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1.
In 2001, the four global change research programmes ‘urgently’ called for ‘an ethical framework for global stewardship and strategies for Earth System management’. Yet this notion of ‘earth system management’ remains vaguely defined: It is too elusive for natural scientists, and too ambitious or too normative for social scientists. In this article, I develop an alternative concept that is better grounded in social science theory: ‘earth system governance’. I introduce, first, the concept of earth system governance as a new social phenomenon, a political programme and a crosscutting theme of research in the field of global environmental change. I then sketch the five key problem structures that complicate earth system governance, and derive from these four overarching principles for earth system governance as political practice, namely credibility, stability, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness. In the last part of the article, I identify five research and governance challenges that lie at the core of earth system governance as a crosscutting theme in global change research. These are the problems of the overall architecture of earth system governance, of agency beyond the state, of the adaptiveness of governance mechanisms and of their accountability and legitimacy, and of the modes of allocation in earth system governance—in short, the five A's of earth system governance research.  相似文献   

2.
Despite growing global attention to the development of strategies and policy for climate change adaptation, there has been little allowance for input from Indigenous people. In this study we aimed to improve understanding of factors important in integration of Yolngu perspectives in planning adaptation policy in North East Arnhem Land (Australia). We conducted workshops and in-depth interviews in two ‘communities’ to develop insight into Yolngu peoples’ observations and perspectives on climate change, and their ideas and preferences for adaptation. All participants reported observing changes in their ecological landscape, which they attributed to mining, tourism ‘development’, and climate change. ‘Strange changes’ noticed particularly in the last five years, had caused concern and anxiety among many participants. Despite their concern about ecological changes, participants were primarily worried about other issues affecting their community's general welfare. The results suggest that strategies and policies are needed to strengthen adaptive capacity of communities to mitigate over-arching poverty and well-being issues, as well as respond to changes in climate. Participants believed that major constraints to strengthening adaptive capacity had external origins, at regional, state and federal levels. Examples are poor communication and engagement, top-down institutional processes that allow little Indigenous voice, and lack of recognition of Indigenous culture and practices. Participants’ preferences for strategies to strengthen community adaptive capacity tended to be those that lead towards greater self-sufficiency, independence, empowerment, resilience and close contact with the natural environment. Based on the results, we developed a simple model to highlight main determinants of community vulnerability. A second model highlights components important in facilitating discourse on enhancing community capacity to adapt to climatic and other stressors.  相似文献   

3.
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.  相似文献   

4.
An experimental study has been made of stagnation points and flow splitting on the upstream side of obstacles in uniformly stratified flow. A range from small to large values of Nh/U (where N is the buoyancy frequency, hm is the maximum obstacle height and U is the undisturbed fluid velocity) has been covered, for three obstacle shapes which are, respectively, axisymmetric, and elongated in the across-stream and in the downstream directions. Upstream stagnation for the first two of these models does not occur until Nhm/U > 1.05, where it occurs at z ≈ hm/2. On the central line below this point the flow descends and diverges, and we term this ‘flow splitting’. For the third model (elongated in the downstream direction), stagnation upstream first occurs at Nhm/U ≈ 1.43, at z ≈ 0. Results for this obstacle are not consistent with the ‘Sheppard criterion’, and this upstream flow stagnation is not apparently related to lee wave overturning, in contrast to flow over two-dimensional obstacles.  相似文献   

5.
The new climate discourse: Alarmist or alarming?   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
The discourse on climate change is in part divided between a sense of alarm and a sense of alarmism in assessments of the magnitude and urgency of the problem. The divide in the discourse among climatologists relates to tensions in the use of key phrases to describe climate change. This article reviews evidence to support claims that climate change can be viewed as ‘catastrophic’, ‘rapid’, ‘urgent’, ‘irreversible’, ‘chaotic’, and ‘worse than previously thought’. Each of these terms are imprecise and may convey a range of meaning. The method used here is to assess whether the conventional understandings of these terms are broadly consistent or inconsistent with the science, or else ambiguous. On balance, these terms are judged to be consistent with the science. Factors which divide climatologists on this discourse are also reviewed. The divide over a sense of urgency relates to disagreement on the manner and rate at which ice sheets breakdown in response to sustained warming. Whether this rate is fast or slow, the amount of time available to reduce emissions sufficient to prevent ice sheet breakdown is relatively short, given the moderate levels of warming required and the inertia of the climate and energy systems. A new discourse is emerging which underscores the scope of the problem and the scope and feasibility of solutions. This discourse differentiates itself from existing discourses which view the magnitudes of the problem or of solutions as prohibitive.  相似文献   

