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1.
Comparing predicted and observed ground motions from subduction earthquakes in the Lesser Antilles 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This brief article presents a quantitative analysis of the ability of eight published empirical ground-motion prediction equations
(GMPEs) for subduction earthquakes (interface and intraslab) to estimate observed earthquake ground motions on the islands
of the Lesser Antilles (specifically Guadeloupe, Martinique, Trinidad, and Dominica). In total, over 300 records from 22 earthquakes
from various seismic networks are used within the analysis. It is found that most of the GMPEs tested perform poorly, which
is mainly due to a larger variability in the observed ground motions than predicted by the GMPEs, although two recent GMPEs
derived using Japanese strong-motion data provide reasonably good predictions. Analyzing separately the interface and intraslab
events does not significant modify the results. Therefore, it is concluded that seismic hazard assessments for this region
should use a variety of GMPEs in order to capture this large epistemic uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion prediction
for the Lesser Antilles. 相似文献
2.
Sinan Akkar Özkan Kale Ahmet Yakut Ulubey Çeken 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3439-3463
This study describes the methodology implemented to establish the ground-motion logic-tree for national probabilistic seismic hazard map of Turkey for shallow active crustal regions. The presented procedure provides quantitative information to guide the hazard experts while establishing the logic tree to capture the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion characterization. It uses non-data-driven and data-driven testing methods to identify and rank candidate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) under a specific ground-motion database. The candidate GMPEs are subjected to visual inspection and are classified into center, body and range (CBR) spectral estimates for a proper consideration of epistemic uncertainty. The GMPEs classified into CBR are then used in a suite of seismic hazard sensitivity analysis to establish the most suitable GMPE logic-tree whose spectral estimates are not biased by any one of the GMPEs in the logic-tree structure. The sensitivity analysis considers normalized spectral ordinates and is not manipulated by the spectral amplitudes. The proposed procedure is inherited from the relevant studies of the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME; www.efehr.org:8080/jetspeed/portal/emme.psml) regional seismic hazard project. This paper also highlights the similarities and differences in ground-motion characterization between EMME and our approach. 相似文献
3.
Current empirical ground-motion prediction equations for Europe and their application to Eurocode 8 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
The first ground-motion prediction equation derived from European and Middle Eastern strong-motion data was published more
than 30 years ago; since then strong-motion networks and the resulting databank of accelerograms in the region have expanded
significantly. Many equations for the prediction of peak ground-motion parameters and response spectral ordinates have been
published in recent years both for the entire Euro-Mediterranean and Middle Eastern region as well as for individual countries
within this region. Comparisons among empirical ground-motion models for these parameters, developed using large regional
datasets, do not support the hypothesis of there being significant differences in earthquake ground-motions from one area
of crustal seismicity to another. However, there are certain regions within Europe—affected by different tectonic regimes—for
which the existing pan-European equations may not be applicable. The most recent European equations make it possible to now
implement overdue modifications to the presentation of seismic design actions in Eurocode 8 that allow an improved approximation
to the target uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). Using these recent equations, this study outlines a new approach via which an
approximation to the UHS may be constructed using hazard maps calculated for peak ground velocity and the corner period T
D in addition to the maps for peak ground acceleration that underpin the current stipulations of Eurocode 8. 相似文献
4.
Alireza Eskandarinejad Hamid Zafarani Mojtaba Jahanandish 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(6):1629-1643
Estimation of ground-motion amplitudes of different hazard levels is of paramount importance in planning of urban development of any metropolis. Such estimation can be computed through a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). This paper concentrates on the PSHA of an area located in Shiraz city, southern Iran. The area includes whole of Shiraz city (i.e., one of the largest and most populous cities of Iran) and its outskirts. Conventional and Monte Carlo simulation-based approaches are utilized to perform the PSHA of the studied area. Two areal seismic source models are delineated, and thence seismicity parameters of all zones associated with their corresponding uncertainties are computed. Uncertainties in ground-motion prediction are accounted for via three ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) within the logic tree framework. These GMPEs are applied to estimate bedrock ground shaking (Vs30?=?760 m/s) for several return periods (i.e., 75, 475, 975, and 2475 years). In general, the results of the two abovementioned PSHA approaches show relatively similar results. However, the Monte Carlo simulation-based approach overpredicts bedrock spectral accelerations at periods of 0.4–2.5 s compared to the conventional PSHA approach for return periods of 475, 975, and 2475 years. 相似文献
5.
