共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Automatic Short-Term Solar Flare Prediction Using Machine Learning and Sunspot Associations 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
In this paper, a machine-learning-based system that could provide automated short-term solar flare prediction is presented.
This system accepts two sets of inputs: McIntosh classification of sunspot groups and solar cycle data. In order to establish
a correlation between solar flares and sunspot groups, the system explores the publicly available solar catalogues from the
National Geophysical Data Center to associate sunspots with their corresponding flares based on their timing and NOAA numbers.
The McIntosh classification for every relevant sunspot is extracted and converted to a numerical format that is suitable for
machine learning algorithms. Using this system we aim to predict whether a certain sunspot class at a certain time is likely
to produce a significant flare within six hours time and if so whether this flare is going to be an X or M flare. Machine
learning algorithms such as Cascade-Correlation Neural Networks (CCNNs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and Radial Basis Function
Networks (RBFN) are optimised and then compared to determine the learning algorithm that would provide the best prediction
performance. It is concluded that SVMs provide the best performance for predicting whether a McIntosh classified sunspot group
is going to flare or not but CCNNs are more capable of predicting the class of the flare to erupt. A hybrid system that combines
a SVM and a CCNN is suggested for future use. 相似文献
2.
The evolution of five bipolar sunspot groups during their disk passage leading to flares are analysed and studied using Kodaikanal Observatory photoheliogram and spectroheliogram data. The changes in the orientation angle observed in the spot groups show that sunspot proper motion plays an important role in introducing non-potential character to the field lines. This in turn develops shear and once the shear reaches a critical value, the flare eruption is triggered. The rotational motions in the sunspots are measured from the change in their orientation angle and are given as a measure of shear. The sunspots considered for analyses in the present study are not associated with any filament activity. 相似文献
3.
V. K. Verma 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2000,21(3-4):173-176
We report here a study of various solar activity phenomena occurring in both north and south hemispheres of the Sun during
solar cycles 8–23. In the study we have used sunspot data for the period 1832–1976, flare index data
for the period 1936-1993, Hα flare data 1993–1998 and solar active prominences data for the period 1957–1998.
Earlier Verma reported long-term cyclic period in N-S asymmetry and also that the N-S asymmetry of solar activity phenomena
during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 will be south dominated and the N-S asymmetry will shift to north hemisphere in solar
cycle 25. The present study shows that the N-S asymmetry during solar cycles 22 and 23 are southern dominated as suggested
by Verma. 相似文献
4.
G.S. Suryanarayana 《New Astronomy》2010,15(3):313-317
Solar activity, such as flares and CMEs, affect the interplanetary medium, and Earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, to understand the Space Weather, we need to understand the mechanisms of solar activity. Towards this end, we use 1135 events of solar Hα flares and the positional data of sunspots from the archive of Solar Geophysical Data (SGD) for the period January–April, 2000 and compute the abnormal rotation rates that lead to high flare productivity. We report that the occurrence of 5 or more flares in a day in association with a given sunspot group can be defined as high flare productivity and the sunspots that have an abnormal rotation rates of ～4–10 deg day?1 trigger high flare productivity. Further, in order to compare the flare productivity expressed as the strength of the flux emitted, especially the soft X-ray (SXR) flares in the frequency range of 1–8 Å, we compute the flare index of SXR flares and find that 8 out of 28 active regions used in this study satisfy the requirement for being flare productive. This enables us to conclude that the high rotation rates of sunspots are an important mechanism to understand the flare productivity, especially numerical flare productivity that includes flares of all class. 相似文献
5.
《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2017,(8)
We analyze sunspot rotation and magnetic transients in NOAA AR 11429 during two X-class(X5.4 and X1.3)flares using data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory.A large leading sunspot with positive magnetic polarity rotated counterclockwise.As expected,the rotation was significantly affected by the two flares.Magnetic transients induced by the flares were clearly evident in the sunspots with negative polarity.They were moving across the sunspots with speed of order 3-7 km s~(-1).Furthermore,the trend of magnetic flux evolution in these sunspots exhibited changes associated with the flares.These results may shed light on understanding the evolution of sunspots. 相似文献
6.
