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1.
A potential consequence of climate change is an alteration of the frequency of extreme coastal storm surge events. It is
these extreme events which, from an impacts point of view, will be of more concern than the slow inundation of coastal areas
by century scale changes in mean sea level. In this study, a 35 km resolution storm surge model of the North west European
continental shelf region has been driven by winds and pressures from the Hadley Centre nested regional climate model. Simulations
of both present day and future climate (the end of the twentyfirst century) have been performed. The results suggest that,
in addition to the effect of rising mean sea level, at many locations around the United Kingdom coastline future changes in
local meteorology will lead to further significant changes in the return periods of extreme storm surge events. At most sites,
this meteorologically forced change represents a reduction in return period.
Received: 18 September 2000 / Accepted: 8 February 2001 相似文献
2.
Alberto Troccoli Filippo Zambon Kevin I. Hodges Marco Marani 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):1065-1079
Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations. 相似文献
3.
Isaac Boateng 《Climatic change》2012,114(2):273-293
Sea-level rise is a major coastal issue in the 21st century because many of the world??s built assets are located in the coastal zone. Coastal erosion and flooding are serious threats along the coast of Ghana, particularly, the eastern coast where the Volta delta is located. Past human interventions, climate change and the resultant rise in sea-levels, increased storm intensity and torrential rainfall have been blamed for these problems. Accelerated sea-level rise and storm surge pose serious threat to coastal habitat, bio-diversity and socio-economic activities in the coastal zone of Ghana and elsewhere. There is the need for an holistic assessment of the impacts of sea-level rise on the coast zone in order to formulate appropriate adaptation policies and strategies to mitigate the possible effects. Using the eastern coast of Ghana as a case study, this paper assesses the physical impacts of accelerated sea level rise and storm surge on the coastal environment. It evaluates adaptation policies and plans that could be implemented to accommodate the present and any future impacts. Field investigation and Geographic Information System (GIS) are among the methods used for the assessment. The outcome of the assessment has provided comprehensive knowledge of the potential impacts of accelerated sea-level rise and storm surge on the eastern coast. It has facilitated identification of management units, the appraisal of alternate adaptation policies and the selection of the best policy options based upon the local conditions and environmental sustainability. Among other things, this paper reveals that the eastern coast of Ghana is highly vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and therefore, requires sustainable adaptation policies and plans to manage the potential impacts. It recommends that various accommodation policies, which enable areas to be occupied for longer before eventual retreat, could be adapted to accommodate vulnerable settlements in the eastern coast of Ghana. 相似文献
4.
Nancy Soontiens Susan E. Allen Doug Latornell Kate Le Souëf Idalia Machuca Jean-Philippe Paquin 《大气与海洋》2016,54(1):1-21
The Strait of Georgia is a large, semi-enclosed body of water between Vancouver Island and the mainland of British Columbia connected to the Pacific Ocean via Juan de Fuca Strait at the south and Johnstone Strait at the north. During the winter months, coastal communities along the Strait of Georgia are at risk of flooding caused by storm surges, a natural hazard that can occur when a strong storm coincides with high tide. This investigation produces storm surge hindcasts using a three-dimensional numerical ocean model for the Strait of Georgia and the surrounding bodies of water (Juan de Fuca Strait, Puget Sound, and Johnstone Strait) collectively known as the Salish Sea. The numerical model employs the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean architecture in a regional configuration. The model is evaluated through comparisons of tidal elevation harmonics and storm surge with observations. Important forcing factors contributing to storm surges are assessed. It is shown that surges entering the domain from the Pacific Ocean make the most significant contribution to surge amplitude within the Strait of Georgia. Comparisons between simulations and high-resolution and low-resolution atmospheric forcing further emphasize that remote forcing is the dominant factor in surge amplitudes in this region. In addition, local wind patterns caused a slight increase in surge amplitude on the mainland side of the Strait of Georgia compared with Vancouver Island coastal areas during a major wind storm on 15 December 2006. Generally, surge amplitudes are found to be greater within the Strait of Georgia than in Juan de Fuca Strait. 相似文献
5.
Kathleen L. McInnes Graeme D. Hubbert Debbie J. Abbs Steve E. Oliver 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2002,80(1-4):217-233
Summary A coastal ocean model capable of modelling tides, storm surge and the overland flow of floodwaters has been further developed
to include the flux of water from tributaries and the forcing from wave breaking that leads to wave setup in the nearshore
zone. The model is set up over the Gold Coast Broadwater on the east coast of Australia. This complex region features a coastal
lagoon into which five tributaries flow and is subject to flooding from extreme oceanic conditions such as storm surge and
wave setup as well as terrestrial runoff. Weather conditions responsible for storm surge, waves and flooding include cyclones
of both tropical and mid-latitude origin.
