共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
V. A. Bel’chikov A. Ya. Polunin Yu. A. Simonov A. V. Khristoforov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2013,38(2):119-125
Presented is a method of studying possible climate-driven changes of river runoff characteristics, according to which the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are used for computing the climate system impact, whereas the response of a watershed to given disturbance is estimated using the model of runoff formation in a river basin. The study is carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin. Estimates of possible changes (relative to the reference period) by the middle and late 21st century of such water regime characteristics as mean annual and maximum water discharge, as well as mean discharge values for the spring, summer-fall and winter seasons, are presented. 相似文献
2.
Applicability of the physically based models of runoff generation has been shown for the long-term ensemble forecasts of snowmelt runoff volumes and peak discharges. For the deterministic forecast, the ensembles of runoff hydrographs have been modeled by different combinations of measured and calculated indices of the basin conditions on the date of the forecast issue and by the mean weather for the lead time of the forecast. For the probabilistic forecast, the ensembles of runoff hydrographs have been modeled either by the ensembles of weather, which were observed for the lead-time periods of different years, or by the ensembles of weather generated by the Monte Carlo method with the help of a stochastic weather generator. The criteria have been suggested to compare the effectiveness of the probabilistic forecasts of snowmelt runoff characteristics and peak discharges and the different forecasting approaches have been compared. The study has been carried out for the Seim and Sosna river basins. 相似文献
3.
Probabilistic characterization of hydrological droughts 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
It is proposed to use the joint distribution of probabilities of minimum water discharges and the river runoff depth to characterize the severity and danger of durable low-flow periods. The copula theory is used to construct this distribution that enables to take account of differences in the types of one-dimensional probability distributions of initial variables and of the correlation between them. The studies were carried out for the vegetation periods using the data of the runoff depth measurements in Georghiu-Dej on the Don River in 1895–1980 and in Kirov on the Vyatka River in 1878–1980. The selection of copulas was based on comparing empirical and theoretical joint distributions of low-flow characteristics. It is demonstrated that the best results for the approximation of the joint probability distribution of low-flow characteristics are obtained from the Frank copula. Plotted are the dependences of low-flow frequency on the specified values of corresponding minimum water discharges and the river runoff depth during vegetation periods. Estimated are the probability and frequency of some most severe lowflow periods observed on the Don and Vyatka rivers. 相似文献
4.
利用河西内陆河水文代表站1959-2004年逐月径流量资料、内陆河流域灌溉区1949-2001年耕地面积及代表站1961-2005年的气象资料, 通过对径流量进行正态化处理来确定径流量Z指数, 并以径流量Z指数作为径流干旱指数, 对旱涝等级进行划分; 考虑径流量Z指数的旱涝等级与农业灌溉用水实际情况之间的关系, 给出了径流量Z指数的灌溉指标。将径流量转化为降水量, 改进Palmer旱度模式, 且在作改进后, 又将潜在蒸散量的计算法由利用桑斯威特公式改为利用彭曼公式。结果表明:将径流量考虑到Palmer干旱指数中并改变蒸散量的算法, 使得该指数对河西灌溉区干旱情况的监测均有所改善。对照河西地区的干旱事件, 径流量Z指数监测到的干旱情况, 比Palmer干旱指数改进前、后监测到的干旱情况效果更佳。径流量Z指数能更真实地反映河西灌溉区干旱状况。 相似文献
5.
E. V. Gurevich 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2011,36(5):348-353
Investigations carried out in the Northern Dvina River basin revealed that the decrease in the ice thickness on small rivers is of significant importance in the increase in the water content of rivers in winter in recent decades. This process resulted in the improvement of the channel capacity as a result of the decrease in the ice formation intensity on the rivers and of the increase in the fraction of ground waters participating in the winter river runoff formation. It is proposed to consider the initial winter ice conditions as a separate important factor of this process as they define the types of river freezing influencing on the winter river runoff formation as well. 相似文献
6.
