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根据信息预测理论分析,江苏一南黄海地区M≥6级强震具有显著的可公度性。在回顾总结1996年11月9日南黄海6.1级地震预测的基础上,对南黄海海域1846年以来6级强震可公度性的基本结构及其预测功能进行了深入研究,同时建立了可公度预测模型,对该区未来强震趋势进行预测探讨。结果表明,1999～2000年,该区有可能发生M≥5地震,2002年前后南黄海海域有可能再次发生M≥6级强震。 相似文献
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根据江苏－南黄海地区１５００￣１９９６年Ｍ≥６强震活动和时间分布特征，应用有序性分析，可公度性分析和强震丛集性等方法对该区６级强震趋势预测进行探讨。结果表明，未来几年本区依然存在６级强震的危险，下次Ｍ≥６强震有可能发生在２００２￣２００３年。 相似文献
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黄海地震活动分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
朱兆才 《地震地磁观测与研究》1991,12(2):22-27
本文分析了黄海地震活动情况,认为黄海地震区M≥6地震具有约70年活动周期和约5.7年的可公度性周期。本文建立了黄海M≥6地震的可公度性预测公式,预测实验表明公式稳定性强、精度高,可用于预测。本文还分析了黄海地震与东北深震的相关性,并对黄海潜在M≥6地震做出了预测。 相似文献
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根据１５００年以来的地震资料分析,江苏－南黄海地区Ｍ≥５中强震具有显著的干支６０周期性特征,南黄海海域Ｍ≥６强震具有良好的可公度性,并对其基本结构和预测功能进行了研究。未来几年该区依然存在５￣６级地震的危险性,第二活跃幕可能将持续到２００９年前后。 相似文献
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通过地震时间对称特征进行地震趋势判断的研究,对于地震防灾、减灾有重要意义。为验证地震时间对称性研究方法,揭示地震时间对称特征的机理,采用可公度计算、蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系方法研究川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征及趋势;然后利用小波分析所提取的川滇地区MS≥5.0地震能量释放周期和日月活动周期,对川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征进行解释。研究结果显示:(1)川滇地区MS≥7.0地震具有明显时间对称特征,2017年发震信号最强,其随机概率为65.5%。(2)川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征是地震能量释放周期更直观的表达。(3)川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征是月球赤纬角周期和太阳黑子周期组合叠加的结果,月球赤纬角极值是强震的主要触发因素。 相似文献
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根据江苏南黄海地区（３１°～３５°Ｎ,１１９°～１２３．５°Ｅ）１５００～１９９６年Ｍ≥６强震资料,应用有序性分析、可公度性分析等方法,对１９９６年南黄海６．１级地震后强震趋势进行了跟踪预测研究．结果表明,未来Ｍ≥６强震可能发生在２００２～２００３年 相似文献
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门可佩 《地震地磁观测与研究》1993,(2)
江苏-南黄海地区自16世纪以来已发生17次6级以上强震,经研究发现它们存在着时间间隔为74年、57年、26年、7年的有序性结构,利用这种强震活动的有序性和可公度性理论相结合,试对该区6级以上强震进行预测探索,结论是1995-1996年、2001-2002年前后该区有发生6级以上强震的可能。 相似文献
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根据翁文波信息预测理论,对江苏—南黄海地区自1839年以来Ms≥5中强地震链时空有序性进行了深入研究,构建了本区南黄海海域和全区Ms≥6强震的有序网络结构,并据此对未来6级强震进行了预测,同时分析讨论了本区地震活动的分期.结论表明：本区从1998年起进入新一轮平静幕,此幕可能持续到2042年前后,下次活跃幕的首次6级强震可能发生在2053年前后. 相似文献
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乌恰-帕米尔地区强震的灰色预测研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文应用灰色系统理论和可公度性理论,试对新疆乌恰—帕米尔地区的强震活动趋势进行预测研究,给出了一个检验性预测的反演实例,结果表明:该地区6级以上地震具有3.8年的可公度值,7级以上强震具有10.1年的可公度值;M_s≥6地震可能发生在1993年3月8日—1995年2月2日和1997年1月10日—1998年12月2日,下次M_s≥7强震大约在2003—2007年前后发生。 相似文献
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燕山地震活动具有可公度性,M≥6地震可公度周期约50年,M≥5地震可公度周期约3.78年。本文分析了燕山带M≥5地震可公度性活动特点及其与太阳黑子活动、郯庐北带M≥5地震活动的相关性,根据可公度性特点建立了燕山带地震的可公度性预测公式。对1976年唐山7.8级地震检验表明,公式具有较强稳定性和较高预测精度,可用于预测。文中提出了对燕山带潜在5—6级地震的预测,可供地震监测预报参考。 相似文献
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M. N. French R. L. Bras W. F. Krajewski 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(1):27-45
A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities. 相似文献
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Gtz Schroth Luciana Ferreira Da Silva Marc‐Andree Wolf Wenceslau Geraldes Teixeira Wolfgang Zech 《水文研究》1999,13(10):1423-1436
The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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M. A. Kahn 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2000,28(2):95-101
Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate. 相似文献
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