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1.
建立高效合理的区域滑坡灾害降雨预警模型对滑坡防治具有重要意义.然而以往的研究多侧重于临滑预警,对蠕变型滑坡在强降雨工况下的短暂加速变形的预警研究还有待深入.以三峡库区云阳县域内滑坡为例,首先根据滑坡地表位移监测数据的特点对统计样本进行合理筛选.再通过降雨因子与滑坡发生的相关性分析以及对滑坡在降雨条件下位移变化情况的数值模拟,确定了适用于不同时间阶段的降雨统计变量.然后将考虑了滑坡规模特征的滑坡位移比（累计位移与滑坡纵长之比）作为变形指标,分时段统计滑坡地表位移监测数据与历史降雨信息,建立了日降雨数据与月位移数据的对应关系,得到了可用于确定降雨量阈值的位移比模型,并获得了云阳县蠕变型滑坡的五级预警分区.最后分别选用研究区滑坡险情实例、长年位移监测数据及极端降雨事件对模型预警效果进行检验.结果显示基于专业监测数据的位移比模型的滑坡降雨预警结果与实际情况相符,可为蠕变型滑坡的预警预报提供依据.   相似文献   

2.
As the traditional displacement value of a landslide is very easy to be affected by rainfall, it is very difficult to establish a stable and uniform destabilized criterion of landslide in terms of the displacement value. So, it determines that establishment of an effective and stable dynamic displacement prediction parameter is very important in forecast of the debris landslides caused by rainfall. In order to determine this kind of prediction parameter, this paper first completes analysis on the relationship between the destabilized mechanism of the debris landslide and the rainfall dynamic rules. The relationship above shows that the periodical change value of rainfall can be taken as the dynamic unload–load parameter (ULP) of landslide, and the homologous change value of mensal landslide displacement can be taken as the stability displacement response parameter (DRP). Then, on the basis of the relationship between the ULP and the stability DRP of this kind of landslide, the unload–load displacement response ratio (ULDRR) appraisal parameter of this kind of landslides is established in this paper. Finally, the stability of typical debris landslides in China has been systematically studied by means of ULDRR appraisal parameter and model. We find that the ULDRR values conform to the evolutional rule of slope deformation and instability. So, it has been proved that the ULDRR parameter and the appraisal model are suitable and effective for prediction and evaluation of stability and evolution rule of rainfall-induced landslides.  相似文献   

3.
Many large landslides in the crystalline schist region of Shikoku Island, Japan, are susceptible to intense rainfall. Through the use of on-site monitoring systems, the activity of landslides and their meteorological triggers can be assessed. Continuous high-intensity rainfall was found to play a key role in provoking landslide movement. This paper investigates the influence of intense rainfall on the activity of crystalline schist landslides by examining rainfall and displacement of four typical landslides. By defining and calculating the effective rainfall and the relative landslide displacement, the relationship between intense rainfall and rainfall-induced landslide movement was analysed. Results indicate that the intense rainfall-induced landslide movement can be correlated with the effective rainfall. From these results, two rainfall thresholds were identified for the landslide risk management of Shikoku Island.  相似文献   

4.
牵引式滑坡在山区公路滑坡中占有相当的比重,其治理工程往往耗资巨大、环境破坏严重。针对某高速公路牵引式滑坡,通过地质调查、变形迹象分析、岩土体应力-应变分析及数值模拟等方法,指出具体破坏机制为：（1）坡脚开挖致使阻滑关键块体缺失,应力集中导致剪切应变软化;（2）地表降水与地下水对岩土体物理力学性能的改造;（3）滑体变形不协调,导致拉裂缝产生,滑坡后缘得以继续向后扩展。目前监测表明,已施工的组合加固措施效果良好。最后讨论挖方引起的牵引式滑坡的工程地质特征,对牵引式滑坡进行评价应坚持安全系数分区原则,滑坡总体加固应按安全系数控制,同时对后缘加固按位移控制。  相似文献   