Two events are modelled. The first is an east coast low event that occurred in April 1989. This event verified well against
available observations and analysis of the model simulations revealed that wave setup produced a greater contribution to the
elevated water levels than the storm surge. The second case to be modelled was tropical cyclone Wanda, responsible for the
1974 floods. Modelled water levels in the Broadwater were reasonably well captured. Sensitivity experiments showed that storm
surge and wave setup were only minor contributors to the elevated sea levels and their contribution was confined to the earlier
stage of the event before the runoff reached its peak. The contribution due solely to runoff exhibited a tidal-like oscillation
that was 180° out-of-phase with the tide and this was attributed to the greater hydraulic resistance that occurs at high tide.
A simulation of this event with present day bathymetry at the Seaway produced sea levels that were 0.3–0.4 m lower than the
simulation with 1974 bathymetry highlighting the effectiveness of deepened Seaway channel to reduce the impact of severe runoff
events in the Broadwater.
Received October 16, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001 相似文献
6.
Joseph Park Jayantha Obeysekera Michelle Irizarry Jenifer Barnes Paul Trimble Winifred Park-Said 《Climatic change》2011,107(1-2):109-128
Water resource management in South Florida faces nearly intractable problems, in part due to weather and climate variability. Rising sea level and coastal storm surge are two phenomena with significant impacts on natural systems, fresh water supplies and flood drainage capability. However, decision support information regarding management of water resources in response to storm surge is not well developed. In an effort to address this need we analyze long term tidal records from Key West, Pensacola and Mayport Florida to extract surge distributions, to which we apply a nonlinear eustatic sea level rise model to project storm surge return levels and periods. Examination of climate connections reveals a statistically significant dependence between surge distributions and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Based on a recent probabilistic model for AMO phase changes, we develop AMO-dependent surge distributions. These AMO-dependent surge projections are used to examine the flood control response of a coastal water management structure as an example of how climate dependent water resource forcings can be used in the formulation of decision support tools. 相似文献
7.
为验证德国汉堡大学所开发的三维陆架模式HAMSOM(Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model)对渤海海域气旋风暴潮模拟的可行性和准确度, 并对不同来源气象数据的模拟结果进行比较, 分别使用T213和NCEP资料的风场和气压场数据, 运用HAM SOM模式对2007年3月4—5日发生在渤海和黄海北部的气旋风暴潮增水过程进行了数值模拟。模拟结果较好地反映出烟台、威海两站风暴潮增水过程的水位变化, 较准确地模拟出风暴潮在渤海、黄海北部的增水过程, 且T213资料比NCEP资料的模拟结果更接近实况, 该模式对研究和模拟渤海气旋风暴潮比较适用。 相似文献
8.
9.
The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: answering recent challenges to the paradigm 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Keryn B. Gedan Matthew L. Kirwan Eric Wolanski Edward B. Barbier Brian R. Silliman 《Climatic change》2011,106(1):7-29
For more than a century, coastal wetlands have been recognized for their ability to stabilize shorelines and protect coastal
communities. However, this paradigm has recently been called into question by small-scale experimental evidence. Here, we
conduct a literature review and a small meta-analysis of wave attenuation data, and we find overwhelming evidence in support
of established theory. Our review suggests that mangrove and salt marsh vegetation afford context-dependent protection from
erosion, storm surge, and potentially small tsunami waves. In biophysical models, field tests, and natural experiments, the
presence of wetlands reduces wave heights, property damage, and human deaths. Meta-analysis of wave attenuation by vegetated
and unvegetated wetland sites highlights the critical role of vegetation in attenuating waves. Although we find coastal wetland
vegetation to be an effective shoreline buffer, wetlands cannot protect shorelines in all locations or scenarios; indeed large-scale
regional erosion, river meandering, and large tsunami waves and storm surges can overwhelm the attenuation effect of vegetation.
However, due to a nonlinear relationship between wave attenuation and wetland size, even small wetlands afford substantial
protection from waves. Combining man-made structures with wetlands in ways that mimic nature is likely to increase coastal
protection. Oyster domes, for example, can be used in combination with natural wetlands to protect shorelines and restore
critical fishery habitat. Finally, coastal wetland vegetation modifies shorelines in ways (e.g. peat accretion) that increase
shoreline integrity over long timescales and thus provides a lasting coastal adaptation measure that can protect shorelines
against accelerated sea level rise and more frequent storm inundation. We conclude that the shoreline protection paradigm
still stands, but that gaps remain in our knowledge about the mechanistic and context-dependent aspects of shoreline protection. 相似文献
10.
