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1.
Christopher R. Bryant Barry Smit Michael Brklacich Thomas R. Johnston John Smithers Quentin Chjotti Bhawan Singh 《Climatic change》2000,45(1):181-201
The effects of climatic variability and change on Canadian agriculture have become an important research field since the early 1980s. In this paper, we seek to synthesize this research, focusing on agricultural adaptation, a purposeful proactive or reactive response to changes associated with climate, and influenced by many factors. A distinctive feature of methods used in research on adaptation in Canadian agriculture is the focus on the important role of human agency. Many individual farmers perceive they are well adapted to climate, because of their extensive 'technological' tool-kit, giving them confidence in dealing with climatic change. In many regions, little concern is expressed over climatic change, except where there are particular types of climatic vulnerability. Farmers respond to biophysical factors, including climate, as they interact with a complex of human factors. Several of these, notably institutional and political ones, have tended to diminish the farm-level risks stemming from climatic variability and change, but may well increase the long term vulnerability of Canadian agriculture. Notwithstanding the technological and management adaptation measures available to producers, Canadian agriculture remains vulnerable to climatic variability and to climate change. 相似文献
2.
Agricultural adaptation to climatic variation 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Assumptions underlying impact assessments of climatic change for agriculture are explored conceptually and empirically. Variability in climatic conditions, the relevance of human decision-making, and the role of non-climatic forces are reviewed and captured in a model of agricultural adaptation to climate. An empirical analysis of farmers' decisions in light of variations in climate and other forces is based on a survey of 120 farm operators in southwestern Ontario. Many farmers were affected by variable climatic conditions over a six-year-period, and some undertook strategic adaptations in their farm operations. Frequency of dry years was the key climatic stimulus to farming adaptations. However, only 20 percent of farmers were sufficiently influenced by climatic conditions to respond with conscious changes in their farm operations. 相似文献
3.
The projected impact of climate change on agro-ecological systems is considered widespread and significant, particularly across the global tropics. As in many other countries, adaptation to climate change is likely to be an important challenge for Colombian agricultural systems. In a recent study, a national-level assessment of the likely future impacts of climate change on agriculture was performed (Ramirez-Villegas et al. Clim Chang 115:611–628, 2012, RV2012). The study diagnosed key challenges directly affecting major crops and regions within the Colombian agricultural system and suggested a number of actions thought to facilitate adaptation, while refraining from proposing specific strategies at local scales. Further insights on the study were published by Feola (2013) (F2013), who stressed the need for transformative adaptation processes to reduce vulnerability particularly of resource-limited farmers, and the benefits of a predominantly stakeholder-led approach to adaptation. We clarify that the recommendations outlined in RV2012 were not intended as a recipe for multi-scale adaptation, but rather a set of actions that are required to diagnose and develop adaptation actions particularly at governmental levels in coordination with national and international adaptation initiatives. Such adaptation actions ought to be, ideally, a product of inclusive sub-sectorial assessments, which can take different forms. We argue that Colombian agriculture as a whole would benefit from a better outlining of adaptation needs across temporal scales in sub-sectorial assessments that take into account both RV2012 and F2013 orientations to adaptation. We conclude with two case studies of research on climate change impacts and adaptation developed in Colombia that serve as examples of realistic, productive sectorial and sub-national assessments. 相似文献
4.
Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Change: Workshop Summary and Recommendations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The International Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate Change
held in Ljubljana, Solvenia, from 7 to 9 October 2002 addressed a range of important issues relating to climate variability,
climate change, agriculture, and forestry including the state of agriculture and forestry and agrometeological information,
and potential adaptation strategies for agriculture and forestry to changing climate conditions and other pressures. There
is evidence that global warming over the last millennium has already resulted in increased global average annual temperature
and changes in rainfall, with the 1990s being likely the warmest decade in the Northern Hemisphere at least. During the past
century, changes in temperature patterns have, for example, had a direct impact on the number of frost days and the length
of growing seasons with significant implications for agriculture and forestry. Land cover changes, changes in global ocean
circulation and sea surface temperature patterns, and changes in the composition of the global atmosphere are leading to changes
in rainfall. These changes may be more pronounced in the tropics. For example, crop varieties grown in the Sahel may not be
able to withstand the projected warming trends and will certainly be at risk due to projected lower amounts of rainfall as
well. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts will definitely improve in the future with a better understanding of dynamic
relationships. However, the main issue at present is how to make better use of the existing information and dispersion of
knowledge to the farm level. Direct participation by the farming communities in pilot projects on agrometeorological services
will be essential to determine the actual value of forecasts and to better identify the specific user needs. Old (visits,
extension radio) and new (internet) communication techniques, when adapted to local applications, may assist in the dissemination
of useful information to the farmers and decision makers. Some farming systems with an inherent resilience may adapt more
readily to climate pressures, making long-term adjustments to varying and changing conditions. Other systems will need interventions
for adaptation that should be more strongly supported by agrometeorological services for agricultural producers. This applies,
among others, to systems where pests and diseases play an important role. Scientists have to guide policy makers in fostering
an environment in which adaptation strategies can be effected. There is a clear need for integrating preparedness for climate
variability and climate change. In developed countries, a trend of higher yields, but with greater annual fluctuations and
changes in cropping patterns and crop calendars can be expected with changing climate scenarios. Shifts in projected cropping
patterns can be disruptive to rural societies in general. However, developed countries have the technology to adapt more readily
to the projected climate changes. In many developing countries, the present conditions of agriculture and forestry are already
marginal, due to degradation of natural resources, the use of inappropriate technologies and other stresses. For these reasons,
the ability to adapt will be more difficult in the tropics and subtropics and in countries in transition. Food security will
remain a problem in many developing countries. Nevertheless, there are many examples of traditional knowledge, indigenous
technologies and local innovations that can be used effectively as a foundation for improved farming systems. Before developing
adaptation strategies, it is essential to learn from the actual difficulties faced by farmers to cope with risk management
at the farm level. Agrometeorologists must play an important role in assisting farmers with the development of feasible strategies
to adapt to climate variability and climate change. Agrometeorologists should also advise national policy makers on the urgent
need to cope with the vulnerabilities of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and climate change. The workshop
recommendations were largely limited to adaptation. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate variability and climate change
is of high priority for nearly all countries, but developing countries are particularly vulnerable. Effective measures to
cope with vulnerability and adaptation need to be developed at all levels. Capacity building must be integrated into adaptation
measures for sustainable agricultural development strategies. Consequently, nations must develop strategies that effectively
focus on specific regional issues to promote sustainable development. 相似文献
5.
This study applies the Ricardian technique to estimate the effect of climate change on the smallholder agriculture sector
in Sri Lanka. The main contribution of the paper is the use of household-level data to analyze long-term climate impacts on
farm profitability. Household-level data allows us to control for a host of factors such as human and physical capital available
to farmers as well as adaptation mechanisms at the farm level. We find that non-climate variables explain about half the variation
in net revenues. However, our results suggest that climate change will have a significant impact on smallholder profitability.
In particular, reductions in precipitation during key agricultural months can be devastating. At the national level, a change
in net revenues of between −23% and +22% is likely depending on the climate change scenario simulated. These impacts will
vary considerably across geographic areas from losses of 67% to gains that more than double current net revenues. The largest
adverse impacts are anticipated in the dry zones of the North Central region and the dry zones of the South Eastern regions
of Sri Lanka. On the other hand, the intermediate and wet zones are likely to benefit, mostly due to the predicted increase
in rainfall. 相似文献
6.
The view that the agricultural sector could largely offset any negative impacts of climate change by altering production practices assumes the government will not create disincentives for farmers to adapt. U.S. farm programs, however, often discourage such obvious adaptations as switching crops, investing in water conserving technologies, and entry or exit. We outline a simple portfolio model describing producer decision making: we then use this framework to assess how specific U.S. farm programs might affect adaption to climate change. Three future climate scenarios are considered and in each the present structure of U.S. farm programs discourages adaptation. 相似文献
7.
Lee Hannah Camila I. Donatti Celia A. Harvey Eric Alfaro Daniel Andres Rodriguez Claudia Bouroncle Edwin Castellanos Freddy Diaz Emily Fung Hugo G. Hidalgo Pablo Imbach Peter Läderach Jason P. Landrum Ana Lucía Solano 《Climatic change》2017,141(1):29-45
Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research. 相似文献
8.
Climate change is a fundamental challenge for which agriculture is sensitive and vulnerable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified relevant information as key to enabling appropriate climate adaptation and mitigation action. Information specifically directed to farmers can be found, for example, in specialized farming magazines. While recent studies examine how national news media frame climate change, less—if any—studies have addressed climate framings and coverage in specialized media. Media framings are storylines that provide meaning by communicating how and why an issue should be seen as a problem, how it should be handled, and who is responsible for it. This paper analyses the framings and coverage of climate change in two Swedish specialized farming magazines from 2000 to 2009. It examines the extent of the climate change coverage, the content of the media items, and the dominant framings underlying their climate change coverage. The study identifies: increased coverage of climate change starting in 2007; frequent coverage of agriculture’s contribution to climate change, climate change impacts on agriculture, and consequences of climate politics for agriculture; and four prominent frames: conflict, scientific certainty, economic burden, and action. The paper concludes that climate change communicators addressing farmers and agricultural extension officers should pay attention to how these frames may be interpreted by different target audiences. Research is needed on how specialized media reports on climate-related issues and how science-based climate information is understood by different groups of farmers and which other factors influence farmers’ engagement in climate mitigation and adaptation. 相似文献
9.
