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1.
Among the most puzzling questions in climate change is that of solar-climate variability, which has attracted the attention of scientists for more than two centuries. Until recently, even the existence of solar-climate variability has been controversial—perhaps because the observations had largely involved correlations between climate and the sunspot cycle that had persisted for only a few decades. Over the last few years, however, diverse reconstructions of past climate change have revealed clear associations with cosmic ray variations recorded in cosmogenic isotope archives, providing persuasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate. However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is established. Although this remains a mystery, observations suggest that cloud cover may be influenced by cosmic rays, which are modulated by the solar wind and, on longer time scales, by the geomagnetic field and by the galactic environment of Earth. Two different classes of microphysical mechanisms have been proposed to connect cosmic rays with clouds: firstly, an influence of cosmic rays on the production of cloud condensation nuclei and, secondly, an influence of cosmic rays on the global electrical circuit in the atmosphere and, in turn, on ice nucleation and other cloud microphysical processes. Considerable progress on understanding ion–aerosol–cloud processes has been made in recent years, and the results are suggestive of a physically-plausible link between cosmic rays, clouds and climate. However, a concerted effort is now required to carry out definitive laboratory measurements of the fundamental physical and chemical processes involved, and to evaluate their climatic significance with dedicated field observations and modelling studies.  相似文献   

2.
Recent analysis of monthly mean cloud data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project uncovered a strong correlation between low cloud and the cosmic ray flux for extensive regions of the Earth. Additional data have been recently released covering the period up to September 2001 with which we have made a new study of the geographical variation of the correlation between low cloud and predicted ionization level from cosmic rays at an altitude of 2 km. When analysed globally, we find that the correlations do not correspond to the latitude variation of cosmic ray flux and they are not field significant. Nonetheless they appear to be marginally field significant over broad latitude and longitude bands with a peak positive correlation at 50 degrees North and South and a tendency to negative correlation at lower latitudes. The correlation is strongest over the North and South Atlantic. Several of these features are consistent with the predictions of the electroscavenging process.We use a simple model to calculate the climatic impact should the correlation be confirmed. We show that, under the most favorable conditions, a reduction in low cloud cover since the late 19th century, combined with the direct forcing by solar irradiance can explain a significant part of the global warming over the past century, but not all. However, this computation assumes that there is no feedback or changes in cloud at other levels.  相似文献   

3.
Various aspects of the connection between cloud cover (CC) and cosmic rays (CR) are analyzed. Most features of this connection viz. an altitude dependence of the absolute values of CC and CR intensity, no evidence for the correlation between the ionization of the atmosphere and cloudiness, the absence of correlations in short-term low cloud cover (LCC) and CR variations indicate that there is no direct causal connection between LCC and CR in spite of the evident long-term correlation between them. However, these arguments are indirect. If only some part of the LCC is connected and varies with CR, then its value, obtained from the joint analysis of their 11-year variations and averaged over the Globe, should be most likely less than 20%.The most significant argument against causal connection of CR and LCC is the anticorrelation between LCC and the medium cloud cover (MCC). The scenario of the parallel influence of the solar activity on the Global temperature and CC from one side and CR from the other side, which can lead to the observed correlations, is discussed and advocated.  相似文献   

4.
Several authors have suggested that a link exists between the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and cloudiness. Here we review the evidence for such a connection from studies of cloud factors using both satellite and ground-based data. In particular, we search for evidence for the low cloud decrease predicted by the rising levels of solar activity and the low cloud-cosmic ray flux correlation indicated by satellite data. Sunshine and synoptic cloud records both indicate that the global total cloud cover has increased during the past century. This increase in total cloud cover argues against a dominating role by solar activity (via GCR) over cloud formation on centennial time scales. Either the predicted low cloud decrease has not occurred or the medium-high level cloud has increased to a greater extent than low cloud has decreased.As there is no accurate long term data available on low cloud behaviour during the last century, we are not able to totally dismiss the link between GCR and cloudiness, but we list a number of arguments for and against the proposed cosmic ray-cloud connection.  相似文献   

