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1.
This article presents probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of northern Pakistan region carried out to produce macro-seismic hazard maps for the region that define new regional ground motion design parameters for 95-, 475-, 975- and 2475-year return period earthquakes as regional contour maps and horizontal uniform hazard at important cities. The Cornell–McGuire approach (Cornell in Bull Seismol Soc Am 58(05):1583–1606, 1968; McGuire in FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis. US Geological Survey, Open file Report, 76-6768, 1976) is used to carry out the analyses at 0.1° rectangular grid. The seismotectonic model of the region used in analysis consists of shallow and deep area zones differentiated based on the focal depths of the earthquakes. Earthquake catalogue compiled and used in the analysis is a composite catalogue composed of 19,373 events. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used are calibrated using goodness-of-fitness measures and visual inspection with local strong motion data. Epistemic uncertainty in the GMPEs is taken into account through the logic tree approach. Comparison of ground motions due to deep earthquakes is made for the first time for the region. The comparison between ground motion due to shallow and deep earthquakes indicates that the seismic hazard would be underestimated if the deep earthquakes are excluded. Ground motion values obtained in this study considering all the earthquakes suggest ground motions are dominant towards the north east of the region. The proposed study indicates that the ground motion hazard values suggested by the current Building Code of Pakistan underestimate the seismic hazard. Final results of this study are in close agreement with the recent studies on the region. 相似文献
2.
Keyan Yu Philippe Rosset 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(2):164-178
In Canada, Montreal is the second city with the highest seismic risk. This is due to its relatively high seismic hazard, old infrastructures and high population density. The region is characterised by moderate seismic activity with no recent record of a major earthquake. The lack of historical strong ground motion records for the region contributes to large uncertainties in the estimation of hazards. Among the sources of uncertainty, the attenuation function is the main contributor and its effect on estimates of risks is investigated. Epistemic uncertainty was considered by obtaining damage estimates for three attenuation functions that were developed for Eastern North America. The results indicate that loss estimates are highly sensitive to the choice of the attenuation function and suggest that epistemic uncertainty should be considered both for the definition of the hazard function and in loss estimation methodologies. Seismic loss estimates are performed for a 2% in 50 years seismic threat, which corresponds to the design level earthquake in the national building code of Canada, using HAZUS-MH4 for the Montreal region over 522 census tracts. The study estimated that for the average scenario roughly 5% of the building stock would be damaged with direct economic losses evaluated at 1.4 billion dollars for such a scenario. The maximum number of casualties would result in approximately 500 people being injured or dead at a calculated time of occurrence of 2?pm. 相似文献
3.
In this paper we have described the proceduresused, input data applied and results achieved in ourefforts to develop seismic hazard maps of Honduras.The probabilistic methodology of Cornell is employed.Numerical calculations were carried out by making useof the computer code SEISRISK III. To examine theimpact of uncertainties in seismic and structuralcharacteristics, the logic tree formalism has beenused. We compiled a de-clustered earthquake cataloguefor the region comprising 1919 earthquakes occurringduring the period from 1963 to 1997. Unified momentmagnitudes were introduced. Definition of aseismotectonic model of the whole region under review,based on geologic, tectonic and seismic information,led to the definition of seven seismogenetic zones forwhich seismic characteristics were determined. Fourdifferent attenuation models were considered. Resultsare expressed in a series of maps of expected PGA for60% and 90% probabilities of nonexceedence in a50-year interval which corresponds to return periodsof 100 and 475 years, respectively. The highest PGAvalues of about 0.4g (90% probability ofnon-exceedence) are expected along the borders withGuatemala and El Salvador. 相似文献
4.
Azadeh Abdollahi Hamed Gharibdoost 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(3):213-222
The North Qazvin region is a part of the Central Alborz Mountains in Iran and has experienced destructive earthquakes. This region is a popular and industrial zone near Tehran, capital of Iran. To identify the highest and lowest seismic hazard location and consequently the seismic zonation of this region, different parameters, such as topography, geology, tectonics and seismicity, have been focused. Accordingly, the north of Qazvin region can be divided into three subzones: western, eastern and southern. Seismic activity of the western zone is higher than the other ones and seismic potential of the eastern zone is higher than the other two zones. This zoning is also necessary for all seismic active areas to find the most dangerous zone. 相似文献
5.
