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利用华南地区地震预测指标,分析其时、空、强预测特征显示：地震活动性指标均为中、长期预测指标,一般指示较大空间范围5级以上中强地震的发震危险性;地球物理观测指标以中、短期预测指标为主,一般指示异常台项周边、异常测值空间分布区或异常阈值线附近的4～5级左右地震的发震危险性。利用预测指标的上述特征,梳理出时间上不断逼近发震时间、空间上不断逼近发震危险区的预测思路流程。 相似文献
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预测的概念是随着人类对客观事物的认识的深入而不断发展的。在我们讨论某一现象能否预测时，应该考虑到这种发展变化。当我们把预测的概念理解为一个确定性的概念时，那么对于随机理象的预测是不可能的。一旦我们把预测的概念扩展到概率预测的范畴时，随机现象则被认为是可以预测的。如果把地震预测方法或意见的提出比做“酿酒”的话，那么对地震预测方法或意见的评估可以比做“品酒”，而地方兴未艾中意见的综合则可比做“勾兑”。酿酒是基础，而品酒对酿酒有着重要的指导作用，只有勾兑，才能出好酒。评估和综合相比，首先是评估，在评估的基础上，才能有正确的综合。笔者认为：目前的倾向是重“酿酒”轻“品酒”和“勾兑”。即使品酒，也常是由酿酒者自酿自品，这会影响其客观性和科学性。盲目追示高对应率一方面可能会得到一些虚假的预测指标，另一方面还可能会错过一些有意义的预测指标，特别是一些短期的预测指标。 相似文献
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本文在地震综合预报清理攻关及有关震例研究的基础上,根据地震孕育的阶段性,分四个时段提取了新疆地震预报实践中常用方法、手段的单项异常预报判据和指标,定性和定量地研讨了综合预报方法。提出地震综合预报的集成预测概率方法。 相似文献
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总结了四川及其邻区强地震(Ms6．0)前地下流体中的物理观测项(地下水位)异常特征和中短期过渡到短期的异常标志;在大量震例总结的基础上,确立了四川地下水位既简单又实用的短期地震前兆标志。采用统一的评分原则计算各种处理方法的预测成功率,用R值进行检验,R值为鉴定地震前兆的指标,R0为具有97．5％置信水平的临界值。 相似文献
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黑龙江及周边地区中强地震前加卸载响应比特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
选取所研究区域地震能量的贝尼奥夫应变(相当于室内岩石实验中的声发射)作为响应,以黑龙江及其周边地区2005年以来14次ML 5.0以上地震作为震例,检验卸载响应比理论的预测效果,提取异常特征,初步总结该方法的时、空、强预测指标,发现具有一定的预报效能。 相似文献
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Using taxa as indicators of environmental impacts is widespread. Indicators are chosen because they are considered to be easy to measure, sensitive to stresses and respond to stresses in predictable ways. Here, we review these criteria by addressing the nature of the relationships between some characteristic of taxa and the environmental variables they are supposed to indicate. It is crucial that variables measured as indicators be strongly and consistently correlated (through space and time) with levels of the environmental variables. Appropriate experiments must be done to establish that an observed correlation is causal, or the correlation cannot be considered sufficient to identify a useful indicator. Finally, it is necessary to establish that the taxa directly respond to changes in the environmental variables they are supposed to indicate. Appropriate methodologies to establish these criteria are considered and we evaluate studies in which these criteria have or have not been met. 相似文献
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破坏性地震短期临震预测的一个有效方法--关于短期临震气象要素五项指标异常 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
为探索Ms≥5．0级破坏性地震的短期临震预测问题,作者从1973年起潜心研究此问题,并于1975年5月正式提出：在震前一个月之内,将会出现日平均气压、日平均气温、日最高气温,日最低气温和日降水量五项指标的异常,这是从气象要素上表现出来的短期前兆异常,这是孕震过程中的短期临震气象效应表现。在唐山7．8级大地震发生前的关键时刻,1976年7月中旬和下旬初,作者依据旱震关系和短期气象要素五项指标异常,积极推动并参与了北京市地震队七大异常的震情告急活动。事实表明：在唐山Ms7．8级地震短期临震告急和宁河Ms6．9级地震短期临震预报上,气象要素五指标异常,经受住了短期临震预报实践的检验。 相似文献
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Sustainable impact of mussel farming in the Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea): evidence from biochemical, microbial and meiofaunal indicators 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
We have investigated the impact of a large mussel farm on the benthic environment using a battery of benthic indicators of environmental quality (including biochemical, microbial and meiofaunal parameters). These were analysed through a multi-control sampling strategy over one year. The differences across the seasons are typically higher than those between the impacted and the control stations. No effects are seen in terms of the sediment oxygen penetration and the downward fluxes (as the total mass, organic and phytopigment fluxes). The indicators based on the biochemical compositions of the sediment organic matter and the microbial parameters also show no evidence of the eutrophication process, except as a slight increase in the bacterial density in the sediments beneath the long-lines of the farm during the period of highest mussel stocks. Finally, no effects are observed in terms of the benthic faunal indicators, as the meiofaunal abundance, the community structure and the taxa richness are all indistinguishable between the farm sediments and the controls. These results show that mussel farming in the investigated system is eco-sustainable and does not significantly alter the coastal marine ecosystem, both in terms of the functioning and the trophic state. The battery of indicators selected in this study represents a useful tool for the monitoring of the potential ecological impact of mussel farms, towards guaranteeing the sustainable development of aquacultures in shallow coastal environments. 相似文献
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Cristina Ortega Helena M. Solo-Gabriele Amir Abdelzaher Mary Wright Yang Deng Lillian M. Stark 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(9):1374-1381
The objective of this study was to evaluate whether indicator microbes and physical–chemical parameters were correlated with pathogens within a tidally influenced Estuary. Measurements included the analysis of physical–chemical parameters (pH, salinity, temperature, and turbidity), measurements of bacterial indicators (enterococci, fecal coliform, Escherichia coli, and total coliform), viral indicators (somatic and MS2 coliphage), viral pathogens (enterovirus by culture), and protozoan pathogens (Cryptosporidium and Giardia). All pathogen results were negative with the exception of one sample which tested positive for culturable reovirus (8.5 MPN/100 L). Notable physical–chemical parameters for this sample included low salinity (<1 ppt) and high water temperature (31 °C). Indicator bacteria and indicator virus levels for this sample were within average values typically measured within the study site and were low in comparison with levels observed in other freshwater environments. Overall results suggest that high levels of bacterial and viral indicators were associated with low salinity sites. 相似文献
