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1.
A search for trends k(foE) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric E layer at Juliusruh and Slough stations is performed by the method often used by the authors to analyze trends in the F2-layer parameters. It is found that k(foE) could differ in both magnitude and even sign within different time intervals. However, the k(foE) trends have been stably negative over the last two decades for both stations and all months of the year. The k(foE) values averaged over a year are ?0.012 and ?0.005 MHz per year for Juliusruh and Slough stations, respectively. The method used in the recent paper by La?tovi?ka et al. (2016) to determine foE trends is analyzed, and it is shown that the difference in linear approximation of the dependence of the observed foE values on F10.7 within different time intervals could be interpreted not as the presence of a different foE dependence on the F10.7 index within these intervals but as the presence within them of foE trends that change the slope of the linear approximation.  相似文献   

2.
Results of observations of tidal strains of the crust in the tectonically active Elbrus area of the Northern Caucasus carried out with the use of the Baksan SSAI laser interferometer strainmeter over the period from 2003 through 2006 are presented. Harmonic analysis is performed with the help of the ETERNA software package. Statistically significant time variations in the amplitudes of the main tidal waves M 2 and O 1 are revealed. The influence of the topography on tidal strains in the Baksan gorge is estimated at 22% (an increase in the measured strain values). The reduced amplitude factors of the main diurnal (O 1) and semidiurnal (M 2) waves are underestimated. Numerical modeling of tidal anomalies produced by regional heterogeneous inclusions is performed in a 2-D approximation. The observed anomaly of the M 2 wave (12%) is shown to be due to the influence of the main magma-controlling fault associated with the deep magma source of the Elbrus dormant volcano.  相似文献   

3.
Based on calculations of the tidal Coulomb failure stress and investigations of the correlation between the Earth tide and the Ning’er earthquake sequence, the processes of fault nucleation and failure were simulated. In these simulations we consider the influence of tidal stresses using the rate- and state-dependent friction laws. Furthermore, the effects on tidal triggering due to the stress amplitude and periodic oscillation properties were investigated, and the triggering effects between the tidal normal and tidal shear stresses were compared. The results showed that the Ning’er earthquake sequence was a physical consequence of tidal effects. A transition period T0 exists between the nucleation and failure processes of a seismic fault. When the period T of stress is equal to or becomes larger than T0, the fault response becomes dependent on the periodic features of the loading stress; however, for T < T0, the response of the fault is nearly independent of the period. Both the tidal normal and tidal shear stresses have similar effect in the nucleation and failure processes; the clock changes generally increase with the maximum amplitudes of the tidal stresses. Tidal normal and tidal shear stresses with positive amplitudes mainly induce earthquake triggering; however, the triggering effects induced by negative tidal stresses are smaller and faults are not sensitive to negative tidal stresses. Our results primarily reveal the physical mechanisms of tidal stress triggering.  相似文献   

4.
Stacking velocity V C2, vertical velocity ratio γ 0, effective velocity ratio γ eff, and anisotropic parameter χ eff are correlated in the PS-converted-wave (PS-wave) anisotropic prestack Kirchhoff time migration (PKTM) velocity model and are thus difficult to independently determine. We extended the simplified two-parameter (stacking velocity V C2 and anisotropic parameter k eff) moveout equation from stacking velocity analysis to PKTM velocity model updating and formed a new four-parameter (stacking velocity V C2, vertical velocity ratio γ 0, effective velocity ratio γ eff, and anisotropic parameter k eff) PS-wave anisotropic PKTM velocity model updating and process flow based on the simplified two-parameter moveout equation. In the proposed method, first, the PS-wave two-parameter stacking velocity is analyzed to obtain the anisotropic PKTM initial velocity and anisotropic parameters; then, the velocity and anisotropic parameters are corrected by analyzing the residual moveout on common imaging point gathers after prestack time migration. The vertical velocity ratio γ 0 of the prestack time migration velocity model is obtained with an appropriate method utilizing the P- and PS-wave stacked sections after level calibration. The initial effective velocity ratio γ eff is calculated using the Thomsen (1999) equation in combination with the P-wave velocity analysis; ultimately, the final velocity model of the effective velocity ratio γ eff is obtained by percentage scanning migration. This method simplifies the PS-wave parameter estimation in high-quality imaging, reduces the uncertainty of multiparameter estimations, and obtains good imaging results in practice.  相似文献   

5.
The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log10E2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log10E2/3, and log10N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log10E2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log10Ni and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log10Ni time series in the different magnitude ranges (M ≥ Mci) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logN(ΔMi) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log10N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.  相似文献   

