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1.
Downscaling techniques are the required tools to link the global climate model outputs provided at a coarse grid resolution to finer scale surface variables appropriate for climate change impact studies. Besides the at-site temporal persistence, the downscaled variables have to satisfy the spatial dependence naturally observed between the climate variables at different locations. Furthermore, the precipitation spatial intermittency should be fulfilled. Because of the complexity in describing these properties, they are often ignored, which can affect the effectiveness of the hydrologic process modeling. This study is a continuation of the work by Khalili and Nguyen (Clim Dyn 49(7–8):2261–2278. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3443-6, 2017) regarding the multi-site statistical downscaling of daily precipitation series. Different approach of multi-site statistical downscaling based on the concept of the spatial autocorrelation is presented in this paper. This approach has proven to give effective results for multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling of daily extreme temperature time series (Khalili et al. in Int J Climatol 33:15–32. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3402, 2013). However, more challenges are presented by the precipitation variable because of the high spatio-temporal variability and intermittency. The proposed approach consists of logistic and multiple regression models, linking the global climate predictors to the precipitation occurrences and amounts respectively, and using the spatial autocorrelation concept to reproduce the spatial dependence observed between the precipitation series at different sites. An empirical technique has also been involved in this approach in order to fulfill the precipitation intermittency property. The proposed approach was performed using observed daily precipitation data from ten weather stations located in the southwest region of Quebec and southeast region of Ontario in Canada, and climate predictors from the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis dataset. The results have proven the ability of the proposed approach to adequately reproduce the observed precipitation occurrence and amount characteristics, temporal and spatial dependence, spatial intermittency and temporal variability. 相似文献
2.
K. Manchuel P. Traversa D. Baumont M. Cara E. Nayman C. Durouchoux 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2227-2251
In regions that undergo low deformation rates, as is the case for metropolitan France (i.e. the part of France in Europe), the use of historical seismicity, in addition to instrumental data, is necessary when dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This paper presents the strategy adopted to develop a parametric earthquake catalogue using moment magnitude Mw, as the reference magnitude scale to cover both instrumental and historical periods for metropolitan France. Work performed within the framework of the SiHex (SIsmicité de l’HEXagone) (Cara et al. Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3–19, 2015. doi: 10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3) and SIGMA (SeIsmic Ground Motion Assessment; EDF-CEA-AREVA-ENEL) projects, respectively on instrumental and historical earthquakes, have been combined to produce the French seismic CATalogue, version 2017 (FCAT-17). The SiHex catalogue is composed of ~40,000 natural earthquakes, for which the hypocentral location and Mw magnitude are given. In the frame of the SIGMA research program, an integrated study has been realized on historical seismicity from intensity prediction equations (IPE) calibration in Mw detailed in Baumont et al. (submitted) companion paper to their application to earthquakes of the SISFRANCE macroseismic database (BRGM, EDF, IRSN), through a dedicated strategy developed by Traversa et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10518-017-0178-7) companion paper, to compute their Mw magnitude and depth. Macroseismic data and epicentral location and intensity used both in IPE calibration and inversion process, are those of SISFRANCE without any revision. The inversion process allows the main macroseismic field specificities reported by SISFRANCE to be taken into account with an exploration tree approach. It also allows capturing the epistemic uncertainties associated with macroseismic data and to IPEs selection. For events that exhibit a poorly constrained macroseismic field (mainly old, cross border or off-shore earthquakes), joint inversion of Mw and depth is not possible, and depth needs to be fixed to calculate Mw. Regional a priori depths have been defined for this purpose based on analysis of earthquakes with a well constrained macroseismic field where joint inversion of Mw and depth is possible. As a result, 27% of SISFRANCE earthquake seismological parameters have been jointly inverted and for the other 73% Mw has been calculated assuming a priori depths. The FCAT-17 catalogue is composed of the SIGMA historical parametric catalogue (magnitude range between 3.5 up to 7.0), covering from AD463 to 1965, and of the SiHex instrumental one, extending from 1965 to 2009. Historical part of the catalogue results from an automatic inversion of SISFRANCE data. A quality index is estimated for each historical earthquake according to the way the events are processed. All magnitudes are given in Mw which makes this catalogue directly usable as an input for probabilistic or deterministic seismic hazard studies. Uncertainties on magnitudes and depths are provided for historical earthquakes following calculation scheme presented in Traversa et al. (2017). Uncertainties on magnitudes for instrumental events are from Cara et al. (J Seismol 21:551–565, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10950-016-9617-1). 相似文献
3.