Gavin Kenny 《Climatic change》2011,106(3):441-462
Assessments of adaptation in agriculture have evolved considerably from early, top-down, impact assessments. These early assessments,
internationally and in New Zealand, provided a limited view of ‘smart farmer’ adaptation. While impact assessment provides
some useful insights, experience with vulnerability and adaptation assessment provides a more appropriate foundation for understanding
and characterising practical smart farmer adaptation. Findings are presented from 8 years of engagement with farmers in eastern
regions of New Zealand. A comprehensive farm resilience picture has emerged from this work. This picture reflects a strong
belief from real-world smart farmers that there is sufficient knowledge and experience to adapt to climate change. Proactive
farmers are already reading multiple signals, including changes in climate, and are responding. The farm resilience picture
provides a foundation for exploring alternative adaptation options and pathways for agriculture. These are presented and discussed
in response to two proposed climate change scenarios, a high carbon world scenario and a rapidly decarbonising world scenario.
Knowledge intensive, low input systems are consistent with the resilience picture drawn from farmers. Such systems are also
consistent with a rapidly decarbonising world scenario and, it is argued, are likely to become increasingly attractive under
a high carbon world scenario. A smart farming approach, focused on resilience, provides the basis for development of a response
capacity, with potentially significant co-benefits in terms of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Wider issues and
needs to support the further development of farm resilience, and more widely landscape or regional resilience, are identified
and discussed. It is apparent from this work that ongoing engagement with smart farmers, focused on resilience, can contribute
significantly to development of a coordinated ‘bottom up’ and ‘top down’ response capacity. Addressing the psychology of change
is a fundamental need to ensure wider engagement. 相似文献
10.
Climate Change and Agricultural Soils: Impacts and Adaptation 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
This article reviews the current state of knowledge on the response of soils to climate change, and the implications such changes have for agriculture. The article is based on the material reported in the IPCC second assessment report (Watson et al., 1996) and updated with more recent information, where appropriate. The review highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of soil processes when addressing climate change impacts on agriculture. Rapid soil responses to climate change (e.g. soil water, organic carbon and erodibility) have been widely investigated and reported in the literature. However, it is important that longer-term processes (e.g. pedogenesis) are not ignored by the research community because these have potentially important implications for long-term agricultural land use and are often irreversible. The use of good land management practices, as currently understood, provides the best strategy for adaptation to the impact of climate change on soils. However, it appears likely that farmers will need to carefully reconsider their management options, and land use change is likely to result from different crop selections that are more appropriate to the changing conditions. Perhaps the greatest impact of climate change on soils will arise from climate-induced changes in land use and management. 相似文献
11.
Cynthia Rosenzweig Kenneth M. Strzepek David C. Major Ana Iglesias David N. Yates Alyssa McCluskey Daniel Hillel 《Global Environmental Change》2004,14(4):823
This integrated study examines the implications of changes in crop water demand and water availability for the reliability of irrigation, taking into account changes in competing municipal and industrial demands, and explores the effectiveness of adaptation options in maintaining reliability. It reports on methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural, and planning models to study water availability for agriculture under changing climate conditions, to estimate changes in ecosystem services, and to evaluate adaptation strategies for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The models are applied to major agricultural regions in Argentina, Brazil, China, Hungary, Romania, and the US, using projections of climate change, agricultural production, population, technology, and GDP growth.For most of the relatively water-rich areas studied, there appears to be sufficient water for agriculture given the climate change scenarios tested. Northeastern China suffers from the greatest lack of water availability for agriculture and ecosystem services both in the present and in the climate change projections. Projected runoff in the Danube Basin does not change substantially, although climate change causes shifts in environmental stresses within the region. Northern Argentina's occasional problems in water supply for agriculture under the current climate may be exacerbated and may require investments to relieve future tributary stress. In Southeastern Brazil, future water supply for agriculture appears to be plentiful. Water supply in most of the US Cornbelt is projected to increase in most climate change scenarios, but there is concern for tractability in the spring and water-logging in the summer.Adaptation tests imply that only the Brazil case study area can readily accommodate an expansion of irrigated land under climate change, while the other three areas would suffer decreases in system reliability if irrigation areas were to be expanded. Cultivars are available for agricultural adaptation to the projected changes, but their demand for water may be higher than currently adapted varieties. Thus, even in these relatively water-rich areas, changes in water demand due to climate change effects on agriculture and increased demand from urban growth will require timely improvements in crop cultivars, irrigation and drainage technology, and water management. 相似文献
12.