6.
This paper reports on the barriers that members of the UK public perceive to engaging with climate change. It draws upon three mixed-method studies, with an emphasis on the qualitative data which offer an in-depth insight into how people make sense of climate change. The paper defines engagement as an individual's state, comprising three elements: cognitive, affective and behavioural. A number of common barriers emerge from the three studies, which operate broadly at ‘individual’ and ‘social’ levels. These major constraints to individual engagement with climate change have implications for achieving significant reductions in greenhouse gases in the UK. We argue that targeted and tailored information provision should be supported by wider structural change to enable citizens and communities to reduce their carbon dependency. Policy implications for effective engagement are discussed.  相似文献   

7.
The UK is witnessing a new line in political debate around new nuclear energy generation as one potential feature of future energy policy, specifically for contributing to climate change mitigation alongside energy security. Little is known about how ordinary citizens might be responding to this reframing. This paper reports the results from a major British survey (n=1491) undertaken in the autumn of 2005. The consistent message is that while higher proportions of the British public are prepared to accept nuclear power if they believe it contributes to climate change mitigation, this is a highly conditional view, with very few actively preferring this over renewable sources given the choice. People see both climate change and nuclear power as problematic in terms of risks and express only a ‘reluctant acceptance’ of nuclear power as a ‘solution’ to climate change. The combined data from this survey can also be interpreted as an indication of the complexity surrounding beliefs about energy futures and the difficulty of undertaking simplistic risk–risk tradeoffs within any single framing of the issues; such as nuclear energy versus climate change. The results also indicate that it would be unwise, in the UK as elsewhere, to simplistically assume that there exists any single or stable public ‘opinion’ on such complex matters. We conclude with a discussion of the role and implications of the survey evidence for the policy process.  相似文献   

8.
Previous theoretical and laboratory studies of mechanically driven fluids in general rotation relative to an inertial frame have shown that there is a special class of flows for which the (Eulerian) flow field u(r, t) relative to the rotating frame of reference is unaffected by gyroscopic (Coriolis) forces, and therefore remains the same for all values of the rotation vector Ω. (Here t denotes time and r the position of a general point R in a reference frame attached to the rotating apparatus.) Such flows occur when (a) Ω is independent of time t; (b) u(r, t) is independent of the coordinate z (say) parallel to Ω, (c) the fluid has constant density and is therefore ‘barotropic’ (i.e. no density variations on horizontal surfaces) and (d) the topology of the cross-section of the (cylindrical) container, in planes z = constant, is such that the bounding surfaces can support the concomitant field of (kinematic) pressure P1 satisfying P1 + 2 Ω × U = 0 Condition (d) is equivalent to the requirement that any fluid sources or siks within the system be multipole in character, but not monopole. In the present study the ‘baroclinic’ case is treated, where buoyancy forces due to the action of gravity (and centripetal forces) on horizontal density variations have to be taken into account. These include investigations of flows due entirely to buoyancy forces, such as thermal convection in fluids in rotating cylindrical containers of various shapes and topological characteristics subject to horizontal temperature gradients. The implications for the impressed temperature field of the mathematical requirements that the fields of kinematic pressure P1 and density (where denotes the mean density) be everywhere single-valued are guiding such investigations and facilitating the interpretation of their findings. The investigations include laboratory studies, reported elsewhere, of convection in a rotating fluid annulus with a circular cross-section blocked by a radial barrier, where it is found inter alia that advective heat transfer is virtually independent of |Ω| over a wide range of conditions. They also include (as yet unpublished) studies of thermal convection in rotating systems with topologically triply connected cross-sections which can be rendered doubly or simply connected by the insertation of suitable barriers.  相似文献   

9.
A new statistical two-point closure EDQNM (Eddy Damped Quasi Normal Markovian) model for axisymmetric stratified turbulence is presented. This model takes into account the detailed anisotropic structure of the flow, including angular dependence, and its closure assumption may involve explicit effects of the stratification. In the present paper, a simplified closure assumption is used, in which these explicit effects are not taken into account. The model is tested against three-dimensional direct numerical simulations (DNS) of decaying homogeneous stratified turbulence. A very good agreement is found between DNS results and EDQNM predictions, when energy transfers between the different modes of motion are considered. However, transfers among wavenumbers are insufficiently damped by the EDQNM model, because of the simplified closure assumption, thus yielding a somewhat less satisfactory agreement. An interesting prediction of the EDQNM model is the existence of a ‘directional’ anisotropy at all scales of motion, to the smallest: the level of the total (kinetic + potential) energy density spectrum E(k,θk) varies with the angle θk that the wavenumber vector k makes with the vertical.  相似文献   