David Baumont Kévin Manchuel Paola Traversa Christophe Durouchoux Emmanuelle Nayman Gabriele Ameri 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2285-2310
In the framework of the SIGMA project, a study was launched to develop a parametric earthquake catalog for the historical period, covering the metropolitan territory and calibrated in Mw. A set of candidate calibration events was selected corresponding to earthquakes felt over a part of the French metropolitan territory, which are fairly well documented both in terms of macroseismic intensity distributions (SisFrance BRGM-EDF-IRSN) and magnitude estimates. The detailed analysis of the macroseismic data led us to retain only 30 events out of 65 with Mw ranging from 3.6 to 5.8. In order to supplement the dataset with data from larger magnitude events, Italian earthquakes were also considered (11 events posterior to 1900 with Mw?≥?6.0 out of 15 in total), using both the DBMI11 macroseismic database (Locati et al. in Seismol Resour Lett 85(3):727–734, 2014) and the parametric information from the CPTI11 (Rovida et al. in CPTI11, la versione 2011 del Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica et Vulcanologia, Milano, Bologna, 2011. https://doi.org/10.6092/ingv.it-cpti11). To avoid introducing bias related to the differences in terms of intensity scales (MSK vs. MCS), only intensities smaller than or equal to VII were considered (Traversa et al. in On the use of cross-border macroseismic data to improve the estimation of past earthquakes seismological parameters, 2014). Mw and depth metadata were defined according to the Si-Hex catalogue (Cara et al. in Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3–19, 2015. https://doi.org/10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3), published information, and to the specific worked conducted within SIGMA related to early instrumental recordings (Benjumea et al. in Study of instrumented earthquakes that occurred during the first part of the 20th century (1905–1962), 2015). For the depth estimates, we also performed a macroseismic analysis to evaluate the range of plausible estimates and check the consistency of the solutions. Uncertainties on the metadata related to the calibration earthquakes were evaluated using the range of available alternative estimates. The intensity attenuation models were developed using a one-step maximum likelihood scheme. Several mathematical formulations and sub-datasets were considered to evaluate the robustness of the results (similarly to Baumont and Scotti in Accounting for data and modeling uncertainties in empirical macroseismic predictive equations (EMPEs). Towards “European” EMPEs based on SISFRANCE, DBMI, ECOS macroseismic database, 2008). In particular, as the region of interest may be characterized by significant laterally varying attenuation properties (Bakun and Scotti in Geophys J Int 164:596–610, 2006; Gasperini in Bull Seismol Soc Am 91:826–841, 2001), we introduced regional attenuation terms to account for this variability. Two zonation schemes were tested, one at the national scale (France/Italy), another at the regional scale based on the studies of Mayor et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0124-8) for France and Gasperini (2001) for Italy. Between and within event residuals were analyzed in detail to identify the best models, that is, the ones associated with the best misfit and most limited residual trends with intensity and distance. This analysis led us to select four sets of models for which no significant trend in the between- and within-event residuals is detected. These models are considered to be valid over a wide range of Mw covering?~?3.5–7.0. 相似文献
4.
