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1.
Thomas Birk 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2014,114(1):59-75
This article assesses the vulnerability to climatic and socioeconomic stresses in the Reef Islands, Solomon Islands, an atoll island group in the Southwest Pacific. Climate change and the associated sea-level rise are often seen as the most pressing challenges to atoll communities, yet this study aims at critically re-assessing this view by placing climate in the context of a range of other internal and external stressors affecting local livelihoods, including population growth, inadequate land use practices, and lack of economic potential, as well as external factors such as poorly developed infrastructure, economic marginalization and weak governance of Solomon Islands. Findings suggest that some of these non-climatic stresses are currently – and in the short term – more important determinants of local vulnerability than climate change and sea-level rise. Certainly, these stresses are likely to be exacerbated by different elements of climate change in the short, medium and long term, but generally speaking climate change does not appear to be a major driver of the current changes in the islands. On the basis of these observations, the possible adaptation options, relevant to different time scales, are discussed. 相似文献
2.
Anita Latai-Niusulu Tony Binns Etienne Nel 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2020,41(1):40-60
Being resilient in the face of climate change seems especially important for island societies, which face the effects of rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, changing wind patterns and sea level rise. To date, most studies of adaptation and resilience among Pacific island communities have used indicators and methods rooted in Western science and neo-classical economics. These have been criticized as being locally irrelevant and inadequate to appreciate the dynamic nature and social structures of island communities and their capacity to adapt. This paper challenges the paradigm that defines resilience as a return to equilibrium, by using a non-equilibrium, cultural ecological lens. The non-equilibrium view of resilience sees the social systems of island nations as highly dynamic and undergoing persistent adaptation in the face of changing environmental factors. Field-based research undertaken in eight villages in Samoa found that, through constant exposure to environmental change over extended periods of time, communities have become resilient and are in a position to adapt to future changes. In developing future policy in relation to climate change, Pacific island governments need to develop a more nuanced understanding of islanders’ perceptions and historical actions in the context of both their physical locations and their dynamic socio-cultural systems. 相似文献
3.
Although future climate change will significantly affect New Zealand's climate, how regional climates will be changed remains highly uncertain. As a consequence, pre‐screening sensitivity analysis is recommended for climate‐sensitive activities. A ‘bottom‐up’ approach intended to serve this purpose in the context of non‐irrigated pasture is developed and demonstrated in the Hawke's Bay context. This is achieved using a simple daily water balance model to simulate near‐surface hydrological processes and empirical relationships between transpiration and pasture dry matter production. The Hawke's Bay case study indicates that the methodology has merit and is worthwhile pursuing nationally (with refinements). 相似文献
4.
Sustainable Household Capability: which households are doing the work of environmental sustainability? 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Gordon Waitt Peter Caputi Chris Gibson Carol Farbotko Lesley Head Nick Gill 《The Australian geographer》2012,43(1):51-74
This paper presents a framework for analysing which households are doing ‘their bit’ for sustainability in an era of climate change, using a two-stage cluster analysis of sustainable household capabilities. The framework segments households by their reported level of commitment to ‘pro-sustainability’ practices common to conventional government policies. Results are presented from a large-scale survey of Wollongong households, New South Wales, Australia. Results illustrate the importance of approaching household sustainability through everyday practices. Attention is drawn to the wide variation in participation in specific household sustainability practices. Investigation into sustainable household capability by household segments shows the limits of even the most committed households. Results show the importance of socio-cultural contexts in differentiating sustainable household capabilities—with women, suburban-detached households and lower income segments of the population ultimately doing most of the work of being sustainable. 相似文献
5.
Eric F. Lambin Sarah Ann Lise D’haen Ole Mertz Jonas Østergaard Nielsen Kjeld Rasmussen 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2014,114(1):76-83
In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization. 相似文献
6.
青藏高原地区生态环境脆弱,其特殊的自然地理环境使其旅游活动对气候变化的反应更为敏感。本文基于545位入藏游客的问卷调查,实证分析青藏高原地区游客对气候变化因子的认知和体验状况,探究气候变化对青藏高原地区旅游活动的影响机理。得出以下主要结论：① 入藏前游客对天气和气候状况的关注度并不高,但是在旅行中这一因素却是旅游体验的最大影响因素;② 优美的高原自然风光是游客对西藏的核心认知之一,直接影响游客的决策与体验;③ 不同地理区域的游客对高原气候因子的关注度和自然环境要素的重视度并不存在显著差异,动机类型才是显著影响这二者的重要因素。研究进一步表明,青藏高原气候的暖湿化趋势对提升该地区的游客体验有积极作用,但气候变化带来的优势并不能够直接转化为潜在游客的出游活动。 相似文献
7.
