally we discuss the implications of the presented methodology in hazard analyses, which is sensitive to the truncation
of the internal error term, commonly given as an integral part of ground motion estimation equations. The presented methodology
does not suffer from this shortcoming; it does not require truncation of the error term and yields realistic hazard estimates.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
14.
Soil erosion is a major contributor to land degradation in the Loess Plateau in China. To clarify the sediment transport capacity of overland flow influenced by hydraulic parameters, such as shear stress, sand shear stress (hydraulic gradient partition method and hydraulic radius partition method), mean flow velocity, Froude number, stream power, and unit stream power, indoor experiments with eight-unit-width flow discharges from 0.0667 × 10−3 to 0.3333 × 10−3 m2·s−1, six slope gradients from 3.49 to 20.79%, and two kinds of sand soils (d50 = 0.17 and 0.53 mm) were systematically investigated. A nondimensional method was adopted in data processing. Results showed that there was a partition phenomenon of relation curves because of the different median grain diameters. The correlation between the nondimensional stream power and nondimensional sediment transport capacity was the highest, followed by the correlation between the nondimensional unit stream power and nondimensional sediment transport capacity. However, there was a poor correlation between the flow intensity indices of velocity category and nondimensional sediment transport capacity. Nondimensional stream power, nondimensional unit stream power, and nondimensional shear stress could predict sediment transport capacity well. Ignoring the partition phenomenon of the relation curves, stream power could be used to predict sediment transport capacity, with a coefficient of determination of .85. Furthermore, a general flow intensity index was obtained to predict sediment transport capacity of overland flow. Finally, an empirical formula for predicting sediment transport capacity with a coefficient of determination of .90 was established by multiple regression analyses based on the general flow intensity index. During the analysis between measured sediment transport capacities in present study and predicted values based on Zhang model, Mahmoodabadi model, and Wu model, it was found that these three models could not accurately predict sediment transport capacities of this study because different models are estimated on the basis of different experimental conditions. 相似文献
15.
基于对回弹法检测混凝土强度被检测量,结合逆回归理论提出了一种逆回归三参数回弹法测强曲线模型(经验公式),将随机性较大的混凝土回弹值作为因变量,随机性较小的抗压强度值作为自变量,并且增加了一个位置参数,更加符合工程的实际情况。试验数据表明,本文提出的经验公式比传统的直线式和幂函数式经验公式的线性相关系数更高,且平均相对误差和相对标准差都低。适用于建筑结构混凝土强度健康诊治的检测中,还可以应用到诸如压力容器、汽轮发动机无损检测等其他领域中。 相似文献
16.
Maksim Bano 《Geophysical Prospecting》2004,52(1):11-26
The attenuation of ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) energy in the subsurface decreases and shifts the amplitude spectrum of the radar pulse to lower frequencies (absorption) with increasing traveltime and causes also a distortion of wavelet phase (dispersion). The attenuation is often expressed by the quality factor Q. For GPR studies, Q can be estimated from the ratio of the real part to the imaginary part of the dielectric permittivity. We consider a complex power function of frequency for the dielectric permittivity, and show that this dielectric response corresponds to a frequency‐independent‐Q or simply a constant‐Q model. The phase velocity (dispersion relationship) and the absorption coefficient of electromagnetic waves also obey a frequency power law. This approach is easy to use in the frequency domain and the wave propagation can be described by two parameters only, for example Q and the phase velocity at an arbitrary reference frequency. This simplicity makes it practical for any inversion technique. Furthermore, by using the Hilbert transform relating the velocity and the absorption coefficient (which obeys a frequency power law), we find the same dispersion relationship for the phase velocity. Both approaches are valid for a constant value of Q over a restricted frequency‐bandwidth, and are applicable in a material that is assumed to have no instantaneous dielectric response. Many GPR profiles acquired in a dry aeolian environment have shown a strong reflectivity inside dunes. Changes in water content are believed to be the origin of this reflectivity. We model the radar reflections from the bottom of a dry aeolian dune using the 1D wavelet modelling method. We discuss the choice of the reference wavelet in this modelling approach. A trial‐and‐error match of modelled and observed data was performed to estimate the optimum set of parameters characterizing the materials composing the site. Additionally, by combining the complex refractive index method (CRIM) and/or Topp equations for the bulk permittivity (dielectric constant) of moist sandy soils with a frequency power law for the dielectric response, we introduce them into the expression for the reflection coefficient. Using this method, we can estimate the water content and explain its effect on the reflection coefficient and on wavelet modelling. 相似文献
17.
