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1.
Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector β that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation γθ∗, where γ is an interpolation matrix and θ∗ is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector θ∗ has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(γθ∗) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of β, f(β), which is assumed to be nearly exact. The difference f(β) − f(γθ∗), termed model error, is spatially correlated, generates prediction biases, and causes standard confidence and prediction intervals to be too small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate θ∗ and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear regression methods are extended to analyze the revised method. The analysis develops analytical expressions for bias terms reflecting the interaction of model nonlinearity and model error, for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for this interaction, and for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for possible use of a diagonal weight matrix in place of the correct one. If terms expressing the degree of intrinsic nonlinearity for f(β) and f(γθ∗) are small, then most of the biases are small and the correction factors are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis.  相似文献   

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4.
A transient model, hereafter referred to as ROM-TM, was developed to quantify river ecosystem metabolic rates and reaeration rates from field observation of changes in dissolved O2 (DO) and the ratio of 18O to 16O in DO (δ18O-DO). ROM-TM applies an inverse modeling approach and is programmed using MATLAB. Parameters describing photosynthesis, ecosystem respiration, gas exchange, and isotopic fractionation, such as maximum photosynthetic rate (P m ), photosynthetic efficiency parameter (a), respiration rate at 20 °C (R 20 ), gas exchange coefficient (K), respiration isotopic fractionation factor (a R ), and photorespiration coefficient (β R ), can be abstracted by minimizing the sum of square errors between the fitted data and the observed field data. Then DO and δ18O-DO time series can be reconstructed using estimated parameters and input variables. Besides being capable of teasing apart metabolic processes and gas exchange to provide daily average estimates of metabolic parameters at the ecosystem scale, ROM-TM can be used to address issues related to light including light saturation phenomena at the ecosystem level, the effect of cloud cover on the metabolic balance, and photorespiration. Error and uncertainty analysis demonstrates that ROM-TM is stable and robust for the random errors of DO time series. The photosynthetic parameters P m and a are more sensitive than other parameters to lower-resolution time series data.  相似文献   

5.
In this work we study mixed finite element approximations of Richards’ equation for simulating variably saturated subsurface flow and simultaneous reactive solute transport. Whereas higher order schemes have proved their ability to approximate reliably reactive solute transport (cf., e.g. [Bause M, Knabner P. Numerical simulation of contaminant biodegradation by higher order methods and adaptive time stepping. Comput Visual Sci 7;2004:61–78]), the Raviart–Thomas mixed finite element method (RT0) with a first order accurate flux approximation is popular for computing the underlying water flow field (cf. [Bause M, Knabner P. Computation of variably saturated subsurface flow by adaptive mixed hybrid finite element methods. Adv Water Resour 27;2004:565–581, Farthing MW, Kees CE, Miller CT. Mixed finite element methods and higher order temporal approximations for variably saturated groundwater flow. Adv Water Resour 26;2003:373–394, Starke G. Least-squares mixed finite element solution of variably saturated subsurface flow problems. SIAM J Sci Comput 21;2000:1869–1885, Younes A, Mosé R, Ackerer P, Chavent G. A new formulation of the mixed finite element method for solving elliptic and parabolic PDE with triangular elements. J Comp Phys 149;1999:148–167, Woodward CS, Dawson CN. Analysis of expanded mixed finite element methods for a nonlinear parabolic equation modeling flow into variably saturated porous media. SIAM J Numer Anal 37;2000:701–724]). This combination might be non-optimal. Higher order techniques could increase the accuracy of the flow field calculation and thereby improve the prediction of the solute transport. Here, we analyse the application of the Brezzi-Douglas-Marini element (BDM1) with a second order accurate flux approximation to elliptic, parabolic and degenerate problems whose solutions lack the regularity that is assumed in optimal order error analyses. For the flow field calculation a superiority of the BDM1 approach to the RT0 one is observed, which however is less significant for the accompanying solute transport.  相似文献   

