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1.
In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future.  相似文献   

2.
This paper presents a seismic hazard evaluation and develops an earthquake catalogue for the Constantine region over the period from 1357 to 2014. The study contributes to the improvement of seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazards in Northeast Algeria. A regional seismicity analysis was conducted based on reliable earthquake data obtained from various agencies (CRAAG, IGN, USGS and ISC). All magnitudes (M l, m b) and intensities (I 0, I MM, I MSK and I EMS) were converted to M s magnitudes using the appropriate relationships. Earthquake hazard maps were created for the Constantine region. These maps were estimated in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 s. Five seismogenic zones are proposed. This new method differs from the conventional method because it incorporates earthquake magnitude uncertainty and mixed datasets containing large historical events and recent data. The method can be used to estimate the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, annual activity rate λ(M) of an event and maximum possible magnitude M max using incomplete and heterogeneous data files. In addition, an earthquake is considered a Poisson with an annual activity rate λ and with a doubly truncated exponential earthquake magnitude distribution. Map of seismic hazard and an earthquake catalogue, graphs and maps were created using geographic information systems (GIS), the Z-map code version 6 and Crisis software 2012.  相似文献   

3.
The earthquake hazard parameters and earthquake occurrence probabilities are computed for the different regions of the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) using Bayesian method. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for a time period between 1900 and 2015. Only two historical earthquakes (1766, M S = 7. 3 and 1897, M S = 7. 0) are included in Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the near future since no large earthquake has been observed for the instrumental period. In order to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters for next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years, M max (maximum regional magnitude), β value, λ (seismic activity or density) are computed for the different regions of NAFZ. The computed M max values are changed between 7.11 and 7.89. While the highest magnitude value is calculated in the Region 9 related to Tokat-Erzincan, the lowest value in the Region 10 including the eastern of Erzincan. The “quantiles” of “apparent” and “true” magnitudes of future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % of the 10 different seismic source regions. The region between Tokat and Erzincan has earthquake hazard level according to the determined parameters. In this region the expected maximum earthquake size is 7.8 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years. While the regional M max value of Marmara Region is computed as 7.61, expected maximum earthquake size is 7.37 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years.  相似文献   

4.
We apply the general concept of seismic risk analysis based on morphostructural analysis of the territory, pattern recognition of earthquake-prone nodes, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, in another seismic region of Russia to the west from Lake Baikal, i.e., Altai–Sayan Region. The USLE generalizes the empirical Gutenberg–Richter relationship making use of apparently fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size: \( \log_{10} N\left( {M,L} \right)\, = \,A\, + \,B \cdot \left( {5\, - \,M} \right)\, + \,C \cdot \log_{10} L, \) where N (M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The local estimates of A, B, and C allow determination of the expected maximum credible magnitude in a given time interval and the associated spread around ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macroseismic intensity, I0). Compilation of the corresponding seismic hazard map of Altai–Sayan Region and its rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past is used to model regional maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures.  相似文献   

5.
Multifractal behaviour of interevent time sequences is investigated for the earthquake events in the NW Himalaya, which is one of the most seismically active zones of India and experienced moderate to large damaging earthquakes in the past. In the present study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to understand the multifractal behaviour of the earthquake data. For this purpose, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of the period 1965–2013 with a magnitude of completeness M w 4.3 is used. The analysis revealed the presence of multifractal behaviour and sharp changes near the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude (M w ) greater than 6.6 including the October 2005, Muzaffarabad–Kashmir earthquake. The multifractal spectrum and related parameters are explored to understand the time dynamics and clustering of the events.  相似文献   

6.
On 8th August 2017, a magnitude Ms 7.0 earthquake struck the County of Jiuzhaigou, in Sichuan Province, China. It was the third Ms ≥?7.0 earthquake in the Longmenshan area in the last decade, after the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake. The event did not produce any evident surface rupture but triggered significant mass wasting. Based on a large set of pre- and post-earthquake high-resolution satellite images (SPOT-5, Gaofen-1 and Gaofen-2) as well as on 0.2-m-resolution UAV photographs, a polygon-based interpretation of the coseismic landslides was carried out. In total, 1883 landslides were identified, covering an area of 8.11 km2, with an estimated total volume in the order of 25–30?×?106 m3. The total landslide area was lower than that produced by other earthquakes of similar magnitude with strike-slip motion, possibly because of the limited surface rupture. The spatial distribution of the landslides was correlated statistically to a number of seismic, terrain and geological factors, to evaluate the landslide susceptibility at regional scale and to identify the most typical characteristics of the coseismic failures. The landslides, mainly small-scale rockfalls and rock/debris slides, occurred mostly along two NE-SW-oriented valleys near the epicentre. Comparatively, high landslide density was found at locations where the landform evolves from upper, broad valleys to lower, deep-cut gorges. The spatial distribution of the coseismic landslides did not seem correlated to the location of any known active faults. On the contrary, it revealed that a previously-unknown blind fault segment—which is possibly the north-western extension of the Huya fault—is the plausible seismogenic fault. This finding is consistent with what hypothesised on the basis of field observations and ground displacements.  相似文献   

