共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
Walter W. Immerzeel L. P. H. van Beek M. Konz A. B. Shrestha M. F. P. Bierkens 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):721-736
The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future development of the glaciers and the runoff using an ensemble of downscaled climate model data in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. The analysis shows that both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase which results in a steady decline of the glacier area. The river flow is projected to increase significantly due to the increased precipitation and ice melt and the transition towards a rain river. Rain runoff and base flow will increase at the expense of glacier runoff. However, as the melt water peak coincides with the monsoon peak, no shifts in the hydrograph are expected. 相似文献
2.
气候影响下以融雪水补给为主的河川径流变化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
马玉梅 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2008,2(1):32-34
以气象文献资料为基础,结合区域水文代表站1961—2000年的资料,分析了气候影响下融雪水补给的河川径流的变化过程,建立年平均气温、季平均气温序列,利用距平分析法、多年平均降水量与多年平均径流量相关法、模比系数差积曲线图等方法,分析了区域增温变暖趋势,与全国、全球增温变暖趋势情况大致相似。年径流量从80年代以来随气候的变化呈上升趋势,以气温的增温变暖、降水的增多为主要影响因子,分析了区域内河川径流的水量变化。 相似文献
3.
Estimating hydrological characteristics in the Amu Darya River basin under climate change conditions
N. A. Agal’tseva M. V. Bolgov T. Yu. Spektorman M. D. Trubetskova V. E. Chub 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2011,36(10):681-689
Under consideration are results of solving the problem of the river water content estimation under conditions of uncertainties
of climate change forecasts and the catchment state with a reference to the Amu Darya River basin. When constructing regional
climate models, one selected a multimodel approach using the results of several global models and a statistical downscaling
method that made the climate scenarios more detailed. The estimates demonstrated that in the medium- and long-term perspective,
the Amu Darya River runoff is expected to decrease. As a result of the Bayesian ideology application, using the calculations
got with a total probability formula, a prognostic probability curve of an annual river runoff supply of the basin rivers
was derived based on different weights given to the estimates of a mean value for different climate scenarios. Prognostic
characteristics of the annual runoff for the Amu Darya basin rivers are estimated in a form acceptable for hydrologic and
hydroeconomic application. 相似文献
4.
5.
该文用Mann-Kendall方法对近50年海河流域山区20个子流域的径流及降水的变化趋势进行了显著性检验, 结合降水, 径流及气温的年代距平值的同步分析以及径流对气候变化的敏感性研究结果, 对近50年海河流域径流的变化趋势, 提出了一个半定量分析的研究思路和方法。提出影响径流变化的三种类型:以气候暖干化为主, 人类活动为辅的径流显著衰减型;以人类活动为主, 气候暖干化为辅的径流显著衰减型;人类活动与气候变异都不明显, 径流无显著变化的类型。分析结果展示了气候、人类活动与水之间的相互作用。这种相互作用, 给径流的变化趋势分析和成因分析带来了复杂性与困难, 也给气候变化对水资源的影响研究提出了挑战。 相似文献
6.
辽河流域属于气候变暖较为显著区域,增温幅度比全球和全国的增温幅度都要高。同时辽河流域也是水资源较为匮乏且需求量大的地区,因此气候变化对水资源影响问题也更值得关注。基于长期历史观测气象水文数据和未来不同情景下气候变化预估资料,建立评估气候变化与径流量的关系,预估未来气候变化对径流量的可能影响,为辽河流域应对气候变化决策提供科学依据。结果表明:1961—2020年,辽河流域气温为持续上升趋势,降水没有明显的增减趋势,但存在阶段性变化;辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系,具有较为一致的长期变化趋势与特征,年降水量与径流量相关数达到0.6以上。日降水量与径流量相关分析表明,降水发生后次日且为大雨降水等级(即日降水量≥25 mm)时,两者相关系数可高达0.85;敏感性试验和模式模拟试验表明,径流量对气候变化有明显的响应,降水增加(减少)、气温降低(升高),则径流量增加(减少);在未来RCP8.5排放情景下气温升高趋势最为明显,未来径流量也为显著增加趋势;RCP2.6排放情景下气温增加的幅度最小,未来径流量也表现为无明显增减趋势;RCP4.5情景下,气温增加的幅度居中,未来径流量则为减少趋势。 相似文献
7.