Abstract Storm surges in various Canadian waters are reviewed. Following a brief discussion of the weather systems that cause storm surges in Canadian coastal and inland waters, the mathematical formulations to describe the development of storm surges are given. In reviewing storm surges in the different Canadian waters, particular attention is given to describe the influence of the presence of sea ice on surge development and the impact of shallow coastal areas, where the coastline configuration is itself changed by the surge, on inland penetration of the storm surge. The Canadian waters that may be affected by storm surges include the east and west coasts, the Beaufort Sea, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence estuary, Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes. 相似文献
11.
渤海西岸致灾风暴潮的统计预报模型 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
渤海西岸是风暴潮灾害多发区,1990年代以后发生几率和灾害损失明显增加。利用气象科学和海洋水文科学相结合的方法,依据黄骅港潮汐资料,对发生在渤海西岸的风暴潮进行统计分析。结果表明,台风和强冷空气配合气旋是造成渤海西岸风暴潮的主要天气系统,偏东大风增水和天文潮叠加是造成风暴潮的直接因素;风暴潮和天文潮汐都有半日潮现象。在此基础上,建立了渤海西岸风暴潮预报模型,通过台风或冷空气配合气旋影响时增水值的计算,结合天文潮汐资料,做出最高潮位预报。应用该预报方法对渤海西岸发生的7次风暴潮进行回报,预报值与实测值基本相当,是基层台站较实用的预报方法。 相似文献
12.
Monitoring sea level changes 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Vivien Gornitz 《Climatic change》1995,31(2-4):515-544
Future sea level rise arouses concern because of potentially deleterious impacts to coastal regions. These will stem not only from the loss of land through inundation and erosion, but also from increased frequency of storm floods, with a rising base level, even with no change in storm climatology, and from saltwater intrusion and greater amounts of waterlogging. Current sea level trends are important in formulating an accurate baseline for future projections. Sea level, furthermore, is an important parameter which integrates a number of oceanic and atmospheric processes. The ocean surface demonstrates considerable variability on diurnal, seasonal, and interannual time scales, induced by winds, storm waves, coastal upwelling, and geostrophic currents. Secular trends in sea level arise from changes in global mean temperature and also from crustal deformation on local to regional scales. The challenge facing researchers is how best to extract the climate signal from this noise.This paper re-examines recent estimates of sea level rise, discusses causes of variability in the sea level records, and describes methods employed to filter out some of these contaminating signals. Evidence for trends in long-term sea level records and in extreme events is investigated. Application of satellite geodesy to sea level research is briefly reviewed. 相似文献
13.
As the risk of storm surge on coastal plains increases, the research on disaster risk assessment is fundamental for disaster management. Disaster risk assessment tends to develop towards the direction of refinement and it gradually plays a more important role. As regards the characteristics of storm tide disaster in coastal plain, the paper uses refined floodplain numerical model which combines typhoon, flood, astronomical tide and waves. The model also considers influencing factors of dike-breaking, micro-topography and buildings. Precise calculation is executed for the range and the submerged depth caused by floodplain flow in coastal plain. Based on 3S technology, disaster-bearing bodies are subdivided into the smallest unit of the ground object, and the vulnerability of these units is evaluated. Refined risk assessment of storm surge disaster for the coastal plain is obtained, and the detailed distribution of risk areas at different risk levels is achieved. These results can be widely applied in many fields, such as disaster prevention and mitigation, urban planning, industrial arrangement, disaster insurance and so on. 相似文献
14.
Abstract A powerful storm passed over the coastal waters of eastern Canada on the 21 and 22 January 2000 causing significant damage to coastal infrastructure. The storm generated a large (>1.4 m) storm surge in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence that unfortunately coincided with a high spring tide. This resulted in record high water levels in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (e.g., the highest level at Charlottetown since records began in 1911) and severe flooding around Prince Edward Island and along the eastern shore of New Brunswick. During January 2000, a recently developed storm surge forecast system was running in pre‐operational mode at Dalhousie University. The core of the forecast system is a depth‐averaged, non‐linear, barotropic ocean model driven by forecast winds and air pressures produced by the Canadian Meteorological Centre's regional atmospheric forecast model. In this study we assess the forecast skill of the surge model for the 21 January storm by comparing its 24‐hour forecasts with two independent hourly dataseis: (i) sea levels recorded by 12 tide gauges located in eastern Canada and the north‐eastern United States, and (ii) depth‐mean currents recorded by an acoustic Doppler current profiler deployed on the outer Scotian Shelf. Overall, the forecasts of coastal sea level and depth‐mean currents are reasonable and have forecast errors below about 0.1 m and 0.1 m s?1 respectively. 相似文献
15.