7.
This study analyzed 267 landslide landforms (LLs) in the Kumamoto area of Japan from the database of about 0.4 million LLs for the whole of Japan identified from aerial photos by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience of Japan (NIED). Each LL in the inventory is composed of a scarp and a moving mass. Since landslides are prone to reactivation, it is important to evaluate the sliding-recurrence susceptibility of LLs. One possible approach to evaluate the susceptibility of LLs is slope stability analysis. A previous study found a good correlation (R 2 = 0.99) between the safety factor (F s ) and slope angle (α) of F s  = 17.3α ?0.843. We applied the equation to the analysis of F s for 267 LLs in the area affected by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M j  = 7.3). The F s was calculated for the following three cases of failure: scarps only, moving mass only, and scarps and moving mass together. Verification with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake event shows that the most appropriate method for the evaluation of LLs is to consider the failure of scarps and moving mass together. In addition, by analyzing the relationship between the factors of slope of entire landslide and slope of scarp for LLs and comparing the results with the Aso-ohashi landslide, the largest landslide caused by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, we also found that morphometric analysis of LLs is useful for forecasting the travel distance of future landslides.  相似文献   

8.
This paper presents the first boundary equations describing the relationship between earthquake parameters (magnitude M S and macroseismic intensity I P at the observation point on the MSK-64 scale) and clastic dikes (having maximal thickness m cd , visible height h cd , and the index of manifestation intensity of dikes in the cross section I cd ). As was expected, the maximal size of dikes grows with an increase in the earthquake magnitude and macroseismic intensity. Analysis of the dependences showed that it is better to use all three parameters for estimation of the minimal threshold M S or I P from clastic dikes, and, in the absence of data on seismogenic rupture, the maximal calculated value should be used. Some limitations in application and the advantages of the equations obtained are discussed with respect to characterizing earthquakes of the pre-instrumental period.  相似文献   

9.
It is shown that the approximation of the complex, tidally distorted shape of a star as a circular disc with local line profiles and a linear limb-darkening law, which is usually applied when deriving equatorial stellar rotation velocities from line profiles, leads to overestimation of the equatorial velocity V rot sin i and underestimation of the component mass ratio q = M x /M v . A formula enabling correction of the effect of these simplifying assumptions on the shape of a star is used to re-determine the mass ratios q and the masses of the black holes M x and visual components M v in low-mass X-ray binary systems containing black holes. Taking into account the tidal–rotational distortion of the stellar shape can significantly increase the mass ratios q = M x /M v , reducing M v , while M x changes only slightly. The resulting distribution of M v attains its maximum near M v ? 0.35M ⊙, in disagreement with the results of population synthesis computations realizing standard models for Galactic X-ray novae with black holes. Possible ways to overcome this inconsistency are discussed. The derived distribution of M x also differs strongly from the mass distribution for massive stars in the Galaxy.  相似文献   

10.
In this paper, we present a seismic hazard scenario for the Garhwal region of the north-western Himalayan range, in terms of the horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration. The scenario earthquake of moment magnitude M w 8.5 has a 10% exceedance probability over the next 50 years. These estimates, the first for the region, were calculated through a stepwise process based on:
  • An estimation of the Maximum Credible Earthquake from the seismicity of the region and Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program considerations, and
  • four seismotectonic parameters abstracted from near field weak-motion data recorded at five stations installed in Chamoli District of the Garhwal region in the aftermath of the 1999 Chamoli earthquake. The latter include
  • The frequency dependent power law for the shear wave quality factor, Q S
  • the site amplification at each station using horizontal-to-vertical-spectral ratio and generalized inversion technique
  • source parameters of various events recorded by the array and application of the resulting relations between the scalar seismic moment M 0 (dyne-cm) and moment magnitude M w and the corner frequency, ? c (Hz) and moment magnitude M w to simulate spectral acceleration due to higher magnitude events corresponding to the estimated Maximum Credible Earthquake, and
  • regional and site specific local spectral attenuation relations at different geometrically central frequencies in the low, moderate and high frequency bands.
  相似文献   

