首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 281 毫秒
1.
This article presents the latest generation of ground-motion models for the prediction of elastic response (pseudo-) spectral accelerations, as well as peak ground acceleration and velocity, derived using pan-European databases. The models present a number of novelties with respect to previous generations of models (Ambraseys et al. in Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 25:371–400, 1996, Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53, 2005; Bommer et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 1:171–203, 2003; Akkar and Bommer in Seismol Res Lett 81:195–206, 2010), namely: inclusion of a nonlinear site amplification function that is a function of $\text{ V }_\mathrm{S30}$ and reference peak ground acceleration on rock; extension of the magnitude range of applicability of the model down to $\text{ M }_\mathrm{w}$ 4; extension of the distance range of applicability out to 200 km; extension to shorter and longer periods (down to 0.01 s and up to 4 s); and consistent models for both point-source (epicentral, $\text{ R }_\mathrm{epi}$ , and hypocentral distance, $\text{ R }_\mathrm{hyp}$ ) and finite-fault (distance to the surface projection of the rupture, $\text{ R }_\mathrm{JB}$ ) distance metrics. In addition, data from more than 1.5 times as many earthquakes, compared to previous pan-European models, have been used, leading to regressions based on approximately twice as many records in total. The metadata of these records have been carefully compiled and reappraised in recent European projects. These improvements lead to more robust ground-motion prediction equations than have previously been published for shallow (focal depths less than 30 km) crustal earthquakes in Europe and the Middle East. We conclude with suggestions for the application of the equations to seismic hazard assessments in Europe and the Middle East within a logic-tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainty.  相似文献   

2.
We analyzed the within-earthquake correlation (peak ground acceleration PGA and velocity PGV) in Japan by taking into account local geological conditions. The database includes more than 23,700 records (K-NET and the KiK-net networks) from 84 events (M 4.2–7.4) occurring in 1999–2011. The correlation structure was investigated for residuals obtained using two recently developed ground-motion models for Japan. We have shown that the level of within-earthquake correlation may vary significantly depending on site classes, general geological conditions and earthquake magnitude. The results of the analysis are in general agreement with the findings obtained recently for Taiwan (Sokolov et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 10(5):1401–1429, 2012. doi:10.1007/s10518-012-9368-5). The high level of ground-motion correlation reflects the presence of a non-random component in the residuals that may be caused by the joint influence of surface soil and thick sediments, and this influence depends on the earthquake magnitude. Therefore, a single generalized model of within-earthquake correlation across geologically heterogeneous regions may not be adequate. The application of empirical correction factors, which may be a function of earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, site class, and average shear-wave velocity for a given station, allows for effective reduction in the level of within-earthquake correlation.  相似文献   

3.
One of the major challenges related with the current practice in seismic hazard studies is the adjustment of empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to different seismological environments. We believe that the key to accommodating differences in regional seismological attributes of a ground motion model lies in the Fourier spectrum. In the present study, we attempt to explore a new approach for the development of response spectral GMPEs, which is fully consistent with linear system theory when it comes to adjustment issues. This approach consists of developing empirical prediction equations for Fourier spectra and for a particular duration estimate of ground motion which is tuned to optimize the fit between response spectra obtained through the random vibration theory framework and the classical way. The presented analysis for the development of GMPEs is performed on the recently compiled reference database for seismic ground motion in Europe (RESORCE-2012). Although, the main motivation for the presented approach is the adjustability and the use of the corresponding model to generate data driven host-to-target conversions, even as a standalone response spectral model it compares reasonably well with the GMPEs of Ambraseys et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53, 2005), Akkar and Bommer (Seismol Res Lett 81(2):195–206, 2010) and Akkar and Cagnan (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100(6):2978–2995, 2010).  相似文献   

