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1.
长江中游荆江的水沙通过三口洪道分流入洞庭湖,三口分流是荆江-洞庭湖关系调整的驱动因子,为揭示其变化特征及三峡工程运用的影响,基于大量的原观数据,系统研究了近60年三口分流比的变化过程,提出其显著调整特征及诱发因素,引入径流还原计算方法,量化了三峡水库不同运用方式对三口分流量的影响幅度。结果表明:①特大洪水及重大人类活动等诱发因素作用下,三口分流比出现4~5年持续性减小的趋势调整期,之后进入分流比稳定恢复的平衡调整期;②2003-2014年,三峡水库汛前枯水补偿调度使得三口分流量年均增加8.000亿m3,汛后蓄水使得三口分流量年均减小29.00亿m3,对三口分流综合影响量为年均减少21.00亿m3,占同期三口年均分流量的4.29%。 相似文献
2.
三峡库区絮凝现象是细颗粒泥沙淤积的重要原因,泥沙絮凝临界条件对三峡库区泥沙淤积规律和模拟具有重要意义。在三峡库区忠县和奉节河段开展泥沙絮凝的现场测量,基于声学多普勒流速仪（Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter,ADV）和泥沙采样测得同步的瞬时流速和含沙量,通过泥沙扩散理论反算现场泥沙沉速及絮团粒径,得到了三峡库区泥沙絮凝度及其与粒径、流速和含沙量的关系。结果表明:库区细颗粒泥沙发生絮凝,且多为中轻度絮凝,重度絮凝较少;库区泥沙絮凝的临界粒径约为0.018 mm,临界流速约为0.7 m/s,临界含沙量约为0.8 kg/m3。研究结果可为三峡库区泥沙的运动规律以及泥沙淤积模拟等提供一定的理论支撑。 相似文献
3.
华北地区距雄安新区300 km范围内包括唐山、邢台和张北三个典型强震区,近50年来,先后发生1966年邢台7.2级、1976年唐山7.8级和1998年张北6.2级强震活动,未来仍具发生破坏性地震的风险。在现今构造应力环境下,3个典型强震区内断裂活动危险性如何、再次发生中强地震对雄安新区地面稳定性有怎样的影响,这些都是要回答的问题。对此,本文首先基于唐山、邢台和张北强震区关键构造部位深孔水压致裂地应力测量数据,依据Byerlee断层滑动失稳摩擦准则,计算各强震区内潜在发震断层的临界失稳状态,探讨断裂活动危险性;之后依据中华人民共和国第五代《中国地震动参数区划图》之《中国大陆及邻区潜在震源区划分图》,厘定雄安新区外围300 km范围内主要潜在震源区和震级上限;最后选取适宜的地震烈度衰减模型,定量计算主要潜在震源区未来发生震级上限地震时对雄安新区地震烈度的影响,进而为雄安新区及重大工程抗震设防提供科学参考。结果表明：(1)唐山、邢台和张北强震区内主要潜在震源区未来发生震级上限地震产生的地震烈度衰减至雄安新区时均位于Ⅳ~Ⅶ度;(2)北京通州及邻区发生8.0级地震、涞水—高碑店沿线发生6.5级地震会在雄安新区产生Ⅶ度地震烈度,震害较轻;(3)其他潜在震源区在雄安新区产生的地震烈度均小于V度,并不会产生显著震害效应。鉴于此,雄安新区抗震设防烈度建议由原Ⅶ度调至Ⅷ度为宜。 相似文献
4.