11.
An analysis of high-resolution CCD spectra of the giant 25 Mon, which shows signs of metallicity, and the normal giant HR 7389 is presented. The derived effective temperatures, gravitational accelerations, and microturbulence velocities are Teff = 6700 K, log g = 3.24, and ξ t = 3.1 km/s for 25 Mon and Teff = 6630 K, log g = 3.71, and ξ t = 2.6 km/s for HR 7389. The abundances (log ε) of nine elements are determined: carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, sodium, silicon, calcium, iron, nickel, and barium. The derived excess carbon abundances are 0.23 dex for 25 Mon and 0.16 dex for HR 7389. 25 Mon displays a modest (0.08 dex) oxygen excess, with the oxygen excess for HR 7389 being somewhat higher (0.15 dex). The nitrogen abundance is probably no lower than the solar value for both stars. The abundances of iron, sodium, calcium (for HR 7389), barium, and nickel exceed the solar values by 0.22–0.40 dex for both stars. The highest excess (0.62 dex) is exhibited by the calcium abundance for 25 Mon. Silicon displays a nearly solar abundance in both stars—small deficits of ?0.03 dex and ?0.07 dex for 25 Mon and HR 7389, respectively. No fundamental differences in the elemental abundances were found in the atmospheres of 25 Mon and HR 7389. Based on their Teff and log g values, as well as theoretical calculations, A. Claret estimated the masses, radii, luminosities, and ages of 25 Mon (M/M⊙ = 2.45, log(R/R⊙) = 0.79, log(L/L⊙) = 1.85, t = 5.3 × 108 yr) and HR 7389 (M/M⊙ = 2.36, log(R/R⊙) = 0.50, log(L/L⊙) = 1.24, t = 4.6 × 108 yr), and also of the stars 20 Peg (M/M⊙ = 2.36, log(R/R⊙) = 0.73, log(L/L⊙) = 1.79, t = 4.9 × 108 yr) and 30 LMi (M/M⊙ = 2.47, log(R/R⊙) = 0.73, log(L/L⊙) = 1.88, t = 4.8 × 108 yr) studied by the author earlier.  相似文献   

12.
We have obtained the first estimates of the masses of the components of the Her X-1/HZ Her X-ray binary system taking into account non-LTE effects in the formation of the H γ absorption line: m x = 1.8 M ⊙ and m v = 2.5 M ⊙. These mass estimates were made in a Roche model based on the observed radial-velocity curve of the optical star, HZ Her. The masses for the X-ray pulsar and optical star obtained for an LTE model lie are m x = 0.85 ± 0.15 M ⊙ and m v = 1.87 ± 0.13 M ⊙. These mass estimates for the components of Her X-1/HZ Her derived from the radial-velocity curve should be considered tentative. Further mass estimates from high-precision observations of the orbital variability of the absorption profiles in a non-LTE model for the atmosphere of the optical component should be made.  相似文献   

13.
The properties of the source spectra of local shallow-focus earthquakes on Kamchatka in the range of magnitudes M w = 3.5–6.5 are studied using 460 records of S-waves obtained at the PET station. The family of average source spectra is constructed; the spectra are used to study the relationship between M w and the key quasi-dimensionless source parameters: stress drop Δσ and apparent stress σa. It is found that the parameter Δσ is almost stable, while σa grows steadily as the magnitude M w increases, indicating that the similarity is violated. It is known that at sufficiently large M w the similarity hypothesis is approximately valid: both parameters Δσ and σa do not show any noticeable magnitude dependence. It has been established that M w ≈ 5.7 is the threshold value of the magnitude when the change in regimes described occurs for the conditions on Kamchatka.  相似文献   