Kristin L. Mercer Hugo R. Perales Joel D. Wainwright 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(2):495-504
Climate change will affect agricultural production by subsistence farms in crop centers of origin, where landraces are conserved in situ. Various strategies for adaptation to climate change have been proposed. In this paper we examine the prospects of what we call the ‘transgenic adaptation strategy’, i.e. the appeal to use transgenic seeds to adapt to climate change, through the lens of smallholder maize farming in Mexico. Landraces are the bedrock of maize production in Mexico. We consider how maize farmers may respond to climate change and the effects of those responses on crop diversity. In this paper, we argue that the promotion of the transgenic adaptation strategy is problematic for biological and social reasons. Smallholder livelihoods in southern Mexico could suffer a disproportionate negative impact if transgenic technology is privileged as a response to climate change. Agroecological and evolutionary approaches to addressing the effects of climate change on smallholder agriculture provides an alternative adaptive strategy. 相似文献
13.
针对气候变暖采取稳健的适应措施已成为国际社会共识。该文综合了当前适应气候变化的国际谈判进展及已有的农业适应气候变化措施,指出适应资金严重不足,技术研发、应用与转让难以实施,以及适应气候变化行动实施能力的不足严重制约着适应气候变化行动的有效实施;关于农业适应气候变化的技术措施仍缺乏系统的理论研究与应用示范。在此基础上,提出了未来中国农业适应气候变化需要重点开展的研究任务,即农业气象灾变过程的新特点及其风险管理, 农业适应气候变化的大数据决策管理系统研发及适应气候变化的农业气候区划与减灾保产技术研究,以切实推进农业适应气候变化,为确保国家粮食安全与农业可持续发展提供支撑。 相似文献
14.
What information do policy makers need to develop climate adaptation plans for smallholder farmers? The case of Central America and Mexico 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Camila I. Donatti Celia A. Harvey M. Ruth Martinez-Rodriguez Raffaele Vignola Carlos Manuel Rodriguez 《Climatic change》2017,141(1):107-121
Scientific and technical information can increase the ability of policy makers to make strategic decisions. However, climate change policy is often formulated without significant input from science. We examine whether the availability and accessibility of information related to climate change is a major barrier for policy action on climate change adaptation for smallholder farmers. We also investigate whether scientific information related to climate change is available and used in policy making in Central America and Mexico. Our online survey of 105 decision makers indicated that a lack of scientific and technical information hinders policy makers from developing policies to help smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. Specific needs include information on the impacts of climate change on water availability for agriculture and the areas that are or will be prone to flooding, droughts or landslides. Information about the location of the farmers who are most vulnerable to climate change, the projected temperature and precipitation in agricultural areas and the expected impacts of climate change on crop yields or animal productivity, is also needed. Despite high interest in having scientific information guide policy making, many respondents indicated that policy makers rarely use this information in adaptation planning. In addition to ensuring that relevant information is available to inform policy making, technical and scientific information must be published in venues that are readily accessible for policy makers, easy to understand, and written in a format that is policy-relevant. It is also critical that scientific articles provide specific recommendations for achieving desired policy outcomes. 相似文献
15.
H. M. Vinaya Kumar M. Shivamurthy V. Govinda Gowda G. S. Biradar 《Climatic change》2017,142(1-2):143-153
In recent years among the scientific community, adverse effects of climate change shifted from being a hypothesis to being a reality. Coastal Karnataka prioritized climate variability as a productivity-reducing factor in agriculture and fishery farming. Prevailing unsatisfactory productive services in the agricultural sector and allied industries resulted in degradation of natural resources at the farm level. The adverse impact of climate change and continued fragmentation of landholding have led to poor socio-economic status leading to high dependency on farm income and productivity. The present study is focusing on understanding the response of farmers on decision-making and economic performance due to climate change through face-to-face interviews. The decision ability of the farmers was significantly better among high-crisis management groups than small and marginal farmers, who are having highly diverse decision-making ability. Consequently, economic performance, the benefit/cost ratio of high crisis management group was greater than that of medium and low crisis management groups. Finally, this research study emphasizes the importance of behavioral responses of the farmers in formulating policies and designing strategies to overcome ill effects of the climate-induced crisis. 相似文献
16.