Ground-motion prediction equations for the intermediate depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Vladimir Sokolov Klaus-Peter Bonjer Friedemann Wenzel Bogdan Grecu Mircea Radulian 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2008,6(3):367-388
We present the regional ground-motion prediction equations for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV),
pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA), and seismic intensity (MSK scale) for the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes (SE-Carpathians)
and territory of Romania. The prediction equations were constructed using the stochastic technique on the basis of the regional
Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) source scaling and attenuation models and the generalised site amplification functions. Values
of considered ground motion parameters are given as the functions of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicentral distance.
The developed ground-motion models were tested and calibrated using the available data from the large Vrancea earthquakes.
We suggest to use the presented equations for the rapid estimation of seismic effect after strong earthquakes (Shakemap generation)
and seismic hazard assessment, both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. 相似文献
6.
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Teraphan Ornthammarath John Douglas Ragnar Sigbj?rnsson Carlo Giovanni Lai 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(4):931-953
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations
(GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground
motion and its variability at considered sites could be modelled by the selected GMPEs. Until now ground-motion variability
has been taken into account in PSHA by integrating over the standard deviation reported in GMPEs, which significantly affects
estimated ground motions, especially at very low probabilities of exceedance. To provide insight on this issue, ground-motion
variability in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where many ground-motion records are available, is assessed. Three statistical
methods are applied to separate the aleatory variability into source (inter-event), site (inter-site) and residual (intra-event
and intra-site) components. Furthermore, the current PSHA procedure that makes the ergodic assumption of equality between
spatially and temporal variability is examined. In contrast to the ergodic assumption, several recent studies show that the
observed ground-motion variability at an individual location is lower than that implied by the standard deviation of a GMPE.
This could imply a mishandling of aleatory uncertainty in PSHA by ignoring spatial variability and by mixing aleatory and
epistemic uncertainties in the computation of sigma. Station correction coefficients are introduced in order to capture site
effects at different stations. The introduction of the non-ergodic assumption in PSHA leads to larger epistemic uncertainty,
although this is not the same as traditional epistemic uncertainty modelled using different GMPEs. The epistemic uncertainty
due to the site correction coefficients (i.e. mean residuals) could be better constrained for future events if more information
regarding the characteristics of these seismic sources and path dependence could be obtained. 相似文献
7.
Seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral
accelerations [SA(T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making
use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion
models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively
reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment
(PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion
models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year
return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca
and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the
influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation
relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have
performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising
specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA(T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant
from SA(0.5 s) onwards. 相似文献
8.
Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe 总被引:9,自引:2,他引:7
Elise Delavaud Fabrice Cotton Sinan Akkar Frank Scherbaum Laurentiu Danciu Céline Beauval Stéphane Drouet John Douglas Roberto Basili M. Abdullah Sandikkaya Margaret Segou Ezio Faccioli Nikos Theodoulidis 《Journal of Seismology》2012,16(3):451-473
The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234?C3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard. 相似文献
9.
John Douglas 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2010,8(6):1515-1526
Due to the limited observational datasets available for the derivation of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) there
is always epistemic uncertainty in the estimated median ground motion. Because of the increasing quality and quantity of strong-motion
datasets it would be expected that the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction (related to lack of knowledge and
data) is decreasing. In this study the predicted median ground motions from over 200 GMPEs for various scenarios are plotted
against date of publication to examine whether the scatter in the predictions (a measure of epistemic uncertainty) is decreasing
with time. It is found that there are still considerable differences in predicted ground motions from the various GMPEs and
that the variation between estimates is not reducing although the ground motion estimated by averaging median predictions
is roughly constant. For western North America predictions for moderate earthquakes have show a high level of consistency
since the 1980s as do, but to a lesser extent, predictions for moderate earthquakes in Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle
East. A good match is observed between the predictions from GMPEs and the median ground motions based on observations from
similar scenarios. Variations in median ground motion predictions for stable continental regions and subduction zones from
different GMPEs are large, even for moderate earthquakes. The large scatter in predictions of the median ground motion shows
that epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction is still large and that it is vital that this is accounted for in seismic
hazard assessments. 相似文献
10.