5.
This paper deals with the landslides that are reactivated by a groundwater level increase owing to rainfall. These landslides are usually characterized by low displacement rate with deformations essentially concentrated within a narrow shear zone above which the unstable soil mass moves like a rigid body (i.e., with a horizontal displacement profile that is essentially constant with depth). In view of this evidence, a new method based on a simple sliding block model is proposed in the present study for a preliminary evaluation of landslide mobility. Unlike other existing methods that provide an evaluation of landslide mobility on the basis of groundwater level measurements, the present method directly relates landslide movements to rain recordings. This possibility constitutes a significant advantage from a practical viewpoint because it allows future displacement scenarios to be predicted from expected rainfall scenarios. In addition, the present method requires a limited number of parameters as input data, many of which can be obtained from conventional geotechnical tests. To evaluate the other parameters involved, an efficient calibration procedure is also proposed. Four case studies documented in the literature are analyzed to assess the capability of the present method to reproduce the main features of the slope response to rainfall. In all these case studies, both groundwater level variations and landslide displacements observed in field are well approximated by the method.  相似文献   

6.
强降雨可诱发新近纪软岩质滑坡滑移变形。1955年至今,降雨在陕西宝鸡诱发超过十起大型滑坡灾害。2011年9月19日,宝鸡市区72 h内的降雨量达到332 mm,北坡金鼎寺、簸箕山与高家崖滑坡出现裂缝,威胁市区居民安全。为分析滑坡的变形机制与降雨触发的滑体内地下水位的波动关系,2012—2015年,开展了降雨量、地下水位、孔隙水压力、滑坡应力与位移等物理量的实时监测,统计分析了它们的频率、活动强度及累积变化规律,提出了滑坡的位移扩展模型。研究显示:(1)地下水的活动会影响新近纪软岩质滑坡的变形,但降雨量、地下水位、孔隙水压力、滑坡体应力与位移等物理量变化机制有差异,地下水位、孔隙水压力呈周期性变化,滑坡体的应力、位移的变化具有累积效应;(2)宝鸡市北坡滑坡运动变形具有蠕变、快速滑移两个阶段。降雨会触发的滑坡体各物理量出现加速变化,地下水位波动幅度为0.27~1m,孔隙水压力的变化幅度为10kPa,滑体浅层的水平应力变化幅度为5.6kPa;(3)在判断降雨能否诱发滑坡快速滑移过程中,既需分析滑体应力、位移变化的累积效应,又需分析新近纪软岩质滑带的摩擦破坏机制。  相似文献   

7.
Rainfall-induced landslides are a significant hazard in many areas of loess-covered terrain in Northwest China. To investigate the response of a loess landslide to rainfall, a series of artificial rainfall experiments were conducted on a natural loess slope, located in the Bailong River Basin, in southern Gansu Province. The slope was instrumented to measure surface runoff, pore water pressure, soil water content, earth pressure, displacement, and rainfall. The hydrological response was also characterized by time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography. The results show that most of the rainfall infiltrated into the loess landslide, and that the pore water pressure and water content responded rapidly to simulated rainfall events. This indicates that rainfall infiltration on the loess landslide was significantly affected by preferential flow through fissures and macropores. Different patterns of pore water pressure and water content variations were determined by the antecedent soil moisture conditions, and by the balance between water recharge and drainage in the corresponding sections. We observed three stages of changing pore water pressure and displacement within the loess landslide during the artificial rainfall events: Increases in pore water pressure initiated movement on the slope, acceleration in movement resulting in a rapid decrease in pore water pressure, and attainment of a steady state. We infer that a negative pore water pressure feedback process may have occurred in response to shear-induced dilation of material as the slope movement accelerated. The process of shear dilatant strengthening may explain the phenomenon of semi-continuous movement of the loess landslide. Shear dilatant strengthening, caused by intermittent or continuous rainfall over long periods, can occur without triggering rapid slope failure.  相似文献   