T. Lopez R. Antoine Y. Kerr J. Darrozes M. Rabinowicz G. Ramillien A. Cazenave P. Genthon 《Surveys in Geophysics》2016,37(2):471-502
In the Lake Chad basin, the quaternary phreatic aquifer (named hereafter QPA) presents large piezometric anomalies referred to as domes and depressions whose depths are ~15 and ~60 m, respectively. A previous study (Leblanc et al. in Geophys Res Lett, 2003, doi: 10.1029/2003GL018094) noticed that brightness temperatures from METEOSAT infrared images of the Lake Chad basin are correlated with the QPA piezometry. Indeed, at the same latitude, domes are ~4–5 K warmer than the depressions. Leblanc et al. (Geophys Res Lett, 2003, doi: 10.1029/2003GL018094) suggested that such a thermal behaviour results from an evapotranspiration excess above the piezometric depressions, an interpretation implicitly assuming that the QPA is separated from the other aquifers by the clay-rich Pliocene formation. Based on satellite visible images, here we find evidence of giant polygons, an observation that suggests instead a local vertical connectivity between the different aquifers. We developed a numerical water convective model giving an alternative explanation for the development of QPA depressions and domes. Beneath the depressions, a cold descending water convective current sucks down the overlying QPA, while, beneath the dome, a warm ascending current produces overpressure. Such a basin-wide circulation is consistent with the water geochemistry. We further propose that the thermal diurnal and evaporation/condensation cycles specific to the water ascending current explain why domes are warmer. We finally discuss the possible influence of the inferred convective circulation on the transient variations of the QPA reported from observations of piezometric levels and GRACE-based water mass change over the region. 相似文献
5.
David Vincent Özgur Karatekin Valentin Vallaeys Alexander G. Hayes Marco Mastrogiuseppe Claudia Notarnicola Véronique Dehant Eric Deleersnijder 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(4):461-482
In the context of the emergence of extra-terrestrial oceanography, we adapted an existing oceanographic model, SLIM (www.climate.be/slim), to the conditions of Titan, a moon of Saturn. The tidal response of the largest southern lake at Titan’s surface, namely Ontario Lacus, is simulated. SLIM solves the 2D, depth-averaged shallow water equations on an unstructured mesh using the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, which allows for high spatial resolution wherever needed. The impact of the wind forcing, the bathymetry, and the bottom friction is also discussed. The predicted maximum tidal range is about 0.56 m in the southern part of the lake, which is more than twice as large as the previous estimates (see Tokano, Ocean Dyn 60:(4) 803–817 10.1007/s10236-010-0285-3 (Tokano 2010)). The patterns and magnitude of the current are also markedly different from those of previous studies: the tidal motion is not aligned with the major axis of the lake and the speed is larger nearshore. Indeed, the main tidal component rotates clockwise in an exact period of one Titan day and the tidal currents can reach 0.046 ms ?1 close to the shores depending on the geometry and the bathymetry. Except for these specific nearshore regions, the current speed is less than 0.02 ms ?1. Circular patterns can be observed offshore, their rotational direction and size varying along the day. 相似文献
6.
Abstract The Korba aquifer, located in the north of Tunisia, suffers heavily from salinization due to seawater intrusion. In 2000, the aquifer was exploited from more than 9000 wells. The problem is that no precise information was recorded concerning the current extraction rates, their spatial distribution, or their evolution in time. In this study, a geostatistical model of the exploitation rates was constructed based on a multi-linear regression model combining incomplete direct data and exhaustive secondary information. The impacts of the uncertainty on the spatial distribution of the pumping rates on seawater intrusion were evaluated using a 3-D density-dependent groundwater model. To circumvent the large amount of computing time required to run transient models, the simulations were run in a parallel fashion on the Grid infrastructure provided by the Enabling Grid for E-Science in Europe project. Monte Carlo simulations results showed that 8.3% of the aquifer area is affected by input uncertainty. Citation Kerrou, J., Renard, P., Lecca, G. & Tarhouni, J. (2010) Grid-enabled Monte Carlo analysis of the impacts of uncertain discharge rates on seawater intrusion in the Korba aquifer (Tunisia). Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1325–1336. 相似文献
7.