Huang Qinghu Ma Yinsheng Institute of Geomechanics C hinese Academy of Geological Science Beijingand Song Xinchu Seismological Bureau of Zhejiang Province Hangzhou Zhejiang 《《地质学报》英文版》1994,68(1):1-13
This paper discusses the seismic activity in Beijing M unicipality and its adjacent areas (which are referred to as the Beijing region in the paper). By using fuzzy mathematics, the factors controlling regional crustal stability are transformed into fuzzy information and then a model of fuzzy diagnosis is established. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of regional crustal stability in the Beijing region is made according to the seismic and geological conditions of the region. 相似文献
6.
Mohammad Muzzaffar Khan G Kalyan Kumar 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2018,91(6):749-753
Earthquakes constitute one of the most powerful forces to which most civil engineering structures and historical constructions will ever be subjected; and thus designing and preserving structures to resist these forces is of utmost importance. The goal of earthquake-resistant design is to produce a structure or facility that can withstand a certain level of shaking without excessive damage. Seismic hazard analyses involve the quantitative estimation of ground shaking hazards at a particular site.The main objective of this study is to develop a homogeneous earthquake catalogue for the low seismic region Warangal from 1800 to 2016 by considering a circular radius of 500 km. The catalogue is declustered using the algorithm proposed by Uhrhammer (1986) for removal of foreshocks and aftershocks. All the events have been converted to moment magnitude scale for homogenization. Completeness analysis has been carried out using the method proposed by Stepp (1972) to determine the time interval in which the data is complete over different magnitude ranges. The analysis shows that for the magnitude range of 3.0 ≤ M ≤ 3.49, 3.5 ≤ M ≤ 3.99, 4.0 ≤ M ≤ 4.49, 4.5 ≤ M ≤ 4.99, 5.0 ≤ M ≤ 5.49 and M ≤ 5.49, the data is complete for the last 50 years (1967-2016), 60 years (1957-2016), 140 years (1867-2016) and 180 years (1837-2016) respectively. This study will provide a significant under-standing in distribution of earthquakes in Warangal region as well as the assessment of seismic hazard for the region. 相似文献
7.
The Himalayas are one of very active seismic regions in the world where devastating earthquakes of 1803 Bihar–Nepal, 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar–Nepal, 1950 Assam and 2011 Sikkim were reported. Several researchers highlighted central seismic gap based on the stress accumulation in central part of Himalaya and the non-occurrence of earthquake between 1905 Kangra and 1934 Bihar–Nepal. The region has potential of producing great seismic event in the near future. As a result of this seismic gap, all regions which fall adjacent to the active Himalayan region are under high possible seismic hazard due to future earthquakes in the Himalayan region. In this study, the study area of the Lucknow urban centre which lies within 350 km from the central seismic gap has been considered for detailed assessment of seismic hazard. The city of Lucknow also lies close to Lucknow–Faizabad fault having a seismic gap of 350 years. Considering the possible seismic gap in the Himalayan region and also the seismic gap in Lucknow–Faizabad fault, the seismic hazard of Lucknow has been studied based on deterministic and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Results obtained show that the northern and western parts of Lucknow are found to have a peak ground acceleration of 0.11–0.13 g, which is 1.6- to 2.0-fold higher than the seismic hazard compared to the other parts of Lucknow. 相似文献
8.
Indian peninsular shield, which was once considered to be seismically stable, is experiencing many earthquakes recently. As
part of the national level microzonation programme, Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India has initiated microzonation
of greater Bangalore region. The seismic hazard analysis of Bangalore region is carried out as part of this project. The paper
presents the determination of maximum credible earthquake (MCE) and generation of synthetic acceleration time history plot
for the Bangalore region. MCE has been determined by considering the regional seismotectonic activity in about 350 km radius
around Bangalore city. The seismotectonic map has been prepared by considering the faults, lineaments, shear zones in the
area and historic earthquake events of more than 150 events. Shortest distance from the Bangalore to the different sources
is measured and then peak ground acceleration (PGA) is calculated for the different source and moment magnitude. Maximum credible
earthquake found in terms of moment magnitude is 5.1 with PGA value of 0.146 g at city centre with assuming the hypo central
distance of 15.88 km from the focal point. Also, correlations for the fault length with historic earthquake in terms of moment
magnitude, yields (taking the rupture fault length as 5% of the total fault length) a PGA value of 0.159 g. Acceleration time
history (ground motion) and a response acceleration spectrum for the corresponding magnitude has been generated using synthetic
earthquake model considering the regional seismotectonic parameters. The maximum spectral acceleration obtained is 0.332 g
for predominant period of 0.06 s. The PGA value and synthetic earthquake ground motion data from the identified vulnerable
source using seismotectonic map will be useful for the PGA mapping and microzonation of the area. 相似文献
9.
