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1.
Twenty years of paleoseismology in Italy   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Italy has one of the most complete and historically extensive seismic catalogues in the World due to a unique and uninterrupted flow of written sources that have narrated its seismic history since about the end of the Iron Age. Seismic hazard studies have therefore always been mainly based upon this huge mass of data. Nevertheless, the Italian catalogue probably “lacks” many M ≥ 6.5 events, the seismogenetic structures responsible for which are characterized by recurrence times that are longer than the time span covered by our historical sources. For these reasons, and as in other countries, earthquake data that in Italy have been derived from paleoseismological studies should finally become a necessary ingredient in seismic risk assessment. Indeed, over the past 20 years, some hundred trenches have been excavated, supplying reliable and conclusive data on the recent activities of many faults. Through to many robust datings of surface fault events, these studies have provided the ages of several unknown or poorly known M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes. Here, we summarize the state of the art of paleoseismology in Italy, and present a first catalogue of 56 paleoearthquakes (PCI) that occurred mainly in the past 6 kyr. The PCI integrates the historical/instrumental seismic catalogue, and extends it beyond the recurrence time of the seismogenetic faults (2000 ± 1000 yr). We feel confident that the use of the PCI will enhance future probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, and thus contribute to more reliable seismic risk mitigation programs.  相似文献   

2.
The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults.  相似文献   

3.
Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate 4 and the upper bound magnitudem 1 are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.  相似文献   

4.
Northeast India is one of the most highly seismically active regions in the world with more than seven earthquakes on an average per year of magnitude 5.0 and above. Reliable seismic hazard assessment could provide the necessary design inputs for earthquake resistant design of structures in this region. In this study, deterministic as well as probabilistic methods have been attempted for seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states at bedrock level condition. An updated earthquake catalogue was collected from various national and international seismological agencies for the period from 1731 to 2011. The homogenization, declustering and data completeness analysis of events have been carried out before hazard evaluation. Seismicity parameters have been estimated using G–R relationship for each source zone. Based on the seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major subzones. Region specific correlations were used for magnitude conversion for homogenization of earthquake size. Ground motion equations (Atkinson and Boore 2003; Gupta 2010) were validated with the observed PGA (peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. In this study, the hazard is estimated using linear sources, identified in and around the study area. Results are presented in the form of PGA using both DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) and PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) with 2 and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, and spectral acceleration (T = 0. 2 s, 1.0 s) for both the states (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years). The results are important to provide inputs for planning risk reduction strategies, for developing risk acceptance criteria and financial analysis for possible damages in the study area with a comprehensive analysis and higher resolution hazard mapping.  相似文献   

5.
We investigated the Coulomb stress changes in the active faults surrounding a moderate‐magnitude normal‐faulting earthquake (2009 L'Aquila, Mw 6.3) and the associated variations in the expected ground motion on regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. We show that the static stress variations can locally increase the seismic hazard by modifying the expected mean recurrence time on neighbouring faults by up to ~290 years, with associated variations in the probability of occurrence of the maximum expected earthquake of up to ~2%. Our findings suggest that the increase in seismic hazard on neighbouring faults following moderate‐magnitude earthquakes is probably not sufficient to necessitate systematic upgrades of regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps, but must be considered to better address and schedule strategies for local‐scale mitigation of seismic risk.  相似文献   

6.
Mäntyniemi  P.  Mârza  V.  Kijko  A.  Retief  P. 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(3):371-385
In this paper we apply a probabilistic methodology to map specific seismic hazard induced by the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone, which represents the uttermost earthquake danger to Romania as well as its surroundings. The procedure is especially suitable for the estimation of seismic hazard at an individual site, and seismic hazard maps can be created by applying it repeatedly to grid points covering larger areas. It allows the use of earthquake catalogues with incompletely reported historical and complete instrumental parts. When applying themethodology, special attention was given to the effect of hypocentral depth and the variation of attenuation according to azimuth. Hazard maps specifying a 10% chance of exceedance of the given peak ground acceleration value for an exposure time of 50 years were prepared for three different characteristic depths of earthquakes in the Vrancea area. These maps represent a new realistic contribution to the mitigation of the earthquake risk caused by the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone in terms of: (1) input data (consistent, reliable, and the most complete earthquake catalogue), (2) appropriate and specific attenuation relationships (considering both azimuthal and depth effects); and (3) a new and versatile methodology.  相似文献   