Laboratory experiments of decaying grid stratified turbulence were performed in a two-layer fluid and varying the stratification intensity. Turbulence was generated by towing an array of cylinders in a square vessel and the grid was moved at a constant velocity along the total vertical extent of the tank. In order to investigate the influence of the stratification intensity on the turbulence decay, both 2C-PIV and stereo PIV were used to provide time resolved velocity fields in the horizontal plane and the out-of-plane velocity. As expected, a faster decay of the turbulence level along the vertical axis and the collapse in a quasi-horizontal motion increased with the buoyancy frequency, N. In order to characterise the decay process we investigated the time evolution of the vortex statistics, the turbulence scales and the kinetic energy and enstrophy of the horizontal flow. The exponents recovered in the corresponding scaling laws were compared with the theoretical predictions and with reference values obtained in previous experimental studies. Both the spectral analysis and the evolution of characteristic length scales indicate that, in the examined range of N, the dynamics is substantially independent of the stratification intensity. The results obtained were explained in terms of the scaling analysis of decaying turbulence in strongly stratified fluids introduced by Brethouwer et al. (J Fluid Mech 585:343–368. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022112007006854, 2007). 相似文献
8.
Nasser Laouami Mohamed Hadid Noureddine Mezouar 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(12):5843-5874
Nowadays, most of the site classifications schemes are based on the predominant period of the site as determined from the average horizontal to vertical spectral ratios of seismic motion or microtremor. However, the difficulty lies in the identification of the predominant period in particular if the observed average response spectral ratio does not present a clear peak but rather a broadband amplification or multiple peaks. In this work, based on the Eurocode-8 (2004) site classification, and assuming bounded random fields for both shear and compression waves-velocities, damping coefficient, natural period and depth of soil profile, one propose a new site-classification approach, based on “target” simulated average \( H/V \) spectral ratios, defined for each soil class. Taking advantage of the relationship of Kawase et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101:2001–2014, 2011), which link the \( H/V \) spectral ratio to the horizontal (\( HTF \)) over the vertical (\( VTF \)) transfer functions, statistics of \( H/V \) spectral ratio via deterministic visco-elastic seismic analysis using the wave propagation theory are computed for the 4 soil classes. The obtained results show that \( H/V \) and \( HTF \) have amplitudes and shapes remarkably different among the four soil classes and exhibit fundamental peaks in the period ranges remarkably similar. Moreover, the “target” simulated average \( H/V \) spectral ratios for the 4 soil classes are in good agreement with the experimental ones obtained by Zhao et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 96:914–925, 2006) from the abundant and reliable Japanese strong motions database Kik-net, Ghasemi et al. (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 29:121–132, 2009) from the Iranian strong motion data, and Di Alessandro et al. (Bull Sesismol Soc Am 106:2, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120110084) from the Italian strong motion data. In addition to the 4 EC-8 standard soil classes (A, B, C and D), the superposition of the 4 target \( H/V \) reveals 3 new boundary site classes; AB, BC and CD, for overlapping \( V_{s,30} \) ranges when the predominant peak is not clearly consistent with any of the 4 proposed classes. Finally, one proposes a site classification index based on the ratio between the cross-correlation and the mean quadratic error between the in situ \( H/V \) spectral ratio and the “target” one. In order to test the reliability of the proposed approach, data from 139 sites were used, 132 collected from the Kik-net network database from Japan and 7 from Algeria. The site classification success rate per site class are around 93, 82, 89 and 100% for rock, hard soil, medium soil and soft soil, respectively. Zhao et al. (2006) found an average success for the 4 classes of soil close to 60%, similar to what one found in the present study (63%) without considering the new soil classes, but much smaller if one considers them (86%). In the absence of \( V_{s,30} \) data, the proposed approach can be an alternative to site classification. 相似文献
9.