10.
An exact model to describe submesoscale, coherent vortices in a uniformly stratified fluid is presented. The model allows for stratification of the eddy interior, so as to agree with observations. The closed set of equations governing the evolution of the eddy on the F-plane is derived. In the case that the interior isopycnal surfaces remain horizontal the stratified analogue of the ‘rodon’, a special solution of the ‘lens equations’ that govern the evolution of uniform-density, warm-core surface eddies, is obtained.  相似文献   

11.
Sensitivity of evapotranspiration E and root zone soil moisture content θ to the parameterization of soil water retention Ψ(θ) and soil water conductivity K(Ψ), as well as to the definition of field capacity soil moisture content, is investigated by comparing Psi1-PMSURF and Theta-PMSURF models. The core of PMSURF (Penman–Monteith Surface Fluxes) consists of a 3-layer soil moisture prediction module based on Richard’s equation in combination with the Penman–Monteith concept for estimating turbulent heat fluxes. Psi1- PMSURF and Theta-PMSURF differ only in the parameterization of the moisture availability function Fma. In Psi1,Fma is parameterized by using Ψ(θ) and K(Ψ) hydrophysical functions; in Theta, Fma is parameterized by using hydrophysical parameters: the field capacity θf and wilting point θw soil moisture contents. Both Psi1 and Theta are based on using soil hydrophysical data, that is, there is no conceptual difference between them in the parameterization of E even if in Psi1Fma depends on 12 parameters, while in Theta only on two soil/vegetation parameters. Sensitivity tests are performed using the Cabauw dataset. Three soil datasets are used: the vG (van Genuchten), CH/vG (Clapp and Hornberger/van Genuchten) and CH/PILPS (Clapp and Hornberger/Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes) datasets. The vG dataset is used in van Genuchten’s parameterization, while in Clapp and Hornberger’s the CH/vG and CH/PILPS datasets are used. It is found that the consistency of soil hydrophysical data in the simulation of transpiration is quite important. The annual sum of E obtained by Psi1EPsi1, differs from the annual sum of E obtained by Theta, ETheta, because of the inconsistency between the fitting parameters of Ψ(θ) and K(Ψ) and the θf, and not because of the differencies in the parameterization of Fma. Further, θf can be estimated not only on the basis of using soil hydrophysical functions (the θf so obtained is θSoilf) but also on the basis of analysing the transpiration process (the θfso obtained is θtrf). θtrf values estimated from the condition ETheta ≈ EPsi1 are in acceptable accordance with the θSoilf values proposed by Wösten and co-workers. The results are useful in optimizing the parameterization of transpiration in land-surface schemes.  相似文献   

12.
In much of sub-Saharan Africa, considerable research exists on the impacts of climate change on social-ecological systems. Recent adaptation studies emphasize sectoral vulnerability and largely physical adaptation strategies that mirror anti-desertification plans. The adaptive role of subsistence farmers, the vulnerable ‘target’ population, is largely overlooked. This article aims to fill this gap by putting the views from the vulnerable in the center of the analysis. Drawing from participatory risk ranking and scoring among smallholders in central Senegal, data on multiple hazards indicate that farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate change is undermined by poor health, rural unemployment, and inadequate village infrastructure. Results from conceptual mapping reveal incomplete understanding of causes and consequences of climate change. Yet, shared knowledge and lessons learned from previous climatic stresses provide vital entry points for social learning and enhanced adaptive capacity to both wetter and drier periods now and in the future.  相似文献   

13.
This article deals with climate change from a linguistic perspective. Climate change is an extremely complex issue that has exercised the minds of experts and policy makers with renewed urgency in recent years. It has prompted an explosion of writing in the media, on the internet and in the domain of popular science and literature, as well as a proliferation of new compounds around the word ‘carbon’ as a hub, such as ‘carbon indulgence’, a new compound that will be studied in this article. Through a linguistic analysis of lexical and discourse formations around such ‘carbon compounds’ we aim to contribute to a broader understanding of the meaning of climate change. Lexical carbon compounds are used here as indicators for observing how human symbolic cultures change and adapt in response to environmental threats and how symbolic innovation and transmission occurs.  相似文献   