《Global Environmental Change》1999,9(2):139-156
This paper examines the impacts of climate change on various forms of water resources and on some critical water management issues. The study area is the Aliakmon river basin including three subbasins of hydrological interest located in northern Greece. A monthly conceptual water balance model was calibrated for each subbasin separately, using historical hydrometeorological data. This model was applied to estimate runoff values at the outlet of each subbasin under different climate change scenarios. Two equilibrium scenarios (UKHI, CCC) referring to years 2020, 2050 and 2100 and one transient scenario (UKTR) referring to years 2032 and 2080 were implied. It was found that reduction of the mean annual runoff and mean winter runoff values, as well as serious reduction of the summer runoff values would occur in all cases and basins. However, the runoff values for November, December and January were increased, whereas the spring runoff values were decreased, leading to a shifting of the wet period towards December and severe prolongation of the dry period. Moreover, the results indicate that all subbasins exhibit almost the same behavior under the different climate change scenarios, while the equilibrium scenarios (UKHI, CCC) seem to give more reasonable and consistent results than the transient scenario (UKTR). Finally, the negative effects of the climatically induced changes on the hydroelectric production and the water use for agricultural purposes in the study basin were assessed. 相似文献
8.
River discharge and freshwater runoff to the Barents Sea under present and future climate conditions
River discharge forms a major freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean, and as such it has the potential to influence the oceanic
circulation. As the hydrology of Arctic river basins is dominated by cryospheric processes such as snow accumulation and snowmelt,
it may also be highly sensitive to a change in climate. Estimating the water balance of these river basins is therefore important,
but it is complicated by the sparseness of observations and the large uncertainties related to the measurement of snowfalls.
This study aims at simulating the water balance of the Barents Sea drainage basin in Northern Europe under present and future
climate conditions. We used a regional climate model to drive a large-scale hydrological model of the area. Using simulated
precipitation derived from a climate model led to an overestimation of the annual discharge in most river basins, but not
in all. Under the B2 scenario of climate change, the model simulated a 25% increase in freshwater runoff, which is proportionally
larger than the projected precipitation increase. As the snow season is 30–50 day shorter, the spring discharge peak is shifted
by about 2–3 weeks, but the hydrological regime of the rivers remains dominated by snowmelt. 相似文献
9.
Although representation of hydrology is included in all regional climate models (RCMs), the utility of hydrological results from RCMs varies considerably from model to model. Studies to evaluate and compare the hydrological components of a suite of RCMs and their use in assessing hydrological impacts from future climate change were carried out over Europe. This included using different methods to transfer RCM runoff directly to river discharge and coupling different RCMs to offline hydrological models using different methods to transfer the climate change signal between models. The work focused on drainage areas to the Baltic Basin, the Bothnian Bay Basin and the Rhine Basin. A total of 20 anthropogenic climate change scenario simulations from 11 different RCMs were used. One conclusion is that choice of GCM (global climate model) has a larger impact on projected hydrological change than either selection of emissions scenario or RCM used for downscaling. 相似文献
10.
Recent and Future Climate Change in Northwest China 总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24
Yafeng Shi Yongping Shen Ersi Kang Dongliang Li Yongjian Ding Guowei Zhang Ruji Hu 《Climatic change》2007,80(3-4):379-393
As a consequence of global warming and an enhanced water cycle, the climate changed in northwest China, most notably in the Xinjiang area in the year 1987. Precipitation, glacial melt water and river runoff and air temperature increased continuously during the last decades, as did also the water level of inland lakes and the frequency of flood disasters. As a result, the vegetation cover is improved, number of days with sand-dust storms reduced. From the end of the 19th century to the 1970s, the climate was warm and dry, and then changed to warm and wet. The effects on northwest China can be classified into three classes by using the relation between precipitation and evaporation increase. If precipitation increases more than evaporation, runoff increases and lake water levels rise. We identify regions with: (1) notable change, (2) slight change and (3) no change. The future climate for doubled CO2 concentration is simulated in a nested approach with the regional climate model-RegCM2. The annual temperature will increase by 2.7 ^ C and annual precipitation by 25%. The cooling effect of aerosols and natural factors will reduce this increase to 2.0 ^C and 19% of precipitation. As a consequence, annual runoff may increase by more than 10%. 相似文献
11.
12.