Dubovikov and Canuto (Dubovikov, M.S. and Canuto, V.M., Complete Eulerian-mean tracer equation for coarse resolution OGCMs. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn., 2006, 100, 197–214), after averaging the tracer conservation equation in density coordinates and transforming to height coordinates, concluded that present ocean models are missing important terms in their mean tracer equations. Here we point out some errors made by Dubovikov and Canuto (2006) in their isopycnal averaging procedure. We draw on the temporal-residual-mean (TRM) theory and show that when the isopycnal averaging and coordinate transformation are performed correctly, the tracer equations of present ocean circulation models are recovered. We therefore conclude that present ocean circulation models are not neglecting the leading order terms identified by Dubovikov and Canuto (2006). 相似文献
10.
11.
In a companion article Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4, 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) present a new ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for estimating 5 %-damped horizontal pseudo-acceleration spectral (PSA) ordinates for shallow active crustal regions in Europe and the Middle East. This study provides a supplementary viscous damping model to modify 5 %-damped horizontal spectral ordinates of Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) for damping ratios ranging from 1 to 50 %. The paper also presents another damping model for scaling 5 %-damped vertical spectral ordinates that can be estimated from the vertical-to-horizontal (V/H) spectral ratio GMPE that is also developed within the context of this study. For consistency in engineering applications, the horizontal and vertical damping models cover the same damping ratios as noted above. The article concludes by introducing period-dependent correlation coefficients to compute horizontal and vertical conditional mean spectra (Baker in J Struct Eng 137:322–331, 2011). The applicability range of the presented models is the same as of the horizontal GMPE proposed by Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b): as for spectral periods $0.01 \hbox { s}\le \,\hbox {T}\le \,4\hbox { s}$ as well as PGA and PGV for V/H model; and in terms of seismological estimator parameters $4\le \hbox {M}_\mathrm{w} \le 8, \hbox { R} \le 200 \hbox { km}, 150\hbox { m/s}\le \hbox { V}_\mathrm{S30}\le $ 1,200 m/s, for reverse, normal and strike-slip faults. The source-to-site distance measures that can be used in the computations are epicentral $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{epi})$ , hypocentral $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{hyp})$ and Joyner–Boore $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{JB})$ distances. The implementation of the proposed GMPEs will facilitate site-specific adjustments of the spectral amplitudes predicted from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe and the Middle East region. They can also help expressing the site-specific design ground motion in several formats. The consistency of the proposed models together with the Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) GMPE may be advantageous for future modifications in the ground-motion definition in Eurocode 8 (CEN in Eurocode 8, Design of structures for earthquake resistance—part 1: general rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings. European Standard NF EN 1998-1, Brussels, 2004). 相似文献
12.
Abstract Temperature profiles (temperature as function of depth) can be used to derive vertical flow velocities or recharge rates. In many cases, solutions to the one-dimensional (1-D) heat transport equation are used, considering steady-state boundary conditions. Factors which can influence the derivation of the mean vertical flow velocity are studied here. Therefore, an explicit finite-difference approximation to the 1-D heat transport equation coupled with an inverse scheme was used to interpret temperature profiles. Measurement error (larger than 0.05°C) can result in important deviation of the derived mean flow velocity. Variation of vertical flow velocity as a function of time leads to asymmetric temperature envelopes. Yearly variation in vertical flow velocities, or temperature variations of the recharge water, also results in asymmetric temperature envelopes. Interpretation of these asymmetric envelopes leads to important differences between derived and actual mean vertical flow velocities. Citation Vandenbohede, A. &; Lebbe, L. (2010) Recharge assessment by means of vertical temperature profiles: analysis of possible influences. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 792–804. 相似文献
13.