利用地震波场参数探讨岩性非均质的分布 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文利用 Ｓ Ｔ Ｍ 地区二维地震资料中提取中油组的主振幅参数与岩性参数进行相关拟合,并依据岩性分析资料和调谐厚度将其划分为三个区带：低振幅带、正常振幅带和异常高振幅带。综合分析油气测试结果、岩性统计资料后认为,其中的异常高振幅带是结构疏松、孔隙发育、连通性好的均质储层分布区,并从合成记录和理论模型正演结果对上述结论进行了证实。结合沉积相分析成果,将该地区的岩性非均质划分为三种类型,后期在优质储层均质区块中钻探获得了高产工业油气流,从而证实了从地震角度划分岩性非均质分布,不仅是可行的,而且是准确的。该方法不仅拓宽了地震资料的应用范围,也为寻找有利油气富集区提供了一种行之有效的方法。 相似文献
5.
A. N. Ovsyuchenko S. V. Trofimenko S. S. Novikov A. N. Didenko V. S. Imaev 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2018,12(2):135-150
The studied region is located at the junction between the Pacific and Central Asian seismoactive belts. Macroseismic data on earthquakes of this region are available for the last 150 years, while instrumental seismological observations began in the mid-20th century; however, the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes can be up to several centuries and even thousands of years. In this respect, many areas of the Amur region had been believed to be nearly aseismic until earthquakes occurred there. Paleoseismogeological studies of recent years have allowed the character of Holocene displacements to be estimated for some of the main regional structures. As a result, the main tendencies of the Late Quaternary geological evolution of the region remain uncertain and the potential seismogenerating structures are not completely known. Therefore the problem of revealing new zones and periods of seismic activity is topical for the entire Amur region. The importance of this problem is related to the weak degree of study of the region by contemporary methods of active tectonics, the intensive development of engineering infrastructure, which is vulnerable to seismic impacts, and the necessity of long-term seismic forecasting. The present work provides the results of paleoseismogeological studies of the active faults in the Amur region. On the basis of new data on the magnitude potential of seismogenerating structures based on the magnitudes of historical earthquakes and instrumentally recorded ones, we have estimated the seismic effects from strong deep-focus earthquakes and the attenuation coefficients and calculated radii of the first three isoseismals for crustal earthquakes. By using the methods of statistical modeling, we distinguish the periods when seismic effects increased from earthquakes with 2 ≤ M ≤ 6. It is shown that seismic hazard assessment should take into account the dynamics of the seismic regime, caused by the change of the earthquake source depth. It is found that the epicenters of earthquakes with 5 ≤ M ≤ 6 form non-crossing seismic zones in different phases of changes in the Earth’s annual rotation. 相似文献
6.
河道型水库因动库容特性显著,传统的静库容调洪方法难以适用,研究动库容调洪方法是亟待解决的问题。当坝前水位爬升到最高点时,库区内的洪水演进到达一种临界状态,库区内的水文、水力条件相对稳定,在出库流量和入库流量一定的情况下,可望获得最高坝前水位与同时刻库容之间良好的对应关系。依托三峡库区水文水动力耦合预报模型,建立了一组以出库流量、入库流量为参数的动库容曲线,以供调洪时快速查算最高坝前水位。采用2009年以来三峡水库16场场次洪水资料,检验所建动库容曲线的合理性。结果表明,各场洪水的最高库水位查算值与实况平均偏差仅0.20m,证明建立的基于动库容曲线的三峡水库最高库水位查算方法具有较好的实践价值。 相似文献
7.
