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1.
郭星  潘华 《地震学报》2014,36(6):1043-1053
利用更新模型计算未来几十年内发生强震的条件概率需要给出上一次大震的离逝时间T, 而很多活动断裂上缺少历史大震的记载, 若采用泊松模型则可能会低估强震发生的概率.针对这种缺少大震离逝时间的活动断裂, 本文提出一种以记载完整的强震平静期长度Ts为参数的条件概率计算方法. 以东昆仑断裂带塔藏段为实例, 利用本文给出的条件概率计算方法得到该段未来50年发生强震的可能性为0.0649.   相似文献   

2.
Introduction Haiyuan fault is a major seismogenic fault in north-central China. One of the most devastat-ing great earthquake in the 20th century occurred near Haiyuan in northwestern China on Decem-ber 16, 1920. More than 220 000 people were killed and thousands of towns and villages weredestroyed during the devastating earthquake. A 230 km long left-lateral surface rupture zone wasformed along the Haiyuan fault during the earthquake with maximum left-lateral displacement of10 m. Pale…  相似文献   

3.
Cascade rupture events often occur along large strike-slip fault zone.The 1920 AD M 81/2 earthquake ruptured all 3 segments of the Haiyuan Fault,and the Salt Lake pull-apart basin is the boundary between the west and middle segment of the fault.The data of trenching and drilling reveal 7 events occurring since last stage of late Pleistocene,and the two youngest events are associated with the historical records of 1092 AD (possibly) and 1920 AD respectively.These events are all large earthquakes with magnitude M>8,and the recurrence of them is characterized by earthquake clusters alternating with a single event.Now it is in the latest cluster which may last about 1000 years.Comparison of the paleoseismic sequence of this study and previous results reveals that the cross-basin fault in the Salt Lake pull-apart basin does not always rupture when cascade rupture events occur along the Haiyuan Fault,and likely ruptures only when the magnitude of the events is large (maybe M>8).Though there are many advantages in paleoseismic study in pull-apart basin,we should avoid getting the paleoseismic history of major strike-slip fault zones only depending on the rupture records of inner faults in pull-apart basins with large scale (maybe a width more than 3km).  相似文献   

4.
Daliangshan fault zone (DFZ) constitutes an indispensable part of Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system which is one of the main large continental strong earthquake faults in China.Puxiong Fault,the east branch of middle segment of DFZ,is the longest secondary fault.Its paleoseismic activity plays an important role in evaluating regional seismic activity level and building countermeasures of preventing and reducing the earthquake damage.The active fault mapping as well as the study of paleoseismological trench in recent years illustrates that Puxiong Fault is a slightly west-dipping high-angle left-lateral strike-slip fault with strong activity since late Pleistocene.Two trenches excavated across this fault reveal 2 and 3 paleoearthquakes that ruptured the fault at 8206 BC-1172 AD,1084-1549 AD,and 17434-7557 BC,1577-959 BC and 927-1360 AD,respectively.The OxCal model combining the results from both trenches and the another one in previous study across the fault with the historical earthquake record yields the elapsed time of~0.7ka of the latest paleoearthquake event,and the interval time is~2.3ka between the last two events.In the model,the penultimate event is considered to be recorded in all trenches.As all the three trenches are located at north part of the Puxiong Fault whose strike is apparently different from the south part,the~57km long north secondary segment is supposed to be the seismogenic structure of the paleoearthquake.According to the empirical scaling laws between magnitude and rupture length,the magnitude of the surface ruptured paleoearthquake is estimated to be more than M7 with the coseismic displacement~3.5m.However,the difference between the time of the paleoearthquake events on the middle and south segments of DFZ illustrates their independence as earthquake fracture units,and furthermore,the lower connectivity and the new generation of DFZ.  相似文献   

5.
In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recurrence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and considering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of M S≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.  相似文献   

6.
In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recurrence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and considering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of M S≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault. Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103034) and Major Research “Research on Assessment of Seismic Safety” from China Earthquake Administration during the tenth Five-year Plan.  相似文献   