A number of studies have indicated that the long term habitability of Kiribati, a low‐lying country in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, is tenuous given the impacts of climate change, particularly sea level rise. In an effort to plan for the resultant challenges ahead, a number of national policies and programs have surfaced to reduce the impact of localized changes on people's livelihoods. This study explores how local community members (n = 60) have taken it upon themselves to respond to the impacts of climate change by utilizing a number of different strategies. The results highlight that: first, respondents consider climate change to be the most concerning issue for sustaining their livelihoods; second, respondents have built physical defences, relocated temporarily or permanently, and sought government assistance to adapt to localized climate‐related impacts; and third, the majority of respondents indicated that they would migrate as a long term strategy to respond to the future impacts of climate change. 相似文献
8.
The Pacific island nation-state of Tuvalu featured significantly at the Copenhagen Conference of Parties (COP) 15 climate change negotiations, where the vulnerability of Tuvalu to sea level rise and emotional outpourings of the Tuvaluan delegation contributed to the nation's prominence. In this paper we discuss the likely impacts for Tuvalu of a 1.5°C versus 2°C global warming target and explore sadness and discomfort surrounding discussion of these targets during COP 15. We highlight tensions between science and emotion, arguing that affective encounters can be significant in climate change decision-making. Weeping by a member of the Tuvalu delegation evoked discomfort in the conference plenary. This discomfort briefly unsettled the apparently stable boundaries of convention and protocol that seek to separate emotion from science and politics. We argue that possibilities for change arise when emotions enter climate change negotiations, even though (or perhaps because) these are arenas that privilege rational exchange. Our conclusion urges that more attention be paid to how climate science and emotion are intertwined in climate change politics. 相似文献
9.
Patrick D. Nunn 《Geographical review》2007,97(1):1-23
ABSTRACT. Around a.d. 1300 the entire Pacific Basin (continental Pacific Rim and oceanic Pacific Islands) was affected by comparatively rapid cooling and sea‐level fall, and possibly increased storminess, that caused massive and enduring changes to Pacific environments and societies. For most Pacific societies, adapted to the warmer, drier, and more stable climates of the preceding Medieval Climate Anomaly (a.d. 750–1250), the effects of this A.D. 1300 Event were profoundly disruptive, largely because of the reduction in food resources available in coastal zones attributable to the 70–80‐centimeter sea‐level fall. This disruption was manifested by the outbreak of persistent conflict, shifts in settlements from coasts to refugia inland or on unoccupied offshore islands, changes in subsistence strategies, and an abrupt end to long‐distance cross‐ocean interaction during the ensuing Little Ice Age (a.d. 1350–1800). The A.D. 1300 Event provides a good example of the disruptive potential for human societies of abrupt, short‐lived climate changes. 相似文献
10.
国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于国内外农户气候变化感知和适应研究进展,在辨析气候变化和气候变异概念的基础上,阐释农户气候变化/变异感知结果及影响因素。研究发现农户气候变化感知与适应行为之间存在不确定关系,农户气候变化感知直接转化为适应策略需克服一系列障碍因素。针对农户气候变化适应策略,在系统梳理国内外农户适应策略的基础上,对这些策略是否属于气候变化和变异适应行为提出质疑,认为不能忽略其他复杂的社会经济和政治因素对这些措施的驱动作用。最后,对中国未来研究提出慎重大规模开展农户气候变化感知及适应研究、厘清气候变化/变异感知与适应策略之间关系和重视时空异质性以及农户异质性研究三点展望。 相似文献
11.
冰雪旅游是推动冰雪经济与旅游产业高质量融合发展的重要途径,现已成为文旅产业中最具潜力的领域之一。然而在全球气候变化的影响下,冰雪旅游发展面临严峻挑战。文章以北京市为例,运用结构方程模型对冰雪旅游情境中城市居民的气候变化感知、感知价值、旅游意向和环境责任行为等变量间的影响关系及其形成机制进行分析。研究发现：(1)气候变化感知分为气候变化表征和气候变化风险两个维度,且两者显著正向影响冰雪旅游感知价值。同时,气候变化风险显著正向影响旅游者环境责任行为。(2)冰雪旅游感知价值显著正向影响冰雪旅游意向和环境责任行为。(3)冰雪旅游意向显著正向影响环境责任行为。(4)旅游经历在气候变化感知对冰雪旅游意向和环境责任行为的影响关系中具有显著的正向调节作用。本研究对厘清冰雪旅游情境下气候变化感知对游客环境责任行为的复杂影响机理具有重要的理论价值,同时也能够在一定程度上为相关部门把握“后冬奥”黄金机遇,推动冰雪旅游高质量发展提供决策参考。 相似文献
12.