胡文峰 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2019,13(4):24-29
根据精河流域1957—2012年的气温、降水和径流量等资料,分析了精河流域近55 a来径流量的变化趋势和周期特征,研究了河川径流及对气候变化的响应关系,并建立基于多变量时间序列自回归CAR(Controlled Auto-regressive)径流预测模型。结果表明:(1)精河径流在年内分配不均,季节变化明显,夏季集中,枯水期长且枯季径流量小。6—9月为径流连续最大4个月,占全年径流量的74%。(2)从20世纪80年代开始,河川径流量增加,持续至90年代,在21世纪有减小的趋势,1981—2005年平均年径流总量比1957—1980年增加了3.24%。(3)精河流域年径流量序列在21 a和13 a左右的振荡周期最为明显,其次是32 a和9 a,而其中的21 a和13 a时间尺度上的振荡是全时域的。(4)建立了径流与降水和气温的CAR模型,发现拟合平均相对误差为6.54%,均方根误差为0.039。用CAR模型模拟河流年径流量误差在可接受范围内,可以利用该模型对精河流域年径流量进行预测。 相似文献
7.
M. V. Bolgov E. A. Korobkina M. D. Trubetskova M. K. Filimonova I. A. Filippova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2014,39(3):187-194
Carried out is the analysis of stationarity of minimum runoff series in summer and winter for the Volga basin rivers. Two conditionally homogeneous periods are singled out within the temporal variations of these characteristics, and the date of their change varies throughout the territory of the basin. The considerable rise in air temperature in winter on the whole territory of the Volga basin is demonstrated as a result of the analysis of meteorological parameters. The relationship between runoff variations and wintertime temperature variations is proposed for predicting the minimum runoff. The distribution of minimum values of runoff is computed using this dependence and the forecast method based on the sum of distributions. 相似文献
8.
L. S. Kuchment A. N. Gel’fan V. N. Demidov P. Yu. Romanov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2011,36(9):630-637
A technique is proposed of precomputing the snowmelt runoff hydrograph on the basis of physical and mathematical models of
river runoff formation, available standard data of surface hydrometeorological measurements, and satellite measurements of
Earth’s surface conditions. The computations were carried out for two regions including the basins of the Vyatka and Don rivers.
It is demonstrated that, in spite of the possible errors and gaps depending on meteorological conditions, the satellite snow
cover measurements can be an important addition to the surface measurements for simulating a spatial picture of the runoff
formation. The use of physical and mathematical models of the runoff formation enables to reduce the errors of satellite snow
cover data and to ensure the spatiotemporal continuity of its monitoring. 相似文献
9.
E. V. Gurevich 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2011,36(2):130-133
Results of investigations of the winter river runoff formation in the Northern Dvina River basin (without the Vychegda River basin) are under consideration. The peculiarities of the winter runoff formation are revealed from the analysis of the conditions of the runoff reduction in different parts of the river basin. A regulatory effect of the upper links of the river net on the lower links is established. 相似文献
10.
In this paper, possible ways to increase effectiveness of the long-term ensemble spring floods forecasting and to assess their uncertainty based on the physical-mathematical model of the runoff formation (for the Vyatka River case study) are studied. It is shown that deterministic forecasts issued by using this approach are more accurate than those obtained from the traditional forecasting methods based on regression relationships. Probabilistic methods of forecasting of the spring flood volume and maximum discharge, which are issued by using various ways of the weather ensembles setting, are compared. Reliability of probabilistic forecasts of the volume and maximum discharge is estimated. 相似文献
11.
A spatial model is proposed of snowmelt-rainfall runoff formation of the mountain river enabling to take account of spatial
inhomogeneity of the river catchment and vertical zoning of physiographic and meteorological conditions. The model describes
the processes of snow cover formation at various altitudes and snow melting, infiltration into the soils, evaporation, and
overland, subsurface and riverbed flows. The verification of the model was carried out from the observational data in the
Kuban River basin up to the town of Armavir. 相似文献
12.
V. Yu. Georgievskii E. A. Grek E. N. Grek A. G. Lobanova T. G. Molchanova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(10):633-638
Long-term changes in peak spring runoff and daily minimum winter and summer-autumn runoff in the Volga River basin are analyzed based on observational data from 94 gaging stations. It is revealed that climate changes in the basin during the period from the late 1970s till the middle of the 1980s led to the significant increase in minimum discharge, but maximum runoff changed ambiguously. The regions with the disturbed uniformity of the series of extreme values of river runoff are identified. Changes in the values of high runoff, above the 10% probability, and low runoff, below the 90% probability, are analyzed for current climate conditions. Under nonstationary conditions, it is recommended to assess the probability characteristics of extreme runoff with compound distribution curves or based on the Bayesian approach. 相似文献
13.