7.
The preparation of the preliminary seismic hazard maps of the territory of Slovenia has been based on an expansion of the basic approach laid out by Cornell in 1968. Three seismic source models were prepared. Two of them are based mainly on the earthquake catalogue using the Poissonian probability model. A map of seismic energy release and a map of earthquake epicenter density are used to delineate seismic sources in these models. The geometry of the third model which is based on a rough estimate of seismotectonic setting is taken from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of a nuclear power plant in Slovenia. Published ground motion attenuation models based on strong motion records of recent strong earthquakes in Italy are used. Test maps for variable and uniform b-values are presented. The computer program, Seisrisk III, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is used.  相似文献   

8.
Öncel  A. O.  Alptekin  Ö. 《Natural Hazards》1999,19(1):1-11
In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (m, b and Mmax) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (Mmax, the seismic activity rate (m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively.  相似文献   

9.
A simplified tectonic scheme for hazard purposes was recently adopted for northeastern Italy, introducing large generalized seismogenic areas containing systems of complex geometry faults. This scheme considers only major faults with documented seismic activity. In the present analysis, a different tectonic scheme, with linear elements as seismogenic sources, is presented. The assessment of the regional seismic hazard is done with the fault rupture model, its most important advantage being the recognition that the length of fault rupture during an earthquake is an important consideration in probabilistic calculations of seismic hazard. Moreover, some structures with no associated seismicity but with notable neotectonic activity are considered, and their contribution to the results investigated. Important uncertainties such as those in the maximum possible magnitude of future earthquakes, in the location of the fault, in the focal depth, and in the attenuation law are accounted for in the calculations and their influence studied. The results identify a seismic belt running from Lake Garda to Friuli and along the Yugoslav coast and are very similar to those already known for Friuli, with the largest values corresponding to the zone around Gemona. Some slight differences in the shape of the areas of equal acceleration are probably due to the delineation of the seismic sources of the proposed model. For a cautious elaboration, some neotectonic lines without present seismicity were added into the fault model. Their contribution is negligible in the areas of highest acceleration, but increases remarkably in the areas where acceleration is not expected to exceed the medium values.  相似文献   

10.
A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at Kancheepuram in Southern India was carried out with the scope of defining the seismic input for the vulnerability assessment of historical and monumental structures at the site, in terms of horizontal Uniform Hazard Spectra and a suite of spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms to perform time-history analysis. The standard Cornell?CMcGuire and a zone-free approach have been used for hazard computations after the compilation of a composite earthquake catalogue for Kancheepuram. Epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard was addressed within a logic-tree framework. Deaggregation of the seismic hazard for the peak ground acceleration shows low seismicity at Kancheepuram controlled by weak-to-moderate earthquakes with sources located at short distances from the archaeological site. Suites of natural accelerograms recorded on rock have been selected by imposing a custom-defined compatibility criterion with the probabilistic spectra. The site of Kancheepuram is characterized by a seismicity controlled by weak-to-moderate earthquakes with sources at short distances from the site, the PGA expected for 475- and 2,475-year return period are, respectively, 0.075 and 0.132?g. The Indian code-defined spectra (DBE and MCE) tend to underestimate spectral ordinates at low periods. On the other hand, the PGA are comparable and the spectral ordinates for longer periods from the probabilistic study are significantly lower.  相似文献   

11.
We test the sensitivity of seismic hazard to three fault source models for the northwestern portion of Gujarat, India. The models incorporate different characteristic earthquake magnitudes on three faults with individual recurrence intervals of either 800 or 1600 years. These recurrence intervals imply that large earthquakes occur on one of these faults every 266–533 years, similar to the rate of historic large earthquakes in this region during the past two centuries and for earthquakes in intraplate environments like the New Madrid region in the central United States. If one assumes a recurrence interval of 800 years for large earthquakes on each of three local faults, the peak ground accelerations (PGA; horizontal) and 1-Hz spectral acceleration ground motions (5% damping) are greater than 1 g over a broad region for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years' hazard level. These probabilistic PGAs at this hazard level are similar to median deterministic ground motions. The PGAs for 10% in 50 years' hazard level are considerably lower, generally ranging between 0.2 g and 0.7 g across northwestern Gujarat. Ground motions calculated from our models that consider fault interevent times of 800 years are considerably higher than other published models even though they imply similar recurrence intervals. These higher ground motions are mainly caused by the application of intraplate attenuation relations, which account for less severe attenuation of seismic waves when compared to the crustal interplate relations used in these previous studies. For sites in Bhuj and Ahmedabad, magnitude (M) 7 3/4 earthquakes contribute most to the PGA and the 0.2- and 1-s spectral acceleration ground motion maps at the two considered hazard levels.  相似文献   