6.
Rock masses contain ubiquitous multiscale heterogeneities, which (or whose boundaries) serve as the surfaces of discontinuity for some characteristics of the stress state, e.g., for the orientation of principal stress axes. Revealing the regularities that control these discontinuities is a key to understanding the processes taking place at the boundaries of the heterogeneities and for designing the correct procedures for reconstructing and theoretical modeling of tectonic stresses. In the present study, the local laws describing the refraction of the axes of extreme principal stresses T 1 (maximal tension in the deviatoric sense) and T 3 (maximal compression) of the Cauchy stress tensor at the transition over the elementary area n of discontinuity whose orientation is specified by the unit normal n are derived. It is assumed that on the area n of discontinuity, frictional contact takes place. No hypotheses are made on the constitutive equations, and a priori constraints are not posed on the orientation on the stress axes. Two domains, which adjoin area n on the opposite sides and are conventionally marked + and ?, are distinguished. In the case of the two-dimensional (2D) stress state, any principal stress axis on passing from domain ? to domain + remains in the same quadrant of the plane as the continuation of this axis in domain +. The sign and size of the refraction angle depend on the sign and amplitude of the jump of the normal stress, which is tangential to the surface of discontinuity. In the three-dimensional (3D) case, the refraction of axes T 1 and T 3 should be analyzed simultaneously. For each side, + and ?, the projections of the T 1 and T 3 axes on the generally oriented plane n form the shear sectors S + and S ?, which are determined unambiguously and to whose angular domains the possible directions p + and p ? of the shear stress vectors belong. In order for the extreme stress axes T 1 + ,T 3 + and T 1 ? , T 3 ? to be statically compatible on the generally oriented plane n, it is required that sectors S + and S ? had a nonempty intersection. The direction vectors p + and p ? are determined uniquely if, besides axes T 1 ? , T 3 ? and T 1 + , T 3 + , also the ratios of differential stresses R + and R ? (0 ≤ R ± ≤ 1) are known. This is equivalent to specifying the reduced stress tensors T R + and T R ? The necessary condition for tensors T R + and T R ? being statically compatible on plane n is the equality p + = p ?. In this paper, simple methods are suggested for solving the inverse problem of constructing the set of the orientations of the extreme stress axes from the known direction p of the shear stress vector on plane n and from the data on the shear sector. Based on these methods and using the necessary conditions of local equilibrium on plane n formulated above, all the possible orientations of axes T 1 + , T 3 + are determined if the projections of axes T 1 ? , T 3 ? axes on side — are given. The angle between the projections of axes T 1 + , T 1 ? and/or T 3 + , T 3 ? on the plane can attain 90°. Besides the general case, also the particular cases of the contact between the degenerate stress states and the special position of plane n relative to the principal stress axes are thoroughly examined. Generalization of the obtained results makes it possible to plot the local diagram of the orientations of axes T 1 + , T 3 + for a given sector S ?. This diagram is a so-called stress orientation sphere, which is subdivided into three pairs of areas (compression, tension, and compression-extension). The tension and compression zones cannot contain the poles of T 3 + and T 1 + axes, respectively. The compression-extension zones can contain the poles of either T 1 + or T 3 + axis but not both poles simultaneously. In the particular case when the shear stress vector has a unique direction p ? on side ?, the areas of compression-extension disappear and the diagram is reduced to a beach-ball plot, which visualizes the focal mechanism solution of an earthquake. If area n is a generally oriented plane and if the orientation of the pairs of the statically compatible axes T 1 ? , T 3 ? and T 1 + , T 3 + is specified, then, the stress values on side + are uniquely determined from the known stress values on side ?. From the value of differential stress ratio R ?, one can calculate the value of R +, and using the values of the principal stresses on side ?, determine the total stress tensor T + on side +. The obtained results are supported by the laboratory experiments and drilling data. In particular, these results disclose the drawbacks of some established notions and methods in which the possible refraction of the stress axes is unreasonably ignored or taken into account improperly. For example, it is generally misleading to associate the slip on the preexisting fault with the orientation of any particular trihedron of the principal stress axes. The reconstruction should address the potentially statically compatible principal stress axes, which are differently oriented on opposite sides of the fault plane. The fact that, based on the orientation of the intraplate principal stresses at the base of the lithosphere, one cannot make a conclusion on the active or passive influence of the mantle flows on the lithospheric plate motion is another example. The present relationships linking the stress values on the opposite sides of the fault plane on which the orientations of the principal stress axes are known demonstrate the incorrectness of the existing methods, in which the reduced stress tensors within the material domains are reconstructed without allowance for the dynamic interaction of these domains with their neighbors. In addition, using the obtained results, one can generalize the notion of the zone of dynamical control of a fault onto the case of the existence of discontinuities in this region and analyze the stress transfer across the system of the faults.  相似文献   