7.
月亮山东麓断裂古地震活动的初步研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
月亮山东麓断裂位于海原断裂带的东段。1920年海原大地震时该断裂也发生了破裂。对该段断裂的古地震活动特征的初步研究表明,全新世以来,月亮山东断裂可能发生过5次破裂事件,主要分布在全新世的早期和末期。海原断裂带具有分段破裂的特征,因此需要对照整个断裂带的古地震活动特征,才能确定月亮山东断裂是一个独立的破裂单元还是其他段落破裂的影响段。  相似文献   

8.
卡兹克阿尔特断裂带活动特征   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
尹金辉  陈杰  郑勇刚  李锰  胡军 《中国地震》2001,17(2):221-230
卡兹克阿尔特断裂带是帕米尔和天山新生代造山带间一个重要的活动构造边界,通过对其活动构造特征的详细地质调查和大比例尺填图,可将卡兹克阿尔特断裂带进一步划分为吉勒格由特断裂带、乌恰地震断裂带和木什断裂带3段.吉勒格由特断裂带的地表破裂为一系列的断层陡坎和偏转的冲积扇,经过别尔托阔依河出山口处时,切割了T1至T3堆积阶地.断裂带在T1、T2和T3阶地的断层陡坎高度分别为0.67m、3.90m和36.50m.对采自T2阶地顶部和底部的粉砂样品进行光释光测年,测定的初步结果分别为8900aBP和10500aBP,因此对T3、T2阶地以来的滑动速率估计分别约为3.5mm/a、0.8mm/a.断裂的前缘开挖的探槽揭示出全新世以来有4次古地震活动.乌恰地震带主要切割克兹勒苏河的T3阶地后缘,沿断裂带分布有大小不等的断塞塘和断层陡坎.1985年8月23日在乌恰地震带上发生Ms7.4地震,地震最大位错为1.5m.根据断层陡坎计算出断裂的滑动速率约为0.54mm/a.卡帕河的东岸探槽同样揭示出有4次古地震活动.在乌恰地震带的东端,木什断裂带地表长度约6km,由数十条左阶排列的反向断层陡坎(坡向北)组成,沿这些断坎多处可见冲沟被断错,横跨断层陡坎的探槽揭示出3次古地震活动.  相似文献   

9.
前人在山西交城断裂带上开挖过多个探槽,揭露出全新世3次古地震事件,但其研究结果尚不能确定该断裂带全新世活动段的北部边界.近期在该断裂带北端和中段又开挖了3个大型探槽,其中在阳曲县泥屯盆地西界开挖的龙王沟探槽,是一个由多个探槽组合成的大探槽,该探槽揭示的地层断错信息,将交城断裂带全新世活动的范围向北延伸了20km.另外2个大型探槽分别为交城断裂带中段瓦窑沟东侧台地前缘的瓦窑探槽与市儿口沟西侧T1阶地前缘的新民探槽.这3个大探槽均揭示出全新世中期(14C测年值为距今5 ~ 6ka)的垆土和淤泥层,以及多组平行分布的断面,所揭示的全新世3次古地震事件具有断错事件活动的同步性,可与前人探槽揭示的全新世断层活动事件相对比.3次断错活动时间分别距今3.06 ~3.53ka、5.32ka左右或6.14ka左右、8.36ka左右;3次事件的时间间隔分别为2.02 ~ 2.84ka和2.22 ~ 3.04ka.这些断错事件的同震垂直位移为1.5~4.7m,显示了7级以上地表破裂型的强震活动.最后讨论了探槽中14C测年样品的影响因素.  相似文献   

10.
1927年古浪8级地震的破裂习性及破裂机制的数值模拟   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
1927年古浪8级地震是继1920年海原8.5级地震之后发生在海原一祁连山断裂带上的另一次特大地震。对这次地震的破裂习性,前人的研究结果存在较大分歧。本文在多探槽揭露和地面追踪调查基础上,结合相关的历史资料分析后,认为本次地震是由构成古浪推覆体的天桥沟一黄羊川断裂、皇城双塔断裂冬青顶断裂段以及武威一天祝隐伏断裂等共同作用的结果。对古浪推覆体平面和剖面变形机制的有限元数值模拟结果显示,其应力和应变的集中区主要分布在天桥沟一黄羊川断裂西段、皇城一双塔断裂冬青顶一带以及武威一天祝隐伏断裂和古浪一双塔断裂所在的古浪峡一带,这与地震地表破裂带的展布是一致的,同时也进一步说明了1927年古浪8级地震是该推覆体整体活动的结果。  相似文献   