4.
The 23 October 2011 Van (Mw 7.1) earthquake that occurred in Eastern Turkey resulted in heavy damage particularly in the city of Van and town of Ercis. This paper presents ground motion simulations of Van earthquake by using stochastic finite fault method (EXSIM, Motazedian and Atkinson in Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005; Boore in Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3202–3216, 2009) that provides a simple and effective tool to generate high frequency strong motion. The input parameters related to source, path, and site effects are calibrated on the basis of minimizing the error functions between simulations and observations both in time and frequency domain. Validated model parameters are used to produce synthetics in regional extent with the aim of understanding the level and distribution of the ground shaking particularly in the near fault region where no recordings are available within the 40 km of the epicenter. This paper evaluates the effect of two different slip models on ground motion intensity measures over the area of interest and addresses the variability in the near fault region associated with the source effect. The synthetics are compared with the corresponding estimations of ground motion prediction equations by Boore and Atkinson (Earthq Spectra 24:99–138, 2008), Akkar and Bommer (Seismol Res Lett 81:195–206, 2010) and Akkar and Cagnan (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100:2978–2995, 2010). Our results indicate that despite the limitation of the method for incorporating the directivity effect and inadequate representation of the soil conditions at the individual stations, a satisfactory match between synthetics and observations are obtained both in time and frequency domain. Spatial distributions of the synthetics in regional level also show reasonable correlation with ground motion prediction equations and damage observations.  相似文献   

5.
On the selection of GMPEs for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
The Vrancea subcrustal seismic source is characterized by large magnitude ( $M_{W} \ge 7$ ) intermediate-depth earthquakes that occur two or three times during a century on average. In this study several procedures are used to grade four candidate ground motion prediction equations proposed for Vrancea source in the SHARE project. In the work of Delavaud et al. (J Seismol 16(3):451–473, 2012) four ground motion prediction models developed for subduction zones (Zhao et al. in Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913, 2006; Atkinson and Boore in Bull Seism Soc Am 93(4):1703–1729, 2003; Youngs et al. in Seism Res Lett 68(1):58–73, 1997; Lin and Lee in Bull Seism Soc Am 98(1):220–240, 2008) are suggested as suitable for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source. The paper presents the appropriateness analysis of the four suggested ground motion prediction equations done using a dataset of 109 triaxial accelerograms recorded during seven Vrancea seismic events with moment magnitude $M_{W}$ between 5.4 and 7.4, occurred in the past 35 years. The strong ground motions were recorded in Romania, as well as in Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova and Serbia. Based on the ground motion dataset several goodness-of-fit measures are used in order to quantify how well the selected models match with the recorded data. The compatibility of the four ground motion prediction models with respect to magnitude scaling and distance scaling implied by strong ground motion dataset is investigated as well. The analyses show that the Youngs et al. (Seism Res Lett 68(1):58–73, 1997) and Zhao et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913, 2006) ground motion prediction models have a better fit with the data and can be candidate models for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment.  相似文献   

6.
This paper describes a new method for the evaluation of the static eccentricity $e_{s}$ and the ratio $\Omega _{\uptheta } $ of uncoupled torsional to lateral frequencies in real multi-storey buildings. The above-mentioned parameters greatly affect the lateral-to-torsional coupling of the response of asymmetric systems and thus are of paramount importance in the assessment of the in-plan irregularity of buildings. The proposed method, which is a generalization of that suggested by Calderoni et al. (Earthq Spectra 18(2):219–231, 2002), allows the calculation of the static eccentricity $e_{s}$ and the ratio $\Omega _{\uptheta } $ from the structural response to arbitrary distributions of forces and torsional couples. The effectiveness of the method is validated on some regularly and non-regularly asymmetric buildings characterised by different in-plan irregularity. The analyses demonstrate that the results of the method are rigorous in the case of regularly asymmetric systems and only slightly depend upon the heightwise distribution of the forces in the case of non-regularly asymmetric systems. Finally, the values of the static eccentricity $e_{s}$ and the ratio $\Omega _{\uptheta } $ resulting from the proposed method are compared to those obtained by means of the procedure suggested by Makarios and Anastassiadis in (Struct Des Tall Spec Build 7(1):33–55, 1998a; Struct Des Tall Spec Build 7(1):57–71, 1998b) .  相似文献   