8.
Extreme heavy rainfall due to Typhoon Talas on September 2–4, 2011 in the Kii Peninsula, Japan, triggered numerous floods and landslides. This study investigates the mechanism and the entire process of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides forming two massive dams in the Kuridaira and Akatani valleys, respectively. The mechanism of the rapid deep-seated landslides is examined through a series of laboratory experiments on samples from sliding surfaces by using undrained high-stress dynamic-loading ring-shear apparatus. The test results indicate that the failure of samples is triggered by excess pore water pressure generation under a shear displacement from 2 to 7 mm with a pore pressure ratio ranging from 0.33 to 0.37. The rapid movement of landslides is mainly attributed to high mobility due to the liquefaction behavior of both sandstone-rich and shale samples. Geomorphic settings and landslide mobility are major contributing factors to the dam formation. Additionally, shear displacement control tests show that a certain amount of shear displacement between 2 and 7 mm along the sliding surfaces of the gravitationally deformed slopes might have led to the failures. Importantly, computer simulation with LS-RAPID software using input parameters obtained from physical experiments is employed to interpret the entire formation process of the abovementioned two landslide dams. The simulation results are examined in accordance with the observed on-site geomorphic features and recorded data to explain the possibility of sliding processes. The results further point out that local failures are initiated from the lower middle part of the landslide bodies where the geological boundary exists. This condition most probably influences the landslide initiation in the two case studies. This research is therefore helpful for hazard assessment of slopes that are susceptible to deep-seated landslides and other sequential processes in areas with geology and geomorphology similar to that of the Kii Peninsula.  相似文献   

9.
李高  谭建民  王世梅  林旭  陈勇  王力  郭飞 《地学前缘》2021,28(6):283-294
降雨量和位移是当前降雨型滑坡监测预警最常用的指标。然而,降雨量和位移监测结果只能反映降雨作用下滑坡的变形情况,不能揭示滑坡内在物理力学性状对降雨的响应。因此,除降雨量和位移监测之外,建立包括体积含水率、基质吸力等反映滑坡动态演化过程的关键指标监测体系必将成为今后更真实地把握滑坡内在演化趋势、更准确地建立滑坡综合预警判据的最有效手段。笔者对赣南地区典型降雨型滑坡进行了多指标监测及综合预警示范研究。结果表明:(1)在降雨条件下滑坡土体内部体积含水率、基质吸力和温度等多指标均产生有规律的动态响应;(2)随着降雨的持续,滑体体积含水率与基质吸力的变化均具有显著的滞后现象;(3)体积含水率和基质吸力变化速率与滑体位移具有显著的正相关性;(4)滑体温度分布变化规律受大气温度和体积含水率的共同影响。以实测数据的滑坡稳定性分析为基准,在考虑实际降雨入渗深度与滑坡稳定性的关联度上,建立了包括日降雨量、体积含水率增加速率、基质吸力减小速率以及位移速度多元指标预警方法体系,提出了基于关键指标综合预警体系及确定方法,旨在为降雨滑坡准确预警提供新模式。  相似文献   

10.
日本四国地区分布有大量具有独特地质条件和活动特征的结晶片岩滑坡。长期的实地观测结果表明,季节性的集中降雨是影响此类滑坡活动的主要因素。文章基于对此类滑坡活动观测资料和降雨资料的综合分析,阐述了结晶片岩滑坡的活动特点以及集中降雨对其的影响作用。通过对有效雨量和滑坡位移等反映降雨影响和滑坡活动状况参数的分析,揭示了集中降雨与滑坡活动之间的关系,并且确定了对该地区滑坡活动产生影响的降雨特征,为此类滑坡灾害的防治与管理提供了依据和评价指标。  相似文献   