Maria Cristina Arango Fleur O. Strasser Julian J. Bommer Douglas A. Hernández Jose M. Cepeda 《Journal of Seismology》2011,15(2):261-294
Subduction earthquakes along the Pacific Coast of Central America generate considerable seismic risk in the region. The quantification
of the hazard due to these events requires the development of appropriate ground-motion prediction equations, for which purpose
a database of recordings from subduction events in the region is indispensable. This paper describes the compilation of a
comprehensive database of strong ground-motion recordings obtained during subduction-zone events in Central America, focusing
on the region from 8 to 14° N and 83 to 92° W, including Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. More than 400 accelerograms
recorded by the networks operating across Central America during the last decades have been added to data collected by NORSAR
in two regional projects for the reduction of natural disasters. The final database consists of 554 triaxial ground-motion
recordings from events of moment magnitudes between 5.0 and 7.7, including 22 interface and 58 intraslab-type events for the
time period 1976–2006. Although the database presented in this study is not sufficiently complete in terms of magnitude–distance
distribution to serve as a basis for the derivation of predictive equations for interface and intraslab events in Central
America, it considerably expands the Central American subduction data compiled in previous studies and used in early ground-motion
modelling studies for subduction events in this region. Additionally, the compiled database will allow the assessment of the
existing predictive models for subduction-type events in terms of their applicability for the Central American region, which
is essential for an adequate estimation of the hazard due to subduction earthquakes in this region. 相似文献
11.
R. Secanell D. Bertil C. Martin X. Goula T. Susagna M. Tapia P. Dominique D. Carbon J. Fleta 《Journal of Seismology》2008,12(3):323-341
A unified probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Pyrenean region has been performed by an international team
composed of experts from Spain and France during the Interreg IIIA ISARD project. It is motivated by incoherencies between
the seismic hazard zonations of the design codes of France and Spain and by the need for input data to be used to define earthquake
scenarios. A great effort was invested in the homogenisation of the input data. All existing seismic data are collected in
a database and lead to a unified catalogue using a local magnitude scale. PSHA has been performed using logic trees combined
with Monte Carlo simulations to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. As an alternative to hazard calculation
based on seismic sources zone models, a zoneless method is also used to produce a hazard map less dependant on zone boundaries.
Two seismogenic source models were defined to take into account the different interpretations existing among specialists.
A new regional ground-motion prediction equation based on regional data has been proposed. It was used in combination with
published ground-motion prediction equations derived using European and Mediterranean data. The application of this methodology
leads to the definition of seismic hazard maps for 475- and 1,975-year return periods for spectral accelerations at periods
of 0 (corresponding to peak ground acceleration), 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1 and 2 s. Median and percentiles 15% and 85% acceleration
contour lines are represented. Finally, the seismic catalogue is used to produce a map of the maximum acceleration expected
for comparison with the probabilistic hazard maps. The hazard maps are produced using a grid of 0.1°. The results obtained
may be useful for civil protection and risk prevention purposes in France, Spain and Andorra. 相似文献
12.
New predictive equations for Arias intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Arias Intensity (Arias, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, pp 438–483, 1970) is an important measure of the strength of a ground motion,
as it is able to simultaneously reflect multiple characteristics of the motion in question. Recently, the effectiveness of
Arias Intensity as a predictor of the likelihood of damage to short-period structures has been demonstrated, reinforcing the
utility of Arias Intensity for use in both structural and geotechnical applications. In light of this utility, Arias Intensity
has begun to be considered as a ground-motion measure suitable for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and
earthquake loss estimation. It is therefore timely to develop predictive equations for this ground-motion measure. In this
study, a suite of four predictive equations, each using a different functional form, is derived for the prediction of Arias
Intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand. The provision of a suite of models is included to allow for epistemic uncertainty
to be considered within a PSHA framework. Coefficients are presented for four different horizontal-component definitions for
each of the four models. The ground-motion dataset for which the equations are derived include records from New Zealand crustal
earthquakes as well as near-field records from worldwide crustal earthquakes. The predictive equations may be used to estimate
Arias Intensity for moment magnitudes between 5.1 and 7.5 and for distances (both rjb and rrup) up to 300 km. 相似文献
13.