6.
Parameters of the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma during periods of 163 isolated substorms have been studied. It is shown that the solar wind velocity V and plasma density N remain approximately constant for at least 3 h before substorm onset Т o and 1 h after Т o . On average, the velocity of the solar wind exhibits a stable trend toward anticorrelation with its density over the whole data array. However, the situation is different if the values of V and N are considered with respect to the intensity of substorms observed during that period. With the growth of substorm intensity, quantified as the maximum absolute value of AL index, an increase in both the solar wind plasma velocity and density, at which these substorms appear, is obsreved. It has been found that the magnitude of the solar wind dynamic pressure P is closely related to the magnetosphere energy load defined as averaged values of the Kan–Lee electric field EKL and Newell parameter dΦ/dt averaged for 1 h interval before Т o . The growth of the dynamic pressure is accompanied by an increase in the load energy necessary for substorm generation. This interrelation between P and values of EKL and dΦ/dt is absent in other, arbitrarily chosen periods. It is believed that the processes accompanying increasing dynamic pressure of the solar wind result in the formation of magnetosphere conditions that increasingly impede substorm generation. Thus, the larger is P, the more solar wind energy must enter the Earth’s magnetosphere during the period of the growth phase for substorm generation. This energy is later released during the period of the substorm expansion phase and creates even more intense magnetic bays.  相似文献   

7.
The results of studying the Pc4–5 pulsation parameters based on the method of bistatic backscatter of radio waves, using the EISCAT/Heating HF facility (Tromsø, Norway) and IMAGE ground-based magnetometers (Scandinavia), are presented. The observations were performed during the morning hours on October 3, 2006, when a substorm developed on the nightside. An analysis of the observational data obtained from 1000 to 1020 UT indicated that wave-like disturbances with periods corresponding to Pc4–5 pulsations (80–240 s) existed at that time. The variations in the full vector of the ionospheric irregularity motion and the electric field strength in an artificially disturbed high-latitude ionospheric F region has been reconstructed based on simultaneous Doppler observations on two paths. A general conformity is observed among the time variations in Pc4–5 pulsations in the magnetic and ionospheric data: between the velocity amplitude (|V|) and the X component of the Earth’s magnetic field and between the irregularity motion azimuth and the Y component. Large-scale waves, corresponding to the natural resonances of magnetic field lines (small values of the azimuthal number |m| ～ 2–4), and small-scale waves (large values |m| ～ 17–20) were simultaneously registered during the experiment based on magnetic data. It has been indicated that the periods of wave-like processes registered using the method of bistatic backscatter and ground-based magnetometers were in agreement with one another. The formation of wave-like processes is explained by the nonstationary impact of the solar wind and IMF on the Earth’s magnetosphere. The variations in the IMF, according to the ACE satellite measurements, were characterized by a sharp increase in the solar wind plasma dynamic pressure that occurred at about 09 UT on October 3, 2006, and was accompanied by rapid polarity reversals of the north-ward-southward (B z) and transverse (B y) IMF components.  相似文献   

8.
We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ c and P d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.  相似文献   

9.
We consider a transversely isotropic medium with vertical axis of symmetry (VTI). Rayleigh wave displacement components in a homogeneous VTI medium contain exp(±krjz), where z is the vertical coordinate, k is the wave number, and j?=?1, 2; rj may be considered as depth-decay factor. In a VTI medium, rj can be a real or imaginary as in an isotropic medium, or it can be a complex depending on the elastic parameters of the VTI medium; if complex, r1 and r2 are complex conjugates. In a homogeneous VTI half space, Rayleigh wave displacement is significantly modified with a phase shift when rj changes from real to complex with variation of VTI parameters; at the transition, the displacement becomes zero when r1?=?r2. In a liquid layer over a VTI half space, Rayleigh waves are dispersive. Here, also Rayleigh wave displacement significantly modified with a phase shift when rj changes from real to complex with a decrease of period. At very low period, phase velocity of Rayleigh waves becomes less than P-wave velocity in the liquid layer giving rise to Scholte waves (interface waves). The amplitudes of Scholte waves with a VTI half space are found to be significantly larger than those with an isotropic half space.  相似文献   

10.
Variations of Earth’s oblateness (J 2) reflect a large scale mass redistribution within the Earth system. The climate effect causing J 2 interannual variations is still not clear, though previous studies indicated it may be related to EI Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, we have a new discovery of the significant Antarctic oscillation (AAO) signals in J 2 interannual variations, especially on 4–6 year scales based on cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis with 95% confidence test during 1979–2012. The results additionally indicate that the close phase relationship between J 2 and AAO (AAO leading J 2 variations by 3 ± 2 months in phase) is far superior to that between J 2 and ENSO/PDO on 4–6 year scales. In this work, we discuss, for the first time, a possible geophysical mechanism of AAO effecting J 2 variations. The investigations are based on the definition of AAO and its spatial–temporal behavior influencing the large-scale mass movement. Finally, an approximate quantitative estimate of the AAO imprint on J 2 with an emphasis on the atmospheric contribution is made.  相似文献   