Responses of global ocean circulation and temperature to freshwater runoff from major rivers were studied by blocking regional runoff in the global ocean general circulation model(OGCM)developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Runoff into the tropical Atlantic,the western North Pacific,and the Bay of Bengal and northern Arabian Sea were selectively blocked.The blocking of river runoff first resulted in a salinity increase near the river mouths(2 practical salinity units).The saltier and,therefore,denser water was then transported to higher latitudes in the North Atlantic,North Pacific,and southern Indian Ocean by the mean currents.The subsequent density contrasts between northern and southern hemispheric oceans resulted in changes in major ocean currents.These anomalous ocean currents lead to significant temperature changes(1°C-2°C)by the resulting anomalous heat transports.The current and temperature anomalies created by the blocked river runoff propagated from one ocean basin to others via coastal and equatorial Kelvin waves.This study suggests that river runoff may be playing an important role in oceanic salinity,temperature,and circulations;and that partially or fully blocking major rivers to divert freshwater for societal purposes might significantly change ocean salinity,circulations,temperature,and atmospheric climate.Further studies are necessary to assess the role of river runoff in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. 相似文献
13.
E. M. Gusev O. N. Nasonova E. E. Kovalev G. V. Aizel’ 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(6):397-403
The possibility ofassessing changes in river runofftill 2100 for a number oflarge river basins of the world for a wide range of natural conditions is investigated. The assessment is based on the SWAP (Soil Water–Atmosphere–Plants) model using meteorological data as inputs which were simulated with different general atmosphere–ocean circulation models in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. The possible climatic changes in annual runoff for some rivers by the end of the 21st century are compared with the natural interannual variability of river runoff caused by weather noise. 相似文献
14.
This study investigates the connections between climate fluctuations and sardine and anchovy production in the NW Mediterranean, taking the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) as an indicator of climate variability. The basic working hypothesis is that sardine and anchovy productivity is influenced by the WeMOi, a proxy for the local environmental conditions such as sea surface temperature (SST) and river runoff. Sardine and anchovy landings (1974–2009) in the Catalan Coast and landings per unit of effort (LPUE) were used as proxy for recruitment. The results demonstrated a clear link between climate fluctuations and sardine and anchovy production. Positive WeMOi values were significantly correlated with low SST, high river runoff and high LPUE, that is, with better-than-average recruitment of sardine and anchovy. Conversely, negative WeMOi values were associated with high SST, low river runoff and low LPUE. During the negative WeMOi phases (such as that at the end of the analyzed period), environmental conditions are unfavourable for the overall biological productivity in the NW Mediterranean and would decrease the survival, growth, condition and reproduction of sardine and anchovy during their life cycle. Despite the evidences on the appropriateness of the NAOi as an indicator of the climate in Europe and its impact on some biological variables, we suggest that using a regional index, such as the WeMOi, can provide a more accurate representation of the environmental conditions affecting small pelagic fish production in the NW Mediterranean. 相似文献
15.
中国当代土地利用变化对黄河流域径流影响 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
使用区域气候模式(RegCM3)和大尺度汇流模型(LRM),研究中国地区土地利用/植被覆盖变化对黄河流域降雨径流过程的影响。RegCM3嵌套于欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)再分析资料ERA40,分别进行了中国区域在实际植被和理想植被分布情况下两个各15年(1987～2001年)时间长度的积分试验。随后,RegCM3 两个试验的输出径流结果分别用来驱动LRM。与观测资料的对比分析表明,在实际土地利用状况下,LRM能较好地模拟黄河河川径流的季节和年际变化。研究结果指出,当代土地利用引起了冬季黄河上游部分地区降水减少,中下游地区降水增加;引起夏季整个黄河流域降水的减少。总体来说,当代土地利用变化引起黄河流域年平均降水的减少。对于水文站河川径流量,除了冬春季略有增加外,其他月份河川径流均会减少,并且在9月减少最多。土地利用引起的植被退化造成黄河径流的大幅度减少,并且越向下游减少幅度越大,这可能是引起黄河下游断流的重要原因之一。 相似文献
16.
Jinwon Kim 《Climatic change》2005,68(1-2):153-168
The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the frequency of extreme hydrologic events in the Western United States (WUS) for the 10-yr period of 2040–2049 are examined using dynamically downscaled regional climate change signals. For assessing the changes in the occurrence of hydrologic extremes, downscaled climate change signals in daily precipitation and runoff that are likely to indicate the occurrence of extreme events are examined. Downscaled climate change signals in the selected indicators suggest that the global warming induced by increased CO2 is likely to increase extreme hydrologic events in the WUS. The indicators for heavy precipitation events show largest increases in the mountainous regions of the northern California Coastal Range and the Sierra Nevada. Increased cold season precipitation and increased rainfall-portion of precipitation at the expense of snowfall in the projected warmer climate result in large increases in high runoff events in the Sierra Nevada river basins that are already prone to cold season flooding in todays climate. The projected changes in the hydrologic characteristics in the WUS are mainly associated with higher freezing levels in the warmer climate and increases in the cold season water vapor influx from the Pacific Ocean. 相似文献
17.