This work summarises the seismic hazard analysis performed for the complete characterisation of strong ground-motion at the site of the Itoiz dam (Western Pyrenees, Spain). The hazard analysis includes the compilation of a composite catalogue from French and Spanish agencies, the definition of an original hybrid seismogenic source model (including zones and major faults) and the selection of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Hazard results are provided as hazard curves and acceleration response spectra on rock for the 1000- and 5000-year return periods, which correspond respectively to the operating basis earthquake (OBE) and safety evaluation earthquake (SEE). The impact of truncating GMPEs at a number of standard deviations (epsilon) has been found not critical here for the return periods targeted. Subsequently, an analysis of the contribution of each source to total hazard and a hazard disaggregation analysis are performed in order to establish the earthquake-source parameters for both the OBE and SEE scenarios consistently with the seismotectonics of the region. The European Strong Motion database is then searched and a selection of records is proposed for each of the scenarios. Our results suggest that seismic hazard in the region is underestimated by the official Spanish seismic hazard map included in the current version of the code (NCSE-02), which is the reference document for the definition of seismic actions for dam projects in the whole Pyrenees. 相似文献
14.
Christophe Martin Gabriele Ameri David Baumont David Carbon Gloria Senfaute Jean-Michel Thiry Ezio Faccioli Jean Savy 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2477-2511
The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods. 相似文献
15.
We derive S-wave attenuation characteristics, earthquake source parameters and site amplification functions at seismic stations
used for earthquake early warning in the Irpinia–Basilicata region, using non-parametric spectral inversion of seismograms
from 49 local events with M
L = 1.5–3.1. We obtain relatively low Q values (Q
0 = 28 at a frequency of 1 Hz) in conjunction with a strong frequency-dependence (close to linear). The source spectra can
be satisfactorily modeled using the omega-square model, with stress drops ranging between 0.01–2 MPa, and in the narrow magnitude
range available for analysis, the source spectra seem to scale self-similarly. The local magnitude M
L shows a linear correlation with moment magnitude M
W, however with a systematic underestimation by about 0.5-magnitude units. The results obtained in this work provide important
insights into the ground-motion characteristics that are required for appropriate seismic hazard assessment and are of practical
relevance for a suite of applications, such as the calibration of ground-motion prediction equations or the correction for
site amplification in earthquake early warning and rapid calculation of shake-maps for seismic emergency management. 相似文献
16.
Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for inelastic displacement and ductility demands of constant-strength SDOF systems 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
The objective of this paper is to present ground-motion prediction equations for ductility demand and inelastic spectral displacement
of constant-strength perfectly elasto-plastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillators. Empirical equations have been developed
to compute the ductility demand as a function of two earthquake parameters; moment magnitude, and source-to-site distance;
one site parameter, the ground type; and three oscillator parameters, an undamped natural period, critical damping ratio,
and the mass-normalized yield strength. In addition, a comparative study of the proposed model with selected previous studies
and recommendations of Eurocode 8 is presented. Proposed equations can easily be incorporated in existing probabilistic seismic
hazard analysis (PSHA) software packages with the introduction of an additional parameter. This leads to hazard curves for
inelastic spectral displacement, which can provide better estimates of target displacement for nonlinear static procedures
and an efficient intensity measure for probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA). Proposed equations will be useful in
performance evaluation of existing structures. 相似文献
17.