Neeraj Singh Bankoti Navin Chandra Joshi Seema Pande Bimal Pande Kavita Pandey 《New Astronomy》2010,15(6):561-568
A study on north–south (N–S) asymmetry of different solar activity features (DSAF) such as solar proton events, solar active prominences [total, low (?40°) and high (?50°) latitudes], Hα flare indices, soft X-ray flares, monthly mean sunspot areas and monthly mean sunspot numbers carried out from May 1996 to October 2008. Study shows a southern dominance of DSAF during this period. During the rising phase of the cycle 23 the number of DSAF approximately equals on both, the northern and the southern hemispheres. But these activities tend to shift from northern to southern hemisphere during the period 1998–1999. The statistical significance of the asymmetry time series using a χ2-test of goodness of fit indicates that in most of the cases the asymmetry is highly significant, meaning thereby that the asymmetry is a real feature in the N–S distribution of DSAF. 相似文献
7.
The extremely low sunspot activity during the period of the Maunder minimum 1645–1715 was confirmed by group sunspot numbers, a new sunspot index constructed by Hoyt and Schatten (1998a,b). Neither sunspots nor auroral data time behavior indicate the presence of 11-year solar cycles as stated by Eddy (1976). The evidence for solar cycles was found in the butterfly diagram, constructed from observations made at Observatoire de Paris. After Clivier, Boriakoff, and Bounar (1998) the solar cycles were reflected also in geomagnetic activity. Results are supported by the variation of cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 14C. The majority of the observed 14 naked-eye sunspots occurred on days when telescopic observations were not available. A part of them appeared in the years when no spot was allegedly observed. Two-ribbon flares appear in plages with only very small or no sunspots. Some of these flares are geoactive. Most aurorae (90%), which were observed during the Maunder minimum, appeared in years when no spot was observed. Auroral events as a consequence of proton flares indicate that regions with enhanced magnetic field can occur on the Sun when these regions do not produce any sunspots. 相似文献
8.
9.
Using data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) spacecraft in the 1?–?8 Å wavelength range for Solar Cycles 23, 24, and part of Cycles 21 and 22, we compare mean temporal parameters (rise and decay times, and duration) and the proportion of impulsive short-duration events (SDE) and gradual long-duration events (LDE) among C- and ≥?M1.0-class flares. It is found that the fraction of the SDE ≥?M1.0-class flares (including spikes) in Cycle 24 exceeds that in Cycle 23 in all three temporal parameters at the maximum phase and in the decay time during the ascending cycle phase. However, Cycles 23 and 24 barely differ in the fraction of the SDE C-class flares. The temporal parameters of SDEs, their fraction, and consequently the relationship between the SDE and LDE flares do not remain constant, but reveal regular changes within individual cycles and during the transition from one cycle to another. In all phases of all four cycles, these changes have the character of pronounced, large-amplitude “quasi-biennial” oscillations (QBOs). In different cycles and at the separate phases of individual cycles, such QBOs are superimposed on various systematic trends displayed by the analyzed temporal flare parameters. In Cycle 24, the fraction of the SDE ≥?M1.0-class flares from the N- and S-hemispheres displays the most pronounced synchronous QBOs. The QBO amplitude and general variability of the intense ≥?M1.0-class flares almost always markedly exceeds those of the moderate C-class flares. The ordered quantitative and qualitative variations of the flare type revealed in the course of the solar cycles are discussed within the framework of the concept that the SDE flares are associated mainly with small sunspots (including those in developed active regions) and that small and large sunspots behave differently during cycles and form two distinct populations. 相似文献
10.
Anita Joshi 《Solar physics》1995,157(1-2):315-324
This paper presents the results of studies of the asymmetries (N-S and E-W) for different manifestations of solar activity events (sunspot groups, H flares and active prominences/filaments) during the maximum-phase (1989–1991) of solar cycle 22. During the period considered, the results obtained show the existence of a real N-S asymmetry, whereas the E-W asymmetry may exist only for H flares. There is no definite relationship between the asymmetries and the occurrence of events; however, around low activity sometimes we find enhanced asymmetry, and low asymmetry around high activity. Our study suggests a good agreement with similar studies made by others. 相似文献
11.