11.
1668年郯城8*(1/2)级地震断层及其破裂机制   总被引:9,自引:2,他引:9       下载免费PDF全文
李家灵  晁洪太 《地震地质》1994,16(3):229-237
根据近年来野外考察所获新资料,总结了1668年郯城81/2级地震断层的几何学、运动学特征,并对地震断层的破裂机制提出了新见解。1668年郯城8*(1/2)级地震断层北起莒县土岭南至郯城窑上,全长130km,由5条运动性质不同的断层段组成。中部以走滑运动为主,两端部以逆冲性质为主。断裂首先在强走滑的中部产生破裂点,并向南北两个方向传播,造成了主震及强余震序列的发生。全新世以来多次主地震事件有着相同的破裂机制  相似文献   

12.
Located at the bend of the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Haiyuan fault zone is a boundary fault of the stable Alashan block, the stable Ordos block and the active Tibet block, and is the most significant fault zone for the tectonic deformation and strong earthquake activity. In 1920, a M8.5 earthquake occurred in the eastern segment of the fault, causing a surface rupture zone of about 240km. After that, the segment has been in a state of calmness in seismic activity, and no destructive earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above have occurred. Determining the current activity of the Haiyuan fault zone is very important and necessary for the analysis and assessment of its future seismic hazard. To study activity of the Haiyuan fault zone, the degree of fault coupling and the future seismic hazard, domestic and foreign scholars have carried out a lot of research using geology methods and GPS geodetic techniques, but these methods have certain limitations. The geology method is a traditional classical method of fault activity research, but dislocation measurement can only be performed on a local good fault outcrop. There are a limited number of field measurement points and the observation results are not equally limited depending on the sampling location and sampling method. The distribution of GPS stations is sparse, especially in the near-fault area, there is almost no GPS data. Therefore, the spatial resolution of the deformation field features obtained by GPS is low, and there are certain limitations in the kinematic parameter inversion using this method. In this study, we obtain the average InSAR line-of-sight deformation field from the Maomaoshan section to the mid-1920s earthquake rupture segment of the Haiyuan earthquake in the period from 2003 to 2010 based on the PSInSAR technique. The results show that there are obvious differences between the slip rates of the two walls of the fault in the north and the south, which are consistent with the motion characteristics of left-lateral strike-slip in the Haiyuan fault zone. Through the analysis of the high-density cross-fault deformation rate profile of the Laohushan segment, it is determined that the creep length is about 19km. Based on the two-dimensional arctangent model, the fault depth and deep slip rate of different locations in the Haiyuan fault zone are obtained. The results show that the slip rate and the locking depth of the LHS segment change significantly from west to east, and the slip rate decreases from west to east, decreasing from 7.6mm/a in the west to 4.5mm/a in the easternmost. The western part of the LHS segment and the middle part are in a locked state. The western part has a locking depth of 4.2~4.4km, and the middle part has a deeper locking depth of 6.9km, while the eastern part is less than 1km, that is, the shallow surface is creeping, and the creep rate is 4.5~4.8mm/a. On the whole, the 1920 earthquake's rupture segment of the Haiyuan fault zone is in a locked state, and both the slip rate and the locking depth are gradually increased from west to east. The slip rate is increased from 3.2mm/a in the western segment to 5.4mm/a in the eastern segment, and the locking depth is increased from 4.8km in the western segment to 7.5km in the eastern segment. The results of this study refine the understanding of the slip rate and the locking depth of the different segments of the Haiyuan fault zone, and provide reference information for the investigation of the strain accumulation state and regional seismic hazard assessment of different sections of the fault zone.  相似文献   