Päivi Lujala Haakon Lein 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2020,74(3):138-151
ABSTRACT It is commonly assumed that personal experiences of a changing climate will influence people’s attitudes to the extent that they will be more likely to acknowledge anthropogenic climate change as a real threat and therefore be more willing to accept both mitigation and adaptation efforts. In the article, the authors examine how survey participants’ personal experiences of extreme events and climate-related changes in the natural environment influenced their perceptions of climate change. Using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Norway in 2015 and the results of logistic regressions, the authors find that individual observations of changes in nature were linked to higher levels of concern with regard to climate change, as well as to attitudes that were more positive towards personal mitigation and adaption efforts. Somewhat counter-intuitively, they also find that participants who had personally experienced a natural hazard event were less concerned about climate change compared with participants without such experiences. The authors conclude that personal experience of the consequences of climate change may in some cases have a limited effect on enhancing people’s concerns about climate change. 相似文献
13.
Kiribati: an environmental ‘perfect storm’ 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Recent environmental discourses and headlines on small island developing states (SIDS) have heralded the grave and impending threats of global warming and associated sea-level rise. These are undoubtedly significant challenges for SIDS, including atoll nations such as Kiribati. Nevertheless, securing small island state futures also requires a renewed commitment to addressing the obvious and immediate threats of urbanisation, pollution and sanitation. Looking at pressures of development on freshwater, this article argues that the future survival of small island states and their societies also greatly depends on managing the impacts of development. Approaches which can concurrently strengthen the resilience of communities and their ecosystems will result in mutual benefits for both sustainable development and climate change adaptation. 相似文献
14.
THE 'LITTLE ICE AGE': RE-EVALUATION OF AN EVOLVING CONCEPT 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
JOHN A. MATTHEWS KEITH R. BRIFFA 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2005,87(1):17-36
ABSTRACT. This review focuses on the development of the ‘Little Ice Age’ as a glaciological and climatic concept, and evaluates its current usefulness in the light of new data on the glacier and climatic variations of the last millennium and of the Holocene. ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization occurred over about 650 years and can be defined most precisely in the European Alps (c. AD 1300–1950) when extended glaciers were larger than before or since. ‘Little Ice Age’ climate is defined as a shorter time interval of about 330 years (c. AD 1570–1900) when Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures (land areas north of 20°N) fell significantly below the AD 1961–1990 mean. This climatic definition overlaps the times when the Alpine glaciers attained their latest two highstands (AD 1650 and 1850). It is emphasized, however, that ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization was highly dependent on winter precipitation and that ‘Little Ice Age’ climate was not simply a matter of summer temperatures. Both the glacier‐centred and the climate‐centred concepts necessarily encompass considerable spatial and temporal variability, which are investigated using maps of mean summer temperature variations over the Northern Hemisphere at 30‐year intervals from AD 1571 to 1900. ‘Little Ice Age’‐type events occurred earlier in the Holocene as exemplified by at least seven glacier expansion episodes that have been identified in southern Norway. Such events provide a broader context and renewed relevance for the ‘Little Ice Age’, which may be viewed as a ‘modern analogue’ for the earlier events; and the likelihood that similar events will occur in the future has implications for climatic change in the twenty‐first century. It is concluded that the concept of a ‘Little Ice Age’ will remain useful only by (1) continuing to incorporate the temporal and spatial complexities of glacier and climatic variations as they become better known, and (2) by reflecting improved understanding of the Earth‐atmosphere‐ocean system and its forcing factors through the interaction of palaeoclimatic reconstruction with climate modelling. 相似文献
15.
16.
CHIE SAKAKIBARA 《Geographical review》2008,98(4):456-475
ABSTRACT. Contemporary storytelling among the IÑupiat of Point Hope, Alaska, is a means of coping with the unpredictable future that climate change poses. Arctic climate change impacts IÑupiat lifeways on a cultural level by threatening their homeland, their sense of place, and their respect for the bowhead whale that is the basis of their cultural identity. What I found during my fieldwork was that traditional storytelling processed environmental changes as a way of maintaining a connection to a disappearing place. In this article I describe how environmental change is culturally manifest through tales of the supernatural, particularly spirit beings or ghosts. The types of IÑupiat stories and modes of telling them reveal people's uncertainty about the future. Examining how people perceive the loss of their homeland, I argue that IÑupiat storytelling both reveals and is a response to a changing physical and spiritual landscape. 相似文献
17.