7.
The variations in the density of the ionospheric F2 layer maximum (NmF2) under the action of the zonal plasma drift perpendicularly to the magnetic (B) and electric (E) fields in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east have been studied using the three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of electron and ion densities (N e and N i ) and temperatures (T e and T i ) in the low-latitude and midlatitude ionospheric F region and plasmasphere. The method of numerical calculations of N e , N i , T e , and T i , including the advantages of the Lagrangian and Eulerian methods, is used in the model. A dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field (B), taking into account the non-coincidence of the geographic and geomagnetic poles and differences between the positions of the Earth’s and geomagnetic dipole centers, is accepted in the calculations. The calculated NmF2 and altitudes of the F2 layer maximum (hmF2) have been compared with these quantities measured at 16 low-latitude ionospheric sounding stations during the geomagnetically quiet period October 11–12, 1958. This comparison made it possible to correct the input model parameters: the NRLMSISE-00 model [O], the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity according to the HWW90 model, and the meridional component of the equatorial plasma drift due to the electric field specified by the empirical model. It has been indicated that the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 can be neglected under daytime conditions and changes in NmF2 and hmF2 under the action of this drift are insignificant under nighttime conditions north of 25° and south of ?26° geomagnetic latitude. The effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 is most substantial in the nightside ionosphere approximately from ?20° to 20° geomagnetic latitude, and the neglect of this drift results in an up to 2.4-fold underestimation of NmF2. The found dependence of the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 on geomagnetic latitude is related to the longitudinal asymmetry of B, asymmetry of the neutral wind about the geomagnetic equator, and changes in the meridional E × B plasma drift at a change in geomagnetic longitude.  相似文献   

8.
Many groundwater flow and transport problems, especially those with sharp fronts, narrow transition zones, layers and fingers, require extensive computational resources. In this paper, we present a novel multi-resolution adaptive Fup approach to solve the above mentioned problems. Our numerical procedure is the Adaptive Fup Collocation Method (AFCM), based on Fup basis functions and designed through a method of lines (MOL). Fup basis functions are localized and infinitely differentiable functions with compact support and are related to more standard choices such as splines or wavelets. This method enables the adaptive multi-resolution approach to solve problems with different spatial and temporal scales with a desired level of accuracy using the entire family of Fup basis functions. In addition, the utilized collocation algorithm enables the mesh free approach with consistent velocity approximation and flux continuity due to properties of the Fup basis functions. The introduced numerical procedure was tested and verified by a few characteristic groundwater flow and transport problems, the Buckley–Leverett multiphase flow problem, the 1-D vertical density driven problem and the standard 2-D seawater intrusion benchmark–Henry problem. The results demonstrate that the method is robust and efficient particularly when describing sharp fronts and narrow transition zones changing in space and time.  相似文献   

9.
A recently proposed model of foam impact on the air–sea drag coefficient C d has been employed for the estimation of the effective foam-bubble radius R b variation with wind speed U10 in hurricane conditions. The model relates C d (U10) with the effective roughness length Z eff (U10) represented as a sum of aerodynamic roughness lengths of the foam-free and foam-covered sea surfaces Z w (U10) and Z f (U10) weighted with the foam coverage coefficient α f (U10). This relation is treated for known phenomenological distributions C d (U10), Z w (U10), and α f (U10) at strong wind speeds as an inverse problem for the effective roughness parameter of foam-covered sea surface Z f (U10). The present study is aimed at the estimation of the effective roughness of the sea surface assuming that the measurement data for the effective drag coefficient are known. The effective foam-bubble size is found as a function of the wind speed.  相似文献   

10.
The relation of the Kp index of geomagnetic activity to the solar wind electric field (E SW) and the projection of this field onto the geomagnetic dipole has been estimated. An analysis indicated that the southward component of the IMF vector (B z < 0) is the main geoeffective parameter, as was repeatedly indicated by many researchers. The presence of this component in any combinations of the interplanetary medium parameters is responsible for a high correlation between such combinations and geomagnetic activity referred to by the authors of different studies. Precisely this field component also plays the main role in the relation between the Kp index and the relative orientation of E SW and the Earth’ magnetic moment.  相似文献   

11.
The behavior of the mean equivalent hydraulic conductivity normal and parallel to stratification (K1, and K2, respectively) is studied here through Monte Carlo simulations of three-dimensional, steady-state flow in statistically anisotropic, bounded, and heterogeneous media. For water flow normal to stratification in strongly heterogeneous porous media (2Y=3) the value of K1 is not unique; it ranges from an arithmetic to a geometric, and finally, to a harmonic mean behavior depending on field dimensions, and medium anisotropy. For a fixed anisotropy ratio and variance of Y = ln K, the larger the distance, in the direction perpendicular to stratification, over which water flow takes place, the faster the rate at which, KH, behavior is approached. However, even for large anisotropy ratios, harmonic mean behavior appears to be a good approximation only for aquifer thickness L1 that is large enough to allow stratified flow to occur. For small aquifer thickness (L1/1<8, where 1 is the integral scale normal to stratification) the limiting behavior, for large anisotropy ratios, appears to be, instead, that of two-dimensional flow, i.e., water flows primarily parallel to the planes of stratification. When the aquifer thickness is very small compared to the horizontal dimensions (and with relative similar integral scales in the three directions) a behavior resembling arithmetic mean conditions is exhibited, i.e., water flow takes place through heterogeneous, vertical, soil volumes. The geostatistical expressions of Desbarats (1992a) for upscaling hydraulic conductivity values were utilized and closed form empirical relations were developed for the main components of the upscaled hydraulic conductivity tensor.  相似文献   