12.
We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.  相似文献   


13.
A first generation of probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the Italian country are presented. They are based on seismogenic zoning deriving from a kinematic model of the structural tectonic units and on an earthquake catalogue with the foreshock and aftershock events filtered out. The following ground motion parameters have been investigated and mapped using attenuation equations based on strong-motion recordings of Italian earthquakes: peak ground acceleration and velocity; Arias intensity; strong motion duration; and the pseudovelocity and pseudoacceleration spectral values at 14 fixed frequencies both for the vertical and the largest horizontal component. A Poissonian model of earthquake occurrence is assumed as a default and the hazard maps are presented in terms of ground motion values expected to be exceeded at a 10% probability level in 50 years (return period 475 years) according to the requirement of Eurocode 8 for the seismic classification of national territories, as well as in terms of exceedance probabilities of selected ground motion values. Finally, as a tentative study, the use of hybrid methods (implementing both seismogenic zones and structures), renewal processes (including earthquake forecasting) and the influence of site effects (as the basis for the planning of earthquake scenarios) were explored.  相似文献   

14.
Intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region occur in response to stress generation due to descending lithosphere beneath the southeastern Carpathians. In this article, tectonic stress and seismicity are analyzed in the region on the basis of a vast body of observations. We show a correlation between the location of intermediate-depth earthquakes and the predicted localization of maximum shear stress in the lithosphere. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the region is presented in terms of various ground motion parameters on the utilization of Fourier amplitude spectra used in engineering practice and risk assessment (peak ground acceleration, response spectra amplitude, and seismic intensity). We review the PSHA carried out in the region, and present new PSHA results for the eastern and southern parts of Romania. Our seismic hazard assessment is based on the information about the features of earthquake ground motion excitation, seismic wave propagation (attenuation), and site effect in the region. Spectral models and characteristics of site-response on earthquake ground motions are obtained from the regional ground motion data including several hundred records of small and large earthquakes. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are consistent with the features of observed earthquake effects in the southeastern Carpathians and show that geological factors play an important part in the distribution of the earthquake ground motion parameters.  相似文献   

15.
A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the seismichazard of Adassiya dam site on the Yarmouk river in Jordan. A line source model developedby McGuire (1978) is used in this study. An updated earthquake catalogue coveringthe period from 1 A.D. to 1996 A.D. is used for this purpose. This catalogue includesall earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and adjacent areas, more specifically between latitudes27.0°–35.5°N and longitudes 32.0°–39.0°E.Nine distinct seismic sources of potential seismic activitiesare identified. The seismic hazard parameters are determined using the method suggested by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989).The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is selected as a measure of ground motion severity. Esteva (1974) attenuation relationship is used in evaluating PGA values at each dam site. Analysis is carried out for 50%, 90%, and 95% probability that is not being exceeded in a life time of 50, 100, and 200 years.Results of analysis indicate that PGA values at the dam site are as follows:[] Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) (50% probabilityof non-exceedance for a design life of 100 years – corresponding to a return period of 145 years) is 133.6 cm/sec2.[] An earthquake with 90% probability of non-exceedancefor a design life of 50 years – corresponding to a return period of 475 years is 214.9 cm/sec2.[] Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) (Return period of900 years) is 283.0 cm/sec2.Strong motion acceleration time history of these earthquakes are givenbased on strong motion records of the November 1995 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake.Local site effect analysis for Adassiya Dam site using SHAKE program showed no amplification. Normalized site-specific acceleration response spectra for OBE and MCE design earthquakes is also given.  相似文献   

16.
This study presents a way to handle historical earthquakes whose parameters are based on sparse documentary materials. It is recommended that discrete earthquake scenarios should be constructed in such cases. Scenarios are possible sets of parameters for a past earthquake, reconstructed on the basis of the macroseismic data available. A probability value is to be attached to each of them using expert judgment. This means that uncertainties associated with historical earthquakes become discrete instead of continuous. Assigning a probability value to each scenario and including alternative solutions in the catalogue makes decision-making more transparent. The current state of the art of the research on a given historical earthquake is documented. It is illustrated how seismic histories of a given place are altered when different scenarios of historical key earthquakes are taken into account. The seismic histories consequently have different probabilities. The choice of an appropriate seismic history could be governed by the need: For example, for a high-risk facility, the high-intensity histories have to be considered. Different earthquake scenarios included in the catalogue would permit to evaluate also the uncertainty of the activity rate and to construct the final logic tree.  相似文献   