14.
Seismic source characteristics in the Kachchh rift basin and Saurashtra horst tectonic blocks in the stable continental region (SCR) of western peninsular India are studied using the earthquake catalog data for the period 2006–2011 recorded by a 52-station broadband seismic network known as Gujarat State Network (GSNet) running by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Gujarat. These data are mainly the aftershock sequences of three mainshocks, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (M w 7.7) in the Kachchh rift basin, and the 2007 and 2011 Talala earthquakes (M w ≥ 5.0) in the Saurashtra horst. Two important seismological parameters, the frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and the fractal correlation dimension (D c) of the hypocenters, are estimated. The b-value and the D c maps indicate a difference in seismic characteristics of these two tectonic regions. The average b-value in Kachchh region is 1.2 ± 0.05 and that in the Saurashtra region 0.7 ± 0.04. The average D c in Kachchh is 2.64 ± 0.01 and in Saurashtra 2.46 ± 0.01. The hypocenters in Kachchh rift basin cluster at a depth range 20–35 km and that in Saurashtra at 5–10 km. The b-value and D c cross sections image the seismogenic structures that shed new light on seismotectonics of these two tectonic regions. The mainshock sources at depth are identified as lower b-value or stressed zones at the fault end. Crustal heterogeneities are well reflected in the maps as well as in the cross sections. We also find a positive correlation between b- and D c-values in both the tectonic regions.  相似文献   

15.
We have determined the main parameters of the old precataclysmic variable stars MS Peg and LM Com. The radial velocities of the components, reflection effects in the spectra, and light curves of the systems are studied based on model stellar atmospheres subject to external irradiation. Forty-seven moderate-resolution spectra for MS Peg and 57 for LM Com obtained with the 6-m telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory are used to derive the refined orbital periods of 0.1736660 days and 0.2586873 days, respectively; the orbital eccentricities do not exceed e=0.04. The mass (M w =0.49e⊙) and radius (e w =0.015R⊙) of the MS Peg primary calculated using the gravitational redshift correspond to those for a cooling carbon white dwarf with a thin hydrogen envelope. The parameters of the red dwarf (M r =0.19M⊙, Teff=3560 K, R r =0.18R⊙) are close to those derived from evolutionary tracks for main-sequence M stars with solar chemical composition. The radius (R r =0.22R⊙) and temperature (Teff=3650 K) of the LM Com secondary exceed theoretical estimates for main-sequence stars with masses of M r =0.17M⊙. The luminosity excess of the red dwarf in LM Com can be explained by a prolonged (T>5×106 yrs) relaxation of the M star to its normal state after the binary leaves the common-envelope stage. For both systems, theoretical U, B, V, and R light curves and spectra calculated using the adopted sets of parameters are generally consistent with the observations. This confirms the radiative origin of the hot spots, the unimportance of horizontal radiative transport, and the absence of large-scale velocity fields with high values (Vtrans>50 km/s) at the surfaces of the secondaries. Most of the emission lines in the spectra of these objects are formed under conditions close to thermalization, enabling modeling of their pro files in an LTE approximation. A strong λ3905 Å emission line has been identified as the 3s23p4s 1P0-3s23p2 1S SiI λ3905.52 Å line formed in the atmosphere of the hot spot. The observed intensity can be explained by non-LTE “superionization” of SiI atoms by soft UV radiation from the white dwarf. We suggest a technique for identifying binaries whose cool components are subject to UV irradiation based on observations of λ3905 Å emission in their spectra.  相似文献   

16.
The M w 7.8 2015 Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks significantly impacted the lives and economy of Nepal. The consequences of landslides included fatalities, property losses, blockades of river flow, and damage to infrastructural systems. Co-seismic landslides triggered by this earthquake were significantly widespread and pose a major geodisaster. There were tens of thousands of landslides triggered by the earthquake, majority of which were distributed in between the epicenter of the main shock and the M w 7.3 aftershock. Although 14,670 landslides triggered by this earthquake were identified, only approximately 23% of them were of moderate to large scale with areas greater than 100 m2. Of the moderate- to large-scale landslides identified, just over 90% were triggered by the main shock and smaller aftershocks prior to the major (M w 7.3) aftershock, while nearly 10% were triggered by the ground shaking induced by the major aftershock. Moreover, the number of landslides triggered by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, specifically by the main shock, was slightly more than the expected number of landslides for the recorded maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) in comparison to the co-seismic landslides triggered by 26 earthquakes. Over 90% of those moderate- to large-scale landslides were concentrated within the estimated fault rupture surface. Majority of these moderate- to large-scale landslides were disrupted failures with over 96% of which were classified as earth falls. However, the majority of small-scale landslides were rock or boulder falls. The most number of moderate- to large-scale landslides were triggered in the slate, shale, siltstone, phyllite, and schist of the Lesser Himalayan formation followed by an equally significant number in both schist, gneiss, etc. of the Higher Himalayan formation and the phyllite, metasandstone, schist, etc. of the Lesser Himalayan formation. The sizes (i.e., areas) of the landslides were lognormally distributed, with a mode area of 322.0 m2. Slope inclinations of the moderate- to large-scale landslides followed a normal distribution with a mean slope inclination of 32.6° and standard deviation of 13.5°. There exists a strong correlation between the number of landslides and the peak ground acceleration within the study area, specific for different geological formations.  相似文献   