Ground motion prediction equations based on shallow crustal earthquakes in Georgia and the surrounding Caucasus 下载免费PDF全文
Jorjiashvili Nato Shengelia Ia Godoladze Tea Gunia Irakli Akubardia Dimitri 《地震科学(英文版)》2022,35(6):497-509
Strong ground motions caused by earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 3.5 to 6.9 and hypocentral distances of up to 300 km were recorded by local broadband stations and three-component accelerograms within Georgia’s enhanced digital seismic network. Such data mixing is particularly effective in areas where strong ground motion data are lacking. The data were used to produce models based on ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), one benefit of which is that they take into consideration information from waveforms across a wide range of frequencies. In this study, models were developed to predict ground motions for peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudo-absolute-acceleration spectra for periods between 0.01 and 10 s. Short-period ground motions decayed faster than long-period motions, though decay was still in the order of approximately 1/r. Faulting mechanisms and local soil conditions greatly influence GMPEs. The spectral acceleration (SA) of thrust faults was higher than that for either strike-slip or normal faults but the influence of strike-slip faulting on SA was slightly greater than that for normal faults. Soft soils also caused significantly more amplification than rocky sites. 相似文献
18.
Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals 总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1
Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper
tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular,
the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high
and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists
of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε
max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether
a physical basis for choosing ε
max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion
models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of
causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible
to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain
direct physical constraints on ε
max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice
of ε
max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated
with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε
max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore,
the absolute truncation level implied by ε
max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε
max value impractical. 相似文献
19.
Sreeram Reddy Kotha Dino Bindi Fabrice Cotton 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(4):1245-1263
The ergodic assumption considers the time sampling of ground shaking generated in a given region by successive earthquakes as equivalent to a spatial sampling of observed ground motion across different regions. In such cases the estimated aleatory variability in source, propagation, and site seismic processes in ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is usually larger than with a non-ergodic approach. With the recently published datasets such as RESORCE for Europe and Middle-East regions, and exploiting algorithms like the non-linear mixed effects regression it became possible to introduce statistically well-constrained regional adjustments to a GMPE, thus ‘partially’ mitigating the impact of the assumption on regional ergodicity. In this study, we quantify the regional differences in the apparent attenuation of high frequency ground motion with distance and in linear site amplification with Vs30, between Italy, Turkey, and rest of the Europe-Middle-East region. With respect to a GMPE without regional adjustments, we obtain up to 10 % reduction in the aleatory variability σ, primarily contributed by a 20 % reduction in the between-station variability. The reduced aleatory variability is translated into an epistemic uncertainty, i.e. a standard error on the regional adjustments which can be accounted for in the hazard assessment through logic-tree branches properly weighted. Furthermore, the between-event variability is reduced by up to 30 % by disregarding in regression the events with empirically estimated moment magnitude. Therefore, we conclude that a further refinement of the aleatory variability could be achieved by choosing a combination of proxies for the site response, and through the homogenization of the magnitude scales across regions. 相似文献
20.
Criteria for Selecting and Adjusting Ground-Motion Models for Specific Target Regions: Application to Central Europe and Rock Sites 总被引:6,自引:2,他引:6
Fabrice Cotton Frank Scherbaum Julian J. Bommer Hilmar Bungum 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(2):137-156
A vital component of any seismic hazard analysis is a model for predicting the expected distribution of ground motions at a site due to possible earthquake scenarios. The limited nature of the datasets from which such models are derived gives rise to epistemic uncertainty in both the median estimates and the associated aleatory variability of these predictive equations. In order to capture this epistemic uncertainty in a seismic hazard analysis, more than one ground-motion prediction equation must be used, and the tool that is currently employed to combine multiple models is the logic tree. Candidate ground-motion models for a logic tree should be selected in order to obtain the smallest possible suite of equations that can capture the expected range of possible ground motions in the target region. This is achieved by starting from a comprehensive list of available equations and then applying criteria for rejecting those considered inappropriate in terms of quality, derivation or applicability. Once the final list of candidate models is established, adjustments must be applied to achieve parameter compatibility. Additional adjustments can also be applied to remove the effect of systematic differences between host and target regions. These procedures are applied to select and adjust ground-motion models for the analysis of seismic hazard at rock sites in West Central Europe. This region is chosen for illustrative purposes particularly because it highlights the issue of using ground-motion models derived from small magnitude earthquakes in the analysis of hazard due to much larger events. Some of the pitfalls of extrapolating ground-motion models from small to large magnitude earthquakes in low seismicity regions are discussed for the selected target region. 相似文献