Natural Hazards - The Indo-Gangetic Plains which lies between the Himalayan mountain ranges and peninsular India is considered to be the region of great concern due to its thick sediments and... 相似文献
10.
《Engineering Geology》1986,23(2):95-108
Based on the seismicity and tectonics of the western part of the Arabian Peninsula, a set of potential earthquake sources are identified and the relationships between magnitude and frequency of occurrence are determined. Using available attenuation laws,the individual influences of potential sources are integrated into the probability distribution of maximum annual intensity and peak ground acceleration.The results are presented in the form of seismic risk maps for various return periods, cumulative distribution functions and intensity zone graphs. Based on the results of this study, it is concluded that the seismic hazard potential for the central region is moderate but it is high for the northern and southern provinces. 相似文献
11.
M. Semih Yücemen 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(3):201-226
Probabilistic methods are used to quantify the seismic hazard in Jordan and neighbouring regions. The hazard model incorporates the uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters and the attenuation equation. Seven seismic sources are identified in the region and the seismicity parameters of these sources are estimated by making use of all the available information. Seismic hazard computations and the selection of peak ground acceleration and modified Mercalli intensity values at the nodes of a 25 × 25 km mesh covering the region under study are carried out by two different computer programs.The results of the study are presented through a set of seismic hazard maps displaying iso-acceleration and iso-intensity contours corresponding to specified return periods. The first set of maps is derived based on the seismicity data assessed in this study and display our best estimate of the seismic hazard for Jordan and the neighbouring areas. The second set of maps which shows the alternative estimate of seismic hazard is based solely on the seismicity parameters reported by other researchers. The third set of maps, called the Bayesian estimate of seismic hazard, reflects the influence of expert opinion involving more conservative assumptions regarding the Red Sea and Araba faults. 相似文献
12.
Seismic studies of the crustal structure beneath the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR) region in Central China have been limited by the sparse and uneven distribution of seismic stations.To in-crease the station coverage,we made three deployments of a mobile seismologic array in the TGR re-gion during the three summers from 2008 to 2010.Here we present interpretations along a west-east profile through the central TGR region based on new seismic waveform data and a velocity model con-strained by regional earthquak... 相似文献
13.
N. I. Frolova V. I. Larionov J. Bonnin S. P. Sushchev A. N. Ugarov M. A. Kozlov 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(1):43-62
Earthquakes incur the greatest damage compared with all the other natural deleterious occurrences; when occurring in industrialized and densely populated regions, they can prove devastating. In the Russian Federation, we have more than 20 million people living in regions of moderate and high seismicity. The areas that are hit by earthquakes, with events of intensity VII (MMSK-86 scale) or greater occurring, make up approximately 20% of Russia’s area. The present paper addresses the methodological procedures of risk assessment and databases used for risk computations at different levels. The examples of seismic risk assessment and mapping at different levels: country, region and urban, are given. Special attention is paid to information and web technologies used for verification data on built environment inventory and vulnerability. 相似文献
14.
Ebru HARMANDAR 《《地质学报》英文版》2022,96(1):376-385
Fethiye is an important region located in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Basin.This region which is the most active part of the south-western Anatolia ex... 相似文献
15.
The occurrence of earthquakes, faulting of Pleistocene sediments, uplifting of Pleistocene coral reefs, recent incised wadis and lava effusions in addition to hot springs all clearly indicate that southeastern Saudi Arabia is tectonically active. This paper reviews the tectonic features of southwestern Saudi Arabia and provides new approaches and maps for the interpretation of old and recent earthquake data for improved assessment of the regional tectonics. A regionalized variable approach is used to develop earthquake groundmotion hazard maps for the region, based on geostatistical methods using the kriging technique. This hazard must be considered in any design/construction of engineering structures in the region. The application of kriging for estimating the ground shaking in the study region succeeded clearly in accomplishing its ultimate aim where the generated groundmotions are well correlated with the instrumental magnitude and historical intensity of any earthquake occurrence in the study region. 相似文献
16.
17.