17.
We analyzed macroseismic data and considered the effect of extremely long range propagation of sensible shocks during the deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk on May 24, 2013 (Mw = 8.3). In order to explain this effect, we formulated and qualitatively solved the problem of superposition of P-waves over the radial mode 0S0 of the natural oscillations of the Earth during this earthquake. Our results confirmed the possibility of such an interpretation of the observed macroseismic effect and also allowed us to explain the fact of anomalously low decay of seismic disturbances with distance.  相似文献   

18.
Seismic hazard analysis of the northwest Himalayan belt was carried out by using extreme value theory (EVT). The rate of seismicity (a value) and recurrence intervals with the given earthquake magnitude (b value) was calculated from the observed data using Gutenberg–Richter Law. The statistical evaluation of 12,125 events from 1902 to 2017 shows the increasing trend in their inter-arrival times. The frequency–magnitude relation exhibits a linear downslope trend with negative slope of 0.8277 and positive intercept of 4.6977. The empirical results showed that the annual risk probability of high magnitude earthquake M?≥?7.7 in 50 years is 88% with recurrence period of 47 years, probability of M?≤?7.5 in 50 years is 97% with recurrence period of 27 years, and probability of M?≤?6.5 in 50 years is 100% with recurrence period of 4 years. Kashmir valley, located in the NW Himalaya, encompasses a peculiar tectonic and structural setup. The patterns of the present and historical seismicity records of the valley suggest a long-term strain accumulation along NNW and SSE extensions with the decline in the seismic gap, posing a potential threat of earthquakes in the future. The Kashmir valley is characterized by the typical lithological, tectono-geomorphic, geotechnical, hydrogeological and socioeconomic settings that augment the earthquake vulnerability associated with the seismicity of the region. The cumulative impact of the various influencing parameters therefore exacerbates the seismic hazard risk of the valley to future earthquake events.  相似文献   

19.
In order to study the dynamic response characteristics of a rock slope with discontinuities under the combined action of earthquakes and rapid water drawdown, a large-scale shaking table test was performed on a rock slope with discontinuous joints. Wenchuan earthquake (WE) seismic records were performed to investigate the horizontal and vertical acceleration response and displacement response. In particular, three-dimensional optical measurement techniques was used to obtain the slope surface displacements. A comparison was made on the seismic response according to the analysis of PGD (peak ground displacement) and M PGA (acceleration amplification coefficient) of the modeled slope. The results show that the experimental slope mainly underwent settlement and horizontal deformation when the WE records were applied in the z and x directions, respectively. The slope was first shaken by the P wave, which caused the differential settlement to occur at the surface slope; then, the slope was shaken more severely by the S wave, which led to a greater horizontal deformation. Moreover, analysis of the ΔPGD (increment of PGD) and ΔM PGA (increment of M PGA) under rapid drawdown suggests that the rapid water drawdown mainly impacts the deformation of the surface slope, particularly between the high and low water levels. The water infiltration through the cracks softened the material of the surface slope, and the rapid drawdown also enhanced the slope deformation. In addition, the damage evolution process of the slope can be identified, mainly including three stages: an elastic stage (<?0.168 g), a plastic stage (0.168–0.336 g), and a failure stage (>?0.336 g).  相似文献   

20.
The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter’s frequency–magnitude relation and the p-value of the modified Omori law, which describes the decay rate of aftershock activity, were investigated for more than 500 aftershocks in the Aksehir-Afyon graben (AAG) following the 15 December 2000 Sultandagi–Aksehir and the 3 February 2002 Çay–Eber and Çobanlar earthquakes. We used the Kandilli Observatory’s catalog, which contains records of aftershocks with magnitudes ≥2.5. For the Çobanlar earthquake, the estimated b-values for three aftershock sequences are in the range 0.34 ≤  b ≤ 2.85, with the exception of the one that occurred during the first hour (4.77), while the obtained p-values are in the range 0.44 ≤ p ≤ 1.77. The aftershocks of the Sultandagi earthquake have a high p-value, indicating fast decay of the aftershock activity. A regular increase of b can be observed, with b < 1.0 after 0.208 days for the Çay–Eber earthquake. A systematic and similar increase and decrease pattern exists for the b- and p-values of the Çobanlar earthquakes during the first 5 days.  相似文献   

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