11.
Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (Amax) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of Amax and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of Amax on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the Amax is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of Amax for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.  相似文献   

12.
Based on the Anapa (ANN) seismic station records of ~40 earthquakes (MW > 3.9) that occurred within ~300 km of the station since 2002 up to the present time, the source parameters and quality factor of the Earth’s crust (Q(f)) and upper mantle are estimated for the S-waves in the 1–8 Hz frequency band. The regional coda analysis techniques which allow separating the effects associated with seismic source (source effects) and with the propagation path of seismic waves (path effects) are employed. The Q-factor estimates are obtained in the form Q(f) = 90 × f 0.7 for the epicentral distances r < 120 km and in the form Q(f) = 90 × f1.0 for r > 120 km. The established Q(f) and source parameters are close to the estimates for Central Japan, which is probably due to the similar tectonic structure of the regions. The shapes of the source parameters are found to be independent of the magnitude of the earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.9–5.6; however, the radiation of the high-frequency components (f > 4–5 Hz) is enhanced with the depth of the source (down to h ~ 60 km). The estimates Q(f) of the quality factor determined from the records by the Sochi, Anapa, and Kislovodsk seismic stations allowed a more accurate determination of the seismic moments and magnitudes of the Caucasian earthquakes. The studies will be continued for obtaining the Q(f) estimates, geometrical spreading functions, and frequency-dependent amplification of seismic waves in the Earth’s crust in the other regions of the Northern Caucasus.  相似文献   

13.
The problem of estimating the time derivatives of the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field and forecasting the probability of the occurrence of perturbations that exceed a given threshold level (the over-threshold perturbations) arises in the applications concerned with the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). In this work, we consider the temporal and spatial structure of the Pi3 pulsations with quasi-periods of 102 to 103 s during which the auroral and subauroral stations of the IMAGE network record over-threshold values in the derivatives of the meridional (along the longitudinal circle) BX component and latitudinal (along the latitudinal circle) BY component. The extreme |dBX/dt| values mainly develop against the background of the Pi3 pulsations with a complex frequency content, whereas the extreme |dBY/dt| values appear when the buildup (decay) phases of the bay-like disturbance associated with the evolution of a substorm coincide with the respective phases of the field of pulsations. The conditions under which the derivatives |dBX/dt| and |dBY/dt| reach their over-threshold values are studied for subauroral latitudes by the technique of superposed epoch analysis. The extreme values of the derivatives most frequently occur during the main phase of moderate magnetic storms or beyond the storm—during high substorm activity under the conditions of a negative vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The probability of the occurrence of over-threshold values increases at high amplitudes of the Pi3 pulsations and depends on their spectral content. The problem of analyzing and forecasting the over-threshold |dBY/dt| perturbations is complicated by the fact that the scale of the perturbations is small along the lines of latitude and large along the meridians. This can result in GIC excitation in the North–South oriented electric power lines by the geomagnetic perturbations localized within a narrow band in longitude which can be missed during the measurements.  相似文献   

14.
An attempt has been made to study the behavior of nailed vertical excavations in medium dense to dense cohesionless soil under seismic conditions using a pseudo-dynamic approach. The effect of several parameters such as angle of internal friction of soil(Φ), horizontal(k_h) and vertical(k_v) earthquake acceleration coefficients, amplification factor(f_a), length of nails(L), angle of nail inclination(α) and vertical spacing of nails(S_v) on the stability of nailed vertical excavations has been explored. The limit equilibrium method along with a planar failure surface is used to derive the formulation involved with the pseudo-dynamic approach, considering axial pullout of the installed nails. A comparison of the pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic approaches has been established in order to explore the effectiveness of the pseudo-dynamic approach over pseudo-static analysis, since most of the seismic stability studies on nailed vertical excavations are based on the latter. The results are expressed in terms of the global factor of safety(FOS). Seismic stability, i.e., the FOS of nailed vertical excavations is found to decrease with increase in the horizontal and vertical earthquake forces. The present values of FOS are compared with those available in the literature.  相似文献   

15.
Earth’s bow shock is the result of interaction between the supersonic solar wind and Earth’s magnetopause. However, data limitations mean the model of the shape and position of the bow shock are based largely on near-Earth satellite data. The model of the bow shock in the distant magnetotail and other factors that affect the bow shock, such as the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) By, remain unclear. Here, based on the bow shock crossings of ARTEMIS from January 2011 to January 2015, new coefficients of the tail-flaring angle α of the Chao model (one of the most accurate models currently available) were obtained by fitting data from the middle-distance magnetotail (near-lunar orbit, geocentric distance -20RE>X>-50RE). In addition, the effects of the IMF By on the flaring angle α were analyzed. Our results showed that: (1) the new fitting coefficients of the Chao model in the middle-distance magnetotail are more consistent with the observed results; (2) the tail-flaring angle α of the bow shock increases as the absolute value of the IMF By increases. Moreover, positive IMF By has a greater effect than negative IMF By on flaring angle. These results provide a reference for bow shock modeling that includes the IMF By.  相似文献   