7.
Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are considered to be an effective, pragmatic, and viable tool for seismic risk reduction in cities. While standard EEWS approaches focus on the real-time estimation of an earthquake’s location and magnitude, innovative developments in EEWS include the capacity for the rapid assessment of damage. Clearly, for all public authorities that are engaged in coordinating emergency activities during and soon after earthquakes, real-time information about the potential damage distribution within a city is invaluable. In this work, we present a first attempt to design an early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment. In particular, the procedure uses typical real-time information (i.e., P-wave arrival times and early waveforms) derived from a regional seismic network for locating and evaluating the size of an earthquake, information which in turn is exploited for extracting a risk map representing the potential distribution of damage from a dataset of predicted scenarios compiled for the target city. A feasibility study of the procedure is presented for the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which is surrounded by the Kyrgyz seismic network by mimicking the ground motion associated with two historical events that occurred close to Bishkek, namely the 1911 Kemin (M?=?8.2; ±0.2) and the 1885 Belovodsk (M?=?6.9; ±0.5) earthquakes. Various methodologies from previous studies were considered when planning the implementation of the early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment: the Satriano et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98(3):1482–1494, 2008) approach to real-time earthquake location; the Caprio et al. (Geophys Res Lett 38:L02301, 2011) approach for estimating moment magnitude in real time; the EXSIM method for ground motion simulation (Motazedian and Atkinson, Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005); the Sokolov (Earthquake Spectra 161: 679–694, 2002) approach for estimating intensity from Fourier amplitude spectra; and the Tyagunov et al. (Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 6:573–586, 2006) approach for risk computation. Innovatively, all these methods are jointly applied to assess in real time the seismic risk of a particular target site, namely the city of Bishkek. Finally, the site amplification and vulnerability datasets considered in the proposed methodology are taken from previous studies, i.e., Parolai et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 2010) and Bindi et al. (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, 2011), respectively.  相似文献   

8.
It has been two decades since the last comprehensive standard model of ambient earth noise was published Peterson (Observations and modelling of seismic background noise, US Geological Survey, open-file report 93–322, 1993). The PETERSON model was updated by analyzing the absolute quietest conditions for stations within the GSN (Berger et al. in J Geophys Res 109, 2005; Mcnamara and Buland in Bull Seism Soc Am 94:1517–1527, 2004; Ringler et al. in Seismol Res Lett 81(4) doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.4.605, 2010). Unfortunately, both the original model and the updated models did not include any deployed station in North Africa and Middle East, which reflects the noise levels within the desert environment of those regions. In this study, a survey was conducted to create a new seismic noise model from very broadband stations which recently deployed in North Africa. For this purpose, 1 year of continuous recording of seismic noise data of the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) was analyzed in order to create a new noise model. Seasonal and diurnal variations in noise spectra were recorded at each station. Moreover, we constructed a new noise model for each individual station. Finally, we obtained a new cumulative noise model for all the stations. We compared the new high-noise model (EHNM) and new low-noise model (ELNM) with both the high-noise model (NHNM) and low-noise model (NLNM) of Peterson (Observations and modelling of seismic background noise, US Geological Survey, open-file report 93–322, 1993). The obtained noise levels are considerably lower than low-noise model of Peterson (Observations and modelling of seismic background noise, US Geological Survey, open-file report 93–322, 1993) at ultra long period band (ULP band), but they are still below the high-noise model of Peterson (Observations and modelling of seismic background noise, US Geological Survey, open-file report 93–322, 1993). The results of this study could be considered as a first step to create permanent seismic noise models for North Africa and Middle East regions.  相似文献   

9.
We tested attenuation relations obtained for different regions of the world to verify their suitability to predict strong-motion data recorded by Medellín and Aburrá Valley Accelerographic Networks. We used as comparison criteria, the average of the difference between the observed and the predicted data as a function of epicenter distance and its standard deviation. We also used the approach developed by Sherbaum et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 94:2164–2185, 2004) that provides a method to evaluate the overall goodness-of-fit of ground-motion prediction equations. The predictive models selected use a generic focal depth. We found that this parameter has an important influence in the ground-motion predictions and must be taken into account as an independent variable. We also found important to characterize the local soil amplification to improve the attenuation relations. We found empirical relations for peak horizontal acceleration PGA and velocity PGV based on the Kamiyama and Yanagisawa (Soils Found 26:16–32, 1986) approach. $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} (PGA)=0.5886M_L -1.0902\log _{10}(R)-0.0035H+C_{st}\pm 0.\text{29} \end{aligned}$$ $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} (PGV)=0.7255M_L -1.8812\log _{10}(R)-0.0016H+C_{st}\pm 0.36 \end{aligned}$$ where PGA is measured in cm/s $^{2}$ and PGV in cm/s, $M_{L}$ is local magnitude in the range 2.8–6.5, $R$ is epicentral distance up to 290 km, $H$ is focal depth in km and $C_{st}$ is a coefficient that accounts for the site response due to soil conditions of each recording station. The introduction of focal depth and local site conditions as independent variables, minimize the residuals and the dispersion of the predicted data. We conclude that $H$ and $C_{st}$ are sensitive parameters, having a strong influence on the strong-motion predictions. Using the same functional form, we also propose an empirical relation for the root mean square acceleration a $_\mathrm{rms}$ : $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} \left( {a_{rms} } \right)=0.4797M_L -1.1665\log _{10} (R)-0.00201H+C_{st}\pm 0.40 \end{aligned}$$ where a $_\mathrm{rms}$ is measured in cm/s $^{2}$ , from the S-wave arrival and using a window length equal to the rupture duration. The other variables are the same as those for PGA and PGV. The site correction coefficients $C_{st}$ found for PGA, PGV and a $_\mathrm{rms}$ show a similar trend indicating a good correlation with the soil conditions of the recording sites.  相似文献   