11.
库区滑坡失稳每年不同程度影响区内人民生活和生产安全,滑坡位移精准预测对于灾害风险预警及防灾减灾十分重要。常规的位移预测方法未充分考虑降雨、库水位波动等诱发因素对滑坡变形的时滞效应,无法精确识别滞后天数及各因素的影响程度,制约了预测精度的提高。本文以三峡库区新铺滑坡为例,根据2021年度的位移监测与水文气象数据集,利用皮尔逊相关系数法定量描述了山坡尺度上降雨、库水位波动对滑坡变形的时滞效应,结合BP神经网络建立了一种考虑时滞效应的滑坡位移预测模型。分析结果表明:在山坡尺度上,库水位波动对地表变形的时滞效应明显,滞后时间呈现出从近岸向远岸逐渐增加的规律;降雨量对地表变形的时滞效应较弱,在山坡尺度上呈现相关度不高、滞后天数较短的规律;与未考虑时滞因素的模型相比,本研究中的滑坡位移预测模型拟合优度提升了55.77%,均方根误差降低了31.60%,模型预测精度显著提高。研究成果一定程度上揭示了特大型库区滑坡的变形机理,并为同类滑坡的位移精准预测提供了参考依据。  相似文献   

12.
For the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, the physically based model coupling the infinite slope stability analysis with the hydrological modeling in nearly saturated soil has commonly been used due to its simplicity. However, in that model the rainfall infiltration in unsaturated soil could not be reliably simulated because a linear diffusion-type Richards’ equation rather than the complete Richards’ equation was used. In addition, the effect of matric suction on the shear strength of soil was not actually considered. Therefore, except the shallow landslide in saturated soil due to groundwater table rise, the shallow landslide induced by the loss in unsaturated shear strength due to the dissipation of matric suction could not be reliably assessed. In this study, a physically based model capable of assessing shallow landslides in variably saturated soils is developed by adopting the complete Richards’ equation with the effect of slope angle in the rainfall infiltration modeling and using the extended Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion to describe the unsaturated shear strength in the soil failure modeling. The influence of rainfall intensity and duration on shallow landslide is investigated using the developed model. The result shows that the rainfall intensity and duration seem to have similar influence on shallow landslides respectively triggered by the increase of positive pore water pressure in saturated soil and induced by the dissipation of matric suction in unsaturated soil. The rainfall duration threshold decreases with the increase in rainfall intensity, but remains constant for large rainfall intensity.  相似文献   

13.
Landslides are a significant hazard in many parts of the world and represent an important geohazard in China. Rainfall is the primary triggering agent for landslides and often used for prediction slope failures. However, the relationship between rainfall and landslide occurrences is very complex. Great efforts have been made on the study of regional rainfall-induced landslide forecasting models in recent years; still, there is no commonly accepted method for rainfall-induced landslide prediction. In this paper, the quantitative antecedent soil water status (ASWS) model is applied to investigate the influence of daily and antecedent rainfall on the triggering of landslides and debris flows. The study area is Wudu County in Gansu Province, an area which exhibits frequent landslide occurrences. The results demonstrate a significant influence of high intensity rainfall events on landslide triggering. Still, antecedent rainfall conditions are very important and once a threshold of approximately 20 mm is exceeded, landslides and debris flows can occur even without additional rainfall. The study presented could also facilitate the implementation of a regional forecasting scheme once additional validation has been carried out.  相似文献   