Researchers who do not take into account farm heterogeneity in implementing specific climate change adaptation options might significantly bias their findings. To prove this point, this paper focusses on irrigation as an adaptation option to climate change and highlights the fact that there is no such thing as “irrigation.” Instead, different farms consider water management options across a spectrum that ranges from purely rainfed farms to purely irrigated farms with in between the extreme practices such as supplemental irrigation, water conservation practices, and different irrigation techniques. Accounting for such differences is necessary, yet difficult due to a lack of farm-specific data on water management and irrigation. This paper uses unique Farm Accountancy Data Network data of Western European farmers on the proportion of farmland that each farm irrigates. Unlike previous work, this allows taking into account some within-irrigation heterogeneity instead of simply categorizing farms as being “irrigated.” We estimate and compare climate response models based on the Ricardian cross-sectional method for a large range of irrigation categories. The results give insights into how the farm irrigation climate response can be significantly different depending on how irrigation is defined. This proves that ignoring within-adaptation differences when comparing non-adaptation with adaptation (in this case, rainfed versus irrigated agriculture) might lead to biased conclusions with regard to effectiveness of adaptation strategies. We therefore argue that it might be more relevant to understand at which point and under which circumstances irrigated agriculture is more or less beneficial than rainfed agriculture. 相似文献
17.
Farmer beliefs and concerns about climate change and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation: Evidence from Iowa 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Agriculture is both vulnerable to climate change impacts and a significant source of greenhouse gases. Increasing agriculture’s resilience and reducing its contribution to climate change are societal priorities. Survey data collected from Iowa farmers are analyzed to answer the related research questions: (1) do farmers support adaptation and mitigation actions, and (2) do beliefs and concerns about climate change influence those attitudes. Results indicate that farmers who were concerned about the impacts of climate change on agriculture and attributed it to human activities had more positive attitudes toward both adaptive and mitigative management strategies. Farmers who believed that climate change is not a problem because human ingenuity will enable adaptations and who did not believe climate change is occurring or believed it is a natural phenomenon—a substantial percentage of farmers—tended not to support mitigation. 相似文献
18.
Stéphane Hallegatte 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(2):240-247
Many decisions concerning long-lived investments already need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due to the rate of climate change, new infrastructure will have to be able to cope with a large range of changing climate conditions, which will make design more difficult and construction more expensive. Second, uncertainty in future climate makes it impossible to directly use the output of a single climate model as an input for infrastructure design, and there are good reasons to think that the needed climate information will not be available soon. Instead of optimizing based on the climate conditions projected by models, therefore, future infrastructure should be made more robust to possible changes in climate conditions. This aim implies that users of climate information must also change their practices and decision-making frameworks, for instance by adapting the uncertainty-management methods they currently apply to exchange rates or R&D outcomes. Five methods are examined: (i) selecting “no-regret” strategies that yield benefits even in absence of climate change; (ii) favouring reversible and flexible options; (iii) buying “safety margins” in new investments; (iv) promoting soft adaptation strategies, including long-term prospective; and (v) reducing decision time horizons. Moreover, it is essential to consider both negative and positive side-effects and externalities of adaptation measures. Adaptation–mitigation interactions also call for integrated design and assessment of adaptation and mitigation policies, which are often developed by distinct communities. 相似文献
19.
Hallie Eakin 《Climatic change》2000,45(1):19-36
The article explores the strategies employed by smallholder farmers in Mexico to cope with the affects of climatic variability, and how seasonal climate forecasts may assist these farmers in mitigating climatic risk. Recognizing that the decisions of smallholder farmers are intricately tied to the political-economic circumstances in which they operate, the article discusses how agricultural policy in Mexico affects the vulnerability of small-scale producers and may inhibit their ability to use climatic forecasts to their advantage. The article first reviews the literature on smallholder adaptation in Mexico, and discusses briefly policy and institutional issues affecting adaptation at the farm-level. Using the case of small-scale maize producers in Tlaxcala, Mexico, as an illustration, the article then argues that political-economic uncertainty outweighs climatic variability as a determinant of the production strategies of small-scale producers. In these circumstances, the farmers are unlikely to use new seasonal climate forecasts. 相似文献
20.
在对国际气候变化适应行动进行回顾和展望的基础上,介绍了以《联合国气候变化框架公约》为主的国际气候变化适应政策的发展轨迹和趋势,分析了欧盟主要国家、澳大利亚、美国、加拿大、日本、俄罗斯和印度等国所采取的气候变化适应战略,总结出国际气候变化适应行动选择主要集中在极端气候事件与自然灾害、安全的淡水供应、基础设施建设、粮食安全,以及应对气候变化的协调机制等方面。 相似文献