10.
Fragility curves for risk-targeted seismic design maps   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Seismic design using maps based on “risk-targeting” would lead to an annual probability of attaining or exceeding a certain damage state that is uniform over an entire territory. These maps are based on convolving seismic hazard curves from a standard probabilistic analysis with the derivative of fragility curves expressing the chance for a code-designed structure to attain or exceed a certain damage state given a level of input motion, e.g. peak ground acceleration (PGA). There are few published fragility curves for structures respecting the Eurocodes (ECs, principally EC8 for seismic design) that can be used for the development of risk-targeted design maps for Europe. In this article a set of fragility curves for a regular three-storey reinforced-concrete building designed using EC2 and EC8 for medium ductility and increasing levels of design acceleration \((\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g})\) is developed. These curves show that structures designed using EC8 against PGAs up to about 1 m/s \(^{2}\) have similar fragilities to those that respect only EC2 (although this conclusion may not hold for irregular buildings, other geometries or materials). From these curves, the probability of yielding for a structure subjected to a PGA equal to \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}\) varies between 0.14 ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=0.7\) m/s \(^{2})\) and 0.85 ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=3\) m/s \(^{2})\) whereas the probability of collapse for a structure subjected to a PGA equal to \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}\) varies between 1.7 \(\times 10^{-7}\) ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=0.7\) m/s \(^{2})\) and 1.0 \(\times 10^{-5}\) ( \(\hbox {a}_\mathrm{g}=3\) m/s \(^{2})\) .  相似文献   

11.
We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.  相似文献   

12.
In this paper we describe a stable automatic method to estimate in real time the seismic moment, moment magnitude and corner frequency of events recorded by a network comprising broad-band and accelerometer sensors. The procedure produces reliable results even for small-magnitude events $\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{W}}\approx 3$ . The real-time data arise from both the Transfrontier network at the Alps-Dinarides junction and from the Italian National Accelerometric Network (RAN). The data is pre-processed and the S-wave train identified through the application of an automatic method, which estimates the arrival times based on the hypocenter location, recording site and regional velocity model. The transverse component of motion is used to minimize conversion effects. The source spectrum is obtained by correcting the signals for geometrical spreading and intrinsic attenuation. Source spectra for both velocity and displacement are computed and, following Andrews (1986), the seismic moment and the first estimate of the corner frequency, $f_{0}$ , derived. The procedure is validated using the recordings of some recent moderate earthquakes (Carnia 2002; Bovec 2004; Parma 2008; Aquila 2009; Macerata 2009; Emilia 2012) and the recordings of some minor events in the SE Alps area for which independent seismic moment and moment magnitude estimates are available. The results obtained with a dataset of 843 events recorded by the Transfrontier and RAN networks show that the procedure is reliable and robust for events with $\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{W}}\ge 3$ . The estimates of $f_{0}$ are less reliable. The results show a scatter, principally for small events with $\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{W}}\le 3$ , probably due to site effects and inaccurate locations.  相似文献   