Amir BARZEGARI Manouchehr GHORASHI Hamid NAZARI Michel FONTUGNE Mohammad A. SHOKRI Mohsen POURKERMANI 《《地质学报》英文版》2017,91(5):1553-1572
The Astara Fault System(AFS) is located in the northwest Alborz, east of Talesh Mountain(TM) and west of the South Caspian Basin(SCB). The AFS is one of the basement rock faults in Iran that is heavily involved in seismotectonic activity of the Talesh region, and to which subsidence of the SCB is attributed. There is little information available concerning previous AFS seismic activities and its properties. In order to elucidate the seismic behavior and activities of the AFS, we conducted a research study on paleoseismology of the fault. Based on paleoseismic evidence, two scenarios could be taken into consideration, one of which has three and another has four seismic events with magnitudes Mw in the range of 6.7 to 7.2. Evidence of these seismic events is within sedimentary succession as they have occurred during the past 3 ka(this age is determined based on the deposition rate of the region). Six carbon samples were taken for C~(14) age determination tests, the results of which clearly demonstrated that the EvIV(scenario A) and EvⅢ(scenario B) had occurred before 27,444 cal BP, while other events occurred in the time period between 27,444 cal BP and 3 ka ago. If we consider the occurrence of three or four seismic events(based on the two scenarios) to be between 27,444 cal BP and 3 ka ago, the average recurrence interval is 7,119 ± 1,017, but evidence for these events has been removed. If we assume EvI to be the youngest event(in both scenarios), the minimum elapsed time is therefore 3 ka. 相似文献
8.
为保护三峡库区水环境,应对库区支流富营养化演变态势进行模拟预测.以受三峡水库蓄水影响显著的代表性支流大宁河为例,在考虑营养盐、气候条件(包括水温和光照)对藻类生长速率影响的基础上,针对三峡库区特点,着重研究水动力条件对藻类生长速率的影响规律,进行富营养化模型综合开发研究,并利用三峡水库蓄水后大宁河回水影响区河段实测资料进行模型验证计算.结果表明,该模型能较好地反映三峡水库蓄水后,库区支流水环境条件发生显著变化状态下藻类生长繁衍特点,能够用来进行三峡库区富营养化预测,也可为其他类似水域研究富营养化问题提供参考. 相似文献
9.
Azadeh Abdollahi Hamed Gharibdoost 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(3):213-222
The North Qazvin region is a part of the Central Alborz Mountains in Iran and has experienced destructive earthquakes. This region is a popular and industrial zone near Tehran, capital of Iran. To identify the highest and lowest seismic hazard location and consequently the seismic zonation of this region, different parameters, such as topography, geology, tectonics and seismicity, have been focused. Accordingly, the north of Qazvin region can be divided into three subzones: western, eastern and southern. Seismic activity of the western zone is higher than the other ones and seismic potential of the eastern zone is higher than the other two zones. This zoning is also necessary for all seismic active areas to find the most dangerous zone. 相似文献
10.
In estimating the likelihood of an earthquake hazard for a seismically active region, information on the geometry of the potential
source is important in quantifying the seismic hazard. The damage from an earthquake varies spatially and is governed by the
fault geometry and lithology. As earthquake damage is amplified by guided seismic waves along fault zones, it is important
to delineate the disposition of the fault zones by precisely determined hypocentral parameters. We used the double difference
(DD) algorithm to relocate earthquakes in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone (KWSZ) region, with the P- and S-wave catalog data
from relative arrival time pairs constituting the input. A significant improvement in the hypocentral estimates was achieved,
with the epicentral errors <30 m and focal depth errors <75 m i.e. errors have been significantly reduced by an order of magnitude
from the parameters determined by HYPO71. The earthquake activity defines three different fault segments. The seismogenic volume is shallower in the south by 3 km,
with seismicity in the north extending to a depth of 11 km while in the south the deepest seismicity observed is at a depth
of 8 km. By resolving the structure of seismicity in greater detail, we address the salient issues related to the seismotectonics
of this region. 相似文献
11.
准噶尔盆地西北缘百口泉地区百58井区是一个被多条断裂切割的复杂断块区,地层倾角变化大;现有的三维地震资料成果剖面上地震波组连续性差,断裂带附近资料成像模糊,地层接触关系不清楚,很难进行精细构造解释。为获得研究区沉积盖层精细结构,在详细分析原始地震资料特点和存在问题的基础上,有针对性地采用叠前多域去噪和非线性叠前时间偏移等多种处理技术,对已有的三维地震资料进行了高分辨率精细成像处理。新的成果剖面揭示出该区百－乌断裂带发育特征、空间展布及平面组合关系。根据地层厚度、构造特征、地震反射波组特征等,划分该区地层为二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系－白垩系三大构造层,以三大构造层不同的构造特征为依据确定了研究区分为西部推覆构造带、中部断阶构造带和东部斜坡构造带3个构造单元。 相似文献
12.