13.
甘孜-玉树断裂带东南段晚第四纪活动性研究   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
以甘孜-玉树断裂带东南段的地质地貌为研究对象,在遥感解译的基础上,通过对典型地区的详细野外调查和探槽研究对该段晚第四纪活动性进行研究。在断裂沿线的生康乡、仁果乡、错阿乡、日阿乡进行了断错地貌分析和晚第四纪滑动速率计算, 生康区的水平滑动速率为(7.6±0.5)mm/a, 垂直滑动速率为(1.1±0.1)mm/a; 仁果区的水平滑动速率为(8.0±0.3)mm/a,垂直滑动速率为(1.1±0.1)mm/a; 错阿区的水平滑动速率为(10.3±0.4)mm/a; 日阿区的水平滑动速率为(10.8±0.8)mm/a, 垂直滑动速率为(1.1±0.1)mm/a。在仁果乡和错阿乡进行了探槽研究,两处探槽都揭示了多次古地震事件,虽然揭露的断层构造样式有所不同,但总体上都是以走滑为主兼有一定的逆冲分量。综合古地震事件和滑动速率分析表明,甘孜-玉树断裂带东南段晚第四纪尤其是全新世以来活动剧烈。  相似文献   

14.
对历史记载的公元1738年玉树西北地震的震级及其发震构造目前仍存有争议。卫星影像解译和野外调查发现沿甘孜-玉树断裂当江段分布一条长约75km的左旋走滑地震地表破裂带,其最大同震水平位移约2.1m。综合分析该地表破裂带特征、探槽揭露信息、测年结果以及历史文献记载等资料,认为当江段应为1738年玉树西北地震的发震断层,基于震例类比和经验公式估算该次地震的震级为71/2级。沿甘孜-玉树断裂的历史地震破裂分布显示,玉树段在隆宝镇以西存在近50km长的破裂空段;当江段距1738年地震的离逝时间也可能已经接近其地震复发周期,上述两个段落未来均存在大震危险。  相似文献   

15.
Spatial distribution of sources of strong and large earthquakes on the Xiaojiang fault zone in eastern Yunnan is studied according to historical earthquake data. 7 segments of relatively independent sources or basic units of rupture along the fault zone have been identified preliminarily. On every segment, time intervals between main historical earthquakes are generally characterized by “time-predictable” recurrence behavior with indetermination. A statistic model for the time intervals between earthquakes of the fault zone has been preliminarily established. And a mathematical method has been introduced into this paper to reckon average recurrence interval between earthquakes under the condition of having known the size of the last event at a specific segment. Based on these, ranges of the average recurrence intervals given confidence have been estimated for events of various sizes on the fault zone. Further, the author puts forward a real-time probabilistic model that is suitable to analyze seismic potential for individual segments along a fault zone on which earthquake recurrence intervals have been characterized by quasi-time-predictable behavior, and applies this model to calculate conditional probabilities and probability gains of earthquake recurring on the individual segments of the Xiaojiang fault zone during the period from 1991 to 2005. As a consequence, it has shown that two parts of this fault zone, from south of Dongchuan to Songming and from Chengjiang to Huaning, have relatively high likelihoods for strong or large earthquake recurring in the future. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 322–330, 1993.  相似文献   

16.
It is indicated by historical records and the exploratory trench on the Weihe fault that the Yaodian-Zhangjiawan segment of the Weihe fault zone has experienced a historical earthquake and 3 paleoearthquake events in the past 9110a. The historical earthquake, namely, event Ⅳ, occurred between 1487 and 1568 AD. The date of paleoseismic event Ⅰ is (9110 + 90) a, and the ages of events Ⅱ and Ⅲ are unknown. The coseismic vertical displacement of events Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ is 0.5m, 0.5m and 0.2m, respectively. The exploratory trench also indicates that the Yaodian-Zhangjiawan segment of the Weihe fault was active in the Holocene.  相似文献   