13.
We applied the maximum likelihood method produced by Kijko and Sellevoll (Bull Seismol Soc Am 79:645–654, 1989; Bull Seismol Soc Am 82:120–134, 1992) to study the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for the different regions in western Anatolia (WA). Since the historical earthquake data are very important for examining regional earthquake hazard parameters, a procedure that allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two has been applied in this study. By using this method, we estimated the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude $ \hat{M}_{\max } , $ the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known $ \hat{b} $ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The whole examined area is divided into 15 different seismic regions based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The probabilities, return periods of earthquakes with a magnitude M?≥?m and the relative earthquake hazard level (defined as the index K) are also evaluated for each seismic region. Each of the computed earthquake hazard parameters is mapped on the different seismic regions to represent regional variation of these parameters. Furthermore, the investigated regions are classified into different seismic hazard level groups considering the K index. According to these maps and the classification of seismic hazard, the most seismically active regions in WA are 1, 8, 10 and 12 related to the Alia?a Fault and the Büyük Menderes Graben, Aegean Arc and Aegean Islands.  相似文献   

14.
A systematic analysis was conducted of the different variability components that affect the prediction of $\text{ log }_{10}(PSA)$ (i.e., Pseudo-Spectral Acceleration) ordinates on (mostly) deep sedimentary soil sites using a sizable set of strong motion data recorded in the strong earthquake sequences of 2010 and 2012 in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. Following recent, well established approaches of residual analysis of ground motion predictions, as well as recent GMPEs based on a global dataset, it was found that the event-corrected single-station standard deviation (“sigma”) is strongly decreased, for all selected stations, with respect to the uncorrected sigma. Likewise, the event-corrected intraevent sigma estimated for the entire dataset is significantly reduced compared to the standard deviation associated to ground motion prediction models, i.e. the “ergodic” sigma, for all spectral periods. The event-corrected sigma values for the present dataset are surprisingly consistent with those recently derived using KiK-Net strong motion data from Japan and those by Boore and Atkinson (Earthq Spectra 34(1):99–138, 2008) GMPE, and remain fairly constant with respect to the spectral period at about $0.15\sim 0.2$ . An interpretation was provided of the physical meaning of the site correction term ( ${\delta }S2S)_{s}$ indicating a plausible correlation with prevailing geological conditions in the site area.  相似文献   

15.
Traditional nonlinear static methods, e.g. the original version of the N2 method implemented in Eurocode 8, are not always effective in the assessment of asymmetric structures because of the errors committed in the evaluation of the torsional response. To overcome this shortcoming, two methods have recently been suggested by Kreslin and Fajfar (Bull Earthquake Eng 10(2):695–715, 2012) and Bosco et al. (Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 41:1751–1773, 2012). In particular, the method proposed by Kreslin and Fajfar adjusts the results of the nonlinear static analysis by means of those of a standard modal response spectrum analysis. In the method proposed by Bosco et al., the researchers suggested the use of two nonlinear static analyses characterized by lateral forces applied to different points of the deck. In this paper, the two improved nonlinear static methods and the original N2 method are applied to predict the maximum dynamic response of single- and multi-storey systems subjected to artificial and recorded accelerograms. The results highlight that the improved nonlinear static methods provide estimates which are more accurate than those of the original N2 method. Further, the comparison of the results identifies the range of the structural properties within which the original N2 method is still reliable and the range within which one of the two improved methods should be preferred.  相似文献   

16.
Strong-motion data consisting of peak ground acceleration and velocity and 5 % damped response spectra are presented for 46 earthquakes of the Emilia seismic sequence which occurred in the Po Plain (northern Italy) in 2012. The data were recorded by the OGS temporary network installed close to the town of Ferrara following the main shock of May 20, 2012. Ground-motion peak parameters and spectral responses are compared with the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) of Bindi et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 9:1899–1920, 2011) for soft soils and reverse faults. Peak ground accelerations are in general in good agreement with those predicted by GMPE, while predicted peak ground velocities underestimate the observed data, especially for stronger events at more distant stations. The response spectra follow the trend in peak ground velocities, with observed values higher than predicted values at longer periods. This behavior has been interpreted as a site effect due to the deep soft alluvial cover of the Po Plain, which promotes ground motion characterized by a large low-frequency spectral content that is not yet well modeled by the Italian GMPE. A peculiar behavior was shown by the event occurring on June 6, 04:08:33 UTC, \(\hbox {M}=4.5\) , located at the eastern edge of the Po Plain, which produced peak ground accelerations exceeding three times the values estimated by attenuation laws. Such a great discrepancy could be related to post-critically reflected S-waves and multiples from the Moho (SmSM).  相似文献   