利用宁夏全域5个地市1980—2018年逐日白昼气温、相对湿度、风速、日照时数等气象资料，运用温湿指数、风寒指数、着衣指数和综合舒适指数模型，计算出旅游气候适宜期天数，并对其变化趋势及变化原因进行分析。综合舒适指数模型结果表明：石嘴山、银川、吴忠、中卫4市的旅游气候适宜期较为一致，为3月10日～11月7日，持续时长为243 d。固原的旅游气候适宜期为3月27日～10月29日，持续时长为217 d；石嘴山、吴忠、中卫全年旅游适宜天数变化不显著，是由始期、终期适宜天数增加幅度与“凹”面期适宜天数的减少幅度相当所致。银川、固原全年旅游适宜天数显著增加，主要是始期、终期适宜天数增加幅度大于“凹”面期适宜天数的减少幅度所致；各地始期、终期适宜天数显著增加是由气温升高、相对湿度降低和其他要素的差异变化共同作用所致。“凹”面期适宜天数显著减少是由气温升高(高温日数增多)、相对湿度降低和其他要素的差异变化共同作用所致；各地始期、终期、“凹”面期，气温的显著变化对适宜天数显著变化的影响权重最大，达到50%以上，相对湿度、风速、日照时数的影响权重各有差异。 相似文献
18.
Low-lying atoll islands appear highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and extreme natural events. Potentially disastrous effects of future sea-level rise have been inferred in many studies, and the actual impacts of tropical storms on island destruction and formation have been well documented. In contrast, the role of tsunami in the geomorphic development of atoll islands has not been investigated. The Sumatran earthquake of 26 December 2004 generated a tsunami that reached the Maldives 2500 km away, with waves up to 2.5 m high. Observations on the geomorphic changes resulting from the tsunami are detailed here, based on pre-and post-tsunami profile measurements of island, beach and reef topography, and GPS surveys of the planform shape of islands and beaches of 11 uninhabited islands in South Maalhosmadulu atoll, Maldives. Erosional and depositional impacts were observed on all islands and these have been quantified. In general the changes were of a minor nature with a maximum reduction in island area of 9% and average of 3.75%. Rather, the tsunami accentuated predictable seasonal oscillations in shoreline change, including localised erosion reflected in fresh scarps and seepage gullies. Depositional features in the form of sand sheets and sand lobes emplaced on the vegetated island surfaces provide clear evidence that the tsunami waves washed over parts of all the islands. Both erosional scarps and overwash deposits were concentrated at the tsunami-exposed eastern sides of the islands. Impacts on leeward shores were primarily accretionary, in the form of spit and cuspate foreland extension. Whereas the nature and magnitude of intra-and inter-island impacts was variable, an east to west decline in aggregate effects was noted. Detailed consideration of the morphodynamic interaction between the tsunami waves and island morphology, show that this cross-atoll gradient resulted not just from the reduction in tsunami energy as it passed through the atoll, but also from variations in elevation of the encircling island ridge, and the quantity and distribution of sediment in the antecedent beach. A conceptual model identifying the sequence of changes to individual islands supports the observational data and the pattern of geomorphic changes resulting from the tsunami. This model leads to consideration of the longer-term impacts of the tsunami on the future stability of islands. Four scenarios are presented, each of which has a different island-beach sediment budget, and different relaxation time to achieve dynamic equilibrium. 相似文献
19.
西太平洋副热带高压的年代际变化 及其气候影响 总被引：45，自引：0，他引：45
西北太平洋副热带高压是影响我国夏季气候的一个非常重要的环流系统，本文主要分析了其年代际尺度的变化。发现在１９７９／１９８０年前后，其强度和范围发生了一次明显的年代际尺度的变化。１９８０年代以来，副高明显偏强，范围向西向南显著扩展。副高的年代际变化也对我国东部地区的气候产生了显著的影响。主要表现在近２０多年来长江中下游地区夏季降水显著增加，华南地区夏季气温显著偏高，以及西太平洋２０°Ｎ以南台风活动相对偏弱而２０°Ｎ以北洋面台风活动相对增强。副高的年代际变化与冬、春季赤道太平洋海表温度及同期热带印度洋海温有密切联系。 相似文献
20.
Mountain glaciers have an obvious location advantage and tourist market condition over polar and high latitude glaciers. Due to the enormous economic benefit and heritage value, some mountain glaciers will always receive higher attention from commercial media, government departments and mountain tourists in China and abroad. At present, more than 100 glaciers have been developed successfully as famous tourist destinations all over the world. However, global climate change seriously affects mountain glaciers and its surrounding environment. According to the current accelerated retreat trend, natural and cultural landscapes of some glaciers will be weakened, even disappear in the future. Climate change will also inevitably affect mountain ecosystems, and tourism routes under ice and glacier experience activities in these ecosystems. Simultaneously, the disappearance of mountain glaciers will also lead to a clear reduction of tourism and local economic benefits. Based on these reasons, this paper took Mt. Yulong Snow scenic area as an example and analyzed the retreat trend of a typical glacier. We then put forward some scientific and rational response mechanisms and adaptation models based on climate change in order to help future sustainable development of mountain glacier tourism. 相似文献