14.
Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in June 2003, numerous preexisting landslides have been reactivated. This paper seeks to find the factors influencing landslide deformation and the relationship between displacement and fluctuation of the reservoir water level, while the displacement and the intensity of rainfall based on monitoring data; 6 years of monitoring were carried out on the Shiliushubao landslide, a old landslide, consisting of a deep-seated main block and two shallow blocks, with a volume of 1,180 × 104 m3 and located on the left bank of the Yangtze River, 66 km upstream of the Three Gorges dam. This landslide was reactivated by the impoundment and since then the landslide body has been experiencing persistent deformation with an observed maximum cumulative displacement of 8,598.5 mm up to December 2009. Based on the monitoring data, we analyzed the relationship between the fluctuation of the reservoir water level and displacement, rainfall and displacement, and found that the rainfall is the major factor influencing deformation for two shallow blocks and the displacement has a positive correlation with the variation of rainfall intensity. The fluctuation of the reservoir water level is the primary factor for main block, and the deformation rate has a negative correlation with the variation of reservoir water level, declined with the rise of the water level and increased with the drawdown of the water level.  相似文献   

15.
On Shikoku Island, which is one of the four main islands of Japan, a large number of large-scale crystalline schist landslides have been revealed and are being monitored by an observation system. Seasonal heavy rainfall is the most active meteorological factor that can threaten the stability of this kind of site-specific landslide. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the rainfall-related behavior of a typical crystalline schist landslide, the Zentoku landslide, by analyzing the precisely and continuously observed piezometric and movement data, a method was developed to quantitatively assess the effect of heavy rainfall on a large-scale landslide. The results indicated that heavy rainfall-induced landslide displacement shows good correlation with the variation of groundwater levels. Variations of groundwater level have been simulated with the use of a tank model. The simulation using this model permits the change in water levels for future rainfall events to be predicted. By combining the predicted results with the empirical relation between displacements and water levels, rainfall-induced landslide movement during extreme rainfall events can be estimated in advance. The effect of heavy rainfall on sliding behavior can be quantified in terms of the change in displacement. Thus warning information or advisories for the local residents can be provided.  相似文献   

16.
Frequent soil landslide events are recorded in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, making it necessary to investigate the failure mode of such riverside landslides. Geotechnical centrifugal test is considered to be the most realistic laboratory model, which can reconstruct the required geo-stress. In this study, the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorgers Reservoir area is selected for a scaled centrifugal model experiment, and a water pump system is employed to retain the rainfall condition. Using the techniques of digital photography and pore water pressure transducers, water level fluctuation is controlled, and multi-physical data are thus obtained, including the pore water pressure, earth pressure, surface displacement and deep displacement. The analysis results indicate that: Three stages were set in the test (waterflooding stage, rainfall stage and drainage stage). Seven transverse cracks with wide of 1–5 mm appeared during the model test, of which 3 cracks at the toe landslide were caused by reservoir water fluctuation, and the cracks at the middle and rear part were caused by rainfall. During rainfall process, the maximum displacement of landslide model reaches 3 cm. And the maximum deformation of the model exceeds 12 cm at the drainage stage. The failure process of the slope model can be divided into four stages: microcracks appearance and propagation stage, thrust-type failure stage, retrogressive failure stage, and holistic failure stage. When the thrust-type zone caused by rainfall was connected or even overlapped with the retrogressive failure zone caused by the drainage, the landslide would start, which displayed a typical composite failure pattern. The failure mode and deformation mechanism under the coupling actions of water level fluctuation and rainfall are revealed in the model test, which could appropriately guide for the analysis and evaluation of riverside landslides.  相似文献   