Katsuo Tanaka 《Solar physics》1976,47(1):247-259
We show observational results on the pre-flare evolutions of H structures as well as the developments of H flares. It is shown that the chromospheric features are brought to a sheared state before flares due to motions of footpoints which correspond to particular sunspot motions. Generally in evolutions of the chromospheric features it is found that motions and reconnections of the footpoints play essential roles. The following three stages are found for development of the neutral line filament before flares: (1) formation of a filament as a result of reconnection; (2) increase of the shear of the filament due to the shear motion; and (3) reconnection of fine components of the filament to form an elongated component immediately before flares. We further show developments of two particular flares with and without the filament, and point out basic release processes of flares. The flare that occurred at the filament (July 5, 1974) started with the activation of the elongated component of the filament after the process (3). The main phase of a two-ribbon flare is considered as the rises of short components of the filament triggered by the rising motion of the elongated component. The flare of September 10, 1974 occurred at the region where fibrils connect the sunspots in distorted form. Pre-flare distortion was produced by translational rotation of the sunspot. Development of this two-ribbon flare is interpreted as being due to successive rises of the fibrils with a self-trigger mechanism.On leave from Tokyo Astronomical Observatory (present address). 相似文献
12.
对十个活动区出现的卫星黑子进行分析,据它们不同的形态、发展状况及在耀斑活动中的作用大致分成三种类型。结果表明,高能耀斑与卫星黑子有密切关系。随着卫星黑子的出现,发展在活动区中可经常产生耀斑。如果卫星黑子是静止的,通常没有耀斑爆发。 相似文献
13.
The Kodaikanal sunspot data set covering the interval 1906–1987 is analyzed for differential rotation of sunspots of different sizes. As is known, smaller sunspots rotate faster than larger sunspots, and this result is verified in the analysis of this data set. These results agree well with the Mount Wilson sunspot results published earlier. The activity cycle dependence of sunspot rotation is studied. An increase in this rate at the minimum phase is seen, which has been reported earlier. It is demonstrated that this cycle variation is seen for sunspots in all size categories, which suggests that it is not a relative increase in the number of the faster-rotating small sunspots that causes the cycle dependence. These results are discussed as they may relate to subsurface dynamic properties of the Sun. 相似文献
14.
Donald C. Norquist 《Solar physics》2011,269(1):111-127
Designing a statistical solar flare forecasting technique can benefit greatly from knowledge of the flare frequency of occurrence
with respect to sunspot groups. This study analyzed sunspot groups and Hα and X-ray flares reported for the period 1997 – 2007.
Annual catalogs were constructed, listing the days that numbered sunspot groups were observed (designated sunspot group-days,
SSG-Ds) and for each day a record for each associated Hα flare of importance category one or greater and normal or bright
brightness and for each X-ray flare of intensity C 5 or higher. The catalogs were then analyzed to produce frequency distributions
of SSG-Ds by year, sunspot group class, likelihood of producing at least one flare overall and by sunspot group class, and
frequency of occurrence of numbers of flares per day and flare intensity category. Only 3% of SSG-Ds produced a substantial
Hα flare and 7% had a significant X-ray flare. We found that mature, complex sunspot groups were more likely than simple sunspot
groups to produce a flare, but the latter were more prevalent than the former. More than half of the SSG-Ds with flares had
a maximum intensity flare greater than the lowest category (C-class of intensity five and higher). The fact that certain sunspot
group classes had flaring probabilities significantly higher than the combined probabilities of the intensity categories when
all SSG-Ds were considered suggest that it might be best to first predict the flaring probability. For sunspot groups found
likely to flare, a separate diagnosis of maximum flare intensity category appears feasible. 相似文献
15.
本文对太阳活动第２１周、２２周（１９７６年—１９９２年间）９７个质子活动区进行统计分析，包括活动区的面积、型别、磁结构、半影纤维等，结果表明：７５％的质子耀斑产生于面积为５００≤Ｓｐ≤３０００单位的黑子群中；耀斑爆发前一天及后一天活动区面积有显著减少；质子活动区含δ复杂磁结构的占７０％；具有半影旋涡形态的质子活动区中，约７７％的耀斑发生在旋涡黑子出现以后。 相似文献
16.