Tomographic inversion problems are ill-posed and therefore solutions must be either damped or regularized to produce results that are geologically reasonable. We introduce a priori information in terms of parameter covariances to constrain the solution. We use slowness logs to determine the appropriate parameter covariances for the inversion of traveltime data collected for a cross-hole geometry. We find that the logs exhibit power spectra proportional to a power α of the frequency. The value of α controls the smoothness of the inversion solution. For α < 0, the solution smoothness is maximized. Thus, knowing the correct value of α, which can be found from well logs, we can specify the appropriate amount of smoothing, rather than using some arbitrary level. Inversions were carried out on synthetic data for the case of α= 0 and α=?1. The use of α= 0 implies uncorrelated model parameters and is equivalent to standard damped least-squares methods. We find that solutions for α= 0 show greater complexity than for α=?1 but this level of resolution can be illusory. An example from the Midale field, Saskatchewan, Canada, is inverted using both α= 0 and α=?2, given by the observed parameter covariances. The solution for α= 0 exhibits spurious detail which must be smoothed away. For α=?2, the solution smoothness is maximized and we recover only that structure which is required to fit the data. 相似文献
18.
地震往往受控于滑动面的摩擦性质,这种摩擦性质可以由速率状态摩擦定律较好地描述.速率状态摩擦定律中的本构参数a和b与动态摩擦系数相关,从而影响着同震位移与剪切应力的时空演化.本文在前人工作的基础上,采用三维边界积分方程法模拟速率状态摩擦定律控制下均匀全空间中平面断层的自发破裂传播过程,并详细讨论了a和b对滑动速率、剪切应力和破裂传播速度的影响.数值结果表明a和b的不同取值将导致不同的破裂行为,b－a的值越大,断层越不稳定,这种不稳定性有利于裂纹的产生与扩展.但滑动速率的时空分布不只依赖b－a,而且还与a和b的具体取值有关,断层面上滑动速率峰值与剪切破裂强度均随着a的减小而增大,随着b的增大而增大.相关结果有助于加深对断层自发破裂传播的认识. 相似文献
19.
Arabinda Biswas 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1969,76(1):100-106
Summary The propagation ofSH-waves in a vosco-elastic layer having variable material properties has been studied to explain the damping phenomenon of the wave motion. The damping coefficient may be calculated and the effect of heterogeneity on such type of wave motion may be observed from the obtained frequency equation. 相似文献
20.
Sung Eun Kim Ashok Kumar 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(4):241-248
Due to the nonlinear feature of a ozone process, regression based models such as the autoregressive models with an exogenous vector process (ARX) suffer from persistent diurnal behaviors in residuals that cause systematic over-predictions and under-predictions and fail to make accurate multi-step forecasts. In this article we present a simple class of the functional coefficient ARX (FARX) model which allows the regression coefficients to vary as a function of another variable. As a special case of the FARX model, we investigate the threshold ARX (TARX) model of Tong [Lecture notes in Statistics, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1983; Nonlinear time series: a dynamics system approach, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1990] which separates the ARX model in terms of a variable called the threshold variable. In this study we use time of day as the threshold variable. The TARX model can be used directly for ozone forecasts; however, investigation of the estimated coefficients over the threshold regimes suggests polynomial coefficient functions in the FARX model. This provides a parsimonious model without deteriorating the forecast performance and successfully captures the diurnal nonstationarity in ozone data. A general linear F-test is used to test varying coefficients and the portmanteau tests, based on the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation of fitted residuals, are used to test error autocorrelations. The proposed models were applied to a 2 year dataset of hourly ozone concentrations obtained in downtown Cincinnati, OH, USA. For the exogenous processes, outdoor temperature, wind speed, and wind direction were used. The results showed that both TARX and FARX models substantially improve one-day-ahead forecasts and remove the diurnal pattern in residuals for the cases considered. 相似文献