5.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The causes of a sharp increase in the radiocarbon content in the Earth’s atmosphere for periods with abnormally low solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs)...  相似文献   

6.
The solar wind modulates the flux of galactic cosmic rays impinging on Earth inversely with solar activity. Cosmic ray ionisation is the major source of air's electrical conductivity over the oceans and well above the continents. Differential solar modulation of the cosmic ray energy spectrum modifies the cosmic ray ionisation at different latitudes, varying the total atmospheric columnar conductance. This redistributes current flow in the global atmospheric electrical circuit, including the local vertical current density and the related surface potential gradient. Surface vertical current density and potential gradient measurements made independently at Lerwick Observatory, Shetland, from 1978 to 1985 are compared with modelled changes in cosmic ray ionisation arising from solar activity changes. Both the lower troposphere atmospheric electricity quantities are significantly increased at cosmic ray maximum (solar minimum), with a proportional change greater than that of the cosmic ray change.  相似文献   

7.
The paper deals with the relation of long-term variations of 10 GV galactic cosmic rays (GCR) to the global solar magnetic field and solar wind parameters. This study continues previous works, where the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and other solar-heliospheric parameters are successfully used to describe long-term variations of cosmic rays in the past two solar cycles. The novelty of the present work is the use of the HCS tilt and other parameters reconstructed from Hα observations of filaments for the period when direct global solar magnetic field observations were unavailable. Thus, we could extend the GCR simulation interval back to 1953. The analysis of data for 1953–1999 revealed a good correlation (the correlation coefficient >0.88) between the solar-heliospheric parameters and GCR in different cycles of solar activity. Moreover, the approach applied makes it possible to describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of solar maxima, which could not be done before. This indicates both the adequacy of the model and the reliability of the reconstructed global solar magnetic field parameters.  相似文献   

8.
Direct and indirect data on variations in cosmic rays, solar activity, geomagnetic dipole moment, and climate from the present to 10–12ka ago (the Holocene Epoch), registered in different natural archives (tree rings, ice layers, etc.), have been analyzed. The concentration of cosmogenic isotopes, generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes and coming into the Earth archives, makes it possible to obtain valuable information about variations in a number of natural processes. The cosmogenic isotopes 14C in tree rings and 10Be in ice layers, as well as cosmic rays, are modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, and time variations in these concentrations gives information about past solar and geomagnetic activities. Since the characteristics of natural reservoirs with cosmogenic 14C and 10Be vary with climate changes, the concentrations of these isotopes also inform about climate changes in the past. A performed analysis indicates that cosmic ray flux variations are apparently the most effective natural factor of climate changes on a large time scale.  相似文献   

9.
The propagation of cosmic rays in the Earth??s atmosphere is simulated. Calculations of the omnidirectional differential flux of neutrons for different solar activity levels are illustrated. The solar activity effect on the production rate of cosmogenic radiocarbon by the nuclear-interacting and muon components of secondary cosmic radiation in polar ice is studied. It has been obtained that the 14C production rates in ice by the cosmic ray nuclear-interacting component are lower or higher than the average value by 30% during periods of solar activity maxima or minima, respectively. Calculations of the altitudinal dependence of the radiocarbon production rate in ice by the cosmic radiation components are illustrated.  相似文献   

10.
Variations in the cosmic-ray vector anisotropy observed on Earth are closely connected with the state of the near-Earth interplanetary medium. Hourly characteristics of vector anisotropy for the period 1957–2013, which were obtained by the global survey method from the data of the worldwide network of neutron monitors, make it possible to study the relationship between the cosmic-ray anisotropy and solar wind parameters. In the present work, we have studied the connection between the equatorial component of anisotropy of cosmic rays with a rigidity of 10 GV and the following parameters: velocity and density of the solar wind; density of the interplanetary magnetic field; and cosmic-ray density variations, in which the spatial gradient of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium is manifested. The characteristics of cosmic-ray anisotropy at various combinations of the interplanetary medium parameters are compared. The possibility of diagnosing the solar wind state from data on the cosmic-ray anisotropy is discussed.  相似文献   