17.
Kijko  A.  Retief  S. J. P.  Graham  G. 《Natural Hazards》2002,26(2):175-201
In this part of our study the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Tulbagh was performed. The applied procedure is parametric and consists essentially of two steps. The first step is applicable to the area in the vicinity of Tulbagh and requires an estimation of the area-specific parameters, which, in this case, is the mean seismic activity rate, , the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, b, and the maximum regional magnitude, mmax. The second step is applicable to the Tulbagh site, and consists of parameters of distribution of amplitude of the selected ground motion parameter. The current application of the procedure provides an assessment of the PSHA in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA). The procedure permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The historical part of the catalogue only contains the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specified threshold of magnitude. In the analysis, the uncertainty in the determination of the earthquake was taken into account by incorporation of the concept of `apparent magnitude'. The PSHA technique has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at individual sites without the subjective judgement involved in the definition of seismic source zones, when the specific active faults have not been mapped or identified, and where the causes of seismicity are not well understood. The results of the hazard assessment are expressed as probabilities that specified values of PGA will be exceeded during the chosen time intervals, and similarly for the spectral accelerations. A worst case scenario sketches the possibility of a maximum PGA of 0.30g. The results of the hazard assessment can be used as input to a seismic risk assessment.  相似文献   

18.
High and Aswan Dams Authority (HADA) proposed a plan aiming at constructing a rockfill dam in the Kalabsha area, about 60 km south of Aswan High Dam. The aim of this dam is to restrain the overflow of water to the Kalabsha Valley for keeping one billion cubic meters from being lost due to seepage and evaporation. The safety of dams during earthquakes is extremely important because failure of such a structure may have disastrous consequences on life and property. Therefore, different factors were considered as part of a site assessment. Five seismic source zones, close enough to the site to give rise to potentially damaging earthquake ground motions, were identified. Seven active faults that have the potential for producing significant earthquakes and that pass through or near the dam site were also identified. The earthquake loading represented by ground motions at the site was evaluated. Probabilistic seismic hazard procedures were used for assessing the earthquake loading at six individual sites using Area-and Line-Source Models (ASM & LSM). The ASM is based on current observed seismicity, whereas the LSM is based on geological slip rates. The output represents the expected acceleration amplitude with 90 percent probability of not being exceeded in exposure times of 20, 50, and 100 years. The results from the two models appear to be different, the expected ground motions from ASM were twice as high as expected from LSM. This difference is due to the load of the Aswan reservoir (Nasser Lake) triggering earthquakes on those parts of the faults that lie under the lake at Kalabsha area. The hazard at the selected sites is given by the hazard curve that is represented by the relationship between the peak ground acceleration and its annual exceedance probability. By comparing the curves for the six individual sites for the same source model, it can be concluded that the potential ground acceleration level for all the sites is almost the same. Considering the mean results from the two models, the annual exceedance probability of the expected ground acceleration from ASM is approximately ten times higher than the annual exceedance probability from LSM.Since ASM is based on current seismicity, it is more appropriate forrepresenting the actual hazard for the dam site.  相似文献   

19.
Generally the seismic hazard of an area of interest is considered independent of time. However, its seismic risk or vulnerability, respectively, increases with the population and developing state of economy of the area. Therefore, many areas of moderate seismic hazard gain increasing importance with respect to seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, these areas mostly have a weak earthquake database, i.e., they are characterised by relative low seismicity and uncertain information concerning historical earthquakes. In a case study for Eastern Thuringia (Germany), acting as example for similar places in the world, seismic hazard is estimated using the probabilistic approach. Because of the lack of earthquakes occurring in the recent past, mainly historical earthquakes have to be used. But for these the actual earthquake sources or active faults, needed for the analysis, are imprecisely known. Therefore, the earthquake locations are represented by areal sources, a common practice. The definition of these sources is performed carefully, because their geometrical shape and size (apart from the earthquake occurrence model) influence the results significantly. Using analysis tools such as density maps of earthquake epicentres, seismic strain and energy release support this. Oversizing of areal sources leads to underestimation of seismic hazard and should therefore be avoided. Large location errors of historical earthquakes on the other hand are represented by several alternative areal sources with final superimposition of the different results. In a very similar way information known from macroseismic observations interpreted as source rather than as site effects are taken into account in order to achieve a seismic hazard assessment as realistic as possible. In very local cases the meaning of source effects exceeds those of site effects very likely. The influence of attenuation parameter variations on the result of estimated local seismic hazard is relatively low. Generally, the results obtained by the seismic hazard assessment coincide well with macroseismic observations from the thoroughly investigated largest earthquake in the region.  相似文献   

20.
A. Golara 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):567-577
Seismic hazard maps are widely used for engineering design, land-use planning, and disaster mitigation. The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran with regard to the specification of Iranian high-pressure gas network is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using the historical and new earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity, and seismic zone models in Iran. The map displays the probabilistic estimates of peak ground acceleration for the return period of 2,475 year (2 % probability in 50 years). The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of risk map, the estimation of insurance premiums, finding best paths for future pipelines, planning, and relocating lifeline facilities especially for interconnected infrastructures.  相似文献   

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