Abstract Mediterranean rivers are characterized by the irregularity of flow, harsh hydrological fluctuations and a profound transformation as the result of human activity. In this study, we investigate the streamflow response of a Mediterranean temporary river in which different groundwater, agriculture and urban contributions play an important role. Streamflow was measured at three nested gauging stations installed along Na Borges River, a lowland agricultural catchment (319 km2) on the island of Mallorca. Based on two hydrological years (2004/05 and 2005/06), potential evapotranspiration and surface water–groundwater interaction generated a succession of four different hydrological periods playing an important role in baseflow dynamics. The runoff coefficients were very low (<5%). At the event scale, groundwater also controlled runoff response, being very different according to hydrogeology, antecedent conditions and human impacts. During dry seasons, wastewater and karstic spring discharges maintain an influent regime into some streams. As a result, intense rainstorms in late summer generated water volumes over the impervious urban surfaces involved, with the result that quickflow was significant because the hydrological pathways were active. 相似文献
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15.
An alternative formulation is proposed for deriving depth-integrated equations for gravity-driven granular avalanches over a non-trivial topography with small curvature. The coordinate system of Bouchut and Westdickenberg (2004) is combined with the unified coordinate (UC) method, so that it can evolve in accordance with the entrainment–deposition processes at the basal surface. The resultant mass and momentum equations are formulated as a conservation system of the Cartesian components of the conservative physical variables. The motion of the flows is driven by the basal topography-induced pressure, pressure gradient, and resisted by the basal friction. The best benefit of this formulation is that it greatly simplifies the computation of the varying coordinate orientations. The features and advantages of this formulation are illustrated by the sliding-mass examples where we simulate the motion of a finite mass of granular material sliding down an inclined chute, running through a transition zone, and being deposited onto a horizontal plane. 相似文献
16.
We examine the implementation of a wave-breaking mechanism into a nonlinear potential flow solver. The success of the mechanism will be studied by implementing it into the numerical model HOS-NWT, which is a computationally efficient, open source code that solves for the free surface in a numerical wave tank using the high-order spectral (HOS) method. Once the breaking mechanism is validated, it can be implemented into other nonlinear potential flow models. To solve for wave-breaking, first a wave-breaking onset parameter is identified, and then a method for computing wave-breaking associated energy loss is determined. Wave-breaking onset is calculated using a breaking criteria introduced by Barthelemy et al. (J Fluid Mech https://arxiv.org/pdf/1508.06002.pdf, submitted) and validated with the experiments of Saket et al. (J Fluid Mech 811:642–658, 2017). Wave-breaking energy dissipation is calculated by adding a viscous diffusion term computed using an eddy viscosity parameter introduced by Tian et al. (Phys Fluids 20(6): 066,604, 2008, Phys Fluids 24(3), 2012), which is estimated based on the pre-breaking wave geometry. A set of two-dimensional experiments is conducted to validate the implemented wave breaking mechanism at a large scale. Breaking waves are generated by using traditional methods of evolution of focused waves and modulational instability, as well as irregular breaking waves with a range of primary frequencies, providing a wide range of breaking conditions to validate the solver. Furthermore, adjustments are made to the method of application and coefficient of the viscous diffusion term with negligible difference, supporting the robustness of the eddy viscosity parameter. The model is able to accurately predict surface elevation and corresponding frequency/amplitude spectrum, as well as energy dissipation when compared with the experimental measurements. This suggests the model is capable of calculating wave-breaking onset and energy dissipation successfully for a wide range of breaking conditions. The model is also able to successfully calculate the transfer of energy between frequencies due to wave focusing and wave breaking. This study is limited to unidirectional waves but provides a valuable basis for future application of the wave-breaking model to a multidirectional wave field. By including parameters for removing energy due to wave-breaking into a nonlinear potential flow solver, the risk of developing numerical instabilities due to an overturning wave is decreased, thereby increasing the application range of the model, including calculating more extreme sea states. A computationally efficient and accurate model for the generation of a nonlinear random wave field is useful for predicting the dynamic response of offshore vessels and marine renewable energy devices, predicting loads on marine structures, and in the study of open ocean wave generation and propagation in a realistic environment. 相似文献
17.