Abstract Changes to the Beaufort Sea shoreline occur due to the impact of storms and rising relative sea level. During the open‐water season (June to October), storm winds predominantly from the north‐west generate waves and storm surges which are effective in eroding thawing ice‐rich cliffs and causing overwash of gravel beaches. Climate change is expected to be enhanced in Arctic regions relative to the global mean and include accelerated sea‐level rise, more frequent extreme storm winds, more frequent and extreme storm surge flooding, decreased sea‐ice extent, more frequent and higher waves, and increased temperatures. We investigate historical records of wind speeds and directions, water levels, sea‐ice extent and temperature to identify variability in past forcing and use the Canadian Global Coupled Model ensembles 1 and 2 (CGCM1 and CGCM2) climate modelling results to develop a scenario forcing future change of Beaufort Sea shorelines. This scenario and future return periods of peak storm wind speeds and water levels likely indicate increased forcing of coastal change during the next century resulting in increased rates of cliff erosion and beach migration, and more extreme flooding. 相似文献
16.
Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Mir Emad Mousavi Jennifer L. Irish Ashley E. Frey Francisco Olivera Billy L. Edge 《Climatic change》2011,104(3-4):575-597
Tens of millions of people around the world are already exposed to coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Global warming has the potential to increase hurricane flooding, both by hurricane intensification and by sea level rise. In this paper, the impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise are evaluated using hydrodynamic surge models and by considering the future climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the Corpus Christi, Texas, United States study region, mean projections indicate hurricane flood elevation (meteorologically generated storm surge plus sea level rise) will, on average, rise by 0.3 m by the 2030s and by 0.8 m by the 2080s. For catastrophic-type hurricane surge events, flood elevations are projected to rise by as much as 0.5 m and 1.8 m by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively. 相似文献
17.
基于城市内涝仿真模型,根据天津沿海地区的地形、地貌特征以及排水系统等对城市内涝仿真模型进行改进,在沿海边界和河口设置时变水位,使得模型拓展到既能模拟暴雨产生的内涝,也能模拟由于风暴潮侵袭造成的淹没情景。该模型对天津沿海地区历史上典型风暴潮个例以及10年、20年、50年、100年一遇重现期风暴潮产生的积水范围和积水深度进行了模拟,并对2012年8月3日台风达维 (1210) 造成的天津沿海风暴潮进行了业务试应用。将历史风暴潮个例模拟结果以及2012年8月3日的评估结果与实际灾情进行对比,结果显示模型具有较好的模拟能力,可应用于风暴潮灾害的评估和预估业务中,为相关部门和行业提供决策参考。 相似文献
18.
Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Ivan D. Haigh Leigh R. MacPherson Matthew S. Mason E. M. S. Wijeratne Charitha B. Pattiaratchi Ryan P. Crompton Steve George 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):139-157
The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones. 相似文献
19.
风暴潮是指由强烈的大气扰动所导致的海面异常升高现象,由热带气旋引起的风暴潮常对沿海地区造成巨大的社会经济、人类活动和生命财产危害。依靠数据驱动的强非线性映射能力的机器学习方法较传统数值模式预报在耗费研究资源和计算时间上更具优势。本文选取广东省珠江口为研究区域,基于卷积长短时记忆网络（Convolutional LSTM network,ConvLSTM）机器学习算法展开风暴潮漫滩预报研究,利用由再分析资料驱动的数值模式产品构建了历史台风漫滩数据集,用于机器学习模型训练、验证和测试。研究了两种预报方式,一种是基于海表面高度场的自回归预报,另一种是依赖预报风场和初始海表面高度场进行的预报;它们可以实现基于数据驱动的风暴潮漫滩预报,其中自回归预报模型表现更优。相较于传统动力学数值预报,基于数据驱动的ConvLSTM预报模型结构更为轻便,所需驱动数据更少,在缺少边界条件、地形、径流等信号时,在短临预报中仍能基本复现数值模式模拟的结果。 相似文献
20.
A. A. Apukhtin G. N. Bessan S. M. Gordeeva M. K. Klevannaya K. A. Klevannyy 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2017,42(2):113-120
At the designing of nuclear power facilities at the coastal sites the risk of their flooding caused by the combinations of adverse hydrometeorological events should be assessed with the probability of exceedance to 0.01%. According to the IAEA recommendations, the combination of statistical and deterministic methods was used to calculate the flood level of such rare occurrence. The level of flooding caused by the storm surge and reiated wind waves were computed with the probability of 0.01% for the coastal part of the Koporye Bay of the Gulf of Finland in the area of the Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant 2 (LNPP 2) construction; the results are presented. The calculations are based on the CARDINAL and SWAN software and four nested numerical models (for the Baltic Sea, the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, the Koporye Bay, and a part of the bay in the area of LNPP). The decrease in sea-surface drag coefficient at hurricane winds is taken into account. 相似文献