12.
Tectonic activities, electrical structures, and electromagnetic environments are major factors that affect the stability of spontaneous fields. The method of correlating regional synchronization contrasts(CRSC) can determine the reliability of multi-site data trends or shortimpending anomalies. From 2008 to 2013, there were three strong earthquake cluster periods in the North–South seismic belt that lasted for 8–12 months. By applying the CRSC method to analyze the spontaneous field E_(SP) at 25 sites of the region in the past 6 years, it was discovered that for each strong earthquake cluster period, the E_(SP) strength of credible anomalous trends was present at minimum 30%of the stations. In the southern section of the Tan-Lu fault zone, the E_(SP) at four main geoelectric field stations showed significant anomalous trends after June 2015, which could be associated with the major earthquakes of the East China Sea waters(MS7.2) in November 2015 and Japan's Kyushu island(MS7.3) in April 2016.  相似文献   

13.
Sensitivity study of the air–ice drag coefficient C Dai is presented with an ice–ocean coupled model for the Sea of Okhotsk. The C Dai?×?103 value is varied from 2 to 5 based on the direct measurements in the region. The maximum volume transport of the East Sakhalin Current and the mean sea ice velocity were intensified as C Dai increased. The sensitivity experiment with the ice–water drag coefficient C Diw showed that the East Sakhalin Current volume transport is hardly affected by C Diw but significantly intensified by C Dai. While the ice drift in the off-ice-edge direction was intensified by the increase in C Dai and the decrease in C Diw, the ice edge location was nearly unchanged. This was due to melting caused by the relatively warm water inflow from the North Pacific. That is, sea ice extent in the region is strongly influenced by melting caused by a large ice–ocean heat transfer. In the active melting regions, the ice–ocean heat transfer of more than 100 W/m2 occurred even in mid-winter. This is the same order as the cooling by air in winter, and a heat insulation capacity of sea ice is weakened in such regions.  相似文献   

14.
The three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of the concentrations and temperatures of electrons and ions in the ionospheric F region and plasmasphere at low and middle latitudes is used to study variations in the concentration NmF2 and height hmF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer under the action of the plasma zonal drift in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east perpendicularly to the electric E and geomagnetic B fields. The calculated and measured values of NmF2 and hmF2 for 16 ionospheric sounding stations during the quiet geomagnetic period on March 28–29, 1964 at low solar activity are compared. This comparison made it possible to correct the input parameters of the model: [O] from the NRLMSISE-00 model and the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity from the HWW90 model. It is shown that the nighttime NmF2 values decrease up to twice at low solar activity in the low-latitude ionosphere, and the hmF2 values change by up to 16 km, if the plasma zonal E×B drift is not taken into account. Under the daytime conditions, the influence of the plasma zonal E×B drift on NmF2 can be neglected.  相似文献   

15.
Cushion is a layer of granular materials between the raft and the ground. The shear behavior of the interface between the cushion and the raft may influence the seismic performance of the superstructure. In order to quantify such influences, horizontal shear tests on the interfaces between different cushion materials and concrete raft under monotonic and cyclic loading were carried out. The vertical pressure P_v, material type and cushion thickness h_c were taken as variables. Conclusions include: 1) under monotonic loading, P_v is the most significant factor; the shear resistance P_(hmax) increases as P_v increases, but the normalized factor of resistance μ_n has an opposite tendency; 2) for the materials used in this study, μ_n varies from 0.40 to 0.70, the interface friction angle δ_s varies from 20° to 35°, while u_(max) varies from 3 mm to 15 mm; 3) under cyclic loading, the interface behavior can be abstracted as a "three-segment" back-bone curve, the main parameters include μ_n, the displacement u_1 and stiffness K_1 of the elastic stage, the displacement u_2 and stiffness K_2 of the plastic stage; 4) by observation and statistical analysis, the significance of different factors, together with values of K_1, K_2 and μ_n have been obtained.  相似文献   