17.
It is deduced on the basis of field investigation that the total length of the stratigraphic fault associated with the great Haiyuan 8.5 magnitude earthquake of 1920 was 225 km. This fault was formed by 6 secondary faults with different geometric parameters, which align regularly inen echelon arrangement. Each secondary fault can be divided into three segments with different characteristics of deformation where the middle segment was mainly of the horizontal strike—slip fault while another two segments the vertical deformation as shown by the features of reverse or normal faults. It is also shown by the data of vertical and horizontal displacements that the horizontal displacement approached a maximum at the middle segment for each secondary fault and gradually decreased toward and finally disappeared at both ends of each segment while in contrast the vertical displacement was minimum at the middle and became large at both ends of the segment. The feature of the multiple peaks appeared in the deformation as shown by the earthquake displacements along the whole fault. This feature indicates that the 6 secondary faults associated with the great Haiyuan earthquake were the horizontal interrupted planes (i.e., dislocation surface) which were independent on each other, and hence each dislocation surface may represent an independent secondary fracture event of the earthquake. We thus think that the 6 relatively independent secondary events which occurred successfully might result in the great 8.5 magnitude Haiyuan earthquake. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 21–31, 1991. This project is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.  相似文献   

18.
The relationship between the latest activity of active fault and seismic events is of the utmost importance. The Tan-lu fault zone in eastern China is a major fault zone, of which the active characteristics of the segments in Jiangsu, Shandong and Anhui has been the focus of research. This study takes the Dahongshan segment of the Tanlu Fault in Sihong County as the main research area. We carried out a detailed geological survey and excavated two trenches across the steep slope on the southwest side of the Dahongshan. Each trench shows fault clearly. Combining the comparative analysis of previous work, we identified and cataloged the late Quaternary deformation events and prehistoric earthquake relics, and analyzed the activity stages and behavior of this segment. Fault gonge observed in the trench profiles shows that multiple earthquake events occurred in the fault. The faulting dislocated the Neogene sandstone, black gravel layer and gray clay layer. Brown clay layer is not broken. According to the relations of dislocated stratums, corresponding 14C and OSL samples were collected and dated. The result indicates that the Dahongshan segment of the Tanlu Fault has experienced strong earthquakes since the late Quaternary. Thrust fault, normal fault and strike-slip fault are found in the trenches. The microscopic analysis of slices from fault shows that there are many stick-creep events taking place in the area during the late Quaternary. Comprehensive analysis shows that there have been many paleoearthquakes in this region since the late Quaternary, the recent active time is the late Pleistocene, and the most recent earthquake event occurred in(12~2.5ka BP). The neotectonic activity is relatively weak in the Anhui segment(south of the Huaihe River)of Tanlu fault zone. There are difficulties in the study of late Quaternary activity. For example, uneven distribution of the Quaternary, complex geological structure, larger man-made transformation of surface and so on. The progressive research may be able to promote the study on the activity of the Anhui segment of Tanlu fault zone.  相似文献   

19.
Nine earthquakes with M≥6 have stricken the northern segment of the Red River fault zone since the historical records, including the 1652 Midu M7 earthquake and the 1925 Dali M7 earthquake. However, there have been no earthquake records of M≥6 on the middle and southern segments of the Red River Fault, since 886 AD. Is the Red River fault zone, as a boundary fault, a fault zone where there will be not big earthquake in the future or a seismogenic structure for large earthquake with long recurrence intervals?This problem puzzles the geologists for a long time. Through indoor careful interpretation of high resolution remote sensing images, and in combination with detailed field geological and geomorphic survey, we found a series of fault troughs along the section of Gasha-Yaojie on the southern segment of the Red River fault zone, the length of the Gasha-Yaojie section is over ten kilometers. At the same time, paleoseismic information and radiocarbon dating result analysis on the multiple trenches show that there exists geological evidence of seismic activity during the Holocene in the southern segment of the Red River fault zone.  相似文献   

20.
Surface rupture zone of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Introduction The 1303 Shanxi Hongtong M=8 earthquake is the earliest M=8 event determined in histori-cal records in China and the largest recorded in Shanxi fault-depression system in history. Some researchers have discussed the tectonic environment of this earthquake (DENG, et al, 1973; DENG, 1984; DENG, XU, 1994, 1995; Seismo-geological Brigade, State Seismological Bureau, Depart-ment of Geology and Geography, Peking University, 1979; LIU, XIAO, 1982; ZHANG, JIA, 1986; SU, …  相似文献   

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