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1.
The characteristics of storm surges obtained from sea level observations at four hydrometeorological stations in the North Caspian Sea for 2003–2017 are presented. The sea level that by 30 cm exceeds the monthly mean value at the analyzed point of the Caspian Sea was considered as a surge. In total, 370 surges were registered, 83% of them occurred during the cold season (September-April). The maximum surge height was 125 cm, the longest duration was 7 days. The most significant surges on Tyulenii Island were simulated with the operational hydrodynamic model of the sea level and currents of the Caspian Sea using atmospheric forcing from the COSMO model. The mean coefficient of correlation between the simulated and observed sea level is equal to 0.94. 相似文献
2.
A high-precision digital elevation model of the Caspian Sea with the spatial resolution of 0.001° x 0.001° is constructed and used as a basis for computation grids of various scales. A three-level scheme for calculating wind waves with the sequence of nested grids (Caspian Sea-Northern Caspian, Absheron Peninsula, Turkmenbashy city-the Northern Caspian key areas) is developed. A scenario designer is implemented which considers in calculations the ice edge position and the coastline dynamics. The SWAN spectral wave model is adapted to the Caspian Sea conditions. The series of calculations and the comparison of the obtained results with observational data are provided. It is found that the best result is obtained when corrected reanalysis data are used for calculations. 相似文献
3.
The influence of climate changes in Eurasia on the Caspian Sea level fluctuations in the Holocene is studied on the basis
of historical data. The correspondence of the Late Khvalyn transgression to the time of the thawing of the European (Scandinavian)
ice cap is revealed as well as that of the climatic optimum of the Holocene to the Boreal period (10-8 thousand years ago).
In the next New-Caspian epoch, the Caspian Sea regression occurred. In the historical time, the maxima of cold snaps and Caspian
Sea level are registered every five centuries. 相似文献
4.
Simulating multi-decadal variability of Caspian Sea level changes using regional climate model outputs 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Caspian Sea is the largest enclosed body of water on earth, covering approximately 4×105 km2 and sharing its coast with five countries (Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan). Because it has no outlet
to the ocean the Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone rapid shifts in response to climatic forcings, and these have been
devastating for the surrounding countries. In this paper we present the initial results of a modeling effort aimed at building
a regional climate model for the Caspian Sea basin suitable to study the response of the CSL to interdecadal climate variability
and anthropogenic climate change. Simulations are performed using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)
regional climate model RegCM at a 50 km grid spacing for the period 1948–1990. During this period an abrupt shift occurred
in the sea level after 1977, when the CSL rose about two meters until the early 1990s. Using a simple equation of hydrologic
balance for the Caspian Sea basin to predict the CSL, we show that the model is able to reproduce the observed CSL changes
at interannual to multidecadal scales. The correlation coefficient between the simulated and observed annual CSL changes is
0.91 and the model is able to reproduce the abrupt shift in CSL which occurred after 1977. Analysis of the climatologies before
and after 1977 indicate that the CSL rise was mostly due to an increase in precipitation over the northern basin and a decrease
in evaporation over the sea, primarily during the warm season. We plan to apply our model to the investigation of the response
of the CSL to anthropogenic climate forcings. 相似文献
5.
Long-term variations of the Caspian Sea level occur mainly due to river runoff variations (the variations of the Volga River runoff is of primary importance here). In this case, the observed and reconstructed variations of the Caspian Sea level can serve as a standard for assessing the quality of the model runoff simulated by climate models. To solve this problem, a number of detailed maps of the Caspian Sea are prepared for the series of regression and transgression stages. These data are used for verifying the results of some numerical experiments carried out within the framework of CMIP5/PMIP3. It is demonstrated that the model data can be verified depending on how well the models simulate the present-day (instrumentally observed) variations of the decadal scale reconstructed in recent 1000 years of variations: the transition from the Derbent regression to the New Caspian transgression (the 5th phase) with the insignificant sea level drop in the late 19th century and under conditions of large regression during the period of the late Pleistocene glaciation maximum. 相似文献
6.
S. V. Klyachkin 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2011,36(3):193-199
The technique and results of computations of statistical parameters of ice pile-up formation on the western coast of the northern Caspian Sea are presented. The dynamic model of ice pile-up formation on the shores is described. The main ice, meteorological, and morphologic factors influencing the shore pile-up formation are analyzed. The test computation enabling to estimate the model adequacy is described. The estimation principle of the probability of the formation of the ice pile-up of certain size is given and the distribution functions of geometrical parameters of the pile-ups on the western coast of the northern Caspian Sea are obtained. The limits of the proposed model are specially stipulated. 相似文献
7.