14.
Climate change raises many questions with strong moral and ethical dimensions that are important to address in climate-policy formation and international negotiations. Particularly in the United States, the public discussion of these dimensions is strongly influenced by religious groups and leaders. Over the past few years, many religious groups have taken positions on climate change, highlighting its ethical dimensions. This paper aims to explore these ethical dimensions in the US public debate in relation to public support for climate policies. It analyzes in particular the Christian voices in the US public debate on climate change by typifying the various discourses. Three narratives emerge from this analysis: ‘conservational stewardship’ (conserving the ‘garden of God’ as it was created), ‘developmental stewardship’ (turning the wilderness into a garden as it should become) and ‘developmental preservation’ (God's creation is good and changing; progress and preservation should be combined). The different narratives address fundamental ethical questions, dealing with stewardship and social justice, and they provide proxies for public perception of climate change in the US. Policy strategies that pay careful attention to the effects of climate change and climate policy on the poor – in developing nations and the US itself – may find support among the US population. Religious framings of climate change resonate with the electorates of both progressive and conservative politicians and could serve as bridging devices for bipartisan climate-policy initiatives.  相似文献   

15.
A systematic investigation of the effects of various parametrizations of dissipation, e.g. quadratic and linear frictional drag, harmonic lateral viscosity, and harmonic lateral diffusion on inertial flow over a sill and possible hydraulic control is presented. Rotation effects are ignored and the geometry is assumed to vary only slowly with downstream distance so that the flow may be considered one-dimensional. Results are given both for a single-active layer and for two-active layers with a rigid lid.If the parametrization is only a function of the dependent variables and not of their spatial derivatives, then it may be possible to hydraulically control the flow. A general expression is derived for the possible control point and the two gradients there, which are functions of the slope and possibly of flow rate. Specific energy is irreversibly removed from the flow and non-controlled as well as controlled flows can exhibit significant asymmetry in fluid depth over a sill. The upstream specific energy, and hence depth of the lower layer, of the controlled flow is greater than for an ideal fluid. Frictional effects modify the behaviour of long gravity waves, such that they are dispersive and damped with time. The system will only exhibit hydraulic control if these effects are small.For a viscous single layer of fluid, the gradient in surface elevation is always uniquely defined, so classically defined hydraulic control, as such, cannot exist. However, for values of non-dimensional lateral eddy viscosity coefficient, , where q is the flow rate, there is a narrow band of specific energies centred around that for the control solution in an ideal fluid, Ecrit, for which the surface elevation, h is very asymmetric over the sill; the solutions resemble the inviscid, hydraulically controlled solutions. Outside this range, either the fluid depth tends to zero, or the surface elevation is almost uniform over the sill. A ‘control’-type solution exists which has the conjugate values of the inviscid equation up- and downstream of the sill, where the gradient in fluid depth, and hence the viscous term, is zero. For larger values of AM, the band of specific energies is much wider, and the upstream specific energy of the ‘control’-type solution is much lower than that for an inviscid fluid. Long gravity waves are dispersive and damped with time. There is a short-wave cut-off, k2 > h/(4AM2), above which waves are stationary in the flow. Longer waves, k2 h/(4AM2), are critical if , as for an ideal fluid. If these waves can propagate significant distances, then any observed asymmetry in h will be due to inertial and not to viscous effects. The behaviour of unidirectional, two-layer flow is similar. The governing equation for viscous, two-layer exchange flow is singular, and typically excludes the ‘control’-type solutions found for unidirectional flows.Establishing the existence and behaviour of steady inertial flows in the presence of lateral diffusion between layers is more difficult. It significantly alters the single-layer solutions once the non-dimensional coefficient AH is large, i.e. . The flow rate may become zero on the downslope as all the fluid diffuses into the inert, infinitely deep, overlaying layer. The fluid depth is maintained by reverse flow from downstream. In this case, the depth of the active layer tends to zero downstream for all values of specific energy. For two-layer flow, both unidirectional and exchange, the governing equation is such that the lower-layer flow rate and interfacial height return to their upstream values.Motivation for the study is provided by the increasingly fine spatial resolution achievable in large-scale numerical models of the ocean general circulation, and the question of whether they are capable of simulating some form of hydraulic control. Application to modelling oceanic flows over a sill is discussed.  相似文献   