16.
The time derivative (d H/dt) of the geomagnetic field horizontal component (H) for seven intervals of high geomagnetic activity in 2003–2005 has been calculated, based on the data of Alma-Ata, Novosibirsk, and Irkutsk observatories, in order to estimate the probability of appearance of geomagnetically induced current (GIC), the value of which is linearly dependent on d H/dt, in power lines on the territory of Kazakhstan. The distributions of the H and d H/dt directions have been constructed; in this case it was most interesting that these distributions were narrow and extended along the magnetic meridian for Alma-Ata and were wider angular for Novosibirsk and Irkutsk. It has been indicated that large H values, determining significant GIC values, took place at a sudden commencement of strong storms, which had a character of a pulsed disturbance of the geomagnetic field, and during large-amplitude geomagnetic field pulsations. The duration of the periods of large |d H/dt| values exceeding the threshold (30 nT/min), when GIC could cause unwanted consequences in power circuits, has been determined.  相似文献   

17.
The Pearl River Estuary is among the largest estuaries in the subtropical areas of the world. Along the salinity and turbidity gradient between the freshwater reach of the Pearl River and the marine water of the South China Sea, the spatial and temporal composition and abundance of phytoplankton was examined in relation to physic-chemical variables during the dry and wet seasons of 2009. Water samples for phytoplankton and environmental parameters were collected from 18 stations during two seasons along a transect from upper estuary to estuarine and marine sectors. A total of 162 species belonging to 7 phyla were identified, with diatoms dominated in both seasons while dinoflagellates proliferated in autumn. Two main clusters and three sub-clades under each main cluster corresponding to seasons and water sectors were defined with multivariate analysis (cluster and nMDS). Based on the species composition and abundance of phytoplankton, both seasonal and spatial variability were observed at a significant level (ANOSIM: season effect, R=0.896, P<0.01; station effect, R=0.463, P<0.01). The correlation analysis between biotic and abiotic variables indicated that instead of the “proverbial” anthropogenic nutrients loading and salinity gradient, the best 2-variable combination (temperature and turbidity) showed a significant effect on the pattern of phytoplankton assemblages (ρw=0.49, BIOENV analysis) between wet and dry seasons in the Pearl River Estuary. This result suggests that physical disturbance either natural or manmade is a more important factor in regulating the phytoplankton community structure within the hydrologically distinct zone of estuaries.  相似文献   

18.
Using model simulations, the morphological picture (revealed earlier) of the disturbances in the F 2 region of the equatorial ionosphere under quiet geomagnetic conditions (Q-disturbances) is interpreted. It is shown that the observed variations in the velocity of the vertical E × B plasma drift, related to the zonal E y component of the electric field, are responsible for the formation of Q-disturbances. The plasma recombination at altitudes of the lower part of the F 2 region and the dependence of the rate of this process on heliogeophysical conditions compose the mechanism of Q-disturbance formation at night. The daytime positive Q-disturbances are caused exclusively by a decrease in the upward E × B drift, and this type of disturbances could be related to the known phenomenon of counter electrojet. Possible causes of formation of the daytime negative Q-disturbances are discussed.  相似文献   

19.
This paper describes an effective implementation of the inverse data-space multiple elimination method via the three-dimensional (3D) curvelet domain. The method can separate the surface-related operator (A) and primaries (P 0) through seismic data matrix inversion. A 3D curvelet transform is introduced to sparsely represent the seismic data in the inverse data space. Hence, this approach is suitable for obtaining an accurate solution because of its multiscale and multidirectional analysis properties. The L1 norm is used to promote sparseness in the transform domain. Then, a high-fidelity separation of the operator (A) and the primaries (P 0) is realized. The proposed method is applied to synthetic data from a model containing a salt structure. We compare the results with that of the traditional inverse data-space multiple elimination method and also with that of two-dimensional surface-related multiple elimination. The findings fully demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the traditional inverse method; moreover, the proposed method protects the primary energy more effectively than the SRME method.  相似文献   

20.
From a Fourier analysis of the monthly mean values of the northern hemispheric geopotential heights at 30 and 50 mb levels, for the period 1972–1979, the transports of momentum and of sensible heat, and the energy conversion terms,C(K E ,K Z ) andC(A Z ,A E ), have been computed along 30°N and 60°N latitutudes. The variation in these dynamical parameters at 60°N, in relation to monsoon activity in low latitudes and the easterly and westerly phases of the QBO over Gan Island, suggest that a coupling may exist between the high-latitude stratospheric changes and low-latitude monsoon activity and that the low-latitude stratospheric activity modulates high-latitude circulation, confirming the results obtained byHolton andTan (1980) and byLabitzke (1983). The study of the low-latitude stratospheric changes in relation to the high-latitude warmings also indicates a linkage between the low- and high-latitude features  相似文献   

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