A. V. Kislov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(10):679-685
The variability ofthe level and area ofthe Caspian Sea during the Late Glacial Maximum and Holocene is analyzed. It is found that sea level variations during the period of quasisteady Holocene climate can be represented as a result of the accumulation of small anomalies in the water regime, i.e., as a manifestation of the self-developing system. The model of the Caspian Sea water balance was used to test this hypothesis. Empirical data on various-scale sea level variations are presented, and an attempt to explain their nature is made. The origin of large transgressions and regressions is analyzed. 相似文献
8.
A. V. Frolov V. V. Asmus I. V. Zemlyanov O. I. Zil’bershtein V. A. Krovotyntsev V. A. Martyshchenko E. A. Mironov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2009,34(3):148-158
In accordance with the contract of the LUKOIL Oil Company, a cooperation of the Roshydromet organizations (Planeta Research Center for Space Hydrometeorology, a main contractor, Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, and State Oceanographic Institute) carried out in 2008 complex studies of the hydrometeorological and ice conditions for the Filanovskii oil- and gas-field facility construction on the northwestern shelf of the Caspian Sea. Three expeditions were organized and conducted within that project: a helicopter ice research expedition (specialists from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute carried out a huge volume of measurements of physicomechanic properties of level, rafted and hummocked ice, and morphometric characteristics of ice piling, hummocks, and stamukhas); specialists from the State Oceanographic Institute organized a ship expedition on studying sea ground exaration formed due to impacts of ice formations (hummocks and stamukhas) using hydro-radar and echo-sounder surveys as well as a complex hydrometeorological and hydrochemical expedition with five autonomous buoy stations mounted in two months. From the moment of ice formation to the end of the expedition activity, an operational space monitoring of the northwestern Caspian Sea was carried out at the Planeta Research Center for Space Hydrometeorology. Based on the NOAA, TERRA, and AQUA satellite data, corrected and geographically fixed satellite images of the area of activity were issued with a periodicity of 6 times per day; index maps on the ice situation (twice a week) and ice situation forecasts (lead-time of 1–7 days). Besides, long-term series of satellite data on the northwestern Caspian Sea are collected and processed: their results are used for estimating seasonal and interannual variability of the drift ice and fast ice. Specialists of the Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation completed the work on processing and analysis of library materials, research/technical reports, handbooks, expedition observational data, and on hydrodynamic and probability modeling of long-term series of hydrological, meteorological, and partly ice data. In particular, basic characteristics of the hydrological regime (sea level, currents, and waving) are calculated for the place of the oil platform location and along the pipeline routing. Tentative local specifications on the hydrometeorological regime in the Filanovskii field are worked out based on the results of the work performed. 相似文献
9.
The observational data on sea level at Tyulenii Island station were compared with the results of the Caspian Sea level simulation with the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with different spatial horizontal resolution (3 and 1 nautical miles). The sea motion is induced by the air pressure gradients and tangential wind stress that are obtained from the COSMO model forecast and specified on the surface. The results of diagnostic calculations of the sea level for June-October 2014 and 60 forecasts for September 2014 demonstrated that the model with the 1-mile resolution meets the simulation accuracy requirements of the Hydrometcenter of Russia and can be used for the short-range forecasting of the Caspain Sea level. 相似文献
10.
V. V. Asmus E. V. Vasilenko V. V. Zatyagalova N. P. Ivanova V. A. Krovotyntsev A. A. Maksimov I. S. Trenina 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(10):686-696
A number of technologies have been developed in the Planeta Research Center for Space Hydrometeorology to provide the satellite monitoring of sea ice cover and water parameters for the Caspian Sea. These technologies produce maps of sea ice, sea ice drift, tracking of near-surface water fluxes, automated classification of ice and water objects, surface wind, and sea surface temperature. Satellite-based products are used for operational hydrometeorology and climate studies of the Caspian Sea environment. A specialized web service for the preparation and comprehensive analysis of satellite data on hydrometeorological and ice conditions in the Caspian Sea was developed to provide information on ice cover characteristics, surface wind, and sea surface temperature. 相似文献
11.
Weather patterns of the cold season in the studied region of the Caspian Sea are quite complicated; ice processes here represent an actual threat for hydrotechnical and other engineering constructions located both on the coast and the Northern Caspian Sea shelf, as well as for the navigation in the ice covered sea. Analysis of the materials obtained from the researches performed in November 2007–March 2008 showed that weather patterns of the 2007–2008 cold season in the Northern Caspian Sea formed under the influence of synoptic processes differed from the multiyear norm. The unusually high frequency of anticyclonic processes (especially, the Siberian anticyclone) defined the low monthly average air temperature in January that was 2–5°C below the climatologic norm over the entire Northern Caspian water area. 相似文献
12.