三峡库区的洪峰流量受入库支流洪水及水库运行方式的影响并表现出显著的空间变异性, 开展基于来水组成的入库洪峰及其在库区传播特征的研究, 有助于进一步认识河道型水库的水动力机理并支撑三峡水库优化调度实践。利用水文统计学及河流动力学理论, 分析三峡水库2011—2020年实测的逐日流量数据, 结果表明: ①提出的阈值方法, 能够有效统计任一场次洪水对应库区各站的洪峰流量; ②当入库洪峰流量大于40000 m3/s时, 各支流洪水峰现时刻的异步特性对入库洪峰流量的影响相对较小; ③清溪场、万县的洪峰流量主要取决于入库洪峰流量, 庙河、黄陵庙的洪峰流量还取决于三峡水库的调度运行并随入库洪峰流量呈分段变化的趋势; ④针对不同类型的洪峰, 建立了清溪场、万县洪峰流量的计算公式。 相似文献
13.
在Hudson理论的基础上推导出基于弹性—声学近似的裂缝模型反射系数计算公式,然后用变参考慢度Rytov近似波场延拓算子,对给定裂缝模型进行正演和偏移,并分析其波场特征,得到以下三点结论:1在当前地震分辨率下,不能识别单个裂缝,但可以探测裂缝发育带;2裂缝带达到一定的宽度和密度,可以用地震方法检测裂缝的分布,潜山内幕反射波的范围与强弱,有利于研究裂缝发育带的宽度和密度;3裂缝带的低频复波反射,表明在裂缝发育带,地震波频率减低,意味着用地震波的频率特征是可以检测裂缝。 相似文献
14.
福建省地震重点视防御区城市防震减灾体系工程以中国地震局关于建立健全地震监测预报、震灾预防和紧急救援三大体系为主要目标 ,以国家和福建省确定的地震重点监视防御区为主要目标区 ,尤以切实加强重点监视防御内城市的防震减灾措施 ,强化城市对地震灾害的综合防御能力为主要建设内容。该项目得到中国地震局、福建省委、省政府和有关地市大力支持 ,已列为福建省“十五”重点项目 ,省委、省政府为民办实事重点项目 相似文献
15.
三峡工程的运行对鄱阳湖防洪形势存在潜在影响。以三峡-鄱阳湖系统为典型,采用基于copula理论的多维联合分布函数,建立三峡工程运行前长江-鄱阳湖-"五河"(赣江、抚河、信江、饶河、修河)系统中水文要素之间的联合概率分布及条件概率分布,并假设该条件分布关系在三峡工程运行前后保持不变;估计三峡工程运行后长江水文要素的概率分布,结合前面的条件概率分布,可以得到三峡工程运行后研究变量的概率分布;对比分析前后概率分布的变化,即可从统计角度评价三峡水库运行对鄱阳湖水文情势的影响。研究表明:三峡工程运行对鄱阳湖水位有一定影响;5、6月份三峡预泄,将增高鄱阳湖水位,其中,平均水位的增幅大于最高水位增幅,低水增幅大于高水增幅;三峡预泄影响下,湖区圩堤堤前水位没有超过原有堤防设计水位,没有降低湖区圩堤的防洪标准。 相似文献
16.
17.