Abstract A cluster point process model is considered for the analysis of fine-scale rainfall time series. The model is based on three Poisson processes. The first is a Poisson process of storm origins, where each storm has a random (exponential) lifetime. The second is a Poisson process of cell origins that occur during the storm lifetime, terminating when the storm finishes. Each cell has a random lifetime that follows an exponential distribution (or terminates when the storm terminates, whichever occurs first). During cell lifetimes, a third Poisson process of instantaneous pulses occurs. The model is essentially an extension of the well-known Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model, with the rectangular profiles replaced with a Poisson process of instantaneous pulse depths to ensure more realistic rainfall profiles for fine-scale series. Model equations, derived in Cowpertwait et al. (2007), are used to fit different sets of properties to a 60 year record of 5-min data taken from Kelburn, New Zealand. As in the previous work, two superposed processes are used to account for two main and distinct precipitation types (convective and stratiform). By treating the within-cell pulses as dependent random variables, it is found, by simulation, that improved fits to extreme values and the proportion of dry intervals are obtained. Citation Cowpertwait, P. S. P., Xie, G., Isham, V., Onof, C. & Walsh, D. C. I. (2011) A fine-scale point process model of rainfall with dependent pulse depths within cells. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1110–1117. 相似文献
18.
The modification of spectral analysis especially intended for studying the disturbing functions of the atmosphere and ocean, as well as the observed polar motion (Wiener–Liouville spectrum), is used. The time series of the atmospheric disturbing functions obtained by the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) for the period from January 1, 1980 to June 20, 2014 (http://www.iers.org/.cs1?pid=43-1100116) are analyzed. It is shown that the baric disturbing function contains a regular mode with a period of ~16 months; the contribution of this mode in the polar motion is estimated. 相似文献
19.
John T. Van Stan II 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1061-1066
Abstract This technical note presents an instrumental method for the precise and timely installation of mechanical displacement sensors to investigate stem compression and relaxation associated with whole-tree rainwater loading and evaporation, respectively. We developed this procedure in response to the conclusions of Friesen et al. (2008), which called for the development of a precision mounting method for strain sensors on inherently-irregular trunk cross-sections so that rainfall interception, storage and evaporation may be distinguished from other strain-related phenomena. To supply precise sensor installation locations, high-resolution trunk profiles are generated using the LaserBarkTM automated tree measurement system. These scans are utilized to approximate the location of neutral bending axes. A routine then instructs a mobile rangefinder along the cross-section to optically indicate exact positioning for strain sensors over the bending axes. As imprecise sensor placement linearly increases error and diminishes signal-to-noise ratio, this automated installation routine is designed to remove significant distortions created by wind throw, off-centre loading within unevenly-distributed canopies, and human error that can lead to erroneous measurements of rainfall interception. Citation Van Stan, J. T. II, Jarvis, M. T., Levia, D. F. Jr & Friesen, J. (2011) Instrumental method for reducing error in compressionderived measurements of rainfall interception for individual trees. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 1061–1066. 相似文献
20.
Renata Rotondi Elisa Varini Carla Brambilla 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(7):1777-1796
According to the idea now widespread that macroseismic intensity should be expressed in probabilistic terms, a beta-binomial model has been proposed in the literature to estimate the probability of the intensity at site in the Bayesian framework and a clustering procedure has been adopted to define learning sets of macroseismic fields required to assign prior distributions of the model parameters. This article presents the results concerning the learning sets obtained by exploiting the large Italian macroseismic database DBM1I11 (Locati et al. in DBMI11, the 2011 version of the Italian Macroseismic Database, 2011. http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/DBMI11/) and discusses the problems related to their use in probabilistic modelling of the attenuation in seismic regions of the European countries partners of the UPStrat-MAFA project (2012), namely South Iceland, Portugal, SE Spain and Mt Etna volcano area (Italy). Anisotropy and the presence of offshore earthquakes are some of the problems faced. All the work has been carried out in the framework of the Task B of the project. 相似文献