11.
During the prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, an unusual behavior of the heliospheric characteristics and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near the Earth’s orbit were observed. The maximum of the current solar cycle 24 is lower than the previous one, and the decline in solar and, therefore, heliospheric activity is expected to continue in the next cycle. In these conditions, it is important for an understanding of the process of GCR modulation in the heliosphere, as well as for applied purposes (evaluation of the radiation safety of planned space flights, etc.), to estimate quantitatively the possible GCR characteristics near the Earth in the upcoming solar minimum (~2019–2020). Our estimation is based on the prediction of the heliospheric characteristics that are important for cosmic ray modulation, as well as on numeric calculations of GCR intensity. Additionally, we consider the distribution of the intensity and other GCR characteristics in the heliosphere and discuss the intercycle variations in the GCR characteristics that are integral for the whole heliosphere (total energy, mean energy, and charge).  相似文献   

12.
The atmospheric spectral transparency variations at 344 nm and 369 nm, averaged at eight Soviet stations between 69°N and 55°N, have been compared with sunspot numbers, or Wolf numbers (WN). The data were taken for the seasonal interval May-August during the period 1972 – 1989. Good negative correlations –0.76 and –0.82 have been found. The correlation coefficient between aerosol extinction at 344 nm and WN is equal to +0.75. Insignificant correlation is found for the transparency variations at 344 nm for stations situated to the south of latitude 50°. The best correlation with WN for both transparency and aerosol extinction at northern stations occurs for the shift of WN ahead of the optical parameters by 6 months. The connection of transparency with cosmic rays in Apatity is also examined. It displays a sign opposite to that for WN, smaller values of the correlation coefficient, and an improbable shift of transparency ahead of cosmic ray intensity. The relative changes of the transparency during a solar cycle can be evaluated at 10% in the ozone-free UVA region  相似文献   

13.
The relationships between the solar radiation input to the lower atmosphere at higher and middle latitudes and different phenomena related to solar activity have been studied at the network of actinometric stations of Russia. It was shown that the effects of galactic cosmic ray variations and solar flares on the half-yearly sums of global radiation strongly depend on latitude, with a negative correlation being observed in the high-latitudinal belt and a positive one at lower latitudes. The change of the correlation sign was found to take place at the latitude ∼57°. Auroral phenomena are likely to affect the radiation fluxes only in the high-latitude (auroral) region. The effects observed seem to be due to the latitudinal dependence of cloud cover variations associated with the helio/geophysical phenomena under study.  相似文献   

14.
提出了一个新的太阳宇宙线日 -地传输的数学模型 ,它包括日冕粒子分布源和行星际传播方程 .根据对太阳宇宙线耀斑黑子群特征和耀斑相的观测 ,提出了多极性黑子湮没的两阶段日冕传输过程和传输方程 ,得到了与观测特征一致的日冕粒子分布源 .日冕传输的第一阶段 ,和太阳耀斑脉冲相的时间相当 ,加速粒子通过扩散很快均匀地分布在耀斑区 ,形成所谓快传播区 .第二阶段 ,加速粒子向快传播区以外的日冕区扩散并向行星际空间逃逸 ,形成慢传播过程 .日冕传输模型的数值结果和日冕传输的观测特征符合 .太阳宇宙线的行星际传播采用三维正交均匀各向异性方程描述 .最后把模型的数值结果与 1 997年 9月 2 4日事件的SOHO（SolarandHeliosphericObservatory）观测资料作了比较 .能较好地符合 .  相似文献   

15.
Reconstructions of solar activity in the past epochs based on information on the past atmospheric content of the cosmogenic 14C isotope are nowadays actively discussed. The 14C isotope is generated in the atmosphere of the Earth under the influence of cosmic rays, and its concentration in annual tree rings carries information on the past solar activity. However, the concentration of this isotope in annual tree rings may also be influenced by climatic factors. In the present work, the possible correlation between variations in the 14C atmospheric content and in the Earth’s global temperature from the late 14th century to the middle of the 19th century is studied. It is shown that variations in global temperature may produce changes in the 14C atmospheric content and consequently have to be taken into account in reconstructions of the past solar activity.  相似文献   