为研究三峡水库运行前后洞庭湖洲滩面积的变化特征及原因,利用1994-2016年128个时相的多平台卫星遥感数据,结合城陵矶多年水位观测资料、洞庭湖的多年泥沙出入资料,建立水位与洲滩面积的关系曲线.结果表明,三峡水库运行后,洞庭湖水位和洲滩面积的变化幅度小于运行前,二者呈线性关系.洞庭湖洲滩面积在不同时间段线性趋势不同,总体呈先扩张后萎缩的特征.与三峡水库运行前相比,三峡水库运行后同一水位下洞庭湖洲滩面积更大;且水位越高,增幅越大.三峡水库运行前,洞庭湖泥沙处于不断淤积的状态;运行后,泥沙淤积量降低直至负数,洲滩高程以1.59 mm/a的速率降低.三峡水库的运行和湖砂开采,是影响洞庭湖洲滩面积变化的重要原因. 相似文献
18.
The state of Chiapas (SE México) conforms a territory of complex tectonics and high seismic activity. The interaction among the Cocos, North American and Caribbean tectonic plates, as well as the active crustal deformation inside Chiapas, determines a variety of seismogenic sources of distinct characteristics and particular strong ground motion attenuation. This situation makes the assessment of seismic hazard in the region a challenging task. In this work, we follow the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, starting from the compilation of an earthquake catalogue, and the definition of seismogenic source-zones based on the particular seismotectonics of the region: plate-subduction-related sources (interface and intraslab zones), active crustal deformation zones and the shear zone between the North American and Caribbean plates formed by the Motagua, Polochic and Ixcán faults. The latter source is modelled in two different configurations: one single source-zone and three distinct ones. We select three ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) recommended for South and Central America, plus two Mexican ones. We combine the GMPEs with the source-zone models in a logic tree scheme and produce hazard maps in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for the 500-, 1000- and 2500-year return periods, as well as uniform hazard spectra for the towns of Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Tapachula and San Cristóbal. We obtain higher values in comparison with previous seismic hazard studies and particularly much higher than the output of the Prodisis v.2.3 software for seismic design in México. Our results are consistent with those of neighbouring Guatemala obtained in a recent study for Central America.
相似文献19.
Akio Yoshida 《Tectonophysics》1987,140(2-4):131-143
Seismic activity in the region surrounding the foci is investigated for three severe earthquakes (two with a magnitude of 6.1 and one with a magnitude of 5.3) which have occurred in Japan in recent years. The most conspicuous feature commonly noticed is precursory activation of seismic belts which include the focal regions of main shocks. The repetition of the same pattern in the space-time distribution of earthquake occurrence along the seismic belt is also observed for each case. The precursory activity of seismic belts terminates in rather a short period and, after that, the area around the focus of the forthcoming large earthquake becomes quiescent, which demonstrates the appearance of the seismic gap of the second kind (Mogi, 1979). The periods of seismic quiescence for the cases investigated in this paper are longer than those which are given by the regression relationship between earthquake magnitude and precursor time proposed for example, by Sekiya (1977). However, our definition of anomalous seismic activity is clear, and it is possible to give a physical meaning to it as an increase in the local stress field in the seismic belt. We propose that a kind of coupling between intraplate tectonic blocks, analogous to interplate coupling in the subduction region, is responsible for the formation of the stress field relevant to these earthquakes. Although this is at present only one of the possible viewpoints on the formation of the focal region of large intraplate earthquakes, it may be worthwhile to study various precursory phenomena in-connection with this hypothesis. 相似文献
20.
汛限水位是综合利用水库运行和调度的重要参数之一,也是协调防洪和兴利矛盾的焦点所在。现行的汛限水位过多地考虑了小概率洪水事件,不能充分挖掘水库汛期的兴利效益,因此,采用动态汛限水位进行调度,对综合利用水库的运行具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。根据三峡水库围堰发电期的调度规程,建立预报预泄调度模型,采用宜昌站1882-2001年汛期实测日流量资料,实现了考虑预报信息的动态汛限水位洪水调度模拟;提出了多目标风险指标体系;计算了9种动态汛限水位方案下的风险指标值,通过综合评价模型对各方案进行比较和优选,得到了相对合理的动态汛限水位方案。 相似文献