17.
In regions that undergo low deformation rates, as is the case for metropolitan France (i.e. the part of France in Europe), the use of historical seismicity, in addition to instrumental data, is necessary when dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This paper presents the strategy adopted to develop a parametric earthquake catalogue using moment magnitude Mw, as the reference magnitude scale to cover both instrumental and historical periods for metropolitan France. Work performed within the framework of the SiHex (SIsmicité de l’HEXagone) (Cara et al. Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3–19, 2015. doi: 10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3) and SIGMA (SeIsmic Ground Motion Assessment; EDF-CEA-AREVA-ENEL) projects, respectively on instrumental and historical earthquakes, have been combined to produce the French seismic CATalogue, version 2017 (FCAT-17). The SiHex catalogue is composed of ~40,000 natural earthquakes, for which the hypocentral location and Mw magnitude are given. In the frame of the SIGMA research program, an integrated study has been realized on historical seismicity from intensity prediction equations (IPE) calibration in Mw detailed in Baumont et al. (submitted) companion paper to their application to earthquakes of the SISFRANCE macroseismic database (BRGM, EDF, IRSN), through a dedicated strategy developed by Traversa et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10518-017-0178-7) companion paper, to compute their Mw magnitude and depth. Macroseismic data and epicentral location and intensity used both in IPE calibration and inversion process, are those of SISFRANCE without any revision. The inversion process allows the main macroseismic field specificities reported by SISFRANCE to be taken into account with an exploration tree approach. It also allows capturing the epistemic uncertainties associated with macroseismic data and to IPEs selection. For events that exhibit a poorly constrained macroseismic field (mainly old, cross border or off-shore earthquakes), joint inversion of Mw and depth is not possible, and depth needs to be fixed to calculate Mw. Regional a priori depths have been defined for this purpose based on analysis of earthquakes with a well constrained macroseismic field where joint inversion of Mw and depth is possible. As a result, 27% of SISFRANCE earthquake seismological parameters have been jointly inverted and for the other 73% Mw has been calculated assuming a priori depths. The FCAT-17 catalogue is composed of the SIGMA historical parametric catalogue (magnitude range between 3.5 up to 7.0), covering from AD463 to 1965, and of the SiHex instrumental one, extending from 1965 to 2009. Historical part of the catalogue results from an automatic inversion of SISFRANCE data. A quality index is estimated for each historical earthquake according to the way the events are processed. All magnitudes are given in Mw which makes this catalogue directly usable as an input for probabilistic or deterministic seismic hazard studies. Uncertainties on magnitudes and depths are provided for historical earthquakes following calculation scheme presented in Traversa et al. (2017). Uncertainties on magnitudes for instrumental events are from Cara et al. (J Seismol 21:551–565, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10950-016-9617-1).  相似文献   