16.
In this paper it is attempted to evaluate the relative importance of Lyman , EUV, solar X-rays and the secondary cosmic rays in producing ionization in the D-region below 90 km. The resulting ionization is studied in reference to its variations with the solar zenith angle and the solar activity. The currently available absorption and ionization cross-sections and the radiation fluxes have been used. The computed production rates and the currently accepted positive and negative ion reaction schemes are used to compute the positive and negative ion composition. The resulting electron density profiles are compared with the rocket and the theoretical profiles obtained by other workers. The agreement with the rocket results (Mechtly and Smith) appears to be satisfactory whereas the theoretical profiles given by others differ considerably below 70 and 80 km respectively for the solar minimum and maximum conditions.  相似文献   

17.
Impact of space energetic particles on the Earth’s atmosphere (a review)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The state of the Earth??s upper atmosphere is formed with the participation of impacts by energetic particles, such as galactic cosmic rays, protons of solar proton events, and precipitation of relativistic electrons. Changes in the neutral composition and the thermal and dynamical regime of the upper atmosphere during periods of disturbances caused by the influence of energetic particles are considered.  相似文献   

18.
One of the variants of the global survey method developed and used for many years at the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences is described. Data from the world network of neutron monitors for every hour from July 1957 to the present has been processed by this method. A consistent continuous series of hourly characteristics of variation of the density and vector anisotropy of cosmic rays with a rigidity of 10 GV is obtained. A database of Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic rays caused by large-scale disturbances of the interplanetary medium for more than half a century has been created based on this series. The capabilities of the database make it possible to perform a correlation analysis of various parameters of the space environment (characteristics of the Sun, solar wind, and interplanetary magnetic field) with the parameters of cosmic rays and to study their interrelationships in the solar–terrestrial space. The features of reception coefficients for different stations are considered, which allows the transition from variations according to ground measurements to variations of primary cosmic rays. The advantages and disadvantages of this variant of the global survey method and the opportunities for its development and improvement are assessed. The developed method makes it possible to minimize the problems of the network of neutron monitors and to make significant use of its advantages.  相似文献   

19.
Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) have been suggested as a possible contributory mechanism to cloud formation. If these are significant then, in addition to the similarity between long-term (years) changes in GCR and cloud cover, there should also be a similarity over shorter (days) time scales. This paper reports an analysis of changes in global cloud cover and GCR recorded at 3 hourly intervals over 22 years. There is a significant correlation between short-term changes in low cloud cover over northern and southern hemispheres, consistent with about 3% of the variation arising from common factors. However, GCR is not a major factor responsible for cloud cover changes. There is an association between short-term changes in low cloud cover and galactic cosmic radiation over a period of several days. This could arise if approximately 3% of the variations in cloud cover resulted from GCR.  相似文献   

20.
A reconstruction of data on ancient (to ～600 Ma ago) solar fluxes of protons and helium has been performed on the basis of isotopic investigations of helium and neon in lunar soil samples from columns delivered by the automatic stations Luna-16 and Luna-24 in 1970 and 1976. Recent investigations have shown the presence of long-term climate variations, which can be explained in the context of solar-terrestrial links. However, the “space” impact, simultaneously with the Sun’s influence on the Earth, takes place in the form of cosmic ray irradiation and as an influence on the Earth that is exerted by the flux of cosmic dust and meteorites (including the very large ones at the early stage of the Earth evolution). Therefore the existence of long-term variability of solar corpuscular fluxes may serve as direct evidence of the manifestation of solar-terrestrial links. The possibility of finding these links appears on the basis of the revealed variations of solar wind fluxes with an age from the contemporary level to the level of ～600 Ma ago.  相似文献   

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