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A.G. Carroll R. Przeslawski A. Duncan M. Gunning B. Bruce 《Marine pollution bulletin》2017,114(1):9-24
Marine seismic surveys produce high intensity, low-frequency impulsive sounds at regular intervals, with most sound produced between 10 and 300 Hz. Offshore seismic surveys have long been considered to be disruptive to fisheries, but there are few ecological studies that target commercially important species, particularly invertebrates. This review aims to summarise scientific studies investigating the impacts of low-frequency sound on marine fish and invertebrates, as well as to critically evaluate how such studies may apply to field populations exposed to seismic operations. We focus on marine seismic surveys due to their associated unique sound properties (i.e. acute, low-frequency, mobile source locations), as well as fish and invertebrates due to the commercial value of many species in these groups. The main challenges of seismic impact research are the translation of laboratory results to field populations over a range of sound exposure scenarios and the lack of sound exposure standardisation which hinders the identification of response thresholds. An integrated multidisciplinary approach to manipulative and in situ studies is the most effective way to establish impact thresholds in the context of realistic exposure levels, but if that is not practical the limitations of each approach must be carefully considered. 相似文献
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Paolo Tomassetti Emma Persia Isabel Mercatali Danilo Vani Veronica Marussso Salvatore Porrello 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(4):533-541
The effects of solid organic wastes from a marine fish farm on sediment was tested using macrobenthic fauna as biological indicators. Impact on benthic fauna was evaluated in the vicinity of a fish farm in the Tyrrhenian Sea (Western Mediterranean) between July 2001 and October 2002. Changes in benthic community structure were investigated using multivariate, distributional and univariate analyses (diversity indices, AMBI and M-AMBI). The results showed sharp disturbance of assemblages under the cages and no effects in the area more than 25 m from the cages. Sediment alterations were related to an increase in farmed biomass and its wastes, as well as to low current speed that allowed accumulation of organic matter on the sea floor. It was possible to follow the ecological succession from slightly altered assemblages to heavily polluted ones in the very short period of a single fish fattening cycle (15 months). 相似文献
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DiDonato GT Stewart JR Sanger DM Robinson BJ Thompson BC Holland AF Van Dolah RF 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(1):97-106
Population growth along the southeastern United States coast has precipitated the conversion of forested watersheds to suburban and urban ones. This study sampled creeks representing forested, suburban, and urban watersheds along a longitudinal gradient for indicators of water quality, including traditional indicator bacteria (fecal coliforms and enterococci) and alternative viral indicators (male-specific and somatic coliphages). Tested microorganisms were generally distributed with highest concentrations in creek headwaters and in more developed watersheds. The headwaters also showed the strongest predictive relationship between indicator concentrations and urbanization as measured by impervious cover. A seasonal pattern was observed for indicator bacteria but not for indicator viruses. Coliphage typing indicated the likely source of contamination was nonhuman. Results suggest that headwater creeks can serve as sentinel habitat, signaling early warning of public health concerns from land-based anthropogenic activities. This study also implies the potential to eventually forecast indicator concentrations under land use change scenarios. 相似文献
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Paola Tuccimei Michele Soligo Joaquin Ginés Angel Ginés Joan Fornós Jan Kramers Igor Maria Villa 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(7):782-790
Phreatic overgrowths on speleothems (POS) are carbonate formations deposited at the water table of caves in unique karstic coastal settings having morphologies that can be directly related to sea level at the time of formation. The U‐Th ages of calcite and aragonite overgrowths collected from the modern water table in coastal caves on Mallorca (Cova de Cala Varques A and Cova des Pas de Vallgornera) were determined using high‐precision MC‐ICPMS techniques. U‐Th ages indicate that phreatic carbonate deposition occurred between ca 2·8 and at least 0·6 ka BP and are in accord with an archeologically estimated age of 3·7–3·0 ka BP for a drowned prehistoric construction at a depth of 1 m below current sea level in a cave from the same area. Speleothem δ13C and δ18O and chemical composition of cave pools provide supportive evidence that POS reflect mixing between seawater and brackish water table. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献