16.
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17.
The Sundqvist parameterization for warm rain production by autoconversion processes as the function of cloud liquid water mixing ratio m is tested by defining a realistic ‘driving’ profile m(z) for a maritime low, warm stratocumulus cloud, and comparing with various recent observations. The results show that the parameterization is acceptable, especially after tuning its rain collection constant C1. It is somewhat sensitive to the vertical resolution of the host model, though. Extending the calculations by considering typical cloud and raindrop size spectra, extra variables such as drizzle amounts and droplet effective radii (forced by the bulk Sundqvist rain rates) could be estimated by numerical integration. Also, these seem to agree fairly well with the available observations.  相似文献   

18.
The development and use of indicators is common practice in efforts to promote urban sustainability. Indicators used to measure urban sustainability tend to focus narrowly on describing the current state of the urban system. Although a time series analysis using these indicators may lend insights into trends towards or away from certain ‘sustainability’ goals, existing indicators of urban sustainability do not provide information on the ability or the likelihood that the current system state can be maintained or improved over time. Indicators that incorporate a measure of system resilience would provide useful information on system sustainability. Through development of a new indicator, Water Provision Resilience (WPR), we provide an example of how measures of resilience could be incorporated into sustainability indicators. The new indicator adds six color codings to the existing indicator ‘percent of the population with access to safe water.’ Each color coding represents a measure of the ability of the water system to maintain or improve the current percent of the population with access to safe water in key areas of the water provision sector: supply, infrastructure, service provision, finances, water quality and governance. The metric is then applied to three cities. The goal in developing this metric is to provide a starting point for re-thinking the metrics used to measure progress and sustainability in order to incorporate the ability to absorb and adapt to stresses into sustainability analysis.  相似文献   

19.
A laboratory study of scalar diffusion in the convective boundary layer has found results that are consistent with a 1999 large-eddy simulation (LES) study by Jonker, Duynkerke and Cuijpers. For bottom-up and top-down scalars (introduced as ‘infinite’ area sources of passive tracer at the surface and inversion, respectively) the dominant length scale was found to be much larger than the length scale for density fluctuations, the latter being equal to the boundary-layer depth h. The variance of the normalized passive scalar grew continuously with time and its magnitude was about 3–5 times larger for the top-down case than for the bottom-up case. The vertical profiles of the normalized passive scalar variance were found to be approximately constant through the convective boundary layer (CBL) with a value of about 3–8c*2 for bottom-up and 10–50c*2 for top-down diffusion. Finally, there was some evidence of a minimum in the variance and dominant length scale for scalar flux ratios (top-down to bottom-up flux) close to −0.5. All these convection tank results confirm the LES results and support the hypothesis that there is a distinct difference in behaviour between the dynamic and passive variables in the CBL.  相似文献   

20.
Analyses of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations (cm− 3) measured at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station, near Carna, County Galway, Ireland, using a DH Associates Model M1 static thermal diffusion cloud chamber over the period from March 1994 to September 2002 are presented in this work. Air masses are defined as being ‘marine’ if they originate from a wind direction of 180–300° and ‘continental’ air masses are defined as originating from a wind direction of 45–135°. Air masses without such filtering were classified as ‘undefined’ air masses. Air masses were found to be dominated by marine sector air, re-affirming Mace Head as a baseline atmospheric research station. CCN levels for specific air masses at Mace Head were found to be comparable with earlier studies both at Mace Head and elsewhere. Monthly averaged clean marine (wind direction of 180–300° and black carbon absorption coefficient < 1.425 Mm− 1) CCN and marine CCN varied between 15–247 cm− 3 and 54–670 cm− 3, respectively. As expected, significant increases in number concentration were found in continentally sourced CCN over that of marine CCN and were found to follow a log-normal distribution significantly tighter than that of clean marine air masses. No significant trend was found for CCN over the 9-year period. While polluted continental air masses showed a slight increase in CCN concentrations over the winter months, most likely due to increased fuel usage and a lower mixed boundary layer, the dominance of marine sector air arriving at Mace Head, which generally consists of background CCN concentrations, reduced seasonal differences for polluted air. Marine air showed a distinct seasonal pattern, with elevated values occurring over the spring and summer seasons. This is thought to be due to enhanced biogenic aerosol production as a result of phytoplankton bloom activity in the North Atlantic.  相似文献   

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