S. K. Popov O. I. Zil’bershtein A. L. Lobov M. M. Chumakov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2009,34(12):801-809
The Caspian Sea level and flow velocity are calculated with a three-dimensional baroclinic model with free surface using the
reanalysis data on meteorological variables for 1948–2004. The results are compared with the data on the sea level observations
at the coastal stations. It is shown that the model adequately reproduces intraannual changes of the sea level. For effective
computations with multiprocessor computers, a parallel model version is developed, which has a significant advantage of the
usual version in the computation speed. 相似文献
13.
Albert J. Semtner Jr. 《Climatic change》1984,6(2):109-130
A numerical model is constructed to evaluate the effect of river diversions on the circulation of the Arctic Ocean, including the climatically important response in the extent of sea ice. The ocean model solves the primitive equations of motion in finite-difference form for the irregular geometry of the Arctic Ocean and Greenland/Norwegian Sea, using 110 km horizontal grid spacing and up to 13 unevenly spaced levels in the vertical. Annual mean atmospheric conditions and river discharges are specified from observations. The presence of sea ice is diagnosed on the basis of model ocean temperature; and the effects of sea ice on the surface fluxes of momentum, heat, and salt are included in a simplified way. Lateral exchanges at the southernmost boundary are held near observed values but respond to circulation changes in the Greenland/Norwegian Sea. Three equilibrium solutions are obtained by eighty-year integrations from simple initial conditions: the first with inflow from all rivers, the second with one-third of the inflow diverted from four major rivers (the Ob, Yenesei, Dvina, and Pechora), and the third with total diversion from those rivers. The middle case corresponds to maximal diversions which are either planned or envisioned by the Soviet Union over the next fifty years, whereas the final extreme case is run in the event that model sensitivity is low relative to that of nature.The control integration gives a good simulation of known water masses and currents. In the Central Arctic, for example, the model correctly predicts a strong shallow halocline, a relatively warm intermediate layer of Atlantic origin, and a temperature jump across the deep Lomonosov Ridge. The overall pattern of surface salinity and the margin of the pack ice are also properly simulated.When runoff into the marginal Kara and Barents Seas is diverted, either in part or in full, almost no effect on the halocline results in the Central Arctic. In particular, deep convection does not develop in the Eurasian Basin, the possibility of which was suggested by Aagaard and Coachman (1975). The vertical stability within the two marginal seas is considerably decreased by the total diversion of four rivers, but not to the point of convective overturning. The surface currents in this area change to confine the water with increased salinity to the shelf region. At deeper levels, an increased salinity tongue spreads into the deep basins of the ice-free Greenland/Norwegian Sea, where existing deep convection is slightly enhanced. As a result, there is some additional heat loss from the Atlantic layer before it enters the Central Arctic. The ice extent remains nearly the same as before within the Kara and Barents Seas. In fact, since modified bottom currents over the continental shelf bring in less heat from the Greenland Sea, an increased thickness of sea ice may result there, in spite of reduced vertical stability. These model responses are generally in agreement with those suggested by Micklin (1981) and by Soviet investigations of the effect of river diversions. These annualmean results should be regarded as tentative, pending confirmation by studies which include the seasonal cycles of runoff and atmospheric forcing.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
14.
Presented are the results of measurements of some oceanological parameters of the Caspian Sea carried out on the territory of oil and gas production in the Apsheron marine area in 2007–2012. The results are compared with the data of analogous measurements carried out in preceding years under different regimes of sea level fluctuations. 相似文献
15.
E. A. Zakharchuk 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2009,34(6):371-378
The characteristics of currents and sea level wave perturbations of synoptic scale in the Chukchi Sea are compared with well-known dispersion relations of low-frequency waves of different types. This comparison allowed identifying the currents and sea level wave perturbations as internal Kelvin waves and barotropic and baroclinic topographic waves. Assessments of statistical relations between wave perturbations of currents and different meteorological characteristics showed that the energy supply of low-frequency waves is provided sporadically by various components of anemobaric (wind-induced) forces in the local areas of the Chukchi Sea and the Bering Strait. 相似文献
16.