18.
In the framework of the SIGMA project, a study was launched to develop a parametric earthquake catalog for the historical period, covering the metropolitan territory and calibrated in Mw. A set of candidate calibration events was selected corresponding to earthquakes felt over a part of the French metropolitan territory, which are fairly well documented both in terms of macroseismic intensity distributions (SisFrance BRGM-EDF-IRSN) and magnitude estimates. The detailed analysis of the macroseismic data led us to retain only 30 events out of 65 with Mw ranging from 3.6 to 5.8. In order to supplement the dataset with data from larger magnitude events, Italian earthquakes were also considered (11 events posterior to 1900 with Mw?≥?6.0 out of 15 in total), using both the DBMI11 macroseismic database (Locati et al. in Seismol Resour Lett 85(3):727–734, 2014) and the parametric information from the CPTI11 (Rovida et al. in CPTI11, la versione 2011 del Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica et Vulcanologia, Milano, Bologna, 2011.  https://doi.org/10.6092/ingv.it-cpti11). To avoid introducing bias related to the differences in terms of intensity scales (MSK vs. MCS), only intensities smaller than or equal to VII were considered (Traversa et al. in On the use of cross-border macroseismic data to improve the estimation of past earthquakes seismological parameters, 2014). Mw and depth metadata were defined according to the Si-Hex catalogue (Cara et al. in Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3–19, 2015.  https://doi.org/10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3), published information, and to the specific worked conducted within SIGMA related to early instrumental recordings (Benjumea et al. in Study of instrumented earthquakes that occurred during the first part of the 20th century (1905–1962), 2015). For the depth estimates, we also performed a macroseismic analysis to evaluate the range of plausible estimates and check the consistency of the solutions. Uncertainties on the metadata related to the calibration earthquakes were evaluated using the range of available alternative estimates. The intensity attenuation models were developed using a one-step maximum likelihood scheme. Several mathematical formulations and sub-datasets were considered to evaluate the robustness of the results (similarly to Baumont and Scotti in Accounting for data and modeling uncertainties in empirical macroseismic predictive equations (EMPEs). Towards “European” EMPEs based on SISFRANCE, DBMI, ECOS macroseismic database, 2008). In particular, as the region of interest may be characterized by significant laterally varying attenuation properties (Bakun and Scotti in Geophys J Int 164:596–610, 2006; Gasperini in Bull Seismol Soc Am 91:826–841, 2001), we introduced regional attenuation terms to account for this variability. Two zonation schemes were tested, one at the national scale (France/Italy), another at the regional scale based on the studies of Mayor et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0124-8) for France and Gasperini (2001) for Italy. Between and within event residuals were analyzed in detail to identify the best models, that is, the ones associated with the best misfit and most limited residual trends with intensity and distance. This analysis led us to select four sets of models for which no significant trend in the between- and within-event residuals is detected. These models are considered to be valid over a wide range of Mw covering?~?3.5–7.0.  相似文献   

19.
Rapid magnitude estimate procedures represent a crucial part of proposed earthquake early warning systems. Most of these estimates are focused on the first part of the P-wave train, the earlier and less destructive part of the ground motion that follows an earthquake. Allen and Kanamori (Science 300:786–789, 2003) proposed to use the predominant period of the P-wave to determine the magnitude of a large earthquake at local distance and Olivieri et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 185:74–81, 2008) calibrated a specific relation for the Italian region. The Mw 6.3 earthquake hit Central Italy on April 6, 2009 and the largest aftershocks provide a useful dataset to validate the proposed relation and discuss the risks connected to the extrapolation of magnitude relations with a poor dataset of large earthquake waveforms. A large discrepancy between local magnitude (ML) estimated by means of $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ evaluation and standard ML (6.8 ± 1.5 vs. 5.9 ± 0.4) suggests using caution when ML vs. $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ calibrations do not include a relevant dataset of large earthquakes. Effects from large residuals could be mitigated or removed introducing selection rules on τ p function, by regionalizing the ML vs. $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ function in the presence of significant tectonic or geological heterogeneity, and using probabilistic and evolutionary methods.  相似文献   

20.
In the last two decades, south-central Europe and the Eastern Alps have been widely explored by many seismic refraction experiments (e.g., CELEBRATION 2000, ALP 2002, SUDETES 2003). Although quite detailed images are available along linear profiles, a comprehensive, three-dimensional crustal model of the region is still missing. This limitation makes this region a weak spot in continental-wide comprehensive representations of crustal structure. To improve on this situation, we select and collect 37 published active-source seismic lines in this region. After geo-referencing each line, we sample them along vertical profiles—every 50?km or less along the line—and derive P-wave velocities in a stack of homogeneous layers (separated by discontinuities: depth of crystalline basement, top of lower crust, and Moho). We finally merge the information using geostatistical methods, and infer S-wave velocity and density using empirical scaling relations. We present here the resulting crustal model for a region encompassing the Eastern Alps, Dinarides, Pannonian basin, Western Carpathians and Bohemian Massif, covering the region within $45^{\circ}\text{--}51^{\circ}\hbox{N}$ and $11^{\circ} \text{--} 22^{\circ}\hbox{E}$ with a resolution of $0.2^{\circ} \times 0.2^{\circ}.$ We are also able to extend and update the map of Moho depth in a wider region within $35^{\circ}\text{--}51^{\circ}\hbox{N}$ and $12^{\circ}\text{--}45^{\circ}\hbox{E},$ gathering Moho values from the collected seismic lines, other published dataset and using the European plate reference EPcrust as a background. All the digitized profiles and the resulting model are available online.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号