Z. S. Akhtemov V. G. Fainshtein N. N. Stepanian G. V. Rudenko 《Bulletin of the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory》2012,108(1):4-12
H-alpha flares accompanied by the X-radiation f ?? 10?6 wm?2 in power are examined; 2331 flares were registered during the first half of the 23rd solar cycle (1997?C2000). The specific power of the X-radiation of the flares monotonically doubles from the minimum to the maximum of the sunspot. An increase in the number of flares in each solar rotation is nonmonotonic and disproportional to the relative number of sunspots. Several longitudinal intervals with increased flare activity can be distinguished in the entire time interval of five to ten rotations. The longitudinal distributions of flares and boundaries of the sector structures of a large-scale magnetic field differ considerably. This confirms the existence of two types of zero lines; the first type is determined by active regions, and the second one is determined by large-scale structures with weak magnetic fields. The flares concentrate near Hale??s zero lines of the first type. 相似文献
17.
It is known that ??-type sunspot groups have a high flare productivity and produce strong flares. In particular, ?|?? type sunspots are the most active type of all. A ?|?? active region NOAA?9957 with frequent flux cancellations but without any marked flare activity during its decay phase was studied in this work. Using SOHO/MDI Dopplergrams and magnetograms, we detected continuous prominent downflow motions of 1500??C?1700?m?s?1 for several hours on the magnetic neutral line in this region. In the downflow region, penumbral structures were observed to decay. We will interpret and discuss the phenomenon as a case of submergence of the magnetic flux. 相似文献
18.
We investigate the solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability in terms of the sunspot classification supplemented with sunspot area and its changes. For this we use the NOAA active region data and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive 11 sunspot classes in the McIntosh sunspot group classification. Sunspot area and its changes can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. We classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups by its area: ??Large?? and ??Small??. In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot area changes: ??Decrease??, ??Steady??, and ??Increase??. As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the ??Increase?? sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares in the ??Dkc?? group, the flare occurrence rate of the ??Increase?? sub-group is three times higher than that of the ??Steady?? sub-group. The mean flare occurrence rates and flare probabilities for all sunspot groups increase with the following order: ??Decrease??, ??Steady??, and ??Increase??. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance the occurrence of major solar flares. 相似文献
19.
To better understand long-term flare activity, we present a statistical study on soft X-ray flares from May 1976 to May 2008.
It is found that the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very noticeable time lag
of 13, 8, and 8 months in cycle 21 respectively with respect to the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. There is no time lag
between the sunspot numbers and M-class flares in cycle 22. However, there is a one-month time lag for C-class flares and
a one-month time lead for X-class flares with regard to sunspot numbers in cycle 22. For cycle 23, the smoothed monthly peak
fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very noticeable time lag of one month, 5 months, and 21 months respectively
with respect to sunspot numbers. If we take the three types of flares together, the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of soft X-ray
flares have a time lag of 9 months in cycle 21, no time lag in cycle 22 and a characteristic time lag of 5 months in cycle
23 with respect to the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Furthermore, the correlation coefficients of the smoothed monthly
peak fluxes of M-class and X-class flares and the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers are higher in cycle 22 than those in cycles
21 and 23. The correlation coefficients between the three kinds of soft X-ray flares in cycle 22 are higher than those in
cycles 21 and 23. These findings may be instructive in predicting C-class, M-class, and X-class flares regarding sunspot numbers
in the next cycle and the physical processes of energy storage and dissipation in the corona. 相似文献
20.
David M. Rust 《Solar physics》1972,25(1):141-157
An observational study of maps of the longitudinal component of the photospheric fields in flaring active regions leads to the following conclusions:
- The broad-wing Hα kernels characteristic of the impulsive phase of flares occur within 10″ of neutral lines encircling features of isolated magnetic polarity (‘satellite sunspots’).
- Photospheric field changes intimately associated with several importance 1 flares and one importance 2B flare are confined to satellite sunspots, which are small (10″ diam). They often correspond to spot pores in white-light photographs.
- The field at these features appears to strengthen in the half hour just before the flares. During the flares the growth is reversed, the field drops and then recovers to its previous level.
- The magnetic flux through flare-associated features changes by about 4 × 1019 Mx in a day. The features are the same as the ‘Structures Magnétiques Evolutives’ of Martres et al. (1968a).
- An upper limit of 1021 Mx is set for the total flux change through McMath Regions 10381 and 10385 as the result of the 2B flare of 24 October, 1969.
- Large spots in the regions investigated did not evince flux changes or large proper motions at flare time.
- The results are taken to imply that the initial instability of a flare occurs at a neutral point, but the magnetic energy lost cannot yet be related to the total energy of the subsequent flare.
- No unusual velocities are observed in the photosphere at flare time.