Jianhong WANG Meiqi LI X.San LIANG Xing WANG Feng XUE Mo PENG Chunsheng MIAO 《大气科学进展》2018,35(7):826-838
The asymmetrical structure of typhoon-induced ocean eddies(TIOEs) in the East China Sea(including the Yellow Sea)and the accompanying air–sea interaction are studied using reanalysis products. Thirteen TIOEs are analyzed and divided into three groups with the k-prototype method: Group A with typhoons passing through the central Yellow Sea; Group B with typhoons re-entering the sea from the western Yellow Sea after landing on continental China; and Group C with typhoons occurring across the eastern Yellow Sea near to the Korean Peninsula. The study region is divided into three zones(Zones Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ) according to water depth and the Kuroshio position. The TIOEs in Group A are the strongest and could reverse part of the Kuroshio stream, while TIOEs in the other two groups are easily deformed by topography. The strong currents of the TIOEs impact on the latent heat flux distribution and upward transport, which facilitates the typhoon development. The strong divergence within the TIOEs favors an upwelling-induced cooling. A typical TIOE analysis shows that the intensity of the upwelling of TIOEs is proportional to the water depth, but its magnitude is weaker than the upwelling induced by the topography. In Zones Ⅰ and Ⅱ, the vertical dimensions of TIOEs and their strong currents are much less than the water depths.In shallow water Zone Ⅲ, a reversed circulation appears in the lower layer. The strong currents can lead to a greater, faster,and deeper energy transfer downwards than at the center of TIOEs. 相似文献
17.
A three-dimensional nonstationary baroclinic model of the Barents Sea is under consideration. The simulation was performed with allowance for all basic factors influencing the current: wind, pressure, tides, inhomogeneous water density, and flows across the open boundaries. Stationary and nonstationary sea dynamics has been simulated. It is found that an instantaneous flow pattern is highly variable and does not coincide with the schemes of a general drift. The main contribution to variability is made by tidal oscillations. Periodically, the tide and wind form vortex structures in different parts of the Barents Sea. The model is developed and used for getting data on currents on open boundaries of local models of different sea sites for calculating the transport of suspended substances when laying the subwater gas pipeline from the Shtokman gas condensate field to Kola Peninsula. A brief review of measurement data and results of model simulation of the currents in the Barents Sea is prepared. 相似文献
18.
Jason P. Evans 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,99(3-4):389-402
In this study, the ability of a regional climate model, based on MM5, to simulate the climate of the Middle East at the beginning of the twenty-first century is assessed. The model is then used to simulate the changes due to global warming over the twenty-first century. The regional climate model displays a negative bias in temperature throughout the year and over most of the domain. It does a good job of simulating the precipitation for most of the domain, though it performs relatively poorly over the southeast Black Sea and southwest Caspian Sea. Using boundary conditions obtained from CCSM3, the model was run for the first and last 5 years of the twenty-first century. The results show widespread warming, with a maximum of ~10 K in interior Iran during summer. It also found some cooling in the southeast Black Sea region during spring and summer that is related to increases in snowfall in the region, a longer snowmelt season, and generally higher soil moisture and latent heating through the summer. The results also show widespread decreases in precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean and Turkey. Precipitation increases were found over the southeast Black Sea, southwest Caspian Sea, and Zagros mountain regions during all seasons except summer, while the Saudi desert region receives increases during summer and autumn. Changes in the dominant precipitation-triggering mechanisms were also investigated. The general trend in the dominant mechanism reflects a change away from the direct dependence on storm tracks and towards greater precipitation triggering by upslope flow of moist air masses. The increase in precipitation in the Saudi desert region is triggered by changes in atmospheric stability brought about by the intrusion of the intertropical convergence zone into the southernmost portion of the domain. 相似文献
19.
Diansky N. A. Stepanov D. V. Fomin V. V. Chumakov M. M. 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2020,45(1):29-38
Based on the numerical simulation of water circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk in 1986 to 2015, the impact of deep cyclones on the circulation off the northeastern coast of Sakhalin is studied. The circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk is simulated with the COSMO-Ru-INMOM-CICE model configuration, where the COSMO-Ru and INMOM resolve explicitly the mesoscale atmosphere and ocean dynamics and the CICE resolves the ice cover evolution. The extreme atmospheric events associated with the intensive cyclone activity over the Sea of Okhotsk during the cold season are classified. It is found that high velocity is typical of the cyclones coming to the sea from Sakhalin, and wind speed on the periphery is higher for the cyclones coming to the Sea of Okhotsk from the south and southwest. The analysis of water circulation response off the northeastern coast of Sakhalin demonstrates that the meridional current velocity on the shelf increased by several times from the sea surface to the bottom for all types of cyclones. On the edge of the shelf, southern currents intensified in the surface and bottom layers during the passage of cyclones and at the intermediate depths during the passage of fronts. On the continental slope, southern currents intensified in the surface, intermediate, and bottom layers depending on the type of extreme events.
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