Arctic environments are generally believed to be highly sensitive to human-induced climatic change. In this paper, we explore the impacts on the hydrological system of the sub-arctic Tana Basin in Northernmost Finland and Norway. In contrast with previous studies, attention is not only given to river discharge, but also to the spatial patterns in snow coverage and evapotranspiration. We used a distributed water balance model that was coupled to a regional climate model in order to calculate a scenario of climate change by the end of this century. Three different model experiments were performed, adopting different approaches to using the climate model output in the hydrological model runs. The results were largely consistent, indicating a much shorter snow season and, accordingly, decreased sublimation, an increase in evapotranspiration, and a shift in the annual runoff peak. As the snow-free season is extended, the amount of solar radiation that is received during this period increases significantly. The results also show important local differences in the hydrological response to climate change. For example, in the scenario runs, the snow season was more than 30 days shorter at higher elevations, but in some of the river valleys, this was up to 70 days. 相似文献
18.
胡文峰 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2019,13(4):24-29
根据精河流域1957—2012年的气温、降水和径流量等资料,分析了精河流域近55 a来径流量的变化趋势和周期特征,研究了河川径流及对气候变化的响应关系,并建立基于多变量时间序列自回归CAR(Controlled Auto-regressive)径流预测模型。结果表明:(1)精河径流在年内分配不均,季节变化明显,夏季集中,枯水期长且枯季径流量小。6—9月为径流连续最大4个月,占全年径流量的74%。(2)从20世纪80年代开始,河川径流量增加,持续至90年代,在21世纪有减小的趋势,1981—2005年平均年径流总量比1957—1980年增加了3.24%。(3)精河流域年径流量序列在21 a和13 a左右的振荡周期最为明显,其次是32 a和9 a,而其中的21 a和13 a时间尺度上的振荡是全时域的。(4)建立了径流与降水和气温的CAR模型,发现拟合平均相对误差为6.54%,均方根误差为0.039。用CAR模型模拟河流年径流量误差在可接受范围内,可以利用该模型对精河流域年径流量进行预测。 相似文献
19.
To improve the capability of numerical modeling of climate-groundwater interactions, a groundwater component and new surface/subsurface runoff schemes were incorporated into the regional climate model RegCM3, renamed RegCM3_Hydro. 20－year simulations from both models were used to investigate the effects of groundwater dynamics and surface/subsurface runoff parameterizations on regional climate over seven river basins in China. A comparison of results shows that RegCM3_Hydro reduced the positive biases of annual and summer (June, July, August) precipitation over six river basins, while it slightly increased the bias over the Huaihe River Basin in eastern China. RegCM3_Hydro also reduced the cold bias of surface air temperature from RegCM3 across years, especially for the Haihe and the Huaihe river basins, with significant bias reductions of 0.80C and 0.88C, respectively. The spatial distribution and seasonal variations of water table depth were also well captured. With the new surface and subsurface runoff schemes, RegCM3_Hydro increased annual surface runoff by 0.11－0.62 mm d－1 over the seven basins. Though previous studies found that incorporating a groundwater component tends to increase soil moisture due to the consideration of upward groundwater recharge, our present work shows that the modified runoff schemes cause less infiltration, which outweigh the recharge from groundwater and result in drier soil, and consequently cause less latent heat and more sensible heat over most of the basins. 相似文献
20.
气候变化对滦河流域水资源影响的水文模式模拟(Ⅰ)降水径流模式系统（PRMS）介绍及其在滦河流域的移植 总被引：1，自引：4，他引：1
简单介绍了引进美国地质勘查中心发展的降水径流模式系统（PRMS）。认为PRMS模式具有多种模拟功能，包含的物理过程也较全面，是当前世界上较好的水文学模式。将PRMS模式系统移植到滦河流域，并对其模拟能力进行了初步检验。结果表明，模式系统在我国滦河流域的移植比较成功，而且能够较真实地再现滦河流域河川径流量及水资源其它分量的年际及季节变化，也可以用于研究气候变化对滦河流域水资源的影响。 相似文献