16.
Cushion is a layer of granular materials between the raft and the ground. The shear behavior of the interface between the cushion and the raft may influence the seismic performance of the superstructure. In order to quantify such influences, horizontal shear tests on the interfaces between different cushion materials and concrete raft under monotonic and cyclic loading were carried out. The vertical pressure P_v, material type and cushion thickness h_c were taken as variables. Conclusions include: 1) under monotonic loading, P_v is the most significant factor; the shear resistance P_(hmax) increases as P_v increases, but the normalized factor of resistance μ_n has an opposite tendency; 2) for the materials used in this study, μ_n varies from 0.40 to 0.70, the interface friction angle δ_s varies from 20° to 35°, while u_(max) varies from 3 mm to 15 mm; 3) under cyclic loading, the interface behavior can be abstracted as a "three-segment" back-bone curve, the main parameters include μ_n, the displacement u_1 and stiffness K_1 of the elastic stage, the displacement u_2 and stiffness K_2 of the plastic stage; 4) by observation and statistical analysis, the significance of different factors, together with values of K_1, K_2 and μ_n have been obtained.  相似文献   

17.
The hourly values of the F-layer critical frequency from the ionospheric sounder in Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) during the time interval from 1957 to 2010, comprising five solar cycles, were analyzed for the effects of the solar activity. The hourly time series were reduced to hourly monthly medians which in turn were used for fitting a single station foF2 monthly median model. Two functional approaches have been investigated: a statistical approach and a spectral approach. The solar flux F10.7 is used to model the dependence of foF2 on the solar activity and is incorporated into both models by a polynomial expression. The statistical model employs polynomial functions to fit the F-layer critical frequency while the spectral model is based on spectral decomposition of the measured data and offers a better physical interpretation of the fitting parameters. The daytime and nighttime foF2 values calculated by both approaches are compared during high and low solar activity. In general, the statistical model has a slightly lower uncertainty at the expense of the larger number of fitting parameters. However, the spectral approach is superior for modeling the periodic effects and performs better when comparing the results for high and low solar activity. Comparison with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2012) shows that both local models are better at describing the local values of the F-layer critical frequency.  相似文献   

18.
Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.  相似文献   

19.
During the ruptures of an earthquake,the strain energy.△E,.will be transferred into,at least,three parts,i.e..the seismic radiation energy(E_s),fracture energy(E_g),and frictional energy(E_f),that is,△E = E_s + E_g + E_f.Friction,which is represented by a velocity- and state-dependent friction law by some researchers,controls the three parts.One of the main parameters of the law is the characteristic slip displacement.D_c.It is significant and necessary to evaluate the reliable value of D_c from observed and inverted seismic data.Since D_c controls the radiation efficiency.η_R = E_s/(E_s+ E_g),the value of η_r is a good constraint of estimating D_c.Integrating observed data and inverted results of source parameters from recorded seismograms.the values of E_s and E_g of an earthquake can be measured,thus leading to the value of η_R.The constraint used to estimate the reliable value of D_c will be described in this work.An example of estimates of D_c.based on the observed and inverted values of source parameters of the September 20,1999 M_S 7.6 Chi-Chi(Ji-Ji).Taiwan region,earthquake will be presented.  相似文献   

20.
The characteristics and interplanetary excitation conditions of isolated bursts of Pi2 geomagnetic pulsations observed during the development of magnetospheric substorms (substorm Pi2) and in its absence (nonsubstorm Pi2) on the night side of the Earth are comparatively analyzed. It is shown that, regardless of the local time and season, the amplitude of isolated Pi2 substorm bursts is always higher than that of the nonsubstorm ones, and the periods and duration of the wave packets of substorm Pi2 bursts are less than those of nonsubstorms. Diurnal and seasonal variations in the characteristics of the two groups of Pi2 bursts differ in the form and position of maxima and minima. It is found that the start of excitation of isolated Pi2 bursts, during substorms and in its absence, is controlled by the preferred direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector perpendicular to the Sun–Earth line (angle θxB = arccos(Bx/B) → 90°). It is assumed that isolated Pi2 bursts of both groups are triggered by reorientation of the IMF vector in the ecliptic plane and the plane perpendicular to it ~15 min before their onset. The most likely source of midlatitude isolated Pi2 bursts during substorm development and in its absence are bursty bulk flows (BBFs) in the plasma sheet of the magnetospheric tail, the regularities of which coincide in many respects with the observed features of Pi2 bursts.  相似文献   

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