The problem of runoff prediction taking into account the possible climate change is considered using the Bayesian approach. The proposed technique is applied to the probabilistic forecasting of minimum runoff variations on the rivers of the Volga River basin. 相似文献
14.
Considered is the possibility of using copula theory for creating joint probability distributions of springflood peak discharges and flow volumes taking account of the relations between discharges and flow volumes. For approximation of marginal distributions, Gumbel distribution was used for peak discharges, and two-parameter gamma distribution, for flow volumes. Joint two-dimensional distribution was built as a marginal distribution function which was set as one of the three one-parameter Archimedean copulas using different ways of determining their parameters. The best results were obtained for Gumbel-Hougaard copula using the method of maximum likelihood to determine its parameters. Major flood risk estimates determined from one- and two-dimensional probability distributions of their characteristics were compared with each other. Demonstrated are the benefits of using two-dimensional probability distributions of flood characteristics as compared with one-dimensional distributions for probabilistic estimation of floods. The data on springflood peak discharges and flow volumes in the Belaya and Vyatka rivers were used for this study. 相似文献
15.
16.
利用取消流域土壤表层饱和导水率0K、土壤饱和导水率有效衰减系数m和地下水补给速率R为空间均匀假设的幂指数TOPMODEL,对流域水量平衡各分量进行敏感性研究试验,揭示空间非均匀性对幂指数TOPMODEL模拟结果的影响。从特定研究流域所得结果中可得的主要结论有:1)0K、m和R的空间变化对流域的逐日地表径流和基流以及逐日总径流有影响,针对设定的0K、m和R的空间变化,其中m的空间变化较明显地增加了逐日地表径流和洪峰流量。2)就设定的0K、m和R的空间变化而论,对流域多年平均年总径流以及蒸发模拟结果影响不大,但改变了径流在地表径流和基流之间的分配;其中R的空间变化影响最显著,m和0K的空间变化影响则较小。 相似文献
17.
An approach to assessing design hydrological characteristics under nonstationary conditions is under consideration. The Bayesian
algorithm for assessing prognostic (design) characteristics of the minimum runoff is recommended with a special reference
to processing observation data on the river runoff in the Upper Don River basin. 相似文献
18.
Yu. G. Motovilov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2017,42(2):121-128
The potential of the model approach to the construction of mean annual fields (maps) of specific runoff for large territories from meteorological data is demonstrated for the Lena River basin. The ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics), the physically based distributed model of river runoff formation is used to simulate hydrological parameters. Methodological aspects of calibration of the spatial fields of model parameters are discussed. The results of runoff hydrograph calculations are compared with the data of hydrometric observations at 12 gaging stations for the period of 1966-2009. The field of mean annual specific runoff in the Lena River batin computed with the ECOMAG model is compared with the map of specific runoff constructed from the data on water discharge in the river network. The comparative analysis of consistency between the fields is provided, and the possible sources of errors are considered. 相似文献
19.
《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):139-153
Abstract Implementation and validation of a flow routing scheme for the North American domain of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is described. A variable velocity flow routing algorithm is used to transport runoff from the land surface to the continental edges and provide freshwater flux forcing for the oceans. The flow routing scheme uses Manning's equation to estimate flow velocities for river channels whose cross‐sections are assumed to be rectangular. Discretization of major North American river basins and their flow directions are obtained at the polar stereographic resolution of the CRCM using 5‐minute global river flow direction data as a template. In the absence of observation‐based gridded estimates of runoff, model runoff estimates from a global simulation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model (forced with observationbased meteorological data) are used to validate the flow routing scheme. Model results show that the inclusion of flow routing improves the comparison with observation‐based streamflow estimates when compared to the unrouted runoff. Monthly comparison of simulated streamflow with observation‐based estimates, and basin‐wide averaged flow velocities, suggests that the flow routing scheme performs satisfactorily. 相似文献
20.
S. K. Davletgaliev 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2012,37(10):653-658
Demonstrated is the possibility of the group modeling of the series of monthly precipitation amount using the method of canonical expansion. Used are the algorithms and software computing programs developed as applied to the statistical models of the monthly and annual river runoff. The model of canonical expansion preserves all statistical characteristics of initial series. 相似文献