17.
Majority of landslides in the Indian sub-continent are triggered by rainfall. Several attempts in the global scenario have been made to establish rainfall thresholds in terms of intensity-duration and antecedent rainfall models on global, regional and local scales for the occurrence of landslides. However, in the context of the Indian Himalayas, the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences are not yet understood fully. Neither on regional scale nor on local scale, establishing such rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences in Indian Himalayas has yet been attempted. This paper presents an attempt towards deriving local rainfall thresholds for landslides based on daily rainfall data in and around Chamoli-Joshimath region of the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Around 128 landslides taken place in last 4 years from 2009 to 2012 have been studied to derive rainfall thresholds. Out of 128 landslides, however, rainfall events pertaining to 81 landslides were analysed to yield an empirical intensity–duration threshold for landslide occurrences. The rainfall threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the landslide triggering rainfall events is I?=?1.82 D ?0.23 (I?=?rainfall intensity in millimeters per hour and D?=?duration in hours). It is revealed that for rainfall events of shorter duration (≤24 h) with a rainfall intensity of 0.87 mm/h, the risk of landslide occurrence in this part of the terrain is expected to be high. Also, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was analysed by considering daily rainfall at failure and different period cumulative rainfall prior to failure considering all 128 landslides. It is observed that a minimum 10-day antecedent rainfall of 55 mm and a 20-day antecedent rainfall of 185 mm are required for the initiation of landslides in this area. These rainfall thresholds presented in this paper may be improved with the hourly rainfall data vis-à-vis landslide occurrences and also data of later years. However, these thresholds may be used in landslide warning systems for this particular region of the Garhwal Himalayas to guide the traffic and provide safety to the tourists travelling along this pilgrim route during monsoon seasons.  相似文献   

18.
高速远程地震黄土滑坡发生机制试验研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
1920年海原大地震触发了多处典型高速远程地震黄土滑坡,本文在对西吉党家岔滑坡进行野外调研的基础上,采集了具有代表性的滑带土作为试验样品,以1940年5月18日美国帝国谷强震记录作为波动输入,利用DPRI环剪试验机,对该滑坡的发生机制进行了一系列环剪试验研究。结果表明,地震发生时,坡体潜在滑面的滑带土在强震作用下发生的滑动面液化（Sliding surface liquefaction）现象是导致高速远程滑坡形成的一个重要因素。伴随着滑动面液化过程,滑体产生了逐渐增大的剪切位移及孔隙水压力（地震力作用结束瞬间已分别达到2.03m及104kPa）,并获得了较大的速度,为高速远程滑坡的发生提供了条件。  相似文献   

19.
近年来由于受极端强降雨天气的影响,宁镇地区山前缓坡发生多起中型-大型滑坡地质灾害,主要表现为间歇性蠕滑,规模较大,而滑移距离较小,一般小于30 m,该类滑坡严重威胁附近居民的生命和财产安全,造成巨大的经济损失和严重不良社会影响。为此,本文针对这一典型山前缓坡新型滑坡地质灾害,运用岩体结构控制论和优势面理论对其滑坡体地层结构及滑动机理进行研究,结果表明滑坡主要发生在山前缓坡地段,滑坡体具有特殊的地层结构及水文地质特性,受到强降雨作用时,在坡体内容易产生暂时性承压水,在其浮托力的作用下缓坡主要产生顶托破裂和剪切破坏,并随降雨产生间歇性蠕滑。  相似文献   

20.
缪海波  殷坤龙  王功辉 《岩土力学》2016,37(9):2645-2653
库岸深层老滑坡在季节性降雨和周期性库水位变动联合作用下往往表现出间歇性复活特征。在这一复活过程中,滑动期与间歇期交替出现,滑带土经历不同速率的剪切和不同时长的固结。从滑动期内残余强度的剪切速率效应、间歇期内峰值抗剪强度的恢复特征以及间歇期过渡到滑动期的孔隙水压力触发过程3个方面着手,建立了描述库岸深层老滑坡间歇性复活的动力学方程。塘角村1号滑坡滑带土试样的环剪试验结果显示：残余强度在较小速率范围内表现出负速率效应,而当剪切速率达到一定值后残余强度不再减小,且有微弱增长趋势;峰值强度在短时间内有较明显的恢复,但在较小位移后衰减至残余强度;孔隙水压力触发剪切破坏的发生滞后于所施加的水压力,这一滞后过程为孔隙水压力的扩散过程。基于试验成果,根据所建立的动力学方程,对库岸深层老滑坡间歇性复活的动力学机制进行了讨论,从而为此类滑坡的预测和防灾减灾提供有价值的参考。  相似文献   

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