In view of the major advancement made in understanding the seismicity and seismotectonics of the Indian region in recent times, an updated probabilistic seismic hazard map of India covering 6–38°N and 68–98°E is prepared. This paper presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of India done using regional seismic source zones and four well recognized attenuation relations considering varied tectonic provinces in the region. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak Horizontal Acceleration (PHA) and spectral accelerations for periods 0.1 s and 1 s have been estimated and contour maps showing the spatial variation of the same are presented in the paper. The present study shows that the seismic hazard is moderate in peninsular shield, but the hazard in most parts of North and Northeast India is high. 相似文献
18.
Mashael M. Al-Saud 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2008,1(1):49-61
Makkah and central Red Sea regions have been re-evaluated from recent earthquake data analysis. Epicenters of recent seismic
activity are concentrated in three local seismic zones. These are Ad Damm fault (NE), Nu’man–Makkah–Fatima (NW), and Jeddah-Red
Sea (NW) seismic zones. Moreover, an extended seismic zone along the central part of Red Sea is observed. Most of these epicenters
are distributed along tectonic faults, as indicated from the subsurface structure analysis of the aeromagnetic anomaly map.
Some epicenters of small magnitudes are inaccurately located. The study indicates the existence of large active structural
basin south of Makkah region, which traverse Ad Damm fault zone with the Red Sea transform faults. Slip vector analyses were
carried out for 50 available earthquake focal mechanisms around Makkah region. In Nu’man, Makkah, and Fatima structural zones,
the slip vectors generally trend NW and NNW. However, in the southern part at the Ad Dam structure zone, the slip vector trends
NE–SW. These may result from the current complicated drifting motion of Arabian plate away from African plate combined with
the opening of the Red Sea rift. 相似文献
19.
Local soil conditions, roughlysummarised by considering a reference soil for eachmunicipality of the Friuli – Venezia Giulia region inNE Italy, are introduced into probabilistic seismichazard estimates: the subsequent improvement ischecked by comparing these new results and the maximumobserved intensities in each municipality toinvestigate if the major differences betweenprobabilistic estimates and actually observed data canbe explained by local site effects and/or by thegeometry of the seismogenic zones used in thecomputation. In addition, a comparison between the newprobabilistic hazard results, and the standard onesreferred to rock is made for the present and theproposed Italian seismic zonation. The resultsunderline the influence of the seismogenic model used,but are not determinant on the role of site effects. 相似文献
20.
Recai Feyiz Kartal Günay Beyhan Ayhan Keskinsezer Filiz Tuba Kadirioğlu 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(10):4443-4459
Nearly 108-km lengths of Mersin shores are composed of natural beaches. The region is located between major tourist centers. In the future, this region is thought to be built with a great number of tourist facilities. Turkey’s largest seaport, Ata? refinery (Mersin International Port) is located in Mersin. Recently, Mersin is becoming of great importance to Turkey as the latter plans to construct its second nuclear power plant in the region. Therefore, as nuclear power plants are built to withstand environmental hazards, it is very important to analyze the seismic risk of the areas where the nuclear power plant will be constructed. The region is located between the East Anatolian Fault Zone and Center Anatolian Fault Zone. Based on the Turkey Earthquake Regions Map, Mersin is divided into second-, third-, and fourth-degree earthquake regions. In this study, we sampled earthquakes of magnitude of 4.0 or greater between 01 Jan 1900 and 31 Dec 2010 in the area; seismic hazard of Mersin province was estimated with probabilistic and statistical methods. The study area was selected as the coordinates between 36.03° and 37.42° North and 32.57° and 35.16° East. On the study area, different scaled magnitude values in the last 110 years converted to a common scale (Mw) and earthquake catalog was re-compiled and also seismic sources that may affect the area was determined. In this study, the seismic hazards of the region were obtained using the methods of probability and statistics. This study used three different attenuation relationships. Using the attenuation relationships suggested by Boore et al. (Seismol Res Lett 68(1):128–153, 1997) and Kalkan and Gülkan (Earthquake Spectra 20:1111–1138, 2004), the largest ground acceleration which corresponds to a recurrence period of 475 years was found as 0.08–0.09 g and Akkar and Ça?nan (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100 6:2978–2995, 2010), 0.04 g for bedrock at the central district. When computing for seismic hazard curves, Mut district appears to have a greater seismic hazard compared with other districts. Moreover, according to the attenuation relationships, seismic hazard curves corresponding to a recurrence period of 475 years were obtained for the Mersin Central, Mut, Erdemli, Çaml?yayla, and Tarsus districts. 相似文献